Baltic Dry Index. 1595 +18 Brent Crude 45.16
Spot Gold 1944
Coronavirus Cases 17/8/20 World 21,812,240
Deaths 777,764
Jamie Dimon,
CEO of JP Morgan Bank.
The USA v
China trade talks were postponed indefinitely, with no reason given, yawn.
Japan, the world’s third-largest economy shrank an
annualised 27.8% in April-June, yawn. Thailand’s economy followed along, yawn.
President Donald Trump said on Saturday he could exert pressure [extort money from] on more Chinese companies such as technology giant Alibaba after he moved to ban TikTok, yawn.
The USA election season starts off today with a “virtual” Democratic convention, apparently made for US tv consumption, yawn.
But in the Asian
stock casinos, no one noticed. Buy more.
Asia shares move ahead led by China gains
August 17, 2020
/ 1:32 AM
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian shares firmed toward recent peaks on Monday as
Chinese markets swung higher, while investors waited to see if the recent
sell-off in longer-dated U.S. Treasuries would extend and maybe take some
pressure off the beleaguered dollar.
Chinese blue chips .CSI300 led the way with gains of 2.0%, with the country's central bank providing more medium term loans to the financial system.
Japan's Nikkei .N225 dipped 0.6% after touching a six-month peak on Friday, as the country suffered its biggest economic contraction on record in the second quarter.
E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 ESc1 firmed 0.39% to be just below the record close of 3,386.15.
The U.S. second-quarter earnings season wraps up with the major retailers reporting this week, including Walmart Inc (WMT.N), Home Depot Inc (HD.N) and Kohls Corp (KSS.N).
Politics will be a feature as the Democratic National Convention kicks off the 2020 presidential election season.
---- U.S. crude oil shipments to China will rise sharply in coming weeks, as the world’s two top economies gear up to review their January deal after a prolonged trade war.
News that the scheduled review of the U.S.-China Phase-One trade deal
over the weekend had been postponed indefinitely didn’t elicit much of a
reaction.
Morehttps://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-markets/asia-shares-move-ahead-led-by-china-gains-idUKKCN25D018
Japan's economy shrinks at record pace as pandemic wipes out 'Abenomics' gains
August 17, 2020 /
12:57 AM
TOKYO
(Reuters) - Japan was hit by its biggest economic contraction on record in the
second quarter as the coronavirus pandemic crushed consumption and exports,
keeping policymakers under pressure for bolder action to prevent a deeper
recession.
The third straight quarter of declines knocked the size of real gross
domestic product (GDP) to decade-low levels, wiping out the benefits brought by
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics” stimulus policies deployed in late
2012.
While the economy is emerging from the doldrums after lockdowns were
lifted in late May, many analysts expect any rebound in the current quarter to
be modest as a renewed rise in infections keep consumers’ purse-strings tight.
“The big decline can be explained by the decrease in consumption and
exports,” said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research
Institute.
“I expect growth to turn positive in the July-September quarter. But
globally, the rebound is sluggish everywhere except for China.”
The world’s third-largest economy shrank an annualised 27.8% in
April-June, government data showed on Monday, marking the biggest decline since
comparable data became available in 1980 and slightly bigger than a median
market forecast for a 27.2% drop.
While the contraction was smaller than a 32.9% decrease in the United
States, it was much bigger than a 17.8% fall Japan suffered in the first
quarter of 2009, when the collapse of Lehman Brothers jolted global financial
markets.
The size of Japan’s real GDP shrank to 485 trillion yen, the lowest
since April-June 2011, when Japan was still suffering from two decades of
deflation and economic stagnation.
More
Thai economy sees biggest contraction since Asian financial crisis in second-quarter
August 17, 2020 /
3:53 AM
BANGKOK
(Reuters) - Thailand’s economy saw its biggest annual contraction in 22 years
and a record quarterly fall in the April-June period, as the coronavirus
pandemic and restriction measures hit tourism, exports and domestic activity,
prompting an outlook downgrade.
Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, which is heavily reliant on
tourism and exports, shrank 12.2% in the second quarter from a year earlier,
the worst contraction since the Asian financial crisis in 1998, data from the
state planning agency showed.
