Baltic Dry Index. 1350 +02 Brent Crude 43.37
Spot Gold 1974
Coronavirus Cases 3/8/20 World 18,220,403
Deaths 691,851
August 3, 1914. Belgium
rejects the German demand to allow free crossing of Belgium for the German
Army. Germany then invades Belgium and declares war on France. The war in the
west commences.
GB, guarantor of Belgian neutrality, demands Germany stop and
make preparations to evacuate from Belgium.
August 4, 1914
- Great Britain declares war on Germany.
This
week, the “good” news from Asian economies. The “bad” news from HSBC bank, a
pawn in the fight between Trump and Huawei. And the “ugly” suicide US economy shutdown plan from the Minneapolis
Fed.
Stay
long precious metals in case anyone is tempted to try it.
Later
in the week, the latest official US employment numbers.
Asia stocks cautiously mixed, dollar tries to bounce
August 3, 2020 /
1:28 AM
SYDNEY
(Reuters) - Asian share markets turned mixed on Monday as U.S. lawmakers
struggled to hammer out a new stimulus plan amid a global surge of new
coronavirus cases, though a squeeze on crowded short positions gave the dollar
a rare bounce.
Sentiment was helped by a survey showing China’s factory activity expanded at the fastest pace in nearly a decade in July, with the Caixin/Markit PMI at 52.8.
That lifted Chinese blue chips 0.9% .CSI300. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS dipped 0.2%, though that was from a six-month top.
Japan's Nikkei .N225 added 2.1% courtesy of a pullback in the yen, while South Korea shares .KS11 were flat.
E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 ESc1 inched up 0.1%, while EUROSTOXX 50 futures STXEc1 and FTSE futures FFIc1 were little changed.
Investors were nervous at the lack of a new stimulus package in the United States with White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows not optimistic on reaching agreement soon on a deal.
On Friday, Fitch Ratings cut the outlook on the United States’ triple-A rating to negative from stable, citing eroding credit strength and a ballooning deficit.
The credit rating agency also said the future direction of U.S. fiscal policy depends in part on the November election and the resulting makeup of Congress, cautioning there is a risk policy gridlock could continue.
Strong results from tech giants helped the S&P 500 climb 5.5% last month, while the NASDAQ rose 6.8%. Other sectors, however, did not fair nearly as well as many states rowed back on opening their economies in the face of surging infections.
“Amid improvements in business sentiment, signals are emerging that the
initial boost from pent-up demand is fading and consumer confidence is slipping
lower,” wrote economists at Barclays in a note.
“Together with concerns about labour market and virus developments, this
clouds the outlook and could be exacerbated if U.S. fiscal support is not
renewed in time.”
Much will depend on what key data show this week including the ISM
survey of manufacturing later on Monday and the crucial payrolls report on
Friday.
More
Asia's factory pain eases as China's activity jumps
August 3, 2020 /
4:03 AM
TOKYO
(Reuters) - Asia’s factory pain continued to ease in July with contraction
slowing in big export-reliant nations, adding to hopes the region is steadily
emerging from the devastating hit of the coronavirus pandemic.
Manufacturing activity in China expanded at the fastest pace in nearly a
decade as domestic demand improved, a private sector survey showed on Monday,
suggesting the world’s second-largest economy will help cushion the pandemic’s
blow to world growth.
But worries about a second wave of infections may weigh on global demand
and business sentiment, keeping any rebound in Asia’s factory output feeble,
some analysts say.
Japan, for one, will enjoy only a “very gradual and protracted recovery”
as concerns about a resurgence in COVID-19 cases will weigh on domestic and
overseas spending, said Stefan Angrick, senior economist at Oxford Economics.
“With the pace of recovery slowing in some of Japan’s key trading
partners, exports and business spending are likely to continue to struggle,” he
said.
China’s Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index(PMI) rose
to 52.8 last month from June’s 51.2, marking the sector’s third consecutive
month of growth and the biggest jump since January 2011.
The upbeat findings echoed an official survey on Friday, adding to
evidence the world’s second-largest economy is getting back on its feet faster
than expected.
