Thursday 20 August 2020

Stocks - The Super Six.


Baltic Dry Index. 1568 -18  Brent Crude 45.02
Spot Gold 1947

Coronavirus Cases 20/8/20 World 22,493,169
Deaths 795,047

"Liquidation sometimes is orderly, but more frequently degenerates into panic as the realization spreads that there is only so much money, not enough to enable everyone to sell out at the top."

Charles P. Kindleberger,  Manias, Panics and Crashes.

Forget the 60s “nifty fifty.” Just six US stocks, led by Apple, keep the Fed’s US stock bubble, bubbling. What could possibly go wrong? How well did the nifty fifty end?

Well, a mania is a mania, is a mania, until one day out of the blue it isn’t, and everyone and their dog want to sell out at the same time.

Presumably, the Fedsters are going to be the buyers of last resort and end up owning Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Microsoft and Google's parent, Alphabet. At least they’ll look good alongside the Fed’s purchase of bankrupt car rental Hertz’s bonds.

Asian stocks, oil buckle on uncertain U.S. recovery

August 20, 2020 / 1:03 AM
TOKYO/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Asian equities and U.S. futures fell on Thursday, hurt by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s cautious view of the economy, tensions with China and new clusters of coronavirus infections.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slid 1.24%. U.S. stock futures, the S&P 500 e-minis, were down 0.61%. 

Australian stocks dropped 1.04% due to concern that ties with China will worsen further after a report that Australian regulators will reject acquisitions by a Chinese company.

Shares in China fell 0.8%, and Japanese stocks slid 0.77%. South Korean stocks tumbled 2.11% amid a spike in coronavirus cases in Seoul.

Market sentiment had been bullish up until Fed policymakers’ comments highlighted uncertainties over the U.S. recovery, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hitting all-time highs driven largely by Apple Inc..

The iPhone maker’s shares rose 1.4% to make the first publicly listed U.S. company reach $2 trillion in market capitalisation, while strong results from retailers Target and Lowe’s also lifted sentiment.

The positive mood quickly faded however after several Fed members said additional easing may be needed because a rebound in employment was already slowing.

The downbeat tone spilled over into Asia, which weighed on equities and oil futures but pushed gold prices slightly higher due to economic uncertainty.

“It was a decent day for banks, Apple, and Nike but everything else was in the reverse after the Fed said economic conditions will be difficult for a while,” said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group.
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Rising stock market would be in the red without a handful of familiar names

David J. Lynch, The Washington Post
Published

Five hundred companies make up Wall Street's most widely used measure of the stock market's performance: the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index. If it were not for just six of them, the benchmark would be down this year
.
That's the bad news. The good news is that thanks to these six highflying stocks - including Apple, which on Wednesday became the first company to be valued at $2 trillion - the S&P 500 has powered through the coronavirus pandemic to gain almost 5 percent and set a record.

Along with Apple, the overachievers - Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Microsoft and Google's parent, Alphabet - are household names that have leveraged digital expertise to prosper amid the new, socially distanced reality. Through Tuesday, these six stocks collectively were up more than 43 percent this year, while the rest of the companies in the index together lost about 4 percent.

----The market's growing reliance on a handful of technology industry heavyweights, however, underscores a societal dominance that may be distorting investment signals, spawning a winner-take-all economy and warping political debates, critics have said. As the tech-dependent S&P 500 roared back from its pandemic crash earlier this year, these companies faced growing political opposition, including the threat of regulatory action in the United States and Europe aimed at curbing their influence.

"The regulatory environment next year is going to be brutal for these companies. It doesn't make any difference who the [U.S.] president is," said Roger McNamee, co-founder of Elevation Partners, a Silicon Valley private-equity firm. "The issues facing these tech companies are becoming more serious all the time. And the market may not be able to count on them."

The outsize role played by these digital stars also creates risks for individuals trying to save for retirement. Investors have more than $1.1 trillion in mutual funds designed to mimic the S&P 500′s performance. With the stocks Yardeni dubs "the Magnificent Six" accounting for more than one-quarter of the index's value, investors who think they are buying a diversified slice of the broad U.S. stock market are actually making a concentrated bet on companies that share many attributes, analysts said.

----But with most other stocks struggling amid the pandemic's economic wreckage, investors are left with little choice. Amid the stop-and-start nature of some states' reopenings and signs that the economic recovery may be plateauing, these companies have posted the most reliable business results.

