Baltic
Dry Index. 1783 +120 Brent Crude 68.93
Spot Gold 3360 US 2 Year Yield 3.90 unch.
US Federal Debt. 37.104 trillion
US GDP 30.136 trillion.
Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world. Fiat money in extremis is accepted by nobody. Gold is always accepted.
Alan Greenspan
As we await Uncle Sam’s latest consumer inflation data for June later today, it’s already turned out to be a boom day for communist China.
Exports are rising again and President Trump’s Nvidia semi-conductor export chip restrictions on sales to China, are over. Who won?
In US CPI data for June, will the first sign of Trump tariff inflation star showing up, or is June likely to be the last month of calm before the tariff inflation storm hits in H2 25?
Asia-Pacific markets mostly rise after China’s
second-quarter growth beats estimates
Updated Tue, Jul 15 2025 12:13 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose Tuesday
after China’s second-quarter economic growth topped analysts’ forecast.
The country’s gross
domestic product expanded by 5.2% in the second quarter, according to
China’s National Bureau of Statistics, surpassing the 5.1% growth forecast by
economists polled by Reuters. However, the latest reading is weaker than the
5.4% growth registered in the first quarter.
Investors are awaiting second-quarter
earnings on Wall Street and a key inflation reading after all three key
benchmarks in the U.S. ended Monday’s session higher.
Asia
stock markets today: live updates
China's exports jump 5.8% in June as tariffs
reprieve prompts a rush of orders
14 July 2025
China’s exports accelerated in June as a
reprieve on U.S. tariffs prompted a rush of orders by companies and consumers.
Exports climbed 5.8% from a year earlier,
up from a 4.8% rise in May. Imports also recovered, growing 1.1% in the first
increase so far this year, according to customs data released Monday.
Exports to the United States fell 16% but
that was less than half the 34.5% drop seen in May.
After U.S. President Donald
Trump imposed tariffs of up to 245% on imports from China and Beijing responded
with its own steep import duties, the two sides agreed to hold back to allow
time for talks. But preliminary discussions between the two sides have yet to
produce significant progress.
In the meantime, the Trump administration
has hiked tariffs on imports from China by 35%, pending an Aug. 12 deadline for
reverting to the higher tariffs Washington and
Beijing have delayed for now.
The recovery in trade is expected to help
boost economic growth in the April to June quarter. The Chinese government is
due to report those figures on Tuesday.
China's
exports jump 5.8% in June as tariffs reprieve prompts a rush of orders
Nvidia says it will resume H20 AI chip sales to
China ‘soon,’ following U.S. government assurances
Published Mon, Jul 14 2025 10:28 PM EDT
Nvidia said
Tuesday that it hopes to resume sales of its H20 general processing units to
China, in a major win for the company that has suffered from U.S. export curbs.
The U.S. government in April told Nvidia
it would require a license to sell the chips to China, the company said
in a filing, effectively halting their sales. The H20 chips
had been designed specifically to bypass earlier export controls on Beijing.
“The U.S. government has assured NVIDIA
that licenses will be granted, and NVIDIA hopes to start deliveries soon,” the
company said in a statement Tuesday.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang in recent months
has ramped up his lobbying against export controls, arguing that they inhibited
American tech leadership. In May, Huang said chip restrictions had already cut
Nvidia’s China market
share nearly in half.
The potential change in U.S. stance
follows a meeting between Huang and U.S. President Donald Trump last week.
During the talks, Huang had reaffirmed Nvidia’s support for the
administration’s job creation and onshoring efforts, as well as the aim for America
to lead in global AI, the company said.
Washington and Beijing last month agreed
to a preliminary trade framework that allowed relaxing rare-earth export
controls by China and easing of tech export curbs by the U.S.
Huang also announced a new “fully
compliant” GPU — RTX PRO — saying it was ideal for smart factories and
logistics. It was not clear if the reference was to the GPU being compliant
with guidelines for exports to China.
More
Nvidia
says it hopes to resume H20 AI chip sales to China 'soon'
US Inflation Expected to Accelerate in June Over
Tariffs
July 14, 2025 at 10:56 PM GMT+1
Economists have long warned of a
tariff-driven boost to US inflation, and the next report on consumer prices
will put their conviction to the test. For four months, consumer price
index readings from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics have come in cooler than
what economists predicted, and those forecasters are again warning
of acceleration, with June data due Tuesday. Economists see price
rises in tariff-exposed categories including furniture, toys, recreational
goods and cars.
There’s widespread consensus among Federal
Reserve officials and private-sector forecasters that inflation will turn
higher during the summer as businesses start passing on President Donald
Trump’s tariffs to consumers. While many firms chose to initially shield
customers by stocking up on inventories in advance or even absorbing part of
the higher costs at the expense of lower margins, some are now running out of
options. —Natasha
Solo-Lyons
US
Inflation Expected to Accelerate in June Due to Tariffs: Evening Briefing -
Bloomberg
In other news.