Japan and South Korea saw factory activity shrink at a much slower pace,
a sign that pressures on manufacturers were easing and raising hopes the worst
impact from the pandemic was over.
Taiwan’s manufacturing activity also rose above the 50-mark separating
growth from contraction, suggesting that increased demand for work-from-home
equipment is underpinning chip sales.
More
HSBC profits hammered by pandemic and soaring US-China tensions
Issued
on:
HSBC on Monday said profits for the first half of 2020 plunged by 69 percent
on year as the banking giant was hammered by the coronavirus pandemic and
spiralling China-US tensions.
The lender reported post-tax profits of $3.1 billion while pre-tax
profit was $4.3 billion, a 64 percent drop on the same period last year. Reported
revenue was down nine percent at $26.7 billion.
Chief executive Noel Quinn described the first six months of the year as
"some of the most challenging in living memory".
"Our first-half performance was impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic,
falling interest rates, increased geopolitical risk and heightened levels of
market volatility," he said in a statement to the Hong Kong stock
exchange,
Even by the standards of the current economic maelstrom engulfing global
banks, HSBC has had a torrid year.
Before the coronavirus crisis it was beset by disappointing profit
growth, ground down by US-China trade war uncertainties and Britain's departure
from the European Union.
The Asia-focused lender embarked on a huge cost-cutting initiative at
the start of the year, including plans to slash some 35,000 jobs as well as
trimming fat from less profitable divisions, primarily in the United States and
Europe.
The coronavirus upended some of that cost-cutting drive with banks
hammered by market volatility and the economic slowdown caused by the pandemic.
But HSBC has a further headache -- geopolitical tensions via its status
as a major business conduit between China and the West.
HSBC makes 90 percent of its profit in Asia, with China and Hong Kong
being the major drivers of growth.
As a result it has found itself more vulnerable than most to the
crossfire caused by the increasingly bellicose relationship between Beijing and
Washington.
The bank has tried to stay in Beijing's good graces.
It vocally backed a draconian national security law that Beijing imposed
on Hong Kong in June to end a year of unrest and pro-democracy protests.
The move sparked criticism in Washington and London but analysts saw it
as an attempt to protect its access to China, which has a track record of
punishing businesses that do not toe Beijing's line.
But that has not shielded it from Beijing's wrath.
Last month the bank was a subject of multiple reports in China's
state-run media claiming that it had helped to provide the evidence that led to
the arrest in Canada of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou on a US arrest warrant.
More
https://www.france24.com/en/20200803-hsbc-profits-hammered-by-pandemic-and-soaring-us-china-tensions
Finally,
the Minneapolis Fed shares its suicide plan for the US economy. Unintentionally
its screaming buy gold and silver.
Fed's Kashkari suggests four to six week shutdown; says U.S. Congress can spend big on coronavirus relief
The economy, which in the second
quarter suffered its biggest blow since the Great Depression, would be able to
mount a robust recovery, but only if the virus were brought under control, Neel
Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank, told CBS’ “Face
the Nation.”[Sunday.]
“If we don’t do that and we just have this raging virus spreading
throughout the country with flare-ups and local lockdowns for the next year or
two, which is entirely possible, we’re going to see many, many more business
bankruptcies,” Kashkari said.
“That’s going to be a much slower recovery for all of us.”
He said Congress is positioned to spend big on coronavirus relief
efforts because the nation’s budget gap can be financed without relying on
foreign borrowing, given how much Americans are saving.
“Those of us who are fortunate enough to still have our jobs, we’re
saving a lot more money because we’re not going to restaurants or movie
theaters or vacations,” Kashkari said.
“That actually means that we have a lot more resources as a country to
support those who have been laid off,” he said.
More
The
next great European war will probably come out of some damned foolish thing in
the Balkans.”
Otto von Bismarck, German statesman, 1888.
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Global Cases Top 18 Million; Lockdowns Increase: Virus Update
Bloomberg News
Updated on August 3, 2020, 5:18 AM GMT+1
Global coronavirus cases surpassed 18 million as the
pandemic is now adding a million infections every four days, prompting more
lockdowns.Australia’s Victoria state tightened restrictions and declared a state of disaster, while the Philippines reimposed a lockdown in Manila. Vietnam will test all residents of Danang as an outbreak threatens to widen. The U.K. is looking at all options for tackling flare-ups, following reports that a London-wide lockdown is being considered.
