Wednesday, 5 August 2020

Beruit. On The Cusp? Gold. England’s Forgotten History.


Baltic Dry Index. 1463 +78  Brent Crude 44.35
Spot Gold 2018

Coronavirus Cases 5/8/20 World 18,634,439
Deaths 702,491

Interior Minister Mohammed Fahmi told a local TV station that it appeared the blast was caused by the detonation of more than 2,700 tons of ammonium nitrate that had been stored in a warehouse at the dock ever since it was confiscated from a cargo ship in 2014. Witnesses reported seeing an orange cloud like that which appears when toxic nitrogen dioxide gas is released after an explosion involving nitrates.


The big news this morning is the carnage in Lebanon’s capital Beruit. While President Trump says his Generals have informed him it was some kind of bomb, Lebanon’s government says it was 2,750 tons of confiscated ammonium nitrate that blew up, without explaining why or how. Our sympathies and prayers go out to all injured or affected.

In the global economy, Covid-19 continues to wreak havoc, with few countries reporting accurate figures.

But we do have accurate figures on the gargantuan amount of new fiat money, created out of nothing, governments everywhere have opted for to pay people not to work, or subsidise otherwise failed corporations, bonds, real estate, banks, and securities in general, to carry on in business in zombie like existence, waiting for something to turn up.

With mountains of newly created cash needed forever, under this new communist form of “capitalism,” increasingly some of the wiser wealthy are shifting some of their wealth into tangible assets like gold and silver.

While not a perfect insurance policy against the massive debauchment of the fiat currencies now underway, it offers some long term wealth protection from what all too often follows magic money tree, fiat currency debauchment.

Sadly, with seemingly no alternative to our brain dead central banksters to continuous fiat money creation, this new gold rush is likely to be a multi years long event. 

Ultimately what would you prefer? Paper or plastic money created out of nothing at the central bank at the push of a computer button, in unlimited quantities, or swapping some of those unlimited paper or plastic fiat currencies for very physical ownership of very limited quantities of hard to find, mine, refine, and mint, precious metals.

Spot Gold Smashes Through $2,000 With Haven Seekers Piling In

By Steven Frank and Yvonne Yue Li
Updated on August 4, 2020, 7:28 PM GMT+1
·        
Growing economic, political risks boost precious-metal demand
·         Hopes for further U.S. stimulus measures also help gold buying
·        
Spot gold soared to a record above $2,000 an ounce as investors continue to seek a haven for their assets amid daunting economic and geopolitical risks.
Gold has rallied in the past year as the coronavirus pandemic prompts unprecedented amounts of stimulus to shore up economies, including lower rates, which are a boon for non-interest-yielding gold. Simmering geopolitical tensions -- including a massive explosion at Lebanon’s main port on Tuesday -- are also boosting demand.

“People want safety, and safety right now is gold because Treasuries are not yielding up,” Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said by phone.

---- Holdings in both gold- and silver-backed exchange-traded funds have climbed to records in the past week amid concern about the fallout from the pandemic. Investors are so worried about the global outlook that worldwide holdings in gold-backed ETFs now stand behind only the official U.S. reserves of bullion after they surpassed Germany’s holdings.

---- The impact of the pandemic has driven real yields deeper into negative territory, which has boosted interest in the haven of gold. The dip below -1% on the 10-year is “a pretty big level,” according to TD Securities analyst Ryan McKay.

Investors are closely monitoring efforts in Washington to negotiate a new coronavirus relief package that many see as key to keeping the economy afloat as the pandemic curbs activity. The pressure is building, with the Senate set to leave on a break Friday, when crucial jobs data is due. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said earlier Tuesday stimulus talks with the White House are finally moving in the right direction but they remain far apart on some issues.
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In US news, barring a miracle, a private and commercial real estate disaster is just days away from starting, but once started will likely last all the rest of 2020 and deep into 2021.

But Republicans and Democrats alike, deep in the District of Crooks, seem all out of miracles, white rabbits, rabbit’s feet, and four leaf clover.  As they liked to say in those old cowboy movies, “spread out, they’re sure to get one of us.” (?)