But that was better than a 13.3% slump seen in a Reuters poll, and
compared with a downwardly revised 2.0% fall in the March quarter.
On a quarterly basis, the economy shrank a seasonally adjusted 9.7%, the
deepest on record, but better than the 11.4% drop forecast by economists.
The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) cut its
gross domestic product forecast for 2020. It now expects Thailand’s economy to
shrink by 7.3%-7.8% this year, having previously forecast a 5%-6% contraction.
“Today’s economic release underscores the collapse of aggregate demand,
both externally and internally,” said Kobsidthi Silpachai, head of capital
markets research of Kasikornbank.
“Recovery will be lengthy as the shock to the demand and supply side has
been the most severe in living memory,” he said.
More
Trump says looking at pressuring other Chinese companies after Bytedance
August 15, 2020
/ 11:36 PM
BEDMINSTER, N.J. (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump
said on Saturday he could exert pressure on more Chinese companies such as
technology giant Alibaba (BABA.N)
after he moved to ban TikTok. Asked at a news conference whether there were other particular China-owned companies he was considering a ban on, such as Alibaba, Trump replied: “Well, we’re looking at other things, yes.”
Trump has been piling pressure on Chinese-owned companies, such as by vowing to ban short-video app TikTok from the United States. The United States ordered its Chinese owner ByteDance on Friday to divest the U.S. operations of TikTok within 90 days, the latest effort to ramp up pressure over concerns about the safety of the personal data it handles.
Trump, who has made changing the U.S.-China trade relationship a central theme of his presidency, has been sharply critical of China while also praising its purchases of agriculture products such as soybeans and corn as part of a trade agreement reached late last year.
We are living in the age of the universal Magic Money Tree. We will all
get filthy rich by electronically printing our way to unimagined prosperity.
But not all seem headed for prosperity, and sooner or later, someone has
to pay the piper.
National Debt To Surpass $78 Trillion By 2028: What It Means For Americans
Aug 14, 2020,04:42pm EDT
The coronavirus pandemic pushed the government into the proverbial corner,
prompting it to borrow heavily from the future to ward off a serious threat
today. Without this intervention, the U.S. economy would be in a much worse
recession or possibly even a depression. Even though borrowing excessively may
have been the lesser of two evils, the burgeoning debt will have ramifications
in the future. With the debt approaching $27 trillion, and projected to rise to
$78 trillion by 2028, it will present significant challenges. How has the
national debt changed during past presidential administrations? How will a
Biden or Trump win in November impact the future? How will the current fiscal
crisis affect future taxation?
National Debt: An Historical Perspective
The national debt has been a routine part of the federal budget since President
Nixon abandoned the gold standard in 1971. Since 1971, the federal budget has
had a surplus in only 4 of 48 years or 8.0% of the time. Moreover, the average
fiscal deficit was minor before 1971 as Washington exercised greater restraint
with its spending. Once the gold standard was removed however, the shackles
fell away as Congress could vote to establish a new, higher credit limit, as
needed. The following chart reveals the federal government surplus/shortfall
from June 30, 1901 through September 30, 2019. Again, note how things changed
drastically after the gold standard was removed.
---- How Much Debt is Too Much?
Most understand, to some extent, that excessive debt will hurt future generations. But to understand the full impact, we will reference a 2011 study conducted by the Bank of International Settlements. The BIS, located in Basel, Switzerland, is owned by 62 central banks from countries around the world that collectively represent 95% of total global GDP. It is the bank of central banks. In the study entitled, “The Real Effects of Debt,” the BIS found, “At moderate levels, debt improves welfare and enhances growth. But high levels can be damaging.” The research examined data from 18 countries from 1980 to 2010. The conclusion? When government debt exceeds 85% of GDP, economic growth slows. Currently, the federal debt to GDP ratio is 136.58%. Thus, we can expect slower economic growth in the future. The report also states that as federal debt rises beyond this threshold, a country’s is less able to handle an unexpected crisis.
More
More Americans Go Hungry Amid Coronavirus Pandemic, Census Shows
Causes include higher food prices, school closings; expiration of federal jobless benefits deepens distress
Updated Aug. 16, 2020 12:47 pm ET
The number of Americans who say they can’t afford enough food for
themselves or their children is growing, according to Census data, and it is
likely to get larger now that some government benefits have expired.
