Baltic Dry Index. 1500 +25 Brent Crude 44.95
Spot Gold 2060
Coronavirus Cases 7/8/20 World 19,189,132
Deaths 716,621
John Kenneth Galbraith..
In an ever more desperate attempt to prevent becoming a
one-term President, President Trump took aim at Chinese tech firms and Canadian
aluminium. Both actions play well with President Trump’s core support, although
seen from London seem likely to prompt retaliatory action by China, though
they might think about it, probably not from Canada.
With new global Covid-19 cases surging past 19 million,
we only hit 18 million on August 2nd, it all seems to me to be
rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic after it hit its iceberg.
With 148 days left in the year, at this rate of increase
we will close out the year approaching 60 million Covid-19 cases, and that
assumes the pace of infection doesn’t increase with the onset of winter and flu
season in the northern hemisphere.
Unless we get control of the rapidly rising global
coronavirus crisis, the global economy will not be doing a “V” shaped recovery,
nor a “U” shaped recovery, or any other kind of recovery at all.
Below, did President Trump just unintentionally nuke
stocks?
Asian shares fall after Trump takes aim at China tech firms
August 7, 2020 /
12:58 AM
TOKYO
(Reuters) - Asian shares tumbled on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump
ratcheted up already-heightened tensions with Beijing by banning U.S.
transactions with China’s tech giant Tencent (0700.HK)
as well as ByteDance, the owner of video-sharing app TikTok.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS lost 1% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng .HSI fell 2%. Tencent, Asia's second-biggest company by market capitalisation, dropped 9.0%.
Mainland China's CSI 300 Index .CSI300 fell 1.3% while Japan's Nikkei .N225 slipped 0.6%. S&P500 futures ESc1 slid 0.5%.
Trump’s executive orders came as his administration said this week it was stepping up efforts to purge “untrusted” Chinese apps from U.S. digital networks. Tencent owns the popular WeChat app.
The announcement blew off any excitement from China’s trade data, which showed exports surged 7.2% from a year earlier, way above economists’ forecast of 0.2% fall.
More
Trump issues bans on China's TikTok, WeChat, stoking tension with Beijing
August 7, 2020 /
2:32 AM
WASHINGTON
(Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday unveiled sweeping bans on
U.S. transactions with China’s ByteDance, owner of video-sharing app TikTok,
and Tencent (0700.HK), operator of messenger app WeChat,
in a major escalation of tensions with Beijing.
The executive orders, which go into effect in 45 days, come after the
Trump administration said this week it was stepping up efforts to purge
“untrusted” Chinese apps from U.S. digital networks and called TikTok and
WeChat “significant threats.”
The hugely popular Tiktok has come under fire from U.S. lawmakers and
the administration over national security concerns surrounding data collection,
amid growing distrust between Washington and Beijing.
On Wednesday, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo expanded efforts on a
program dubbed “Clean Network” to prevent various Chinese apps as well as
Chinese telecoms firms from accessing sensitive information on U.S. citizens
and businesses.
James Lewis, a technology expert with Washington-based think tank Center
for Strategic and International Studies, said the orders appeared coordinated
with Pompeo’s announcement.
“This is the rupture in the digital world between the U.S. and China,”
he said. “Absolutely, China will retaliate.”
“On TikTok, Trump is clearly putting pressure on Bytedance to close the
deal,” Lewis said.
TikTok has 100 million users in the United States. While WeChat is not
popular in the country, the app, which has over 1 billion users, is ubiquitous
in China. It is also widely used by expat Chinese as a main platform for
communications with family and friends as well as a medium for various other
services such as games and e-commerce.
More
China warns Japan a TikTok ban would affect relations - TBS
August 7, 2020 /
5:12 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) - China has warned Japan that a ban on Beijing-based
ByteDance’s short-video app TikTok would have a “large impact” on bilateral
relations, broadcaster TBS reported on Friday, citing unnamed Japanese
government sources.
A group of lawmakers in Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party has
decided to push for steps to restrict the app over concerns data could end up
in the hands of the Chinese government, local media has reported.
Japan’s foreign ministry was not immediately available to comment. The
government has not said it is considering banning the app.
US slaps 10% levy on some Canadian aluminium
6 August 2020
US President Donald Trump has reimposed a 10% tariff on some Canadian
aluminium products, saying it was done to protect US industry.
Canada and the US reached a deal last year to lift tariffs on steel and
aluminium imports that had been imposed on grounds of "national
security".
The US had imposed a 25% tax on steel and 10% on aluminium on Canada in
2018.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau recently said he believes a new levy would
have "no justification".
