Baltic Dry Index. 1595 +18 Brent Crude 44.80
Spot Gold 1945
Emperor Hirohito, Accepting the Potsdam Declaration, Radio Broadcast.
Transmitted by Domei and Recorded by the Federal Communications Commission, 14 August 1945
To our good and loyal subjects:
After pondering deeply the general trends of the world and the actual
conditions obtaining in our empire today, we have decided to effect a
settlement of the present situation by resorting to an extraordinary measure.
We have ordered our Government to
communicate to the Governments of the United States, Great Britain, China and
the Soviet Union that our empire accepts the provisions of their joint
declaration.
To strive for the common prosperity and
happiness of all nations as well as the security and well-being of our subjects
is the solemn obligation which has been handed down by our imperial ancestors
and which we lay close to the heart.
Indeed, we declared war on America and
Britain out of our sincere desire to insure Japan's self-preservation and the
stabilization of East Asia, it being far from our thought either to infringe
upon the sovereignty of other nations or to embark upon territorial
aggrandizement.
But now the war has lasted for nearly
four years. Despite the best that has been done by everyone--the gallant
fighting of our military and naval forces, the diligence and assiduity of out
servants of the State and the devoted service of our 100,000,000 people--the
war situation has developed not necessarily to Japan's advantage, while the
general trends of the world have all turned against her interest.
More
Column: Debt mountain meets population cliff
August 14, 2020 / 7:38 AM
LONDON (Reuters) - Hopes the world economy
can grow itself out of the mountain of debt being accumulated during this
year’s pandemic shock may have failed to factor in the uncomfortable prospect
of a peaking population within the next 50 years.
The sweeping
COVID-19 pandemic, related lockdowns and resulting historic recessions have
forced governments and companies around the world to borrow to bridge the gap,
and left central banks with little choice but to keep debt servicing levels
affordable.
The
International Monetary Fund in June estimated public debt as a share of gross
domestic product in advanced economies on aggregate will now shoot to record
highs above 130% this year and next, topping levels seen shortly after World
War Two.
Even by the
end of the first quarter of 2020, the pandemic-related scramble for credit had
pushed total government, corporate and household debt more than 10 percentage
points higher to a record 331% of GDP, or some $258 trillion, according to data
published by the Institute of International Finance. The figure for so-called
“mature markets” is as high as 392%.
The IIF also
points out that due to COVID-19-related lockdowns corporate debt has soared,
with $4.6 trillion of bonds sold in the second quarter alone compared with
quarterly averages last year of $2.8 trillion.
With the
United States Treasury conducting record sized 10- and 30-year bond auctions
this week alone, no one’s in any doubt there is a lot of debt piling up.
The U.S.
Congressional Budget Office in May updated its long-range forecasts for
government debt held by the public and reckoned that at $116 trillion by 2050,
the public debt ratio was set to more double to 180% by then.
Deutsche
Bank meanwhile notes that the “central scenario” of Britain’s official fiscal
watchdog shows a 2070 government debt/GDP ratio of 418%. During the austerity
drive just five years ago, that same 2070 forecast was just 87%.
“It’s almost
inconceivable that we’ll reach that point, so something will likely have to
give,” said Deutsche strategist Jim Reid, opining on options from cutbacks to
age-related pension and healthcare costs, to higher taxes, faster inflation,
central bank bond buying or even - whisper it - default.
“Economic
growth could bail us out but this will be tough given demographics.”
---- Populations in some 23 of the 195 countries in the study - including Japan, Spain, Portugal, Thailand and Ukraine - are expected to halve by the end of the century and China could see a drop of 48%. Another 33 countries are seen declining by between 25% and 50%. Both China and India should expect to see their numbers peak before 2050.
Add in
ageing in countries forecast to see 25% population declines and the ratio of
those over 80 to those under 15 is expected to balloon to 1.5 from just 0.16
now.
“These
population shifts have economic and fiscal consequences that will be extremely
challenging,” the study said. “All other things being equal, the decline in the
numbers of working-aged adults alone will reduce GDP growth rates.”
More
Euro zone trade surplus surges as imports drop, GDP and employment post record falls
August 14, 2020 / 10:10 AM
The bloc
also suffered the biggest drop ever recorded in employment in the second
quarter, the European Union’s statistics agency Eurostat said.
The agency
also confirmed the record drop in the bloc’s gross domestic product last
quarter, which fell by 12.1% compared with the first three months of the year.
Eurostat
said on Friday the June trade surplus was wider than that posted a year earlier
when the bloc had a positive balance of 19.4 billion euros. The reading also
largely beat market expectations of a 12.6 billion euros surplus.
The surplus
was more than twice as big as that recorded in May when the bloc had a positive
balance of 9.4 billion euros.
