Baltic
Dry Index. 1961 +11 Brent Crude 64.62
Spot Gold 3971 US 2 Year Yield 3.59 +0.12
US GDP 31.541 trillion.
Neither a borrower nor a lender be, for loan oft loses both itself and friend, and borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry.
William Shakespeare
Much to my relief, if not London’s House of Clowns and Washington, District of Crooks, my normal internet and landline service has finally been restored.
With Nvidia now worth more than the entire German economy, what part of a dot con bubble doesn’t the US central bank and the US Treasury understand?
When Nvidia blows up, as it will, the fallout
will be massive and widespread.
Don't look now but Uncle Scam's debt is about to hit 38 trillion.
Chinese and Hong Kong stocks slide after Trump-Xi
meeting
Published Wed, Oct 29 2025 7:55 PM EDT
Chinese and Hong Kong markets fell
Thursday as investors assessed the first in-person meeting between U.S.
President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping since Trump began his
second term.
Mainland China’s CSI 300 slipped 0.5%,
while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng
index fell 0.76%, reversing earlier gains after the meeting concluded.
Trump said he had reached a one-year
agreement with China on rare earths and other critical minerals, and that
Washington will cut fentanyl-related tariffs on Beijing to 10% after
their meeting in South Korea.
Other Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on
Thursday, after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that a rate
cut in December was far from a “foregone conclusion.”
The Fed on Wednesday slashed the benchmark
federal funds rate by 25 basis points, as expected, to bring it to 3.75%-4%.
South Korea’s markets will also be in
focus after Seoul’s chief policy advisor Kim Yong-beom reportedly released
details of the trade deal with Washington.
South Korea will invest $200 billion in
the U.S., with an annual cap of $20 billion a year, while the remaining $150
billion of its $350 billion total pledge announced earlier this year will be
used for shipbuilding cooperation, according to local media reports.
The Kospi gained 0.85% with
gains seen in auto
and shipbuilding stocks, while the small-cap Kosdaq was down 0.78%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 0.36%,
while the Topix rose 0.61%. This comes as the Bank of Japan kept benchmark
interest rates steady at 0.5% in its first meeting after Sanae
Takaichi’s rise to power as the country’s prime minister earlier this month.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down
0.34%.
Overnight in the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed
lower Wednesday after Powell’s remarks, having hit a record high earlier in the
session.
The Dow closed down 0.2% at 47,632.00,
while the S&P 500 ended
marginally lower at 6,890.59.
However, the Nasdaq Composite gained
0.55% to a fresh record close of 23,958.47, propped up by a rise in Nvidia.
Chinese
and Hong Kong stocks slide after Trump-Xi meeting
Nvidia becomes first company to reach $5 trillion
valuation, fueled by AI boom
Published Wed, Oct 29 2025 5:02 AM EDT Updated
Wed, Oct 29 2025 4:04 PM EDT
Shares of Nvidia rose more than 3% on
Wednesday, making the tech giant the first company to cross the $5 trillion
market value threshold.
The extraordinary milestone reflects a
remarkable rise for the company, which has evolved from a niche developer of
video game processors to an integral player in the artificial intelligence boom.
Nvidia’s stock, which closed up 5% on
Tuesday, has climbed more than 50% year to date.
The latest move higher comes shortly after
CEO Jensen Huang said Nvidia expects $500
billion in artificial intelligence chip orders and announced plans to build seven new supercomputers for
the U.S. government.
Separately, Nvidia announced Tuesday
that it is taking a $1 billion stake in Nokia, forming a strategic
partnership with the networking company to develop next-generation 6G cellular
technology.
U.S. stocks, fueled by the AI trade, climbed
to record highs on Tuesday. The major averages were boosted by gains
in tech, with Apple and Microsoft both reaching a
market value of more
than $4 trillion after their shares rose.
The dizzying rally for U.S. stocks comes
despite lingering concerns over a bubble,
particularly as AI-driven spending has led to record deals and valuations.