As of late last month, about 12.1% of adults lived in households that
didn’t have enough to eat at some point in the previous week, up from 9.8% in
early May, Census figures show. And almost 20% of Americans with kids at home
couldn’t afford to give their children enough food, up from almost 17% in early
June.
The data come from weekly surveys conducted by the Census from April to
July in which researchers asked respondents whether their households were
getting enough to eat.
Food
banks also say they have seen demand surge in the past few months. And the
number of people receiving benefits through the Supplemental Nutrition
Assistance Program, commonly known as food stamps, rose almost 16% between
March and April, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, a far more
rapid increase than during the last recession, when the biggest one-month
increase was 7.3% in September 2008.
More
49 People Shot In Last 72 Hours In New York As City Hits Its "Expiration Date"
by Tyler
Durden
The
gentrified New York City that made the Big Apple the envy of billionaires,
oligarchs, child molesters and money laundering criminals from around the world
is no more, and in its place is the hellish New York from the 1970s.According to Gothamist, between Thursday and Saturday, 49 people were shot in the largest city in the United States, as the uptick in gun violence continues this summer and is rushing to catch up with that other progressive paradise, Chicago.
Putting the surge in context, the number of people shot over the three days is five times more than the eight who were shot during the same days last year according to the Washington Examiner. While most of the shooting victims were merely wounded, at least six people were killed by gunshot wounds over the 3-day interval, compared to three homicides that took place during the same time last year.
More
Hollywood's Apocalypse NOW: Rich and famous are fleeing in droves as liberal politics and coronavirus turn City of Dreams into cesspit plagued by junkies and violent criminals
Gold's Gym has become synonymous with the Hollywood Dream.
Set just a few hundred yards from the ocean in sun-kissed Venice Beach,
Los Angeles, Gold's was the backdrop for Pumping Iron, the 1977 documentary
which followed a young, unknown Austrian bodybuilder called Arnold
Schwarzenegger as he prepared for the Mr Universe contest.
A makeshift tent city made up of flapping tarpaulins and cardboard boxes
surrounds the gym on all sides.
Junkies and the homeless, many of whom are clearly mentally ill, walk
the palm-lined streets like zombies – all just three blocks from
multi-million-dollar homes overlooking the Pacific.
Stolen bicycles are piled high on pavements littered with broken
syringes.
TV bulletins are filled with horror stories from across the city; of
women being attacked during their morning jog or residents returning home to
find strangers defecating in their front gardens.
Today, Los Angeles is a city on the brink. 'For Sale' signs are
seemingly dotted on every suburban street as the middle classes, particularly
those with families, flee for the safer suburbs, with many choosing to leave LA
altogether.
Elsewhere, is Germany heading to a 4 day working week?
German union IG Metall backs four-day week to save jobs
August 15, 2020
/ 9:50 AM
BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany’s largest trade union, IG Metall, on Saturday
proposed negotiating for a move to a four-day week to help secure jobs against
economic fallout from the coronavirus crisis and structural shifts in the
automobile industry.
IG Metall, which represents 2.3 million employees in the metal working
and electrical sectors, often makes demands that set benchmarks for wage
negotiations in those industries and beyond.
“The four-day week... could make it possible to keep industrial jobs
instead of scrapping them,” its leader Joerg Hofman told the Sueddeutsche
Zeitung daily.
The coronavirus crisis has put some 300,000 jobs at risk in Germany’s
metal and electrical industry, an IG Metall board member said last month.
The gradual switch to electric cars also threatens tens of thousands of
engine and gearbox manufacturing jobs in Germany.
Hofman said that, if companies agreed to cut working time, employees
should not necessarily see their salary cut by the same amount or they would
not be able to afford to work fewer hours.
He said companies had an interest in cutting hours rather than laying
off staff, as this would allow them to retain skilled workers and save
redundancy costs.
Hofman also called on the government to extend short-time working benefits
that have helped cushion the blow of the pandemic to 24 months from a current
maximum of 21 months.
