Baltic Dry Index. 2807 -37 Brent Crude 82.17
Spot Gold 1865
The least productive people are usually the ones who are most in favor of holding meetings.
Thomas Sowell.
UN climate talks drift into overtime in push to save 1.5 Celsius goal
GLASGOW, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Two weeks of U.N. COP26 climate talks in Glasgow blew past a deadline on Friday as the conference president called on countries to make a final push to secure commitments that would rein in the rising temperatures that threaten the planet.
With a deal now expected sometime on Saturday, there remained tough talking to be done on issues such as the phasing out of fossil fuel subsidies, carbon markets and financial help for poor countries to tackle climate change.
A draft of the final deal, released early on Friday, requires countries to set tougher climate pledges next year - in an attempt to bridge the gap between current targets and the much deeper cuts scientists say are needed this decade to avert catastrophic climate change.
"We have come a long way over the past two weeks and now we need that final injection of that 'can-do' spirit, which is present at this COP, so we get this shared endeavour over the line," said Britain's COP26 President Alok Sharma.
Late on Friday Sharma announced that meetings would continue into Saturday, and that he expected a deal later in the day. A revised draft of the agreement would be released Saturday morning to kick off the last round of talks, he said.
The meeting's overarching aim is to keep within reach the 2015 Paris Agreement's aspirational target to cap global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, the limit scientists say would avert its worst effects.
Under current national pledges to cut emissions this decade, researchers say the world's temperature would soar far beyond that limit, unleashing catastrophic sea level rises, droughts, storms and wildfires.
The new draft is a balancing act - trying to take in the demands of the most climate-vulnerable nations such as low-lying islands, the world's biggest polluters, and countries whose exports of fossil fuels are vital to their economies. read more
"China thinks the current draft still needs to go further to strengthen and enrich the parts about adaptation, finance, technology, and capacity building," said Zhao Yingmin, the climate negotiator for the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter.
The draft retained its most significant demand for nations to set tougher climate pledges next year, but couched that request in weaker language than before, while failing to offer the rolling annual review of climate pledges that some developing countries have sought.
Nations are currently required to revisit their pledges every five years.
WEAKER LANGUAGE
The latest proposal included slightly weaker language than a previous one in asking states to phase out subsidies of the fossil fuels - coal, oil and gas - that are the prime manmade cause of global warming.
That dismayed some campaigners, while others were relieved that the first explicit reference to fossil fuels at any U.N. climate summit was in the text at all, and hoped it would survive the fierce negotiations to come.
Out of time: Climate talks go past deadline over coal, cash
GLASGOW, Scotland (AP) — Going into overtime Friday night, negotiators at U.N. climate talks in Glasgow were still trying to find common ground on phasing out coal, when nations need to update their emission-cutting pledges and, especially, on money.
Talks are at a “bit of a stalemate,” and the United States, with support from the European Union, is holding back talks, said Lee White, the Gabonese minister for forests and climate change.
Mohamed Adow of Power Shift Africa, a long-time talks observer, said poorer nations are beyond disappointed with the way the United Kingdom presidency has come up with drafts and that this has become “a rich world” negotiation. He said poorer nations cannot accept what has been proposed.
As the talks approached midnight, rich nations had a much more optimistic view, showing the split that might occur after new drafts appear Saturday.
United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson, host of the meeting, said through a spokesperson that he believes “an ambitious outcome is in sight.”
U.S. Climate Envoy John Kerry told The Associated Press on Friday night that climate talks were “working away,” commenting after a late night meeting with his Chinese counterpart and before a hallway chat with India’s minister.
Chinese Climate Envoy Xie Zhenhua told Kerry in the hallway: “I think the current draft is more close” in a conversation that AP witnessed. When Kerry asked him if he felt better about it, Xie answered: “Yes, I feel better about it because Alok Sharma is a smart guy.”
No agreement was ready by the 6 p.m. local time scheduled end of the conference. And sometimes that helps diplomats get in a more deal-making mood.
