Monday, 25 August 2025

Evergrande Delisted. UK Bond Vigilantes? AI layoffs? Pompeii Remembered.

Baltic Dry Index. 1944 +51           Brent Crude 67.85

Spot Gold 3366                 US 2 Year Yield 3.68 -0.11

US Federal Debt. 37.274 trillion

US GDP 30.222 trillion.

The city of Pompeii, located in southern Italy, was a bustling metropolis in the ancient Roman era. However, its fate would change forever on August 24th, 79 AD, when Mount Vesuvius erupted and buried the city under layers of ash and debris. This catastrophic event, known as the Pompeii Eruption, is one of the most notorious natural disasters in history. In this article, we will take a comprehensive look into this devastating event and uncover the details surrounding it.

The Devastating Pompeii Eruption: A Comprehensive Look into One of the World's Most Notorious Natural Disasters

Another new trading week and the last trading week of August too.

The stock gambling casinos like Fed Chairman Powell’s (almost) promise to drop US interest rates at their next meeting next month, but away from the Great AI Bubble, the US, UK and Chinese economies are showing signs that big trouble has already arrived.

As Warren Buffett knew only too well, to sell off very large stock positions, you need a bubbly market full of willing buyers. You can’t offload very large stocks holdings into a declining market. In the stock casinos willing buyers just aren’t there in large numbers.

South Korean stocks rise as Asia markets track Wall Street gains on Fed rate-cut hopes

Published Sun, Aug 24 2025 7:42 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific rose Monday, tracking Wall Street gains after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the central bank could begin easing monetary policy next month in his widely anticipated annual speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

South Korea’s Kospi index increased by 0.67%, while the small-cap Kosdaq advanced 1.91%.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 benchmark rose 0.69%, while the broader Topix index added 0.27%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 benchmark pared earlier gains to 0.27%, after crossing the 9,000 threshold earlier in the session.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 climbed 1.39%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 1.21%.

Elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific, market watchers are awaiting Singapore’s consumer price index reading for July. Economists polled by Reuters expect a 0.6% rise year over year, consistent with the month before.

U.S. equity futures were little changed in early Asia hours, as investors await artificial intelligence darling Nvidia’s earnings.

Last Friday, the blue-chip Dow soared 846.24 points, or 1.89%, to a record level of 45,631.74.

Meanwhile, the broad market S&P 500 rose 1.52% to 6,466.91, while its session high was just three points shy of its record. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 1.88%, ending the session at 21,496.53.

South Korean stocks rise as Asia markets track Wall Street gains on Fed rate-cut hopes

Wall Street Week Ahead

Aug. 24, 2025 6:00 AM ETNVDAARKKBABA

Wall Street's attention this week will be squarely on Nvidia (NVDA), as the chipmaker gears up for its latest quarterly results. A key inflation gauge and another reading on economic growth will also grab some of the spotlight.
Nvidia (
NVDA), the world's largest publicly listed company by market cap, will announce fiscal second quarter results on Wednesday. Its reports have become market-moving events, and its blockbuster quarterly performances have spoiled investors. With the artificial intelligence trade back in play, Nvidia's (NVDA) commentary on its AI chips and on China will be closely watched.
On the economic calendar, Thursday will see the first revision for second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth. And then on Friday, market participants will receive the July reading for the core personal consumption expenditures price index - widely seen as the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge.

Wall Street Week Ahead | Seeking Alpha

Wage growth is doing something odd in 2025 — the last time it happened was around the Great Recession

Published Fri, Aug 22 2025 9:55 AM EDT

Wage growth is doing something odd these days.

Typically, wages grow at a faster clip each year for workers who switch jobs, compared to those who stay in their current role.

That makes sense: Workers generally leave a job when they find something better for them, which often includes a higher salary, according to labor economists.

But in 2025, the roles have reversed as workers, faced with a souring job market, shift from job-hopping to “job hugging” — that is, clinging to their current roles.

Annual wage growth for so-called “job stayers” has eclipsed that of “job switchers” for the past six months, since February, according to data tracked by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

The margins aren’t huge: For example, in July, job stayers saw wages grow at a 4.1% annual pace, versus 4% for workers who switched jobs, according to the Atlanta Fed data.

However, that sustained reversal points to an underlying weakness in the labor market, economists said.

Since the late 1990s, a prolonged reversal in wage growth trends for job “switchers” versus “stayers” has only happened in periods around the Great Recession and the dot-com bust in the early 2000s, the Atlanta Fed data shows.