The year-on-year
improvement was caused by a 12.2% drop of imports, which more than offset the
10% fall in exports, Eurostat estimates showed.
From January
to June, the bloc’s exports to the rest of the world fell by 12.7% to about 1
trillion euros compared with the same period in 2019. Imports dropped by 12.9%
to 929 billion euros. Trade among euro zone countries was down by 13.6% to 869
billion euros.
The 19
countries of the currency bloc also traded much less among themselves. In June
they exchanged goods worth 150.6 billion euros, down by 7.3% compared with the
same month last year.
The larger
EU, which is composed of 27 states, posted a 20.7 billion euros surplus in
June, also caused by a bigger drop in imports than exports.
Among its
top three trading partners, the EU reduced trade mostly with Britain, which
left the EU on Jan. 31.
For
January-June, exports to Britain fell by 21.5% from the same period last year,
while imports dropped 17.5%, leaving the EU with a smaller trade surplus of
46.7 billion euros compared with 64.5 billion euros in the same period of last
year.
Trade with
the United States also fell significantly while the drop of exchanges with
China was small.
Tropical Storm Kyle joins Josephine in Atlantic Basin
Aug. 14, 2020 / 5:58 PM
Tropical
Storm Kyle formed Friday afternoon at 5 p.m. EDT, becoming the latest named
feature in a growing list of record-breaking storms for the 2020 Atlantic
hurricane season.
Kyle formed
off the Eastern coast of the United States, about 185 miles southeast of
Atlantic City, N.J. The storm is packing maximum sustained winds of 40 mph as
it moves east-northeast, away from land, at 17 mph.
Meteorologists
began watching what the National Hurricane Center had dubbed Invest 96L earlier
in the week, which was born from showers and thunderstorms over the
southeastern United States.
Kyle is moving away from the East
Coast, so there's no threat of a landfall from the tropical storm. However,
the rapidly organizing and strengthening system has already been playing a
role in raising surf along the mid-Atlantic coast and is likely to do the
same in southeastern New England this weekend.
---- Additional threats from the tropics will warrant a close eye from forecasters into the next week.
"In
addition for the potential for a tropical system to develop from the train of
tropical disturbances, known as tropical waves, moving westward from Africa,
we will be keeping an eye on the Gulf of Mexico next week," Kottlowski
said.
Following
the name Kyle, the "L" storm for this year in the Atlantic is
Laura. The early-season formation record for the "L" storm is Luis
set on Aug. 29, 1995.
A feature
similar to the disturbance along the Atlantic coast could set up over the
Gulf of Mexico next week.
"During
the latter part of next week, a tropical disturbance could evolve over the
western and northwest part of the Gulf of Mexico," added Kottlowski.
More
|
To a Mouse
But Mousie, thou art no thy-lane,
In proving foresight may be vain:
The best laid schemes o’ Mice an’ Men
Gang aft agley,
An’ lea’e us nought but grief an’ pain,
For promis’d joy!
Robert Burns. On
Turning her up in her Nest, with the Plough, November 1785.
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneededU.S., Canada, Mexico extend border restrictions during pandemic
Aug. 14, 2020 / 6:33 PM
Aug. 14 (UPI) -- The United States announced Friday that it's extending its border
closures with Canada and Mexico for another month.Chad Wolf, the acting secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, made the announcement on Twitter.
"We continue to work with our Canadian and Mexican partners to slow the spread of #COVID19. Accordingly, we have agreed to extend the limitation of non-essential travel at our shared land ports of entry through September 21," he said.
The North American countries closed their respective borders to non-essential travelers -- truck drivers and healthcare workers are allowed to cross -- in March to curb the spread of COVID-19.
More
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2020/08/14/US-Canada-Mexico-extend-border-restrictions-during-pandemic/2981597439119/
New Zealand Infections Up; China Supermarket Cases: Virus Update
Bloomberg News
August 15, 2020, 12:10 AM GMT+1 Updated on August 15, 2020,
4:41 AM GMT+1
New Zealand reported seven new virus cases on Saturday,
while infections in Australia’s Victoria state continued to trend lower. A
supermarket worker in China’s Shenzhen and five others tested positive, forcing
the closure of some stores.South Korean case numbers climbed Saturday, raising the specter of a new wave of infections. California became the first state to top 600,000 confirmed infections, while U.S. cases increased by 1% on the day, matching the average daily increase over the past week.
More than a third of Americans in a survey said they wouldn’t get vaccinated. Paris expanded its outdoor mask-wearing requirement, Spain closed nightclubs and Italy reported the most new infections since May.
