Friday, 17 October 2025

Is The Global Economy Rolling Over? More First Brands Fallout.

Baltic Dry Index. 2046 +49      Brent Crude 61.08

Spot Gold 4379            US 2 Year Yield 3.41 -0.09

US Federal Debt. 37.875 trillion

US GDP 30.335 trillion.

Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the Capitalistic System was to debauch the currency. . . Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million can diagnose.

John Maynard Keynes

In the stock casinos, the collapse of the First Brands cockroach is finally sinking in. During a mania, no one cares much about lending standards and fraud becomes rife if unnoticed.

But when the boom turns to unexpected bust, the cockroaches start pouring out in droves. Credit tightens sharply, a hypothecation scandal emerges.

Everyone affected demands a central bank bailout. Gold soars.

South Korea’s Kospi hits fresh record high for third straight day on optimism over trade talks

Published Thu, Oct 16 2025 7:48 PM EDT

South Korea’s Kospi hit a record high for the third straight day Friday, as trade talks continued with the U.S., bucking wider losses in Asia.

The Kospi was the only market in positive territory, touching an intraday high of 3,794.87. Meanwhile, the Kosdaq gave up earlier gains, falling near the flatline.

Other Asia-Pacific markets traded weaker, tracking losses on Wall Street as fears over the banking sector and trade tensions intensified.

Shares of regional banks and investment bank Jefferies tumbled Thursday stateside as fears mounted around some bad loans lurking in the U.S.

Shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. fell 1.35% Friday. The chip heavyweight posted a third-quarter earnings beat after Taiwan’s market closed Thursday.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 1.6%, leading losses in Asia and dragged by educational and tech stocks.

Notably, Chinese automaker BYD’s stocks fell about 2.5% after Reuters reported that the carmaker will conduct its largest recall of 115,000 vehicles due to design defects and battery-related issues.

The CSI 300 on the mainland was down 1.27%.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 1.32%, while the broad-based Topix fell 0.94%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down 0.78%.

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports posted a sharp rebound in September, jumping 6.9% from a year earlier, defying expectations of a 2.1% drop and reversing an 11.3% fall in August.

U.S. stock futures were slightly lower on Thursday night stateside after the previous session saw a sell-off fueled by concerns about regional banks’ loan practices.

Overnight in the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 301.07 points, or nearly 0.7%, to close at 45,952.24. Earlier in the day, the 30-stock index had gained 170 points.

The S&P 500 finished 0.6% lower at 6,629.07, giving up a 0.6% gain at the highs of the session. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.5% to settle at 22,562.54.

South Korea's Kospi hit fresh record high as trade talks continue

Stock futures are slightly lower after regional bank worries fuel market sell-off: Live updates

Updated Fri, Oct 17 2025 7:33 PM EDT

U.S. stock futures were slightly lower on Thursday night after the previous session saw a sell-off fueled by concerns about regional banks’ loan practices.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 84 points, or 0.2%. S&P futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both fell more than 0.3%.

In after-hours trading, Interactive Brokers Group fell more than 2% despite reporting strong quarterly results, and Oracle slipped more than 2% after the cloud computing giant gave analysts its long-term financial outlook. Drugmakers Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk also moved lower after President Donald Trump during a briefing on fertility treatments suggested the administration was negotiating much lower prices for their blockbuster obesity drugs.

Each of the major U.S. stock indexes closed in the red on Wednesday, fueled by a significant decline in bank stocks late in the session. The Dow lost 301.07 points, or 0.7%, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite settled down 0.6% and 0.5%, respectively.

Shares of several financial heavyweights and regional banking names fell after Zions and Western Alliance disclosed bad loans, which sparked worries about loose lending practices and fears that similar issues could arise. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE), which has been down for four straight weeks, lost more than 6% during the session. Uneasiness in the banking sector has grown after the recent bankruptcies of two auto industry-related companies.

