Tuesday, 21 October 2025

Stocks, To Infinity And Beyond. Are Trump’s Tariffs Legal?

Baltic Dry Index. 2071 +02      Brent Crude 60.85

Spot Gold 4357            US 2 Year Yield 3.46  unch.

US Federal Debt. 37.921 trillion

US GDP 31.521 trillion.

"The London Banker Henry Fauntleroy forged to keep his bank solvent. He was executed for it in 1824."

Charles P. Kindleberger, author Manias, Panics and Crashes.

Another day, week and month, more great stock casino disconnect from reality.

In the UK, in a sign of rising hardship among the consuming public, Pizza Hut Uk just went into administration.

Dinosaur Graeme thinks bad times lie directly ahead.

South Korea’s Kospi hits sixth straight record high on U.S. trade deal optimism

Published Mon, Oct 20 2025 7:53 PM EDT

South Korea’s Kospi index jumped more than 2% Tuesday to hit a sixth consecutive record high, building on a rally spurred by optimism around an impending trade deal with the U.S.

South Korean stocks have been on a roll since U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC in an exclusive interview Wednesday stateside that Washington was “about to finish up” trade negotiations with the Asian country.

“The devil’s in the details, but we are ironing out the details,” he added.

The Kospi index has risen about 61% year to date.

Auto stocks helped boost the index, with shares of Hyundai Motor climbing 6.45%, while Kia Corp added 4.28%. Heavyweight Samsung Electronics was also up 1.73%.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 rose 1.5% to a fresh record, after closing at an all-time high Monday. The Topix also added 0.73% to hit a record high.

Broader Asia-Pacific markets also opened higher, tracking Wall Street gains, led by a rally in Apple shares.

Investors await Japan’s parliamentary vote, which is likely to see Sanae Takaichi become the country’s next prime minister, after the right-wing opposition Japan Innovation Party said Monday it was ready to back her premiership.

Australia’s ASX/S&P 200 rose 0.50%. Shares of the country’s rare earth companies rose after Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and U.S. President Donald Trump signed a critical minerals agreement Tuesday, aimed at countering China’s dominance.

Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths added 3.8%, Iluka Resources jumped nearly 6%, Pilbara Minerals rose 4.7%. VHM skyrocketed over 30%, while Northern Minerals soared nearly 15%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 1.17% in early trading, while the Hang Seng Tech index was up 1.84%. Mainland’s CSI 300 was 0.3% higher.

Hong Kong-listed shares of CATL gained 4.73% after the battery manufacturer posted strong third-quarter earnings late Monday. The Tesla battery supplier’s net profit for the July-September period rose 41% to 18.5 billion yuan ($2.6 billion).

Indian markets are closed for a holiday.

U.S. equity futures were little changed in early Asian hours, ahead of a busy earnings week from big-name companies and inflation data.

Overnight, the three key benchmarks in the U.S. rose on a rally in Apple shares after Loop Capital upgraded it to buy from hold.

 The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 515.97 points, or 1.12%, higher at 46,706.58. The S&P 500 also climbed 1.07% to settle at 6,735.13, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.37% to settle at 22,990.54.

Asia markets live: Japan parliamentary vote, Australia rare earth shares rise

U.S. and Australia sign critical minerals agreement with $8.5 billion project pipeline

Published Mon, Oct 20 2025 1:17 PM EDT Updated Mon, Oct 20 2025 4:04 PM EDT

President Donald Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Monday signed an agreement on critical minerals and rare earths that Albanese said includes plans for projects worth a total of up to $8.5 billion.

Albanese, during a meeting with Trump at the White House, said, “There will be $1 billion contributed from Australia and the United States over the next six months with projects that are immediately available.”

But the White House subsequently issued a fact sheet that said the countries would invest more than $3 billion in critical mineral projects over the next six months. It described the agreement as a “framework.”

The White House also said that the Export-Import Bank of the United States will issue seven letters of interest for more than $2.2 billion in financing, unlocking up to $5 billion in total investment.

CNBC has asked the White House and the Australian prime minister’s office for clarification on the discrepancy between what Albanese said and what the fact sheet said.

The framework agreement between Australia and the U.S. comes as the Trump administration is seeking to establish a critical mineral and rare earths supply chain that is not dependent on China.