The last time a drawn-out reversal occurred was in and immediately following the Great Recession, during an 18-month period from February 2009 to July 2010, according to the data.

“We only tend to see it around other times when the labor market has been weak,” said Erica Groshen, a senior economics advisor at the Cornell University School of Industrial and Labor Relations and former commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics from 2013 to 2017.

More

Wage growth now favors job stayers over job switchers

Businesses bringing back recession specials could be the latest sign of deteriorating consumer sentiment

Published Sat, Aug 23 2025 7:50 AM EDT

As fears of a slowing economy lurk in the background, some businesses are taking notice and bringing back so-called recession specials.

Look up the term “recession specials” through Google’s search engine, and the list of results will include entries from the Great Recession nearly 20 years ago.

Consider this Grub Street article from 2008 slugged “Recession Specials: Your Definitive Guide.” Or this 2009 story from The New York Times, which details the mealtime recession specials restaurants across New York offered as an act of survival.

Fast-forward to 2025 and a crop of establishments are once more hinting at a looming economic downturn.

When ‘recession’ returns as a selling point

Recession fears were heating up this spring as President Donald Trump rolled out a slate of tariffs in early April. The term “recession indicator” entered the vernacular of social media users as a tongue-in-cheek way of gauging a potential economic slowdown.

Businesses are now getting in on the joke as well. For instance, Brooklyn, New York coffee shop Clever Blend advertises a $6 gelato and espresso “recession special.”

Wicked Willy’s, a bar in Manhattan, got on board by offering a “Recession Pop Party” earlier this month, with one caption on an Instagram post declaring: “The recession is BACK! Get ready to dance and party all night long!”

Market Hotel, a Brooklyn concert venue, advertised a similar event. “From The Fame to Animal, Circus to Rated R, we’re serving economic anxiety with a side of electro-pop, bloghaus, and auto-tuned glam,” an Instagram caption for the event read. “Dress like rent’s due and you’re dancing through it.”

But the trend doesn’t just stop in New York. Super Duper, a burger chain with 18 locations across the San Francisco Bay Area, tapped in earlier this year with its own “Recession Burger,” a seasonal special introduced in the summer.

----Shedding light on waning consumer sentiment

These small businesses getting in on the trend could be a broader reaction to waning consumer confidence. Consider that the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index came in at 58.6 in August, down from a reading of 61.7 in July and reflecting a 13.7% change on a year-over-year basis.

This souring in sentiment has been driven primarily by concerns over trade policy, said Joanne Hsu, director of the surveys of consumers at the University of Michigan.

“What’s very clear from the consumer sentiment data is that consumers are broadly bracing for a slowdown in the economy and a deterioration — not just with inflation, expecting inflation to get worse — but they’re also expecting businesses conditions to deteriorate,” she said. “They’re expecting labor markets to weaken and unemployment rates to go up. And what you’re seeing with these businesses could be a reaction to that.”

A lack of consumer confidence — and trust in income reliability — will ultimately lead to a pullback in spending, Hsu added.

“Young people are feeling just as bad about the economy as older folks, and in some months they feel even worse than older folks,” she said. “Across the age distribution, people agree that the trajectory of the economy has soured.”

Recession specials could be the latest sign of deteriorating consumer sentiment

US food groups plead for relief from Donald Trump’s tariffs

Piecemeal approach leaves seafood and produce sectors fighting to win individual carve-outs

24 August 2025

US food industry groups are pushing for exemptions from Donald Trump’s tariffs, arguing that products from fish to cucumbers cannot be affordably grown at home. 

The advocacy comes as the US president hit dozens of trading partners with sweeping duties this month, driving the US’s effective tariff rate to its highest level in decades in a move that threatens to reorder global trade.

Industry groups warn that the food sector is uniquely vulnerable to tariffs because some affected countries grow ingredients that will never be produced in quantity in the US. But lobby groups are taking a piecemeal approach by pleading for exemptions rather than attacking tariffs overall.

 “There are so many voices, so many products that say, ‘Well, we just need an exemption, because we’re unlike others’,” said Gavin Gibbons, chief strategy officer at the National Fisheries Institute, a US seafood trade association. 

Most food consumed in the US is produced domestically by its vast farm sector. But about a fifth is imported, according to the US agriculture department. 

 Gibbons said seafood was “fundamentally different” from other food types as 85 per cent of US consumption is fed by imports. American waters are already being fished to their maximum sustainable yield, while regulations make domestic aquaculture difficult to expand. The nation’s seafood trade deficit stood at $24bn in 2022, US commerce department data showed. 

