Friday, 21 February 2025

Stocks, Asia Up, USA Down. Oh Canada!

Baltic Dry Index. 941 +37          Brent Crude 76.33

Spot Gold 2927               US 2 Year Yield 4.28 unch.    

US Federal Debt. 36.506 trillion!

No one party can fool all of the people all of the time; that's why we have two parties.

Bob Hope.

While Asia’s stock casinos drift, are the US stock casinos starting to send a message?

A message of stagflation starting to appear.

Hong Kong shares hit three-year high as investors weigh Japan inflation data, Trump tariff threats

Updated Fri, Feb 21 2025 10:51 PM EST

Hong Kong shares hit a three-year high Friday, leading gains in the region as investors weighed inflation data from Japan against tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 2.95% to its highest level since February 2022, according to data from LSEG. The Hang Seng Tech index added 4.67%. Shares of Hong Kong listed Alibaba rose 11% following a significant profit increase for the company in the December quarter, driven by growth in its Cloud Intelligence division and e-commerce sector. Mainland China’s CSI 300 rose 0.4%.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.43%, while the Topix declined 0.33%. Japan’s inflation rate in January climbed to 4%, hitting its highest level since January 2023. Core inflation — which excludes prices of fresh food — rose to 3.2%, beating Reuters’ expectations of 3.1%.

South Korea’s Kospi traded 0.42% lower while the small-cap Kosdaq added 0.43%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 traded 0.59% higher.

Investors will continue keeping an eye on the Japanese yen, which strengthened to a more than two-month high of 150.52 per U.S. dollar on Thursday amid bets of more rate hikes by the Bank of Japan this year. The currency is currently trading at 150.22 against the greenback.

Overnight in the U.S., the three major averages closed lower after the S&P 500 hit record highs for two consecutive days. Investors sold off shares of some popular companies following a weak forecast from retail giant Walmart, which raised concerns about the economic outlook.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 450.94 points, or 1.01%, to end at 44,176.65. The S&P 500 shed 0.43% and closed at 6,117.52, and the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.47% and closed at 19,962.36.

Asia markets live: Japan CPI, yen

Stock futures are little changed after Thursday’s sell-off on Wall Street: Live updates

Updated Fri, Feb 21 2025 12:18 AM EST

U.S. stock futures were little changed early Friday after the major averages slid following a lackluster earnings forecast from retail giant Walmart.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipped 14 points, or less than 0.1%. S&P 500 futures traded 0.09% lower, while Nasdaq-100 futures traded around the flatline.

During Thursday’s regular session, the Dow shed 450.94 points, or 1.01%. The S&P 500 lost 0.43% and retreated from its recent all-time highs, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.47%. Investors pointed to a smattering of reasons behind the market’s sell-off in addition to Walmart’s 6.5% dip, including lingering inflationary concerns and declines in shares of Palantir.

But the market’s fears on Thursday may have been slightly overblown, according to Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management. He added that Friday’s economic data releases, which include the latest purchasing managers’ index readings and January’s existing home sales, will point equities in a direction to end the week.

“There’s a chance that there’s enough overall selling pressure that might drive in some margin hunters on Friday and try to claw back some of the losses that we’re seeing today,” he told CNBC in an interview. “I certainly think you’ll get a sense tomorrow if investors feel like in the near term the moves today are overdone, especially if the PMIs and existing home sales are in line.”

Hogan added: “I don’t think that there’s going to be a piece of economic data that could necessarily stir things up.”

On a week-to-date basis, the S&P 500 is on pace for a slim gain of less than 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite is off 0.3%. The Dow is the underperformer, tracking for a 0.8% loss over the period.

Stock market today: Live updates

In other news, inflation climbs in Japan. Oh Canada!

Japan’s inflation rate climbs to a 2-year high of 4% in January, supporting rate hike calls from BOJ members

Published Thu, Feb 20 2025 6:40 PM EST

Japan’s inflation in January climbed 4% year on year, hitting its highest level since January 2023, further strengthening the case for rate hikes by the country’s central bank.

The core inflation rate — which excludes prices of fresh food — rose to 3.2% from 3% in the prior month and beat economists’ expectations of 3.1%, according to a Reuters poll. This figure was the highest since June 2023.

The so called “core-core” inflation rate, which strips out prices of both fresh food and energy and is closely monitored by the BOJ, climbed slightly to 2.5% from 2.4% in the month before.

The headline inflation rate, which had come in at 3.6% in December, has remained above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for 34 straight months.

Immediately after the data release, the yen strengthened 0.15% to trade at 149.39 against the dollar.

The inflation figures boost the case for rate hikes by the BOJ, which deliberated tightening them at its January meeting, with its summary of opinions warning of inflation risks and weakness in the yen.

“It will be necessary for the Bank to adjust the degree of monetary accommodation from the viewpoint of avoiding the yen’s depreciation and the overheating of financial activities, both of which appear to be due to excessively high expectations of continued monetary easing,” the BOJ summary read.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reportedly said Friday that the central bank stands ready to increase government bond buying if yields rise sharply.

Yields on 10-year Japanese government bonds, which had scaled a 15-year high of 1.447% in the previous session on rate-hike expectations, fell to 1.402% Friday, after having risen for the past four days.

