Baltic Dry Index. 1504 -05 Brent Crude 45.10
Spot Gold 1943
Coronavirus Cases 28/8/20 World 24,586,904
Deaths 840,596
The old believe everything, the middle-aged suspect everything,
the young know everything.
Oscar Wilde
With early reports suggesting that damage from hurricane Laura was less than anticipated, thankfully if correct, the markets focus today will likely be on President Trump’s acceptance speech, and what it signals for a Trump second term.
The markets will also be focusing on Fed Chairman Powell’s speech yesterday and what it might mean in the long run for US inflation.
He seems now to be targeting unemployment, suggesting that in the long run interest rates will be lower for longer and that eventually a higher inflation rate than 2 percent is going to be allowed.
With new weekly unemployment claims continuing to run at over a million, and a US presidential election just over 2 months away, Chairman Powell probably couldn’t say much else, but playing with attempting to stoke up inflation is playing with fire, even if given the continuing unemployment numbers and a looming real estate crisis, inflation is not an immediate concern.
As for President Trump’s vision for a second term, first you have to win a second term, and at present that seems unlikely unless all the US cities lawlessness continues out of control.
Fed Paves Way for Low-Rate Era With Inflation Able to Run Higher
By Craig Torres, Christopher Condon, and Steve Matthews
August 27, 2020, 2:08 PM GMT+1 Updated on August 27, 2020, 10:49 PM GMT+1
·
·
Fed to look at shortfalls on employment rather
than deviations
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell unveiled a new approach to setting U.S. monetary policy, letting inflation and employment run higher in a shift that will likely keep interest rates low for years to come.
Following a more than yearlong review, Powell said Thursday that the Fed will seek inflation that averages 2% over time, a step that implies allowing for price pressures to overshoot after periods of weakness. It also adjusted its view of full employment to permit labor-market gains to reach more workers.
The new strategy, outlined by Powell in a speech delivered virtually for the central bank’s annual policy symposium traditionally held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is being undertaken to tackle years of too-low inflation. It hands the central bank flexibility to let the job market run hotter and price pressures float higher before taking action as it may previously have done.
“They really, really, really are not going to be raising interest rates any time soon,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING Financial Markets. “The Fed is saying rates will be lower for longer, but don’t worry inflation is not going to be picking up.”
While it doesn’t target a specific rate of unemployment broadly or for certain demographic groups, the approach may help address other weaknesses in the economy.
“Maximum employment is a broad-based and inclusive goal,” Powell said. “This change reflects our appreciation for the benefits of a strong labor market, particularly for many in low- and moderate-income communities.”
During the longest U.S. economic expansion on record until the pandemic hit earlier this year, many groups benefited -- including minorities and women. With millions out of work and unrest flaring up across the U.S. over racial inequality, questions about how the Fed’s policy helps diverse communities have been raised.
More
Unemployment Claims Remain Historically High
New applications for jobless benefits fell slightly to one million last week
Updated Aug. 27, 2020 10:17 am ETUnemployment claims fell slightly last week but remained historically high, signaling layoffs continue as the coronavirus continues to hamper the economic recovery.
New applications for unemployment benefits ticked down to one million in the week ended Aug. 22, the Labor Department said Thursday. Initial unemployment claims remain well below the recent peak of about seven million in March but are far higher than pre-pandemic levels of about 200,000 claims a week.
The number of people collecting unemployment benefits through regular state programs, which cover most workers, edged down to about 14.5 million for the week ended Aug. 15. So-called continuing claims, which are released with a one-week lag, hit a high of nearly 25 million this spring but have declined in recent weeks, a sign companies are bringing back workers.
“We’re seeing gradual improvement, but we really need to underscore the word ‘gradual’ here. We’re only inching along in terms of the labor market’s recovery,” said Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities.
In a separate report released Thursday, the Commerce Department revised its estimate of second-quarter economic growth, saying gross domestic product fell at a 31.7% annual rate, slightly less than its earlier estimate of 32.9%, due to the effects of the coronavirus pandemic.
More
https://www.wsj.com/articles/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-08-27-2020-11598481716
Trump promises tariffs on companies that leave U.S. to create jobs overseas
August 28, 2020
/ 4:28 AM
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that
if he was re-elected, his administration would impose tariffs on any company
that leaves the United States to create jobs elsewhere.
