Baltic Dry Index. 1663 +198 Brent Crude 70.50
Spot Gold 3360 US 2 Year Yield 3.90 +0.04
US Federal Debt. 37.100 trillion
US GDP 30.134 trillion.
“Do not underestimate the power of a raging bull, and the strength of a bear in stock market. Both have the power to trample you to death if you fight against them.”
Benjamin Lee
Another week, and another week of President Trump’s lunacy of making economic war on friend and foe alike.
At government-to-government level, it doesn’t really matter, they need, one way or another, to get along.
At population to population level, it’s close to disastrous. It puts, “American’s” trying to dictate terms to the “under menschen”, of many different faiths, ethnicities, and traditions and colours; a policy designed to backfire on ordinary innocent Americans.
In reality, most Americans aren’t trying to be dictators of the world, and it probably wouldn’t work if they tried. But that isn’t the ROW perception. The longer this goes on, the large the population-to-population damage occurs. When unemployment starts to rise in the Rest of the World and America, due to tariffs, as it will, what then?
But, from what I can see, Trump’s trampling on so many other people’s sensibilities, is already counter productive to America’s image and respect.
The longer it goes on, the more likely the damage globally is going to occur.
Later this week, the latest US inflation numbers.
No one should ever sit in this office over 70 years old, and that I know.
Dwight D. Eisenhower
Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed as investors
assess Trump's 30% tariffs on EU and Mexico
Updated Mon, Jul 14 2025 12:07 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Monday,
as investors assessed the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s 30% tariffs
on the European Union and Mexico imposed over the weekend.
The president revealed on his social
media site, Truth Social, on Saturday that the tariffs on both countries
would start on Aug. 1.
Leaders of the EU and Mexico indicated
that they intend to keep negotiating with the Trump administration this month
in an attempt to agree on a lower rate.
Here’s a snapshot of how markets are
faring:
Indian stocks open lower
Indian stocks fell at the open Monday,
amid mixed trading in other key indexes in Asia-Pacific.
The 50-stock benchmark Nifty 50 dropped 0.43% while
the Sensex index lost 0.26% as of 9.35 a.m. Indian Standard time.
Bitcoin crosses $120,000 threshold to hit
fresh record
Bitcoin extended its gains
and crossed the $120,000 threshold to hit a fresh record high Monday.
As of 12.03 p.m. Singapore time, the
cryptocurrency had gained 1.35% to trade at $120,732.42.
China’s exports beat expectations in June,
while imports rebound for the first time this year
China’s exports beat expectations in June
as businesses continued to rush out shipments to capitalize on a temporary
tariff reprieve ahead of an August deadline.
Exports jumped 5.8% in June in U.S. dollar
terms from a year earlier, customs data showed Monday, exceeding Reuters’ poll
estimates of a 5% jump.
Imports rose 1.1% from a year earlier.
While missing economists’ expectations of a 1.3% rise, that marked the first
time that imports have grown this year, reversing the trend of declining
imports this year amid sluggish domestic demand.
Japan’s 10-year government bond yield
rises to near two-month high
The yield on 10-year Japanese government
bonds (JGBs) rose 5.5 basis points on Monday to touch 1.554% as at 11.20
a.m. local time, after briefly hitting its highest level since May 22 earlier
in the session.
Yields fall when bond prices rise.
Meanwhile, the yield on 30-year JGBs rose
6.5 basis points to 3.111%, while the 20-year JGB yield ticked up marginally to
2.56%.
The two-year JGB yield edged up marginally
to 0.775%, while the five-year JGB yield was last seen up nearly 4 basis points
to 1.066%.
Asia
stock markets today: live updates
Dow futures drop nearly 200 points after Trump
slaps 30% tariff on Mexico and the EU: Live updates
Updated Sun, Jul 13 2025 6:27 PM EDT
U.S. equity futures slid on Sunday evening
as Wall Street contends with continued tariff risks and second-quarter earnings
on deck.
S&P 500 futures lost
0.4%, while Nasdaq 100
futures dropped 0.5%. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell
183 points, or 0.4%.
On Saturday, President Donald Trump said the U.S.
will impose 30%
tariffs on the European Union and Mexico starting Aug. 1. Leaders of
the EU and Mexico indicated that they intend to keep talking with the Trump
administration this month in an attempt to agree on a lower rate.
The announcement comes ahead of inflation
readings this week, which will give investors a better sense of how the
Trump tariffs already in effect are being felt throughout the economy.
“Inflation is here with tariffs. It’s just
a question of who eats it. Those companies that have pricing power means that
consumers are going to eat it. Those companies that don’t have pricing power
means that companies are going to eat it via a cut in their profit margin,”
Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group, said
Friday on CNBC’s “Fast Money.”
