Baltic Dry Index. 1487 -31 Brent Crude 44.31
Spot Gold 1935
Coronavirus Cases 24/8/20 World 23,545,649
Deaths 816,847
August
24, 410 A.D. Alaric I sacks Rome. The “end” of the Western Empire.
An interesting week
ahead. The Republican Convention to promote President Trump as the Republican
candidate in the November election. Then the “dirty tricks” 2020 campaign
really gets underway. We haven’t seen anything yet!
The annual Federal
Reserve insiders junket at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Likely to be a more virtual
reality event this year due to the coronavirus crisis. After all, what’s the
use of getting all those insider tip-offs if in attending you fall ill and die
from Covid-19.
Two hurricanes
heading for Louisiana this week, albeit one of them can’t make up its mind
whether to be a hurricane or a “mere” tropical storm.
And on both sides of
the Atlantic stock casinos are heading towards the usual end of the month dress
up casino stocks gala, and next Monday’s end of summer bank holidays.
Finally, for the
second time this year, rumours that Kim Jong-Un, dictator of North Korea, is
dead.
All in all, an interesting
week. More 1987 than 410 A. D. I think.
Global stocks jump as investors pin hopes on coronavirus treatment
August 24, 2020
/ 2:13 AM
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian shares advanced for a
second straight session on Monday, underpinned by coronavirus hopes after the
U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA) authorised the use of blood plasma
from recovered patients as a treatment option.
E-Mini futures for the S&P500 ESc1 gained 0.3%.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside of Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS jumped 0.65%, moving toward a six-month high touched last week.
Japan's Nikkei .N225 reversed early losses to be last up 0.4%. Chinese shares rose too with the blue-chip CSI 300 index .CSI300 adding 0.8%.
South Korea's KOSPI .KS11, which has been on a slippery slope since hitting a more than two-year peak earlier this month, climbed 0.9%.
Sentiment was also supported by a Financial Times report that the Trump administration is considering by-passing normal U.S. regulatory standards to fast-track an experimental coronavirus vaccine from the UK for use in America ahead of the presidential election.
“Markets are opening this morning to optimism on the therapeutics front after the FDA authorized the use of blood plasma from COVID-19 survivors to treat sick patients,” said Stephen Innes, chief global markets strategist at AxiCorp.
“Not the COVID-19 cure all the world is hoping for, but it is another positive step to help patient recovery time and get people back on their feet quicker.”
Analysts still urged caution with Wall Street indexes already at record
highs even as the world economy struggled to recover from the once-in-a-century
pandemic.
“With risks rising somewhat and September a full month for policy, the
end of summer is a good time to cross-check valuations and to consider both
threats and opportunities,” said JPMorgan cross asset analyst John Normand.
Normand pointed to talks of a U.S. fiscal package, Fed’s upcoming policy review
next month and the ramping up of the U.S. election campaign as risk events over
coming weeks.
Looming large over this week was a keenly anticipated address by Federal
Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Kansas City Fed Jackson Hole symposium,
where he will talk on the Fed’s monetary policy framework review. “This takes
on even more significance after the market’s evident disappointment last week,”
said Ray Attrill, head of forex strategy at Melbourne-based National Australia
Bank.
More
In other “good” news
for our stock casinos:
Global dividend plunge to be worst since financial crisis
August 24, 2020
/ 12:19 AM
LONDON (Reuters) - The coronavirus crisis will
see the world’s biggest firms slash dividend payouts between 17%-23% this year
or what could be as much $400 billion(305.44 billion pounds), a new report has
shown, although sectors such as tech are fighting the trend.
Global dividend payments plunged $108 billion to $382 billion in the
second quarter of the year, fund manager Janus Henderson has calculated,
equating to a 22% year-on-year drop which will be the worst since at least
2009.
All regions saw lower payouts except North America, where Canadian
payments proved to be resilient. Worldwide, 27% of firms cut their dividends,
while worst affected Europe saw more than half do so and two thirds of those
cancel them outright.