Imports account for about 90 per cent of US shrimp supply, Gibbons said, and India raises more than a third of it. Trump plans to lift US tariffs on India to 50 per cent on Wednesday as punishment for its oil purchases from Russia. 

US fresh fruit and vegetable imports total $36bn, with Mexico the largest supplier overall, followed by Peru for fruits and Canada for vegetables, according to the International Fresh Produce Association (IFPA). 

“We are asking for fruits and vegetables to just be out of the tariff conversation,” said Rebeckah Adcock, vice-president of government relations at the IFPA.

Nicole Bivens Collinson, managing principal at law firm Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg, said an exclusion process for food could be complicated, given there was no set process in place to apply for tariff relief.

More

US food groups plead for relief from Donald Trump’s tariffs

In other news, higher UK food prices lie ahead.

UK harvest on course for near record low after drought hits crops

22 August 2025

One of the worst harvests on record is expected after staple crops were hit by drought and hot weather this year.

Analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU)shows it could be the fifth worst British harvest since 1984, when detailed records began.

The extremely dry spring affected the growth of crops such as wheat and oats, which farmers are now harvesting.

And the remnants of US 'monster' hurricane Erin, currently barrelling across the Atlantic, may only make matters worse.

The low crop yield follows the third worst harvest on record last year, which was due to extreme rainfall worsened by climate change.

Tom Lancaster, ECIU farming analyst, said: 'This is what farming in a changing climate looks like, with huge implications for our farmers, food production and UK food security.

'Farmers need more and better support to adapt to these extremes. There is now a real urgency to ensure that support to invest in healthier soils and other green farming measures that can boost resilience is once again made available.'

Due to the droughts this year, farmers have also been struggling to grow field vegetables, such as broccoli and cauliflower, and feed cattle and sheep.

Now the Met Office has said the tail end of ex-hurricane Erin should bring an 'increased likelihood of low pressure, thundery showers, spells of rain and increased wind as well'.

It said: 'Whether or not it hits us as an ex-hurricane, it's likely to bring us a big change to more unsettled weather for next week.'

It also warned that Erin will also bring 'very large waves' to the UK, with those visiting the western coasts of Scotland and Ireland told to exercise caution.

UK harvest on course for near record low after drought hits crops -...

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

UK gilt yields suffer from dwindling investor appetite

Friday 22 August 2025 12:34 pm

UK gilt yields have gradually moved higher over August, as investor concerns over government borrowing costs and wider economic conditions continue.

While daily movements have been small, the monthly performance shows a notable sharp spike in yields, with long-dated gilts in particular recording a steep increase.

UK yields are now 1.5 per cent higher than in Greece, Spain, Ireland and Portugal.

The 10-year gilt yield is trading at 4.75 per cent today, after the Bank of England’s decision to cut interest rates to four per cent at the start of the month triggered a large sell-off in government bonds. It opened August at 4.57 per cent.

Similarly, the 20-year gilt yield is trading at 5.5 per cent, up from 5.01 per cent at the start of the month.

However, the 30-year yield has seen the most significant acceleration, pulling away from the shorter maturities and reaching its highest point since 1998.

It opened the month at 5.1 per cent but is currently trading at 5.59 per cent, reflecting weak confidence among investors for holding long-term UK government debt.

Dan Coatsworth, investment analyst at AJ Bell said: “The fact that gilt yields have gradually moved higher in recent weeks suggests that bond investors want greater compensation for the risk of holding UK government debt.”

Surge in borrowing and inflation woes

While the steady climb in yields highlights a significant shift in investor confidence in the UK’s long-term economic outlook, in particular inflation and government borrowing.

The government’s commitment to public spending has pushed up government borrowing and the country’s budget deficit.

Coatsworth said, “Bond investors are fretting about sticky inflation, interest rates potentially staying higher for longer and high levels of government borrowing.”

“Appetite has dwindled for longer-dated government debt in general, partially because of market dynamics but also because there are fewer defined benefit funds in the UK which have historically been active buyers of long-dated gilts.”

UK gilt yields suffer from dwindling investor appetite

Chinese property giant Evergrande delisted after spectacular fall

25 August 2025, 00:20 BST  Updated 3 hours ago

Chinese property giant Evergrande's shares were taken off the Hong Kong stock market on Monday after more than a decade and a half of trading.

It marks a grim milestone for what was once China's biggest real estate firm, with a stock market valuation of more than $50bn (£37.1bn). That was before its spectacular collapse under the weight of the huge debts that had powered its meteoric rise.