Wave of evictions expected as moratoriums end in many states

August 4, 2020.
BALTIMORE (AP) — Kelyn Yanez used to clean homes during the day and wait tables at night in the Houston area before the coronavirus. But the mother of three lost both jobs in March because of the pandemic and now is facing eviction.

The Honduran immigrant got help from a local church to pay part of July’s rent but was still hundreds of dollars short and is now awaiting a three-day notice to vacate the apartment where she lives with her children. She has no idea how she will meet her August rent.

“Right now, I have nothing,” said Yanez, who briefly got her bar job back when the establishment reopened, but lost it again when she and her 4-year-old daughter contracted the virus in June and had to quarantine. The apartment owners “don’t care if you’re sick, if you’re not well. Nobody cares here. 

They told me that I had to have the money.”

Yanez, who lives in the U.S. illegally, is among some 23 million people nationwide at risk of being evicted, according to The Aspen Institute, as moratoriums enacted because of the coronavirus expire and courts reopen. Around 30 state moratoriums have expired since May, according to The Eviction Lab at Princeton University. On top of that, some tenants were already encountering illegal evictions even with the moratoriums.

Now, tenants are crowding courtrooms — or appearing virtually — to detail how the pandemic has upended their lives. Some are low-income families who have endured evictions before, but there are also plenty of wealthier families facing homelessness for the first time — and now being forced to navigate overcrowded and sometimes dangerous shelter systems amid the pandemic.

Experts predict the problem will only get worse in the coming weeks, with 30 million unemployed and uncertainty whether Congress will extend the extra $600 in weekly unemployment benefits that expired Friday. The federal eviction moratorium that protects more than 12 million renters living in federally subsidized apartments or units with federally backed mortgages expired July 25. If it’s not extended, landlords can initiate eviction proceedings in 30 days.
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In UK news, buy more, the bad news just keeps flowing like Olde River Thames. What could possibly go wrong? Negative interest rates? The Old Bag Lady of Threadneedle Street the only buyer of John Bull’s ever more dodgy gilts? A pensioner wipeout?

BP halves dividend after record loss, speeds up reinvention

August 4, 2020 / 7:19 AM
LONDON (Reuters) - BP (BP.L) cut its dividend for the first time in a decade after a record $6.7 billion second quarter loss when the coronavirus crisis hammered fuel demand and it sought to win over investors by speeding up its reinvention as a lower carbon company.

Its shares rose 6% in early trading on Tuesday.

All major oil companies suffered in the second quarter as lockdowns to contain the new coronavirus limited travel and oil prices LCOc1 fell to their lowest in two decades. Several, including Royal Dutch Shell and Norway’s Equinor, cut their dividend in response.

Looney, who took the helm in February, avoided a dividend cut in the first quarter despite worsening market conditions and as rivals reduced their payouts.

But Tuesday’s 50% cut by BP to 5.25 cents per share, which was larger than the 40% forecast by analysts, appeared inevitable given a large debt pile, the collapse in oil and gas demand and growing expectations for a sluggish global economic recovery.

BP’s net loss was in line with analysts’ expectations and was largely a result of the company’s decision to wipe $6.5 billion off the value of oil and gas exploration assets after it revised its price forecasts.

BP recorded total impairments of $17.4 billion, at the upper end of its previous guidance.
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Diageo full-year sales plunge as demand in bars, restaurants dries up

August 4, 2020 / 7:38 AM
(Reuters) - Diageo Plc (DGE.L), the world’s largest spirits maker, took a 1.3 billion pound writedown as it reported a bigger than expected decline in underlying net sales on Tuesday as demand for its whisky, vodka and gin fell in nearly all markets.

The Johnnie Walker whisky maker took the 1.3 billion pound non-cash writedown related to its businesses in India, Nigeria, Ethiopia and the Windsor whisky brand in South Korea, blaming challenging trading conditions due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 

On Tuesday, the company reported an 8.4% drop in organic sales for the year ended June 30, larger than the 7.3% fall analysts had expected, company supplied estimates showed.

This marks the company’s worst annual sales performance in more than a decade, according to Bernstein analysts.

