Baltic Dry Index. 2844 -17 Brent Crude 82.26
Spot Gold 1857
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 12/11/21 World 252,651,791
Deaths 5,095,453
“In reading The History of Nations, we find
that, like individuals, they have their whims and their peculiarities, their
seasons of excitement and recklessness, when they care not what they do. We
find that whole communities suddenly fix their minds upon one object and go mad
in its pursuit; that millions of people become simultaneously impressed with
one delusion, and run after it, till their attention is caught by some new
folly more captivating than the first.”
Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
It is the last official day of the Madness of Crowds in Glasgow, Scotland, although the far left Anti-British Broadcasting Corporation is suggesting that poor Glasgow may have to put up with the eco-wierdos for another day. How dare they!
So far, they/we
have managed to save the forests, defeat methane, not quite abolish hydrocarbons
and force everyone to abandon cars for bikes Electric Vehicles.
We’re all supposed to give up eating meat too, although I’m not sure that’s yet official policy.
Later today or perhaps tomorrow, we will get the official word on just what the great and the good, the not so great and the not so good, and the downright loony, accomplished at their coven in Glasgow. Then everyone can go back to business as usual.
Next, inflation at a 30 year high? Buy more stocks, is the cry from Wall Street. I have my doubts.
China stocks fall as frenzy over policy easing ebbs
Stock futures moved slightly higher on Thursday evening as Wall Street looked to end the week on a positive note after a historic inflation report.
Futures contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked up 51 points. Those for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 added roughly 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively.
The move in futures comes after the stock market appears to have withstood the hottest inflation report in 30 years on Wednesday. The major indexes are on track to snap five-week winning streaks but are still within striking distance of their recent records.
Randy Frederick, managing director of trading and derivatives for the Schwab Center for Financial Research, said that year-over-year comparisons to an abnormal 2020 and rising wages may have dented the reaction to the inflation report and could allow the Federal Reserve to maintain its accommodative stance longer than the rise in prices alone would suggest.
“Big numbers get big headlines, and yes prices are higher, but you’ve got also wage increases that are just about to the same amount as inflation is. So inflation is definitely real, but the impact isn’t quite as severe as people think,” Frederick said.
---- This week has seen more dramatic action in the bond market, where the inflation report led to a sharp reversal for the recent decline in the 10-year Treasury yield on Wednesday. The bond market was closed on Thursday for Veterans Day.
On Thursday, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.5%, while the S&P 500 edged slightly higher. The Dow dropped nearly 160 points, dragged down by Disney’s post-earnings slide.
Through Thursday, the Dow is down 1.1% for the week, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are down 1% and 1.7%, respectively.
In other news, China’s still largely a command economy. Don’t fight the regulators!
The UK’s recovery muddles along, but is it heading towards stagflation?
China wields political might to cool coal prices, but winter looms
BEIJING (Reuters) - In just 10 days after a blizzard of meetings and official notices, Chinese regulators last month nearly halved soaring domestic prices for thermal coal, the main source of power for the world’s No. 2 economy.
Beijing’s raft of interventions underscored the extent - and some limitations - of its regulatory might, but the country still faces the daunting task of keeping the fuel cheap and abundant through winter.
The price of thermal coal - which accounts for roughly 60% of China’s electricity needs - more than tripled in the 12 months to mid-October after years of moves to curb overproduction ran into booming post-pandemic industrial demand for power.
As soaring prices forced electricity producers to curb output, sparking power rationing and sapping economic growth, Beijing raced to boost production and bring in measures ranging from price targets to a crackdown on hoarding and probes into data providers.
The most-traded thermal coal futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange plunged in the 10 days after hitting a lifetime high on Oct. 19, and were down 56% from that mark on Friday.
Spot physical coal prices at the southern port of Guangzhou also fell sharply and are now down nearly 44% from their October high. Prices for both, though, are still up more than 60% so far this year.
“No other country could have achieved a similar result considering the scale and timeline,” said Steve Hulton and Fabian Ronningen, analysts at consultancy Rystad Energy said.
“It truly shows the power of Chinese authorities over the domestic coal market and the economy in general.”
The raft of interventions has spilled into the global coal market, with prices in major coal exporters Australia and Indonesia falling in recent days, and has left market participants wary of further regulatory meddling.