Experts say the delisting was both inevitable and final.

"Once delisted, there is no coming back," says Dan Wang, China director at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group.

Evergrande is now best-known for its part in a crisis that has for years dragged on the world's second-largest economy.

What happened to Evergrande?

Just a few years ago Evergrande Group was a shining example of China's economic miracle.

Its founder and chairman Hui Ka Yan rose from humble beginnings in rural China to top the Forbes list of Asia's wealthiest people in 2017.

His fortune has since plummeted from an estimated $45bn in 2017 to less than a billion, his fall from grace as extraordinary as his company's.

In March 2024, Mr Hui was fined $6.5m and banned from China's capital market for life for his company overstating its revenue by $78bn.

Liquidators are also exploring whether they can recover cash for creditors from Mr Hui's personal property.

At the time of its collapse, Evergrande had some 1,300 projects under development in 280 cities across China.

The sprawling empire also included an electric carmaker and China's most successful football team, Guangzhou FC, which was kicked out of the football league earlier this year after failing to pay off enough of its debts.

Evergrande was built on $300bn (£222bn) of borrowed money, earning it the unenviable title of the world's most indebted property developer.

The rot set in after Beijing brought in new rules in 2020 to control the amount big developers could borrow.

More

Evergrande: Chinese property giant delisted after spectacular fall - BBC News

Bay Area tech titan announces mass layoffs just after soaring revenue report

Aug 20, 2025

Cisco, the San Jose-based technology giant, has announced another round of layoffs affecting Bay Area workers, marking a familiar pattern of reporting skyrocketing revenue followed by drastic job cuts. 

According to Aug. 13 WARN filings with California’s Employment Development Department, the company will eliminate 221 positions across its Milpitas and San Francisco offices. WARN documents are generally required by the state in the event of mass layoffs. 

Employees were notified of the layoffs on Aug. 14 and their terminations will be effective Oct. 13. The most cuts, affecting 157 jobs, largely in software engineering roles, were at Cisco’s Milpitas office at 560 McCarthy Blvd. Cisco’s San Francisco office at 500 Terry A. Francois Blvd. will cut 64 positions, according to the filing.

The filings came the same day Cisco released its fourth-quarter earnings, which reported $14.7 billion in revenue, an 8% increase from the same quarter last year. Revenue for the 2025 fiscal year was $56.7 billion, up 5% from the previous year. 

This also isn’t the first instance of Cisco cutting jobs after a quarter of growth. Last September, shortly after announcing a $10.3 billion annual profit, the company laid off 840 employees across the Bay Area.

Cisco’s financial report also pointed to the company’s AI infrastructure, which generated $2 billion in revenue for the fiscal year, more than double its $1 billion goal. Cisco said it plans to expand its AI investments in the next year but did not reference any workforce reductions or financial difficulties.

In a Thursday interview with CNBC on the same day of the report, CEO Chuck Robbins addressed AI technology in the company’s workforce. 

“I don’t want to get rid of a bunch of people right now. I don’t want to get rid of engineers,” Robbins said. “I just want our engineers we have today to innovate faster and be more productive and that gives us a competitive advantage.”

Robbins said if AI keeps advancing at Cisco, the company could possibly hire fewer employees. Cisco did not respond to SFGATE’s request for comment on the latest round of layoffs.

The AI boom isn’t just specific to Cisco either. Some AI startups have openly admitted to replacing human workers with AI technology. Legacy tech companies such as Microsoft have joined the trend, with mass layoffs or slowed hiring as part of an effort to invest more in AI. 

Bay Area tech titan announces layoffs just after strong revenue report

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

Covid cases surge despite summer heatwave

Healthcare and social workers not eligible for upcoming booster programme doses despite rising cases

22 August 2025 3:09pm BST

Covid cases have jumped to their highest level this year, new data has revealed.

Almost 1,500 people tested positive for the virus last week despite Britain being engulfed in a summer heatwave.

It was up by 20 per cent on the week before rising to the highest seven-day total since last year.

While most people no longer test for Covid-19, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) runs surveillance testing to keep track of viruses spreading throughout the country.

There were 1,478 positive test results in the week ending Sunday Aug 17, which was about 12 per cent higher than the second highest week of the year at the start of June.

A separate metric showed almost 9 per cent of people were testing positive for Covid-19 – also a high for the year – despite the number of people taking a PCR test falling throughout the summer.