“The negotiating culture is not to make the hard compromises until the meeting goes into extra innings, as we now have done,” said long-time climate talks observer Alden Meyer of the European think tank E3G. “But the U.K. presidency is still going to have to make a lot of people somewhat unhappy to get the comprehensive agreement we need out of Glasgow.”
More
https://apnews.com/article/climate-business-glasgow-europe-scotland-684a055b6f51876e050bea3d2fc27176
How Meghan Markle wins the White House
Welcome to Meghan’s world, where artifice, pop culture and politics march in lockstep
November 10, 2021 | 12:01 am
In October, Meghan Markle, the Duchess of Sussex, made her most significant political intervention to date. She marked her fortieth birthday by writing an open letter “as a mom” to Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer, and asked Congress to legislate for paid family leave for new parents. Markle may have thought she was pushing at an open door: the Democrats were striving to include paid family leave in the Build Back Better Act. But this may not be the only open door Meghan is pushing at.
Seasoned observers will notice the Markle trademarks in the letter. There is the folksy appeal to her humble heritage: “I grew up on the $4.99 salad bar at Sizzler… I knew how hard my parents worked to afford this because even at five bucks, eating out was something special, and I felt lucky.” There is the sound of enormous privilege being checked ever so modestly: “Like any parents, we were overjoyed. Like many parents, we were overwhelmed. Like fewer parents, we weren’t confronted with the harsh reality of either spending those first few critical months with our baby or going back to work.”
She signed the letter “The Duchess of Sussex,” even though her husband’s grandmother has asked her not to use the title for political ends. But Meghan seems not to care about offending her in-laws: the duchess has set her sights higher than mere celebrity. After an enforced hiatus due to Covid-19, a domestic interlude which Meghan and Harry filled by producing a second child and some inspirational videos, the Sussexes are back. Her foray into lobbying in October, and her and Harry’s quasi-presidential appearance at the UN General Assembly in September, may be baby steps toward the greatest show on Earth: the White House.
There is nothing absurd in the notion that a supporting player in Suits might become the biggest player of all on the world’s stage. Ronald Reagan proved the electoral potential of a B-movie background and a pleasant demeanor. So did Donald Trump, minus the pleasant demeanor. Arnold Schwarzenegger made it to the governor’s mansion, but his foreign birth blocked a run at the White House. Meanwhile, Democrats are so enthralled by the celebrity presidency of Barack Obama that they have begged for encores from George Clooney and Oprah Winfrey.
As Meghan bestrides the world like a well-coiffed Colossus, the question isn’t whether she could run. It’s whether she’s already started her run.
More
https://spectatorworld.com/topic/meghan-markle-wins-white-house/
Is your electric car as eco-friendly as you thought?
November 10, 2021
BERLIN -- Electric vehicles are a powerful weapon in the world's battle to beat global warming, yet their impact varies hugely from nation-to-nation and in some places they pollute more than gasoline models, data analysis shows.
In Europe, where sales are rising the fastest in the world, EVs in Poland and Kosovo actually generate more carbon emissions because grids are so coal-reliant, according to the data compiled by research consultancy Radiant Energy Group (REG).
Elsewhere around Europe, however, the picture is better, though the relative carbon savings depend on what supplies grids and the time of day vehicles are charged.
Best performers are nuclear and hydroelectric-powered Switzerland at 100 percent carbon savings vis-a-vis gasoline vehicles, Norway 98 percent, France 96 percent, Sweden 95 percent and Austria 93 percent, according to the study shared with Reuters.
Laggards are Cyprus at 4 percent, Serbia 15 percent, Estonia 35 percent and the Netherlands 37 percent.
An EV driver in Europe's biggest car manufacturer Germany, which relies on a mix of renewables and coal, makes a 55 percent greenhouse gas saving, the data also showed.