Key Developments:
- Global Tracker: Global cases top 21 million; deaths pass 762,000
- Trump announced deal with McKesson Corp. for vaccine distribution
- Cruise ship inquiry blasts Australian health officials
- Virus vaccine rush leaves little recourse for anyone it harms
- Forced isolation may be the only way to stop resurgence of virus
- A fake shot may be your ticket to the front of the vaccine line
The emergence of local infections in the city comes just days after traces of the highly infectious pathogen was detected on frozen chicken wings imported from Brazil. It also follows an outbreak in the western region of Xinjiang that now appears to have waned.
More.
Europe’s Summer Unravels With Covid Spikes and Travel Chaos
Rodney Jefferson 14 August 2020
(Bloomberg) -- If this summer was supposed to offer hope
that coronavirus was under control in Europe, spikes in cases across the
continent and ensuing travel chaos have given governments a worrying reality
check.
From France to Ukraine, the number of
positive tests for Covid-19 is rising sharply as more people seek vacations and
after lockdown measures were eased to allow citizens to congregate. Germany
reported the most new cases since May, while France said the situation is
worsening, particularly in the cities of Paris and Marseille. Greece is also
seeing the highest daily increase in infections since the start of the
pandemic.
The British government added France and the Netherlands to a list of countries from where people must quarantine for 14 days on arrival in the U.K. Travel stocks slumped. In Eastern Europe, which had been hit less hard, some countries approached near record number of daily cases.
French Health Agency chief Jerome Salomon said large family reunions, such as weddings, and work places are prevalent places of infection. “One can only be worried as hundreds of new people are hospitalized,” Salomon told France Inter. He urged people to socially distance to avoid the crisis of March and April that “no one wants to go through again.”
It was always going to be a gamble as countries sought to open up their economies in an attempt to mitigate the unfolding financial collapse. Closing businesses and ordering people to stay at home again is something political leaders remain reluctant to do given the dark economic forecast and millions of jobs at risk, particularly in tourism.
More
Some useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
Rt Covid-19
Covid19info.live
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.
New advance in superconductors with 'twist' in rhombohedral graphite
Date: August 12, 2020
Source: University of Manchester
Summary: An international research team
has revealed a nanomaterial that mirrors the 'magic angle' effect originally
found in a complex human-made structure known as twisted bilayer graphene -- a
key area of study in physics in recent years.
An
international research team led by The University of Manchester has revealed a
nanomaterial that mirrors the "magic angle" effect originally found
in a complex human-made structure known as twisted bilayer graphene -- a key
area of study in physics in recent years.
The new
research shows that the special topology of rhombohedral graphite effectively
provides an inbuilt "twist" and therefore offers an alternative
medium to study potentially game-changing effects like superconductivity.
"It is an interesting alternative to highly popular studies of magic-angle
graphene" said graphene pioneer Professor Sir Andre Geim, a co-author of
the study.
The team,
led by Artem Mishchenko, Professor of Condensed Matter Physics at The
University of Manchester published its findings in the journal Nature on
12 August 2020.
"Rhombohedral
graphite can help to better understand materials in which strong electronic
correlations are important -- such as heavy-fermion compounds and
high-temperature superconductors," said Professor Mishchenko.
A previous
step-forward in two-dimensional materials research was the curious behaviour
that stacking one sheet of graphene atop one another and twisting it to a
'magic angle' changed the bilayer's properties, turning it into a
superconductor.
Professor
Mishchenko and his colleagues have now observed the emergence of strong
electron-electron interactions in a weakly stable rhombohedral form of graphite
-- the form in which graphene layers stack slightly differently compared to
stable hexagonal form.
Interactions
in twisted bilayer graphene are exceptionally sensitive to the twist angle.
Tiny deviations of about 0.1 degree from the exact magic angle strongly supress
interactions. It is extremely difficult to make devices with the required
accuracy and, especially, find sufficiently uniform ones to study the exciting
physics involved. The newly published findings on rhombohedral graphite has now
opened an alternative route to accurately making superconductor devices.
Graphite, a
carbon material made up of stacked graphene layers, has two stable forms:
hexagonal and rhombohedral. The former is more stable, and has thus been
extensively studied, while the latter is less so.
More
This weekend’s musical diversion. Vivaldi in major key again, reworking an earlier work. Major keys work so much better, at least to my ears.
Concerto for Violin, Strings and B.C. in B-flat major RV 365 [late version]:
The
Covid-19 situation has developed not necessarily to anyone's advantage.
The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished July
DJIA: 26,428 -1 Up. NASDAQ: 10,745 +243
Up. SP500: 3,271 +89 Up.
The NASDAQ has remained up. The DJIA and SP500 have turned up. With
stock mania running fueled by trillions of central bankster new fiat money
programs, I would not rely on the indicators.
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