---- By region, organic sales in Asia fell the most, dropping 16% due to the impact of coronavirus-related closures of alcohol outlets and bars in India and Thailand, while in China demand was hit by the absence of the Chinese New Year.

The company’s Latin America, Africa and Europe and Turkey markets also posted double-digit falls in sales, mainly due to disruptions to supply chains and fewer social occasions due to the pandemic.

North America was the only bright spot, with sales rising 2%, reflecting strong demand for tequilas and ready-to-drink beverages at supermarkets and alcohol stores, the company said

Chief Financial Officer Kathryn Mikells said the strong results in North America, its biggest market by revenue, was because 80% of Diageo’s sales came from retail stores, in contrast to other markets, where bars and restaurants make up most of the sales.

The company, which also makes Tanqueray Gin, Smirnoff Vodka and a wide range of scotch whiskey, said it was still unable to provide specific outlook for the year, after abandoning a full-year forecast in April. Its 4.5 billion pound capital returns programme remains suspended.
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PizzaExpress says may cut nearly 1,100 jobs, shut 67 stores in UK

August 4, 2020 / 10:26 AM
(Reuters) - PizzaExpress said on Tuesday it might shut 67 restaurants across the UK, putting around 1,100 jobs at risk, adding that the coronavirus crisis has had a profound impact on the hospitality sector.

The company, which operates 449 restaurants in the UK, said it has reached an agreement with some of its secured creditors and its majority shareholder for recapitalisation and restructuring.

Finally, in other news, just how bad will relations get between the USA and China before the November elections? A whole lot badder is my guess. I sense that China’s patience has just about run out. An explosion probably comes next.

China vows retaliation if any U.S. action against journalists

August 4, 2020 / 2:04 AM
BEIJING/SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China vowed on Tuesday to retaliate if the United States persisted with “hostile action” against Chinese journalists who may be forced to leave in coming days if their U.S. visas are not extended. 

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told reporters at a daily briefing that no Chinese journalist in the United States had been granted a visa extension since the United States, on May 11, limited their stay to 90 days, with an option to extend.

“The U.S. has been escalating its actions against Chinese journalists,” Wang told reporters. “The U.S. should immediately correct its mistake and stop its actions.”

“If the U.S. persists, China will take a necessary and legitimate response to safeguard its rights,” he said.

Wang did not say how many Chinese journalists were affected or what retaliation China might consider, but the editor of China’s Global Times newspaper said earlier U.S. journalists based in Hong Kong would be among those targeted should Chinese journalists be forced to leave the United States.

“Chinese side has prepared for the worst scenario that all Chinese journalists have to leave,” Hu said on Twitter.
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Trump’s request for cut from TikTok deal 'unprofessional,' threatens US business environment

Source: Global Times Published: 2020/8/4 11:58:40
Trump said on Monday that TikTok would be banned in the US unless it is bought by Microsoft or another company by September 15, and suggested the US Treasury should get a cut from the deal. 
Although it is unclear what amount Trump is referring to, his statement is a clear departure from market principles and a threat to the US business environment, an expert said.

According to US news outlets, Trump said on Monday that he is expecting "a very substantial portion" of the price of a potential deal as they are "making it possible for this deal to happen."

In a normal international merger and acquisition deal the fees that go to the government are limited to transaction fees and taxes, Bian Yongzu, a research fellow at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at the Renmin University of China, told the Global Times on Tuesday.

"What Trump is suggesting sounds like a commission fee," Bian said. "In the market-oriented business world a commission fee for the government is unheard of. It is clearly in breach of business ethics and very unprofessional."

Bian said the statement's implication also raises doubts over the process of a potential deal, as the government already seems too involved in what is supposed to be a market activity.

Experts said the fact that Trump's arrogant tactics could actually garner him some supporters in the US shows he is adept at manipulating public opinion to serve his re-election campaign.

Li Yong, deputy chair of the expert committee of the China Association of International Trade, said the whole drama, including what can be expected in the next chapter, is littered with political motivations that seek Trump's re-election. 

