Baltic Dry Index. 2715 +70 Brent Crude 82.21
Spot Gold 1794
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 24/11/21 World 259,051,318
Deaths 5,183,601
The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.
Ernest Hemingway.
On the rumour that President Biden was arranging a coordinated crude oil release from strategic stockpiles, Brent crude oil sold off from about 82 dollars a barrel to about 78 dollars a barrel.
On the announced details of the released oil, the oil market seems to think it’s the wrong type of oil and not enough of a release anyway.
Goldman thinks the release will bring little in the way of price relief, with oil prices still headed towards their target of Brent crude headed towards trading in the 90’s.
If President Biden’s next desperate move to revive his poll numbers is the stop US exports of crude, currently running at about 3 million barrels a day, Goldie thinks it will be counter productive. Generating an unusable extra 3 mbpd in the USA and generating a scramble for light crude in the rest of the world creating higher prices and more global inflation.
Perhaps someone at Goldie could get in touch with President Biden and explain to him how the oil game works.
Up first Asian casinos waiting for the next shoe to fall. (War with China over Taiwan next year?)
Japan drops nearly 2% in mixed Asia trading; New Zealand dollar falls after central bank announces rate hike
SINGAPORE — Shares in Asia-Pacific were mixed in Wednesday trade, with Japanese stocks leading losses regionally.
The Nikkei 225 in Japan fell 1.79% while the Topix index declined 1.32%. Markets in Japan were closed on Tuesday for a holiday. South Korea’s Kospi dipped 0.44%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index sat fractionally lower while mainland Chinese stocks dipped, with the Shanghai composite down about 0.1% and the Shenzhen component declining fractionally.
Elsewhere in Asia, the Straits Times index in Singapore gained 0.14%.
Singapore’s economy grew 7.1% in the third quarter as compared with a year ago, according to the Ministry of Trade and Industry. It was higher than an earlier official advance estimate for 6.5% year-on-year growth.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 stood little changed.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.25%.
The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has climbed since President Joe Biden announced his renomination of Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair. It last sat at 1.6374%, compared with levels around 1.55% seen earlier in the week.
In other central bank developments, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday announced its decision to raise the official cash rate to 0.75%, in line with expectations of most economists in a Reuters poll.
The rise in Treasury yields has weighed on technology stocks on Wall Street, with the Nasdaq Composite falling 0.5% overnight stateside to 15,775.14. Higher rates are often seen as a negative for high-growth firms in sectors like tech as their future earnings look less attractive against a backdrop of rising short-term yields.
Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 194.55 points to 35,813.80 while the S&P 500 climbed about 0.17% to 4,690.70.
The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its peers, was at 96.556 following its climb earlier in the week from below 96.4.
----Oil prices were mixed in the afternoon of Asia trading hours, with international benchmark Brent crude futures down 0.17% to $82.17 per barrel. U.S. crude futures hovered mildly higher at $78.52 per barrel.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/24/asia-markets-us-treasury-yields-federal-reserve-currencies-oil.html
Oil mixed, investors sceptical about effectiveness of joint reserve release
November 24, 2021 4:58 AM GMT
TOKYO, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Oil prices largely held gains Wednesday, with investors sceptical about the effectiveness of a U.S.-led coordinated release of stocks from strategic reserves and turning their focus to the next step by oil producers.
Brent crude futures slid 7 cents, or 0.1%, to $82.24 a barrel by 0432 GMT, having risen 3.3% on Tuesday.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 10 cents, or 0.1%, to $78.60 a barrel, following a 2.3% gain in the previous day.
"Investors were disappointed by the small size of the joint oil release by the United States and other countries," said
Satoru Yoshida, a commodity analyst with Rakuten Securities.
"Also, the coordinated efforts by oil consuming countries raised fears that OPEC+ may slow their output increase pace," he said, adding that market's attention is now turned toward the next OPEC+ producer group meeting on Dec. 2.
The United States said on Tuesday it would release millions of barrels of oil from strategic reserves in coordination with China, India, South Korea, Japan and Britain, to try to cool prices after OPEC+ producers repeatedly ignored calls for more crude. read more
Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said on Wednesday his government would release some oil reserves, without giving details. The Nikkei newspaper reported Japan will hold auctions for about 4.2 million barrels of oil out of its national stockpile by the end of this year. read more
Analysts said the effect on prices of the coordinated release was likely to be short-lived after years of declining investment and a strong global recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. read more
The coordinated release may add about 70 million to 80 million barrels of crude supply, smaller than the more-than-100 million barrels the market has been pricing in, analysts at Goldman Sachs said. read more
"The threat of more supply in the short term certainly creates an artificially looser oil market for the next 1-2 month period," Louise Dickson, senior oil markets analyst at Rystad Energy, said in a report.
