Baltic Dry Index. 1350 +02 Brent Crude 43.30
Spot Gold 1976
Experience is simply the name we give our mistakes.
Oscar Wilde
This weekend we focus on the
USA, where ratings agency Fitch downgraded its ratings outlook on the USA from “stable”
to “negative.”
Given all the massive
trillions of new fiat money creation going on in America, with trillions more
to come forever, I’m surprised Fitch left the USA’s ranking at triple-A. But
given the Presidential election is just about three months away, it was
probably too hot a potato to handle a downgrade until later in the year.
The gold market gave its own
rating on America’s prospects, or specifically, what it thinks of all the endless
trillions of new fiat money creation.
U.S. Gets a Debt Warning From Fitch as Stimulus Battle Rages
Fitch Ratings revised its outlook on the country’s credit score to negative from stable, citing a “deterioration in the U.S. public finances and the absence of a credible fiscal consolidation plan.” The country’s ranking remains AAA.
“High fiscal deficits and debt were already on a rising medium-term path even before the onset of the huge economic shock precipitated by the coronavirus,” Fitch said. “They have started to erode the traditional credit strengths of the U.S.”
Unemployment has skyrocketed and the U.S. economy just notched up its worst quarter on record, with pandemic-related shutdowns helping drive an annualized gross domestic product contraction of 32.9% in the three-month period through June. And with infections still spreading rapidly in many states, the virus’s damaging impact on output looks set to continue.
Support from Congress has buoyed the economy in recent months, but further action will be critical in determining the path toward recovery. Crucial lifelines for jobless workers, like an extra $600 in weekly unemployment benefits, are expiring, and lawmakers have made little progress on agreeing to another stimulus package.
But while further measures -- if settled on -- could help support the economy, they would also likely add to the nation’s debt pile and worsen the fiscal deficits that caused Fitch additional concern. There is, however, no sign yet of a deal as upcoming elections for the presidency and Congress help sharpen partisan divisions.
General government debt is expected to exceed 130% of GDP by 2021, Fitch said, noting that the U.S. had the highest government debt of any AAA rated sovereign heading into the current crisis.
Gold Sets Fresh Record Heading for Best Month in Four Years
By Elena Mazneva and Justina Vasquez
July 31, 2020, 4:50 AM GMT+1 Updated on July 31, 2020,
7:59 PM GMT+1
Gold surged to a fresh record, fueled by dollar
weakness and low interest rates. Silver headed for its best month since
1979.Spot bullion is up more than 10% in July, heading for its best month since 2016 as U.S. real yields lingered near record lows. While the ferocity of rallies in both gold and silver cooled in the middle of the week, most market watchers predict there may be more gains ahead.
Both metals have added about 30% this year, with gold and silver exchange-traded funds boosting holdings to a record, as concern about the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic fuels demand for havens. The Federal Reserve this week repeated a vow to use all its tools to support the U.S. economy, with governments and central banks worldwide already unleashing vast amounts of stimulus to shore up growth.
“After
a brief consolidation period post-FOMC, speculation around President Trump’s
call to delay the election shook the market and saw the yellow metal recover,”
TD Securities strategists including Bart Melek said in a research note. “In
addition to the sudden haven-type flows, poor economic data across the U.S. and
Europe keep the hopes for further stimulus high, the dollar weak and real rates
on a firm downtrend.”
Adding
to investors’ concerns, President Donald Trump floated the idea of postponing the
November election, after dismal economic data Thursday. The
European GDP numbers also
show an unprecedented slump in the second quarter. Yet, Chinese manufacturing
figures indicate continued upward momentum in the recovery,
with silver getting added support from bets on stronger industrial demand amid
concerns over supplies.
----Gold traders on Thursday declared their intent to deliver 3.3 million ounces against the August Comex contract, the largest daily delivery notice in bourse data going back to 1994.
With more stimulus on the horizon, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has said that gold is the currency of last resort amid an inflation threat to the dollar. The bank forecasts a rally to $2,300. Bank of America Corp. reiterated Friday that prices could soar to as high as $3,000, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. sees the rally losing steam later this year.
More
Negotiators fail to agree on COVID-19 relief as Congress adjourns
July 31, 2020 / 8:41 AM / Updated July 31,
2020 at 7:13 PM
July 31 (UPI) -- Congress adjourned for the weekend Friday without coming to an
agreement on a new coronavirus relief bill as key stimulus benefits expired.House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senate Democratic leader Charles Schumer, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and White House chief of staff Mark Meadows resumed talks earlier in the day, but failed to agree on a deal. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell was not part of the negotiations, as he agreed to let President Donald Trump's deputies represent the Senate proposals.