"In today's episode, we see Trump trying his hand at political blackmail [through the TikTok deal]," Li told the Global Times on Tuesday.

 "Judging by the open threat Trump has made against TikTok, it is possible that if the deal does happen, the government will put pressure on TikTok to lower its price," Bian said. "It is a departure from free market principles that the US used to take pride in."

US ‘robbery’ of TikTok angers Chinese hi-tech companies

By GT staff reporters Source: Global Times Published: 2020/8/3 23:23:40

Trump’s 45-day deadline turns transaction into fire sale: experts

Chinese tech companies entangled in the ever increasingly nasty crackdown waged by the US' Trump administration are mulling to act proactively, the Global Times learnt, with public anger growing on both sides of the Pacific, as the drama of the US forcing the sale of the hugely popular Chinese short-form video platform TikTok morphed one step closer to daylight robbery over the weekend.

Since threatening to ban TikTok last week, which reportedly has 100 million American users, US President Donald Trump is giving ByteDance, TikTok's Chinese parent company, 45 days to reach a deal to sell its US business to US software giant Microsoft, Reuters reported on Monday, citing sources.

By slapping a deadline on the potential deal, Trump has effectively turned transaction into a fire sale, further pressuring Beijing-based ByteDance to give up its business interests and intellectual property at a discounted rate.

The drama to forcibly hand the highly successful TikTok over to a US company has drawn widespread criticism across the Pacific, and has become another vivid lesson viewed closely by China's rising tech companies eyeing overseas market expansion amid an escalating tech war between the world's two largest economies which had already seen dozens of Chinese tech firms hit by US blacklist.

U.S. health chief to visit Taiwan, likely angering China

August 5, 2020 / 2:45 AM
TAIPEI (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar will visit Taiwan in coming days, his office said on Tuesday, making the highest-level visit by a U.S. official in four decades - a move likely to anger China, which claims the island as its own.

Azar’s visit will probably worsen already poor Beijing-Washington relations, inflamed over trade, the pandemic and human rights, even as Taiwan has welcomed the show of support in the face of unrelenting Chinese pressure.

During his visit, Azar will meet with President Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry said, which may infuriate China further.

“Taiwan has been a model of transparency and cooperation in global health during the COVID-19 pandemic and long before it,” Azar said in a statement. “I look forward to conveying President Trump’s support for Taiwan’s global health leadership and underscoring our shared belief that free and democratic societies are the best model for protecting and promoting health.”

His department, describing the trip as “historic”, said Azar would be accompanied by Mitchell Wolfe, chief medical officer of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and other members of the administration.

Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry said the visit showed the firm U.S. support for Taiwan and the closeness of their relationship.

---- The United States, like most countries, has no formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan, having ditched Taipei in favour of Beijing in 1979, but is its main arms supplier and strongest backer on the international stage.

Gina McCarthy, then-head of the Environmental Protection Agency, was the last U.S. Cabinet-level official to visit the island, in 2014. Her position is technically lower-ranking than Azar’s.
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There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.

John Kenneth Galbraith


Covid-19 Corner                       

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Norway restricts cruise ship arrivals after Covid-19 outbreak on vessel

Issued on: 04/08/2020 - 05:49
Norway stopped all cruise ships with more than 100 people on board from disembarking at its ports from Monday, after an outbreak of COVID-19 was reported late last week on a ship that had already disembarked at the port of Tromsoe.

At least 41 passengers and crew who were on board the cruise ship MS Roald Amundsen, operated by Norwegian company Hurtigruten, have so far tested positive for the coronavirus, while hundreds more on board were told to self-isolate for 10 days, local public health officials said on Sunday.
Norway is in touch with Germany, Denmark, Austria, Philippines and Latvia as passengers and crew on board came from these countries, officials said.

Ships that have already departed will be able to offload passengers and crew at Norwegian ports, but those yet to start journeys will not be able to do so, Norwegian Health Minister Bent Hoie said. The new rules are effective for the next 14 days.

"The pandemic is not over," Hoie told a news conference.

