Baltic Dry Index. 1983 +22 Brent Crude 64.58
Spot Gold 4019 US 2 Year Yield 3.61 +0.02
US Federal Debt. 38.003 trillion
US GDP 31.543 trillion.
The US federal debt first hit 37 trillion on June 20, 2025. It took only four months to reach 38 trillion yesterday. Dollar reserve standard v gold anyone?
It is month-end Friday, time to dress up stocks. Look away from the AI bubble and US federal debt now rising at a rate of a new trillion dollars every four months.
Bunker time. Something’s going to blow up and
when it does financial chaos is the result.
Japan stocks hit record highs as Asia markets
mostly gain after Trump-Xi truce
Published Thu, Oct 30 2025 7:44 PM EDT
Japan stocks led gains in Asia on Friday
as investors assessed a truce between Washington and Beijing, following a
meeting between President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.
They reached a trade deal of sorts during
a high-stakes meeting in South Korea on Thursday, de-escalating a dispute over
rare earth elements that had threatened to push the world’s two largest
economies into a full-blown trade war.
“Both sides appear to be maintaining
leverage for future negotiations by keeping these measures as bargaining
chips,” said JPMorgan Asset Management’s global market strategist, Chaoping
Zhu.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose over 1% to
hit a fresh record, while the Topix added 0.79%, also scaling a new peak.
South Korea’s Kospi added 0.22% after
hitting a fresh record high on Thursday. The small-cap Kosdaq rose 0.47%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 started the
day 0.45% higher.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slid 0.33%,
while mainland China’s CSI 300 was flat.
China’s manufacturing activity in October
contracted more than expected, shrinking to its lowest since May, an official
survey showed on Friday, as trade tensions with Washington reignited during the
month.
The official manufacturing purchasing
managers’ index came in at 49, data from the National Bureau of Statistics
showed, missing economists’ expectations for 49.6 in a Reuters poll. A reading
above the 50 benchmark indicates growth while one below that suggests
contraction.
The country’s manufacturing activity has
remained in contraction since April, when U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff
campaign pressured Chinese factories as well as global demand.
Shares of Panasonic Holdings declined over
8% after the firm lowered its forecast for full-year operating profit by
13.5% on Thursday, citing a decline in expected profit from its key energy
unit, which supplies batteries to Tesla and other automakers.
Overnight in the U.S., all three major
averages closed lower as investors digested a batch of Big Tech earnings.
The S&P 500 dipped
0.99% to finish the day at 6,822.34, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped
1.57% to close at 23,581.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded
down 109.88 points, or 0.23%, to 47,522.12.
Asia-Pacific
markets: Hang Seng Index, Nifty 50, CSI 300
South Korean markets smash records as investors
bet on AI and corporate governance reforms
Published Wed, Oct 29 2025 8:14 PM EDT Updated
Wed, Oct 29 2025 9:09 PM EDT
South Korea’s benchmark Kospi Index has
been on a record-breaking spree this month, hitting 16 intra-day records so
far, propelled by a mix of AI-driven optimism about chip firms and sweeping
corporate governance reforms.
The rally has pushed the index past the
4,000 mark, with nearly 21% gains in October alone so far. The index has soared
more than 72% this year, beating regional peers including Japan’s Nikkei 225,
up 26%, and mainland China’s CSI 300 that has gained more than 19%.
The rally in South Korea stocks reflects
both global AI tailwinds and local structural changes that are steadily eroding
the long-standing “Korea discount,” analysts told CNBC.
“You can’t ignore AI — that’s a secular
growth driver for the next few years,” said Arjun Jayaraman, portfolio manager
at Causeway Capital Management, adding that Samsung and SK Hynix were “right in
the center” of this growth.
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix together
represent more than 1,000 trillion won in market capitalization, accounting for
over 30% of the entire Kospi index, data provided by Yuanta Securities showed.
“The primary driver behind this rally has
been the recovery in the memory semiconductor sector and the resulting upward
revision in corporate earnings,” said Daniel Yoo, head of global asset
allocation at Yuanta Securities.
Strong expectations for earnings from key
players such as Samsung and SK Hynix have lifted investor sentiment, fueled
further by projections of a supercycle driven by global supply shortages in
memory chips.