More

Japan's inflation rate climbs to a 2-year high of 4% in January, supporting rate hike calls from BOJ members

Trump jokes that Canada can keep O Canada anthem as 51st US state

Shabnoor Irshad  Fri 21 February 2025 at 5:16 am GMT

Donald Trump joked that Canada can keep ‘O Canada’ anthem as 51st US state while speaking at Republican Governors Association meeting in Washington on Thursday, 20 February.

Trump mused once again about Canada as a 51st U.S. state, continuing the ribbing of the nation’s northern neighbour that has infuriated many Canadians.

The US President noted that Canadians booed the US national anthem ahead of an international hockey game in Montreal.

“I think ultimately they’ll be praising the national anthem. We’ll have to work out some deal ... because I do like the ‘O Canada’ all right,” Trump said, referring to the Canadian national anthem. “It’s a beautiful thing. I think we’re going to have to keep it for the 51st state.”

Trump jokes that Canada can keep O Canada anthem as 51st US state

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Stupid UK government! The answer, more automation. Use AI whenever possible. 

Workers’ rights: A third of small firms plan to cut jobs

Thursday 20 February 2025 6:00 am  |  Updated:  Wednesday 19 February 2025 6:49 pm

A third of small businesses expect to cut jobs in the near future due to fears that the government’s upcoming workers’ rights package will leave them facing painful tribunals and a higher sick pay bill.

A fresh survey from the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) shows that in the fourth quarter of last year, 33 per cent of small employers said they expect to reduce their headcount; nearly double the 17 per cent planning redundancies in the previous three months.

Similarly, fewer businesses are looking to hire. Just 10 per cent of small business bosses are making plans to take on more staff, compared with the 14 per cent between June and September.

Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are set to find themselves on the sharp end of some of the sweeping reforms to workers’ rights that is making its way through Parliament as part of the Employment Rights Bill.

The overhaul – which includes outlawing so-called ‘fire and rehire’ practices and ending ‘exploitative zero-hours contracts’ – has triggered a slew of warnings from bosses and business groups.

They argue that its promise to give workers protection from unfair dismissal “from day one” could make their firms the targets of “vexatious” lawsuits that could last up to two years if they refuse a costly settlement.

Tina MacKenzie, policy chair at the FSB, said: “The figures speak for themselves – plans to allow employees to sue their employers on their first day on the job will wreak havoc on our already fragile economy, while changes to Statutory Sick Pay will make employers think twice about their hiring plans.”

The Trade Unions Congress has previously praised the workers’ rights package as a “much-needed” piece of legislation. But a survey conducted by the FSB – published towards the end of last year – found over 90 per cent of their members were concerned about the some or all of the changes. And three quarters voiced fears relating to unfair dismissal changes.

MacKenzie added: “If taking on staff becomes a legal minefield, businesses will simply stop. That means more people on benefits, a ballooning welfare bill, and a devastating hit to living standards. Those who will be shut out of work because of this Bill deserve better from the Government.”

More

Workers' rights: A third of small firms plan to cut jobs

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Today, something different, more on that CA toxic battery energy storage system fire. Approx, 14 minutes. Do you want live near a Battery Energy Storage System? Plan an escape route if your answer is yes.

Toxic Fallout: Heavy Metals Moss Landing BESS Fire

Toxic Fallout: Heavy Metals Moss Landing BESS Fire

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

UK achieves cheap, rare-earth-free solar cell breakthrough to fight China dominance

19 February 2025

Researchers have developed a new type of back-contact solar cell design that will enable scalable, low-cost manufacturing as it uses a perovskite material and tiny grooves embossed into plastic film. The flexible solar cell design has eliminated the use of expensive and scarce materials, such as indium, making the manufacturing of solar cells more sustainable and affordable.

Developed by researchers at the University of Sheffield, the lightweight, flexible solar films can be used on surfaces that could not normally stand the weight of solar panels, creating broader accessibility to solar power, particularly in developing countries.

This could make a real difference in the drive to replace fossil fuels with sustainable solar energy.

Flexible solar films can be used on multiple types of surfaces

They revealed that these flexible solar films can be used on surfaces such as rooftops and other unconventional surfaces that could not normally stand the weight of solar panels.

“A key advantage of these flexible films is that the panel can be stuck onto any surface. In the UK, you currently have to think twice about adding thick solar panels onto relatively fragile roofs of warehouses that are not really designed to be load-bearing,” said Professor David Lidzey, from the School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences at the University of Sheffield and co-author of the study.

“With this lightweight solar technology, you could  essentially stick it anywhere. This could be a gamechanger for solar energy in low and middle income countries.”

Solar cells made by embossing tiny grooves into a plastic film

Unlike traditional solar cells, these cells are made by embossing tiny grooves into a plastic film and then filling them with the perovskite material

Researchers maintained that the new microgroove structure creates a new type of solar cell that has a back-contact format. Regular devices use a sandwich structure composed of a number of layers deposited in a specific order. The back-contact cells have all the electrical contacts on the back of the device, making it easier and cheaper to manufacture, with the potential for high efficiency.

Published in the ACS Applied Energy Materials journal, the research team fabricated a type of back-contact perovskite solar cell based on 1.5 μm-width grooves that are embossed into a plastic film whose opposing “walls” are selectively coated with either n- or p-type contacts. A perovskite precursor solution is then deposited into the grooves, creating individual photovoltaic devices, according to researchers.

“Solar energy is a strategic priority for our research and one of our key competences is developing innovative techniques for fabricating and depositing solution-processable solar cells,” said Lidzey.