In rare earth metals power struggle with China,
old laptops, phones may get a new life
Published Sun, Jul 13 2025 10:55 AM EDT
As the U.S. and China vie for economic,
technological and geopolitical supremacy, the critical elements and metals
embedded in technology from consumer to industrial and military markets have
become a pawn in the wider conflict. That’s nowhere more so the case than in
China’s leverage over the rare earth metals supply chain. This past week, the
Department of Defense took a large
equity stake in MP Materials, the company
running the only rare earths mining operation in the U.S.
But there’s another option to combat the
rare earths shortage that goes back to an older idea: recycling. The business
has come a long way from collecting cans, bottles, plastic, newspaper and other
consumer disposables, otherwise destined for landfills, to recreate all sorts
of new products.
Today, next-generation recyclers — a mix
of legacy companies and startups — are innovating ways to gather and process
the ever-growing mountains of electronic waste, or e-waste, which comprises
end-of-life and discarded computers, smartphones, servers, TVs, appliances,
medical devices, and other electronics and IT equipment. And they are doing so
in a way that is aligned to the newest critical technologies in society. Most
recently, spent EV batteries, wind turbines and solar panels are fostering a burgeoning
recycling niche.
The e-waste recycling opportunity isn’t
limited to rare earth elements. Any electronics that can’t be wholly
refurbished and resold, or cannibalized for replacement parts needed to keep
existing electronics up and running, can berecycled to strip out gold, silver,
copper, nickel, steel, aluminum, lithium, cobalt and other metals vital to
manufacturers in various industries. But increasingly, recyclers are extracting
rare-earth elements, such as neodymium, praseodymium, terbium and dysprosium,
which are critical in making everything from fighter jets to power tools.
“Recycling [of e-waste] hasn’t been taken
too seriously until recently” as a meaningful source of
supply, said Kunal Sinha, global head of recycling at Swiss-based Glencore, a major miner,
producer and marketer of metals and minerals — and, to a much lesser but
growing degree, an e-waste recycler. “A lot of people are still sleeping at the
wheel and don’t realize how big this can be,” Sinha said.
Traditionally, U.S. manufacturers purchase
essential metals and rare earths from domestic and foreign producers — an
inordinate number based in China — that fabricate mined raw materials, or
through commodities traders. But with those supply chains now disrupted by
unpredictable tariffs, trade policies and geopolitics, the market for recycled
e-waste is gaining importance as a way to feed the insatiable electrification
of everything.
“The United States imports a lot of
electronics, and all of that is coming with gold and aluminum and steel,” said
John Mitchell, president and CEO of the Global Electronics Association, an
industry trade group. “So there’s a great opportunity to actually have the
tariffs be an impetus for greater recycling in this country for goods that we
don’t have, but are buying from other countries.”
More
Rare earths
conflict with China giving new life to old PCs, phones
In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value.
Alan Greenspan
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Where's
the inflation? Not in stores — yet
July
14, 2025
It
is one of those mysteries that drive economists and politicians a little bit
crazy.
The
Trump Administration is raising tariffs in a bid to reset world trade. Tariffs
usually cause prices to rise, but, to paraphrase the late Clara Peller, where's
the inflation?
Probably
it's on the way but slowly.
Business
works that way. You can plug a lot of numbers into a spreadsheet and get
immediate answers to questions like "How much inflation?" But the
reality can and will be slow in emerging.
So,
the Trump Administration is arguing there is no real inflation threat, and the
Federal Reserve should cut interest rates. The Fed's federal funds rate is a
4.25% to 4.5%.
But
critics will note that tariff increases only started in April, and goods coming
into the United States might take two to three weeks to make the crossing from,
say, Shanghai to Los Angeles.
Then,
it takes time to get to the customers' warehouse and more time to arrive at
their ultimate destination.
And
if the retailer guesses that tariffs would boost costs and brought inventory in
before the tariffs took effect, then the prices may not reflect the added
costs.
CPI
and PPI reports expected to be subdued
So,
two economic reports will test that theory this week: The Consumer Price Index
report, due Tuesday, and the Producer Price Index report, due Wednesday.
Both
are expected to show inflation ticking up slightly in June from May, though not
by much. FactSet expects consumer prices to rise 0.23% on the month and 2.6%
year-over-year. Excluding food and energy, the gains are expected to be as much
as 3% year-over-year.
Lord
knows, the government is collecting a lot of tariff revenue: $27.2 billion in
June and more than $113 billion so far in the 2024-25 fiscal year. The
fiscal year ends on Sept. 30.