“We will impose tariffs on any company that leaves America to produce
jobs overseas,” Trump said in his acceptance speech at the Republican National
Convention. “We’ll make sure our companies and jobs stay in our country, as
I’ve already been doing. Joe Biden’s agenda is Made in China. My agenda is Made
in the USA.”
Trump portrayed himself as having been willing to challenge China on
trade during his speech to the party faithful and asserted his Democratic rival
in the November election, Joe Biden, would not be as tough.
The former real estate developer spent much of his first term waging a
trade war against China over its trade practices, technology transfer and
industrial policies, imposing punitive tariffs on $370 billion worth of Chinese
imports.
In May, he threatened to impose new taxes on American companies that
produce goods outside the United States, another move his administration could
make to push supply chains away from China and raise new trade barriers.
Trump made a similar comment last week during a campaign event in
Pennsylvania, when he said: “We will give tax credits to companies to bring jobs
back to America. And if they don’t do it, we will put tariffs on those
companies and they will have to pay us a lot of money.”
More
Oil drifts down as U.S. producers, refiners avoid worst of storm
August 28, 2020
/ 12:35 AM
MELBOURNE (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Friday as a
massive storm raced inland past the heart of the U.S. oil industry in Louisiana
and Texas without causing any widespread damage to refineries.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 futures fell 6 cents, or
0.1%, to $42.98 a barrel as of 0202 GMT, adding to overnight losses.
However WTI is on track to rise 1.5% rise this week, for a fourth
straight week of gains.
Brent crude LCOc1 futures for October, set to expire on Friday, fell 2
cents to $45.07 a barrel, heading for a weekly gain of 1.6%. The more active
November contract LCOc2 rose 1 cent to $45.61.
Hurricane Laura hit Louisiana early Thursday with 150 mph (240 kph)
winds, damaging buildings, knocking down trees and cutting power to more than
650,000 people in Louisiana and Texas, but refineries were spared from feared
massive flooding.
“Unless there is any lasting damage to oil production infrastructure, it
would not be a surprise to see oil trade down a bit after the storm as damage
assessment continues,” AxiCorp market strategist Stephen Innes said in a note.
U.S. producers had shut 1.56 million barrels per day of crude output, or
83% of the Gulf of Mexico’s production, while nine refineries had shut around
2.9 million bpd of capacity, or 15% of U.S. processing capacity, ahead of the
storm.
Morehttps://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-oil/oil-drifts-down-as-u-s-producers-refiners-avoid-worst-of-storm-idUKKBN25O01H
Ultra-Rich Club Stockpiles Cash as U.S. Economy Fears Grow
Ben Stupples
Tiger 21, a club of more than 800 investors,
reported Thursday that its members have raised their cash holdings to 19% of
their total assets on concerns over the economic consequences of the covid
pandemic in the U.S. That’s up from about 12% since the start of the outbreak.
About a quarter now expect the crisis to continue until the end of next June,
the group said.
“This rise in cash is an extraordinary change
-- statistically, this is the largest, fastest change in asset allocation Tiger
21 has seen,” said Michael Sonnenfeldt, chairman of the club, whose
participants typically have more than $100 million in assets. “In trying to
build resources prudently, members have gained liquidity and will not
immediately reinvest in those areas in order to keep and build cash to weather
this storm.”
With almost 180,000 coronavirus deaths, the
U.S. is among the worst-affected nations from the virus. It endured the worst
recession on record in the second quarter, and economists are increasingly
warning about a prolonged slowdown if lawmakers fail to provide $1 trillion to
$2 trillion in relief funds this fall.
The economic hit from the pandemic has failed
to put a halt to rising stock prices. The S&P 500 Index closed at a peak on
Thursday, taking its rebound from a March low to 56% thanks to continued
support from the Federal Reserve and strength from tech companies catering to
people stuck at home.
That’s also led to about 84% of chief financial officers
now seeing equities as too expensive, according to a quarterly survey conducted
by Deloitte LLP -- the second-highest level in the decade since the accounting
and consulting firm began collecting the data. Only 2% of respondents said U.S.
stocks look cheap.
Finally, in other news, the USA and China rattle their sabres over the South China Sea. Is an October “surprise” there coming next?
U.S., China trade jibes as military tensions worsen
August 27, 2020
/ 5:17 AM
(Reuters) - The United States and China traded jibes as
military tensions grow between the world’s two largest economies, with the U.S.
defence chief vowing not to “cede an inch” in the Pacific and China saying
Washington was risking soldiers’ lives.