White House coronavirus task force head Deborah Birx said the pandemic is in a “new phase” as it spreads across U.S. rural and urban areas. India’s home minister tested positive.
Key Developments
- Global Tracker: Global cases top 18 million; deaths pass 688,000
- U.K. reviewing Covid-fighting options including London lockdown
- Facing fierce new waves, virus hunters turn to sewage and drones
- How vaccine nationalism could extend pandemic’s run: QuickTake
More
Coronavirus pandemic will be with us for a long time, WHO warns
Issued on: 01/08/2020 - 20:45
The World Health Organization on Saturday warned the
coronavirus pandemic was likely to be "lengthy" after its emergency
committee met to evaluate the crisis six months after sounding the
international alarm.
The committee "highlighted the anticipated lengthy duration of this COVID-19 pandemic", the WHO said in a statement, and warned of the risk of "response fatigue" given the socio-economic pressures on countries.
The panel gathered Friday for the fourth time over the coronavirus crisis, half a year on from its January 30 declaration of a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) -- the WHO's highest level of alarm.
"WHO continues to assess the global risk level of COVID-19 to be very high," said its latest statement.
"The committee highlighted the anticipated lengthy duration of this COVID-19 pandemic, noting the importance of sustained community, national, regional, and global response efforts."
----Unsurprisingly, the panel, comprising 18 members and 12 advisers, unanimously agreed that the pandemic still constituted a PHEIC.
Crisis fatigue warning
Several countries around the world have imposed strict lockdowns in a
bid to control the spread of the respiratory disease, plunging economies into
sharp contraction.
The committee urged the WHO to provide nuanced, pragmatic guidance on
COVID-19 reactions "to reduce the risk of response fatigue in the context
of socio-economic pressures".
The panel urged the WHO to support countries in preparing for the
rollout of proven therapeutics and vaccines.
The committee also urged the agency to accelerate research into the
remaining "critical unknowns" of the virus, such as the animal source
and potential animal reservoirs.
It called for improved understanding of the epidemiology and severity of
COVID-19, including its long-term health effects.
And the committee wanted more light shed on the dynamics of the virus,
such as "modes of transmission, shedding, potential mutations; immunity
and correlates of protection".
The near six-hour gathering was hosted at the WHO's headquarters in
Geneva, with some participants joining via video-link.
The committee will reconvene in three months' time.
More
What Happens When Flu Meets Covid-19?
How seasonal viruses interact with the coronavirus is unknown—it may lessen or sharpen the pandemic—so flu vaccinations are vital.
Optimists had hoped Covid-19 might not withstand the blistering heat of
a British summer. However those hopes have faded: the virus staged a recent
resurgence in Iran amid actual blistering temperatures, and has had no trouble
persisting in sultry Singapore.
But what happens to Covid-19, and us, when the rain and chill – and flu
and sniffles – of autumn set in? Especially, how will the annual winter flu
epidemic play out amid a Covid-19 pandemic?
One thing is a given. “We can expect waves of Covid in the fall,” says
virologist Ab Osterhaus of the Research Centre for Emerging Infections and
Zoonoses in Hanover. By then, he hopes, we might be better at treating severe
cases, and more countries might be able to test, trace and quarantine all cases
and their contacts, and contain the virus, better than they can now.
The biggest worry in the UK is that hospitals can struggle to cope with
the winter flu season. This year they will have to cope with Covid-19 as well,
which shows no sign of going away by then, and could even surge if it turns out
that cold temperatures, or the circulation of other autumn and winter viruses,
boost its spread.
The first problem will be figuring out which virus a patient has. Flu,
Covid-19 and other seasonal respiratory diseases are virtually
indistinguishable on the basis of symptoms, warns Barbara Rath of the
University of Nottingham: even the loss of taste and smell many people get with
Covid-19 is not unique. We need more and better diagnostic tests, she says,
because the difference matters: medical staff need full protective gear to
manage a Covid patient, but they can be vaccinated for flu.