Friday will offer another chance to gauge how regional banks are faring, with a slew of companies set to report their earnings, including Comerica and Fifth Third, among others.

Wednesday also saw a jump in the Cboe Volatility Index, commonly referred to as Wall Street’s fear gauge, alongside moves lower in Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar. Gold prices rose to fresh records, on the other hand, suggesting continued interest in the safe-haven asset amid widespread uncertainty.

Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell” Wednesday that the banking concerns come as there’s is a lot of “speculative froth” that has developed in the public market, with investors chasing stocks with riskier profiles like quantum computing, drones and unprofitable tech stocks.

“When you have that speculative froth and then you have sort of a bigger picture potential issue, those two can sometimes collide and cause an increase in volatility,” she said, noting that most of the so-called froth is not in the megacap names anymore, but rather in smaller pockets of the market such as the Russell 2000 index, which hit a fresh high on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, tensions about global trade and tariff policies, elevated market valuations amid the artificial intelligence boom and the effects of the ongoing U.S. government stoppage have also carried on unabated. The shutdown, which is in its third week, has resulted in an indefinite halt of crucial economic data releases from federal agencies.

This week, the S&P 500 is up nearly 1.2% as a strong start to the third-quarter earnings season props up equities. The 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average has added about 1% week to date, while the Nasdaq Composite has gained 1.6%.

Stock market today: Live updates

CNBC Daily Open: Bad loans by regional banks should concern us all

Published Thu, Oct 16 2025 9:09 PM EDT

When you can’t repay a bank loan, that’s distressing — but probably not for the bank.

But when tens of thousands of people, who had good credit ratings, can’t, it raises concerns about the health of the economy.

And when it’s companies defaulting on very big loans, leading to charges — that is, money the bank writes off as a loss because it has given up on recovering it — and bankruptcies, it’s time for everyone to put on their detective hats.

Both First Brands, an auto parts manufacturer, and car dealership Tricolor Holdings filed for bankruptcy in September. Major banks such as JefferiesUBS and JPMorgan had exposure to either of the two companies.

“Questions are now being asked about how the demise of a relatively unknown auto parts supplier has spread across the global banking and fund management industry, where potentially billions of dollars are entangled in the collapse,” wrote CNBC’s Hugh Leask.

The worries intensified Thursday stateside when two U.S. regional banks raised issues with their loans.

All of the above could be isolated incidents unrelated to each other.

But “when you see one cockroach, there are probably more,” JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said on the bank’s earnings conference call earlier this week.

And rotten loans do not stay within the banking sector. The 2008 global financial crisis — which caused millions to be laid off and economies to sink into a recession — was in part triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis, in which, very simply put, people couldn’t pay for their mortgages.

Then, the cockroaches ran free.

What you need to know today

China accuses U.S. of deliberately sparking ‘panic.’ The White House “seriously distorts and exaggerates” Beijing’s rare earth restrictions, China’s Ministry of Commerce’s spokesperson said Thursday, but added that it is open to talks with the U.S.

Tariffs will cost businesses $1.2 trillion this year. That’s according to a report released Thursday by S&P, which said that companies will bear around one-third of the costs — meaning consumers will be hit harder.

Fears of bad loans ripple through markets. Shares of regional banks and investment bank Jefferies slumped Thursday stateside as more signs of trouble in bank loans emerged. Concerns over the credit market started when two auto-related companies went bankrupt last month.

U.S. stocks dropped on credit concerns. Major U.S. indexes gave up gains early Thursday stateside to close in the red. Europe’s regional Stoxx 600 climbed 0.69%, with the FTSE 100 gaining 0.12% as data showed the U.K. economy expanded by an expected 0.1% in August.

More

CNBC Daily Open: Bad loans by regional banks should concern us all

Wall Street powerhouse sees annual share slide to nearly 40%, lawyers look for class action.