Both are at loggerheads over issues from technology and human rights to
Chinese military activities in the disputed South China Sea, with each accusing
the other of deliberately provocative behaviour.
In the latest U.S. move against China ahead of November’s presidential
election, Washington on Wednesday blacklisted 24 Chinese companies and targeted
individuals over construction and military actions in the busy South China Sea
waterway.
In Hawaii, U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper said Beijing is using an
aggressive military modernisation programme in a bid to project power globally.
“To advance the CCP’s agenda, the People’s Liberation Army continues to
pursue an aggressive modernisation plan to achieve a world class military by
the middle of the century,” Esper said, referring to the ruling Chinese
Communist Party.
“This will undoubtedly involve the PLA’s provocative behaviour in the
South and East China Seas, and anywhere else the Chinese government has deemed
critical to its interests.”
However, the United States also wants to “hopefully continue to work
with the People’s Republic of China to get them back on a trajectory that is
more aligned with the international rules based order,” Esper added.
Speaking before a regional tour, Esper described the Indo-Pacific as the
epicentre of a “great power competition with China”.
He added, “We’re not going to cede this region, an inch of ground if you
will, to another country, any other country that thinks their form of
government, their views on human rights, their views on sovereignty, their
views on freedom of the press, freedom of religion, freedom of assembly, all
those things, that somehow that’s better than what many of us share.”
In Beijing, China’s Defence Ministry shot back at “certain U.S.
politicians” it said were damaging Sino-U.S. military ties in the run-up to the
November election for their own selfish gain, even seeking to create military
clashes.
“This kind of behaviour puts the lives of frontline officers and
soldiers on both sides at risk,” spokesman Wu Qian told reporters at a monthly
briefing on Thursday.
China is not scared of “provocation and pressure” from the United
States, and will resolutely defend itself and not allow the United States to
cause trouble, he added.
“We hope the U.S. side will truly adopt a strategic vision, view China’s
development with an open and rational attitude, and leave behind the quagmire
of anxiety and entanglement.”
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-defence-china/u-s-china-trade-jibes-as-military-tensions-worsen-idUKKBN25N0DC?il=0
“If
you're not gonna pull the trigger, don't point the gun.”
James
Baker. United States Secretary of the Treasury under President Ronald Reagan,
and U.S. Secretary of State and White House Chief of Staff under President
George H. W. Bush.
Covid-19 Corner
Korea Strengthens Measures; Indonesia Cases Climb: Virus Update
Bloomberg News
Updated on August 28, 2020, 6:19 AM GMT+1
Abbott Laboratories surged after its 15-minute test won
emergency clearance in the U.S. The government will buy 150 million of the
tests for $750 million, according to people familiar with the matter. The
number of Americans killed by Covid-19 surpassed 180,000. Texas passed 12,000
deaths.Indonesia’s capital extended the implementation of some social distancing measures after the number of infections in Jakarta soared and triggered a record jump in fresh cases nationwide.
South Korea announced stronger social distancing regulations for Seoul as daily coronavirus cases stay near the highest levels since March.
Key Developments:
- Global Tracker: Cases top 24.4 million; deaths pass 831,000
- Hong Kong’s free virus tests for all is an experiment in trust
- World’s deadliest nation for Covid-19 is also Europe’s youngest
- Virus tests spur political brawl over CDC, DOJ inquiry
- Vaccine Tracker: Where we are in the race for protection?
Moderna says COVID-19 vaccine shows immune response in elderly
Aug. 26, 2020 /
2:36 PM
Aug. 26 (UPI) -- Biotechnology company Moderna said Wednesday its COVID-19 vaccine
candidate is showing a strong immune response in older adults.The Massachusetts-based company gave the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention an update on data from its Phase 1 study of the possible vaccine known as mRNA-1273. Moderna is currently conducting Phase III clinical trials.
Moderna said researchers in early testing gave two 100-microgram doses of the vaccine, 28 days apart, to 10 adults between the ages of 56 and 70 and another 10 over age 70.
After two months, those who received the vaccines had COVID-19 antibody levels higher than patients who had recovered from the virus.
"We believe we picked the absolutely right dose" for adults of all ages," Moderna Chief Medical Officer Tal Zaks told the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices.
