Baltic Dry Index. 2552 +98 Brent Crude 78.69
Spot Gold 1848
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 22/11/21 World 257,832,881
Deaths 5,168,069
Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the Capitalistic System was to debauch the currency. . . Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million can diagnose.
John Maynard Keynes.
We open as usual with Asian stock casinos cautiously mixed. With the USA off to celebrate Thanksgiving on Thursday, this week in US markets is often thinly traded.
In thinly traded markets much fun is there to be had by the brave.
Below, a summary of this morning’s Asian inaction.
Below that, yet another inflation warning of trouble ahead, not that anyone is paying any attention.
Asia-Pacific stocks mixed; JD.com, Netease shares in Hong Kong jump on index inclusion
SINGAPORE — Shares in Asia-Pacific were mixed in Monday trade as China kept its benchmark lending rate unchanged.
The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong dipped 0.42%. Hong Kong-listed shares of JD.com and Netease gained 1.87% and 3.02%, respectively, following a Friday announcement that the two stocks are set to be included in the benchmark Hang Seng index from Dec. 6.
In mainland China, the Shanghai composite rose 0.65% while the Shenzhen component advanced 1.161%.
China on Monday kept the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged at 3.85%. The five-year LPR was also left steady at 4.65%.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 fell 0.2% while the Topix index declined 0.25%.
Over in South Korea, the Kospi gained 1.21% as shares of industry heavyweight Samsung Electronics soared about 5%. The Straits Times index in Singapore also rose 0.28%.
Australian stocks declined as the S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.39%.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan traded little changed.
The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its peers, was at 96.184 following a recent bounce from around 95.6.
The Japanese yen traded at 114.17 per dollar, stronger than levels above 114.5 seen against the greenback last week. The Australian dollar changed hands at 0.7239 after dropping from above $0.735 last week.
Oil prices were lower in the morning of Asia trading hours, with international benchmark Brent crude futures down 0.2% to $78.73 per barrel. U.S. crude futures slipped 0.13% to $75.84 per barrel.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/22/asia-markets-china-benchmark-lending-rate-currencies-oil.html
Market is ‘one more bad inflation report’ away from a correction, Wharton’s Jeremy Siegel warns
Long-term market bull Jeremy Siegel expects a serious pullback that it isn’t tied to the Covid-19 surge risks.
His tipping point: a drastic change in Federal Reserve policy in order to deal with hot inflation.
“If the Fed suddenly gets tougher, I’m not sure that the market is going to be ready for a U-turn that [chair] Jerome Powell may take if we have one more bad inflation report,” the Wharton finance professor told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Friday. “A correction will come.”
The consumer price index surged 6.2% in October, the Labor Department reported earlier this month. It marked the biggest gain in more than 30 years.
Siegel criticizes the Fed for being far behind the curve in terms of taking anti-inflationary action.
“Generally, since the Fed has not made any aggressive move at all, the money is still flowing into the market,” Siegel said. “The Fed is still doing quantitative easing.”
He speculates the moment of truth will happen at the Fed’s Dec. 14 to Dec. 15 policy meeting.
If it signals a more aggressive approach to contain rising prices, Siegel warns a correction could strike.
Despite his concern, Siegel is in stocks.
“I am still pretty fully invested because, you know, there is no alternative,” he said. “Bonds are getting, in my opinion, worse and worse. Cash is disappearing at the rate of inflation which is over 6%, and I think is going higher.”
Siegel anticipates rising prices will stretch out over several years, with cumulative inflation reaching 20% to 25%.
“Even with a little bit of bumpiness in stocks, you have to be wanting to hold real assets in this scenario. And, stocks are real assets,” he noted. “All that which in the long run is going to maintain value.”
But it depends on the company.
He notes the inflation backdrop would create headwinds for tech high-flyers in the Nasdaq, which is at record highs and crossed 16,000 for the first time ever on Friday.
“If interest rates go up, the very high-priced stocks which discounts cash flows way into the future... [are] going to be affected because of the discounting mechanism,” he added.
More
In surprising news, by one measure, China has already overtaken the USA. I have my doubts due to China’s overpriced real estate sector.
With China Evergrande and others defaulting, a realistic repricing of China’s real estate sector could easily see the USA pass China again.
If the Fed doesn’t get control of US inflation before all the newly created trillions of new cash starts pouring into the US economy next year, runaway US inflation might also return the USA past China albeit for all the wrong reasons.
Report: China is now the world's richest country
Carl Samson Fri, November 19, 2021, 5:01 PM
China has beat the U.S. to become the world’s richest nation, according to a new report.
