Baltic Dry Index. 2807 -37 Brent Crude 81.80
Spot Gold 1858
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 15/11/21 World 254,050,580
Deaths 5,115,804
Inflation is the true opium of the people and it is administered to them by anti-capitalist governments and parties.
Ludwig von Mises.
Figures from Asia this morning, suggest a global economy headed towards stagflation.
At Glasgow, in the last two weeks, politicians and financiers committed the global economy to an expensive long transition to an iffy carbonless, or at least greatly carbon reduced global economy.
This coming at a time of already high global inflation and many national economies starting to stall out from reduced stimulation, rising Covid infections and continuing shipping and supply-chain disruption.
In slightly better news this morning, crude oil is easing on talk that President Biden might authorize a fuel release from the US strategic petroleum reserve, while later today President Biden and President Xi are to hold a virtual meeting on a wide range of topics,
In more troubling news this morning scroll down to the Covid-19 section.
China shares trade lower even as economic data beats expectations; South Korea leads gains in Asia
SINGAPORE — Shares in Asia-Pacific were mixed in Monday trade as investors reacted to the latest Chinese economic data for October.
Mainland Chinese stocks were lower, with the Shanghai composite slipping around 0.3% while the Shenzhen component dipped 0.605%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index sat fractionally lower.
The losses came despite Chinese economic data coming in better than expected.
Data released Monday showed retail sales in China rose 4.9% year-on-year in October, higher than the 3.5% gain predicted in a Reuters poll. Industrial output for the month also grew 3.5% compared to a year ago, beating expectations by analysts in a Reuters poll for a 3% increase.
Elsewhere, South Korea’s Kospi climbed 1.04%, leading gains among the region’s major markets as shares of chipmaker SK Hynix soared more than 4%.
The Nikkei 225 in Japan rose 0.47% as shares of conglomerate SoftBank Group jumped more than 2%. The Topix index gained 0.32%.
Preliminary estimates released Monday showed Japan’s gross domestic product declining an annualized 3% in the July-September quarter, far worse than the median market forecast for a 0.8% contraction, according to Reuters.
The S&P/ASX 200 in Australia gained 0.34%.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan traded 0.33% higher.
More
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/15/asia-markets-china-economy-currencies-oil.html
China property hit by rare convergence of demand, supply declines
November 15, 2021 6:12 AM GMT
BEIJING, Nov 15 (Reuters) - China's property woes worsened on all fronts last month, as price falls in both new and resale homes amid deeper contractions in construction starts and investment by developers piled pressure on the sector in a rare confluence of declines.
The Chinese property market, accounting for a quarter of gross domestic product by some metrics, has slowed sharply since May, with sentiment increasingly shaken by stress in the sector in the wake of a growing liquidity crisis that has engulfed some of the country's biggest and most indebted developers. read more
Most analysts, however, expect demand and supply to return to more normal conditions by the end of the year or early 2022 as regulators tweak their policies to stabilise the sector.
Prices of new homes dropped 0.2% on average last month from September, according to Reuters calculations of data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday, the first decline since March 2015. In the resale market, prices slumped in all but six of the 70 major cities tracked by the bureau.
On the supply side, new construction starts plunged 33.14% on year in October, extending the 13.54% fall in September, while overall investment by developers in projects dropped 5.4%, deepening from the 3.5% decline a month earlier, Reuters calculations of the NBS data showed.
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Japan's economy shrinks more than expected as supply shortages hit
November 15, 2021 3:11 AM GMT
TOKYO, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Japan's economy contracted much faster than expected in the third quarter as global supply disruptions hit exports and business spending plans and fresh COVID-19 cases soured the consumer mood.
While many analysts expect the world's third-largest economy to rebound in the current quarter as virus curbs ease, worsening global production bottlenecks pose increasing risks to export-reliant Japan.
"The contraction was far bigger than expected due to supply-chain constraints, which hit car output and capital spending hard," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.
"We expect the economy to stage a rebound this quarter but the pace of recovery will be slow as consumption did not get off to a good start even after COVID-19 curbs were eased late in September."
The economy shrank an annualised 3.0% in July-September after a revised 1.5% gain in the first quarter, preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) data showed on Monday, much worse than a median market forecast for a 0.8% contraction.
----Some analysts said Japan's heavy dependency on the auto industry meant the economy was more vulnerable to trade disruptions than other countries.
Shinichiro Kobayashi, principal economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting, said automakers make up a large part of Japan's manufacturing sector with a wide range of subcontractors directly affected.