More
UK economy grows 0.6% in Sept after weak summer
Published Thu, Nov 11 2021 2:33 AM EST
Britain’s economy grew by 0.6% in September but estimates for previous months were revised lower, leaving GDP 0.6% smaller than it was in February 2020, shortly before the country went into its first COVID-19 lockdown.
The data painted a picture of an economy losing its post-lockdown momentum due to global supply chain problems and caution on the part of businesses.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast monthly gross domestic product growth of 0.4% for September.
The Office for National Statistics said GDP in July fell by 0.2%, a bigger decline than a previously estimated fall of 0.1%, while output in August was shown rising by just 0.2%, weaker than an originally reported 0.4%.
“Although monthly output rebounded through the quarter from July’s contraction this is more likely to reflect a temporary boost from restrictions easing, rather than a meaningful improvement,” Suren Thiru, head of economics at the British Chambers of Commerce, said.
September’s growth was helped by stronger output in the health sector as people got back to visiting their doctors after falling during the pandemic, leading to a 0.7% rise in the services sector from August.
But industrial output fell by 0.4% as gas distribution shrank for a fourth month in a row.
In the third quarter as a whole, GDP grew by 1.3%, the weakest three-month growth since Britain was under lockdown in early 2021. The Bank of England and the Reuters poll of economists had forecast an expansion of 1.5%.
The world’s fifth-biggest economy shrank by nearly 10% in 2020 but the International Monetary Fund has forecast it is on track to have the fastest expansion of any Group of Seven country in 2021 when it was expected to grow by 6.8%.
More
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/11/uk-economy-grows-0point6percent-in-sept-after-weak-summer.html
Finally, California sets the wrong sort of record. President Biden can only wish he had the command economy powers of President Xi.
Somehow, I don’t think even command economy powers can sort out the shipping problems of San Pedro Bay.
A record 111 container ships are floating off California's busiest ports, despite Biden's 24/7 schedule and looming fines
Wed, November 10, 2021, 11:12 AM
The number of container ships stuck off the coast of Southern California reached new records on Tuesday.
According to data from the Marine Exchange, a total of 111 container ships are bobbing at sea around the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, waiting to dock and unload. That breaks the previous record of 108 vessels reported on October 21.
The two ports remain clogged despite efforts to speed up the processing of containers amid a surge in consumer demand for goods. The White House announced a shift to an around-the-clock schedule in October and a new looming threat of fines for leaving containers on the docks for several days.
A global supply chain crisis caused by a fall in shipping demand during the early days of the pandemic in 2020 followed by a surge at the end of that year has led to delays and blockages across the world.
Containers have been stacked up on the docks for weeks waiting to be unloaded, but a shortage of on-dock workers and truck drivers has led to long delays in the process. These port jams mean that ships are unable to dock and drop new cargo.
The size of the logjam is unprecedented. Before the pandemic, the ports hadn't seen a backlog greater than 17 ships, Kip Louttit, head of the Marine Exchange, previously told Insider. In the past few months, it's common to find around 100-plus ships lingering around these ports waiting to berth.
Last month, the two ports said they would begin fining shipping companies $100 a day for every container left on the docks. The ports started collecting data at the start of November and will begin charging the companies on November 15.
Shipping firms have three days to move containers if their next step is by rail, or nine days if the next step is by truck.
Experts say these fees will do little to resolve the port jams.
"The issue isn't about a lack of desire to move boxes, but a lack of physical space," Corey Bertsch, VP Solutions Consulting at Slync.io, a global logistics company, told Insider's Grace Kay.
More
https://www.yahoo.com/news/record-111-container-ships-floating-111217795.html
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Big business bosses are warning that supply chain issues and inflation are here to stay
Published Wed, Nov 10 2021 9:24 AM EST Updated Wed, Nov 10 2021 9:26 AM EST
LONDON — Top executives at multiple European blue-chip companies have told CNBC that supply chain problems, labor shortages and inflationary pressures will run for longer than policymakers are expecting.
The most recent inflation prints have done little to assuage concerns about stickier inflation. The U.S. consumer price index jumped 6.2% in October from a year ago, official figures revealed on Wednesday, the sharpest annual rise for 30 years and vastly outstripping the U.S. Federal Reserve’s target.