The greater proportion of people testing positive gives an indicator of how prevalent the virus is across the country.

Positivity rates were particularly high among those aged 15 to 24 as well as the 85 and over.

A new strain of Covid, which has been dubbed “Stratus”, now makes up the majority of cases in the UK.

Also known by its technical name of XFG, experts have suggested the subvariant has a unique symptom that was not previously associated with Covid: a hoarse or raspy voice.

More

Covid cases surge despite summer heatwave

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Today, more on a problem that is only going to grow with each passing year and millions of batteries age.

Harlow bin lorry fire believed to be caused by batteries

23 August 2025

Batteries thrown away in household waste rather than safely recycled may have caused a major fire in a bin lorry.

The blaze broke out in Edinburgh Way, Harlow, at around 11am on Friday, August 15, near the River Way roundabout, and led to widespread disruption.

Roads were closed for several hours as emergency services responded, and work continued into the early hours to make the area safe.

Harlow Council believes batteries placed in household waste may have been the cause of the fire.

Councillor Nicky Purse, who is responsible for environment, said: "This incident could have been far worse, and it highlights the very real risks of putting batteries in your general waste.

"Batteries can ignite or explode when damaged or crushed, especially in bin lorries.

"We urge all residents to use the free battery collection service provided by the council.

----The council’s free battery collection service is available to houses but not flats or communal properties.

Batteries should be placed in a clearly labelled cardboard box or plastic bag and left next to the black wheelie bin or purple bags on non-recycling collection days.

Harlow bin lorry fire believed to be caused by batteries | Epping Forest Guardian

E-bike battery explodes and destroys bedroom

22 August 2025

A powerful explosion from an E-bike lithium-ion battery tore through a bedroom in Newport earlier this week leaving the room charred and scattered with debris. Fire crews were called to Caerleon House Hotel in the early hours of Sunday, August 18.

South Wales Fire and Rescue Service (SWFRS) confirmed the fire started when the battery exploded and caught fire in the bedroom.

"Earlier this week crews were called to an E-bike fire in Newport after a lithium-ion battery exploded and caught fire in a bedroom," the service said in a statement.

Fire crews responded quickly and were able to prevent the blaze from spreading beyond the room. "Thanks to the quick response of our crews the blaze was contained to the room using breathing apparatus sets, a hose reel jet, and positive pressure ventilation," the statement continued.

Images from the scene show the shocking aftermath with a partially-detached window frame, blackened walls, and piles of rubble covering the floor where the fire raged while the source of the fire was left in tatters with the tyres partially melted.

The service went on to issue a warning about the dangers of lithium-ion batteries which can become hazardous if they are damaged, overcharged, or stored incorrectly.

According to SWFRS most modern UK households contain numerous devices powered by lithium-ion batteries from mobile phones, tablets, earpods to vacuum cleaners, vaping devices, E-bikes, and scooters. While these rechargeable batteries are widely used they can pose a serious fire risk if not handled or maintained properly.

"Lithium-ion batteries can be dangerous if damaged, overcharged, or stored incorrectly," they said.

Residents are urged to familiarise themselves with the risks and take precautions when charging or storing devices powered by these batteries.

More

E-bike battery explodes and destroys bedroom

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

I do like low interest rates. I'm not making that a big secret. I think low interest rates are good. I like a dollar that's not too strong. I mean, I've seen strong dollars. And frankly, other than the fact that it sounds good, lots of bad things happen with a strong dollar.

Donald Trump 

Saturday, 23 August 2025

Special Update 23/08/2025 Fed Chairman Powell Kow Tows.

Baltic Dry Index. 1944 +51            Brent Crude 67.73

Spot Gold 3372                U S 2 Year Yield 3.68 -0.11 

US Federal Debt. 37.266 trillion

US GDP 30.218 trillion

When the final result is expected to be a compromise, it is often prudent to start from an extreme position.

John Maynard Keynes

In the weasel words of central bankster speak, it was President Trump 10 Fed Chairman Powell 0.

Prepare for a highly politicised US central bank and weaker US dollar.

Get gold and silver.

Powell indicates conditions ‘may warrant’ interest rate cuts as Fed proceeds ‘carefully’

Published Fri, Aug 22 2025 10:00 AM EDT Updated Fri, Aug 22 2025 3:58 PM EDT

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday gave a tepid indication of possible interest rate cuts ahead as he noted a high level of uncertainty that is making the job difficult for monetary policymakers.