----"The dependence on such a small number of megacap stocks is not a healthy sign for the markets or the economy at large," said Michael Farr, chief executive of the investment firm Farr, Miller and Washington. "It's hard to determine what will knock the halos off these companies' heads. My best guess is that it will take a more definitive improvement in the economic growth outlook or rising interest rates."

This new two-track market was highlighted on Wednesday when Apple briefly became the first stock to be valued at $2 trillion, before closing just below that mark as the market dipped. Since 2017, the Silicon Valley giant has rolled out a succession of new iPhones, braved President Donald Trump's trade wars, and navigated a global pandemic, all while more than tripling its market value.
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The Federal Reserve's actions since the late 1980's remind me of the old story about the playboy son of an old robber baron. Seeking to impress his father he studied the stock tables until he found a small company he thought had merit. He ordered his broker to buy 5,000 shares. When he checked again the next week, he saw that its price had risen and he knew he was correct in his earlier judgement. He ordered his broker to buy 5,000 more. The next week it was higher again. Determined to prove to his father he could make his own fortune, he continued his buying for a year. The stock continued in its impressive gains.

At length it came time to show his father his prowess. He called his broker immediately and ordered him to sell. "To whom, sir ?" came back the jaunty reply.

When the FED's game ends, for whatever reason, to whom do the mutual funds unload ?

Unsound At Any Price, 1995.

But what about selling to the Fed? It's only fiat money and there's plenty more where that comes from.

Covid-19 Corner                       

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

India reports record daily jump of 69,672 in coronavirus infections

August 20, 2020 / 5:13 AM
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-india-cases/india-reports-record-daily-jump-of-69672-in-coronavirus-infections-idUKKCN25G0CG?il=0

Endless first wave: how Indonesia failed to control coronavirus

August 20, 2020 / 2:10 AM
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-indonesia-insight/endless-first-wave-how-indonesia-failed-to-control-coronavirus-idUKKCN25G02V

As U.S. schools reopen, concerns grow that kids spread coronavirus

August 20, 2020 / 5:30 AM
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-children/as-u-s-schools-reopen-concerns-grow-that-kids-spread-coronavirus-idUKKCN25G0CY

Johns Hopkins scientists examining weird side effects of COVID-19 suggest one way coronavirus ‘gains a foothold in the body’

Published: Aug. 19, 2020 at 11:22 a.m. ET
It’s an odd side effect. But could it provide clues as to how coronavirus attacks the body?

Why do some people with COVID-19 lose their sense of smell? And what can be learned from that? 
Scientists studying tissue removed from patients’ noses during surgery believe they may have discovered the reason why so many people with COVID-19 lose their sense of smell, even when they have no other symptoms and, as a result, one way the virus enters the body.

In a study published in the European Respiratory Journal on Wednesday, the researchers found extremely high levels of “angiotensin converting enzyme II,” or ACE-2, only in the area of the nose responsible for smelling. The ACE-2 enzyme is thought to be the gateway that allows coronavirus to enter the cells of the body and cause an infection.

Researchers at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine in Baltimore conducted the study, led by Professor Andrew Lane, director of the division of rhinology and skull base surgery, and Dr. Mengfei Chen, a research associate. They used fluorescent dyes on the tissue samples to detect and visualize the presence of ACE-2 in the nose cells.

----“This technique allowed us to see that the levels of ACE-2 — the COVID-19 ‘entry point’ protein were highest in the part of the nose that enables us to smell,” Chen said. “These results suggest that this area of the nose could be where the coronavirus is gaining entry to the body.” They found the most ACE-2 on the lining cells of the “olfactory epithelium” at the back of the nose where we detect smells.

In fact, the levels of ACE-2 in these cells was between 200 and 700 times higher than other tissue in the nose and trachea, Chen said, and they found similarly high levels in all the samples of olfactory epithelium. The ACE-2 enzyme was not detected on olfactory neurons, the nerve cells that pass information about smells to the brain.

“The olfactory epithelium is quite an easy part of the body for a virus to reach, it’s not buried away deep in our body, and the very high levels of ACE-2 that we found there might explain why it’s so easy to catch COVID-19,” Chen said. Lane added that this research may enable doctors to tackle the infection with antiviral therapies delivered directly through the nose.
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Hydroxychloroquine: An Open Letter to Our Community and Beyond

August 03, 2020
To our friends and colleagues around the country and globe:
We believe wholeheartedly that a mission statement is more than a plaque we hang on a wall, but rather an idea we embed in our hearts and minds that unifies, empowers and enables us to do what we do every day for the people of our communities. 