More
Pledging to retain stimulus, BOJ's Kuroda projects inflation near 1% mid-next yr
November 15, 2021 5:45 AM GMT
TOKYO, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda expects inflation to accelerate to around 1% in the first half of next year as the economy recovers to pre-coronavirus levels, pledging to maintain ultra-easy policy in hopes of a consumption-driven recovery.
With inflation still short of its 2% target, the BOJ will maintain its "powerful" monetary easing and stand ready to ramp up stimulus, even as other central banks head for an exit from crisis-mode policies, Kuroda said on Monday.
"We expect consumer inflation to gradually accelerate to around 1% at about the middle of next year as the output gap turns positive," he said in a speech to business leaders in Nagoya, central Japan.
"Even if inflation does hit 1%, it's still quite distant from our 2% target. As such, we will absolutely not consider dialing back or abandoning ultra-loose policy," Kuroda told a news conference after meeting with the business leaders.
Kuroda said the recovery in the world's third-largest economy has been "somewhat slower than initially expected," as COVID-19 curbs and parts shortages hit consumption and output.
More
Finally, was COP26 a win or a loss? Ask again in 2050 if you believe in global warming and politicians keeping promises.
UN climate boss: ‘Good compromise’ beats no deal on warming
GLASGOW, Scotland (AP) — It was no deal or a lump of coal at Glasgow climate talks and for Patricia Espinosa, the United Nations’ climate secretary, there was no choice.
“No deal was the worst possible result there. Nobody wins,” Espinosa said in an interview with The Associated Press Sunday, about 15 hours after nearly 200 nations agreed on what is now being called the Glasgow Climate Pact.
The world got a climate deal that outside experts said showed progress, but not success. It didn’t achieve any of the three U.N. goals: Pledges that would cut world carbon dioxide emissions by about half, $100 billion in yearly climate aid from rich countries to poor ones and half that money going to help the developing world adapt to the harms of a warming world.
Even more disappointing, a big world economy — India — which is already seeing droughts and extreme heat from global warming was the nation that watered down the final Glasgow deal.
----One climate deal itself won’t do the trick to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times, the U.N.’s overarching goal, Espinosa said. But she said it sets the stage, creating a carbon market, allowing more money to flow from rich to poor nations, even if poor nations were unsatisfied and said it isn’t enough.
“It doesn’t fully satisfy everyone,” she said. “But it brings us forward. It’s a good compromise.”
Compromise was essential when a last minute proposal almost killed her possible deal.
India, the third-largest carbon-polluting country whose development is coal-centric said it couldn’t live with historic language calling for a phase out of coal and an end to fossil fuel subsidies. For many of the countries, especially small island nations facing threats from rising seas, ending coal was key in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and trying to keep warming to a level that would allow their nations to live. Many countries were telling Espinosa and conference president Alok Sharma that the coal phase-out language “has to be in there.”
But no deal or a deal without India was unacceptable.
More
https://apnews.com/article/climate-business-europe-scotland-glasgow-754a38858bb17fc8794b216e3b441316
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
China industrial output, retail sales accelerate but property clouds outlook
November 15, 2021 4:25 AM GMT
· Industrial output +3.5% y/y vs Reuters poll +3.0%, Sept's 3.1%
· Retail sales +4.9% y/y vs Reuters poll +3.5%, Sept's 4.4%
· Fixed asset investment +6.1% vs Reuters poll +6.2%
· Analysts warn of property sector risks, expect easing measures
BEIJING, Nov 15 (Reuters) - China's industrial output and retail sales grew more quickly than expected in October, despite fresh curbs to control COVID-19 outbreaks and supply shortages, but the slowing property sector weighed on the economic outlook.
Output grew 3.5% in October from the same period a year ago, official data showed on Monday, accelerating from a 3.1% increase in September. Retail sales growth also picked up.
The industrial output growth beat expectations of a 3.0% year-on-year increase in a Reuters poll of analysts, but remained the second lowest print this year.
The world's second-largest economy had staged an impressive rebound from last year's pandemic slump, but has since lost momentum as it grapples with a slowing manufacturing sector, debt problems in the property market and COVID-19 outbreaks.
"Economic momentum remained weak in October, with the real estate downturn weighing on industry," said Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics, in a note.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data also showed retail sales accelerated even as China imposed fresh restrictions to fight a new wave of COVID-19 cases in the north. read more
Retail sales rose 4.9% year-on-year in October, beating expectations for 3.5% growth and after a 4.4% increase in September.