In his much-anticipated speech at the Fed’s annual conclave in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, the central bank leader in prepared remarks cited “sweeping changes” in tax, trade and immigration policies. The result is that “the balance of risks appear to be shifting” between the Fed’s twin goals of full employment and stable prices.

While he noted that the labor market remains in good shape and the economy has shown “resilience,” he said downside dangers are rising. At the same time, he said tariffs are causing risks that inflation could rise again — a stagflation scenario that the Fed needs to avoid.

With the Fed’s benchmark interest rate a full percentage point below where it was when Powell delivered his keynote a year ago, and the unemployment rate still low, conditions allow “us to proceed carefully as we consider changes to our policy stance,” Powell said.

“Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance,” he added.

That was as close as he came during the speech to endorsing a rate cut that Wall Street widely believes is coming when the Federal Open Market Committee next meets Sept. 16-17.

However, the remarks were enough to send stocks soaring and Treasury yields tumbling. The Dow Jones Industrial Average showed a gain of more than 600 points following the public release of Powell’s speech while the policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury note saw a 0.08 percentage point fall to around 3.71%.

In addition to market expectations, President Donald Trump has demanded aggressive cuts from the Fed in scathing public attacks he has lobbed at Powell and his colleagues.

The Fed has held its benchmark borrowing rate in a range between 4.25%-4.5% since December. Policymakers have continued to cite the uncertain impact that tariffs will have on inflation as a reason for caution and believe that current economic conditions and the slightly restrictive policy stance allow for time to make further decisions.

Importance of Fed independence

While not addressing the White House demands for lower rates specifically, Powell did note the importance of Fed independence.

“FOMC members will make these decisions, based solely on their assessment of the data and its implications for the economic outlook and the balance of risks. We will never deviate from that approach,” he said.

The speech comes amid ongoing negotiations between the White House and its global trading partners, a situation often in flux and without clarity on where it will end. Recent indicators show consumer prices gradually pushing higher but wholesale costs up more rapidly.

From the Trump administration’s view, the tariffs will not cause lasting inflation, thus warranting rate cuts. Powell’s position in the speech was that a range of outcomes is possible, with a “reasonable base case” being that the tariff impacts will be “short lived — a one-time shift in the price level” that likely would not be cause for holding rates higher. However, he said nothing is certain at this point.

“It will continue to take time for tariff increases to work their way through supply chains and distribution networks,” Powell said. “Moreover, tariff rates continue to evolve, potentially prolonging the adjustment process.”

In addition to summarizing the current conditions and potential outcomes, the speech touched on the Fed’s five-year review of its policy framework. The review resulted in several notable changes from when the central bank last performed the task in 2020.

At that time, in the midst of the Covid pandemic, the Fed switched to a “flexible average inflation targeting” regime that effectively would allow inflation to run higher than the central bank’s 2% goal coming after a prolonged period of holding below that level. The upshot is that policymakers could be patient with slightly higher inflation if it meant insuring a more comprehensive labor market recovery.

However, shortly after adopting the strategy, inflation began to climb, ultimately hitting 40-year highs, while policymakers largely dismissed the rise as “transitory” and not needing rate hikes. Powell noted the damaging impacts from the inflation and the lessons learned.

“As it turned out, the idea of an intentional, moderate inflation overshoot had proved irrelevant. There was nothing intentional or moderate about the inflation that arrived a few months after we announced our 2020 changes to the consensus statement, as I acknowledged publicly in 2021,” Powell said. “The past five years have been a painful reminder of the hardship that high inflation imposes, especially on those least able to meet the higher costs of necessities.”

Also during the review, the Fed reaffirmed its commitment to its 2% inflation target. There have been critics on both sides of the issue, with some suggesting the rate is too high and can lead to a weaker dollar, while others seeing a need for the central bank to be flexible.

“We believe that our commitment to this target is a key factor helping keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored,” Powell said.

Powell indicates conditions 'may warrant' interest rate cuts as Fed proceeds 'carefully'

Trump says he’ll fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook ‘if she doesn’t resign’

Published Fri, Aug 22 2025 10:23 AM EDT Updated Fri, Aug 22 2025 12:15 PM EDT

President Donald Trump said Friday he will fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook if she does not resign from her position.

“What she did was bad,” the president told reporters who asked about Cook, an appointee of former President Joe Biden who has come under fire from the Trump administration over allegations about her mortgages.

“So I’ll fire her if she doesn’t resign,” he said during a surprise visit to The People’s House, a museum of the White House.

If Trump were to successfully remove Cook “for cause,” he would get the chance to reshape the central bank’s governing board, potentially for years to come.