“2020 will see the worst outcome for global dividends since the global
financial crisis,” Janus Henderson said in a report published on Monday.
“We now expect headline global dividends to fall
17% in a best-case scenario, paying $1.18 trillion... Our worst-case scenario
could see payouts drop 23% to $1.10 trillion.”
More
Coronavirus Lifts Government Debt to WWII Levels—Cutting It Won’t Be Easy
Advanced economies no longer benefit from rapid economic and population growth of postwar period
Aug. 23, 2020 10:00 am ET
As countries world-wide boost spending to battle the new coronavirus, government debt has soared to
levels not seen since World War II.Among advanced economies, debt rose to 128% of global gross domestic product as of July, according to the International Monetary Fund. In 1946, it came to 124%.
For now, governments shouldn’t worry about mounting debt and instead focus on bringing the virus under control, said Glenn Hubbard, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President George W. Bush.
“The war analogy is exactly the right one,” said Mr. Hubbard, dean emeritus of Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business. “We were and are fighting a war. It’s a virus, not a foreign power, but the level of spending isn’t the problem.”
After World War II, advanced economies brought
down debt quickly, thanks in large part to rapid economic growth. The ratio of
debt to GDP fell by more than half, to less than 50%, by 1959. It is likely to
be harder this time, for reasons involving demographics, technology and slower
growth.
In the optimistic era after the war, birthrates
boomed, leading to gains in household formation and growing workforces.
Circumstances were ripe to reap the benefits of electrification,
suburbanization and improved medicine.
Through the late 1950s, economies soared. Growth averaged around 5% a
year in France and Canada, almost 6% in Italy and more than 8% in Germany and
Japan. The U.S. economy grew almost 4% a year.
“We’d be lucky to have half that over the next decade,” said Nathan
Sheets, a former undersecretary of the Treasury for international affairs and
now chief economist at PGIM Fixed Income, the investment-management business of
Prudential Financial Inc.
More
Trump says could 'decouple' and not do business with China
August 22, 2020
/ 10:56 PM
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump, in a Fox News
interview airing Sunday, raised the possibility of decoupling the U.S. economy
from China, a major purchaser of U.S. goods.
In a video excerpt, Trump initially told interviewer Steve Hilton “we
don’t have to” do business with
China, and then later said about decoupling:
“Well it’s something that if they don’t treat us right I would certainly, I
would certainly do that.”
Trump entered into a high-stakes trade war with China before reaching a
partial Phase 1 trade deal in January. Trump has since shut the door on Phase 2
negotiations, saying he was unhappy with Beijing’s handling of the pandemic.
In June U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said a decoupling of the
U.S. and Chinese economies will result if U.S. companies are not allowed to
compete on a fair and level basis in China’s economy.
Coronavirus, economic slump force mainland Chinese owners to dump their luxury Hong Kong properties at steep losses
·
At least 10 recent transactions were lower than
market price or incurred losses of as much as HK$8.2 million (US$1.06 million)
for their mainland owners
·
China’s economic slowdown and the third wave of
Covid-19 infections in Hong Kong have made some mainlanders offload the
properties, analysts say
Some heavily indebted mainland Chinese owners have been forced to sell
their luxury apartments in Hong Kong at huge losses or discounts, as the
economic slump at home takes a toll and a fresh wave of coronavirus makes them question the wisdom
of holding on to the assets in the city.
At least 10 transactions – nine residential properties and one parking
space – have incurred big losses, of up to HK$8.2 million (US$1.06 million), or
been sold with steep discounts since the second half of July, according to
agents.
“The economies in both mainland China and Hong Kong are so-so during the
pandemic, causing some mainland buyers to sell their properties at lower prices
and losses, because they need cash,” said Derek Chan, head of research at
Ricacorp Properties.