In countries like Germany or Spain with big investment in solar and wind, lack of renewable energy storage means the amount of carbon saved by driving an EV depends heavily on the time of day you recharge.
Charging in the afternoon - when sun and wind are more prevalent - saves 16-18 percent more carbon than at night when grids are more likely to be fueled by gas or coal.
The analysis, based on public data from Europe's transmission system operator transparency platform ENTSO-E and the European Environment Agency (EEA), came ahead of Wednesday's discussions on transport at the COP26 summit.
More
https://europe.autonews.com/environmentemissions/your-electric-car-eco-friendly-you-thought
Global automakers now target $515B on EVs, batteries
November 10, 2021 04:45 AM
Global automakers are planning to spend more than half a trillion dollars on electric vehicles and batteries through 2030, according to a Reuters analysis, boosting investments aimed at luring car buyers away from fossil-fuel vehicles and meeting increasingly tough decarbonization targets.
Less than three years ago, a similar analysis by Reuters found car companies planned to spend $300 billion on EVs and related technologies. But looming zero-carbon mandates in cities such as London and Paris and countries from Norway to China have lent additional urgency to the industry's EV-related investment commitments.
The most recent analysis shows automakers planning to spend an estimated $515 billion over the next five to 10 years to develop and build new battery-powered vehicles and shift away from combustion engines.
But industry executives and forecasters remain concerned that consumer demand for EVs could fall well short of aggressive targets without substantial additional incentives and even greater spending on charging infrastructure and grid capacity.
----Reuters compiled the investment data from company statements, investor presentations and regulatory filings.
Other surveys have come up with different spending projections. In June, consulting firm AlixPartners said auto industry investments in electric vehicles would reach $330 billion by 2025.
----Meanwhile, political and regulatory pressure is building on the world's automakers to begin phasing out production of fossil-fueled vehicles, including gasoline-electric hybrids, over the next 10-15 years, while ramping up output of full electric models.
A number of countries, from Singapore to Sweden, have said they will ban sales of new combustion engine vehicles by 2030. U.S. President Joseph Biden has said he wants 40 percent to 50 percent of sales to be EVs by 2030.
More
https://europe.autonews.com/environmentemissions/global-automakers-now-target-515b-evs-batteries
How Far Have We Really Gotten With Alternative Energy?
Nov. 11, 2021 6:52 am ET
We hear a lot about the need to move to cleaner forms of power from all sides—utilities, politicians, advocates and energy companies. There are all sorts of ideas on where we want to go, and how to get there.
But let’s step back and ask a more fundamental question: Where exactly do we stand on alternative energy now?
There’s definitely big movement under way. Electricity generation from coal, oil and natural gas represented 60% of all power generated world-wide this year, down from 67% in 2010, according to data and consulting firm IHS Markit. That is likely to drop to 42% to 48% by 2030, depending on how aggressively countries move towards renewables.
Those are just projections, of course. Each of the alternative fuels has its own potential, and its own obstacles. Here’s a closer look at the current status and outlook for five types of carbon-free energy that could play a bigger role in the future.
SOLAR
Harnessing the power of the sun to generate electricity has a long record. While the basic technology hasn’t changed much in recent years, its costs have come way down, triggering a global boom in new solar installations.
The photovoltaic cells used in solar panels convert sunlight directly into electricity. Government mandates for more renewable energy, incentives such as tax credits and corporate commitments to purchase renewables have helped drive the global market. Lower costs have boosted utility-scale projects and interest from consumers in rooftop installations.
The technology is in a “rapid takeoff phase,” says Xizhou Zhou, vice president and managing director of global power and renewables at IHS Markit.
There is plenty of room for growth. The Energy Department says the U.S. now gets just 3% of its power from solar sources. Globally, just 4% percent of power generation this year is from solar, up from 1.4% five years ago, according to IHS Markit. Global installations will likely increase 20% this year to 175 gigawatts, according to IHS Markit. That’s about enough to power roughly 35 million U.S. households for a year.