Short-time work is a form of state aid that allows employers to switch
employees to shorter working hours during an economic downturn to keep them on
the payroll.
About 5.6 million Germans currently benefit from the scheme, according
to the Ifo research institute.
After a series of strikes, the IG Metall union agreed a deal in 2018 to
allow staff to cut their working week to 28 hours for up to two years to care
for children or other relatives.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-germany-labour/german-union-ig-metall-backs-four-day-week-to-save-jobs-idUKKCN25B0EX?il=0
Finally,
if it works in China, how long before coming to a town or city near you?
China to launch digital currency pilot program in some cities: MOFCOM
August 14, 2020
/ 5:58 AM
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China’s commerce ministry said on Friday it will
launch a digital currency pilot program in some cities.
These cities include those in the northern Chinese region of
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, eastern region of Yangtze River Delta, “Greater Bay
Area” around the Pearl River Delta, and some cities in Midwestern China,
according to an online statement.
Earlier this month, state-run media reported that China’s major
state-run commercial banks were conducting large-scale internal testing of a
digital wallet application, moving a step closer to the official launch of a
home-grown digital currency.
"The modern mind dislikes gold because it blurts out unpleasant truths."
Joseph Schumpeter
Covid-19 Corner
India Fatalities Top 50,000; Australian Deaths: Virus Update
Bloomberg News
Updated on August 17, 2020, 6:26 AM GMT+1
New Zealand delayed its national election by four weeks over concerns its coronavirus outbreak could disrupt the campaign and balloting. Australia had its deadliest day.
Italy and Spain told nightclubs to close, while France’s public health agency warned that all of the country’s Covid-19 indicators are trending upward.
U.S. fatalities exceeded 1,000 for the fifth consecutive day, though cases slowed. India’s death toll topped 50,000. South Korea reported more cases after warning over the weekend of a wave of infection, most of them linked to an outbreak at a church.
More
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-16/new-zealand-delays-elections-u-s-cases-slow-virus-update?srnd=coronavirus
Ireland says fresh COVID-19 spike 'deeply concerning'
August 15, 2020
/ 6:45 PM
DUBLIN (Reuters) - Ireland reported 200 new COVID-19 cases arising from
multiple clusters across the country on Saturday, the highest daily amount
since the beginning of May that the country’s chief medical officer described
as “deeply concerning”.
Ireland has reopened its economy at a slower pace than most European
Union countries but that did not stop a rise in cases over the last two weeks
that led to the first localised reimposition of some restrictions last week.
Health chiefs are due to decide next week whether to lift the controls
in the adjoining counties of Kildare, Laois and Offaly, and advise government
the following week if the economy can move into a twice-delayed final phase of
the reopening plan that would allow all pubs to open.
“We now have multiple clusters with secondary spread of disease and
rising numbers of cases in many parts of the country. This is deeply
concerning. NPHET (Ireland’s public health team) will monitor this extremely
closely over the coming days,” Ronan Glynn said in statement.
He advised everyone, especially those over the age of 70 or medically
vulnerable, to limit their contacts.
While the health department has been able to identify the origin of most
cases since the outbreaks emerged, just 68 cases on Saturday were so far
confirmed to be associated with localised outbreaks or as close contacts of a
confirmed case.
Two-thirds of the new cases were in two of Ireland’s 26 counties, with
81 in Kildare and 56 in neighbouring Dublin.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-ireland/ireland-says-fresh-covid-19-spike-deeply-concerning-idUKKCN25B0V8Germany's confirmed coronavirus cases rise by 561 to 224,014 - RKI
August 17, 2020
/ 4:33 AM
BERLIN (Reuters) - The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in Germany
increased by 561 to 224,014, data from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) for
infectious diseases showed on Monday.
The reported death toll rose by one to 9,232, the tally showed.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-germany-cases/germanys-confirmed-coronavirus-cases-rise-by-561-to-224014-rki-idUKKCN25D087COVID-19: South Korea reimposes social distancing after cases spike
Aug. 15, 2020 /
10:54 AM / Updated Aug. 15, 2020 at 4:01 PM
Aug. 15 (UPI) -- South Korea reimposed social distancing measures Saturday to curb COVID-19 after
local cases spiked recently in the capital.The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported 166 new cases, including 155 new local cases and 11 new imported cases, a five-month high.