More

UK achieves cheap, rare-earth-free solar cell breakthrough to fight China dominance

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Another weekend and what new travail will Trump’s 24/7 DOGE team come up with for America and planet Earth? Have a great weekend everyone.

"Get a good night's sleep and don't bug anybody without asking me."

 President Richard M. Nixon, on tape to his re-election campaign manager.


Thursday, 20 February 2025

A DOGE Dividend. The Fed Frets On Tariffs. A China Trade Deal?

Baltic Dry Index. 904 +63          Brent Crude 75.85

Spot Gold 2946               US 2 Year Yield 4.28 -0.01    

US Federal Debt. 36.502 trillion!

Some people are born losers; others acquire the knack gradually.

W. C. Fields.

While the Fed worries that Trump’s tariffs will cause inflation, President Trump is thinking of giving Americans a 20 percent Department of Government Efficiency “dividend.”

In Ukraine war news, a nasty war of words between Presidents Trump and Zelensky.

Trump sees a trade deal with China.

In the stock casinos, a tale of two centers, America v Asia.

Asia markets down as Trump tariff threats, potentially higher-for-longer U.S. rates dent sentiment

Updated Thu, Feb 20 2025 10:47 PM EST

Asia-Pacific markets fell Thursday, as investors weighed U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on autos, chips and pharmaceutical imports as well as the Federal Reserve potentially keeping rates higher for longer.

Trump, who said the duties could be implemented as soon as April 2, did not specify whether they will be targeted at imports from certain countries or be broad-based.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 started the day 0.37% lower, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 1.13%.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 dropped 1.19%, while the broader Topix index fell 1.06%.

In South Korea, the Kospi declined 0.53%, while the small-cap Kosdaq lost 0.17%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down 1.39%, declining for the fourth straight day.

The country’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in January, in line with Reuters’ estimates.

Overnight in the U.S., stocks continued to rise even as the Federal Reserve meeting minutes showed the bank was concerned about U.S. President Donald Trump tariffs, and would prefer a further decline in inflation before lowering rates.

The S&P 500 rose 0.24%, settling at 6,144.15 and earning its second record close in a row. The index also touched a fresh all-time high during the session. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.07% to close at 20,056.25, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 71.25 points, or 0.16%, to end at 44,627.59.

Asia markets live update: Stocks down on Trump tariff worries

S&P 500 futures inch lower after index notches fresh all-time high and record close: Live updates

Updated Thu, Feb 20 2025 7:36 PM EST

S&P 500 futures moved lower Wednesday evening on the heels of the broad market index scoring a new all-time high and a closing record in the regular trading session.

Futures tied to the S&P 500, along with Nasdaq-100 futures, fell nearly 0.2%. Meanwhile, futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 59 points, or 0.1%.

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 posted its second consecutive winning session after hitting another all-time high. The Nasdaq Composite and the 30-stock Dow also finished in positive territory as investors shrugged off President Donald Trump’s warning of more tariffs.

“We have been using the word ‘resilient,’” Elyse Ausenbaugh, head of investment strategy at JPMorgan Wealth Management said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Wednesday. She added that she expects another high single-digit total return upside from here.

“We think that 2025 is going to be a year that investors have a chance to build on strength,” Ausenbaugh continued. “We see more room for this market rally to run.”

Investors also digested newly released minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting. The minutes showed that the central bank’s officials last month agreed that inflation needs to come down more before they cut interest rates again.

Elsewhere on the economic front, investors will be watching for weekly jobless claims data, which is due at 8:30 a.m. ET.

More earnings are also on deck, with big names such as Walmart and Alibaba set to report Thursday before the bell.

Stock market today: Live updates

Fed officials are worried about tariffs’ impact on inflation and see rate cuts on hold, minutes show

Published Wed, Feb 19 2025 2:01 PM EST Updated Wed, Feb 19 2025 5:34 PM EST

Federal Reserve officials in January agreed they would need to see inflation come down more before lowering interest rates further, and expressed concern about the impact President Donald Trump’s tariffs would have in making that happen, according to meeting minutes released Wednesday.

Policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously decided at the meeting to hold their key policy rate steady after three consecutive cuts totaling a full percentage point in 2024.

In reaching the decision, members commented on the potential impacts from the new administration, including chatter about the tariffs as well as the impact from reduced regulations and taxes. The committee noted that current policy is “significantly less restrictive” than it had been before the rate cuts, giving members time to evaluate conditions before making any additional moves.

Members said that the current policy provides “time to assess the evolving outlook for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation, with the vast majority pointing to a still-restrictive policy stance. Participants indicated that, provided the economy remained near maximum employment, they would want to see further progress on inflation before making additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate.“

Officials noted concerns they had about the potential for policy changes to keep inflation above the Fed’s target.

The president already has instituted some tariffs but in recent days has threatened to expand them.

In remarks to reporters Tuesday, Trump said he is looking at 25% duties on autos, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors that would accelerate through the year. While he did not delve too far into specifics, the tariffs would take trade policy to another level and pose further threats to prices at a time when inflation has eased but is still above the Fed’s 2% goal.

FOMC members cited, according to the meeting summary, “the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy as well as strong consumer demand. Business contacts in a number of Districts had indicated that firms would attempt to pass on to consumers higher input costs arising from potential tariffs.“

They further noted “upside risks to the inflation outlook. In particular, participants cited the possible effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy.“

Since the meeting, most central bank officials have spoken in cautious tones about where policy is headed from here. Most view the current level of rates in a position where they can take their time when evaluating how to proceed.