Rare earths are a subset of critical minerals. They are used to produce magnets that are crucial inputs in U.S. weapons platforms, semiconductor manufacturing, robotics and electric vehicles among other applications.

China dominates the global rare earths supply chain, particularly refining and processing. The U.S. is dependent on Beijing for rare earths imports. Australia, a close U.S. ally, is one of the few countries in the world other than China that processes rare earths.

Pentagon investment in Australia

Albanese said there will be three groups of joint projects between the two countries, which will include companies such as Alcoa. The U.S. will invest in rare earths processing in Australia, the prime minister said. One project is a joint venture between Australia, the U.S. and Japan, he said.

“What we’re trying to do here is to take the opportunities which are there,” Albanese told reporters.

The Pentagon will invest in building a gallium refinery in western Australia with a capacity of 100 metric tons per year, according to the White House. Alcoa announced in August that it is exploring the feasability of a gallium project with Japan at one of the company’s alumina refineries in western Australia.

“In about a year from now, we’ll have so much critical mineral and rare earths that you won’t know what to do with them,” Trump told reporters. The U.S. is also working with other nations to build a supply chain that isn’t dependent on China, the president said.

China-U.S. tensions

China announced strict export controls on rare earths earlier this month, pushing Beijing and Washington to the brink of a renewed trade war. Trump has threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese goods starting Nov. 1 or sooner if Beijing does not back down.

“They threatened us with rare earths, and I threatened them with tariffs, but I could also threaten them with many other things, like airplanes,” Trump said Monday.

Trump confirmed he will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea later this month. The U.S. president said he will visit China early next year.

“We had presidents that allowed China and other countries get away with murder,” Trump said. “We’re not going to allow that, but we’re going to have a fair deal. I want to be good to China. I love my relationship with President Xi. We have a great relationship.”

U.S. and Australia sign critical minerals agreement

Supreme Court Is Told Trump Tariffs Are Illegal $3 Trillion Tax

October 20, 2025

(Bloomberg) -- Small businesses challenging many of President Donald Trump’s global tariffs urged the US Supreme Court to affirm lower court rulings that the import levies amount to a massive illegal tax on American companies.

Trump usurped the power of Congress to tax when he issued levies in February and April under an emergency law that was never intended to be used to impose duties, one of the companies, Learning Resources Inc., said in a brief Monday. The justices are set to hear arguments Nov. 5 in the high-stakes case.

“In the months since, he has raised and lowered, paused and resumed, and threatened and unthreatened tariffs at will, for a grab bag of reasons,” Learning Resources said. “By the government’s own account, those actions amount to an over $3 trillion tax increase on Americans over the next decade.”

The justices are set to determine if Trump legally issued the tariffs under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a law that gives the president a panoply of financial tools to address national security, foreign policy and economic emergencies. The US trade court ruled against Trump in a decision that was upheld by a federal appeals court.

Trump says his tariffs are authorized legally under the law, known as IEEPA, because a key provision of the statute says the president can “regulate” the “importation” of property to address an emergency.

The justices on Sept. 9 agreed to hear the case on an unusually aggressive schedule that suggests the court will try to resolve the case quickly. The tariffs remain in place for now, even though the federal appeals court ruled that the president exceeded his authority by imposing them.

The challenged taxes include Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” tariffs, which impose levies of 10%-50% on most US imports depending on the country they come from. Trump justified the levies under IEEPA by declaring US trade deficits to be a national emergency.

The White House didn’t immediately respond to a message seeking comment.

The appeal also covers tariffs Trump imposed on Canada, Mexico and China for allegedly failing to stem the flow of migrants and fentanyl trafficking. Trump said the situation at the borders also constituted a national emergency under IEEPA.

Trump administration officials have downplayed the impact of the litigation by saying that most of the tariffs can be imposed by other legal avenues. Trump’s tariffs on steel, aluminum and automobiles were imposed under a different law, so are not directly affected by the appeal.

In a second brief filed on Monday, lawyers for a separate group of small businesses led by wine and liquor distributor V.O.S. Selections Inc. said Trump’s tariffs contradict what the nation’s founders intended when they gave Congress the power to levy taxes.

“The government contends that the president may impose tariffs on the American people whenever he wants, at any rate he wants, for any countries and products he wants, for as long as he wants — simply by declaring longstanding US trade deficits a national emergency and an unusual and extraordinary threat,” the company said. “The president can even change his mind tomorrow and back again the day after that.”