Chinese producer price index inflation surged 13.5% annually in October, while U.S. PPI grew at 8.6% annually, equaling an all-time record.
Companies around the world are battling supply chain bottlenecks as a post-pandemic spike in demand converges with industrial production struggling to catch up after lengthy Covid-induced shutdowns.
Ahold Delhaize Chief Financial Officer Natalie Knight told CNBC Wednesday that although she was confident of the Belgian-Dutch grocer’s strategy to deal with such pressures, they showed no sign of abating.
“I think what we are definitely seeing is inflation is picking up, but what I would also say is when you look at food, it is a smaller share of wallet than some other categories, and we definitely see other areas where inflation looks a lot higher than in our industry,” Knight said.
Knight suggested rising consumer prices will continue through the fourth quarter. She said Ahold Delhaize was working to ensure price increases were not passed on to customers.
“We’re working with the vendors, we’re working with economists making sure we’ve got the right ‘should cost’ models, so that we’re able to really only accept the prices that are absolutely necessary,” she added.
---- Policymakers across major central banks have largely held the line that the period of high inflation in their respective economies, and the global supply problems feeding into it, are “transitory.” However, many companies have warned of increased cost pressures in their third-quarter earnings reports in recent weeks.
Managing supply problems a ‘core competence’
Supply chain woes have been exacerbated in different parts of the world by various geopolitical factors. For instance, power shortages in China have affected production in recent months, while in the U.K., Brexit has been a big contributor to a shortage of truck drivers and agricultural workers.
However, concerns over the persistence of these problems were echoed by Siemens Energy CEO Christian Bruch, who told CNBC Wednesday that the industrial world is going to be dealing with this “for quite some time.”
“It is going to be way into 2022 and honestly, my belief is managing the supply chain will be something which will be with us for [a long time],” he said.
“It will be a really core competence of companies like us, making sure that you can manage these scarcities and issues on the supply chain, not only on the material but also on the logistics side.”
Bruch said the energy industry in particular would need to improve its management of shortages, given the increased demand for raw materials needed for the promised transition toward renewables.
---- Following Unilever’s results in late October, CEO Alan Jope said the British consumer goods giant was witnessing “once in two-decade inflationary pressure.”
“We are seeing commodity inflation across really every type of input cost that we have — agricultural commodities, petrochemical commodities, paper and board, transport, logistics, energy, labor — all are moving in an upward direction,” he said.
More
A new recruitment tool for employers — paying workers every day
Struggling to attract workers as the coronavirus pandemic drags on, major companies are dangling an uncommon benefit to lure job candidates: a chance to get paid every day.
Dozens of employers — including fast-food chains Arby's, Wendy's, Jimmy John's and Taco Bell as well as retailers Big Lots, Dollar Tree and Kroger— are now giving employees the option to withdraw money from their paychecks moments after finishing their shift by using smartphone apps like Branch or DailyPay.
"Usually people aren't taking out $100 to go to the bar at night," DailyPay Chief Marketing Officer Jeanniey Walden told CBS MoneyWatch. "They're taking out, for example, $37.10 because they have a light bill that they forgot to pay."
Such apps are essentially software add-ons to existing payroll systems like ADP. Employees can download the app on their iPhone or Android device and log in using a company-provided email or phone number. The app shows workers by the hour how much cash they're earning as their shift progresses throughout the work day and allows them to transfer their wages to a connected bank account with the touch of a button.
Taxes and any pay garnishments are automatically taken out before a user can tap the funds. Of course, withdrawing wages whittles down the amount workers would ordinarily get when paid in full every two weeks. Still, Walden said the service benefits both employers and workers, noting that DailyPay is free to companies.
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Today, more on the greed of big Pharma.
Pfizer accused of warping Covid-19 vaccine distribution claims
Thursday 11 November 2021 6:00 am
Human rights charity Amnesty International UK has accused Pfizer of making misleading claims about the distribution of its Covid-19 vaccines to low-income countries.
“Pfizer says it is committed to supplying doses to low and middle-income countries, but the numbers just don’t bear this out. The fact is that this company is still putting profits first,” the charity’s head of business and human rights, Patrick Wilcken said.
Amnesty claimed the pharmaceutical giant admitted in a letter to the charity that less than eight per cent of the two billion vaccines it said it had shipped by the end of September, had reached their destination.