OCT 16, 2025

Jefferies Financial Group, the midsize Wall Street powerhouse that has spent years reinventing itself as a global investment bank and credit manager, is again in the spotlight — this time for all the wrong reasons. Its shares tumbled another nine percent on Thursday as investors pressed executives for clarity about the firm’s exposure to the collapse of auto-parts maker First Brands Group.

The slide, Jefferies’ worst single-day drop since April, capped a bruising month in which the stock has shed nearly a third of its value. The sell-off unfolded as executives hosted a long-scheduled investor day, intended to project stability after weeks of turbulence surrounding First Brands’ bankruptcy.

Few firms have been more entangled in the wreckage. Jefferies played important roles with First Brands through both its investment banking and asset-management divisions. The bank’s California-based team had been helping refinance the company’s corporate loans this summer while its Leucadia Asset Management arm — through a fund called Point Bonita Capital — was buying up First Brands’ receivables in a factoring arrangement worth about $715 million. Jefferies itself had around $45 million at risk.

When First Brands imploded, revealing more than $2 billion of missing investor funds, the shockwaves were immediate. A Justice Department probe is under way, and questions have been raised about whether Jefferies’ bankers should have detected the accounting irregularities sooner.

Chief Executive Rich Handler and President Brian Friedman have tried to calm the storm, saying Jefferies’ employees were “unaware of any fraud at First Brands” and calling the stock reaction “meaningfully overdone,” according to The Journal. The company insists that any direct losses will be “readily absorbable.”

Still, the reassurance has yet to stick. Analysts note that Jefferies now trades near $49 a share, well below its median price target of $74. Law firm Bronstein, Gewirtz & Grossman has launched an investigation into “potential claims on behalf of purchasers of Jefferies securities,” citing the firm’s October 8 disclosure of its $715 million exposure through Point Bonita.

The market damage extends beyond Jefferies. The KBW Regional Banking Index fell almost six percent on the same day, pressured by concerns over credit quality after Zions Bancorporation reported a $50 million charge-off.

For investment professionals, Jefferies’ troubles illustrate how easily boundaries can blur inside modern financial conglomerates. Its Leucadia platform manages capital for institutions, pensions, and family offices; its Jefferies Credit Partners joint venture with MassMutual structures direct-lending products for RIAs and private-wealth clients. Those overlapping channels have long been a selling point — giving Jefferies deal flow and distribution under one roof — but they now underscore the risks when lending, underwriting, and asset management converge.

More

Jefferies plummets 9% as investors question First Brands fallout - InvestmentNews

Nestle gains 8% after consumer goods giant announces plans to slash 16,000 jobs

Published Thu, Oct 16 2025 2:56 AM EDT

Nestle said Thursday it will cut 16,000 jobs as the firm’s new CEO Philipp Navratil looks to accelerate a turnaround at the consumer goods giant.

In a bid to improve operational efficiency, the firm said it will cut 12,000 white-collar jobs and a further 4,000 roles will be reduced over the next two years.

Shares were last trading 7.8 higher on Thursday.

Under its former CEO Laurent Freixe, Nestle had already announced a cost-savings programme worth 2.5 billion Swiss francs ($3.14 billion). This has now been accelerated to 3 billion Swiss francs by the end of 2027. 

The company posted a better-than-expected organic growth rate of 4.3% in the third quarter as it battles an uncertain consumer outlook amid U.S. tariffs and an increase in raw material prices, such as cocoa and coffee beans. 

Notably, Real Internal Growth (RIG) returned to positive territory in the third quarter — up 1.5% — as the maker of Nespresso and KitKat saw growth investments pay off, also helped by easier comparisons. 

A miss on RIG in the second quarter had led to a sharp underformance of Nestle shares. Ahead of the results, analysts at HSBC had already expected RIG to return to positive territory “owing to easier comparatives, incrementally greater benefits from Nestle’s own actions plus reduced elasticity effects from price increases.”

However, the company’s business in Greater China continued to underperform, with the region negatively impacting organic growth by 80 basis points and RIG by 40 basis points. Nestle added that “new management was now in place and it was executing its plan to transform the business.” 