The Nordic country of 5.4 million inhabitants had reopened most of society in recent weeks as it got the COVID-19 pandemic under control. Some 9,268 infections have been reported in Norway as of Monday, with 256 deaths.

First out 

Hurtigruten was the first cruise operator worldwide to return an oceangoing cruise ship to service in mid-June, touting reduced passenger capacity, social distancing and strict rules on hygiene. It will now suspend all so-called expedition cruises until further notice.

"We have failed," CEO Daniel Skjeldamn told a news conference. "I apologise strongly on behalf of the company."

The MS Roald Amundsen had been scheduled to sail around the British Isles in September. Trips with two other vessels have also been suspended, though its business shipping goods between Norwegian ports will continue.

Norwegian police told Reuters they would investigate whether any laws had been broken.
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France could lose control of COVID-19 spread 'at any moment', says government's scientific council

04 Aug 2020 08:35PM
PARIS: France could "at any moment" lose control over the spread of the coronavirus, the government's COVID-19 scientific council warned Tuesday (Aug 4) as official data showed the first rise in intensive care patients since April.

In an opinion prepared for the government, the council warned "the virus has recently been circulating more actively, with an increased loss of distancing and barrier measures" since France emerged from a strict two-month lockdown in May.

"The balance is fragile and we can change course at any time to a less controlled scenario like in Spain for example," it said.

After strict lockdown measures pushed down infection rates, many European countries are now watching numbers creep back up, a consequence of easing curbs to try to limit economic damage and greater social mixing in the holiday season.

The council also warned it is "highly likely" a second wave of the coronavirus epidemic will hit France in the autumn or winter.

"It is highly likely that we will experience a second epidemic wave this autumn or winter," it said.

----French authorities have already started to tighten public hygiene rules, with cities such as Lille and Nice ordering people to wear masks in busy pedestrian streets.

Data released by the health department on Monday showed the number of people in intensive care had risen by 13 since Friday, breaking a downward trend observed since April, when French people were under strict stay-at-home orders to curb the spread of the virus.

Twenty-nine new deaths were reported over the same period, bringing the country's total toll to 30,294.
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Poland reports record increase in COVID cases as coal mines hit

August 4, 2020 / 9:51 AM
WARSAW (Reuters) - Poland reported on Tuesday a record daily increase in coronavirus cases for the fourth time in a week, with more than a third of them found in the southern Silesia region, which has been grappling with another outbreak among coal miners.

The latest tally of 680 new infections and six deaths comes as Poland considers introducing stricter restrictions, including mandatory testing for travellers returning to Poland and quarantine for those coming from certain countries. 

More than 220 cases were reported in Silesia, where a rapid spread of infections led to a temporary reduction of coal output and work in 12 mines in June. The situation then stabilised, but has now deteriorated again.

Last week new cases were detected in three mines, including Chwalowice, which was among those where work was cut back to a minimum in June. The state assets ministry said all 2,700 miners in Chwalowice would be tested on Tuesday and Wednesday.
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Venezuela produce market is at center of Caracas COVID-19 outbreak

August 4, 2020 / 1:06 PM
CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuela capital Caracas’ largest produce market is at the center of a worsening COVID-19 outbreak, but cash-strapped merchants refuse to stop hawking food there for the city’s 5 million residents, many of whom are starving.

Three days a week - down from six before the pandemic - some 10,000 people, including retailers and consumers, pack into the state-run Coche Wholesale Market. The produce is trucked out to the city’s supermarkets, providing a lifeline amid Venezuela’s six-year economic crisis. 

“Caracas depends on this market,” its administrator Walter Rivera said in an interview, adding that about 17,000 tonnes of goods are sold there each month.

But the open-air bazaar, where people pay little heed to social distancing though most wear masks, upsets President Nicolas Maduro’s government’s efforts to stop an accelerating number of coronavirus cases from overloading Venezuela’s dilapidated health system. So far authorities have confirmed 20,206 cases and 174 deaths, though the opposition and medical NGOs warn that testing is insufficient.
More
   
Some useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

Rt Covid-19

Covid19info.live

Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.