Two of the seven current governors, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, are Trump appointees. Both dissented from the Fed’s most recent decision to hold interest rates steady.

Another seat opened up earlier this summer, when Adriana Kugler announced she would step down.

If Trump is able to remove Cook, he would appoint her successor — potentially ensuring that a majority of the board shares his view on monetary policy. Board members serve 14-year terms.

Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte this week publicly accused Cook of mortgage fraud related to claims that she took two different properties as her primary residence at the same time.

He sent a criminal referral to the Department of Justice, which revealed Thursday that it will investigate Cook.

Pulte, a vocal critic of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell who has aggressively backed Trump’s calls for the central bank to lower interest rates, has continuously attacked Cook on social media since revealing his allegations.

Trump previously called for Cook to resign immediately in light of the allegations. Ed Martin, a Justice Department lawyer who is widely seen as a loyalist to the president, urged Powell to promptly remove Cook — even though the central bank chief cannot do so under the law.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, wrote in an X post Friday that Trump is targeting Cook because he is “trying to find a scapegoat for his failure to lower costs for Americans.”

Cook has consistently voted in line with Powell. She sided with the majority to keep rates unchanged following the Federal Open Market Committee’s most recent meeting last month.

Cook said Wednesday that she has “no intention of being bullied to step down from my position because of some questions raised in a tweet.”

More

Trump says he'll fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook 'if she doesn't resign'

In other news.

Canada's travel boycott of the United States is getting worse

August 21, 2025

Recent data published by Statistics Canada revealed that there has been another significant decline in the number of Canadian visits to the United States. The new figures showed that the Canadian travel boycott against its southern neighbor is still in full swing. But just how bad are things?

According to the latest data from Statistics Canada, Canadian visits to the United States dropped substantially in July, marking an intensification of the nation’s travel boycott against the US, and more worryingly, locking in more losses that American businesses will experience this year.   

On August 11th, Statistics Canada published data on Canadian returns from the United States. The new data revealed that the boycott of travel to the United States was only getting worse. Travel to the US from Canada dropped by a whopping year-over-year percentage in July. 

The number of Canadian residents returning to Canada by automobile in July was just a measly 1.7 million. Statistics Canada noted that this was a steep 36.9% decline from the same month last year and the seventh consecutive month of automobile return declines. 

Forbes pointed out that the July automobile return numbers followed a 33% drop in June. The American business news outlet also added that air travel returns also declined by a considerable amount in July, based on Statistics Canada’s report. 

In July 2025, Canadian return trips by air from the US fell by 25.8% to just 383,700. This was also the seventh consecutive month of declines in air travel returns from the United States. However, that wasn’t the worst part about what the data showed. 

Forbes reported that July also marked the seventh consecutive month that automobile and air travel returns from the United States saw double-digit year-over-year declines, which in turn is having a major impact on the American economy. 

According to data from Tourism Economics, which is a branch of Oxford Economics, the first six months of 2025 have seen a 24% drop in Canadian travel to the US, something that Forbes noted has resulted in a major loss for the US tourism industry. 

In February 2025, the US Travel Association warned that even a 10% reduction in Canadian visitors to the United States could result in 2 million fewer visitors to the US, the loss of $2.1 billion in spending, and roughly 14,000 job losses. 

More

Canada's travel boycott of the United States is getting worse

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.        

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation/recession now needs an entire section of its own.

Tariff Inflation Is Just Starting

By Aaron Back August 21, 2025

In May, Home Depot executives told investors that they plan to hold the line on prices despite tariffs. They even boasted that their ability to do so represented “a great opportunity for us to take share.”

Fast forward three months to their latest quarterly report, and the retailer now says “there will be some modest price movement in some categories.”

What changed? William Bastek, Home Depot executive vice president of merchandising, told analysts: “Now some of the imported goods, obviously, tariff rates are significantly higher today than they were when we spoke in May.”

That actually isn’t obvious. With all the back and forth, threats and last-minute deals, investors could be forgiven for not having a clear picture of what Home Depot’s import bills look like now compared with three months ago.

But this highlights a broader point: With all the uncertainty over tariffs, it has broadly made sense for companies to hold the line on pricing. After all, why upset customers with a price hike over a tariff that could go away in an instant?

Yet companies can’t sit on their hands forever. On Thursday, investors will be looking for more clarity from the big boy of retail, Walmart. Unlike Home Depot, it admitted last quarter that some price hikes were inevitable, but told investors to wait for their second-quarter update for fuller guidance.