SK Hynix on Wednesday
posted record quarterly revenue and profit, boosted by a strong demand for its
high bandwidth memory used in generative AI chipsets. Its shares have more than
tripled this year.
Samsung Electronics, which reported a
rebound in earnings on Thursday, with operating profit more than
doubling from the previous quarter on a rebound in its chip business, has seen
shares over 96%.
More
South
Korean markets smash records as investors bet on AI and corporate governance
reforms
Goldman’s Solomon Warns a US Debt ‘Reckoning’
Looms
October 30, 2025 at 9:48 PM GMT
The mounting level of US government debt,
on track for $40 trillion courtesy of this summer’s “big beautiful
bill,” risks a tectonic face plant for the economy if
the pace of growth doesn’t pick up. A common sense sentiment certainly,
but one that arguably carries more weight when coming
from the chief executive of Goldman Sachs.
“If we continue on the current course and
we don’t take the growth level up, there will be a reckoning,” David
Solomon said on Thursday. He was echoing widespread concern that the
US and other western economies are becoming addicted to debt-fueled stimulus.
Solomon has dismissed concerns
about a potential “systemic” crisis in US credit after a small number of
high-profile bankruptcies, and says he sees a “low” chance of a recession in
the near-term. But still, he says that for economies drowning in debt, there is
only one real alternative: “The path out is a growth path.” —David
E. Rovella
Goldman’s
Solomon Warns a US Debt ‘Reckoning’ Looms: Evening Briefing Americas -
Bloomberg
In other news.
Chinese microchip row threatens to shut down
European car industry
29 October 2025
European carmakers are days
away from halting production as a diplomatic spat between China
and the Netherlands causes a major shortage of microchips, the industry has
warned.
On Wednesday, the European Automobile
Manufacturers’ Association (Acea) said companies are burning through stocks of
chips made by Chinese-owned Nexperia and supplies were “rapidly dwindling”.
With potential alternatives not available
to meet the industry’s demands, it has left carmakers facing a serious crunch
that is soon expected to bring assembly lines to a halt.
The crisis erupted earlier this month when
the Dutch government seized control of Nexperia, which is based in the
Netherlands but finishes its chips in China and is
owned by the firm Wingtech, based in Zhejiang.
The Hague’s decision, taken for national
security reasons, reportedly followed intelligence that the company’s recently
installed Chinese managers were seeking to shut down its European operations.
But in response, Beijing blocked all
exports of Nexperia’s chips from China – triggering a major supply crisis in
Europe that has left car manufacturers and other sectors scrambling for
alternatives.
Talks have been under way between China
and the Netherlands to try to resolve the dispute, but have so far been
unsuccessful.
Sigrid de Vries, the director general of
Acea, said: “All parties to this dispute are working very hard to find a
diplomatic solution.
“At the same time, our members are telling
us that part supplies are already being stopped due to the shortage.
“This means assembly-line stoppages might
only be days away.”
Nexperia’s chips are not high-tech but are
ubiquitous in all kinds of electronic devices.
The widespread disruption has thrown fresh
light on Europe’s dependence on China for the technology at a time when Western
countries are already concerned about Beijing’s vice-like grip on rare earth
supplies.
Acea’s members include top car makers
Volkswagen (VW), Vauxhall owner Stellantis and Renault, as well as various
truck makers.
Germany’s
VW is
among the carmakers that have recently warned they may have to temporarily halt
factory lines.
However, on Wednesday, rival carmaker
Mercedes-Benz Group said it had enough Nexperia chips for the short term.
Chinese microchip
row threatens to shut down European car industry
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
No
more Fed cuts likely this year, US risks stagflation: deVere CEO
Thu,
30 Oct 2025
The
US Federal Reserve has likely made its last rate cut of 2025, and inflation can
be expected to remain elevated while jobs data continues to deteriorate —
conditions that point to the early stages of stagflation.
These
are the predictions of Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, one of the world’s
largest independent financial advisory organisations as the Federal Open Market
Committee voted on Wednesday 10–2 to reduce its benchmark rate by 25 basis
points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, while confirming that quantitative
tightening will end on December 1.