Novel approach improves graphene-based supercapacitors

Meeting growing demand for increased storage capacity

Date: August 3, 2020

Source: University of Technology Sydney

Summary: An efficient in situ pathway to generate and attach oxygen functional groups to graphitic electrodes for supercapacitors by inducing hydrolysis of water molecules within the gel electrolyte.

Demand for integrated energy storage devices is growing rapidly as people rely more and more on portable and wireless electronics, and the global need grows for clean energy sources such as solar and wind energies.

This is creating an exponential need for advanced energy storage technologies -- reliable and maintenance-free batteries and supercapacitors (SC) with high power density capability as storage devices. Supercapacitors are prominent candidates to meet this need due to their environmentally friendly and long cyclability characteristics.

Researchers from the Integrated Nano Systems Lab (INSys Lab), in the Centre for Clean Energy Technology, have been working on a pathway to improve the performance of supercapacitors, and meet that demand for increased storage capacity.

Dr Mojtaba Amjadipour and Professor Francesca Iacopi (School of Data and Electrical Engineering) and Dr Dawei Su (School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences) describe their cutting-edge work in the July 2020 issue of the journal Batteries and Supercaps. The prominence given to Graphitic-Based Solid-State Supercapacitors: Enabling Redox Reaction by In Situ Electrochemical Treatment -- designated a Very Important Paper with front coverage placement -- signifies just how innovative their research is in developing alternate ways to extend storage capacity.

Dr Iacopi said the multi-disciplinary approach within the team was beneficial in discovering what she says is a simple process.

---- Traditionally, supercapacitors are fabricated with liquid electrolytes, which cannot be miniaturised and can be prone to leakage, prompting research into gel-based and solid-state electrolytes. Tailoring these electrolytes in combination with carbon-based electrode materials such as graphene, graphene oxide, and carbon nanotubes is of paramount importance for an enhanced energy storage performance.

Graphene or graphitic carbon directly fabricated on silicon surfaces offers significant potential for on-chip supercapacitors that can be embedded into integrated systems. The research insights indicate a simple path to significantly enhance the performance of supercapacitors using gel-based electrolytes, which are key to the fabrication of quasi-solid-(gel) supercapacitors.

"This approach offers a new path to develop further miniaturized on-chip energy storage systems, which are compatible with silicon electronics and can support the power demand to operate integrated smart systems," Dr Iacopi said.

 August 5th, 910. The Battle of Tettenhall. Vikings Destroyed

----1,100 years since her death the Lady of the Mercians, and oldest daughter of Alfred the Great, is finally receiving the recognition she deserves for the part she played in British history and the formation of Britain as we now know it. When we think of a ‘warrior queen’ we might think of Boadicea or Empress Matilda, but Aethelflaed was a shrewd and military-astute ruler in her own right.

----Before the Battle of Tettenhall in 910, Aetheflaed had already garnered a reputation as a ruler who was prepared to stop the Vikings’ continued invasion of the English-speaking world, refortifying the city of Chester before the Vikings attempted, and ultimately failed, to breach its walls in 907. Danish Vikings had controlled much of northern England for over 100 years, and when they plundered and destroyed large parts of Mercia, believing the Anglo-Saxon forces were further south, Aethelflaed combined her Mercian forces with those of her brother, Alfred the Great’s heir Edward the Elder, and retaliated.

What ensued was the Battle of Tettenhall, in what is now Wolverhampton, on the 5 August 910. Sandwiched between the two Anglo-Saxon forces, the Danes suffered a tremendous defeat; the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle claimed that ‘many thousands of men’ perished, and the loss of two Danish kings, Healfdene and Eowils, as well as several nobles meant their defeat was the defeat of the last great raiding army from Denmark. 

Aethelflaed and Edward’s united forces could then turn against those further south, resulting in a rise of allied strength that would eventually unite England under one domestic monarch.
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The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished July

DJIA: 26,428 -1 Up. NASDAQ: 10,745 +243 Up. SP500: 3,271 +89 Up.

The NASDAQ has remained up. The DJIA and SP500 have turned up. With stock mania running fueled by trillions of central bankster new fiat money programs, I would not rely on the indicators.

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