Economists at Goldman Sachs, in a widely discussed note this month, shed further light on what’s happening. Looking at the first wave of tariffs against China back in February, they found that U.S. companies initially absorbed the costs, but now are passing on more to consumers. Specifically, they found that “around 36% of tariff costs were passed onto consumer prices after three months of implementation and around 67% were passed on after four months.”

This makes sense. Besides waiting for clarity on tariffs, it also takes time to negotiate new prices with suppliers and customers. And there have often been opportunities to stock up on goods before Trump’s declared deadlines. But the longer that tariffs stay in place, the more they will bleed into consumer prices.

The implications are concerning. This means the “Liberation Day” tariffs declared in April and negotiated over the past several months, as well as sector-level tariffs on things like autos, steel and so on, aren’t being fully felt yet. Goldman’s economists figure that consumers had absorbed just 22% of total tariff costs through June, but this will rise to 67% by October.

In short, don’t take too much comfort from the relatively subdued inflation seen so far. The real tariff bill is yet to arrive.

marketsam.cmail19.com/t/d-e-glhckl-ykyklyltw-r/

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

Today, the battery powered electric train. But given the fire risk, who needs a bet on a battery electric train journey?

New world record set for furthest distance travelled by battery train

Posted 20th August 2025 By Alex Bestwick

Great Western Railway today registered 200 miles on a return journey from Reading Train Care Depot which took in London Paddington (twice) and Oxford.

The previous record of 139 miles was achieved by Stadler Deutschland in Berlin in 2021.

Officials from the Rail Performance Society, an organisation dedicated to recording and studying the performance of railways and railway traction in the UK, were on board to witness and verify the new world record.

The 200-mile record was achieved operating in ‘SuperMode’ – travelling at speeds of between 30mph and 40mph and without heating. It is estimated that around 120 miles could have been achieved travelling at full speed (60mph).

Rail Performance Society Vice Chair, Nigel Smedley, said: “We can confirm that, subject to final checks, the Great Western Railway Class 230 train travelled 200 miles on a return journey from Reading Train Care Depot without charging its batteries from any external energy source.”

The Class 230 train, number 230001, is the one used for GWR’s successful trial of fast-charge technology on the Greenford branch line over the past year.

The new world record follows the release of a White Paper, published by GWR last month, outlining the findings of the trial, which proved battery trains could provide a viable and cost-effective alternative to diesel trains.

It comes as the operator prepares plans to renew its ageing regional fleet trains, which are expected to go out of serviceable use in the next 7-10 years.

GWR Engineering Director, Dr Simon Green, said: “We’re delighted to set a new world record – and to reach 200 miles in such a landmark year for the rail industry is the icing on the cake. It’s a real tribute to colleagues at GWR and Network Rail who have worked so hard on developing fast-charge technology.

“Today’s record attempt has been a bit of fun, but it also underlines a serious point: investment in battery technology is essential as we look to replace our ageing diesel fleet.

“Overhead lines will remain the first choice to power electric trains, but where that isn’t possible or desirable, battery technology like this offers a reliable and efficient alternative to bridge the gap.

“As part of our future rolling stock plans we’ll need battery trains to routinely cover over 60 miles between charges – and today’s achievement provides clear evidence that this is a viable and exciting solution for the future of our railway.”

More

New world record set for furthest distance travelled by battery train | The Railway Hub

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Exponent Calculator

Enter values into any two of the input fields to solve for the third.

Exponent Calculator

This weekend’s music diversion. Mr. Handel goes highbrow setting music to Shakespeare. 4 million + views! Approx. 7 minutes. 

Handel: As steals the morn (L'Allegro, HWV 55) Amanda Forsythe & Thomas Cooley, Voices of Music 4K

Handel: As steals the morn (L'Allegro, HWV 55) Amanda Forsythe & Thomas Cooley, Voices of Music 4K

Next, more of Trump’s tariffs mischief. Approx. 5 minutes.

Trump Stunned as 50% Aluminum Tariff Backfires — 100,000 US Workers Laid Off!

Trump Stunned as 50% Aluminum Tariff Backfires — 100,000 US Workers Laid Off! - YouTube

Finally, Windsor Castle 10 miles east of my flat and well worth a visit. Approx. 4 minutes.

Visit Windsor Castle: Official Video

Visit Windsor Castle: Official Video

If economists could manage to get themselves thought of as humble, competent people on a level with dentists, that would be splendid.

John Maynard Keynes