Meadows criticized Democrats for rejecting Trump's proposal of a short-term stopgap measure to extend key elements of previous relief bills -- a $600-per-week unemployment enhancement and eviction protections.
"What we're seeing is politics as usual from Democrats up on Capitol Hill," Meadows said. "The Democrats believe that they have all the cards on their side, and they're willing to play those cards at the expense of those that are hurting."
Pelosi said such stopgap measures are only useful for a short-term extension when two sides are close to an agreement.
"A week would be a time for that -- if we had a bill. What are we going to do in a week?" she asked. "They don't even have the votes for it in the Senate."
One of the main focuses of the legislation is an enhanced federal unemployment benefit that had paid out-of-work Americans an extra $600 each week, which was part of the first relief package, the CARES Act, in March.
The federal benefit ran out last week but officially expired Friday.
Before talks broke down late Thursday, lawmakers on both sides unsuccessfully attempted to pass their own proposals to extend the benefit and other measures.
More
Hurricane Isaias lashes Bahamas on path to virus-hit Florida
Issued
on:
Hurricane Isaias
lashed the Bahamas Friday as it churned toward Florida, bringing new dangers to
a US state in the throes of an unrelenting coronavirus outbreak.
The category
one storm, packing winds of 80 miles (129 kilometers) an hour, gained strength
Thursday night after sweeping over the Dominican Republic.
As of 1200
GMT, it was an expansive storm, moving northwest at a speed of 17 mph, kicking
up heavy squalls and whipping the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos
island chains with strong winds, the Miami-based National Hurricane Center
said.
"Some
strengthening is possible today, and Isaias is expected to remain a hurricane
for the next few days," it said.
The eye of
the storm was expected to pass over southeastern Bahamas sometime during the
day Friday and reach the central Bahamas during the night.
On its
current path, it should be in the northwestern Bahamas by Saturday and near or
east of Florida on Sunday, the forecasters said.
Hurricane
warnings were up across the low-lying Bahamas while eastern Florida was under a
tropical storm watch.
---- In pandemic-hit Florida, meanwhile, residents braced for what could be a Category 2 hurricane, with winds of up to 95 mph, by the time Isaias arrives.
Its arrival
would play havoc in a state whose hospitals are flooded with a surge of
COVID-19 cases.
"Make
sure you have a plan, and have seven days' worth of food, water and
medicine," Florida governor Ron DeSantis urged Floridians on Thursday.
Carlos
Gimenez, the mayor of Miami-Dade county, offered assurances that preparations
were under way in case the storm hits the populous southern tip of the
peninsula.
"We
have 20 evacuation centers on standby. They're not open and we will have them
set up with COVID-19 safety measures," he told a news conference.
The state's
coronavirus testing centers, meanwhile, were closed Thursday and won't reopen
until they get the all-clear.
More
In coronavirus news, it was
bleak news in July in America, matching bleak news just about everywhere else. Global
cases are rapidly closing in on 18 million, with each additional million now
down to 3 to 4 days.
The global Covid-19 pandemic is
far from over, and with a hurricane headed towards hard hit Florida, things
could get a whole lot worse if the virus gets into any of the evacuation
centres.
At present the hurricane is
not certain to hit Florida and hopefully will remain out at sea, giving Florida
a break.
In other coronavirus news
there was a setback for the drug Remdesivir.
U.S. records over 25,000 coronavirus deaths in July
July 31, 2020 / 11:03 AM
(Reuters) -
U.S. coronavirus deaths rose by over 25,000 in July and cases doubled in 19
states during the month, according to a Reuters tally, dealing a crushing blow
to hopes of quickly reopening the economy.
The United
States recorded 1.87 million new cases in July, bringing total infections to
4.5 million, for an increase of 69%. Deaths in July rose 20% to nearly 154,000
total.
The biggest
increases in July were in Florida, with over 310,000 new cases, followed by
California and Texas with about 260,000 each. All three states saw cases double
in June.
Cases also
more than doubled in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Hawaii,
Idaho, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, Oklahoma, Oregon, South
Carolina, Tennessee and West Virginia, according to the tally.
Connecticut,
Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York had the lowest increases, with cases
rising 8% or less.
The United
States shattered single-day global records when it reported over 77,000 new
cases on July 16. During July, 33 out of the 50 U.S. states had one-day record
increases in cases and 19 set records for their rise in deaths in 24 hours,
according to a Reuters tally.