China’s economy grew 3.2 per cent in the second quarter, making it
the first major economy in the world to record some sort of recovery from
Covid-19. But Chinese enterprises are bracing for sluggish external demand as
many other countries are still embroiled in a prolonged pandemic, a problem
exacerbated by the fraying US-China relations.
The retreat from the local property market has continued since early
signs emerged in April, with several spots popular with mainland investors
suffering bigger price declines. Mainland buyers have generally halted their
purchases, according to some property agencies.
The discounts and losses of mainland Chinese homeowners reflected the
general market situation in Hong Kong, said Sammy Po, chief executive of
Midland Realty’s residential division, as sellers in the secondary market are under pressure to cut prices
for fast sales.
More
In US weather news, are
two hurricanes headed towards New Orleans this week?
Residents flee Gulf Coast ahead of two potential hurricanes
Published: Aug. 23, 2020 at 11:43 p.m. ET
NEW ORLEANS — The Gulf Coast braced Sunday for a potentially devastating
hit from twin hurricanes as two dangerous storms swirled toward the U.S from
the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean. Officials feared a history-making
onslaught of life-threatening winds and flooding along the coast, stretching
from Texas to Alabama.
A storm dubbed Marco grew into a hurricane Sunday as it churned up the
Gulf of Mexico toward Louisiana. But, Marco’s intensity was fluctuating,
forecasters said, and the system was downgraded to a tropical storm Sunday
night.
Another potential hurricane, Tropical Storm Laura, lashed the Dominican
Republic and Haiti, and was tracking toward the same region of the U.S. coast,
carrying the risk of growing into a far more powerful storm.
Experts said computer models show Laura could make landfall with winds
exceeding 110 mph, and rain bands from both storms could bring a combined total
of 2 feet of rain to parts of Louisiana and several feet of potentially deadly
storm surge.
“There has never been anything we’ve seen like this before, where you
can have possibly two hurricanes hitting within miles of each over a 48-hour
period,” said Benjamin Schott, meteorologist in charge of the National Weather
Service’s Slidell, Louisiana, office.
The combination of the rain and storm surge in a day or two means
“you’re looking at a potential for a major flood event that lasts for some
time,” said weather service tropical program coordinator Joel Cline. “And
that’s not even talking about the wind.’’
----Marco was initially expected to make landfall Monday, but the
National Hurricane Center said that “a major shift” in a majority of their
computer models now show the storm stalling off the Louisiana coast for a few
days before landing west of New Orleans — and likely weakening before hitting
the state. However, skeptical meteorologists at the center were waiting to see
if the trends continue before making a dramatic revision in their forecast.
More
Finally, how the Wall
Street gambling casino really works in the age of free Fed fiat money for banksters.
Welcome to the 21st century, high-tec bucket shop.
The Inside Story Of Robinhood’s Billionaire Founders, Option Kid Cowboys And The Wall Street Sharks That Feed On Them
Aug 19, 2020,06:30am EDT
---- Welcome to the stock market, Robinhood-style. Since February, as the global economy collapsed under the weight of the coronavirus pandemic, millions of novices, armed with $1,200 stimulus checks and nothing much to do, have begun trading via Silicon Valley upstart Robinhood—the phone-friendly discount brokerage founded in 2013 by Vladimir Tenev, 33, and Baiju Bhatt, 35.
The young entrepreneurs built their rocketship by applying the formula
Facebook made famous: Their app was free, easy to use and addictive. And Robinhood—named
for the legendary medieval outlaw who took from the rich and gave to the
poor—had a mission even the most woke, capitalism-weary Millennial could get
behind: to “democratize finance for all.”
Covid-19 and the flow of government handouts have been manna from heaven
for Robinhood. The firm has added more than 3 million accounts since January, a
30% rise, and it expects revenue to hit $700 million this year, a 250% spike
from 2019, according to a person familiar with the private company’s finances.