Our mission is to improve people’s lives through excellence in the science and art of health care and healing. For more than 100 years, we have proudly pioneered clinical and scientific breakthroughs that have advanced health care here and abroad.

As an early hotspot for the COVID-19 pandemic, we have seen and lived its devastating effects alongside our patients and families. Perhaps that’s what makes us even more determined to rally our researchers, frontline care team members and leaders together in boldness, participating in scientific research, including clinical trials, to find the safest care and most effective treatments. While feeling the same sense of urgency everyone else does to recognize a simple, single remedy for COVID-19, we need to be realistic in the time it takes to fully understand the optimal therapy or combination of therapies required of a new virus we are all trying to contain.

The most well-accepted and definitive method to determine the efficacy of a treatment is a double-blind, randomized clinical trial. However, this type of study takes a long time to design, execute and analyze. Therefore, a whole scientific field exists in which scientists examine how a drug is working in the real world to get as best an answer as they can as soon as possible. These types of studies can be done much more rapidly with data that is already available, usually from medical records.
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Find the Letter to the Editor here: https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30604-4/fulltext

Find the Study here: https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30534-8/fulltext

Doctors Pen Open Letter To Fauci Regarding The Use Of Hydroxychloroquine for Treating COVID-19

August 12, 2020

Anthony Fauci, MD
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
Washington, D.C.

Dear Dr. Fauci:
---- You are largely unchallenged in terms of your medical opinions. You are the de facto “COVID-19 Czar”. This is unusual in the medical profession in which doctors’ opinions are challenged by other physicians in the form of exchanges between doctors at hospitals, medical conferences, as well as debate in medical journals. You render your opinions unchallenged, without formal public opposition from physicians who passionately disagree with you. It is incontestable that the public is best served when opinions and policy are based on the prevailing evidence and science, and able to withstand the scrutiny of medical professionals.

As experience accrued in treating COVID-19 infections, physicians worldwide discovered that high-risk patients can be treated successfully as an outpatient, within the first 5 to 7 days of the onset of symptoms, with a “cocktail” consisting of hydroxychloroquine, zinc, and azithromycin (or doxycycline). Multiple scholarly contributions to the literature detail the efficacy of the hydroxychloroquine-based combination treatment.