"However, the move by (U.S. President Joe) Biden and other leaders may just be pushing the supply issue down the timeline, as emptying out storage will put even further strain on already low oil stockpiles," he added.
All eyes are on how the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia and their allies, together called OPEC+, will react to the joint reserve release when they meet on Dec. 2 to discuss policy.
More
Biden Releases Sour Crude That’s Out of Favor With U.S. Refiners
Tue, November 23, 2021, 5:03 PM
(Bloomberg) -- President Joe Biden’s move to unleash supplies from U.S. petroleum reserves will flood the market with sour crude that refiners are currently shunning.
Sour crudes are heavy in sulfur content, requiring additional refining that typically needs natural gas, which has doubled in price this year. If the crude is not used, it could end up being stored in oil tanks or exported away and may not have the intended effect of reducing gasoline prices. Already, a record volume of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve was exported in October.
The Department of Energy is offering 32 million barrels of oil in an exchange that will need to be returned to the SPR during 2022, 2023, and 2024. It will also offer 18 million barrels of SPR crude oil after Dec. 17. Both tranches will be of sour crude, the DOE said in response to questions.
More
https://www.yahoo.com/news/biden-releases-sour-crude-favor-170320352.html
China "has the upper hand" as U.S. asks Beijing to release oil reserves - Global Times
November 24, 2021 3:42 AM GMT
SHANGHAI, Nov 24 (Reuters) - The United States is "turning to China for help" to cool inflation by releasing some of its oil reserves, the state-backed Global Times said in an editorial on Wednesday, adding that the move will benefit everyone but China "has the upper hand."
Washington has asked some of the world's largest oil consuming nations including Japan, South Korea, India and China to consider releasing some millions of barrels of oil from strategic reserves in a coordinated effort to lower prices and stimulate the economic recovery. read more
China's state reserve bureau later said it is working on a release of crude oil reserves but declined to comment on the U.S. request. read more
Inflation is threatening President Biden's Democratic Party in next year's mid-term elections, said the Global Times.
"As a result, the Biden administration will have to turn to China again. This is a direction that benefits everyone, but China clearly has the upper hand."
The Global Times is published by the People's Daily, the official newspaper of China's ruling Communist Party.
More
Next, someone in Washington seems to want war with China but why? Why now? Who wins at swapping cities?
Biden administration invites Taiwan to its Summit for Democracy
By Humeyra Pamuk November 24, 2021 3:25 AM GMT
WASHINGTON, Nov 23 (Reuters) - The Biden administration has invited Taiwan to its "Summit for Democracy" next month, according to a list of participants published on Tuesday, a move likely to infuriate China, which views the democratically governed island as its territory.
The first-of-its-kind gathering is a test of President Joe Biden's assertion, announced in his first foreign policy address in office in February, that he would return the United States to global leadership to face down authoritarian forces led by China and Russia.
There are 110 participants on the State Department's invitation list for the virtual event on Dec. 9 and 10, which aims to help stop democratic backsliding and the erosion of rights and freedoms worldwide. read more The list does not include China or Russia.
The invite for Taiwan comes as China has stepped up pressure on countries to downgrade or sever relations with the island, which is considered by Beijing to have no right to the trappings of a state. read more
----Sharp differences over Taiwan persisted during a virtual meeting earlier this month between Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
While Biden reiterated long-standing U.S. support for the "One China" policy under which it officially recognizes Beijing rather than Taipei, he also said he "strongly opposes unilateral efforts to change the status quo or undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait," the White House said.
Xi said that those in Taiwan who seek independence, and their supporters in the United States, were "playing with fire," according to state news agency Xinhua.
----The State Department list shows the event will bring together mature democracies such as France and Sweden but also countries such as the Philippines, India and Poland, where activists say democracy is under threat.
In Asia, some U.S. allies such as Japan and South Korea were invited, while others like Thailand and Vietnam were not. Other notable absentees were U.S. allies Egypt and NATO member Turkey. Representation from the Middle East will be slim, with Israel and Iraq the only two countries invited.
“In peace, sons bury their fathers. In war, fathers bury their sons.”
Herodotus.
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
China facing ‘quasi-stagflation’ risk as rising factory prices increase pressure on slowing economy
· China’s official consumer price index (CPI) rose by 1.5 per cent in October, but its producer price index (PPI) rose by 13.5 per cent last month from a year earlier
· China’s economic growth slowed to a rise of 4.9 per cent in the third quarter compared with a year earlier, down from 7.9 per cent growth in the second quarter
Published: 8:30pm, 22 Nov, 2021
With the economy facing “periodic, structural, and cyclical constraints” amid rising concerns over upcoming growth prospects, China could enter into a period of “quasi-stagflation”, a central bank adviser has warned.