The firm’s strategy of focusing on winners and turnarounding its losers helped driver better-than-expected third quarter sales, said Jon Cox, head of European consumer equities, at Kepler Chevreux.

“Overall, it is extremely positive and certainly looks operationally as if the company has turned the corner with the better performance while the management upheaval over the summer fades into the background,” Cox said, adding that he expects the stock to react very positively.

More

Nestle 3Q earnings; announces 16,000 job cuts

In other news.

Indonesia to buy 42 fighter jets from China in its first non-Western aircraft deal

Thu 16 October 2025 at 6:50 am BST

Indonesia is set to acquire at least 42 Chinese-made Chengdu J-10C fighter jets, marking a significant shift in the nation's defence strategy as its first non-Western aircraft purchase.

Defence Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin confirmed the impending deal in Jakarta on Wednesday, stating it forms part of a broader military modernisation programme. Analysts, however, warn the agreement could heighten regional sensitivities and carry significant geopolitical implications.

“They will be flying over Jakarta soon,” Sjamsoeddin said. He declined to provide further details of the purchase.

The plan to buy the J-10s was first disclosed last month by defense ministry spokesperson Brig. Gen. Frega Wenas. Local media had reported that the Indonesian Air Force was still reviewing the Chinese-made fighter jets to ensure their acquisition would effectively strengthen Indonesia's air defense capabilities.

Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa on Wednesday confirmed that his ministry had approved a budget for the purchase of the aircraft from China that reached more than $9 billion.

“So, everything should be ready,” Sadewa told reporters, “But I have to double check when those aircrafts will arrive in Jakarta from Beijing.”

Indonesia has embarked on a drive to upgrade and modernize its military arsenal and strengthen its defense industry under President Prabowo Subianto's administration. Subianto has crisscrossed the globe since he was appointed defense minister in 2019, traveling to China, FranceRussiaTurkey and the U.S. in a bid to acquire new military weapon systems and surveillance and territorial defense capabilities.

The Indonesian Air Force currently has fighter jets from countries including the U.S., Russia and Britain. Some of these aircraft need to be upgraded or replaced.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced in June that his country will export 48 of its KAAN fighter jets to Indonesia. Those jets would be manufactured in Turkey and exported to Indonesia, Erdogan said in an X post.

Indonesia finalized an order for 42 French Dassault Rafale fighter jets in January 2024, with the first delivery expected in early 2026. Southeast Asia's largest economy also announced the purchase of two French Scorpene Evolved submarines and 13 Thales ground control interception radars.

Beni Sukadis, a defense analyst from the Indonesia Institute for Defense and Strategic Studies, said that despite being politically non-aligned, the government shouldn't underestimate the geopolitical implications of its choices.

After decades of relying on Western suppliers, a major arms purchase from Beijing “could be read as a shift in Indonesia's security orientation amid China’s growing military and diplomatic influence in Southeast Asia region,” Sukadis said.

He warned the “move could spark regional sensitivities over the South China Sea where China has direct interests.”

Indonesia to buy 42 fighter jets from China in its first non-Western aircraft deal

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

UK economy grew 0.1 per cent in August

Thursday 16 October 2025 7:21 am  |  Updated:  Thursday 16 October 2025 7:30 am

The UK economy grew by 0.1 per cent in August, Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures have shown, with a struggling construction sector in the month weighing down on output across the UK. 

The ONS data indicated on Wednesday morning the UK economy was set for a significant slowdown after an upswing in spending over the first half of the year. 

Fresh data showed the UK economy grew 0.3 per cent in the three months to August while monthly growth was the same as economists expected.

The figures may still leave Chancellor Rachel Reeves exposed to further criticism given Labour’s central mission is to grow the UK economy at a faster pace.  

The UK’s services sector, which makes up around 80 per cent of gross value added across the country, grew by 0.4 per cent over a three-month period while construction inched up 0.3 per cent. 