Sunday’s move in futures comes after a
negative week for stocks, although the major averages are still near record
highs. The S&P 500 dipped
0.31%, its first negative week in three. The Dow fell 1.02%, breaking a
three-week win streak.
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite inched down
0.08%, snapping a three-week winning streak.
Earnings season is set to ramp up later in
the week. Major banks, including JPMorgan Chase, will deliver quarterly reports
starting Tuesday.
Another potential factor for investors to
monitor is the rift between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve.
On Sunday, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told ABC News that
President Trump can fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell “if
there’s cause.”
Trump officials are probing the costs of
renovation of the Federal Reserve’s main building in Washington, D.C., while
the president has repeatedly criticized Powell for not lowering interest rates.
The central bank has pushed
back against some of the criticisms of the renovation project.
Stock
market today live updates
Global week ahead: Trade tensions cloud earnings
and the G20 heads south
Published Sun, Jul 13 2025 2:15 AM EDT
Earnings season always seems to roll
around with alarming frequency.
The newsroom approaches each quarter with
a nervous energy, but this summer it feels especially heightened. Recent market
records in both the U.S. and Europe, alongside an unpredictable economic
environment, paint a complicated picture for the second half.
It all kicks off on Tuesday with America’s
banking behemoths, as attention switches from the White House back to Wall
Street.
But U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies
still loom large, with Goldman Sachs predicting that, this quarter, U.S.
earnings will start to show the impact of the tariffs.
The investment bank’s economists see
“conflicting messages on the margin outlook” as companies have only announced
modest price increases, despite the cost hikes associated with higher tariffs.
Earnings-per-share growth is also set to
come under pressure, with Goldman suggesting, “the consensus estimate among
analysts sees S&P 500 companies’ earnings-per-share growth decelerating to
4% this quarter relative to the same quarter last year — down from 12% in the
first quarter.”
With the banks set to dominate next week
— JPMorgan, Citi, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America are all
reporting within just two days — maybe Europe can provide some optimism.
As reported by CNBC’s Jenni Reid, European
banks just recorded their best
first half since 1997. Gains were driven by strong investment banking
returns — something their U.S. counterparts are also likely to capitalize on —
as well as stock rallies based on both deal speculation and actual M&A.
G20 heads south
As someone who grew up in Cape Town,
seeing this year’s G20 meetings take place in South Africa makes me pine for
the sunshine of the Southern hemisphere.
Next week’s meeting in Durban between
finance ministers and central bank governors comes at an interesting time for
the country.
An Oval Office meeting between South
African President Cyril Ramaphosa and Trump went spectacularly
wrong back in May, when the latter, flanked by his South African (now
former) right-hand man Elon Musk, made false claims of a “white genocide.”
It seems tensions have not abated.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent
will skip the meeting altogether, opting to head to Japan
instead, according to Reuters. South Africa is also subject to a new 30%
tariff rate, the only country in sub-Saharan Africa to be singled out in
the latest round of announcements.
It does not bode well for the G20 Leaders
meeting, due to be held in Gauteng on Nov. 22-23. It remains to be seen if
Trump will attend.
Global
week ahead: Trade tensions cloud earnings and the G20 heads south
In full moon, plus two days, news.
Trump announces 30% tariffs on EU and Mexico,
starting Aug. 1
Published Sat, Jul 12 2025 8:57 AM EDT Updated
Sat, Jul 12 2025 4:33 PM EDT
President Donald Trump said
Saturday the U.S. will impose a 30% tariff on goods
from the European Union and Mexico that will take effect on Aug.
1.
Trump revealed the new rates in letters to European
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum, which he posted on his
social media site Truth Social.
“Mexico has been helping me secure the
border, BUT, what Mexico has done, is not enough,” Trump wrote to Sheinbaum.
Trump said that there will not be tariffs
on goods from the EU if the 27-member bloc “or companies within the EU, decide
to build or manufacture product[s] within the United States,” he wrote.
He said that if the EU or Mexico
retaliates with higher tariffs, “then, whatever
the number you choose to raise them by, will be added on to the 30% that we
charge.”
The EU was seeking at least a preliminary
agreement that would spare it from becoming the latest recipient of a letter
from Trump dictating a new, across-the-board tariff on its exports to the U.S.
However, it still received a letter from
Trump threatening new tariffs, despite both sides having recently signaled
progress in their negotiations after Trump backed off a threat to slap 50% tariffs on the bloc.
The EU collectively sells more to the U.S.
than any single country: Total U.S. goods imports from the EU topped $553
billion in 2022, according to the Office
of the U.S. Trade Representative.
Total U.S. imports from Mexico were
approximately $454.8 billion in 2022, according to the U.S. Trade
Representative.
The two trading partners combined make up
roughly one-third of U.S. imports.
“Imposing 30 percent tariffs on EU exports
would disrupt essential transatlantic supply chains, to the detriment of
businesses, consumers and patients on both sides of the Atlantic,” von der
Leyen said in a statement.