Most of the new cases were in Seoul and the surrounding Gyeonggi province.
"The spread of coronavirus is very serious for Seoul and Gyeonggi province, the confirmed cases almost doubled in a day," South Korea's Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun said in a televised address Saturday. "Our priority is to swiftly stop the virus from spreading further in the capital area."
Authorities imposed Level 2 social distancing in Seoul and Gyeonggi, which limits indoor public gatherings to 50 people and outdoor gatherings to 100 people. The restrictions also mean the public can no longer attend sporting events, and government-run public facilities will be closed, along with privately run facilities considered to be high risk.
More
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2020/08/15/COVID-19-South-Korea-reimposes-social-distancing-after-cases-spike/5671597496349/
Some useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
Rt Covid-19
Covid19info.live
Banks are an almost irresistible attraction for that element of our society which seeks unearned money.
J. Edgar Hoover.
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.
Quantum materials quest could benefit from graphene that buckles
Cooled graphene mimics effect of enormous magnetic fields that would benefit electronics
Date:
August 12, 2020
Source:
Rutgers University
Summary:
Graphene buckles when cooled while attached to a flat surface, resulting in
pucker patterns that could benefit the search for novel quantum materials and
superconductors, according to new research.
Graphene, an extremely thin two-dimensional layer of the graphite used
in pencils, buckles when cooled while attached to a flat surface, resulting in
beautiful pucker patterns that could benefit the search for novel quantum
materials and superconductors, according to Rutgers-led research in the journal
Nature.
Quantum materials host strongly interacting electrons with special
properties, such as entangled trajectories, that could provide building blocks
for super-fast quantum computers. They also can become superconductors that
could slash energy consumption by making power transmission and electronic
devices more efficient.
"The buckling we discovered in graphene mimics the effect of
colossally large magnetic fields that are unattainable with today's magnet
technologies, leading to dramatic changes in the material's electronic
properties," said lead author Eva Y. Andrei, Board of Governors professor
in the Department of Physics and Astronomy in the School of Arts and Sciences
at Rutgers University-New Brunswick. "Buckling of stiff thin films like
graphene laminated on flexible materials is gaining ground as a platform for
stretchable electronics with many important applications, including eye-like
digital cameras, energy harvesting, skin sensors, health monitoring devices
like tiny robots and intelligent surgical gloves. Our discovery opens the way
to the development of devices for controlling nano-robots that may one day play
a role in biological diagnostics and tissue repair."
The scientists studied buckled graphene crystals whose properties change
radically when they're cooled, creating essentially new materials with
electrons that slow down, become aware of each other and interact strongly,
enabling the emergence of fascinating phenomena such as superconductivity and
magnetism, according to Andrei.
Using high-tech imaging and computer simulations, the scientists showed
that graphene placed on a flat surface made of niobium diselenide, buckles when
cooled to 4 degrees above absolute zero. To the electrons in graphene, the
mountain and valley landscape created by the buckling appears as gigantic
magnetic fields. These pseudo-magnetic fields are an electronic illusion, but
they act as real magnetic fields, according to Andrei.
"Our research demonstrates that buckling in 2D materials can
dramatically alter their electronic properties," she said.
The next steps include developing ways to engineer buckled 2D materials
with novel electronic and mechanical properties that could be beneficial in
nano-robotics and quantum computing, according to Andrei.
More
A large Bank is exactly the place where a vain and shallow person in authority, if he be a man of gravity and method, as such men often are, may do infinite evil in no long time, and before he is detected. If he is lucky enough to begin at a time of expansion in trade, he is nearly sure not to be found out till the time of contraction has arrived, and then very large figures will be required to reckon the evil he has done.
Walter Bagehot. Lombard Street. 1873
The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished July
DJIA: 26,428 -1 Up. NASDAQ: 10,745 +243 Up. SP500:
3,271 +89 Up.
The NASDAQ
has remained up. The DJIA and SP500 have turned up. With stock mania running
fueled by trillions of central bankster new fiat money programs, I would not
rely on the indicators.
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