Saturday 27 November 2021

Special Update Omicron Panic And Rout. mRNA Bad News.

Baltic Dry Index. 2767 +89 Brent Crude 72.72

Spot Gold 1803

Covid-19 cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Covid-19 cases 27/11/21 World 260,909,192

Deaths 5,206,812

"Anytime you don't want anything, you get it."

Calvin Coolidge, 30th President of the United States.

The global stock casinos, airlines, cruise lines and the crude oil market didn’t want anything, but got it anyway yesterday in the form of a new, highly troubling Covid-19 “variant of concern,” that can possibly escape the current vaccines. [For more on more bad vaccine news even without this new VOC, scroll down to the Covid-19 section. Do the new mRNA vaccines come with increased risk of heart disease.]

What should have been a quiet Friday trading session as the Christmas holiday selling season got underway turned into a “Shock and Awe” panic and rout.

It’s far to early to know if this new scary VOC will turn out to be as bad as feared, but stocks were mostly flying on fumes anyway, and like the early bird, selling out first always beats getting carried out last.

Crude oil dropped ten dollars in anticipation of more restrictions on international travel and more lockdowns in Europe.

Bah humbug! Was that the end of the 2021 Santa Claus rally?

Dow tumbles 900 points for worst day of year on fears of new Covid variant, S&P 500 drops 2%

U.S. stocks dropped sharply on Friday as a new Covid variant found in South Africa triggered a global shift away from risk assets.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 905.04 points, or 2.53%, for its worst day of the year, closing at 34,899.34. The S&P 500 lost 2.27% to close at 4,594.62, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 2.23% to finish at 15,491.66. The Dow was down more than 1,000 points at session lows.

The downward moves came after World Health Organization officials on Thursday warned of a new Covid-19 variant that’s been detected in South Africa. The new variant contains more mutations to the spike protein, the component of the virus that binds to cells, than the highly contagious delta variant. Because of these mutations, scientists fear it could have increased resistance to vaccines, though WHO said further investigation is needed. On Friday, the WHO deemed the new strain a variant of concern and named it omicron.

The United Kingdom temporarily suspended flights from six African countries due to the variant. Israel barred travel to several nations after reporting one case in a traveler. Two cases were identified in Hong Kong. Belgium also confirmed a case.

“When I read that there’s one [case] in Belgium and one in Botswana, we’re going to wake up next week and find one in this country. And I’m not going to recommend anyone buy anything today until we’re sure that isn’t going to happen, and I can’t be sure that it won’t,” CNBC’s Jim Cramer said.

Bond prices rose and yields tumbled amid a flight to safety. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note fell 15 basis points to 1.49% (1 basis point equals 0.01%). This was a sharp reversal, as yields jumped earlier in the week to above 1.68% at one point. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

Asia markets were hit hard in Friday trade, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index both falling more than 2%. Germany’s Dax index slid more than 4%. Bitcoin fell 8%.

The Cboe Volatility Index, often referred to as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” rose to 28, its highest level in two months. Oil prices also tumbled, with U.S. crude futures down 12% and breaking below $70 per barrel.

Travel-related stocks were hit hardest, with Carnival Corp. and Royal Caribbean down 11% and 13.2%, respectively. United Airlines dropped more than 9%, while American Airlines dropped 8.8%. Boeing lost more than 5%, and Marriott International fell nearly 6.5%.

Bank shares retreated on fears of the slowdown in economic activity and the retreat in rates. Bank of America dropped 3.9%, and Citigroup slid 2.7%.

Industrials linked to the global economy declined, led by Caterpillar, off by 4%. Chevron dropped 2.3% as energy stocks reacted to the rollover in crude prices.

On the flip side, investors huddled into the vaccine makers. Moderna shares surged more than 20%. Pfizer shares added 6.1%.

Some of the stay-at-home plays that gained in the earlier months of the pandemic were higher again. Zoom Video and Peloton each added more than 5%.

Friday was a shortened trading day because of the Thanksgiving holiday with U.S. markets closing at 1 p.m. ET. Holiday weeks often have relatively light trading volume, which can amplify moves in the market.

“It’s important to stress that very little is known at this point about this latest strain, including whether it can evade vaccines or how severe it is relative to other mutations. Therefore, it’s hard to make any informed investment decisions at this point,” Bespoke Investment Group’s Paul Hickey said in a note to clients. 

More

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/26/stock-futures-open-to-close-market-news.html

A heavily mutated Covid variant emerges in southern Africa: Here’s what we know so far

The World Health Organization on Friday labeled a new heavily mutated strain of Covid-19 a variant of concern.

“This variant has a large number of mutations, some of which are concerning,” the WHO said in a statement released Friday. “Preliminary evidence suggests an increased risk of reinfection with this variant, as compared to other VOCs.”

The variant, first known as B.1.1.529 and now named omicron, has been detected in small numbers in South Africa, WHO officials said. However, the number of omicron cases “appears to be increasing” in almost all of South Africa’s provinces, the WHO reported on Friday. Israel and Hong Kong also reported cases.