Key findings: Global net worth soared from $156 million in 2000 to $514 trillion in 2020, making the world wealthier than it was at any point in history. China accounted for nearly a third of the increase, the report from management consultancy firm McKinsey & Company stated.
· McKinsey analyzed the national balance sheets of 10 countries that represented 60% of the world’s income. Of these nations, China accounted for 50% of the growth in net worth, followed by the U.S. (22%) and Japan (11%).
· The report found that China’s wealth rose from $7 trillion in 2000 to $120 trillion in 2020. The U.S., on the other hand, saw its wealth more than double to $90 trillion in the same period.
The big picture: While the world is wealthier today, inequality still persists. In both China and the U.S. alone, more than 67% of wealth is controlled by the richest 10% of households ― and they continue to make more.
The report found that 68% of the world’s net worth lies in real estate. The remainder can be found in infrastructure, inventories, machinery and equipment and “intangibles” such as intellectual property and patents, according to Bloomberg.
More
https://www.yahoo.com/news/report-china-now-worlds-richest-170102566.html
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Steel prices could trend ‘much higher’ compared to the last 10 years, major Indian steelmaker says
Steel prices could be “much higher” in the coming years compared with recent levels, the CEO of a major Indian steelmaker told CNBC last week.
In the last seven or eight years, the average price for hot-rolled coil steel was around $400 or $450 per metric ton, Tata Steel Chief Executive T.V. Narendran said on “Street Signs Asia” on Friday.
The long-term average over the coming years is likely to be more than $600, he predicted. Prices were $750 in China and $850 in Southeast Asia on Friday, he said.
“I expect it to be in that space and that range — fluctuating of course, but fluctuating at a higher level than we’ve seen in the past,” he said.
Narendran explained the steel market is going through several changes, including rising costs and China’s evolving role in the market.
“The last 10 years have been dominated by exports out of China. Now, there’s far more stability in world steel trade,” he said.
At its peak, China exported more steel than India produced, Narendran said. China’s steel exports have since halved to around 60 million tons a year, and could fall further as the country pursues its net-zero carbon emissions goals, he added.
And for “the first time in many years,” steel demand is not being driven by China, said Narendran. He noted the World Steel Association expects growth in steel consumption this year will come from countries other than China.
“With the Western world investing [in] infrastructure, that’s positive for demand as well,” he added.
Last week, U.S. President Joe Biden signed a more than $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill into law.
On the supply side, input costs are at “historic, high levels” because of coal prices. Iron ore prices, however, have weakened and should trade within the $100 to $120 a ton range in the long term, he said. Both coal and iron ore are raw materials used in steel production.
Steel prices may also be pushed up by the increasing carbon cost in Europe, he said.
“I expect to see steel prices at a much higher level than we’ve seen in the last 10 years, over the next 10 years,” Narendran said.
Americans Load Up on Firewood as Home-Heating Costs Skyrocket
November 20, 2021
(Bloomberg) -- Amid the inflation surge that’s rippled through the U.S. economy and touched thousands upon thousands of products, one of the more obscure items on the list is firewood.
It’s a fuel from earlier times, so niche an industry that no one appears to even try to track pricing on a national level.
Talk to firewood vendors in state after state, though, and they’ll all tell you the same thing: Sales are booming on the eve of winter, and prices are soaring.
At Firewood by Jerry in New River, Arizona, a cord of seasoned firewood -- roughly 700 pieces or so -- goes for $200 today. That’s up 33% from a year ago. At Zia Firewood in Albuquerque, the price is up 11% since the summer to $250. And at Standing Rock Farms in Stone Ridge, a bucolic, little town in the Hudson Valley that’s become popular with the Manhattan set, the best hardwoods now fetch $475 a cord, up 19% from last year.
“It’s crazy,” says Randy Hornbeck, the owner of Standing Rock Farms. His sales this year are already 27% higher than his total for all of last season. “Everybody wants firewood.”
----Some of this is a work-from-home thing. White-collar workers cooped up in their suburban homes or country escapes are re-discovering the joys of an evening by the fire. This is the typical Hornbeck client. But there’s a grimmer economic force driving the surge in demand, too: Soaring prices for heating oil, natural gas and propane -- key parts of the broader inflation surge -- are pushing many Americans to try heating their homes at least partially with firewood.
At Central Arkansas Fireplaces in Conway, a suburb of Little Rock, the flood of orders for woodstoves has been so overwhelming that units purchased today won’t be delivered in time for this heating season. “You can’t get a stove until at least April,” says Lakin Frederick, an employee at the store.
