Wednesday, 8 October 2025

US Government Still Shut, Yawn. Gold Soaring. More Boeing Trouble.

Baltic Dry Index. 1947 +15           Brent Crude 65.90

Spot Gold 4050                  US 2 Year Yield 3.57 -0.03

US Federal Debt. 37.837 trillion

US GDP 30.316 trillion.

"From a strictly economic point of view, buying gold in a major inflation and holding it probably presents the least risk of capital loss of any investment or speculation."

Henry Hazlitt

In mid-March the spot gold price in US dollars first reached USD 3,000. Today in Asia it traded at USD 4,000 a troy ounce for the first time. We’ve come a long way from the Great Nixonian Error of fiat money, August 15, 1971 when spot gold was trading about USD 41.00.

There are many suggested reasons for the current gold rally. I think it has to do with the now weaponised dollar reserve standard incentivising many to look for alternatives; President Trump’s global tariffs anarchy, and finally as a hedge against the Great US AI Bubble ending badly.

Will the US central bank and the US Treasury have to monetise the aftermath, which I think highly likely?

Spot gold prices hit $4,000 for the first time as global uncertainty fuels safe-haven demand

Published Tue, Oct 7 2025 7:51 PM EDT

Spot gold prices on Wednesday hit $4,000 for the first time as safe‑haven demand continues to drive the yellow metal’s prices higher.

The latest rise “likely reflects safe‑haven demand tied to the U.S. government shutdown and the resignation of Sebastien Lecornu as France’s prime minister,” Vivek Dhar, head of commodities at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said in a note.

That comes after a summer that saw U.S. tariff-led uncertainty rock the global economy.

Asia-Pacific stock markets, meanwhile, traded flat Wednesday, breaking ranks from Wall Street losses, after the World Bank raised the region’s growth forecast Tuesday.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index slid 1.01%.

CF PharmTech shares surged over 224% in their Hong Kong trading debut. CF PharmTech is a specialty pharmaceutical company, focused especially on respiratory diseases.

CF PharmTech had raised around $78 million, with shares priced at HKD$14.75 apiece. PharmTech’s listing comes amid a resurgence in Hong Kong’s IPO market this year that has collectively raised about $14.1 billion in the first half of this year.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 was little changed, while the the Topix added 0.66%. The Japanese yen weakened 0.38% to 152.48 against the greenback after sliding to the 150-level Monday.

Australia’s ASX/S&P 200 fell 0.3%.

Mainland China and South Korean markets are closed for the holidays.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand trimmed its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 2.5%.

“Economic activity through the middle of 2025 was weak. In part, this reflects domestic constraints on the supply of goods and services in some industries, and the impact of global economic policy uncertainty,” the bank said in a media release. The New Zealand dollar weakened 0.9% to 0.5746 per dollar.

The Bank of Thailand is also set to release its policy decisions later in the day.

Overnight in the U.S., the three major averages closed lower. The S&P 500 struggled Tuesday, bogged down by a drop in Oracle shares as investors worry about the profitability of the artificial intelligence trade. Wall Street also looked for more developments out of Washington with the U.S. government shutdown in its second week.

The broad market index pulled back 0.38% to close at 6,714.59, snapping a 7-day winning streak, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.67% to finish at 22,788.36. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 91.99 points, or 0.2%, to end at 46,602.98.

Asia-Pacific markets: Nikkei 225, Hang Seng Index

In other news, more trouble for Boeing.

Airbus A320 overtakes Boeing 737 for most deliveries in history

7 October 2025

Europe’s Airbus broke a major commercial barrier on Tuesday when its A320 family of planes overtook the Boeing 737 to become the most-delivered jetliner in history.

Boeing’s decades-old record fell with the handover of an A320neo model overnight to Saudi carrier Flynas, bringing total deliveries to 12,260 since the A320 series entered service in 1988, according to benchmark data from UK-based aviation analytics firm Cirium.

Airbus and Boeing did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the data, tracked by leading aircraft supply analyst Rob Morris.

Demand for the industry’s workhorse A320 and 737 jets has surged in recent years, as economic growth led by Asia brought tens of millions of new middle-class travelers into the skies.

More

Airbus A320 overtakes Boeing 737 for most deliveries in history - The Globe and Mail

Air India's midair emergency sparks new alarm over the safety of the Boeing Dreamliner

6 October 2025

India’s leading body of pilots has asked the civil aviation regulator to inspect all Boeing 787 Dreamliners operating in the country for electrical issues after one of the planes abruptly deployed an emergency power system midair over the weekend.

