London Irvine Report: Special Update 11/10/2025 Great Depression 2.0. The Trump Dump.

Baltic Dry Index. 1936 +13 Brent Crude 62.73

Spot Gold 4036 U S 2 Year Yield 3.52 -0.08

US Federal Debt. 37.850 trillion

US GDP 30.322 trillion

The stock market and economy are two different things.

Milton Friedman

No need for my input this weekend.

In the latest global trade war madness, Washington’s latest tariff war on Beijing threatens to bring in Great Depression 2.0, but with Washington USD 37.8 trillion deep in unrepayable debt and bring about the end of the 80 year old dollar reserve standard. Central bank digital currencies next?

We’ll be lucky if we escape World War Three, nuclear World War One.

Dow drops almost 900 points, S&P 500 declines the most since April after Trump's new China tariff threat

Updated Fri, Oct 10 2025 4:20 PM EDT

Stocks settled decidedly lower after a rapid decline on Friday following President Donald Trump’s threat of higher tariffs on China, in which he accused the country of “becoming very hostile” with its restrictions on rare earth metals, a key resource for the tech and defense industries.

Stocks accelerated selling into the close, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down 878.82 points, or 1.9%, at 45,479.60. The S&P 500 lost 2.71% to settle at 6,552.51, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 3.56% to 22,204.43. The broad-based index’s decline was the largest since April 10. Prior to Trump’s comments, stocks were sizably higher, with the Nasdaq hitting a new all-time intraday high.

“I was to meet President Xi in two weeks, at APEC, in South Korea, but now there seems to be no reason to do so,” said Trump in a post on Truth Social. “One of the policies that we are calculating at this moment is a massive increase of tariffs on Chinese products coming into the United States of America.”

Trump accused China of holding the globe “captive” using its rare earths metals resources. Earlier this week, China tightened their control on the market requiring foreign entities to get a license from Beijing to export anything that contains rare earths worth 0.1% or more of the value of the goods.

“Expectations for a China trade deal just got swept off the table,” said Jeff Kilburg, founder of KKM Financial. “Profit takers are out in full force.”

Wall Street’s fear gauge – the CBOE Volatility index – spiked above 22, ending about 4 months of a placid upward grind for the S&P 500 to record highs. The move signaled that traders were rushing to buy protection in the options market against an even bigger decline for the benchmark.

Shares of tech stocks with the most to lose from souring trade relations with China led the rapid sell-off Friday. Nvidia lost about 5%, while AMD dropped almost 8% and Tesla shed around 5%. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil fell as investors grew increasingly concerned that higher tariffs might ultimately weigh on demand.

“It’s not surprising to see technology related stocks down the most today as they have significant exposure to China in both manufacturing and as a large customer,” Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth, told CNBC. “Clearly, our relationship with the second largest economy in the world just got more difficult,” he said.

The setback with China came as the U.S. government shutdown dragged into its 10th day on Friday, adding to the bearish sentiment to close out the week. The Senate failed for a seventh time Thursday to pass dueling stop-gap funding proposals that would have put an end to the stoppage. At this point, there have been no signs that Republicans and Democrats have made meaningful progress on negotiations.

With the ongoing shutdown, layoffs of federal workers “have begun,” Trump administration budget chief Russell Vought said in a social media post Friday.

Friday’s declines wiped out the S&P 500′s gain for the week, as the benchmark lost 2.4% for the period. The Nasdaq and the Dow also saw weekly losses of 2.5% and 2.7%, respectively.

Stock market today: Live updates

Trump puts extra 100% tariff on China imports, adds export controls on ‘critical software’

Published Fri, Oct 10 2025 4:57 PM EDT Updated Fri, Oct 10 2025 6:11 PM EDT

President Donald Trump on Friday said the United States would impose new tariffs of 100% on imports from China “over and above any Tariff that they are currently paying,” starting on Nov. 1.

Trump also said that the U.S., on that same date, would also impose export controls on “any and all critical software.”

The president’s announcement came hours after he threatened to slap “a massive increase” of tariffs on Chinese imports in retaliation for new controls that China imposed on exports of rare earths minerals from that nation.

Around 70% of the global supply of rare earths minerals comes from China. The minerals are essential for high-tech industries, including automobiles, defense and semiconductors.

Trump suggested earlier Friday that he would cancel a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea because of China’s new controls.