Earlier in the month, the International
Monetary Fund and Bank of England became the latest financial institutions
to warn that
global stock markets could be in trouble if investor appetite for AI turns
sour.
Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood on
Tuesday flagged the
near-term possibility of a “reality check” on AI valuations — but pushed back
on fears of an AI bubble.
More
Nvidia
becomes first company to reach $5 trillion valuation
Powell Warns This May Be Last Rate Cut of
2025
October 29, 2025 at 10:01 PM GMT
Donald Trump says he wants more rate cuts
to help buttress a wavering US economy, and on Wednesday, the central bank gave
him one. The Federal Reserve cut rates by a quarter-point for a second
month in a row amid pressure from within (a new White House pick and
simultaneous member of the administration) and from without (a president
agitating on multiple fronts for control of the central bank).
The problem of course is that both
unemployment and inflation are rising as the trade war takes its toll, and
the shutdown has short-circuited government data (which was already under
a cloud
of politicization fears). Some economists have advised caution when it
comes to further rate cuts, given the uncertain footing.
The main focus of Trump’s ire, Fed Chair
Jerome Powell, made a point of reasserting himself after the news, telling
investors they shouldn’t assume there will be another rate cut next
month. The remarks seemed aimed at reining in expectations in financial
markets, where the probability of another quarter-point cut in December was
firmly above 90% before he spoke.
“A further reduction in the policy rate at
the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion,” Powell said. “Far
from it.” —David
E. Rovella
Powell
Warns This May Be Last Rate Cut of 2025: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg
The Fed’s balance sheet takes center stage as
liquidity concerns rise
Published Wed, Oct 29 2025 2:10 AM EDT
----Short-term interest rates have
been particularly volatile in recent weeks, with the U.S. repo market signaling
potential liquidity distress as it trades within a few basis points of the
Fed’s upper limit, and in fact was above the top of the range Monday. The repo
market is considered the plumbing of the U.S. financial system as it is the
place where banks go for the overnight loans they use to fund operations.
The rise in funding rates has raised
questions over the state of bank reserves and led a number of analysts to bet
on the Fed ending its quantitative tightening (QT) program earlier than
expected.
“We expect the FOMC to end its securities
runoffs at this month’s meeting,” analysts at Wrightson ICAP said in a note,
citing the recent repo market volatility as a “sufficient warning sign to
justify moving on to the next phase of the Fed’s normalization plan.”
The pervasive repo market heaviness has
led to consistent usage of the Fed’s Standing Repo Facility (SRF), which was
created after the repo market blowup
of 2019 as
a liquidity backstop and de facto ceiling on the funding market.
The SRF suffers from signficiant negative
market perception, as well as structural issues such as its balance sheet costs
(it is not centrally cleared), that have prevented any real uptake from market
participants outside of pressurized statement dates.
The historical reluctance of banks and
dealers to tap the SRF, even when arbitrage opportunities exist, has raised
concerns over why the emergency facility is now seeing use – are there serious
liquidity pressures emerging that are forcing member institutions to tap the
SRF as a true last resort?
“The SRF is functioning exactly as it’s
supposed to,” said Samuel Earl, Barclay’s lead on Short Duration Strategy. “The
Fed has been encouraging people to use [the SRF] when frictions emerge in the
funding markets.”
Barclays expects the Fed to end QT in
December, with Earl raising the point that should the Fed end QT early over SRF
jitters, the unintended consequence may be a reinforcement of the SRF stigma
the central bank has tried so hard to remove.
Earlier this year Dallas Fed President
Lorie Logan said she expected banks to turn to the SRF in the latter half of
the year as liquidity pressures from the September tax date, quarter-end and
heavy issuance weighed on the market.
More
The Fed’s balance
sheet takes center stage as liquidity concerns rise
Shadow banking bubble risks global shock, warns
credit rating agency
29 October 2025
The $3tn (£2.2tn) shadow banking industry
has developed “bubble-like characteristics” that could risk triggering a wider
global financial shock, the credit ratings agency Fitch has warned.