Over August, however, services showed no growth and construction fell 0.3 per cent.

Official data also showed production fell 0.3 per cent in a three-month period but grew on a monthly basis in August, which is likely to spark fears that industry was struggling with mounting costs from tax hikes and a weakened demand for products. 

“Economic growth increased slightly in the latest three months,” said Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the ONS.

“Services growth held steady, while there was a smaller drag from production than previously.”

Fresh data will intensify scrutiny over Labour’s growth efforts, with stagnation worries are expected to linger for the rest of the year. 

The UK economy enjoyed one per cent growth in the first half of the year. Economists have pointed out that firms had front-loaded investment and spending before April’s “Liberation Day” given fears tariffs would hit UK industry, with sluggish growth to follow as the year comes to a close. 

The ONS also revised figures for July as it said the UK economy declined 0.1 per cent in the month of July. 

More

UK economy grew 0.1 per cent in August

Canadian New Vehicle Sales Flash Another Recession Sign

October 15, 2025

Canada just got another recession warning—falling new vehicle sales. Statistics Canada (StatCan) data shows new motor vehicle sales fell sharply in August, marking the biggest drop for the month since 2010. Durable goods like vehicles and homes see sales fall after the peak of the business cycle, signaling a recession that can’t be managed with simple rate cuts. 

New vehicles are durable goods—big-ticket purchases meant to last years. The category includes appliances, furniture, home renovations, and machinery (and tools!). These purchases rely on both financing and consumer confidence, offering a key read on household and economic health.

Falling vehicle sales signal consumer hesitation or tighter credit—way before it hits retail. A housing downturn may be a sentiment blip, but when other durable goods slump in tandem, it’s a clear sign the business cycle has peaked.

Canadian new motor vehicle sales made an unusually large decline in August, falling 7.1% to 167,000 units. That’s just 0.5% higher than last year, despite population growth and pent-up demand from the pandemic-era shortage. Monthly moves don’t usually stand out, but this one does: the 10-year average for August is 1.6% growth. Instead, the recent drop marked the largest decline for the month since 2010. 

The link to a recession year isn’t a coincidence. Declines in new vehicle sales preceded downturns in 2014, 2008, the late ’90s, the early ’90s, and the early ’80s. The declines have persistently clustered around Canada’s past recessions. 

Spending on new vehicles is falling fast. The total dollar volume in August held steady at $9.15 billion, but that’s 1.7% lower than last year. With 167,000 units sold, the average sale price fell to $54,800—down 0.8% from July and 2.1% lower than last year. Adjusted for inflation, the price drop is even more severe. 

But the biggest red flag is the unusually sharp reversal from December’s record high. Average sale prices typically peak in December and ease into spring—but this year’s pullback was a historic move. Since December 2024, prices have dropped 8.2%, or roughly $4,000, to the lowest level since April. It’s the sharpest December-to-August decline since 2008. There’s that global financial crisis era again. 

Canadian new vehicle sales didn’t just slip—they posted the sharpest erosion since the Global Financial Crisis. The drop was unusually large, rarely seen post-2000. Sales, dollar volumes, and average prices all fell together—a rare alignment that typically signals recession. The downturn is unfolding the fastest since 2008, warning this isn’t a lull—it’s the cycle turning. 

Canadian New Vehicle Sales Flash Another Recession Sign - Better Dwelling

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

Woman who suffered severe reaction to Covid jab says symptoms are now ‘worse than ever’

It comes as more than 1,000 suspected adverse reactions to Covid vaccines have been reported in the Isle of Man, including six fatalities

Thursday 16th October 2025 7:15 am

A mother who had a severe allergic reaction after receiving the Covid jab says she is dismayed that no MHK has picked up her Tynwald Day petition on vaccine injury.

Nikola Brindley spoke out after it emerged there have been no fewer than 1,095 suspected adverse drug reaction reports associated with the Covid-19 vaccine roll-out in the Isle of Man.