More

Fed minutes January 2025:

Trump says he’s weighing giving 20% of DOGE savings to Americans

Published Wed, Feb 19 2025 10:52 AM EST

U.S. President Donald Trump revealed on Wednesday that he’s considering sending 20% of the money saved by the Department of Government Efficiency advisory group to Americans.

“There’s even under consideration a new concept where we give 20% of the DOGE savings to American citizens and 20% goes to paying down debt,” Trump said during his remarks at the FII Priority Summit in Miami Beach, Fla.

His remarks came after Elon Musk said in a post on X Tuesday that he “Will check with the President” on a proposal to send U.S. households tax refund checks funded by savings created by DOGE’s cost-cutting campaign.

That was in response to a separate post from James Fishback, CEO of the Azoria investment firm, suggesting that Trump has the opportunity to issue a so-called DOGE Dividend.

Musk has said that his goal is to cut federal spending by $2 trillion, out of a $6.75 trillion annual budget in the latest fiscal year ended last Sept. 30. If that were met, Fishback suggests taking 20% of that, or $400 billion, and distributing it to taxpayers. That would amount to approximately $5,000 per household, he said.

“When a breach of this magnitude happens in the private sector, the counterparty, at minimum, refunds the customer since they failed to deliver what was promised,” Fishback wrote in his proposal. “It’s high time for the federal government to do the same, and refund money back to taxpayers given what DOGE has uncovered.”

More

Trump says he's weighing giving 20% of DOGE savings to Americans

Trump says new trade deal with China 'possible'

February 20, 2025 (Mainichi Japan)

WASHINGTON (Kyodo) -- U.S. President Donald Trump said Wednesday he believes it is "possible" to strike a new trade deal with China, partly because he has a "very good relationship" with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.

"But remember, he loves China, and I love the USA. So, you know, right there, there's a little bit of competitiveness," Trump told reporters on Air Force One, claiming that he achieved a "great trade deal" with China during his first presidency.

He asserted the past deal should have helped American farmers and manufacturers significantly but China's commitments to remove trade barriers did not turn out in that way, blaming his predecessor Joe Biden for failing to push Beijing to adhere to its promises.

Noting that French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer are due to visit Washington "soon," Trump said, "We'll have, ultimately, President Xi."

In a TV interview aired last week, without offering details, Trump said he had spoken to Xi since returning to the White House for a nonconsecutive second term on Jan. 20.

The Trump administration has already imposed an additional 10 tariffs on goods from China, accusing Beijing of not doing enough to stop the shipment to North America of precursors necessary to make fentanyl, the leading cause of overdose deaths in the United States.

Trump has also frequently complained that China has a huge trade surplus with the United States. But at the same time, he has repeatedly shown his willingness to engage with Xi to discuss not only trade imbalances but also many other issues, including nuclear disarmament.

On Wednesday, Trump did not elaborate further but also said his administration will be speaking to China about the fate of TikTok's operation in the United States.

More

Trump says new trade deal with China 'possible' - The Mainichi

In other news, Wall Street favorite Nikola, from 30 billion to zero. Fools and their money comes to mind.

Embattled EV maker Nikola files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection

Published Wed, Feb 19 2025 7:41 AM EST

DETROIT — Nikola Corp. — an auto startup that was once a favorite of Wall Street analysts and retail investors — filed for bankruptcy protection after failing to secure a buyer or raise additional funds to maintain operations.

The filing marks the finale of the Phoenix-based company’s yearslong fall from grace. At its peak in 2020, Nikola was valued more than Ford Motor at $30 billion, inked a multibillion-dollar deal with General Motors and was considered the pinnacle of auto startups to go public through reverse mergers and special purpose acquisition companies.

The company’s downfall has played out over years, ignited by scandals and lies involving its founder and former CEO and chairman Trevor Milton. The fast-talking, energetic, disgraced executive was convicted of wire fraud and securities fraud in 2022 for misleading investors about Nikola’s operations and zero-emissions technology.

The controversies were first made public by short-seller Hindenburg Research after the deal with GM that included the Detroit automaker taking a $2 billion stake in the startup.

Nikola’s core products are all-electric and fuel cell electric semitrucks, which it began producing in 2022. As of the third quarter of last year, the company had only produced 600 of the vehicles since then. Many of those vehicles have been recalled due to defects, costing the automaker tens of millions of dollars.

Since moving from chairman to CEO in 2023, Steve Girsky has kept Nikola moving forward, including its production of zero-emissions trucks, but the company’s capital has been dwindling.

Nikola warned investors on its third-quarter conference call that the company only had enough cash to support its business into the first quarter of 2025 but not beyond. Nikola reported $198 million in cash to end the third quarter.

Girsky on the call in October said Nikola was “actively talking to lots of potential different partners who value what we do and value what we’ve built.”

Girsky, a former bank analyst and GM executive, took Nikola public through his SPAC in June 2020. It was a catalyst for more EV companies to go public through SPACs.

Similarly to Nikola, most, if not all, have failed to live up to their initial expectations. Many were the center of federal investigations, scandals and executive upheavals.

Nikola’s stock has traded under $2 per share since early December. Factoring out a 1-for-30 reverse stock split last year, FactSet reports Nikola’s all-time closing price was nearly $80 in June 2020.