Fitch said that if a crisis took hold in
the private credit market, then it could ripple out to fund managers, banks and
insurers who bankroll the market.
The warning, issued this week, adds to a
drumbeat of concern after the $12bn collapse of US auto parts giant First Brands was followed by two regional US banks
sounding the alarm over bad loans.
This has prompted fears that the incidents
could be symptomatic of more serious problems in the market.
Private credit involves companies
borrowing from specialist funds, often run by private equity. Compared with
traditional bank lending, there is less regulation and transparency.
The market’s size has ballooned 50pc in
recent years, and the International Monetary Fund estimates that banks
worldwide now have about $4.5tn of exposure to private credit players, not all
of which has been drawn down.
Fitch has previously said that the private
credit market is still too small to pose a systemic risk to the financial
system.
But in its new note, the agency warns that
private credit was “emerging from being a niche product for institutional
investors to a more significant asset class that is growing not only in scale
but complexity”.
This meant that “a financial shock event
could reveal unexpected transmission channels” to the wider financial markets.
This transmission risk could be exacerbated by “the emergence of traditional
‘bubble-like’ characteristics”.
These included the growing involvement of
individual investors alongside big banks and fund managers, and the increased
leverage or debt that borrowers were taking on.
More
Shadow
banking bubble risks global shock, warns credit rating agency
BNP hurt by rising bad loans as clients turn
cautious
28 October 2025
PARIS (Reuters) -BNP Paribas missed
third-quarter profit forecasts on Tuesday as a cautious mood among major
corporate clients and higher provisions for bad loans, including an undisclosed
issue at its markets arm, weighed on results.
BNP's investment bank revenues rose, but
trailed Wall Street rivals after a strong run in markets.
Its global banking unit, which advises and
lends to large companies, saw sales fall 2.6%, slightly below forecast, as
geopolitical tensions and a "wait-and-see" mood among clients slowed
activity amid a weaker dollar, the bank said.
Rising debt provisions added to the
challenges for the euro zone's biggest lender by assets, at a time when its
shares have been hit by Sudan-related litigation.
However, the French bank raised its
cost-saving targets for the integration of AXA's asset management arm.
----"The benefits from the AXA
deal are guided to be higher but are relatively small in the group context in
the near term," Royal Bank of Canada said in a note, adding that
"more visibility on the Sudan case is likely to be needed for the shares
to re-rate."
"The recent jury verdict awarding
damages to three individual plaintiffs is fundamentally flawed as a matter of
fact and law and should be overturned," BNP, which is appealing the court
decision, said on Tuesday.
COST OF INTEGRATING AXA IM
BNP posted a net profit of 3.04 billion
euros ($3.55 billion) for July-September, up 6.1% from a year earlier but below
the company-compiled 3.09 billion-euro average of 16 analyst estimates.
Revenues climbed 5.3% to 12.6 billion
euros, missing the 12.8 billion-euro average estimate.
The bank said integrating AXA's fund arm,
bought this year for 5.1 billion euros, would cost about 690 million euros,
with the third quarter marking its first inclusion in BNP's results.
BNP raised its synergy targets from the
deal, now expecting a return on invested capital of 18% in 2028, up from 14%
previously, and 22% in 2029, up from 20%.
The acquisition aims to strengthen BNP's
fee-based asset management business and cut reliance on capital-heavy lending,
as the bank seeks to close the gap with U.S. giants and Europe’s Amundi.
More
BNP hurt by rising
bad loans as clients turn cautious
In other news.
US flight delays near 7,000 as government shutdown
hits Day 27
October 28, 2025
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. air travel
turmoil deepened as nearly 7,000 flights were delayed nationwide on Monday,
with air traffic controller absences surging as the federal government shutdown
reached its 27th day.