Not since May Day 1975, when the SEC deregulated brokerage commissions, giving
rise to discount brokerages like Charles Schwab, has there been a more
disruptive force in the retail stock market. Robinhood’s commission-free
trading is now standard at firms including TD Ameritrade, Fidelity, Schwab,
Vanguard and Merrill Lynch.
---- Like any skilled trader, Tenev is talking his book. His
proclamations ring a bit hollow, though, once you look more closely at what is
actually driving his digital casino. From its inception, Robinhood was designed
to profit by selling its customers’ trading data to the very sharks on Wall
Street who have spent decades—and made billions—outmaneuvering investors. In
fact, an analysis reveals that the more risk Robinhood’s customers take in
their hyperactive trading accounts, the more the Silicon Valley startup profits
from the whales it sells their orders to. And while Robinhood’s successful
recruitment of inexperienced young traders may have inadvertently minted a few
new millionaires riding the debt-fueled bull market, it is also deluding an
entire generation into believing that trading options successfully is as easy
as leveling up on a video game.
---- The problem is that Robinhood has sold the
world a story of helping the little guy that is the opposite of its actual
business model: selling the little guy to rich market operators with very sharp
elbows.
---- The secret sauce of Robinhood’s success is something its founders are loath to publicize: From the beginning, Robinhood staked its profitability on something known as “payment for order flow,” or PFOF.
Instead of taking fees on the front end in the form of commissions, Tenev and Bhatt would make money behind the scenes, selling their trades to so-called market makers—large, sophisticated quantitative-trading firms like Citadel Securities, Two Sigma Securities, Susquehanna International Group and Virtu Financial. The big firms would feed Robinhood customer orders into their algorithms and seek to profit executing the trades by shaving small fractions off bid and offer prices.
Robinhood didn’t invent this selling of orders—E-Trade, for example, earned about $200 million in 2019 through the practice. Unlike most of its competitors, though, Robinhood charges the quants a percentage of the spread on each trade it sells, versus a fixed amount. So when there is a large gap between the bid and asked price, everyone wins—except the customer. Moreover, since Robinhood’s customers tend to trade small quantities of stocks, they are less likely to move markets and are thus lower-risk for the big quants running their models. In the first quarter of 2020, 70% of the firm’s $130 million in revenue was derived from selling its order flow. In the second quarter, Robinhood’s PFOF doubled to $180 million.
Given Tenev and Bhatt’s history in the high-frequency trading business, it’s no surprise that they cleverly built their firm around attracting the type of account that would be most desirable to their Wall Street trading-firm clients. What kind of traders make the most saleable chum for giant sharks? Those who chase volatile momentum stocks, caring little about the size of spreads, and those who speculate with options. So Robinhood’s app was designed to appeal to the video-game generation of young, inexperienced investors.
More
Some of
the queries Quakers are asked to consider, are: "Do you maintain strict
integrity in your business transactions and in your relations with individuals
and organizations? Are you personally scrupulous and responsible in the use of
money entrusted to you, and are you careful not to defraud the public
revenue?"
Probably
why there a no Quakers on Wall Street, in the City or Parliament.
Covid-19 Corner
N.Z. Extends Lockdown; Trump’s Plasma Push: Virus Update
Bloomberg News
Updated on August 24, 2020, 5:31 AM GMT+1
U.S. President Donald Trump said a treatment based on blood plasma donated by people who’ve recovered from Covid-19 will
be expanded, even before researchers fully understand how well it works.New Zealand extended a lockdown in its largest city Auckland to Aug. 30. South Korea reported a decline in new cases, and a health official said the situation isn’t at the stage of raising social-distancing measures to the highest level yet.
Coronavirus-related deaths in the U.S. fell below 1,000, while fatalities in Mexico surpassed 60,000. Europe is seeing a resurgence of cases and India infections topped 3 million.