Nikola files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection

You can fool some of the people some of the time -- and that's enough to make a decent living.

W. C. Fields.

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

‘Alarm bells’ for Bank of England as inflation accelerates to three per cent

Wednesday 19 February 2025 7:03 am  |  Updated:  Wednesday 19 February 2025 7:34 am

Inflation picked up faster than expected at the start of the year, official data shows, as concerns grow about the persistence of price pressures in the economy.

The headline rate of inflation picked up to 3.0 per cent in January, according to new figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

This was up from 2.5 per cent in December and above the 2.8 per cent expected by City traders.

“Inflation increased sharply this month to its highest annual rate since March last year,” Grant Fitzner, chief economist at the ONS said.

Services inflation, the most important gauge of domestic price pressures, jumped to 5.0 per cent in January, up from 4.2 per cent in December, albeit slightly below the Bank of England’s forecast.

Core inflation, which strips out volatile components like food and energy, increased to 3.7 per cent, up from 3.2 per cent previously but in line with expectations.

“The leap in CPI inflation was no surprise, but it was larger than everyone expected,” Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics said.

Airfares to blame

The ONS said that airfares were a key factor behind the increase in inflation. Airfares tend to rise in December and fall in January, but the trend was “less pronounced” this year, it said.

This is because December’s data was collected on days which traditionally see lower demand, like Christmas Eve and New Year’s Eve, which meant prices were lower.

So although prices did fall in January, it was from a lower base. Airfares fell by 19.0 per cent in January, compared to negative 38.9 per cent a year ago

“The rise was driven by air fares not falling as much as we usually see at this time of year, partly impacted by the timing of flights over Christmas and New Year,” Fitzner said.

Other factors driving the overall increase in inflation were the introduction of VAT on private school fees, which saw prices rise by 13 per cent in the month, having not increased at all last year.

Prices for food and non-alcoholic drinks also rose at a faster pace than last year, particularly for meat, bread and cereals.

Concern for Bank of England

The figures come a day after new figures showed an acceleration in wage growth in the final three months of last year, which took regular private sector pay to its highest level since November 2023.

Combined with an uptick in inflation, the figures point to the lingering inflationary risks facing the UK economy, which will force the Bank of England to only cut interest rates at a “gradual” pace.

Zara Noakes, global market analyst at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the figures will “raise alarm bells at Threadneedle Street”.

More

Inflation accelerates to 3.0 per cent in blow for Bank of England

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

No increased risk to child of Covid-19 infection or vaccination in pregnancy

18 December 2025

Contracting Covid-19 or being vaccinated against it during pregnancy does not increase the risk of child developmental health issues, research indicates.

A study of the majority of children born in Scotland during the pandemic – 25,000 babies – found no link between concerns with a child’s development at 13 to 15 months and the mother contracting the virus during pregnancy.

Receiving the vaccine while pregnant also had no connection with issues in the infants in developing skills such as speech, thinking, movement and language, the Edinburgh University study found.

These important findings can help inform clinical guidance, and reassure pregnant individuals of the safety of Covid-19 vaccines

Researcher Iain Hardie said: “Our study suggests that neither SARS-CoV-2 infection, nor Covid-19 vaccination during pregnancy impact foetal brain development and subsequent child development up to age 13-15 months.

“These important findings can help inform clinical guidance, and reassure pregnant individuals of the safety of Covid-19 vaccines.”

The team linked data from a previous Covid-19 in Pregnancy in Scotland study on virus infections and Covid-19 vaccinations while pregnant to developmental concerns raised at routine health reviews.

The reviews recorded concerns with a child’s development aged 13-15 months raised by the parents, caregivers or health visitors.

Researchers found no evidence of a link between developmental concerns at that age and their mothers having either contracted Covid-19 or been vaccinated against it during pregnancy, regardless of the trimester the infection or vaccination occurred.

More

No increased risk to child of Covid-19 infection or vaccination in pregnancy

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

New 2D carbon material is tougher than graphene and resists cracking

18 February 2025

Researchers have found that a two-dimensional carbon material is tougher than graphene and resists cracking—even the strongest crack under pressure, a problem materials scientists have long been grappling with. For instance, carbon-derived materials like graphene are among the strongest on Earth, but once established, cracks propagate rapidly through them, making them prone to sudden fracture.

A new carbon material known as monolayer amorphous carbon (MAC) however, is both strong and tough. In fact, MAC—which was recently synthesized by the group of Barbaros Özyilmaz at the National University of Singapore (NUS)—is eight times tougher than graphene, according to a new study from Rice University scientists and collaborators, published in the journal Matter.

Like graphene, MAC is also a 2D or single atom-thick material. But unlike graphene where atoms are arranged in an ordered (crystalline) hexagonal lattice, MAC is a composite material that incorporates both crystalline and amorphous regions. It is this composite structure that gives MAC its characteristic toughness, suggesting that a composite design approach could be a productive way to make 2D materials less brittle.

"This unique design prevents cracks from propagating easily, allowing the material to absorb more energy before breaking," said Bongki Shin, a materials science and nanoengineering graduate student who is the study's first author.

This is great news for 2D materials, which have enabled transformative innovations across multiple fields, from faster and more efficient electronics to high-capacity energy storage, advanced sensors and wearable technologies. To be able to put their extraordinary properties to even further use, materials scientists have to contend with their brittleness, which has so far limited their real-world application.