The Federal Aviation Administration cited
staffing shortages and imposed ground delay programs affecting Newark Airport
in New Jersey, Austin Airport in Texas and Dallas Fort Worth International
Airport on Monday. Flights in the southeast were delayed earlier because of
significant staffing shortages at the Atlanta Terminal Radar Approach Control.
Roughly 13,000 air traffic controllers and
50,000 Transportation Security Administration officers must work without pay
after a budget impasse between Republican President Donald Trump and
congressional Democrats triggered the shutdown.
The Trump administration has warned flight
disruptions will increase as controllers miss their first full paycheck on
Tuesday.
More than 8,800 flights were delayed on
Sunday.
Southwest Airlines had 47%, or 2,089, of
its flights delayed on Sunday, while American Airlines had 1,277, or 36%, of
its flights delayed, according to FlightAware, a flight-tracking website.
United Airlines had 27%, or 807, of its flights delayed and Delta Air Lines had
21%, or 725, of its flights delayed.
On Monday, Southwest had 34% of flights
delayed, American 29%, Delta 22% and United Airlines 19% as of 11:30 p.m. ET
(0330 GMT), according to FlightAware.
A U.S. Department of Transportation
official said 44% of Sunday's delays stemmed from controller absences — up
sharply from the usual 5%.
The mounting delays and cancellations are
fueling public frustration and intensifying scrutiny of the shutdown's impact,
raising pressure on lawmakers to resolve it.
More
US flight delays near 7,000 as government shutdown hits Day 27
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Why
your beef, bananas and coffee beans have gotten so expensive
By Mary
Cunningham Updated on: October 27, 2025
/ 3:49 PM EDT
For
evidence that the cost of food in the U.S. remains hard to stomach for many
households, look no further than the price of bananas, beef and coffee.
Banana
prices were up 6.9% in September from a year ago, ground beef has risen 12.9%
and roasted coffee has jumped an eye-watering 18.9%, according to the most
recent Consumer Price
Index data
for September. And now for the bad news.
"One
of the questions that I'm asked a lot is, when are prices coming down? And my
answer is simple: never," Phil Lempert, food industry analyst and editor
of SupermarketGuru, told CBS News. "The best that we can hope for is
stabilization."
So
what's behind the surging price of such foods? There are a mix of factors,
ranging from the impact of climate change on crop harvests and U.S. tariffs on
imports to the simple laws of economics.
As
of September, the average cost of a pound of ground beef was $6.30, according
to Federal Reserve data — the
highest since the Department of Labor started tracking beef prices in the 1980s
and 65% higher than in late 2019, just before COVID-19 ravaged the economy.
Over
the trailing 12 months through September, the cost of ground beef has climbed
65 cents per pound, or more than 11%, while the cost of a pound of boneless
sirloin steak has jumped $2.35, or around 20%, the CBS News Price Tracker shows (see below).
The
main reason beef has become painfully expensive comes down to economics and
climate: As global temperatures rise, shrinking cattle herds are straining the
nation's beef supply even as demand remains strong. As with any other product,
prices tend to rise when demand outstrips supply.
Simply,
"The problem is that there's less cows," Lempert said.
As
of July, there were 28.7 million beef cows across the U.S., the lowest number
in decades, USDA data shows.
Experts say the decline in the nation's cattle count is mainly due to
intensifying droughts in recent decades that have forced farmers to reduce
their herds. During a drought from 2011 to 2015, for example, farmers and
ranchers were forced to reduce their herd sizes by up to 2% a year, the USDA
has found.
More
Why your beef,
bananas and coffee beans have gotten so expensive - CBS News
Warning:
The Single Best Indicator of Future Inflation is Ripping Higher!
by Phoenix
Capital Research Tuesday, Oct 28, 2025 -
11:52
The
single best predictor of future inflation is SCREAMING that another
inflationary storm is coming.
The
Fed focuses on two inflation measures: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE).
There
are two MAJOR problems with this:
1.