Moderna said test subjects who received the vaccine candidate showed non-serious side effects, though some reported feeling fatigue, chills, headaches and pain at the injection site. Most symptoms disappeared after two days.
The company said findings from its Phase I trial haven't been peer reviewed, but it has submitted the information to a journal for publication.
Novacyt launches test to differentiate COVID-19 and flu
August 27, 2020
/ 7:35 AM
PARIS (Reuters) - Clinical diagnostics company Novacyt (ALNOV.PA) (NCYT.L), one of many
healthcare companies whose shares have surged during the pandemic, launched a
test on Thursday to differentiate between COVID-19 and common winter diseases. Novacyt said its “Winterplex” test panel included two gene targets specific to COVID-19, as well as gene targets for influenza A&B and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).
“We believe Winterplex™ is one of the world’s first approved respiratory test panels that can differentiate between COVID-19 and other common respiratory diseases,” Novacyt CEO Graham Mullis said.
Novacyt said the new product was expected to drive major revenue growth,
and Novacyt’s Paris-listed shares rose by around 6% in early trading, with the
stock price having already surged by around 1,900% since the start of 2020.
Novacyt’s new polymerase chain reaction (PCR) respiratory test panel is
one of many such ‘PCR’ type products already on the market, aimed at diagnosing
the presence of COVID-19.
The PCR test is the preferred COVID-19 testing method in many countries.
It detects the presence of the disease by amplifying its genetic material to a
point where it can be spotted by scientists.
Some useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
Rt Covid-19
Covid19info.live
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.
New device can measure toxic lead within minutes
Researchers create portable lab-on-a-chip that could detect many contaminants
Date:
August 26, 2020
Source:
Rutgers University
Summary:
Researchers have created a miniature device for measuring trace levels of toxic
lead in sediments at the bottom of harbors, rivers and other waterways within
minutes -- far faster than currently available laboratory-based tests, which
take days. The affordable lab-on-a-chip device could also allow municipalities,
water companies, universities, K-12 schools, daycares and homeowners to easily
and swiftly test their water supplies.
Rutgers researchers have created a miniature device for measuring trace
levels of toxic lead in sediments at the bottom of harbors, rivers and other
waterways within minutes -- far faster than currently available
laboratory-based tests, which take days.
The affordable lab-on-a-chip device could also allow municipalities,
water companies, universities, K-12 schools, daycares and homeowners to easily
and swiftly test their water supplies. The research is published in the IEEE
Sensors Journal.
"In addition to detecting lead contamination in environmental
samples or water in pipes in homes or elementary schools, with a tool like
this, someday you could go to a sushi bar and check whether the fish you
ordered has lead or mercury in it," said senior author Mehdi Javanmard, an
associate professor in the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering in
the School of Engineering at Rutgers University-New Brunswick.
"Detecting toxic metals like lead, mercury and copper normally
requires collecting samples and sending them to a lab for costly analysis, with
results returned in days," Javanmard said. "Our goal was to bypass
this process and build a sensitive, inexpensive device that can easily be
carried around and analyze samples on-site within minutes to rapidly identify
hot spots of contamination."
The research focused on analyzing lead in sediment samples. Many river
sediments in New Jersey and nationwide are contaminated by industrial and other
waste dumped decades ago. Proper management of contaminated dredged materials
from navigational channels is important to limit potential impacts on wildlife,
agriculture, plants and food supplies. Quick identification of contaminated
areas could enable timely and cost-effective programs to manage dredged
materials.
The new device extracts lead from a sediment sample and purifies it,
with a thin film of graphene oxide as a lead detector. Graphene is an atom
thick layer of graphite, the writing material in pencils.
More research is needed to further validate the device's performance and
increase its durability so it can become a viable commercial product, possibly
in two to four years.
Another weekend, and
with the US political conventions now over, the gloves can come off and the dirty
tricks campaigning can really begin. May the best dirty tricks campaign win. It
should be fun to watch. Have a great weekend everyone.
US Politics Betting Odds
The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished July
DJIA: 26,428 -1 Up. NASDAQ: 10,745 +243 Up. SP500:
3,271 +89 Up.
The NASDAQ
has remained up. The DJIA and SP500 have turned up. With stock mania running
fueled by trillions of central bankster new fiat money programs, I would not
rely on the indicators.
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