Questions regarding early outpatient treatment
  1. There are generally two stages of COVID-19 symptomatic infection; initial flu like symptoms with progression to cytokine storm and respiratory failure, correct?
  2. When people are admitted to a hospital, they generally are in worse condition, correct?
  3. There are no specific medications currently recommended for early outpatient treatment of symptomatic COVID-19 infection, correct?
  4. Remdesivir and Dexamethasone are used for hospitalized patients, correct?
  5. There is currently no recommended pharmacologic early outpatient treatment for individuals in the flu stage of the illness, correct?
  6. It is true that COVID-19 is much more lethal than the flu for high-risk individuals such as older patients and those with significant comorbidities, correct?
  7. Individuals with signs of early COVID-19 infection typically have a runny nose, fever, cough, shortness of breath, loss of smell, etc., and physicians send them home to rest, eat chicken soup etc., but offer no specific, targeted medications, correct?
  8. These high-risk individuals are at high risk of death, on the order of 15% or higher, correct?
  9. So just so we are clear—the current standard of care now is to send clinically stable symptomatic patients home, “with a wait and see” approach?
  10. Are you aware that physicians are successfully using Hydroxychloroquine combined with Zinc and Azithromycin as a “cocktail” for early outpatient treatment of symptomatic, high-risk, individuals?
  11. Have you heard of the “Zelenko Protocol,” for treating high-risk patients with COVID 19 as an outpatient?
  12. Have you read Dr. Risch’s article in the American Journal of Epidemiology of the early outpatient treatment of COVID-19?
  13. Are you aware that physicians using the medication combination or “cocktail” recommend use within the first 5 to 7 days of the onset of symptoms, before the illness impacts the lungs, or cytokine storm evolves?
  14. Again, to be clear, your recommendation is no pharmacologic treatment as an outpatient for the flu—like symptoms in patients that are stable, regardless of their risk factors, correct?
Questions regarding safety
  1. The FDA writes the following: “in light of on-going serious cardiac adverse events and their serious side effects, the known and potential benefits of CQ and HCQ no longer outweigh the known and potential risks for authorized use.”So not only is the FDA saying that Hydroxychloroquine doesn’t work, they are also saying that it is a very dangerous drug. Yet, is it not true the drug has been used as an anti-malarial drug for over 65 years?
  2. Isn’t true that the drug has been used for lupus and rheumatoid arthritis for many years at similar doses?
  3. Do you know of even a single study prior to COVID -19 that has provided definitive evidence against the use of the drug based on safety concerns?
6  To put this in perspective, the drug is used for 65 years, without warnings (aside for the need for periodic retinal checks), but the FDA somehow feels the need to send out an alert on June 15, 2020 that the drug is dangerous. Does that make any logical sense to you Dr. Fauci based on “science”?
7  Moreover, consider that the protocols for usage in early treatment are for 5 to 7 days at relatively low doses of hydroxychloroquine similar to what is being given in other diseases (RA, SLE) over many years- does it make any sense to you logically that a 5 to 7 day dose of hydroxychloroquine when not given in high doses could be considered dangerous?
8  You are also aware that articles published in the New England Journal of Medicine and Lancet, one out of Harvard University, regarding the dangers of hydroxychloroquine had to be retracted based on the fact that the data was fabricated. Are you aware of that?
9 If there was such good data on the risks of hydroxychloroquine, one would not have to use fake data, correct?
10  After all, 65 years is a long-time to determine whether or not a drug is safe, do you agree?
11  In the clinical trials that you have referenced (e.g., the Minnesota and the Brazil studies), there was not a single death attributed directly to hydroxychloroquine, correct?
12  According to Dr. Risch, there is no evidence based on the data to conclude that hydroxychloroquine is a dangerous drug. Are you aware of any published report that rebuts Dr. Risch’s findings?
More, much, much, more.

Some useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

Rt Covid-19

Covid19info.live

Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.

Are virtual power plants the future of solar power?

By Hannah Sinclair  Posted 18 August, 2020 at 9:13pm.
When maths teacher Katie Brooks was searching for a new apartment, the solar panels on the rooftop of the Fremantle complex she eventually settled on were a big drawcard.

Ms Brooks said utilising solar energy had helped her save money on power bills.

"I budget every single dollar that I have," she told 7.30.

"I know exactly where all my money goes and being able to track my power bills, know how much they are, and put money aside also means I can then save for my future goals."

The 35-year-old spends just $50 per month on her power bill, but she also makes money because residents in the apartment complex can sell surplus energy to their neighbours in the same building.

"We probably make $5 to $10 a month," Ms Brooks said.

"Quite a few of our residents are semi-retired, so if they're doing their washing, running the dishwasher, running the air conditioning, if it's a hot day and I'm at work and I'm not using any of my energy, then they can purchase my allocation before we buy from the grid.

"So I get a little bit of money back."

The building in Fremantle's White Gum Valley, uses technology created by Australian start-up Power Ledger.

The online software allows residents to trade solar energy in real time and will be rolled out across another 10 developments in Perth over the next three years.

According to solar energy consultants, SunWiz, at least 28,000 home energy storage systems are predicted to be installed across the nation this year.

Adam McHugh, a Perth-based energy analyst at Murdoch University, said it was estimated more than 45 per cent of all households in Western Australia would have rooftop solar by 2025.

"The challenges are already starting to emerge and really Western Australia is ground zero for this energy transition," Mr McHugh told 7.30.

Mr McHugh said solar power needed to "smarten up" so the energy grid was not overloaded with power — leading to potential blackouts.

"So the original solar systems that were put in place weren't designed for considering anyone else other than the owner of that sole system.

"What we want to do is be able to control them in a very precise way, so that they can provide the ability to balance supply and demand in real time."
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UK’s Nato purpose: “to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down.”

The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished July

DJIA: 26,428 -1 Up. NASDAQ: 10,745 +243 Up. SP500: 3,271 +89 Up.

The NASDAQ has remained up. The DJIA and SP500 have turned up. With stock mania running fueled by trillions of central bankster new fiat money programs, I would not rely on the indicators.

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