Both
measures of inflation have numerous gimmicks designed to UNDER-state the true
rate of inflation.
2.
Both
measures are ALSO terrible predictors of future inflation.
What’s
astonishing is that the Fed is aware of both of these facts.
You
see, back in 2001, the Fed had several researchers dive into the subject of
inflation. Their goal was the analyze whether the Fed’s preferred measures of
inflation (CPI and PCE) were decent predictors of future inflation. The Fed
also investigated a whole slew of other inflation measures for comparison
purposes.
The
results?
The
Fed researchers discovered that both CPI and PCE were TERRIBLE predictors of
future inflation. And in fact, the single best predictor of future inflation
was food inflation.
See
for yourself:
We
see that past inflation in food prices has been a better forecaster of future
inflation than has the popular core measure [CPI and PCE]…Comparing the past
year’s inflation in food prices to the prices of other components that comprise
the PCEPI (as in Table 1), we find that the food component still ranks the best
among them all…
Source:
St Louis Fed (emphasis added).
I
bring all of this up, because food inflation is now ripping higher.
September’s
CPI revealed that “food at home” prices rose 0.3% month over month. This
comes to an annualized rate of ~4%... which is WAY over the Fed’s
inflation target of 2%.
On
top of this, both “meats, poultry, fish, and eggs” and “non-alcoholic
beverages” are clocking in at over 5% year over year!
If
you’re looking for a reason why gold has erupted higher this year… and why the
$USD has been dropping like a stone, this is it: the financial system
is fully aware that another inflationary storm is coming in 2026!
Smart
investors are preparing for this NOW, before it hits.
More
Warning: The
Single Best Indicator of Future Inflation is Ripping Higher! | ZeroHedge
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Graphene boosts accuracy in lithium detection, could help make
reliable sensors
27 October 2025
Despite advances in sensor technology,
achieving devices that are both highly precise, reliable, and durable has long
been a significant challenge.
Researchers at the International Iberian
Nanotechnology Laboratory (INL) – Olesia Dudik, Renato Gil, and Raquel Queiros
– have now demonstrated that integrating graphene into solid-contact electrodes
markedly enhances lithium detection. This breakthrough could lead to the
development of more reliable, next-generation sensors suitable for applications
ranging from medical monitoring to energy storage systems.
Their findings were published in Microchemical
Journal and form part of the NGS–New Generation Storage project,
showcasing the potential of graphene to revolutionize lithium measurement
technologies.
Advances in electrode design enhance electrical performance
In modern sensor technology,
solid-contact ion-selective electrodes play a crucial role by converting an
ion’s chemical signal into an electrical one. At the heart of these sensors is
the ion-to-electron transducer, positioned between the ion-selective membrane
and the electronic conductor.
This layer is essential for delivering
stable voltage readings, preventing the formation of water layers, and
enhancing overall sensor robustness. However, selecting an optimal material for
the transducer has proven difficult, as different candidates vary widely in
electrical performance, surface characteristics, and long-term stability.
With their recent study, the INL
researchers have demonstrated that
graphene-modified electrodes outperform other materials, providing highly
electroactive and hydrophobic surfaces that achieve the highest capacitance and
minimal potential drift.
By acting like a superhighway for ion
signals, graphene ensures that these signals reach the electronic system
efficiently, allowing lithium levels
to be measured quickly and reliably, and marking a significant step forward in
sensor performance.
Graphene’s exceptional properties make it perfectly suited
According to Dudik, graphene’s unique
properties make it an ideal transducer for solid-contact lithium-selective
electrodes. She explains that it enhances the sensor’s electrical performance
while also supporting long-term stability, which is an essential factor for
practical applications in healthcare monitoring, energy storage, and industrial
systems.
More
Graphene boosts accuracy in lithium detection, could help make reliable
sensors
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
The fore horse of this frightful team is public debt. Taxation
follow that, and in its turn wretchedness and oppression.
Thomas Jefferson
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