Baltic Dry Index. 2452 +98 Brent Crude 78.89
Spot Gold 1846
For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.
H. L. Mencken.
This weekend, bad news continues as good news in the stock casinos fuelled by mountains of central bankster Magic Money Tree fiat money.
Crude oil took a late hit from talk of a coordinated international release next week from strategic oil reserves. If it happens at all, it will happen in the lightly traded US Thanksgiving holiday week. That alone is enough to unsettle the crude oil market.
In the rump-EU, surging Covid-19 infections led Austria back into lockdown, while the Netherlands, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic reimposed curbs, and Germany hinted it might have to do the same.
German bond traders bet heavily that Germany will.
“Investors made a beeline for bonds, turning Germany's entire yield curve negative for the first time since August as 30-year government borrowing costs fell below 0%.”
In America, a teenager President Biden defamed as a racist “white supremacist” interfering in his trial, was acquitted of all charges on Friday. An explosive weekend might now lie ahead.
All in all, a good time to be in cash out of harm’s way.
Japan considers releasing oil reserves to curb prices -Kyodo
November 20, 2021 4:33 AM GMT
TOKYO, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Japan's government is considering releasing oil from its reserves in response to rising crude oil prices, Kyodo news agency reported on Saturday, without citing sources.
It would be the first time for Japan to release oil reserves for the sake of lowering prices, although the country in the past has tapped such reserves when it faced natural disasters and geopolitical risks overseas, Kyodo said.
Government officials were not immediately available for comment.
The government of U.S. President Joe Biden, who faces falling approval ratings and higher gasoline prices, has pressed some of the world's biggest economies to consider releasing oil from their strategic reserves to quell high energy prices.
The requests include asking China for the first time to consider releasing stocks of crude.
Japan reacted positively to the initial U.S. outreach on a possible coordinated reserve release and was considering such a step, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters previously.
More
Oil dives 3% to below $80/bbl on resurgent pandemic in Europe
November 19, 2021 9:06 PM GMT
NEW YORK, Nov 19 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell about 3% to below $80 a barrel on Friday as surging COVID-19 cases in Europe threatened to slow the economic recovery while investors also weighed a potential release of crude reserves by major economies to cool prices.
Brent futures for January fell $2.35, or 2.9%, to settle at $78.89 a barrel.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for December fell $2.91, or 3.6%, to $76.10 on its last day as the front-month. WTI for January , which will soon be the U.S. front-month, was down about $2.65, or 3.4%, to $75.78.
Both benchmarks declined for the fourth consecutive week, for the first time since March 2020.
"The fear of the unknown is weighing on market sentiment," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures in Chicago. "The worry is that we will get some sort of coordinated release during the Thanksgiving Holiday next week, when volumes are typically low and dramatic moves have occurred."
----Germany, Europe's largest economy, warned it may also have to move to a full lockdown. read more
Brent has surged almost 60% this year as economies have bounced back from the pandemic and as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, known as OPEC+, have only raised output gradually.
"The (oil) market still remains fundamentally in a good position but lockdowns are now an obvious risk... if other countries follow Austria's lead," Craig Erlam, market analyst at OANDA, said in a note.
Governments from some of the world's biggest economies were looking into releasing oil from strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) following a request from the United States, first reported by Reuters, for a coordinated move to cool prices.
The White House on Friday pressed the OPEC producer group again to maintain adequate global supply, days after U.S. discussions with some of the world's biggest economies over potentially releasing oil from strategic reserves to quell high energy prices. read more
Speculation about a U.S. SPR release already pushed oil prices down about $4 a barrel in recent weeks and additional supplies of up to 100 million barrels are already priced in, Goldman Sachs oil analysts said in a note.
As a result, it said any release "would only provide a short-term fix to a structural deficit."
More
In the stock casinos, worry over rising EU Covid lockdowns. Is Germany next to come to the EU lockdown party?
COVID comeback threatens fresh setback for European market bulls
November 19, 2021 4:50 PM GMT
LONDON, Nov 19 (Reuters) - COVID-19 lockdowns have returned anew to haunt Europe's economic prospects, forcing investors on Friday to reassess portfolios and sell vulnerable assets such as the euro and bank stocks.