To make 2D nanomaterials tougher, one can either add reinforcing nanostructures to the thin films—a method described in the study as "extrinsic toughening"—or introduce modifications within the plane of the material—"intrinsic toughening." The in-plane structure of MAC offered an ideal case study for testing the fracture toughness of nanocomposites made up of ordered (crystalline) regions embedded inside a disordered (amorphous) matrix.

"We believe that this structure-based toughening strategy could work for other 2D materials, so this work opens up exciting possibilities for advanced materials design," said Jun Lou, professor of materials science and nanoengineering and of chemistry who is a corresponding author on the study.

Rice researchers used in situ tensile testing inside a scanning electron microscope to observe cracks forming and propagating in real time. This allowed them to directly observe how the MAC nanocomposite structure resists crack propagation. The group led by Markus Buehler at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology ran molecular dynamics simulations, which let them zoom in at the atomic level to understand how the mix of crystalline and amorphous regions affects fracture energy.

"This hadn't been done before because creating and imaging an ultrathin, disordered material at the atomic scale is extremely challenging," said Yimo Han, assistant professor of materials science and nanoengineering and corresponding author on the study. "However, thanks to recent advances in nanomaterial synthesis and high-resolution imaging, we were able to uncover a new approach to making 2D materials tougher without adding extra layers."

More information: Bongki Shin et al, Intrinsic toughening in monolayer amorphous carbon nanocomposites, Matter (2025). DOI: 10.1016/j.matt.2025.102000

Provided by Rice University

New 2D carbon material is tougher than graphene and resists cracking

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Money will not buy happiness, but it will let you be unhappy in nice places.

W. C. Fields. 

Wednesday, 19 February 2025

A USA Russia Deal? Who Won the Washington-London Biden War Party War?

Baltic Dry Index. 841 +35            Brent Crude 76.03

Spot Gold 2935               US 2 Year Yield 4.29 +0.03    

US Federal Debt. 36.498 trillion!

The cure for admiring the House of Lords is to go and look at it.

Walter Bagehot.

With a USA-Russia reproachment back on the table, who won the NATO proxy war in Ukraine? That poor, duped Ukrainians lost is a given, but for what?

Not that the global stock casinos care in the least as the great disconnect enters its final days.

Asia-Pacific stocks mostly fall as investors assess a slew of economic data from the region

Updated Wed, Feb 19 2025 11:20 PM EST

Asia-Pacific stocks were mostly down Wednesday, breaking ranks with Wall Street that saw the S&P 500 close at a record high as investors appeared to look past tariffs and inflation headwinds.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 fell 0.43% while the broader Topix index was down 0.34% as the country reported a two-year high trade deficit.

Business sentiment for Japanese manufacturers rose for the second month in February, results from the Reuters Tankan poll indicates. The manufacturers’ sentiment index rose to plus 3 — its highest level since November — from plus 2 in January.

Over in South Korea, the Kospi was trading 1.89% higher, while the small-cap Kosdaq advanced 0.61%.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 Index was up 0.39% in choppy trade. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was down 0.28%.

Indian stocks continued their decline with the benchmark Nifty 50 trading 0.25% lower, while the BSE Sensex index started the day down 0.45%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.78%, a day after the country’s central bank cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.10%, marking its first easing since November 2020.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates by 50 basis points to 3.75% in its policy meeting, in line with Reuters’ estimates. The marks the central bank’s fourth straight cut and comes as its economy slows.

The New Zealand dollar weakened 0.3% to 0.5716 against the U.S. dollar.

Overnight in the U.S., all three indexes rose, with the S&P 500 closing at a record high after stocks rallied seconds before the closing bell. The broad market index gained 0.24% to a record close of 6,129.58, after touching an intraday record of 6,129.63 before the final bell. The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.07% at 20,041.26, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 10 points, or 0.02%, to finish the session at 44,556.34.

The energy sector was the best-performer in the S&P 500, rising 1.9%, while tech stocks also ticked up.

Asia markets live updates: Stocks mostly fall; RBNZ cuts rates

European markets expected to open in mixed territory ahead of earnings, UK inflation data

Updated Wed, Feb 19 2025 12:25 AM EST

European markets are expected to open in mixed territory Wednesday, with investors gearing up for more earnings releases and the latest inflation data from the U.K.

The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index is expected to open 5 points lower at 8,763, Germany’s DAX up 9 points at 22,868, France’s CAC down 12 points at 8,209 and Italy’s FTSE MIB 58 points higher at 38,686, according to data from IG.

Earnings on Wednesday come from BAE SystemsGlencoreRio TintoKoninklijke Philips and Carrefour. Europe’s largest lender HSBC earlier on Wednesday reported an annual pre-tax profit of $32.31 billion, marginally missing analysts’ estimates, as the bank’s net interest income declined by $3.1 billion from a year earlier.

Data releases Wednesday include the latest U.K. inflation data. Economists polled by Reuters expect the U.K.’s consumer price index to have risen to 2.8% in January, up from 2.5% the previous month.

Asia-Pacific stocks were mostly lower overnight, breaking ranks with Wall Street that saw the S&P 500 close at a record high on Tuesday as investors appeared to look past tariffs and inflation headwinds. U.S. stock futures were little changed on Tuesday night.