The device, a small propeller that acts as a backup generator and which is known as the ram air turbine, or RAT, normally would be activated when an aircraft's engines lose power, its hydraulic systems register critically low pressure or its electrical systems fail.

However, the RAT engaged unexpectedly on Saturday aboard Air India flight 117 from the northern Indian city of Amritsar moments before it landed safely in Birmingham, England.

The Federation of Indian Pilots, which represents about 6,000 pilots, asked for the investigation Sunday evening.

Air India, owned by business conglomerate Tata Group, said in a statement that an initial inspection following the weekend incident found that “all electrical and hydraulic parameters were normal” and that the aircraft landed safely.

The midair deployment of the emergency device has reignited concerns in India over the safety of the Dreamliner. In June, an Air India Boeing 787 Dreamliner bound for London crashed in the northwestern city of Ahmedabad, killing 260 people including 19 on the ground, in one of India’s worst aviation disasters.

A preliminary report into the June 12 crash found that the fuel control switches for the engines were moved from the “run” to the “cutoff” position moments before impact, starving both engines of fuel. The RAT system activated as it was supposed to have done when the plane lost power and engine thrust, the report said.

Charanvir Singh Randhawa, president of the Federation of Indian Pilots, said that he'd never heard of the RAT system being deployed even when there are no problems in the engines, hydraulics or electrical systems, as appeared to be the case over the weekend. "It’s a serious concern that warrants a detailed inquiry,” he said.

Randhawa, whose career spans five decades in aviation, wrote an email to India’s Directorate General of Civil Aviation on Sunday, apprising it of the incident and urging an investigation into the electrical systems of all Boeing Dreamliners operating in India.

A spokesman for India’s Civil Aviation Ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment, and a spokeswoman for Boeing India was not immediately available for comment.

Air India's midair emergency sparks new alarm over the safety of the Boeing Dreamliner

Approx. 22 minutes.

Air India Crash - Maintenance Before & After #airindiacrash

Air India Crash - Maintenance Before & After #airindiacrash

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Germany's industrial orders unexpectedly slip for 4th straight month

7 October 2025

FRANKFURT (Reuters) -German industrial orders fell for a fourth straight month in August, dragged lower mainly by a weak car industry and a decline in overseas demand, the federal statistics office said on Tuesday.

The office reported that incoming orders in the manufacturing sector were down 0.8% on the previous month on a seasonally and calendar-adjusted basis. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a rise of 1.1% on average.

The statistics office said orders for exports fell by 4.1% in August, with orders from the eurozone falling by 2.9% and by 5% from outside the eurozone. Domestic orders rose by 4.7%.

Germany's industrial orders unexpectedly slip for 4th straight month

Fed Officials May Shine Some Light on the Economy Amid Lack of Government Data Due to Shutdown

Without official data releases, markets and businesses may have to rely on comments from the Federal Reserve this week.
Oct. 6, 2025, at 9:54 a.m.

As the government shutdown enters its second week, the closure of some federal agencies leaves investors and economists in the dark as to where the economy is or might be headed.

In the meantime, the dreaded word “stagflation” is back on the table, where a combination of a stagnant labor market and persistent inflation creates a vexing problem for the Federal Reserve. If it eases interest rates to keep the job market afloat, it runs the risk of bolstering inflation with a spark to consumption.

As it happens, the Fed is not shuttered and there will be several speeches and appearances by top officials of the central bank, including Chairman Jerome Powell, this week. And the minutes of the last Fed monetary policy meeting are due out on Wednesday.

Friday will also provide a take on the mind of the consumer, when the University of Michigan issues its consumer sentiment survey for October. Recent surveys have shown a sour consumer yet one who continues to spend money.

“We are experiencing ‘stagflation,’” economist Hugh Johnson wrote. “The employment numbers are the ‘stag’ and they do appear to be deteriorating. Nonfarm payroll employment has declined from average monthly gains of 111,000 in the first quarter to 55,000 in the second quarter to -17,000 in the third quarter.”

“At the same time there is the ‘flation’ in ‘stagflation,’” Johnson added. “The general expectation is that the personal consumption price index will increase about 2.8% in the third quarter and rise to 3.0% in the fourth quarter (perhaps in response to tariff-driven price increases).”

Lower borrowing costs appear to be an answer to the first half of the problem, with the Fed cutting interest rates by a quarter point last month and markets predicting two more cuts before the end of the year.

“Lower rates are good for activity, but it will be at least another year before households and businesses will be able to enjoy the fruits of easy monetary policy settings,” Doug Peta, chief U.S. investment strategist for BCA Research, wrote Monday morning.