But the UK vaccine watchdog said that a reported reaction does not necessarily mean it was caused by the vaccine, only that someone suspected a possible link.

Nikola had been a physically fit and healthy dental nurse and receptionist until she had her first dose of Astra Zeneca in July 2021.

She now says she suffers from multiple chronical health issues including abdominal cramps, joint problems, breathlessness, swollen lymph nodes, rib pain, repeated flu-like symptoms, overwhelming fatigue and often relies on a wheelchair.

Nikola, who helps run a vaccine injury support group, submitted a Tynwald Day petition in 2023 calling for an independent inquiry into the safety of Covid-19 vaccination.

It was ruled in order, but no MHK has since picked it up.

She said: ‘We wrote to multiple MHKs on it and have had little or no response or willingness to even take it.’

More

Woman who suffered severe reaction to Covid jab says symptoms are now ‘worse than ever’ | Isle of Man Today

MHK – Member of the House of Keys.

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Today, a glimpse of our future chaos.

WALK IT OFF 

Villainous hackers jam busy US road with 50 self-driving cabs in IRL cyber attack echoing a chilling dystopian film

The motivation behind the prank is more innocent than you may think

Joseph Brogan  Published: 16:13, 15 Oct 2025 Updated: 16:34, 15 Oct 2025

AUTONOMOUS vehicles may be the future of rideshare, but they may not quite be ready for widespread use yet.

An inventive act organized by a tech-savvy social media user highlighted a potential exploit in one self-driving car company’s system.

The so-called ‘world’s first Waymo DDoS” was apparently organized by 23-year-old self-proclaimed tech prankster and San Francisco resident Riley Walz, who posted “the plan” to his X account on October 12.

However, the actual incident occurred in July, according to Road & Track.

“At dusk, 50 people went to San Francisco’s longest dead-end street and all ordered a Waymo at the same time,” read Walz’s post. Attached were pictures showing the autonomous vehicles lined up with seemingly nowhere to go.

The plan resulted in the Jaguar I-Pace vehicles which Waymo uses being caught in the synthesized self-driving traffic jam.

Likewise, this is why Walz called the move a “Waymo DDoS,” which stands for dedicated denial of service. It’s a type of cyberattack that overwhelms a system with traffic to disrupt its normal operation, whether that system is a website, app, or other online platform.

Walz’s use of the term references how these dozens of simultaneous requests briefly jammed Waymo’s network.

However, Waymo eventually caught on and was able to fix the issue, as highlighted in a second post to X by Walz.

“We didn’t actually get in the cars. They left after about 10 min and charged a $5 no show fee. Waymo handled this well. I assume this isn’t much different than if a big concert had just ended. Eventually, they disabled all rides within a 2 block vicinity until the morning,” he said.

Walz explained that the reason he and his coconspirators decided to do this was simply because they thought it would be fun to see, while also stressing his respect for the Waymo team and what they’ve built.

Walz also emphasized that, as a result of the so-called DDoS attack, the company can now adjust their systems to prevent a similar event with malicious intent behind it from happening.

He also emphasized that the event was organized deliberately and with care so as not to disrupt other people.

Waymo provided a statement to Road & Track which emphasized that it is always refining its system to balance the service’s physical footprint with the need to deliver an excellent rider experience.

Considering how crucial large-scale events and the demand they create for Waymo vehicles are, Walz’s prank was likely a welcome test of the service more than anything in the company’s eyes.

Neither Waymo nor Walz immediately responded to The U.S. Sun’s request for comment.

More

Villainous hackers jam busy US road with 50 self-driving cabs in IRL cyber attack echoing a chilling dystopian film

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Another weekend and what new or altered tariffs will team Trump think up this weekend? Have a great weekend everyone.

If farming were to be organised like the stock market, a farmer would sell his farm in the morning when it was raining, only to buy it back in the afternoon when the sun came out.

John Maynard Keynes

No comments:

Post a Comment