----Just over 1% households will use firewood or wood pellets as their primary heating source in the U.S. this winter, the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates. That may not seem like a lot, but it equates to some 1.7 million households. What’s more, another 8% of the population will use wood as a secondary heating source, according to the EIA.
More
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/americans-load-up-on-firewood-as-home-heating-costs-skyrocket-1.1684800
Used Car Prices Explode To New Record High
Saturday, Nov 20, 2021 - 08:45 AM
After last week's hot CPI print, the great inflation debate continues to dominate headlines. The Biden administration and Federal Reserve members have been insisting inflation is transitory. But new, used car data shows prices continue to soar, suggesting inflation is anything but transitory.
Anyone shopping for a used car since the virus pandemic began has been hit with extraordinarily high prices as snarled supply chains and chip shortages crimp new car output, pushing consumers onto secondary markets.
The Manheim Index, the most recognized wholesale used-vehicle price index by financial and economic analysts, shows that used car prices rose 4.9% in the first 15 days of November compared to October. The overall index has jumped 44.9% from November 2020.
----Ford's CFO John Lawler warned earlier this month that supply constraints could continue into 2022 and said, "we'll be dealing with [supply chain issues] for a while." This means used car prices might rise even further through year-end.
Consumers will have to get used to paying a very high sticker price for a used car. Shown below is the average used car price surges as the available supply sinks.
----According to WaPo, "Rental-car companies for the first time have become major buyers of used cars at auction, instead of big sellers. That's because they can't get enough new vehicles and are desperate to fill their fleets, industry executives say."
And it's not just rental-car companies buying used cars. Dealers have been soaking up supplies to keep their parking lots full.
As used car costs resume their vertical move higher, this suggests the used car component of CPI has more room to rise in November...
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/used-car-prices-continue-historic-vertical-ascent-new-record-high
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Could coronavirus stay on surfaces and infect you? New study
Published: NOVEMBER 19, 2021 07:42 Updated: NOVEMBER 20, 2021 11:53
One of the biggest concerns in March 2020, when lockdowns started and we still knew absolutely nothing, was that the virus would remain on surfaces for hours and even days . It was later discovered that this was true, but these are rare cases and most of the time the virus is transmitted by droplets.
But a new study from the University of Michigan finds that the virus is found on surfaces like night stands, emergency buttons and TV remotes in the rooms of patients who need daily care in nursing homes.
Published in the Journal of the American Society of Geriatrics, the study found that 90% of people with corona who live in nursing homes had virus particles on at least one surface. In some cases, scientists even found particles of the virus days after the patient left the hospital.
Although the vast majority of corona infections occur due to airborne transmission, these findings suggest that surfaces can also be contagious, especially in places like nursing homes.
In total, the team collected 2,000 samples from 104 rooms in which corona patients stayed, and from adjacent rooms. They found that 28% of the samples contained traces of RNA from the virus. The researchers analyzed a total of four nursing homes in Michigan between October 2020 and January 2021.
The authors didn’t test the RNA samples they collected to see if these were “strong enough” to actually infect another person. Still, they conclude that this study can significantly help identify surfaces that health care workers must routinely clean and disinfect.
"These data show that the virus is everywhere, and even remains in the rooms of nursing home residents with COVID-19, which emphasizes the crucial importance of thorough cleaning," said author Dr. Luna Moody, who leads infection prevention research at nursing homes in the department of internal medicine at the University of Michigan's academic medical center called Michigan Medicine.
More
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Rivian's electric van for Amazon raises battery power doubts - The Information
November 19, 2021 7:12 PM GMT
Nov 19 (Reuters) - Rivian Automotive Inc's (RIVN.O) electric vans for e-commerce retailer Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) may have a more limited range than what was previously disclosed, The Information reported on Friday, citing a driver testing the vehicle.
The driver told The Information that the battery drained about 40% faster than normal if the van's heating or cooling was on.
Amazon, which disclosed a 20% stake in Rivian at the end of October, in 2019 ordered 100,000 of its electric delivery vans as part of the e-commerce giant's effort to cut its carbon footprint.
Rivian had disclosed the vans would have a range of between 120 miles and 150 miles depending on their size. But that range is much lower depending on the weather, the report said.
According to the report, Ross Rachey, Amazon's director of Global Fleets and Products, said air conditioning and heating could drain the battery in the vehicles being tested, and these vans did not have the insulation the final vehicles manufactured by Rivian will have.
The prototype van used had as many as 12 cameras inside and outside the van, but Amazon plans to add another four once the vehicles hit the road, the report said, citing Rachey.
Amazon and Rivian did not immediately respond to Reuters' requests for comment.
More
Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the Capitalist System was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security, but at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth.
John Maynard Keynes.
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