Nearly every product imported into the U.S. from China already faces steep tariffs. While there are different levels of specific duties on imports, ranging from 50% on steel and aluminum, to 7.5% on consumer goods, the so-called effective tariff rate on Chinese imports currently is 40%, according to Wells Fargo Economics and analysts at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

“It has just been learned that China has taken an extraordinarily aggressive position on Trade in sending an extremely hostile letter to the World, stating that they were going to, effective November 1st, 2025, impose large scale Export Controls on virtually every product they make, and some not even made by them,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on Friday.

“This affects ALL Countries, without exception, and was obviously a plan devised by them years ago. It is absolutely unheard of in International Trade, and a moral disgrace in dealing with other Nations,” Trump wrote.

“Based on the fact that China has taken this unprecedented position, and speaking only for the U.S.A., and not other Nations who were similarly threatened, starting November 1st, 2025 (or sooner, depending on any further actions or changes taken by China), the United States of America will impose a Tariff of 100% on China, over and above any Tariff that they are currently paying,” he wrote.

“Also on November 1st, we will impose Export Controls on any and all critical software.”

China’s Ministry of Commerce on Thursday said that starting Dec. 1 foreign entities must have a license to export products that contain more than 0.1% of rare earths sourced from that country, or that are manufactured using Chinese extraction, refining, magnet-making or recycling technology.

Trump adds 100% tariff on China, critical software export controls

In trade war news, the motorway/interstate back to 1929-1933 speeds up. Commercial insanity or should I write lunacy given this week’s harvest full moon.

China retaliates against U.S. port fees with new charges on American ships

Published Fri, Oct 10 2025 6:35 AM EDT

BEIJING — China on Friday announced that starting Oct. 14, the country will start charging U.S. ships for docking at Chinese ports — a direct response to Washington for imposing fees on Chinese vessels arriving at U.S. ports, set to take effect the same day.

The U.S. fees “seriously violate” international trading principles and “seriously damages” China-U.S. maritime trade, the Chinese Ministry of Transport said in the announcement, translated by CNBC.

China will charge 400 yuan ($56) per net ton for the U.S. vessels, essentially the same as the $50 per net ton that the U.S. is imposing on Chinese ships. Beijing also matched the U.S. with plans to increase the fees over time through April 17, 2028, with the same effective dates.

In the “short term, this will result in an increase in costs for U.S. consumers, a decrease in profits for shippers, and a small decline in demand for exports to the U.S. in certain categories,” said Michael Hart, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in China.

In the longer term, he said there could be more demand for non-Chinese ships. But he didn’t expect an increase in demand for U.S.-made ships due to their high costs and low shipbuilding capacity.

The U.S. only accounts for 0.1% of global shipbuilding, versus 53.3% for China, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

That outsized Chinese market share prompted the U.S. to develop a policy, beginning under the Biden administration, to charge Chinese-made ships when arriving at U.S. ports.

The Chinese Ministry of Transport said the fees would apply to vessels owned by U.S. businesses, organizations, individuals and entities holding a 25% or greater stake. Ships flying the U.S. flag or made in Washington would also be charged, the ministry said.

This is “just more tit-for-tat negotiating tactics. The U.S. placed similar fees on Chinese bound vessels and now China is doing the same,” said Peter Alexander, managing director of Z-Ben Advisors in Shanghai.

“The Trump administration continues to underestimate China and this needs to stop,” Alexander said. “There seems to be little consideration given to second and third-order effects of policy choices.”

He added: “China can give as good as it gets and has demonstrated a willingness to take direct action. Have there been any lessons learned by the Americans over the past six months? It certainly doesn’t seem so.”

The Chinese port fee announcement comes after China doubled down on its export restrictions and broadened its “unreliable entities” blacklist to include chip consulting firm TechInsights, in the last two days.

China retaliates against U.S. port fees with charges on American ships

In other news, America’s First Brands scandal (fraud?) continues to grow. What a surprise. Fools and their money comes to mind.

Wall Street quickly forgot Boesky, Milken, Madoff, Worldcom, Bre-X, and MF Global among others.

First Brands’ implosion is ripping through private credit – and lenders are scrambling to contain the fallout

Published Fri, Oct 10 2025 1:21 AM EDT

The collapse of U.S. auto parts maker First Brands Group is reverberating across the banking sector on both sides of the Atlantic.

The company’s rapid demise – which is now unravelling a maze of complex debt agreements held with a range of lenders and investment funds globally – highlights the risks associated with private credit’s often “aggressive” funding structures.