Key Developments:
- Global Tracker: Cases top 23.3 million; deaths surpass 807,000
- Trump’s plasma push stands to delay clearer reading on science
- China’s vaccine leader aims to beat Covid the old-fashioned way
- A new Europe surge challenges Italy’s lockdown success
- Crisis spotlights Japan’s need to fix creaking computer systems
- Vaccine Tracker: where we are in the race for protection
Italy tops 1,000 daily coronavirus cases for first time since May
August 22, 2020
/ 4:54 PM
ROME (Reuters) - Italy’s health ministry on Saturday reported 1,071 new
coronavirus infections in the past 24 hours, exceeding 1,000 cases in a day for
the first time since May when the government eased rigid lockdown measures.
Italy, one of Europe’s worst-hit countries with more than 35,000 deaths,
has managed to contain the outbreak after a peak in deaths and cases between
March and April.
However, it has seen a steady increase in infections over the last
month, with experts blaming holidays and night life for causing people to
gather in numbers.
The country last recorded a higher figure on May 12, when 1,402 cases
were reported, six days before restaurants, bars and shops were allowed to
reopen after a 10-week lockdown.
Despite the rise in infections, daily death tallies remain low and are
often in single figures. Saturday saw just three fatalities, compared to nine
on Friday and six on Thursday, health ministry data showed.
The number of new infections remains considerably lower than those
registered in Spain and France.
Morehttps://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-italy/italy-tops-1000-daily-coronavirus-cases-for-first-time-since-may-idUKKBN25I0JK
COVID-19 and 1918 ‘Spanish flu’ have one depressing thing in common
Published: Aug. 22, 2020 at 4:54 a.m. ET
A new working paper looks at the effects of the 1918 influenza and COVID-19 pandemics on mortality and the economy, plus the role of non-pharmaceutical interventions
How much has changed?The 2020 coronavirus and 1918 Spanish influenza pandemics have many differences and share many similarities, but they also converge on one key point: their impact on the economy and employment and, in particular, how wealthier people had better odds of surviving their respective pandemics.
Both pandemics involve novel, highly contagious, respiratory viruses, spread across the world in a matter of months and, as of August 2020, COVID-19 — like the 1918 influenza — lacks a vaccine. During the 1918 pandemic, people wore masks and employed social distancing as much as possible instead, just like today.
Related: Another warning from 1918 Spanish flu for COVID-19: ‘Survival does not mean that individuals fully recovered’
A new working paper released Monday looked at the effects of the 1918 influenza and COVID-19 pandemics on mortality and the economy, plus the role of non-pharmaceutical interventions such as mask wearing and social distancing, and the impact on workers and socioeconomic status.
Even though both of these pandemics occurred 100 years apart, they had one depressing commonality, according to the research carried out by economists at Vanderbilt University in Nashville, Oberlin College in Oberlin, Ohio, and Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh.
During the 1918 influenza pandemic, wealthier people had a better chance of survival: Individuals of moderate and higher economic status had a mortality rate of 0.38%, versus 0.52% for those of lower economic status and 1% for those who were “very poor,” they wrote.
The economists — Brian Beach, Karen Clay, Martin Saavedra — said pandemics may exacerbate health disparities by disproportionately affecting groups more likely to suffer from risk factors, such as underlying, chronic conditions, including diabetes, and other cardiovascular issues.
“Compared to individuals who lived in one-room apartments, individuals who lived in two-room, three-room, and four-room apartments had 34%, 41%, and 56% lower mortality, respectively,” they added. Similarly, multi-generational households were more at risk from coronavirus in 2020.
Women were harder hit by both pandemics economically
Some 500 million people, or one-third of the world’s population, became infected with the 1918 Spanish flu. An estimated 50 million people died worldwide, with about 675,000 deaths occurring in the U.S., according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.(Coronavirus update: COVID-19 has now killed at least 799,364 people worldwide. As of Saturday, the U.S. has the world’s highest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases (5,623,990) and deaths (175,409). Worldwide, confirmed cases are now at 22,954,471.)
