Baltic Dry Index. 2654 -61 Brent Crude 82.35
Spot Gold 1792
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 25/11/21 World 259,731,904
Deaths 5,192,249
Some
hae meat and canna eat,
and some wad eat that want it,
but we hae meat and we can eat,
and sae the Lord be thankit.
Robert Burns. The Selkirk Grace.
A happy Thanksgiving to all celebrating today. We in the G-7 and G-20, still have so much to be thankful for.
With the USA markets closed for the Thanksgiving Day holiday, the rest of the world’s stock casinos paused or slipped lower, pondering what yesterday’s release of the Fed’s minutes of their early November meeting might mean for interest rates next year, and their announced timetable of their bond purchase taper.
Elsewhere, oil traders continued to discount President Biden’s release from strategic reserves. Brent crude, after falling from 82 dollars to about 78 dollars a barrel on the proposal, rebounded back to 82 dollars when the details were announced.
In the US gold futures casino, after falling from about 1845 down to about 1760, in a bear raid in a thinly traded holiday week, profit takers and opportunistic bottom fisher’s pushed the spot rice back up to the 1790s. Fun and games for the brave, in a holiday week.
Asian shares inch lower as dollar marches on
November 25, 2021 2:24 AM GMT
HONG KONG, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Asian shares wobbled lower on Thursday, hurt by the U.S. dollar which continued to march higher as investors bet on interest rates rising more quickly in the United States than in other major economies such as Japan and the euro zone.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) fell 0.18% to a six-week low, having posted a small decline in each of the past six trading sessions. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) rose 0.8%.
There were mild declines across the board. Australia (.AXJO) shed 0.1%, Hong Kong (.HSI) lost 0.35%, and Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) shed 0.3%.
Notably in Hong Kong, shares of Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd's (1638.HK) rose as much as 24% on their return to trading, after the embattled Chinese developer said it was offering bondholders an option to exchange existing bonds with new bonds having an extended maturity, to improve financial stability. read more
In broad terms, "when it comes to regional equities allocation, we're watching the U.S. dollar which is making new highs and that is a headwind for emerging market equities," said Fook-Hien Yap, senior investment strategist at Standard Chartered Bank wealth management.
The dollar is trading near its highest in almost five years versus the Japanese currency at 115.3 yen, and nearly 18 months to the euro which was at $1.1206.
Supporting the greenback, several U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers said they would be open to speeding up the tapering of the central bank's bond-buying programme if the high rate of inflation held, and move more quickly to raise interest rates, minutes of the Fed's Nov. 2-3 policy meeting showed. read more
----U.S. Treasuries will not trade on Thursday because of the Thanksgiving holiday. U.S. stock markets will also be closed and will have a shortened session on Friday.
Overnight, Wall Street ended higher and is back testing record highs as tech stocks bounced back from a selloff earlier this week.
In other central bank news, the Bank of Korea raised its policy interest rate (KROCRT=ECI) by 25 basis points on Thursday, as widely expected, as concern about rising household debt and inflation offset uncertainty around a resurgence in COVID-19 cases.
Oil prices rose slightly after a turbulent few days in which the United States said it would release millions of barrels of oil from strategic reserves in coordination with China, India, South Korea, Japan and Britain to try to cool oil prices after calls to OPEC+ to pump more went unheeded. However, investors questioned the programme's effectiveness, leading to price gains.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-wrapup-1-2021-11-25/
Gold ticks higher as dollar eases but hawkish Fed mutes gains
November 25, 2021 5:20 AM GMT
Nov 25 (Reuters) - Gold prices edged up on Thursday as the dollar eased, but hawkish comments by U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers dented the metal's appeal and kept it well below the key $1,800 mark.
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $1,791.76 per ounce by 0501 GMT, after slipping to its lowest since Nov. 4 on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures added 0.4% to $1,791.60.
The dollar index edged 0.1% lower off a 16-month high hit in the previous session, reducing the metal's cost to buyers holding other currencies.
Gold has slumped 4.5% from last week's five-month high, with a growing number of Fed policymakers indicating they were open to accelerating stimulus tapering and raising interest rates quicker if high inflation held, minutes of the U.S. central bank's last policy meeting showed. read more
"As markets price in some monetary policy normalization, that should weigh on gold in the short-term. But major central banks are unlikely to aggressively hike rates given the fiscal burden of higher interest rates and large government debt accumulated" said Hitesh Jain, lead analyst at Mumbai-based Yes Securities.
This more moderate monetary policy normalisation and the potential loss of momentum in economic growth next year as the base-effects of the pandemic wear-off, should support gold in the longer-term, Jain added.
More
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
As U.S. inflation hits 31-year high, banks assess risks and opportunities
Matt Scuffham November 23, 2021 9:13 AM EST
NEW YORK, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Wall Street banks are planning for a sustained period of higher inflation, running internal health checks, monitoring whether clients in exposed sectors could pay back loans, devising hedging strategies and counseling caution when it comes to deals.