"Growth will likely weaken in the rest of this year," said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.
"The COVID outbreak has forced more cities to tighten travel restrictions, which will likely affect the service sector adversely in November. The property sector slowdown is getting worse," Zhang said, adding this was "the key risk for the macro outlook in the next few quarters."
More
High inflation causes meat, sugar and other grocery staple prices to soar
Last Updated: Nov. 12, 2021 at 3:36 p.m. ET First Published: Nov. 12, 2021 at 9:16 a.m. ET
High inflation is eating up the budgets of American households.
The cost of groceries have jumped 5.4% in the past year, marking one of the biggest increases in the past two decades, according to the consumer price index. By contrast, grocery prices did not increase at all in the five years before the pandemic.
Meat, chicken, dairy, eggs, sugar and coffee are among the products that have seen especially large price gains in the past year, Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows.
The rising cost of food has contributed to the biggest surge in U.S. inflation in almost 31 years. The cost of living has soared 6.2% in the 12 months ended in October, new government figures show.
The increase in prices is outstripping wage gains and forcing Americans to devote a bigger share of their income to staples such as food and gas.
Nothing makes Americans feel the impact of inflation as much as groceries, economists say. Most people shop for food at least several times a week, making it easier for them to see when prices rise.
Take bacon. The average cost of bacon nationwide has soared 28% to $7.32 a pound from $5.72 just a year earlier. In some cities, the cost has risen even higher.
Eggs are another eye-opening example. The cost eggs has jumped 29% to $1.82 per dozen from $1.41 a year earlier.
Steak has gotten so expensive — many cuts now top $10 a pound — that consumers are substituting more ground beef. Yet even the cost of popular 80% ground beef has shot up.
A pound of ground beef costs almost 18% more now than it did a year ago. The average price in the U.S. has climbed to $4.72 a pound from $4 in October 2020, government data show.
“Meat prices in particular have soared,” said Jim Baird, chief investment office at Plante Moran Financial Advisors. He pointed out that meat and chicken account for the largest share of household food budgets.
Even these price increases don’t tell the whole story, though.
More
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
China faces biggest Delta outbreak as infections grow in northeastern city
November 15, 20214:54 AM GMT
BEIJING, Nov 15 (Reuters) - China is battling its biggest COVID-19 outbreak caused by the highly transmissible Delta variant, with some areas restricting entry by people from a northeastern city where infections have grown faster than elsewhere in the country in the past week.
A total of 1,308 domestically transmitted infections with confirmed symptoms were reported in the mainland between Oct. 17 and Nov. 14, surpassing the 1,280 local cases from a summer Delta outbreak, Reuters calculations based on official data showed.
This marks China's most widespread Delta outbreak, which has affected 21 provinces, regions and municipalities. It is smaller than many outbreaks in other countries but authorities in China are anxious to block the transmission under the government's zero-tolerance guidance.
A dozen province-level regions contained their flare-ups within weeks, thanks to quick implementation of a complex set of curbs, including rigorous contact tracing, multiple rounds of testing of people in at risk areas, the closure of entertainment and cultural venues and restrictions on tourism and public transport.
However, the northeastern city of Dalian is locked in a struggle with the virus, Wu Liangyou, an official at the National Health Commission, told a Saturday news briefing.
Since Dalian's first local symptomatic patients from the latest outbreak was reported on Nov. 4, the city of 7.5 million people has detected an average of about 24 new local cases a day, more than any other Chinese cities, according to Reuters calculation.
More
New COVID variant found in France: Reason for panic or not quite yet?
The spike protein of the variant known as B.1.640 has some unprecedented mutations.
By MAAYAN JAFFE-HOFFMAN Published: NOVEMBER 13, 2021 13:14
A new COVID variant identified in a handful of European countries is raising concerns among some health professionals because there are changes to the coronavirus spike protein that have never been seen before.
The variant, known either as B.1.X or B.1.640, was first reported by the French paper Le Telegramme after it infected 24 people at a French school in the Brittany region last month. When the variant was discovered in France, the school at which the outbreak occurred was forced to close half of its classes, Le Telegramme reported.
Although the situation is now under control and no cases have been found in France since October 26, the French Regional Health Agency said, the variant remains under surveillance.
A handful of cases were also discovered in the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Scotland and Italy, although the Delta variant and its descendants continue to be the most dominant strains.
Bar-Ilan University Prof. Cyrille Cohen, who is originally from France and regularly interviews and consults with French health officials, explained that the B.1.640 variant has some unprecedented mutations. One in particular has drawn attention: the spike protein, which is what allows the virus to cling to the human cell and start the infection process, has some deletions.