The solar industry is beset by the same supply-chain and inflation challenges bedeviling much of the business world, though. Prices of materials such as steel, glass and aluminum have soared, and there is a global shortage of semiconductors, a key component for converting sunlight to electricity.
Labor shortages and supply-chain issues could last two years, says George Bilicic, vice chairman of investment banking and global head of power, energy and infrastructure at investment bank Lazard. “But the long-term trend here is powerful and dramatic,” he says.
More. So much more.
If you had to identify, in one word, the reason why the human race has not achieved, and never will achieve, its full potential, that word would be 'meetings.'
Dave Barry.
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.
Milton Friedman.
Asia prices improve on higher demand; eyes on Russia
November 12, 2021 11:36 AM
LONDON (Reuters) - Asia liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices rose this week following three weeks of decline as demand increased in China after a sharp drop in temperature, while market players eyed Russian supply into Europe.
The average LNG price for December delivery into Northeast Asia rose to $31.5 per metric million British thermal units (mmBtu), up $2, or about 6.8% from the previous week, industry sources said.
Sustained below normal temperatures could deplete inventories rapidly and send buyers back to the spot market, where prices need to remain elevated to hold the arbitrage against the TTF, Emily McClain, senior gas markets analyst at Rystad Energy, said in a report.
“While the market appears to be heaving a sigh of relief, the healthier supply-side picture is balanced by the onset of colder weather in North Asia and Europe and mounting vessel congestion at the Panama Canal, and we are certainly not out of hot water yet,” she said.
Market players are eying transit capacity auctions on Monday that could indicate Russian supply to Europe for the next months. Low gas flows from Russia and concerns over a political row with Belarus stoked fears of tight supplies this winter and sent gas prices higher on Friday.
More
EXPLAINER: Why US inflation is so high, and when it may ease
WASHINGTON (AP) — Inflation is starting to look like that unexpected — and unwanted — houseguest who just won’t leave.
For months, many economists had sounded a reassuring message that a spike in consumer prices, something that had been missing in action in the U.S. for a generation, wouldn’t stay long. It would prove “transitory,” in the soothing words of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and White House officials, as the economy shifted from virus-related chaos to something closer to normalcy.
Yet as any American who has bought a carton of milk, a gallon of gas or a used car could tell you, inflation has settled in. And economists are now voicing a more discouraging message: Higher prices will likely last well into next year, if not beyond.
On Wednesday, the government said its consumer price index soared 6.2% from a year ago — the biggest 12-month jump since 1990.
“It’s a large blow against the transitory narrative,” said Jason Furman, who served as the top economic adviser in the Obama administration. “Inflation is not slowing. It’s maintaining a red-hot pace.’’
And the sticker shock is hitting where families tend to feel it most. At the breakfast table, for instance: Bacon prices are up 20% over the past year, egg prices nearly 12%. Gasoline has surged 50%. Buying a washing machine or a dryer will set you back 15% more than it would have a year ago. Used cars? 26% more.
Although pay is up sharply for many workers, it isn’t nearly enough to keep up with prices. Last month, average hourly wages in the United States, after accounting for inflation, actually fell 1.2% compared with October 2020.
Economists at Wells Fargo joke grimly that the Labor Department’s CPI — the Consumer Price Index — should stand for “Consumer Pain Index.” Unfortunately for consumers, especially lower-wage households, it’s all coinciding with their higher spending needs right before the holiday season.
The price squeeze is escalating pressure on the Fed to shift more quickly away from years of easy-money policies. And it poses a threat to President Joe Biden, congressional Democrats and their ambitious spending plans.
More
https://apnews.com/article/why-is-us-inflation-so-high-77dc786442ccc3ed8092a7647716d682
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible anyway, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
This weekend, when Facebook’s paid hacks, masquerading as scientists tried to censor Dr. Campbell and walked into a chainsaw instead. Enjoy. Approx. 25 minutes.