Speaking in Ohio on Thursday, Mr Trump said the tariffs were necessary
to defend the US aluminium industry because Canadian producers had broken their
commitment to stop flooding the US market with a cheaper product.
The step was "absolutely necessary to defend our aluminium
industry," he said.
As part of a 2019 agreement lifting the measures, the US and Canada said
they would monitor imports and, if a country is determined to be buying in too
much, one of the other nations could request a consultation and potentially
reimpose tariffs.
A 10% tariff on imports of "non-alloyed unwrought aluminium from
Canada" was imposed on Thursday.
In
a statement on Mr Trump's presidential proclamation, the office of
the United States Trade Representative said that "imports from
Canada of the product that accounts for the largest share of Canada's aluminium
exports to the United States have surged above historical levels".
More
Loss-making Lufthansa forecasts no air travel take-off until 2024
August 6, 2020 /
6:12 AM
BERLIN (Reuters) - Lufthansa does not expect air travel
demand to return to pre-coronavirus crisis levels until at least 2024, as the
German airline posted a 1.7 billion euro (1.54 billion pounds) quarterly
operating loss. The collapse in demand for air travel due to the COVID-19 pandemic meant the airline carried 96% fewer passengers between April and June than a year earlier, leading to an 80% decline in second-quarter revenue to 1.9 billion euros ($2.25 billion).
Tentative signs of a European recovery now appear threatened by new localised outbreaks and restrictions, while long-haul flights such as to the United States - which are important for Lufthansa - remain largely grounded due to rising infections.
“We do not expect demand to return to pre-crisis levels before 2024,” Chief Executive Carsten Spohr said on Thursday.
Lufthansa’s (LHAG.DE) pessimistic view echoed a forecast last month by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) that it would take a year longer than previously expected for passenger traffic to return to pre-crisis levels..
Last month Lufthansa said it would cut 20% of its leadership positions and 1,000 administrative jobs as it seeks to repay a 9 billion euro state bailout and navigate deepening losses in the face of the pandemic.
The airline had 8,300 fewer employees by the end of June, due mainly to people leaving jobs at its catering business and non-German businesses, which include Swiss, Austrian Airlines and Brussels Airlines. It aims to reduce 22,000 full-time jobs.
More
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-lufthansa-results/loss-making-lufthansa-forecasts-no-air-travel-take-off-until-2024-idUKKCN2520FO
Bank of England sees slower economic recovery from COVID hit
August 6, 2020 /
12:03 AM
LONDON (Reuters) - The Bank of England said on Thursday
that Britain’s economy would probably take longer to get back to its
pre-pandemic size than it previously thought, even if the scale of the hit this
year might not be quite as bad.
The British central bank also warned of possible risks if it were to
take interest rates below zero.
As it announced unanimous votes by its policymakers to make no changes
to its key interest rate, which stands at just 0.1%, nor its huge bond-buying
programme, the BoE said the economy would not recover its pre-pandemic size
until the end of 2021.
In May, it had said it thought it might get back to its pre-crisis size
during the second half of 2021.
However, the BoE’s protections for 2020 are less grim than in May.
Unemployment is expected to peak at 7.5% at the end of this year, almost double
the most recent rate but lower than the BoE’s previous estimate of just under
10%.
The overall economy now looks on course for a 9.5% drop this year. That
would be the worst performance in 99 years but less severe than a 14% plunge in
the BoE’s May scenario, which would have been the worst in more than three
centuries.
---- The BoE said GDP was set to rebound by 9% next year, weaker than the 15% surge in May’s scenario, and there were bigger risks of a slower recovery than a faster one.
More
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-boe/bank-of-england-sees-slower-economic-recovery-from-covid-hit-idUKKCN25139G
If
all else fails, immortality can always be assured by spectacular error.
John Kenneth
Galbraith.
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
India reports record daily jump of 62,538 COVID-19 cases, takes total to 2.03 million
August 7, 2020 /
5:43 AM
BENGALURU (Reuters) - India on Friday reported a record daily jump of
62,538 coronavirus infections, taking the country’s total to 2.03 million, the
health ministry said.
The country became the third nation to record more than 2 million cases
of the novel coronavirus, behind the United States and Brazil, as infections
spread further to smaller towns and rural areas.
Infections are spreading to the countryside, where health infrastructure
is rickety.
Asymptomatic COVID-19 patients as contagious as those with symptoms
Aug. 6, 2020 /
12:37 PM
Aug. 6 (UPI) -- People with confirmed COVID-19 who don't have symptoms of the disease are as
contagious as those with symptoms and may need to be isolated to prevent spread
of the virus, according to a study published Thursday by JAMA Internal Medicine.Asymptomatic COVID-19 patients included in the analysis continued to test positive for the virus for up to 18 days after diagnosis, slightly less than the 20 days for those with symptoms, the researchers said.