U.S. consumer prices this month posted their biggest annual gain in 31 years, driven by surges in the cost of gasoline and other goods. read more
Senior bank executives have become less convinced by central bankers' arguments that the spike is a temporary blip caused by supply chain disruption and are stepping up risk management.
Higher inflation is generally seen as a positive for banks, raising net interest income and boosting profitability. But if it jumps high too quickly, inflation could become a headwind, top bankers warn.
Goldman Sachs Chief Operating Officer John Waldron last month identified inflation as the No. 1 risk that could derail the global economy and stock markets.
JPMorgan Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon told analysts last month that banks "should be worried" that high inflation and high interest rates increase the risk of extreme price movements.
A sustained period of higher inflation would pose both credit and market risk to banks, and they are assessing that risk in internal stress tests, said one senior banker at a European bank with large U.S. operations.
Risk teams are also monitoring credit exposures in sectors most affected by inflation, another banker said. They include firms in the consumer discretionary, industrial and manufacturing sectors.
----Clients that may need extra funding to get them through a period of higher inflation are being advised to raise capital while interest rates remain relatively low, the banker said.
"It's still a very beneficial environment to be in if you need funding, but that won't last forever."
Investment bankers are also assessing whether higher inflation and monetary tightening could disrupt record deals and public offering pipelines.
"We expect a sustained period of higher inflation, and monetary tightening could slow the momentum in the M&A market," said Paul Colone, U.S.-based managing partner at Alantra, a global mid-market investment bank.
----Sales and trading teams, meanwhile, are taking more calls from clients looking to reposition portfolios, which are vulnerable to a loss in value. When inflation ran out of control in the 1970s, U.S. stock indices were hit hard.
"We're seeing more interest from clients in finding some manner of inflation protection," said Chris McReynolds, Barclays' head of U.S. inflation trading.
Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, which are issued and backed by the U.S. government, are proving popular, he said. The securities are similar to Treasury bonds but come with protection against inflation.
Traders are also seeing demand for derivatives that offer inflation protection such as zero-coupon inflation swaps, in which a fixed rate payment on an investment is exchanged for a payment at the rate of inflation.
More
Americans are spending but inflation casts pall over economy
WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans are doing the main thing that drives the U.S. economy — spending — but accelerating inflation is casting a pall.
A raft of economic data issued Wednesday showed the economy on solid footing, with Americans’ incomes rising and jobless claims falling to a level not seen since the Beatles were still together.
The spike in prices for everything from gas to rent, however, will likely be the chief economic indicator Americans discuss over Thanksgiving Day dinner.
The Commerce Department reported that U.S. consumer spending rebounded by 1.3% in October. That was despite inflation that over the past year has accelerated faster than it has at any point in more than three decades.
The jump in consumer spending last month was double the 0.6% gain in September.
At the same time, consumer prices rose 5% compared with the same period last year, the fastest 12-month gain since the same stretch ending in November 1990.
“Although consumer confidence has declined in the fall because of high inflation, households continue to spend,” said Gus Faucher chief economist at PNC Financial.
Personal incomes, which provide the fuel for future spending increases, rose 0.5% in October after having fallen 1% in September, which reflected a drop in government support payments.
Pay for Americans has been on the rise with companies desperate for workers, and government stimulus checks earlier this year further padded their bank accounts. That bodes well for a strong holiday season and major U.S. retailers say they’re ready after some companies, like Walmart and Target, went to extreme lengths to make sure that their shelves are full despite widespread shortages.
----In a cautionary note Wednesday the University of Michigan reported that its consumer sentiment index fell 4.3 percentage points to a reading of 67.4 this month, its lowest level since November 2011, weighed down by inflation concerns.
And there are regions in the U.S. experiencing a surge in COVID-19 cases that could get worse as families travel the country for the Thanksgiving holiday.
More
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
AstraZeneca vaccine may give longer protection that is shielding UK from new Covid wave
Sarah Knapton, Ben Riley-Smith 23 November, 2021
AstraZeneca may offer longer-lasting immunity than other vaccines, scientists have said amid claims that the jab has helped Britain avoid the latest Covid wave in Europe.
Pascal Soriot, the chief executive of AstraZeneca, said the decision to give the Oxford vaccine to older people in Britain could be one of the reasons the UK was not seeing not "so many hospitalisations relative to Europe" despite a high number of cases.
The Telegraph understands that the pharmaceutical company is preparing to release data showing that its jab offers long term T-cell immunity for older people even after antibodies wane. Mr Soriot said the immunity provided by T-cells may be "more durable".
Several countries – including France, Germany, Spain and Belgium – restricted the AstraZeneca vaccine to under-65s in the early stages of their rollouts, claiming there was not enough data to prove it worked for older people.
In France, daily infections passed 30,000 for the first time since August on Tuesday, with an increase of 63 per cent in a week. Germany confirmed it was planning to make vaccination mandatory for soldiers. The seven-day average of Covid deaths in the country is now twice that in Britain.
"European leaders had all these unfounded concerns about AstraZeneca and its use in older people," a senior government source said. "If you look at the data, you can see us using it early has been incredibly helpful in terms of protecting older and vulnerable people from this disease for longer."