Here’s what we know so far:

Multiple mutations

South African scientist Tulio de Oliveira said in a media briefing held by the South Africa Department of Health on Thursday that the variant contains a “unique constellation” of more than 30 mutations to the spike protein, the component of the virus that binds to cells. This is significantly more than those of the delta variant.

Many of these mutations are linked to increased antibody resistance, which may affect how the virus behaves with regard to vaccines, treatments and transmissibility, health officials have said.

De Oliveira said the variant contains around 50 mutations in total. The receptor binding domain, the part of the virus that first makes contact with cells, has 10 mutations, far greater than just two for the delta Covid variant, which spread rapidly earlier this year to become the dominant strain worldwide.

This level of mutation means it’s possible that it came from a single patient who could not clear the virus, giving it the chance to genetically evolve. The same hypothesis was proposed for the alpha Covid variant.

Maria Van Kerkhove, the WHO’s technical lead on Covid-19, said in a livestreamed Q&A on Thursday that scientists “don’t know very much about this yet” and that it would take a few weeks to gain a full picture of how the variant reacts to existing vaccines.

More

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/26/covid-variant-emerges-in-south-africa-heres-what-we-know-so-far.html?recirc=taboolainternal

"Liquidation sometimes is orderly, but more frequently degenerates into panic as the realization spreads that there is only so much money, not enough to enable everyone to sell out at the top."

Charles P. Kindleberger, author Manias, Panics and Crashes.

 

Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.    

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

One chart shows the dramatic drop-off in ship tracking data from China. This could be a sign of a worsening global supply chain crisis.

Fri, November 26, 2021, 6:08 AM

·         The number of AIS signals from ships in Chinese waters has plunged 85% in under a month.

·         Shipping companies use the data for a range of purposes, including the planning of shipping routes.

·         The decline in data could worsen the current supply chain crisis.

Ships in Chinese waters have vanished from tracking systems the maritime industry uses, a development that could worsen the global supply chain crisis.

The Automatic Identification System (AIS) — which relies on ships to send data to stations along the coastline or via satellites — has witnessed a plunge in the signals it receives in recent weeks.

Data from market intelligence and valuations provider VesselsValue show the number of signals in Chinese waters plunging 85% in under a month — from more than 100,000 a day on October 28 to over 15,000 a day on November 17.

The steep decline comes after China Personal Information Protection Law came into effect on November 1. The new rules regulate how domestic and foreign organizations collect and export the country's data.

There are no specific guidelines on shipping data due to the new regulations, but some domestic providers in China have stopped providing information to foreign companies due to the law, Reuters reported earlier this month.

Shipping companies use the data for a wide range of purposes, including the planning of shipping routes, logistical operations and congestion analysis.

As these signals typically provide the greatest data coverage and insight into shipping in Chinese ports, the decline in this data could significantly impact ocean supply chain visibility across China, one of the world's major trading countries, said VesselsValue's head trade analyst Charlotte Cook in an email statement to Insider.

"The increased availability and volume of AIS data in recent years has become something the industry widely depends on, allowing shipping lines to predict vessel movements ahead of time, track seasonal trends and improve port efficiency," said Cook.

"Ultimately, the significant reductions we are seeing in the count of vessels signaling in China will reduce the ability to accurately monitor vessel activity, and this could have knock-on effects to already squeezed global supply chains," she added.

"If this continues, there will be a big impact in terms of global visibility especially as we come into the busy Christmas period with supply chains already facing huge problems all over the world," Anastassis Touros, AIS network team leader at ship tracking and maritime intelligence MarineTraffic, told Reuters.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/one-chart-shows-dramatic-drop-060805745.html

Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.

The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking

https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf

Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check

"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle

by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/environmental-disaster-ev-battery-metals-crunch-horizon-industry-races-recycle

Covid-19 Corner                   

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

This weekend, the new concerning variant. Plus, do the mRNA vaccines come with an increased risk of heart disease and damage?

Bennett: ‘Israel on verge of COVID-19 emergency’

First case of South African variant of concern, B.1.1.529, discovered in Israel

MAAYAN JAFFE-HOFFMAN

Published: NOVEMBER 26, 2021 09:11  Updated: NOVEMBER 26, 2021 11:53

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has said that Israel is “on the verge of an emergency, and I ask everyone to be fully prepared and harnessed for work around the clock” after a case of the South African B.1.1.529 coronavirus variant was discovered in Israel.

Bennett held an emergency meeting on Friday morning to discuss the mutation and the implications it could have for the State of Israel.

“A few weeks ago, when we did the 'Omega' national exercise for a new lethal variant scenario, it would have seemed a bit detached,” the prime minister said. “Needless to say, this is one of the most significant moves that has prepared us exactly for the situation we are in now.”

----The variant was discovered late Thursday night, according to reports released Friday morning by the Health Ministry. It was detected in an individual who returned to Israel from Malawi. 

Two other cases of returnees from abroad are also suspected of being infected with the variant. They have been genetically sequenced and the results are pending. 

In all three cases, the travelers were vaccinated. The details of their vaccination are currently being verified.  

The B.1.1.529 is of particular concern because it has more than 30 mutations on the spike protein, explained Prof. Nadav Davidovitch, head of Ben-Gurion University of the Negev's School of Public Health.