Days after the Netherlands, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic reimposed curbs, Austria put itself back under lockdown and Germany's health minister refused to rule out one. read more
Markets were little soothed by Germany's foreign minister ruling out a lockdown and mandatory vaccinations for all to tabloid Bild.
The developments upended the buoyant mood in European equity markets where French and German shares had hit a string of record highs, thanks to a strong earnings recovery.
A pan-European equity index, up 80% from March 2020 (.STOXX), slipped half a percent on Friday (.STOXX).
"One thing is certain, if the whole of Europe had to go under lockdown once more, and depending on how long that would last, we would need to rethink our growth scenarios," said Stephane Ekolo, a global equity strategist at the brokerage Tradition.
As markets started scaling back wagers on euro zone interest rate rises for next year, an index of European banks (.SX7P) plunged 2.5%, its biggest daily drop since late September.
The question now is to what extent lockdowns might hammer expectations for fourth-quarter earnings. Refinitiv I/B/E/S currently flags a 51% rise for the STOXX 600 benchmark, only marginally below 60% in Q3.
----But some ominous signs had emerged for Europe even before the latest COVID resurgence. European data lags U.S. equivalents by the biggest margin in over a year, according to economic surprise indexes compiled by Citi. (.CESI.)
Hospitality turnover was also weakening, Oxford Economics pointed out, noting Germany's 3.5% drop in September.
"Markets have been aware for a few weeks now that this winter will be difficult and that the vaccination rollout doesn't reduce lockdown risk by 100%," said Emmanuel Cau, head of European equity strategy at Barclays.
The setback, if it deepens, will prove painful to many. BofA's widely followed monthly investor survey showed funds most bullish on euro zone equities, with a 33% "overweight" and EU banks especially in favour. read more
More
In China news, nothing but rising trouble in the property market.
China's land sales slump for 4th month as property woes worsen
November 19, 2021 10:22 AM GMT
BEIJING, Nov 19 (Reuters) - The Chinese government's revenue from land sales slumped for a fourth month in October compared with year-ago levels, as cash-strapped developers moved cautiously on land buying after tighter regulatory curbs on new borrowing.
The value of government land sales in October declined 13.14% from a year earlier to 573.7 billion yuan ($89.90 billion), after suffering a drop of 11.15% in September, according to Reuters calculations of data released by the finance ministry on Friday.
Many developers including China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) have grown desperately short of cash since authorities last year unveiled the "three red lines" - a policy of President Xi Jinping that imposes limits on liabilities-to-assets, net debt-to-equity, and cash-to-short-term borrowing ratios.
Poor demand among developers at urban land auctions risks squeezing regional finances, pressuring local governments to scramble for other income to fund investment and support the economy, including the issuance of more bonds that increase their debt obligations, say some analysts.
"Declining land sales will constrain fiscal funding for infrastructure, leading Chinese regional and local governments to temporarily shift to debt-funded growth," Moody's said in a recent report.
Not all provinces and regions are equally dependent on land-sale revenue.
"The unevenness in regional growth will persist, with developed provinces continuing to perform better than less-developed ones," Moody's said.
China's government land-sale revenue grew 6.1% to 5.9371 trillion yuan ($930.29 billion) in January-October from a year earlier，data from the finance ministry showed, slowing from the 8.7% rise in the first nine months.
---- Private developers have bought at least 140.6 billion yuan of land in a completed round of auctions held by 22 major cities, down about 75% from 553.1 billion yuan in the first round of sales this year in March-June, according to a Reuters analysis of public notices on the sales.
More
The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.
H. L. Mencken.
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Thanksgiving dinner cost jumps with inflation on the menu
November 19, 2021 11:16 AM GMT
CHICAGO, Nov 19 (Reuters) - Thanksgiving dinner will cost U.S. consumers an average of 14% more this year in the biggest annual increase in 31 years, the American Farm Bureau Federation said, though shoppers can still find deals in grocery stores.
Rising food and gas prices are squeezing U.S. consumers as the pandemic snarls global supply chains and the economic drag from the summer wave of COVID-19 infections fades.
The Farm Bureau, which represents U.S. farmers and the broader agriculture industry, pointed to inflation and supply-chain disruptions for lifting the average cost of a Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people to $53.31 from a 10-year-low $46.90 in 2020. The cost is based on Farm Bureau shoppers who checked prices for turkey, cranberries, dinner rolls and other staples in stores from Oct. 26 to Nov. 8.