Europe markets live updates: stock moves, UK inflation data, earnings

Stock futures are little changed after S&P 500 clinches record high: Live updates

Updated Wed, Feb 19 2025 12:47 AM EST

Stock futures were little changed early Wednesday after a winning session for stocks.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 38 points, hovering just above the flatline. S&P futures and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.09% and 0.13%, respectively.

In after-hours trading, data center company Arista Networks slid 4% even though its quarterly earnings and revenue, as well as its guidance, exceeded Wall Street’s expectations. Shares of Bumble fell about 18% on disappointing first-quarter guidance, while homebuilder Toll Brothers slipped nearly 5% on an earnings and revenue miss.

Investors are coming off of a trading session that saw the S&P 500 notch a fresh record high, even as concerns around sticky inflation and President Donald Trump’s trade policies persist. The index has been trading near its record high since the start of the year.

On Tuesday, the broad market index added 0.24% to close at 6,129.58, after touching an intraday record of 6,129.63 before the closing bell. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite edged higher by 0.07% to end at 20,041.26, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 10 points, or 0.02%, to 44,556.34.

“The stock market’s resiliency has been impressive year-to-date as investors refuse to ‘back down’ in the face of rising negative sentiment and concerns about tariff and inflation headlines,” Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler, said in a Tuesday note. “We expect market conditions to remain choppy as investors rotate ‘down-cap’ amid declining Treasury yields, weakening crude oil, and a pullback in the U.S. dollar.”

Stock market today: Live updates

In other news, the war President Macron to his credit, did so much to try to prevent by negotiation, could have been avoided, but the Washington-London War Party rushed in Boris Johnson to Kiev to promise NATO support and promise a Ukraine “win.”

Once Russia learned how to fight a 21st century drone war, that Ukraine-NATO “win” was never remotely achievable. For what did all those Ukrainian and Russians die and get maimed for in Biden’s war?

Trump says Ukraine ‘should never have started it’ in comments about war with Russia

Published Tue, Feb 18 2025 5:45 PM EST

President Donald Trump suggested Tuesday that Ukraine was responsible for Russia’s invasion of the country three years ago, arguing Kyiv could have made a deal to avoid the conflict.

“You should have never started it,” Trump said of Ukraine while criticizing President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who had expressed concern that his country was not included in talks between the U.S. and Russia on Tuesday in Saudi Arabia.

“I think I have the power to end this war, and I think it’s going very well. But today I heard, ‘Oh, well, we weren’t invited.’ Well, you’ve been there for three years,” Trump told reporters at his Mar-a-Lago resort. “You should have never started it. You could have made a deal.”

Trump went on to say: “I could have made a deal for Ukraine that would have given them almost all of the land, everything, almost all of the land, and no people would have been killed, and no city would have been demolished, and not one dome would have been knocked down. But they chose not to do it that way.”

The Ukrainian Embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Trump’s remarks.

The U.S. and Russia on Tuesday agreed in high-level talks to re-establish embassy staffing, diverging from previous American policy on the matter. Zelenskyy said earlier Tuesday that “Ukraine did not know anything about it.”

Trump, who said last week that he and President Vladimir Putin spoke by phone about ending the war, has increasingly made comments that have bolstered the Russian president. He said during an interview last month with Fox News that Ukraine should not have fought when it was invaded by Russia.

Trump says Ukraine 'should never have started it' in comments about war with Russia

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

No real English gentleman, in his secret soul, was ever sorry for the death of a political economist.

Walter Bagehot.

Bank of England boss sends huge 3-word warning as UK economy fears soar

18 December 2025

The Governor of the Bank of England has said the UK is experiencing a "weak growth environment" amid a period of "heightened uncertainty" around the world.

Andrew Bailey, speaking at an event held by think tank Bruegel in Belgium, said: "Today, we're in a period of, frankly, heightened uncertainty - we all know what's going on around us."

Mr Bailey said continuing disinflation in the economy - meaning cooling price rises - had allowed the Bank to cut interest rates for the third time this month. adding: "Because we are facing a weak growth environment in the UK.

"It is quite hard to work out to what extent that weaker growth story is a result of supply-side weakness, or supply-and-demand-side weakness.

"The second thing is we are facing a short-run hump in inflation that's going to go up ... nearly all of that comes from administered prices, particularly in the energy market, water and some other public services."

The latest official figures show the UK economy unexpectedly grew by a measly 0.1% between October and December last year. Experts had expected it to have shrunk over the final quarter of 2024.

It was yet another blow to the Labour Government, which had pledged to catapult Britain's economic growth to the highest among the G7 group of developed countries before rowing back on the commitment to focus on raising living standards.

----Threadneedle Street has already halved its growth forecast for this year. The Bank said earlier this month that it expects the economy to grow by 0.75% in 2025, down from its previous estimate of 1.5%.

The impact of higher inflation resulting from higher wage and National Insurance costs for employers is one concern for the Bank on top of increased utility bills and potential US trade tariffs also pushing prices up.

More

Bank of England boss sends huge 3-word warning as UK economy fears soar

Wage growth accelerates for third straight month

Tuesday 18 February 2025 7:06 am  |  Updated:  Tuesday 18 February 2025 7:57 am

Wage growth accelerated again in the final quarter of last year, new figures show, in a reminder that the UK economy still faces sticky price pressures.

According to figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), annual regular pay growth averaged 5.9 per cent in the final three months of last year, up from 5.6 per cent previously and the fastest pace since last April.

Total pay growth – which includes bonuses – hit 6.0 per cent in the same period, also up from 5.6 per cent. This was the fastest rate of wage growth since November 2023.