That is why markets will be watching the release of the Fed minutes to glean how much officials are worried about the weakening labor market and how aggressive they might be in trying to counter it. Stocks have run up sharply in anticipation of more rate cuts, yet the September Fed meeting’s projections of where interest rates may be showed a wide disparity of opinion.

For now, investors will be watching corporate earnings reports for the third quarter, which begin this week.

“Earnings season begins this week and we expect most companies to surprise to the upside, which will likely be the next upward catalyst for stocks,” said Robert Edwards, chief investment officer at Edwards Asset Management. “Companies have figured out how to navigate all of the macro uncertainty we have seen this year.”

Meanwhile, there appears to be little prospect for a quick fix to the standoff on Capitol Hill, although some say Oct. 15 could be a date to watch as that is when active-duty military members could lose their first paychecks if the shutdown is still ongoing. It also happens to be when the consumer price index for September, the benchmark measure of inflation, would be released if the government were open.

Fed Officials May Shine Some Light on the Economy Amid Lack of Government Data Due to Shutdown | Personal Finance | U.S. News

If a government resorts to inflation, that is, creates money in order to cover its budget deficits or expands credit in order to stimulate business, then no power on earth, no gimmick, device, trick or even indexation can prevent its economic consequences.

Henry Hazlitt

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

iPhone and Android alert - all battery pack owners issued with urgent advice after ban

October 4, 2025

Portable battery packs - or so-called power banks - have become increasingly popular in recent years. Millions of us now have them tucked in our backpacks just in case that battery light on our iPhones or Android devices starts flashing red. They are also handy for long trips on trains and planes, when our smartphones are often used to watch movies and play games - two tasks that can make a serious dent in the power percentage.

A battery pack is clearly a good investment, but owning one does come with a warning. Power banks contain lithium-ion batteries, which, if damaged, can create aggressive fires that can release highly toxic fumes - a process known as thermal runaway.

These phone accessories can be a big risk if not bought from a reputable retailer or aren't looked after properly.

One airline is now so concerned about these gadgets that it's banning them from being used when in the air. Emirates states that its customers can still carry battery packs, but they must not charge their devices during flights.

"Using any kind of power bank is prohibited onboard Emirates' flights, effective from 1 October 2025," Emirates confirmed.

More

iPhone and Android alert - all battery pack owners issued with urgent advice after ban

13 airlines ban power banks after spike in lithium fires

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates —

Emirates passengers passing through Dubai can no longer recharge their phones with personal power banks once their flight takes off. The Gulf carrier has announced that, beginning October 1, 2025, travelers will have to keep the devices switched off and stowed, the latest move in a widening industry response to lithium battery fires in the cabin.

Why the new Emirates power-bank rule matters

Lithium batteries have become aviation’s biggest fire hazard, with incidents ranging from smoking cabin bags to full-scale cargo fires. Emirates said the spike in occurrences led to a formal risk assessment covering all of its fleet types. In a prepared statement, the airline noted the “significant growth in customers using power banks in recent years,” adding that the new restriction “will significantly reduce risks associated with power banks by prohibiting their use while onboard the aircraft.” The prohibition applies to every class of service—First, Business and Economy—and covers flights across Emirates’ entire route map. Passengers may still bring power banks on board, but the gadgets must remain disconnected from other electronics for the duration of the flight and placed in an easily reachable spot such as the seat-back pocket or personal under-seat bag. Cabin crew will continue to make the standard pre-departure announcement reminding travelers to alert staff if a battery overheats.

Thirteen airlines now enforce an in-flight power-bank ban

Before Emirates adopted the measure, 12 carriers—mainly in East and Southeast Asia—had already issued similar policies. According to reporting by Birmingham Live, the roster includes Singapore Airlines, EVA Air, Thai Airways, AirAsia, Air Busan, China Airlines, Korean Air, Cathay Pacific, Hong Kong Airlines, Tigerair, Starlux and Asiana. Together with Emirates, the tally now stands at 13 airlines. Most of those carriers require passengers to carry spare lithium batteries and power banks in hand luggage, mirroring International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) guidance. However, their policies differ on watt-hour limits and whether power banks can remain connected during taxi, takeoff and landing. Emirates has opted for the strictest interpretation: no charging at any time from gate to gate.

More

13 airlines ban power banks after spike in lithium fires

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

"The great merit of gold is precisely that it is scarce; that its quantity is limited by nature; that it is costly to discover, to mine, and to process; and that it cannot be created by political fiat or caprice."

Henry Hazlitt

No comments:

Post a Comment