Pfizer executives have also said that by the end of the year the US firm will have supplied at least one billion doses to what it refers to as “low and middle-income nations” – which accounts for over 84 per cent of the global population.
The hailed vaccine maker, however, has grouped low, lower-middle and upper-middle countries into one group, referring to them as “low and middle-income”.
However, within this category which encompasses a large portion of the planet, the bulk of Pfizer’s doses have been going to “upper-middle” income countries such as Malaysia, Mexico and Thailand, Amnesty said.
The letter to Amnesty also said: “Recently we pledged to provide two billion doses of our Covid-19 vaccine to middle- and low-income countries over the next 18 months. We expect to provide one billion of these doses to low- and middle-income countries this year. And we pledged to deliver another one billion doses to these countries in 2022.
“Upon finalisation of all agreements, we expect 40 per cent of our planned supply to go to low- and middle -income countries.”
Pfizer pulled a massive $36bn revenue from its vaccine branch Comirnaty in its third quarter, up from $33.5bn, as the firm continues to reap the rewards of being one of the first to crack the Covid-19 jab formula.
https://www.cityam.com/pfizer-accused-of-warping-covid-19-vaccine-distribution-claims/
Moderna took NIH money and help for its covid vaccine. Now it wants to leave government scientists off a lucrative patent.
Christopher Rowland, (c) 2021, The Washington Post
Wed, November 10, 2021, 1:13 AM
Moderna is disputing some claims by the National Institutes of Health that it was behind the invention of the company's mRNA coronavirus vaccine, raising the stakes in the debate over the government's ability to exert influence over the availability and price of the vaccine in the future.
At the core of the dispute is the contribution of NIH-funded scientists who worked closely with Moderna at the dawn of the pandemic to develop the groundbreaking vaccine.
The dispute was revealed in patent applications filed by Moderna that were reviewed by researchers for the consumer advocacy group Public Citizen.
Some of Moderna's applications excluded government-funded scientists.
The dispute between Moderna and NIH was first reported Tuesday by the New York Times.
The NIH had asserted in documents filed at the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office that three scientists, including Barney Graham, a leading vaccine researcher at the National Institute for Allergies and Infectious Disease, were inventors of key elements of the vaccine, Moderna acknowledged in the documents.
"However, (Moderna has) reached the good-faith determination that these individuals did not co-invent the mRNAs and mRNA compositions claimed in the present application," Moderna said in the documents.
Vaccines and drugs typically are covered by multiple patents. In the case of the mRNA vaccine, Moderna has recognized the contribution of NIH scientists in just one of four patents that Public Citizen examined.
More.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/moderna-took-nih-money-help-011304968.html
Moderna says Covid vaccine has fewer breakthrough cases than Pfizer’s, but higher myocarditis rates in young men
Moderna defended the use of its Covid-19 vaccine Thursday, saying the protection it offers against severe disease, hospitalization and death outweighs the risk of myocarditis, a rare heart condition seen in a small number of young men who received the shot.
The company announced last week that the Food and Drug Administration needed more time to decide whether to authorize its two-dose vaccine for use in children ages 12 to 17 as the agency looks into reports of myocarditis, or the inflammation of the heart muscle.
Reported cases of the rare heart inflammation in men under age 30 are relatively higher after Moderna’s vaccine compared with those who received the shots made by Pfizer and BioNTech, Moderna Chief Medical Officer Dr. Paul Burton told reporters on a call Thursday.
Burton cited data from France on males ages 12 to 29. It showed there were 13.3 cases of myocarditis per 100,000 people for Moderna’s vaccine compared with 2.7 cases per 100,000 people for the Pfizer vaccine.
However, he also touted data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that showed the rates of mild or severe disease from Covid were lower in Moderna recipients than in those who received Pfizer’s or Johnson & Johnson’s vaccines. For example, there were 86 breakthrough cases per 100,000 people for the Moderna vaccine. That compares to 135 breakthrough cases per 100,000 for Pfizer’s, he said.
More
Germany was once praised for its Covid response. Now it’s seeing 50,000 cases a day, prompting a dramatic warning
Published Thu, Nov 11 2021 7:38 AM EST
Germany was once seen as a prime example of how to deal with the coronavirus. Now, it’s recording close to 50,000 new Covid cases a day, prompting a dire warning of a dramatic rise in fatalities from one expert.