Why
the delay for an effect on the CPI: Because, probably, retailers are waiting
for as long as possible to boost prices. Toyota (TM) is
planning to raise its prices by an average $270 per vehicle starting in July.
Walmart (WMT) has already raised prices on toys and
imported foods, like bananas.
Economists
from Bank of America expect that a rise in core goods prices will be the main
driver of the acceleration of inflation in June, Morningstar's Sarah Hansen
wrote in a Friday article. They cited “broad-based price hikes … owing in part
to tariffs.” They are also looking for an uptick in prices in the services
category, including hotels and airfares, as well as in medical services.
At
the same time, the Producer Price Index report, due Wednesday, also show some
acceleration of costs as well. It's an early signal of what consumer inflation
might look like. To produce and deliver goods takes energy, and the price of
crude oil is up nearly 20% since their April bottom. But, again, it's
early in the cycle.
More
reports to watch for
Weekly
jobless claims report. Due Thursday. This measures worker
filing for unemployment claims from the week before. It's a good early warning
signal for the economy.
The
Fed's Beige Book report. Due Wednesday afternoon. The narrative report
surveys all of the Federal Reserve Bank districts and should offer some insight
as what price pressures businesses are seeing what they're doing to cope.
Home
builder confidence. Due Thursday from the National Association of Home
Builders. This report has shown how frustrated builders are about the state of
the housing market. The problem many builders find now is that mortgage rates
are still relatively high and, combined with stubbornly high prices, makes
selling a new home difficult.
Housing
starts. Due
Friday morning. This will quantify how active the new-home universe. Housing
starts are a tricky number because they're imputed. Permits are a better gauge
they measure approvals to start construction.
Where's the
inflation? Not in stores — yet
There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold. Yes, gold which never changes, which can be shaped into ingots, bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence.
Charles de Gaulle
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Solid-batteries just got real — and they’re rolling off production
lines: What you need to know
14 July 2025
Backed by Chery and Gotion High-Tech,
China’s Anoa New Energy (ANE) has started producing solid-state battery samples
— and says mass production could begin as early as next year.
With 300 Wh/kg energy density, it's not
revolutionary, but it’s real — and that's the biggest shift yet.
ANE, also known as Axxiva (founded
in June 2020), shared their first batch of engineering samples of solid-state
batteries, which rolled off their production line.
ANE is focused entirely on solid-state
battery development and production. It also aims to launch a gigawatt-hour
level solid-state battery assembly.
The first-gen ANE batteries have an
energy density of a somewhat disappointing 300 Wh/kg.
For context, Tesla's 4680 battery cells
have an estimated energy density of around 270 Wh/kg, with a range between 244
to 296 Wh/kg.
Improvement
So 300 Wh/kg for these solid-state
batteries isn’t amazing, but it's still a solid improvement — enough to offer
very good range. Improving energy density by even 10% is significant.
Chery New Energy controls 10% of the
company. Gotion High-Tech, another big battery player in China, holds 6%.
No-fire-no-explosion test
The first batch of solid-state batteries
was produced at their Wuhu Economic and Technological Development Zone on July
4. These are engineering samples, but they’ve reportedly passed China's “no
fire, no explosion” safety standards, meaning they are very safe and have
undergone significant testing.
So, how many batteries will they
actually make?
The planned production capacity is 1.25
GWh, with a production speed of 20 metres per minute. They use laser “slitting
technology” to reduce dust pollution during manufacturing, ensuring high
precision and minimizing defects.
Dry manufacturing process
ANE reportedly uses a five-step dry
manufacturing process, similar to Tesla’s, which reduces energy consumption and
fixed asset investment, thanks to the use of dry electrode manufacturing
method.
The site is expected to include a 5 GWh
solid-state battery R&D center and a fully integrated automated production
line.
Back to energy density: the current
version is 300 Wh/kg. The second-gen version, expected in 2026, aims for 400
Wh/kg, and by 2027 they hope to reach 500 Wh/kg.
If that’s accurate, an 80 kWh battery
with 500 Wh/kg energy density could provide a range of about 1,000 km —
potentially more. A 100 kWh battery would offer even more range, and could be
great for towing or long trips without worrying about range anxiety.
As for which vehicles will use them:
apparently, the Chery Exlantix ET has been spotted driving with a solid-state
battery — it’s even labeled on the vehicle.
Chery plans to use them in their new
electric cars.
More
Solid-batteries just got real — and they’re rolling off production lines:
What you need to know
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
The
gold standard makes the money's purchasing power independent of the changing,
ambitions and doctrines of political parties and pressure groups. This is not a
defect of the gold standard; it is its main excellence.
Ludwig von Mises