Jefferies said Wednesday that its Leucadia Asset Management unit has a $715 million exposure to the stricken Ohio-based company through its Point Bonita Capital Fund, which invests in invoice receivables.

UBS O’Connor — the private markets, hedge fund and commodities-focused asset management unit of the Swiss bank — has more than $500 million in overall exposures.

The UBS Working Capital Finance Opportunistic Fund has an estimated 30% exposure through invoice financing specifically. The bank’s funds also have positions in working capital fintech platform Raistone – whose earnings came mostly from First Brands, and in which O’Connor also reportedly holds an equity stake, according to the Financial Times.

“This event affects many private credit and working capital providers across the industry. In this highly fluid situation, we are working to determine the potential performance impact on the small number of our affected funds and are focused on protecting the interests of our clients,” UBS said in a statement.

In an update Wednesday, Jefferies said it is communicating with First Brands’ advisors in order to determine what the impact on Point Bonita might be. The Point Bonita strategy – which manages about $3 billion in assets altogether – has had a First Brands exposure stretching back to 2019, it said. The $715 million exposure is invested in receivables due from a number of companies, including Walmart, Autozone and NAPA.

“In its bankruptcy filings, First Brands indicated that its special advisors were investigating whether receivables had been turned over to third-party factors upon receipt and whether receivables may have been factored more than once,” Jefferies said. “We have not yet received any information regarding the results of that investigation. We intend to exert every effort to protect the interests and enforce the rights of Point Bonita and its investors.”

Jefferies revealed separately Wednesday that its Apex Credit Partners business, which focuses on collaterized loan obligations (CLOs) made up of broadly syndicated loans, has a smaller $48 million exposure through First Brands’ term loans — about 1% of the CLO assets managed by Apex.

Millennium, the $79 billion multi-strategy hedge fund, earlier took a $100 million writedown resulting from an exposure to First Brands’ debt. A Millennium spokesperson declined to comment on the matter.

Weaker lending standards

First Brands, founded in 2014 and owned privately by Singapore-born investor Patrick James, quickly grew through acquisitions of other auto parts companies across the U.S.

It was fuelled by an assortment of off-balance sheet private debt and broadly-syndicated bank financing, as well as other non-traditional lending structures, much of which was backed by outstanding invoice receivables, factoring and other supply chain financing, often involving special purpose vehicles and collateralized loan obligations.

The group – whose subsidiary companies made spark plugs, window wipers, filters, brake parts and other replacement parts — filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on Sept. 28. An earlier aborted refinancing attracted closer scrutiny of the firm’s debt arrangements, estimated at about $10 billion according to the initial bankruptcy filing.

The private credit market has boomed in recent years, emerging as an increasingly important source of real economy financing, particularly for smaller companies, start-ups and other borrowers with riskier credit profiles. Private credit lenders and other alternative investment funds have stepped in to plug the funding gap left by traditional investment banks, whose lending standards were tightened up in the aftermath of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.

First Brands’ implosion: Lenders scramble to contain the fallout

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Why everyone is talking about food inflation

Its predictive power on year-ahead core price pressures is worrying central bankers

Published Oct 7 2025

Politics will never divorce itself from food prices. Whether it is US President Donald Trump dwelling on the price of eggs, Japan’s agriculture minister Taku Eto resigning over an unfunny joke about not buying rice, or UK politicians having to name the price of a pint of milk (£1.65 for four pints with a membership card at my local Co-op, if you’re wondering), food matters. We all buy it, so its price looms large in our minds.

Economists generally worry less. Food prices matter where the income distribution is concerned, as poorer families spend more on groceries as a share of expenditure. But that share has shrunk as societies have become richer. And with food prices considered a poor indicator of future inflation, central bankers have routinely excluded them from core inflation measures alongside energy prices.

That is changing. Monetary policymakers now cannot stop talking about food inflation. The Bank of Japan raised its forecasts for inflation in the summer, largely as a result of rice prices. European Central Bank executive board member Isabel Schnabel highlighted the danger of increasing food prices in a recent interview, saying they were important in “shaping household inflation expectations”. And the Bank of England warned in August that rapid food price rises were adding to the persistence of above-target inflation, hinting that this would slow further interest rate cuts.

Why?

Commodity prices

The chart below shows the international price of food commodities as collected by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), a UN agency. Those that like their olive oil and cheese will not be surprised to read that prices of oils and dairy products have soared since Covid-19.