More
Some useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
Rt Covid-19
Covid19info.live
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.
Graphene sensors find subtleties in magnetic fields
Date:
August 20, 2020
Source:
Cornell University
Summary:
Researchers used an ultrathin graphene 'sandwich' to create a tiny magnetic
field sensor that can operate over a greater temperature range than previous
sensors, while also detecting miniscule changes in magnetic fields that might
otherwise get lost within a larger magnetic background.
Cornell researchers used an ultrathin graphene "sandwich" to
create a tiny magnetic field sensor that can operate over a greater temperature
range than previous sensors, while also detecting miniscule changes in magnetic
fields that might otherwise get lost within a larger magnetic background.
Hall-effect sensor Provided
Researchers led by Katja Nowack, assistant professor of physics, created
this micron-scale Hall-effect sensor by sandwiching graphene between sheets of
hexagonal boron nitride, resulting in a device that operates over a greater
temperature range than previous Hall sensors.
The group's paper, "Magnetic Field Detection Limits for Ultraclean
Graphene Hall Sensors," published Aug. 20 in Nature Communications.
The team was led by Katja Nowack, assistant professor of physics in the
College of Arts and Sciences and the paper's senior author.
Nowack's lab specializes in using scanning probes to conduct magnetic
imaging. One of their go-to probes is the superconducting quantum interference
device, or SQUID, which works well at low temperatures and in small magnetic
fields.
"We wanted to expand the range of parameters that we can explore by
using this other type of sensor, which is the Hall-effect sensor," said
doctoral student Brian Schaefer, the paper's lead author. "It can work at
any temperature, and we've shown it can work up to high magnetic fields as
well. Hall sensors have been used at high magnetic fields before, but they're
usually not able to detect small magnetic field changes on top of that magnetic
field."
The Hall effect is a well-known phenomenon in condensed matter physics.
When a current flows through a sample, it is bent by a magnetic field, creating
a voltage across both sides of the sample that is proportional to the magnetic
field.
Hall-effect sensors are used in a variety of technologies, from
cellphones to robotics to anti-lock brakes. The devices are generally built out
of conventional semiconductors like silicon and gallium arsenide.
Nowack's group decided to try a more novel approach.
The last decade has seen a boom in uses of graphene sheets -- single
layers of carbon atoms, arranged in a honeycomb lattice. But graphene devices
often fall short of those made from other semiconductors when the graphene
sheet is placed directly on a silicon substrate; the graphene sheet
"crumples" on the nanoscale, inhibiting its electrical properties.
Nowack's group adopted a recently developed technique to unlock
graphene's full potential -- sandwiching it between sheets of hexagonal boron
nitride. Hexagonal boron nitride has the same crystal structure as graphene but
is an electrical insulator, which allows the graphene sheet to lie flat.
Graphite layers in the sandwich structure act as electrostatic gates to tune
the number of electrons that can conduct electricity in the graphene.
----The researchers were able to create a micron-scale Hall sensor that functions as well as the best Hall sensors reported at room temperature while outperforming any other Hall sensor at temperatures as low as 4.2 kelvins (or minus 452.11 degrees Fahrenheit).
The graphene sensors are so precise they can pick out tiny fluctuations
in a magnetic field against a background field that is larger by six orders of
magnitude (or a million times its size). Detecting such nuances is a challenge
for even high-quality sensors because in a high magnetic field, the voltage
response becomes nonlinear and therefore more difficult to parse.
More
Bah
humbug!
President
Trump, with apologies to Ebenezer Scrooge.
The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished July
DJIA: 26,428 -1 Up. NASDAQ: 10,745 +243 Up. SP500:
3,271 +89 Up.
The NASDAQ
has remained up. The DJIA and SP500 have turned up. With stock mania running
fueled by trillions of central bankster new fiat money programs, I would not
rely on the indicators.
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