Alternative facts
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ObTAOvgd_JE
Dr. Campbell debunking fake news on the far-left BBC. Approx. 27 minutes.
Debunking the BBC debunk of ivermectin
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zy7c_FHiEac&t=4s
Next, some very useful vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some more useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Observe any meetings of people, and you will always find their eagerness and impetuosity rise or fall in proportion to their numbers.
Lord Chesterfield.
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Fortescue aims to launch world's first ammonia-powered ship in 2022
Loz Blain November 11, 2021
Australian mining billionaire Andrew Forrest has announced he's challenged his team to get the world's first ammonia-powered ship into service by 2022, following their rapid success with hydrogen mining trucks and ammonia-powered locomotives.
In doing so, Forrest is hoping to beat a number of other ammonia shipping projects to the punch. Finland's Wartsila, for example – which famously makes some of the biggest combustion engines in the world – is working with a Norwegian company to retrofit a ship with a combustion engine that'll run on 70 percent ammonia. That's slated to be finished in 2023, after which the company plans to ramp up the ammonia percentage.
Greece's Avin International has commissioned an "ammonia-ready" 900-ft (274-m) tanker, although it'll initially launch running on fossil fuels, as presumably will a series of "ammonia-ready" car carriers that China Merchants Heavy Industries (Jiangsu) is delivering to Renaissance Shipping in 2024.
On the electric rather than combustion side, Norway's Eidesvik is working with a Fraunhofer team on the Viking Energy, a supply vessel that'll use ammonia to fuel an electric drive system through a fission reactor, a fuel cell and a catalytic converter. This too is expected to launch in 2023.
So the race is open, and Forrest is in with a shot. His clean-tech business, Fortescue Future Industries (FFI, a subsidiary of his mining company, Fortescue Metals Group, FMG) is working on a dizzying array of projects related to green hydrogen – both as part of FMG's efforts to decarbonize its own mining operations, and to get as many fingers as possible into the emerging hydrogen pie.
In August, Forrest announced it had taken the FFI team about four months to convert one of FMG's huge mining haul trucks to run on a hydrogen fuel cell – a pilot that the company will begin rolling out across its fleet after 2025. Earlier in the year, the team successfully used blended ammonia as a combustion fuel in a locomotive engine, another project it's pursuing hard.
FFI recently announced a partnership with Universal Hydrogen to supply clean fuel to aviation projects until 2035, and it's set to begin construction on a manufacturing facility for electrolyzers that will more than double the entire current global manufacturing capacity. It's working on green hydrogen production facilities in Jordan, India, Brazil, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Afghanistan and Australia, among others, and has signed a deal to be Britain's largest green hydrogen supplier.
More
https://newatlas.com/marine/fortescue-worlds-first-ammonia-ship/
People who enjoy meetings should not be in charge of anything.
Thomas Sowell.
Winter Watch.
This weekend more on the new winter watch section. Northern hemisphere snow and the Arctic ice cover. Both by about mid-November give a pretty good indication of the winter to come.
U.S. and Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover
https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nh_snowcover/
Read scientific analysis on Arctic sea ice conditions.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
This weekend’s musical diversion. Staying with pianos again this weekend, cellist Boccherini composed one of the best piano concertos. Well, switched over from harpsicord. Almost never heard nowadays. Approx. 15 minutes.
Luigi Boccherini - Piano Concerto in E-flat major, G.487 (c.1768)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6ZQMSAuWoU
This weekend’s maths update. Approx. 4 minutes.
The Most Beautiful Equation in Math
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUTGFQpKaPU
No chess update this weekend. This weekend, it’s time to check up on Iceland’s volcanoes. Was this earthquake a harbinger of something more to come? Plus a little Icelandic humour. Well, very little humour. Approx. 7 minutes.
Large Earthquake Close By Hekla Volcano in Iceland
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNO4zl7Gna8
When the outcome of a meeting is to have another meeting, it has been a lousy meeting.
Herbert Hoover.
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