“Growth in pay, excluding bonuses, rose for a third consecutive time, with increases in both the private and public sector,” Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the ONS said.

Pay growth in the private sector averaged 6.2 per cent between October and December, the highest level since November 2023.

Labour market stagnant

Unemployment, meanwhile, remained steady at 4.4 per cent. Economists had expected to see a slight increase to 4.5 per cent.

Other indicators suggested that the labour market was broadly stagnant. The number of payrolled employees fell by just 3,000 between October and December, compared to the previous period.

The early estimate for January suggests a marginally better outlook, with the number of payrolled employees rising by 0.1 per cent, although these estimates are likely to be revised.

Multiple business surveys have pointed to a bleak outlook for the jobs market in recent months, as firms face the impact of the government’s tax hikes.

But the official data suggests the jobs market is proving more resilient. “All in, it looks like the labour market is holding up much better than the dire employment surveys would suggest,” Thomas Pugh, an economist at RSM said.

But Nicholas Hyett, investment manager at Wealth Club, warned that the strength of the labour market could fade fast in the new year.

A survey published earlier this week showed that a quarter of firms expect to make redundancies in the next quarter, the highest proportion in a decade, excluding the pandemic.

“The government will be watching the next few months’ numbers through their fingers,” Hyett said.

Wage growth a concern

While the figures were roughly in line with City forecasts, the acceleration in pay growth suggests that inflationary pressures remain elevated and may prevent the Bank of England from cutting interest rates aggressively.

Michael Brown, chief research strategist at Pepperstone said the rate of pay growth was “clearly incompatible” with inflation returning to target sustainably.

More

Wage growth accelerates for third straight month

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Donald Trump moves to cut funds for schools enforcing COVID-19 vaccine mandates

February 16, 2025

Schools, colleges, and states that require students to be vaccinated against COVID-19 may lose federal funding under an executive order signed by President Donald Trump.

The directive instructs the Education Department and Health and Human Services to create a plan to end vaccine mandates and identify discretionary federal grants that could be revoked for noncompliance.

Limited national impact

The order is expected to have minimal impact nationwide, as most schools and colleges have already dropped COVID-19 vaccine mandates. Additionally, several states have enacted legislation prohibiting such mandates.

Rationale for the Order

Citing the “incredibly low risk” of serious illness from COVID-19 for children and young adults, the White House stated that denying education due to vaccine requirements is an “intolerable infringement on personal freedom.” The order aligns with Trump’s campaign promise that he would not allocate “one penny” to schools enforcing COVID-19 vaccine mandates.

Scope of the policy

The executive order applies solely to COVID-19 vaccines and does not impact existing state-mandated immunizations for diseases such as measles, mumps, polio, tetanus, and chickenpox. States continue to allow medical and religious exemptions for required vaccinations.

Existing COVID-19 vaccine policies

While many colleges initially required students to be immunized against COVID-19 during the pandemic, most have since dropped these mandates. A few institutions, including Swarthmore and Oberlin, still require vaccinations for students living on campus, but they provide exemptions for medical and religious reasons. At the state level, mandates were rare—California considered adding COVID-19 to its list of required vaccines for K-12 students but ultimately abandoned the plan. Illinois briefly required college students to be vaccinated before lifting the rule.

More

Donald Trump moves to cut funds for schools enforcing COVID-19 vaccine mandates

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Battery storage climate and energy impact tracker launched in 'UK first'

18 February 2025

Pulse Clean Energy, LCP Delta and National Wealth Fund create tool to gauge impact of battery storage on both the environment and energy system

An open-source tool designed to track and certify the impact of battery storage facilities on the UK environment and energy system has been launched today by Pulse Clean Energy, as part of an initiative supported by LCP Delta and the UK's National Wealth Fund.

While batteries reduce carbon emissions by storing excess energy from renewable sources and feeding it back into the grid at times of peak demand, thereby reducing reliance on fossil fuels, there has previously been no standardised way to measure this impact, according to Pulse Clean Energy.

As such, the battery storage and grid stability specialist said asset owners, investors, and policymakers had until now been left without reliable, transparent data to substantiate sustainability claims and make informed improvements.

In what it claims is a UK first, however, the firm has today launched the UK Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) Carbon Emissions Calculator, which it said uses real-time data from the UK's electricity market operator Elexon to calculate emissions from the electricity system for every half-hour period spread over a specific timeframe, such as daily, monthly or yearly. That data can then be combined with the actions of a specific battery asset or portfolio to estimate emissions generated from charging a battery, as well as the emissions avoided by discharging it, it said.

The difference between the emissions generated by the battery facility and the emissions avoided through its use provides the net-impact figure from the facility, it explained. If that figure is positive, it means the battery storage facility is a net-emitter of greenhouse gases, and if negative it means the asset is achieving net-abatement of CO2.

The firm said the tool uses marginal rather than average emissions calculations as this approach better represents the impact of batteries on the UK power system, and requires users to upload a record of an asset or portfolio's charge and discharge actions by half hour. The tracker then takes the data, runs the calculations, and returns the results for the user to download, with a certificate confirming the results have been produced by the tool, it added.

More, free subscription required.

Battery storage climate and energy impact tracker launched in 'UK first' | BusinessGreen News

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Be wiser than other people if you can, but do not tell them so.

Lord Chesterfield, statesman 1694-1773.