Germany is in the midst of what has been described as a fourth wave of Covid, as the delta variant spreads as the weather gets colder. Thursday marks the fourth day in a row that it has posted a fresh daily high, Reuters noted, with the number of new cases coming in at 50,196.
Data from the country’s public health body, the Robert Koch Institute, showed that Germany’s total number of cases has now hit 4.89 million and that the number of fatalities stands at 97,198.
The data is worrying Germany’s officials and public health experts.
Outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel has reportedly called for an urgent meeting with state premiers to discuss the country’s response to the Covid crisis. Her chief spokesman Steffen Seibert said on Wednesday that the virus was “spreading dramatically” and that a “quick and unified response” was required.
Leading German virologist Christian Drosten called for urgent action on Tuesday, warning that the country could witness as many as 100,000 more deaths from the virus if nothing was done to tackle the spread of the virus.
Speaking on the NDR podcast, Drosten said that 100,000 deaths was a “conservative estimate” and that “we have a real emergency situation at the moment” with millions of Germans still unvaccinated.
More
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Electrochemical pulses address weakness in next-gen lithium metal batteries
Nick Lavars November 10, 2021
Two promising avenues in the development of next-energy storage involve the use of high-density lithium metal and an electrolyte that is solid rather than liquid, and a new study brings these branches of battery research together in an exciting new breakthrough. Scientists in the US have demonstrated how stability issues associated with these architectures might be solved with the help of electrochemical pulses, paving the way for electric vehicles and smartphones that run for far longer on each charge.
Part of this field of research focuses on anodes, which act as one of the device's two electrodes and helps facilitates the transport of lithium ions via a liquid electrolyte. Today's anodes are made from a mix of graphite and copper, but pure lithium metal is a tantalizing alternative as it offers the highest energy density among solid materials. Integrating lithium metal into batteries has proven difficult so far, however, with scientists running into various safety issues that swiftly bring them undone.
There is a line of thinking that using a solid electrolyte in place of a liquid one would lead to a battery better suited for use with lithium metal. And this intersection of materials is the focus of the new work from scientists at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), who believe they've come up with a way to join them together in a stable and long-lasting way that doesn't compromise performance.
Melding materials together in solid-state batteries is typically a tricky task, as ongoing charge and discharge cycles leads to instability in the joints and cause voids to form, something known as contact impedance. Applying pressure is one way this problem might be solved, but is a technique that would need to be used periodically as the battery is operated, and can also cause it to short.
The ORNL scientists found that they could eliminate these voids by applying a short, high-voltage electrochemical pulse when the lithium metal anode is joined with a solid electrolyte. These pulses see a current surround the voids that causes them to dissipate, resulting in more widespread contact at the interface of the materials.
Because this has no detrimental effect on the battery, and the pulsing technique could be applied to restore it to nearly its original capacity, the scientists imagine this technology one day offering a viable way to manage solid-state, lithium-metal batteries during operation. They say this kind of system could offer twice the energy density of today's solutions in a much smaller package, which would mean electric vehicles can travel much farther per charge, or smartphones that run for days at a time.
“This method will enable an all-solid-state architecture without applying an extrinsic force that can damage the cell and is not practical to deploy during the battery’s usage,” said Ilias Belharouak, co-lead on the project. “In the process we’ve developed, the battery can be manufactured as normal and then a pulse can be applied to rejuvenate and refresh the interface if the battery becomes fatigued.”
The scientists are now continuing to develop the technology, by experimenting with more advanced electrolyte materials, and investigating how it might be scaled up for use in a working-scale solid-state battery system.
The research was published in the journal ACS Energy Letters.
Another weekend and what pearls of wisdom will flow out from the Coven of Glasgow?
Will China really stop using coal? Will Russia really stop selling natural gas to Germany? Will Americans really give up cars that are reliable, travel long distances of a tank of fuel and are easy, quick and safe to refuel? Will Canadians really venture out into the woods and across frozen lakes on electric Ski-Doos? Will we really all have to return to the Dark Age?
Stay tuned for the coming Big Shot's, Big Deal decrees from rainy Glasgow. Have a great weekend everyone.
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.”
Charles MacKay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
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