A group of Democratic-led states is also challenging the tariffs.

The cases are Learning Resources v. Trump, 24-1287, and Trump v. V.O.S., 25-250, US Supreme Court.

Supreme Court Is Told Trump Tariffs Are Illegal $3 Trillion Tax

In other news.

L&G: FTSE 100 giant reveals £2bn plan to create 24,000 jobs

Monday 20 October 2025 12:01 am  |  Updated:  Friday 17 October 2025 12:48 pm

FTSE 100 giant Legal & General (L&G) has revealed plans to invest £2bn in regeneration projects across the UK in a move which it said will create around 24,000 jobs.

The group said it would invest into ‘productive assets’ such as infrastructure, affordable housing and urban regeneration between now and 2030.

L&G added that it would help deliver around 10,000 new social and affordable homes across the country.

Funds are to be allocated based on ‘local needs and demand’, the group also said. L&G already has investments live in the likes of Oxford, Glasgow, Cardiff, Newcastle, Salford and Sheffield.

The plans come as the UK government redoubles its efforts to encourage regional growth by using investment from pension funds alongside public funding to deliver housing and infrastructure projects at scale.

António Simões, group chief executive at L&G, said: “As a long-term investor in the UK economy, L&G has a proud history of using pension capital to develop assets that deliver strong financial returns and lasting social impact.

“Our £2bn commitment will help unlock the investment needed in productive assets across the country – creating jobs, strengthening communities, and driving both regional and national growth.”

Reeves targets pension funds’ investment

L&G’s announcement comes ahead of the first-ever Regional Investment Summit in Birmingham on Tuesday, 21 October.

There, Sterling 20 – a new investor-led partnership of 20 of Britain’s largest pension providers and insurers – will meet to identify and fund key infrastructure projects across the UK.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves added: “This is about getting Britain building again – bringing our savings, our investors and our regions together to deliver the homes, infrastructure and industries that will drive growth and create good jobs in every corner of the country.  

“Our country’s pension funds are some of the biggest in the world. When they invest in Britain, everyone benefits – from the construction worker on site, to the small business on the high street, to the saver seeing their pension grow.

“Sterling 20 shows what can be achieved when we all pull in the same direction to build a stronger economy that works for, and rewards, working people.” 

L&G’s previous regional investments have included a £50m partnership with Newcastle City Council and Newcastle University which helped transform the former Scottish and Newcastle Brewery site into the 24-acre Newcastle Helix.

The £1bn City Square development in Cardiff was also supposed by L&G alongside the city council.

The scheme helped to create new transport links, offices and homes, helping to generate 13,000 jobs.

L&G’s claim that it will create around 24,000 direct, indirect and induced jobs was calculated using National Housing Federation – Local Economic Impact Calculator and RICS UK commercial real estate impact report.

L&G: FTSE 100 giant reveals £2bn plan to create 24,000 jobs

Fall in China's exports of rare earth magnets stokes supply chain fears

20 October 2025

BEIJING (Reuters) -China's exports of rare earth magnets fell in September, reigniting fears that the world's top supplier could wield its dominance over a component key for U.S. defence firms and makers of items from cars to smartphones as leverage in trade talks.

In April and May, Beijing squeezed global automakers with export curbs on a range of rare earths items and related magnets, while negotiators faced off over triple-digit U.S. tariffs on goods from the world's second-largest economy.

Four months on, after Washington and Beijing unexpectedly reprised threats of fresh tariffs and rare earth export curbs, worry is growing that China could return to the same playbook.

That would mean it reneges on a June deal with the United States to ease the flow of critical minerals.

China's shipments of rare earth magnets fell 6.1% in September from August, customs data showed on Monday, ending three months of gains, and dropping even before Beijing unveiled a dramatic expansion of its export licensing regime this month.

"The sharp swings in rare earth magnet exports show that China knows it holds a key card in international trade talks," said Chim Lee, senior analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

EXPORTS FALL FROM AUGUST'S SEVEN-MONTH HIGH

The September fall to 5,774 tons from a seven-month high of 6,146 tons in August aligns with reports that China is already making it harder for firms to secure licences for exports of rare earth magnets.

Its commerce ministry is applying scrutiny similar to that seen in April, at the height of the trade war.

On an annual basis, September shipments rose 17.5%.