The question is whether this will make the virus more or less infectious.
The variant is believed to have emanated from Africa, a scenario Cohen said health experts are afraid of and that highlights the need for vaccine equality.
“This variant exemplifies that if you leave some of the world’s population without access to vaccines, then the virus will continue to multiply and it will lead to more variants,” Cohen said.
More
Germany brings back free COVID-19 tests as leaders warn of bleak situation
Fri, November 12, 2021, 10:38 AM
BERLIN (Reuters) -Germany will reintroduce free COVID-19 tests from Saturday, the country's acting health minister Jens Spahn said on Friday, as part of measures to hit the brakes on a wave of COVID-19 cases.
The free tests, which were first offered from March as a way to offset a slow vaccine rollout, are being reinstated one month after they were allowed to run out, as the infection rate hit a record for a fifth day running on Friday.
Figures from Germany's Robert Koch Institute (RKI) public health authority earlier showed that 263.7 people out of 100,000 were infected over the last week.
Spahn also said that he supported a stricter requirement that would mean people who are vaccinated and/or recovered must provide a negative coronavirus test to attend public events as well as others.
"We need to do everything necessary to break this momentum," said Spahn.
RKI head Lothar Wieler said that he was against large events in general, especially in light of the upcoming holidays, and he warned that the situation was serious.
"At least 90% of the people in Germany need to have immunity against the coronavirus. Otherwise we can't control the virus," said Wieler at the news conference in Berlin.
Over 67% of the population is fully vaccinated, according to health ministry figures.
Stricter measures to counter the wave of COVID-19 cases sweeping the country are supported by half of Germans, more than twice as many as two weeks ago, a poll showed on Friday.
Only 32% of respondents were satisfied with existing regulations and 49% wanted them toughened, the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen survey of 1,257 Germans conducted from Nov. 9 to 11 for broadcaster ZDF showed.
Two weeks ago, only 20% wanted measures tightened.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/germany-offer-free-covid-19-103815766.html
Revealed: Thousands of double jabbed over 50s have died from COVID in the last 4 weeks
Connor ParkerThu, November 11, 2021, 7:05 PM
More than 2,500 fully vaccinated over 50s have died from COVID-19 in the past month in England, new data shows.
In a report published by the UK Health Security Agency analysis revealed 2,683 fully vaccinated over 50s have died within 28 days of positive COVID test in the last four weeks.
Some 511 unvaccinated people died in the last four weeks of COVID-19.
The figures reflect the fact that the vast majority in this age group has had at least two COVID vaccines.
Death rates among the unvaccinated are significantly higher.
For people aged over 80, the unvaccinated have a death rate of 125.4 per 100,000 compared to the vaccinated 54.9 per 100,000 in the past four weeks.
For 70-79 the gap is even wider, with the unvaccinated death rate at 103.8 per 100,000 compared to 16.2 for the vaccinated.
More
Next-gen supercharged COVID-19 vaccines may also target the common cold
Rich Haridy November 10, 2021
UK researchers investigating a cohort of healthcare workers with a strange pre-existing resistance to SARS-CoV-2 infection have discovered a new antigen target for the next generation of COVID-19 vaccines. The researchers speculate the next wave of vaccines using this antigen could potentially protect against all circulating coronaviruses, including those known to cause the common cold.
Vaccines work by presenting the body with a molecule designed to help the immune system learn how to identify certain pathogens. These molecules are known as antigens, or antibody generators, and the big antigen our first wave of COVID-19 vaccines targeted is the infamous coronavirus spike protein.
Looking to the next generation of COVID-19 vaccines, researchers are looking beyond the spike protein, investigating alternative SARS-CoV-2 antigens. This new research started by studying a cohort of healthcare workers in the UK who strangely seemed to repeatedly test negative to SARS-CoV-2 despite high levels of exposure to the virus.
This cohort consistently tested negative to common antibody and PCR tests, however, the researchers did detect some blood markers suggestive of SARS-CoV-2 infection. An increase in immune T-cells specifically geared to target SARS-CoV-2 was detected, indicating the healthcare workers had potentially experienced a low-level infection but managed to somehow fight it off early.
“We know that some individuals remain uninfected despite having likely exposure to the virus,” explains Leo Swadling, lead author on the new study. “What we didn’t know is whether these individuals really did manage to completely avoid the virus or whether they naturally cleared the virus before it was detectable by routine tests. By intensively monitoring health care workers for signs of infection and immune responses, we identified a minority with this particular SARS-CoV-2 specific T cell response.”