More importantly, in OECD countries, retail food prices — and, for that matter, general retail prices — have risen faster than the overall FAO food price index, indicating that the cost of commodities is not the only thing responsible for pushing up food prices across advanced economies.

This chart is simple and useful for an overall picture. But it fails to explain the trends that matter for individual countries.

The bigger picture on food price levels

Since the start of 2018, food prices in Switzerland have risen a total of 7 per cent, simply because costs in the Alpine nation are high and stable. At the other end of the scale, food prices have shot up 93 per cent in Hungary, which suffered a severe depreciation of the forint in 2021 and 2022 that exacerbated the rise in global food commodity prices. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government introduced regulated prices and special taxes while blaming foreign retailers for the costs. That put a huge dent in his popularity.

Supply chains did not immediately pass through the 2021-22 commodity price spike, meaning the trends in food retail prices have tracked commodity prices over the past seven years.

European prices have risen a little higher than US ones. Chinese prices rose sharply in 2019, but have been relatively stable since.

Why everyone is talking about food inflation

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

Battery 'explodes' as Somerset fire crews battle garage blaze

10 October 2025

A battery reportedly 'exploded' at a property in Somerset yesterday evening (Thursday, October 9). Multiple fire crews were called to the scene in Combwich after a fire broke out in a garage.

Fire fighters attended the scene and battled the blaze. The gas and electric supplies were disconnected as crews worked to extinguish the fire.

Initially reports suggested a lithium ion battery and charger had exploded. Lithium ion batteries are often used for electronics and electric cars.

The fire did not spread to the house and was contained to the garage. The garage was 10 per cent damaged by the fire and 50 per cent damaged by smoke.

It is not thought that anyone suffered any injuries. Crews left the scene just over three hours later, at around 11.30pm.

Devon and Somerset Fire and Rescue Service said: "Three fire engines from Nether Stowey and Bridgwater attended a property in Combwich after a call to fire control stating a battery had exploded.

"Crews located a fire in the garage of a property and got to work with two breathing apparatus sets, 1 hose reel jet, 1 covering jet and 1 safety jet. Utilities at the property were isolated.

"This fire within a single garage, attached to a residential property measuring 20m by 8m was confined to the garage. The fire is believed to have started by a lithium ion battery and charger.

Battery 'explodes' as Somerset fire crews battle garage blaze

Nissan Recalls Nearly 20,000 Leafs Because Quick Charging the Batteries May Cause Them to Catch Fire

October 8, 2025

Nissan is recalling 19,077 Leaf hatchbacks from 2021 and 2022 because the lithium-ion batteries may catch fire. According to documents filed with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), the cars may catch fire while Level 3 charging. The new recall follows a related recall filed in 2024, which included 2019 and 2020 model year Leafs for the same issue.

According to the recall documents, the lithium-ion batteries in the affected models may have excessive lithium deposits inside their battery cells, which increases the electrical resistance and could cause fluctuation in the state of charge. If the battery does have increased lithium deposits, the increased resistance could lead to rapid heating while hooked up to a Level 3 charger, which, in turn, can lead to a battery fire. The issue affects both the standard 40.0-kWh battery pack and the optional 62.0-kWh pack.

Nissan is still working on a software fix for the issue. In situations where a battery has excessive lithium deposits, the new software will prevent it from continuing to charge while rapidly heating. The recall documents advise that there are no warnings to customers that their car is affected. The company will begin interim owner notification starting on October 24, instructing owners to avoid using Level 3 charging until the fix has been performed.

Once the company has finished the software, it will notify owners who can then have the fix performed free of charge. Owners concerned their vehicle may be included in the recall can check on the NHTSA website.

Nissan Recalls Nearly 20,000 Leafs Because Quick Charging the Batteries May Cause Them to Catch Fire

Approx. 6 minutes.

Miami Tesla Fire Turns Fatal: Lawsuit Reveals a Bigger Problem

Miami Tesla Fire Turns Fatal: Lawsuit Reveals a Bigger Problem

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Exponent Calculator

Enter values into any two of the input fields to solve for the third.

Exponent Calculator

This weekend’s music diversion. Another forgotten great. Approx. 8 minutes.

Giuseppe Antonio Brescianello (1690-1758) - Sinfonia à 4 (1738)

Giuseppe Antonio Brescianello (1690-1758) - Sinfonia à 4 (1738)