Last week, China's commerce ministry accused the United States of stoking global panic over its rare earth controls by deliberately misunderstanding the curbs, and said it would approve export licences intended for civilian use.

Still, analysts worry China could once again entangle civilian commercial users in curbs aimed at choking U.S. defence firms' access to critical materials.

"China's ability to throttle rare earth exports is an exceptionally powerful tool," said Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group.

Apart from disrupting production, such measures would fuel insecurity over access to critical industrial inputs and growing reliance on China, she added.

"The world has to adjust to its management style," she said, adding that Western countries are not used to complying with a monopolistic control of critical resources from countries on 'the other side'.

By country, Germany, South Korea, Vietnam, the United States and Mexico were the top five export destinations for Chinese rare earth magnets by volume last month.

Over the nine months of the year, exports of such magnets totalled 39,817 tons, a fall of 7.5% from the corresponding 2024 period.

NO SIGN OF BEIJING BACKING DOWN

Shipments to the United States fell 28.7% in September on the month, the data showed, while exports to Vietnam rose 57.5% over the same period.

The Netherlands processed 109% more rare earth magnets than in August, though the figure is skewed by the huge Rotterdam port, a major transit hub for Europe-bound trade.

Just before the release of the data, President Donald Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that he did not want China to "play the rare earth game with us".

He suggested he might hold off on raising tariffs back to levels in excess of 100% if the world's top agricultural buyer committed to purchasing U.S. soybeans.

But Beijing shows no sign of backing down, adamant that its new wider curbs, set to take effect just days before the November 10 expiry of the latest 90-day tariff truce with the United States, are consistent with measures in other major economies.

President Xi Jinping is set to meet Trump in South Korea later this month, but economists warn that trade friction between the two biggest economies may be the new normal.

"The surge in exports during the third quarter came after it (China) eased export controls earlier in the year, but that's likely to drop again following the tighter restrictions introduced recently," added EIU analyst Chim Lee.

Fall in China's exports of rare earth magnets stokes supply chain fears

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Americans more worried about finding jobs as inflation persists under Trump

Chris Williams  Mon, October 20, 2025 at 1:59 AM GMT+1

WASHINGTON - An Associated Press–NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll finds that Americans are becoming increasingly worried about their job prospects under President Donald Trump — a potential warning sign for Republicans as the once-promised economic boom has shifted toward hiring freezes and persistent inflation.

High prices for groceries, housing and health care persist as a fear for many households, while rising electricity bills and the cost of gas at the pump are also sources of anxiety, according to the survey.

By the numbers

Some 47% of U.S. adults are "not very" or "not at all confident" they could find a good job if they wanted to, an increase from 37% when the question was last asked in October 2023.

Electricity bills are a "major" source of stress for 36% of U.S. adults at a time when the expected build-out of data centers for artificial intelligence could further tax the power grid. Just more than one-half said the cost of groceries are a "major" source of financial stress, about 4 in 10 said the cost of housing and health care were a serious strain and about one-third said they were feeling high stress about gasoline prices.

The survey suggests an ongoing vulnerability for Trump, who returned to the White House in January with claims he could quickly tame the inflation that surged after the pandemic during Democratic President Joe Biden's term. Instead, Trump's popularity on the economy has remained low amid a mix of tariffs, federal worker layoffs and partisan sniping that has culminated in a government shutdown.

Local perspective

Linda Weavil, 76, voted for Trump last year because he "seems like a smart businessman." But she said in an interview that the Republican's tariffs have worsened inflation, citing the chocolate-covered pecans sold for her church group fundraiser that now cost more.

"I think he’s doing a great job on a lot of things, but I’m afraid our coffee and chocolate prices have gone up because of tariffs," the retiree from Greensboro, North Carolina, said. "That’s a kick in the back of the American people."

More

Americans more worried about finding jobs as inflation persists under Trump

This vital ingredient suggests the U.S. economy is still faring OK — with no recession brewing

October 20, 2025

When the U.S. economy shows sign of stress, one of the first things Americans strike from their budgets are takeout dinners and going out to restaurants. It’s one of the best early warning signs of recession.

Well, people are not cutting back much right now, especially wealthier ones. And that’s a good sign for the economy amid a turbulent year marked by the return of Donald Trump to the White House, the biggest trade wars since the Great Depression and the latest shutdown of the federal government.