More
Australian state of Victoria imposes curfew, state of disaster to contain coronavirus
2 August 2020 02:15 pm JST
A state of disaster was declared in Australia's Victoria on Sunday, with
the local government implementing a night curfew as part of its harshest
movement restrictions to date to contain the coronavirus.
The curfew will be implemented from 8 p.m. to 5 a.m.
State Premier Daniel Andrews said that the new restrictions, to be in
place for six weeks until mid-September, will allow only one person per
household to go shopping once a day. Melbournians will not be able to go
further than 5 km from home.
The Australian government expressed support for the strictest measures
yet by the state in an effort to contain the new coronavirus.
Melbourne is already under a reimposed six-week stay-home order, but it
has been struggling to rein in COVID-19. Record numbers of new infections of
the virus that causes the disease were reported last week, prompting warnings
of further restrictions.
Australia has recorded around 17,300 coronavirus cases and 201 COVID-19
deaths, but the recent surge in Victoria has proven difficult to contain.
Melbournians will be allowed to go out for work, essential shopping,
medical care and exercise.
The measures would limit transport options and affect many retail
outlets. Restaurants, which allow now for delivery and take-away options would
be limited to contact-less pick-up orders, Melbourne newspapers reported.
Movement restrictions and business operations would also be limited in
the rest of the state, but not to the same level as in Melbourne.
Some useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
Rt Covid-19
Covid19info.live
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.
Serendipity broadens the scope for making graphite
Date:
July 24, 2020
Source:
Curtin University
Summary:
Researchers have unexpectedly discovered a new way to make crystalline
graphite, an essential material used in the making of lithium ion batteries.
Described in a research paper published today in Nature's
Communications Materials, the new technique does not require the typical
metal catalysts or special raw materials to turn carbon into crystalline
graphite. Interestingly it was instead discovered by a research student in a
lab, using an Atomic Absorption Spectrometer (AAS) -- a piece of equipment,
invented in Australia in the 1950s and developed to analyse the composition of
liquids.
The Master-level student behind the discovery, Mr Jason Fogg, said that
while the exact science behind why this new technique works is still to be
confirmed, he believes it relates to the specific way the AAS heats the samples
through short fast pulses.
"We used a special furnace that can heat the sample to 3000 degrees
Celsius in seconds, something most furnaces cannot achieve," Mr Fogg said.
"To put the temperature into perspective, 3000 degrees Celsius is
equal to about half the surface temperature of the Sun."
Dr Irene Suarez-Martinez, from Curtin's School of Electrical
Engineering, Computing and Mathematical Sciences, said that while graphite is
the most stable form of carbon, most carbon materials stubbornly refuse to turn
into graphite, which is why she was absolutely shocked to learn about Mr Fogg's
results.
"When he told me that he created perfect crystalline graphite from
a known non-graphitising carbon material, I could not believe it, I was
absolutely amazed at the results. It was only when we repeated the results
three times that I was convinced," Dr Suarez-Martinez said.
The most astonishing result involved the polymer polyvinylidene chloride
(PVDC), which Dr Suarez-Martinez described as a 'textbook example' of a very
stubborn material.
As the world's demand for lithium ion batteries increases, scientists
expect the commercial demand for crystalline graphite to also increase, and
this research team is now determined to work out the precise details of why
this special pulse heating method was so effective.
----
"Right now we're only able to create very small amounts of crystalline
graphite, so we are far from being able to reproduce this process on a
commercial-level. But we plan to explore our method and hypotheses
further."
“His Majesty’s Government
cannot for a moment entertain the [German] Chancellor’s proposal that they
should bind themselves to neutrality on such terms … Such a proposal is
unacceptable, for France could be so crushed as to lose her position as a Great
Power, and become subordinate to German policy.”
Sir
Edward Grey, British foreign minister, 1914.
The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished July
DJIA: 26,428 -1 Up. NASDAQ: 10,745 +243 Up. SP500:
3,271 +89 Up.
The NASDAQ
has remained up. The DJIA and SP500 have turned up. With stock mania running
fueled by trillions of central bankster new fiat money programs, I would not
rely on the indicators.
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