She said the EU remains “ready to continue
working towards an agreement by August 1.”
“At the same time, we will take all
necessary steps to safeguard EU interests, including the adoption of
proportionate countermeasures if required.”
The Mexican government said in a Saturday
statement that
a delegation met Friday with U.S. trade officials “to establish the permanent
binational working group that will address the main issues in the
relationship.”
They were informed at the meeting that
they would receive new tariffs that would begin Aug. 1, according to the
statement.
“We stated at the meeting that this was
unfair treatment and that we disagreed,” the statement said.
“It is very significant that starting July
11, we established the necessary pathway and forum to resolve any possibility
of new tariffs taking effect on August 1,” the statement continued.
Trump has sent similar letters to
23 other
U.S. trading partners this week, including Canada, Japan and
Brazil, setting blanket tariff rates ranging from 20% up to 50%.
More
Trump announces
30% tariffs on EU and Mexico, starting Aug. 1
In other news.
Bank
of England interest rate cut ‘almost certain’ after poor growth
Friday
11 July 2025 12:22 pm
Fresh
growth figures have fuelled speculation of an August interest rate cut in a bid
to give the waning UK economy a shot of life.
The
Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed on Friday the UK economy shrunk
for the second consecutive month with a 0.1 per cent contraction in May.
Deutsche
Bank’s chief economist Sanjay Raja said a rate cut when the Monetary Policy
Committee meets on August 7 was “almost certain” with “more to come” in the
final quarter of the year.
The
Bank of England has gradually taken the chop to rates since they hit a post
financial crisis high of 5.25 per cent but external factors have led to a
sluggish pace.
In
June, the MPC held rates to “squeeze out persistent inflationary pressures” as
tensions between Israel and Iran risked an uptick in energy prices.
But
economists are now banking on another cut.
Rob
Wood, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: “Headline GDP
disappointed, which will keep the market pricing a high probability of an MPC
rate cut in August.”
Wood
said consumer price index and labour market data, pencilled in for next week,
were “the only barriers” to a rate reduction.
MPC
split as rates fall
The
vote to hold in June came despite three of nine rate-setters – external members
Swati Dhingra, Alan Taylor and deputy governor Dave Ramsden – voting for a 25
basis point cut, indicating tension amid the MPC.
The
last cut in May, which took rates to 4.25 per cent, split hawks and doves with
Dhingra and Taylor lobbying for a 50 basis points cut, whilst chief economist
Huw Pill and Catherine Mann opted to hold.
The
Bank has also retained its “careful and gradual” approach to monetary policy
amid geopolitical tensions brought on from President Donald Trump’s tariff
onslaught and conflict in the Middle East.
Ellie
Henderson, economist at Investec, said: “We expect GDP to continue to expand,
although we do not imagine the pace of growth will be breaking any records
anytime soon>”
Henderson
added: “Falling interest rates look set to support activity but a looser market
is likely to constrain activity”.
Investec
pencilled in the Bank rate “eventually settling” at three per cent in the
second half of 2026.
Bank of England
interest rate cut ‘almost certain’ after poor growth
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Worse
Than a Recession? Trump's Tariffs Risk 'Self-Inflicted' Stagflation
July 12, 2025
President
Donald Trump's turbulent
tariff agenda,
combined with mass deportations and increased national debt, has created
heightened volatility in financial markets. Though many economists say there's
low risk of a job-loss
recession,
others say we're at a critical crossroads, as consumer sentiment sours and the
labor market sputters.
Some
analysts have even posited that the economy could be circling the drain toward
stagflation, a rare and toxic scenario of slowing growth and high inflation. In
the 1970s, stagflation -- a combination of inflation and stagnation -- was
a major
economic crisis characterized
by double-digit inflation, steep interest rates and soaring unemployment.
In
a June study by Apollo
Global Management,
chief economist Torsten Sløk warned of ongoing stagflationary risks.
"Tariff hikes are typically stagflationary shocks -- they simultaneously
increase the probability of an economic slowdown while putting upward pressure
on prices," Sløk wrote. "The current tariff regime increases the
chance of a US recession to 25% over the next 12 months."
Stagflation
is considered to be an even worse economic prognosis than a typical downturn,
as the government lacks effective policy prescriptions to control it.
"There may not be an easy path to monetary or fiscal stabilization,"
said James
Galbraith,
economics professor at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs at the
University of Texas at Austin.
US
households, already struggling
to afford the high cost of living, are preparing for what's next. Whether
we're headed for a recession or a period of stagflation, taking steps to
proactively safeguard
your finances becomes
all the more critical.
Are
we still at risk of a recession?
Rampant
economic uncertainty often triggers recessionary
conditions as
companies and households start to reduce spending and investment. During a
recession, unemployment goes up, and the prices of goods begin to decline. It's
generally harder to obtain financing, as banks tighten their requirements to
minimize their risk of lending to borrowers who may default on loans.