"The cranberry sauce, the stuffing, all those things that are traditional, have gone up," said Sherry Hooker, a 69-year-old retiree shopping at Jewel-Osco store in Chicago on Thursday.
The COVID-19 pandemic has made it difficult to predict consumer demand, which adds to high prices, the Farm Bureau said. Average prices for turkey, the centerpiece of many Thanksgiving dinners, are up 24% from 2020 at about $1.50 per pound, Farm Bureau said.
More
Credit Suisse chairman warns 'temporary inflation' talk too upbeat
November 18, 2021 4:39 PM GMT
LISBON, Nov 18 (Reuters) - The talking down of speeding inflation as a temporary phenomenon by many central banks poses risks of a more intense monetary adjustment at a later date than would otherwise be needed, Credit Suisse Chairman Antonio Horta-Osorio said.
"Markets have been giving a lot of credit to central banks... but the latest indicators are that the temporary is perhaps less temporary," he told a banking conference in Lisbon, calling the central banks' discourse "somewhat courageous"
"The risk for central banks here is that if inflation proves not to be temporary, it could trigger a much more intense monetary adjustment than would otherwise be necessary," the Portuguese former Lloyds Bank chief executive added.
Supply chain disruptions and a sharp increase in energy prices are now driving market inflation expectations, which Horta-Osorio said would be important in defining what happens to long-term interest rates and the yield curve.
If interest rates start rising aggressively before economies have managed to reduce their indebtedness, "it would be the biggest threat" to countries like Portugal, which had the third-largest public debt in the European Union: 135% of GDP in 2020.
At the same conference, European Central Bank Governing Council member and Bank of Portugal Governor Mario Centeno insisted that "inflation is still a temporary phenomenon" due to the speed of recovery and the bottlenecks of supply chains, with no secondary effects from the labour market on prices in Europe.
More
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
This weekend, Austria, land of the unfree, everyone is now a serf of the state. A violation of their EU civil rights, but in modern Austria might makes right, apparently, just like the “good old days” of the 1930s.
Austria reimposes full lockdown, plans to make COVID vaccines compulsory
November 19, 2021 10:55 AM GMT
VIENNA, Nov 19 (Reuters) - Austria will become the first country in western Europe to reimpose a full coronavirus lockdown this autumn to tackle a new wave of infections, and will require its whole population to get vaccinated as of February, the government said on Friday.
Roughly two-thirds of Austria's population is fully vaccinated, one of the lowest rates in western Europe. Much of the public is sceptical about vaccines, a view encouraged by the far-right Freedom Party, the third biggest in parliament. It is planning a protest against coronavirus restrictions on Saturday.
Austria introduced a lockdown for those who are not fully vaccinated on Monday but since then infections have continued to set new records. Its infections are among the highest on the continent, with a seven-day incidence of 991 per 100,000 people.
"We have not succeeded in convincing enough people to get vaccinated," Chancellor Alexander Schallenberg told a news conference, saying the lockdown would start on Monday and last up to 20 days. The blanket requirement to get vaccinated will start on Feb. 1, he added.
"It hurts that such measures still have to be taken."
With cold weather setting in across Europe, governments have been forced to consider reimposing unpopular lockdowns against continued COVID-19 contagion. The Netherlands is now in partial lockdown with bars and restaurants closing at 8 p.m. read more
The issue has deepened a rift between Schallenberg's conservatives and their coalition partner, the left-wing Greens. Schallenberg said only days ago he did not want to impose extra restrictions on the unvaccinated, even as Health Minister Wolfgang Mueckstein called for a nighttime curfew.
"Too many among us have not shown enough solidarity. I ask you all to help. Take part, support these measures, let us try to reduce our social contacts for a maximum of 20 days so that the Christmas holidays are protected," Schallenberg said.
Hungary reports record daily 11,289 COVID infections
November 19, 2021 11:06 AM GMT
BUDAPEST, Nov 19 (Reuters) - Hungary reported 11,289 new COVID-19 cases on Friday, its highest daily tally since the start of the pandemic, the government said, as infections rise across Europe.