British experts said Mr Soriot's claims were "plausible" and may be the reason why hospitalisations and deaths have been relatively low even though cases are high.
Dr Peter English, a former editor of Vaccines in Practice who previously chaired the BMA public health medicine committee, said: "People whose immune systems have produced a strong T-cell response but a weaker antibody response might be more likely to be infected in the first place but more likely to be able to fight the infection, and they will be much less likely to develop severe disease."
Commenting on the UK's high infection but low hospitalisation rates, he said: "It is plausible that this generated an excellent T-cell response, which means that while people can still be infected and infectious, they are unlikely to be seriously unwell."
Prof Matthew Snape, of Oxford University, who was chief investigator on booster jabs trials, said: "The best T-cell responses seem to come if you give a first dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine followed by Pfizer."
----Mr Soriot told BBC Radio 4's Today programme the ability of the AstraZeneca jab to stimulate a long-lasting T-cell response in older people "could be" the reason Britain was faring better than Europe.
"We haven't seen many hospitalisations in the UK – a lot of infections for sure – but what matters is are you severely ill or not, are you hospitalised or not?" he said. "And we haven't seen so many of these hospitalisations in the UK.
"The antibody response is what drives the immediate reaction or defence of the body when you're attacked by the virus, and the T-cell response takes a little longer to come in, but it's actually more durable – it lasts longer and the body remembers that longer."
Although Covid cases in Britain are rising again, with 42,484 recorded on Tuesday, deaths are down 5.5 per cent and hospitalisations by 9.5 per cent since last week.
More
South Korea sets pandemic high with 4,000 new virus cases
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — New coronavirus infections in South Korea exceeded 4,000 in a day for the first time since the start of the pandemic as a delta-driven spread continues to rattle the country after it eased social distancing in recent weeks to improve its economy.
The Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency said most of the new 4,116 cases reported Wednesday came from the capital Seoul and its surrounding metropolitan region, where an increase in hospitalizations has created fears about possible shortages in intensive care units.
The country’s death toll is now 3,363 after 35 virus patients died in the past 24 hours. The 586 patients who are in serious or critical conditions also marked a new high.
South Korea is the latest country to see infections and hospitalizations rise after loosening social distancing measures amid high vaccination rates. Cases are also climbing in the United States ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, while Austria entered a major lockdown on Monday as a virus wave spreads across Europe.
Officials in South Korea eased social distancing rules starting this month and fully reopened schools on Monday in what they describe as first steps toward restoring some pre-pandemic normalcy. In allowing larger social gatherings and longer indoor dining hours at restaurants, officials had hoped that improving vaccination rates would keep hospitalizations and deaths down even if the virus continues to spread.
But health workers are now wrestling with a rise in serious cases and fatalities among older people who rejected vaccines or whose immunities have waned after getting injected early in the vaccine rollout that began in February.
“The rise in serious cases has been considerably higher than what we had expected,” Health Ministry official Son Youngrae said in a briefing. Son said officials are closely monitoring the situation and may announce steps to re-impose stronger social distancing measures in coming weeks if the spread continues to worsen.
More
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
KSTAR fusion reactor sets record with 30-second plasma confinement
Nick Lavars November 23, 2021
Scientists are exploring nuclear fusion technology through various experimental devices, and a popular design for this pursuit of clean, practically inexhaustible energy is known as the tokamak. An exciting example of these donut-shaped reactors can be found at the Korea Institute of Fusion Energy, where scientists have reportedly set a new record by maintaining super-hot plasma for 30 seconds.
The idea behind fusion power is to recreate the processes that take place inside the Sun. Huge gravitational forces combine with intense heat and pressure to produce a plasma, in which nuclei smash into each other at high velocity to form helium and release energy.
Tokamaks are designed to recreate this process here on Earth with a series of coils placed around a torus-shaped reactor, magnetically confining plasma heated to millions of degrees for long enough for the fusion of nuclei to occur. Many of these experimental devices are in operation around the world, and the Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research (KSTAR) reactor is one making some promising strides.
Construction was completed on the device in 2007 and it then generated its first plasma in 2008. In 2016, KSTAR claimed a world record by maintaining plasma heated to 50 million °C (90 million °F) for 70 seconds, which was outdone by China's Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) with a 102-second effort in 2017.
The goal for devices such as these, however, is to heat the plasma to more than 100 million °C (180 million °F), and in 2018 KSTAR did just that, albeit for 1.5 seconds. It upped the ante with an eight-second effort at the same temperature in 2019, and then last December set a world record by maintaining plasma at 100 million °C for 20 seconds.
Now, as reported by Business Korea, scientists working on the KSTAR device have taken another significant step forward, extending that timeframe to a world-record 30 seconds. This performance boost is said to be the result of further optimized magnetic field conditions and heating systems. The magazine reports that the team is is aiming to sustain the plasma for 300 seconds in 2026 through upgrades to the power source and through a tungsten diverter that will prevent a rise in temperature in the inner walls of the chamber.
Source: National Research Council of Science & Technology via Business Korea
“The
stock market is 50% gambling. Futures and options markets (derivatives) are 90%
gambling.”
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