After a rapid acceleration in cases, the outbreak appears to be stabilizing in Arizona, Florida and Texas. Health officials are now concerned the outbreak has migrated to the Midwest from summer travel.
(Open tmsnrt.rs/2WTOZDR in an external browser for a Reuters interactive graphic)
The news that more states could be hard hit by the virus comes a day after the U.S. reported that gross domestic product collapsed at a 32.9% annualized rate in the second quarter, the nation’s worst economic performance since the Great Depression.
Remdesivir Gets Lukewarm Endorsement From Experts in Covid Fight
By Jade Wilson
July 31, 2020, 12:01 AM GMT+1
Gilead Sciences Inc.’s remdesivir is worth
prescribing for patients with severe Covid-19 though evidence of its benefits
remains inconclusive, according to a panel of international experts convened by
the British Medical Journal.The effectiveness of most interventions with remdesivir is uncertain because most of the trials so far have been small and have limitations, the authors said in a review for the journal.
The antiviral medication has received worldwide attention as a potential treatment for severe Covid-19 and is already being used in clinical practice. The European Commission signed a 63 million-euro ($74 million) contract with Gilead this week for batches of the drug to be made available in European Union countries from early August.
Remdesivir may be effective in reducing recovery time in patients with severe Covid-19, though more trials are needed to confirm this, the experts said. The drug probably has no important effect on the need for mechanical ventilation and may have little or no effect on the length of hospital stay.
Gilead said in June that it will charge U.S. hospitals roughly $3,120 for a course of treatment of remdesivir for most patients. The drug received an emergency use authorization from U.S. regulators in May, after a big trial found it sped recovery by about four days in hospitalized patients.
The authors said use of a costly drug like remdesivir may divert funds, time, attention and workforce away from other potentially worthwhile treatments. They suggested future research should focus on areas such as optimal dose of the drug, duration of therapy, and whether there are specific groups of patients most likely to benefit.
Yale epidemiologist: Dr. Fauci running 'misinformation campaign' against hydroxychloroquine
Accuses prominent doctor of harboring 'total anti-science viewpoint.'Updated: July 30, 2020
Dr. Harvey
Risch, a noted Yale epidemiologist, has accused White House coronavirus
task force member Dr. Anthony Fauci of waging a "misinformation campaign"
against the drug hydroxychloroquine, claiming the medication has shown
consistently encouraging results in treating COVID-19 when used properly.
Hydroxychloroquine
has been at the center of a protracted political debate since March, when
President Trump cited the drug as a promising possible treatment for the novel
coronavirus. HCQ has long been used by doctors to treat malaria along with
other syndromes such as arthritis and lupus.
The World Health Organization
lists it as an essential medicine, while nearly five million Americans hold
prescriptions for it.
Risch, however, is sharply criticizing Fauci's approach to evaluating the drug's effectiveness, arguing that repeated trials and tests have shown that it is markedly effective at treating COVID-19 so long as it is administered properly.
Risch, a professor of epidemiology and the director of Yale's Molecular Cancer Epidemiology Laboratory, has been pushing for the drug's use in the fight against the coronavirus for months. Last week in a Newsweek op-ed he called HCQ "the key to defeating COVID-19," claiming its use — particularly when administered with one of two antibiotics and the nutritional supplement zinc — has been "shown to be highly effective" in treating high-risk coronavirus patients.
More
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/yale-epidemiologist-accuses-fauci-running-disinformation-campaign
India's coronavirus cases rise by a daily record of 55,078
July 31, 2020 / 7:23 AM
BENGALURU
(Reuters) - India reported another record surge in daily COVID-19 cases on
Friday, taking the total to 1.64 million, as the government further eases virus
curbs in a bid to resuscitate the economy, while also trying to increase
testing.
Infections
jumped by 55,078 in the past 24 hours, while the death toll rose by 779 to
35,747, the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare said on its website.
The ministry
also said it aimed to raise the country’s capacity to 1 million coronavirus
tests per day in the medium term, from a record 600,000 on Friday.
The federal
government this week announced the reopening of yoga institutes and gymnasiums,
and removed restrictions on the movement of people and goods.
Some useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
Rt Covid-19
Covid19info.live
Kyrie - Missa Papae Marcelli - Palestrina
Some cause happiness wherever they go; others whenever they go.
Oscar Wilde.
The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished July
DJIA: 26,428 -1 Up. NASDAQ: 10,745 +243
Up. SP500: 3,271 +89 Up.
The NASDAQ has remained up. The DJIA and SP500 have turned up. With stock
mania running fueled by trillions of central bankster new fiat money programs,
I would not rely on the indicators.
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