Viral loads -- the amount of virus in an infected person -- in samples collected from the lower respiratory tract of patients also declined more slowly in those without symptoms than in those with them, they said.
Many asymptomatic patients also had evidence of "viral shedding" -- meaning they were contagious -- for at least 30 days after confirmed diagnosis, according to the researchers.
"Little is known about the infectiveness of asymptomatic patients," South Korean researchers wrote in the study. "Our findings ... nevertheless offer biological plausibility ... of transmission by asymptomatic people."
The findings were based on an analysis of 303 patients with confirmed COVID-19, 81% of whom didn't have symptoms at the time of diagnosis.
Patients included in the study ranged in age from 22 to 36, and 110 -- or roughly 36% -- were asymptomatic at the start of the analysis, the researchers said.
All of the patients were isolated in the COVID-19 ward of a South Korean hospital, and 21 -- about 19% -- of the asymptomatic patients developed symptoms while in isolation.
More
Coronavirus: Oxford study says hydroxychloroquine can not be 'ruled out' as preventative measure, study says
It's hoped the drug could prevent
the virus from developing or greatly reduce chances of hospitalisation if taken
early.
Thursday 6 August 2020 10:40, UK
Hydroxychloroquine should not be "ruled out" as
prevention for coronavirus, according to researchers studying its
effectiveness.US President Donald Trump has repeatedly suggested the antimalarial drug can fight COVID-19 despite mounting scientific evidence that it can not and may be harmful.
The nation's top infectious disease expert Dr Anthony Fauci highlighted clinical studies concluding the drug is not effective in treating COVID-19 - including ones commissioned by the World Health Organisation and the US National Institutes of Health (NIH).
While acknowledging the drug has been ruled out as a treatment, a
University of Oxford-led study is examining its effectiveness for prevention.
The Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit (MORU) has enrolled
40,000 frontline workers in Europe, Africa, Asia and South America who will
receive either chloroquine, hydroxychloroquine or a placebo.
It's hoped the double-blind, randomised study will reveal if
hydroxychloroquine can prevent the virus from developing or greatly reduce
chances of hospitalisation if taken soonafter infection.
One of the lead researchers of the 'Copcov' trial, Dr Will Schilling,
said the question on whether hydroxychloroquine "works or not in
prevention or very early treatment… remains unanswered".
"The benefits found in small post-exposure treatment trials,
although modest, could be very valuable if they were confirmed."
Professor Nick Day from the Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research
Unit, also guiding the study, was confident the study "will find out if
these drugs can prevent COVID-19 or not."
More
Australia's second-biggest city enters strict new coronavirus lockdown
August 6, 2020 /
3:42 AM
SYDNEY
(Reuters) - Australia’s second-biggest city Melbourne began the first day of a
six-week total lockdown on Thursday with the closure of most shops and
businesses raising new fears of food shortages, as authorities battle a second
wave of coronavirus infections.
Shops were shut and streets were deserted in the city of about 5 million
people, the capital of Victoria state, which reported 471 new COVID-19 cases
and eight deaths in the past 24 hours.
Australia has now recorded about 20,000 COVID-19 cases and 255
fatalities, still far fewer than many other developed nations.
But the Victorian outbreak threatens to spill into other states. New
South Wales reported 12 new coronavirus cases on Wednesday, taking the national
tally to 483. There were no cases reported in other states and territories
---- Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews urged Melbourne residents, who have already endured weeks of less severe lockdown, to stay calm amid a surge in demand at supermarkets.
“There’s no need for people to be trying to stockpile months and months
of food,” Andrews told reporters in Melbourne.
Abattoirs are one of the few businesses allowed to stay open in
Melbourne, though with a reduced workforce, under the “stage four” lockdown
which took effect at midnight on Wednesday.
“We have tried to get that balance between reducing the amount of
movement, therefore reducing the number of cases, but not compromising what you
need being on the supermarket shelves,” Andrews added.
Forecast national peak unemployment was revised upwards to about 10% due
to Victoria’s reimposition of restrictions, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said.
Counting those workers on Australia’s wage subsidy scheme, Morrison said
effective unemployment would be closer to 14%.
More
Hong Kong reports 95 new coronavirus cases as local transmissions stay high
August 6, 2020 /
9:52 AM
HONG KONG (Reuters) - Hong Kong reported 95 new coronavirus cases on
Thursday, of which 91 were locally transmitted, as authorities tried to contain
the virus, which has seen a resurgence in the global financial hub over the
past month.