Davidovitch said that the variant spread very quickly in South Africa, even faster than the Delta variant, and that there are concerns that the variant could cause a more severe disease. In South Africa, infection had been on the decline before the emergence of the B.1.1.529 variant. 

“The new variant is highly contagious,” Bennett warned, noting that he has been informed it is likely even more infectious than the Delta variant. “We are being updated by the South African health system, which is doing a very impressive job, but we do not yet have the full information. 

“In the coming days, our knowledge will expand very quickly,” he continued, “we will know whether the variant really evades immunity, at what rate, whether it is more deadly or not, how it affects children, and so on.” 

The prime minister said that Israel will “act fast and strong” - especially when it comes to allowing people to enter and exit the country until the nature of the variant becomes clearer. 

On Thursday, the prime minister said that Israel was purchasing a new variety of PCR tests that will be able to detect the new variant.

He is also reportedly expanding the country's purchase of Pfizer's oral antiviral coronavirus treatment, which has shown promise for treating patients in the early stages of the disease.

More

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/south-african-variant-of-concern-discovered-in-israel-687074

 

COVID-19 vaccine  [Heart disease risk.] GB News version, approx. 4 minutes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJ8t0qQ5R4I 

In depth medical/science version, approx. 24 minutes.

Heart risk after vaccines,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LEBGl8MVE-c

Next, some very useful vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.

World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccineshttps://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Trackerhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine trackerhttps://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some more useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Rt Covid-19

https://rt.live/

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Macrogrid study: Big value in connecting America’s eastern and western power grids

Date:  November 18, 2021

Source:  Iowa State University

Summary:  A 'macrogrid' that increases the electricity moving between America's Eastern and Western interconnections, two of the biggest power grids on the planet, would more than pay for itself, according to new research.

Two of the biggest power grids on the planet are connected by seven small threads.

Those seven threads (technically, they're back-to-back, high-voltage, direct-current connections) join America's Eastern and Western interconnections and have 1,320 megawatts of electric-power handling capacity. (The seam separating the grids runs, roughly, from eastern Montana, down the western borders of South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas and along the western edges of the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles. Texas, with its own grid, is mostly outside the two big grids.)

And they are big grids -- the eastern grid has a generating capacity of 700,000 megawatts and the western 250,000 megawatts. So, up to 1,320 megawatts isn't much electricity moving between the two.

But what if there were bigger connections between the two grids? What if more power moved back and forth? Could that move Iowa wind power, Southwest solar power and Eastern off-shore wind power from coast to coast? Could the West help the East meet its peak demand, and vice versa? Would bigger connections boost grid reliability, resilience and adaptability? Would the benefits exceed the costs?

The short answer: Yes.

That's according to the Interconnections Seam Study, a two-year, $1.5 million study launched as part of a $220 million Grid Modernization Initiative announced in January 2016 by the U.S. Department of Energy.

----McCalley said the macrogrid pays for itself in three primary ways:

1. Over a day, different parts of the country have peak demands at different times. With a macrogrid, different regions can help each other meet their daily peaks.

2. As coal- and gas-fired power plants are retired, a macrogrid allows wind- and solar-power resources to be shared across the country. "The Midwest makes wind energy," McCalley said. "But not as many people live in the Midwest. So we need to move that energy."

3. Utilities now have to build extra capacity to meet their highest demand of the year. A macrogrid can help different parts of the country meet each other's peak demand, therefore decreasing the amount of peak capacity that has to be built in any once place.

And what about storms -- such as the derecho that blew across Iowa in August 2020 or the ice storm that cut off power to Texas in February 2021? Could a macrogrid help with those kinds of disasters?

"Another benefit of the macrogrid is being able to deal with these kind of resilience problems," McCalley said. "You could get electricity assistance from other regions very simply. Iowa and other states would be interconnected with other areas."

More

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/11/211118203708.htm

Winter Watch.

This weekend more on the new winter watch section. Northern hemisphere snow and the Arctic ice cover.  Both by about mid-November give a pretty good indication of the winter to come.

The Eur-Asian snow cover this November is extensive, far more than last year which came off of an unusual Siberian summer heatwave that probably affected both the snow cover and Arctic ice. 

The Arctic sea ice extent this mid-November is slightly below normal. Taken together this more often than not suggests much of Europe is headed for a colder than normal winter, although given the Arctic sea ice extent, not a harsh winter.

U.S. and Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover

https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nh_snowcover/

Read scientific analysis on Arctic sea ice conditions.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

 

This weekend’s musical diversion. Boccherini again. Approx. 6 minutes.

Luigi Boccherini / Luciano Berio: Ritirata notturna di Madrid (1975)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rs9Rmrn2mWc

This weekend’s maths update. Approx. 8 minutes.

Fractions addition and subtraction trick - do them the fast way!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFGlgSfQ-Gk

This weekend’s interesting video.  Why Americans don’t do roundabouts. Approx. 12 minutes.

Why The U.S. Hates Roundabouts

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqcyRxZJCXc

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: when he can't afford it and when he can."

Mark Twain.

 

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