The T-cells detected in the study were trained to target non-structural proteins that play a role in the early stages of the virus’s life cycle. These proteins are part of the virus’s replication transcription complex, more commonly referred to as replication proteins.
Most interestingly, these particular replication proteins are common to all coronaviruses. So the researchers hypothesize those individuals with strong T-cell responses targeting these proteins may have had recent exposure to a more innocuous common-cold-causing coronavirus.
“The regions of the virus that these T cells recognize are highly conserved amongst other members of the coronavirus family, such as those that cause common colds every year,” says Swadling. “Previous common cold exposure may have given these individuals a head start against the virus, tipping the balance in favor of their immune system eliminating the virus before it could start to replicate.”
These findings build on a growing hypothesis suggesting a cross-reactive immune response between SARS-CoV-2 and common coronaviruses. A recent Stanford University study speculated prior exposure to coronaviruses that cause the common cold may explain why some people experience incredibly mild or even asymptomatic forms of COVID-19.
But the most promising implication of this study is the speculation that these replication proteins could be incorporated as antigens into future COVID-19 vaccines. Mali Maini, senior author on the new study, says a vaccine inducing T-cells to target these replication proteins may offer protection against all current coronaviruses, including those that cause the common cold.
Maini also points out a future vaccine would include these newer antigens in addition to those spike protein antigens. This would create a complimentary system with antibodies trained to quickly recognize the spike protein and memory T-cells targeting these replication proteins.
“T cells recognizing the virus’s replication machinery would provide an additional layer of protection to that provided by the spike-focused immunity that is generated by the already highly efficacious current vaccines,” says Maini. “This dual-action vaccine would provide more flexibility against mutations, and because T cells can be incredibly long-lived, could also provide longer-lasting immunity. By expanding pre-existing T cells, such vaccines could help to stop the virus in its tracks at a very early stage.”
The new study was published in the journal Nature.
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Hybrid membrane edges flow batteries toward grid-scale energy storage
Nick Lavars November 11, 2021
Redox flow batteries hold great promise when it comes to grid-scale storage of renewable energy, because they can hold vast amounts of it in huge tanks at relatively low cost. Regulating the flow of energy in between these reservoirs sits a membrane, and scientists in China have come up with a new design for this key component that solves some shortcomings and takes the technology closer to realizing its potential.
Massive lithium-ion batteries like the one built by Tesla in South Australia are one way to store renewable energy, but these cost tens of millions of dollars to put together. Redox flow batteries, where energy is stored in liquid electrolytes within huge tanks, offer a cheaper alternative, and may also hold the energy for months at a time, as planned at the world's largest redox flow battery currently under development in Germany.
A popular chemistry for these types of batteries lean on the metal vanadium for the electrolyte, and the most common membrane material for these vanadium redox flow batteries is perfluorinated sulfonic acid (PFSA). One problem with this, however, is that vanadium ions tend to permeate the membrane and make the entire battery unstable, compromising its performance and shortening its lifespan.
Researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences have taken aim at this issue, through a hybrid material that fine tunes the function of the membrane. Tungsten trioxide nanoparticles were grown in-situ on the surface of very fine sheets of graphene oxide, a single-layered sheet of graphite oxide made through the oxidation of graphite.
These sheets were embedded into a novel PFSA membrane with a sandwich structure that had also been reinforced with a thin layer of polytetrafluoroethylene, the basis for Teflon. This saw the graphene oxide sheets act as a barrier to selectively reduce the permeation of vanadium ions, while the nanoparticles also served as active sites to promote the transport of protons, making for a high Coulumbic efficiency and high energy efficiency, of more than 98.1 percent and 88.9 percent, respectively.
The authors say this exceeds the efficiencies of commercially available membranes, while also addressing the stability issue. Altogether, the team says the experiments indicate the hybrid membrane is highly suited to vanadium redox flow batteries, but its potential mightn't end there. They note areas such as fuel cell technology and water filtration, which also rely on finely tuned membranes to allow selective passage of ions, could stand to benefit from the design as well.
The research was published in the journal Advanced Functional Materials.
The gold standard did not collapse. Governments abolished it in order to pave the way for inflation. The whole grim apparatus of oppression and coercion, policemen, customs guards, penal courts, prisons, in some countries even executioners, had to be put into action in order to destroy the gold standard.
Ludwig von Mises.
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