The
decision came amid a sharp split inside the Fed: Governor Stephen Miran, an
appointee of President Donald Trump, argued for a deeper 50-basis-point cut,
while Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid opposed any cut at all.
This
marks a sharp contrast with the earlier part of the year, when policymakers had
moved largely in step. The earlier consensus has now fractured.
Nigel
Green says the outcome and tone signal a shift from coordinated action to
uncertainty at the heart of US monetary policy.
“The
Fed is now divided on direction,” he says. “Some members still see inflation as
the bigger threat; others worry about employment. This disagreement means
policy will move in smaller, slower steps, if at all.
“I
believe that investors expecting another reduction this year should rethink
those assumptions.”
He
adds that the combination of falling job creation and persistent inflation
leaves the US economy exposed to a period of stagnant growth with rising
prices.
“The
labour market is softening while inflation refuses to retreat as much as had
been hoped,” he says.
“This
is the textbook definition of stagflation risk. It’s not a crisis yet, but the
warning signs are flashing. Prices are sticky, wages are slowing, and
confidence is thinning.
“The
Fed can’t fix that quickly without reigniting the very inflation it’s trying to
contain.”
Powell
acknowledged that the government shutdown has frozen the release of key
indicators such as payrolls, retail sales, and inflation updates. The lack of
data has forced the Fed to rely on partial indicators and market measures
instead of comprehensive reports.
“When
policymakers lose sight of the data, they lose confidence in their next step,”
says Green.
“This
is exactly where the Fed is now. It’s working blind on jobs and inflation, so
it’s safer to stop cutting than to risk over-easing.”
He
says ending quantitative tightening reveals that the Fed’s immediate priority
is financial stability rather than stimulus.
More
No more Fed cuts likely this year,
US risks stagflation: deVere CEO
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Toyota to use
solid-state battery in "high-power" EV in 2027
Solid-state
batteries are "high-power, compact and long range", says Toyota -
like the cars they will be fitted to
30 October 2025
Toyota is on track to launch solid state
batteries (SSB) in a production car by 2028 - and is set to deploy the bold new
technology first in a performance electric
car.
Toyota is one of several mainstream car
makers investing in the development of SSB technology - which has long been
viewed as a crucial next step for electric vehicle development, with the
potential to significantly reduce the weight and size of battery packs while
increasing performance.
SSBs are much more energy-dense than the
lithium-ion batteries widely used in EVs today, so allow for much longer ranges
while occupying the same physical footprint - and are
therefore key to reducing the height of electric vehicles.
Toyota announced its plans to eventually
productionise the technology almost a decade ago, and more recently revealed a
prototype pack - saying it would feature in a production car in 2027, and be
capable of providing up to 745 miles of range.
Giving an update on the
programme at the Tokyo motor show, Keiji Kaita,
president of Toyota's Carbon Neutral Engineering Development Centre, said
solid-state technology is still considered "very important in the
future", for the significant improvements in usability and durability it
offers compared to today's conventional liquid-based packs.
He added that the firm is "sticking
on the schedule" to put its first SSB in a production car in 2027 or 2028,
and is also considering commercial vehicle opportunities.
Toyota says SSBs are capable of
producing double the power of a current-generation battery, tripling the
range and are four times more durable - characteristics that will ultimately
define the types of cars they are used for.
"For the all-solid-state battery,
the characteristic is high power, compact and long-range", said Saita.
"The cars will leverage these attributes."
Based on that manifesto, a likely debut
model for the new SSB battery tech is the upcoming Lexus supercar - a radical successor to the LFA which is thought to serve as an electric
sibling model to the upcoming, V8-engined Toyota GR supercar. Its ultra-low
silhouette and promise of super-fast performance would make it a logical
beneficiary of the new batteries.
More
Toyota to use solid-state battery in "high-power" EV in 2027 |
Autocar
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
Another
weekend and the USA now 38 trillion in federal debt. Wracking up a trillion of
new debt every few months, how much longer will the dollar reserve standard
last? Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) next? Have a great weekend
everyone.
"I wasn't worth two cents a few years ago, and now I owe $38
trillion dollars."
Uncle Scam, with apologies to Mark Twain.