Hungary, a country of 10 million people whose vaccination rate lags the EU average, imposed new curbs on Thursday, a day before neighbour Austria, which also has a relatively low vaccination rate, announced a full lockdown.
Hungary will make booster shots mandatory for all healthcare workers and require mask wearing in most indoor places from Saturday, Prime Minister Viktor Orban's chief of staff said on Thursday.
These changes fall short of the strict measures that the Hungarian Medical Chamber called for on Wednesday. The chamber asked for a ban on mass events and said entry to restaurants, theatres and cinemas should be conditional on a COVID-19 immunity certificate. read more
"The peak will most likely not take place sooner than last year (early December), which means that the special legal order (state of emergency) will most probably not end on January 1, but will be extended again, effectively until the election," brokerage Erste Investment said.
"This will create an opportunity for the government for example to extend the fuel market intervention beyond the currently planned three months," it said.
Orban told public radio on Friday that Hungary would in February review and possibly extend a cap on fuel prices. Orban's government announced the cap last week and it came into effect on Monday. read more
Next, some very useful vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some more useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Injection of "dancing molecules" gets paralyzed mice walking in 4 weeks
Michael Irving November 14, 2021
Spinal cord injuries are among the most debilitating, leading to difficulty walking or a complete paralysis of limbs. In a new breakthrough study, researchers at Northwestern University have developed a gel containing “dancing molecules” that allowed paralyzed mice to walk again four weeks after a single injection.
Neurons in the spine transmit signals between the brain and muscles, so damage to these can make even simple movements difficult or impossible. To make matters worse, the central nervous system has very limited capacity to repair itself, meaning paralysis is often permanent.
The new study reports a breakthrough therapy which, the team says, was able to repair the damage in five main ways. It regenerated axons, significantly reduced scar tissue formation, replenished the insulating myelin layer around axons, increased production of blood vessels, and increased the number of motor neurons that survived the injury.
In tests in mice, the results were very promising. The treatment was administered as a single injection of a liquid containing two types of modified peptides, and just four weeks later paralyzed mice were able to walk again.
The team says that the treatment works because these peptides trigger cascading signals that help repair the spinal cord. One peptide sets off a signal that regenerates axons, while the second reduces scarring and promotes the regrowth of blood vessels and myelin.
After injection, the liquid gels into a nanofiber structure that mimics the extracellular matrix surrounding the spinal cord. That allows the peptides to stick around much longer to do their work, before the gel biodegrades after about 12 weeks.
“The signals used in the study mimic the natural proteins that are needed to induce the desired biological responses,” says Zaida Álvarez, first author of the study. “However, proteins have extremely short half-lives and are expensive to produce. Our synthetic signals are short, modified peptides that – when bonded together by the thousands – will survive for weeks to deliver bioactivity. The end result is a therapy that is less expensive to produce and lasts much longer.”
But the key breakthrough, the team says, is that the gel matrix allows the molecules to move around to find the right receptors in the cells. Intriguingly, the treatment showed greater efficacy in mice that received treatments with more mobile molecules. Similar results were seen in human cells in culture.
More
Winter Watch.
This weekend more on the new winter watch section. Northern hemisphere snow and the Arctic ice cover. Both by about mid-November give a pretty good indication of the winter to come.
The Eur-Asian snow cover this November is extensive, far more than last year which came off of an unusual Siberian summer heatwave that probably affected both the snow cover and Arctic ice.
The Arctic sea ice extent this mid-November is slightly below normal. Taken together, this more often than not suggests much of Europe is headed for a colder than normal winter, although given the Arctic sea ice extent, not a harsh winter.
U.S. and Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover
https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nh_snowcover/
Read scientific analysis on Arctic sea ice conditions.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
This weekend’s musical diversion. The “Red Priest” again. Approx. 12 minutes.
Concerto per Violino, Organo et [Violoncello] Del Vivaldi / RV 554a in C major (Autograph score)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J2OiAysVcZ8
This weekend’s maths update. Fun and games with parabolas. Approx. 14 minutes.
The Secret of Parabolic Ghosts
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UapiTAxMXE
This weekend’s interesting video. When the R.A.F. made a mistake.
Approx. 27 minutes but worth it.
How One Decision Ruined British Aircraft Engines
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOSe4lmy8S4
On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.
H. L. Mencken.
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