Liu Shijin, a member of the monetary policy committee at the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), said that while inflation risks are under control, a persistently high producer price index (PPI) – which reflects the prices factories charge wholesalers for their products – may add pressure to the overall risk of inflation.
China’s consumer inflation has remained subdued recently, with prices rising by just 1.5 per cent in October from a year earlier, up from a rise of 0.7 per cent in September, but the PPI rose by 13.5 per cent last month from a year earlier, up from 10.7 per cent in September – the highest since July 1995.
“It’s possible that the speed of economic growth is too slow, along with high prices, I am referring to mainly PPI, but whether it will spill over to [the consumer price index], we need to monitor,” Liu said on Sunday at an online event organised by Renmin University of China, adding that China could enter into a period of “quasi-stagflation”.
Stagflation is a situation in which low economic growth and high inflation occur at the same time, potentially leading to higher unemployment and lower wage growth.
China’s economy grew by 4.9 per cent in the third quarter compared with a year earlier, down from the 7.9 per cent growth seen in the second quarter.
In its third quarter monetary policy implementation report, released on Friday, the PBOC said that it will continue to strike a balance between economic growth and risk control, but acknowledged that it is becoming increasingly difficult to keep the economy running smoothly as a result of “periodic, structural, and cyclical constraints”.
----Policymakers and advisers are becoming increasingly concerned about China’s growth prospects and Beijing has stepped up its efforts to deleverage the property sector and curb the risks posed by off-balance borrowing, the so-called hidden debt by local governments.
More
London recovery: West End busier than week before as shoppers get into Christmas spirit
Monday 22 November 2021 3:49 pm
Central London was busier last week than the previous week, as shoppers got into the festive spirit.
Shopping destinations including Oxford Street and Regent Street saw an 8.3 per cent boost to footfall, in the week beginning 14 November.
In a further endorsement for the City’s rebound, London’s office hubs were also busier than the week before. There was a 6 per cent uptick in footfall, according to the retail expert’s ‘back to the office’ metric.
However, in comparison to pre-pandemic levels, London is still lagging behind. Footfall in central London was down 15.9 per cent compared to the same week in 2019.
Back to the office
What’s more, the ‘back to the office’ measure recorded a 20.6 per cent drop on 2019 levels, for office areas in central London.
Footfall has risen after Christmas lights were turned on across the West End and ahead of Black Friday, with many retailers launching deals in the run up to the discount day.
Diane Wehrle, insights director at Springboard, said: “The beginning of the Christmas trading period began in earnest in many retail destinations last week, and it had an increasingly positive impact on shopper activity, ahead of Black Friday. In contrast with the week before when footfall rose at the weekend following the switch on of Christmas lights in a number of destinations, last week footfall rose from the previous week on every day apart from Sunday when it was flat from the week before.”
Across all retail destinations, the increase in footfall last week was nearly three times that of the week before.
More
Whoever controls the volume of money in our country is absolute master of all industry and commerce...when you realize that the entire system is very easily controlled, one way or another, by a few powerful men at the top, you will not have to be told how periods of inflation and depression originate.
James A. Garfield.
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Europe and Central Asia could suffer another 700,000 Covid deaths by spring as infections soar, WHO says
Europe and Central Asia could reach more than 2.2 million total Covid-19 deaths by next March as countries battle a surge of the highly transmissible delta variant, the World Health Organization’s office for the region wrote in a statement released Tuesday.
The forecast for the months ahead comes as the 53-country region passes 1.5 million Covid deaths, with the virus now becoming the leading cause of death in both Europe and Central Asia, the WHO’s Europe branch said. The region is currently experiencing nearly 4,200 deaths per day, twice the daily deaths recorded at the end of September, the statement noted.
The WHO’s regional office in Copenhagen, Denmark covers Europe as well as Israel, Turkey and the Central Asian nations of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
---- In addition to the enhanced contagiousness of the delta strain, the statement blamed the region’s surge on the continent’s unvaccinated population and the decision of many countries to roll back mask wearing and social distancing. The WHO previously cautioned that winter could drive outbreaks in Europe as people gather close together indoors with poor ventilation, conditions that facilitate transmission of the virus.
More
White House: U.S. not headed toward another COVID-19 lockdown
Nov. 23, 2021 / 4:31 AM
Nov. 23 (UPI) -- With the COVID-19 mitigation tools at the ready, the United States is not headed toward a lockdown, the White House said as European nations either institute or mull reinstating such measures as they combat spiking cases.
"We are not headed in that direction," White House coronavirus response coordinator Jeff Zients said during a teleconference briefing on Monday.