The
economy regularly experiences periods of booms and busts, with downturns
occurring roughly every five to seven years. "We are due for a reset and a
slowdown in the economy," said Greg Sher, managing
director at NFM Lending.
Certain
macroeconomic hallmarks, like shrinking GDP and rising
joblessness,
are consistent across all recessions. But every US recession is also unique,
with a different historical trigger. The Great Recession of 2007-09, which
kicked off with the subprime mortgage crisis and the collapse of financial
institutions, was the longest. The COVID-19 pandemic recession, resulting from
lockdowns and the loss of 24 million jobs, was the shortest recession on
record.
Working-class
and middle-class households experience the day-to-day hardship of a recession
well before the National Bureau of
Economic Research makes
the official call. Folks on the margins also experience a much slower recovery
after a recession is declared to be over.
Relying
on hard data like GDP and employment to determine
recessions is
faulty. Because those figures are backward-looking, they tell us where the
economy was before, not necessarily where it's heading. Many economists note
that unemployment
is worse than
what the headline figures report.
Here
are some of the key warning signs of a recession:
More
Worse Than a Recession? Trump's Tariffs Risk 'Self-Inflicted' Stagflation
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Quantum
materials with a 'hidden metallic state' could make electronics 1,000 times
faster
11 July 2025
A new method of changing
electronic states on demand could make electronics 1,000 times faster and more
efficient, researchers say.
In a new study published 27
June in the journal Nature Physics, scientists discovered that controlled heating and cooling of a quantum
material allows it to both insulate from and conduct electricity, depending on the temperature.
This material, named 1T-TaS₂,
could potentially replace conventional silicon components in electronics, including laptops and
smartphones. Quantum materials could accomplish the same tasks faster while
taking up exponentially less room, the research team suggested.
If materials like 1T-TaS₂ were adopted for use in
electronics, the amount of information they could process in a second would
increase 1000-fold. "Processors work in gigahertz right now. The speed of
change that this would enable would allow you to go to terahertz," Alberto de la Torre, a material physicist at
Northeastern University and lead author of the study, said in a statement.
Thermal quenching
The technique the researchers
used is called thermal quenching. It involves shining light on a material that
has unique quantum properties when activated to increase its temperature.
In the case of 1T-TaS₂, the activated trait is metallic conductivity.
This stable "hidden
metallic state," as the researchers call it in the study, has previously
been achieved, but only at cryogenically cold temperatures and for less than a
second. The new research demonstrates that this property can be attained by
temperature fluctuations at more practical temperatures — around -100 degrees
Fahrenheit (-73 degrees Celsius), more than 250 degrees warmer than past
experiments — the scientists said in the statement. What's more, the material
1T-TaS₂ can maintain its conductivity for months at a time with this method,
which has never before been accomplished.
When light is removed, the
material's temperature decreases and the 1T-TaS₂ falls back into its original
insulating state. The result is comparable to a transistor — a semiconductor device in the majority of
modern electronics that controls the flow of electricity. The advancement of
transistors, in accordance with Moore's
Law, is often credited with the
shrinking of computers from machines that once occupied rooms to ones that can
fit into your pocket.
Understanding how to control
quantum materials has the potential to similarly transform electronics, Gregory Fiete, a theoretical physicist at Northeastern University and co-author of the
paper, said in the statement.
"What we're shooting for
is the highest level of control over material properties," he said.
"We want it to do something very fast, with a very certain outcome,
because that's the sort of thing that can be then exploited in a device."
"There's nothing faster than light"
Finding a way to switch
between states of conductivity at higher temperatures is a game-changer for
eventually replacing silicon-based technology, Fiete explained. Traditional
silicon semiconductors contain many densely-packed logic
components, which has physical limitations.
Because this new technique
combines both conductive and insulating properties into a single object,
quantum materials could accomplish the same tasks as silicon components while
using much less space. "We eliminate one of the engineering challenges by
putting it all into one material," he said.
Thermal quenching may also
increase computing speeds because it relies on light to control conductivity.
"Everyone who has ever used a computer encounters a point where they wish
something would load faster," Fiete added. "There's nothing faster than light, and we're using light to control material
properties at essentially the fastest possible speed that's allowed by
physics."
This research opens up a new
future for electronics, one where engineers can have instant control over a
material's properties. "We're at a point where in order to get amazing
enhancements in information storage or the speed of operation, we need a new
paradigm," Fiete said. "That's what this work is really about."
Quantum materials with a 'hidden metallic state' could make electronics
1,000 times faster
Approx. 6 minutes.
Massive Lithium-ion Battery Fire in Spain
Massive Lithium-ion Battery Fire in Spain
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
“Markets
can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
John Maynard Keynes