Sales at U.S. bars and restaurants rose 6.5% in the 12 months ended in August, government data showed, up from 4.3% a year earlier. Americans also spent generously on food outside of their homes in the spring and summer.

The restaurant business has shown “surprising resilience despite all the headwinds,” said Chad Moutray, chief economist at the National Restaurant Association. “The good news is I don’t see a recession — consumers are hanging in there.”

Sales and deals

What’s keeping restaurants busy?

The economy is still growing, for one thing, and that’s kept layoffs and unemployment surprisingly low. Companies see little reason to cut staff when sales are stable and good help is already hard to find.

Americans tend to spend more freely when they feel secure in their jobs, economists point out. Not only that, but incomes are rising faster than inflation.

What’s more, the record boom in the stock market has added a gale-force tailwind to consumer spending, particularly for wealthier households.

“The stock market’s recent strength has been a significant driver,” said Michael Pearce, deputy chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

Consider the strength of online restaurant reservations.

The site OpenTable reported that reservations last week were up 12% from a year earlier. Most of the restaurants that partner with OpenTable are higher-end establishments catering to upper-income Americans.

Fast-food and limited-service restaurants that cater to middle- and lower-income people, for their part, have been able to boost sales by introducing new specials to price-conscious customers.

Take Domino’s The national pizza chain saw improved sales in the spring after it introduced new value meals, such as a $9.99 pizza special.

“The winners here are the brands that have done a great job of conveying value,” Moutray said.

Changing tastes

That’s not to say all is well in the food world — it isn’t. Restaurants have struggled this year with rising costs for ingredients such as beef, scarce labor and more finicky customers.

Restaurant owners say customers have adopted all kinds of new habits to try to keep their bills down. They choose smaller portions, split more entrees or even order kids’ meals.

In Atlanta, “diners continued to pull back by skipping desserts and alcoholic beverages,” the Federal Reserve said in its latest survey of the economy.

All this penny-pinching has reduced the appetite of restaurants and food preparers to hire more workers. The industry employs some 15 million people — or nearly 1 in 10 workers — but new jobs have hardly grown this year.

In the first eight months of this year, bars and restaurants added a mere 13,000 jobs, Bureau of Labor Statistics data show.

By contrast, the industry created 40,000 jobs in the first eight months of 2024 and a much larger 173,000 in the same eight-month period in 2023.

Moutray said foot traffic at restaurants has been flat to negative overall in the early fall, prompting business owners to become more conservative, like their customers.

“More than 70% of owners say they expect to hold hiring flat over the next six months,” he said.

Still, sales are holding up pretty well.

Bank of America said credit-card spending at bars and restaurants was up 3.2% in early October compared with a year earlier. That’s in line with the trend over the past few years, when the economy was even stronger.

The path forward

So what could go wrong?

Lower-income households are feeling more stress due to rising inflation and a more uncertain economy. They are cutting out trips to fast-food restaurants and buying cheaper foods at supermarkets — so much so that the 1970s stable Hamburger Helper is making a comeback.

The cost of food has risen so much that even value chains such as McDonald’s have suffered a decline in traffic among certain segments of the population.

In the second quarter, for instance, McDonald’s reported a decline in visits from lower-income customers who have long been critical to its business. The company said it would focus more on promotions to try to lure them back.

“Re-engaging the low-income consumer is critical, as they typically visit our restaurants more frequently than middle- and high-income consumers,” McDonald’s Chief Executive Chris Kempczinski said last month.

A stock-market meltdown could pose an even bigger threat, since wealthier Americans are the biggest spenders on takeout and fine dining.

Families with annual incomes of $100,000 or more only represent 43% of all households — but they account for nearly 60% of all restaurant spending, research shows.

This vital ingredient suggests the U.S. economy is still faring OK — with no recession brewing

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Today, the Air India flight 171 crash explained. Pilots exonerated. Approx. 32 minutes.

Air India Crash - Cause of AI 171 Crash #airindiacrash

Air India Crash - Cause of AI 171 Crash #airindiacrash

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

FIAT

Noun. Decree, command, edict, mandate, permission. A cheap Italian car.

FIAT CURRENCY

A currency whose value is whatever it is decreed to be, undetermined by market forces.

One US Dollar.

WAMPUM

Noun. Beads used as money by extinct N. American Indians. Had a value of whatever the Chief said.


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