Around 3,800 people have been infected in Hong Kong since late January,
44 of whom have died. On Wednesday, 85 new cases were reported.
The government on Thursday said it was extending the work from home
period for civil servants until Aug. 16.
Philippines suffers first recession in 29 years, braces for grim year on virus woes
August 6, 2020 /
4:07 AM
MANILA (Reuters) -
The Philippine economy fell into recession for the first time in 29 years with
a record slump in the second quarter, as strict lockdown measures ravaged
economic activity and prompted the government to sharply cut its GDP forecast
for 2020.
Official data showed on Thursday gross domestic product PHGDP=ECI
tumbling 16.5% in April-June from a year earlier - the biggest slump since
comparable GDP data was first recorded in 1981 - after falling a revised 0.7%
in the first quarter.
The drop was far bigger than the 9% contraction forecast in a Reuters
poll of economists and made the Philippines the second country in Southeast
Asia, after Singapore, to fall into recession amid the coronavirus pandemic.
Domestic demand and business investment were severely hit, data from the
Philippine Statistics Authority showed, while the government was now forecasting
the biggest annual drop in GDP since 1985 this year. It reimposed restrictions
in and around Manila this week to fight a rise in coronavirus cases.
“The Philippine economy crash-landed into recession with the Q2 GDP
meltdown showcasing the destructive impact of lockdowns on the
consumption-dependent economy,” said ING senior economist Nicholas Antonio
Mapa.
Seasonally adjusted GDP fell 15.2% in the second quarter from the first
three months of the year, while the government sharply downgraded its 2020
growth forecast.
The Philippines was among Asia’s fastest-growing economies before the
pandemic, but now the government expects its GDP to shrink 5.5% this year - the
biggest annual drop in 35 years - from a previous forecast for a 2.0-3.4% decline.
The government sees the economy rebounding in 2021 and 2022.
More
Some useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
Rt Covid-19
Covid19info.live
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.
SMIC founder says 'optimistic'
China can catch up with U.S. in semiconductors
August 5, 2020 /
8:46 AM
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - The founder of China’s largest chipmaker SMIC said
on Tuesday he was “optimistic” China could catch up with the United States in
the next generation of semiconductors but that U.S. efforts to contain its
technology sector could not be taken “lightly”.
Richard Chang, also the former CEO of Semiconductor Manufacturing
International Corp (SMIC), told a livestream forum that persistent research and
development as well as investment in new raw materials would enable China to
compete, according to an official transcript on Wednesday.
The comments come as Washington and Beijing continue to spar over Huawei
Technologies Co Ltd [HWT.UL], which has brought new urgency to China’s calls to
improve its domestic chip industry.
“I am optimistic and believe we can catch up,” Chang said in a rare
appearance at the forum, organized by China Securities.
He said that while China’s talent base was a “weakness” in the
short-term, the country had made “great progress” in manufacturing raw
materials and remained a leader in next generation super-fast 5G technology.
“If China maintains its leadership in 5G technology, it can remain far
ahead in wireless connectivity, artificial intelligence, and cloud computing,
because China already is strong in high-tech applications,” Chang said.
The United States and China have been fighting over the alleged national
risk posed by the products of Chinese tech giant Huawei for over a year, and
relations between the world’s two largest economies has deteriorated since the
outbreak of the coronavirus.
Chang said that during his time at SMIC in the early 2000’s, the U.S.
Department of Commerce had been generally supportive of Chinese tech companies,
but that now it sees them as its “biggest obstacle.”
The U.S. government has cited “national security” as grounds for its
restrictions on Huawei. The firm has denied holding any ties to the Chinese
government.
Chang founded SMIC with funding from
China’s government in 2000 as a domestic Chinese rival to Taiwan Semiconductor
Manufacturing Corporation. He resigned in 2009.
Another
weekend, and what fiendishly clever new China bashing scheme will re-election
Team Trump think up over the weekend? Taxing members of the CCP? Charging China
rent on their buildings, docks and airports in the South China Sea? Imposing a
“China Virus” levy on China’s GDP?
Of
course, the devil will be in the details, as collecting might prove a little
tricky, to say the least. Have a great weekend everyone. Where will gold close
next Friday?
In politics... never retreat, never retract... never admit a
mistake.
Napoleon Bonaparte
The Monthly Coppock Indicators
finished July
DJIA: 26,428 -1 Up. NASDAQ: 10,745 +243 Up. SP500:
3,271 +89 Up.
The NASDAQ
has remained up. The DJIA and SP500 have turned up. With stock mania running
fueled by trillions of central bankster new fiat money programs, I would not
rely on the indicators.
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