Zients' assurance came as Austria entered a lockdown Monday and several other European nations consider tightening restrictions amid surging infections.
The coronavirus response chief told reporters that the United States has the tools -- mainly widely available vaccinations -- to prevent the need for the economically stifling measure the country experienced last year.
"We have 82% of people now with one shot, and more and more people getting vaccinated," he said, adding that 71% of adults are fully vaccinated while 95% of Americans as young as 5 years of age eligible for the vaccine. He added that another 36 million have received a booster shots.
"This is under control," he said.
He also said President Joe Biden's mandate issued in September for the 3.5 million federal workers to have been fully vaccinated by Monday night has achieved 95% compliance -- meaning having received at least one shot or either a religious or medical exemption -- with 90% already having been full vaccinated.
More
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2021/11/23/COVID-19-United-States-lockdown/3721637656785/
U.S. issues 'Do Not Travel' COVID-19 warning for Germany, Denmark
November 22, 2021 10:15 PM GMT
WASHINGTON, Nov 22 (Reuters) - The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the State Department on Monday advised against travel to Germany and Denmark because of a rising number of COVID-19 cases in those countries.
The CDC elevated its travel recommendation to "Level Four: Very High" for the two European countries, telling Americans they should avoid travel there, while the State Department issued parallel "Do Not Travel" advisories for both countries.
The CDC currently lists about 75 destinations worldwide at Level Four, with many European countries on the list including Austria, Britain, Belgium, Greece, Norway, Switzerland, Romania, Ireland and the Czech Republic.
Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel told leaders of her conservative party that measures being taken to stop the spread of the coronavirus in Europe's biggest economy were insufficient and that stronger action needed to be taken, Reuters reported on Monday. read more
Case numbers in Germany have been soaring, especially among the elderly whose first two shots of COVID-19 vaccine were at the start of the year, and among children who are not eligible for inoculation.
More
India logs slimmest rise in COVID-19 cases in 543 days despite festivals
November 23, 2021 5:43 AM GMT
NEW DELHI, Nov 23 (Reuters) - India reported 7,579 new coronavirus infections on Tuesday, the smallest rise in one-and-a-half-years despite huge festival gatherings in recent weeks, thanks to rising vaccinations and antibodies from prior infections.
The country of 1.35 billion celebrated Durga Puja in October and Diwali this month, during which millions of people shopped, travelled and met family, mostly without masks. Mask-wearing is nearly non-existent outside the big cities.
"Even after Diwali, we are not seeing a surge," said M.D. Gupte, a former director of the state-run National Institute of Epidemiology, attributing it mainly to the presence of antibodies in a huge majority of Indians through natural infection.
"I think we are much safer now."
Government surveys have estimated that nearly 70% of Indians had been naturally infected by July, following a record rise in infections and deaths in April and May.
So far, 81% of India's 944 million adults have received at least one dose of vaccine and 43% have had two doses. Vaccination for people under 18 has not yet begun. read more
India has reported a total of 34.5 million COVID-19 cases, second only to the tally in the United States. India's COVID deaths rose by 236 in the past 24 hours to 466,147.
Daily testing has also fallen, dipping below 1 million on Monday compared with a capacity of more than 2 million.
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
UN Finds Nuclear is the Lowest Carbon Electricity Source
Nuclear power produces less CO2 emissions over its lifecycle than any other electricity source, according to a new report by UNECE. In its analysis of lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions, the commission found that nuclear has the lowest carbon footprint, measured in grams of CO2 equivalent per kilowatt-hour (kWh) of electricity, of any technology.
The report also finds nuclear to have the lowest lifecycle land use, as well as the lowest lifecycle mineral and metal requirements of all the clean technologies. Nuclear’s sustainability makes it a vital tool in helping Britain achieve net zero alongside renewable sources.
Nuclear and renewables are all zero-carbon at the point of generation, but every electricity source produces some CO2 at various stages, including construction, operation and decommissioning. The UNECE study says nuclear ranges from 5.1 – 6.4g CO2 equivalent per kWh of generation. For comparison, wind is 7.8 – 21g CO2 eq./kWh and solar ranges from 7.2 – 83g CO2 eq./kWh. All are many times lower than gas at 403 – 513g CO2 eq./kWh and coal at 753 – 1095g CO2 eq./kWh.
The UNECE report supports the findings of a separate independent report into the lifecycle emissions of Britain’s newest nuclear power projects, Hinkley Point C and Sizewell C. That report found that the two projects were likely to have a lifecycle impact of 5.5g CO2 eq./kWh.
The two projects would have the lowest carbon intensity and highest clean energy output of any in British history
More
https://www.azocleantech.com/news.aspx?newsID=30671
Continued inflation inevitably leads to catastrophe.
Ludwig von Mises.
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