Friday, 21 August 2020

Trillions Spent, Trillions More Needed!


Baltic Dry Index. 1518 -50  Brent Crude 45.06
Spot Gold 1950

Coronavirus Cases 21/8/20 World 22,755,186
Deaths 801,120

“Power is not a means; it is an end. One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship. The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power”

George Orwell 1984.

Don’t look now but global cases of Covid-19 are about to hit 23 million later today.

In slightly better news, new deaths aren’t keeping up, possibly down to better medical responses as we gain more knowledge of how Covid-19 develops, possibly down to Covid-19 having mostly already culled the weakest, possibly down to fraudulent statistics.

In global economy news, it’s spend, spend, spend, newly created fiat money out of thin air as fast as possible, but stocks and gold aside, all the trillions of new fiat money has accomplished is to keep the G-7 economies lingering on in the central banksters ICU ward.

But all that is about to blow up, unless governments come up with a relief program for defaulting renters, mortgage holders, and badly affected landlords.

With eviction moratoriums about to end, hundreds of thousands of defaulting renters are facing the start of imminent eviction proceedings.  Things will turn ugly in a hurry after that.

Record-breaking stocks take a breather, data weighs on dollar

August 21, 2020 / 1:01 AM
SINGAPORE/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Asia’s stock markets bounced on Friday following Wall Street’s lead, but were set for their softest week in about a month as investors grapple with tepid economic data and lofty valuations after a huge rally that has wiped out coronavirus losses.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS rose 0.6% on Friday, though it is it poised to snap a four-week winning streak with a small weekly loss.

Japan's Nikkei .N225 edged up 0.3% but was headed for a 1.5% weekly drop, while a bond market selloff has also moderated in recent days as caution and summer-time lassitude weighs on the mood after the S&P 500 .SPX touched another record intraday peak.

Another surge in tech stocks took the Nasdaq .IXIC to a new all-time closing high.

“It’s always going to be a little harder, once that’s happened, to figure out where things are going,” said ING’s head of Asia research, Rob Carnell of the U.S. stock market.

In the absence of a disaster, he said, upward drift is probably the most likely direction, though perhaps with less conviction than the exuberance that has driven world stocks .MIWD00000PUS up 50% from March troughs.

---- Overnight, clouds returned to the U.S. labour market outlook, with weekly jobless claims back over a million to put the total number of Americans on unemployment benefits at 28 million.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s business index also missed expectations and together the weak readings pushed down nominal U.S. yields and dragged on the dollar. Benchmark U.S. 10-year debt US10YT=RR yields were last steady at 0.6558%.

Investors are looking ahead to purchasing managers’ index surveys across Europe, Britain and the United States - where steady, slightly positive, readings are expected - for the next broad gauge of the recovery’s progress.

Japan’s factory activity fell in August for a 16th month, a private business survey showed, casting doubt over manufacturers’ hopes for a rapid recovery.
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Gold to Gain on Massive Currency Debasement, SkyBridge Says

By Ranjeetha Pakiam
Updated on August 20, 2020, 10:01 AM GMT+1
·        
Bullion is seen by co-CIO Gayeski as a ‘natural alternative’
·         Prices may climb to $2,200 as central banks fight the pandemic

Gold will extend its record-setting rally on “massive currency debasement” and expectations for further stimulus, according to SkyBridge Capital, which recently added exposure to the metal after exiting in 2011.

“When you think of currency debasement the question is, what is the dollar going to weaken against, and when you look around the globe, it’s hard to be excited about alternative currencies,” said Troy Gayeski, co-chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager, listing the euro, yuan and emerging-market monies. “So, gold is obviously a natural alternative currency.”
More

IRS predicts 37M fewer regular jobs than before pandemic

Aug. 20, 2020 / 4:08 PM
Aug. 20 (UPI) -- The Internal Revenue Service predicted Thursday the United States would have about 229 million employee-classified jobs in 2021 -- 37 million fewer than it estimated before COVID-19 pandemic hit.

The new IRS estimate of the number of jobs that will require W-2 filings in 2021 is lower than the 266 million jobs predicted before the pandemic. 

It also predicted the lower estimates of jobs would continue through 2027, with about 16 million fewer W-2 forms filed that year than estimated before COVID-19 hit.

Meanwhile, the IRS estimated 1.6 million more gig jobs that require 1099-MISC tax forms in 2021 than it it did before the pandemic.

The gig work increase "likely reflects assumptions with the shift to 'work from home,' which may be gig workers, or may just be that businesses are more willing to outsource work -- or have the status of their workers be independent contractors -- now that they work from home," Action Economics Chief Economist Mike Englund said.

The IRS job predictions for next year come amid new unemployment claims climbing to 1.1 million, an increase of 135,000 from the previous week, the Labor Department said in its weekly report Thursday.

The report listed the unemployment rate at 10.2%.

Next, as goes New York City real estate, so goes London, Paris, Hong Kong, and China? Is China’s great property bubble about to burst?

With looting, boarded up stores, an extreme far left Mayor not supporting law and order, and neo-communist Democrat Socialists proposing “wealth taxes,” aka theft, why would most billionaires want to remain in the NYC version of Caracas?

Covid-19 Pounds New York Real Estate Worse Than 9/11, Financial Crash

The city’s high-end market was dealt an unprecedented blow by the coronavirus lockdown. Can it ever fully recover?

Aug. 20, 2020 12:00 pm ET
The Covid-19 crisis has delivered a stunning gut-punch to the New York City luxury real-estate market, applying downward pressure at a rate that surpasses both the 2008 financial crisis and the period immediately following the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

In the West Chelsea district, a recently built ultra high-end boutique condominium known as the Getty slashed prices for its remaining units by as much as 46%. One full-floor, four-bedroom apartment at the Peter Marino-designed building was lowered to $10.475 million from $19.5 million.

“Truth be told, you need to do something drastic and dramatic to attract attention,” said Ran Korolik, a partner at Victor Group, a developer of the project. “I didn’t want to reduce prices by 15% or 20% and then have someone come along and try to negotiate another 15% or 20%.”

The crisis comes at a time when sales and prices in the luxury market were already under pressure. “It’s not like New York City is all of a sudden on sale. New York has been on sale for the past 24 months,” said Tal Alexander, a luxury agent with Douglas Elliman. “Sellers who are motivated and want to do deals need to add on another layer of discount.”

The numbers are unprecedented. Between March 23 and August 16, sales of Manhattan homes were off 56% year-over-year, according to UrbanDigs, a real-estate data site. For properties priced at $4 million or above, sales were down about 67%.

New listings were down by 21%, while new listings priced at $4 million and above were down by almost 35%. For luxury homes sold in the second quarter, prices were also down by about 11%, according to a report by Douglas Elliman.

That slowdown was driven in large part by New York’s strict lockdown during the worst of the city’s crisis. Prohibited from showing properties in person, agents had to rely entirely on virtual tours, which most said were of limited value. The subsequent protests and riots following the killing of George Floyd also rocked the city, and resulted in the boarding up of stores, museums and restaurants that had already been closed because of the virus.

Adding to the storm: Real-estate agents said Manhattan sales inevitably slow in a presidential election year, perhaps because buyers waver amid uncertainty. And some agents believe wealthy home buyers have been discouraged by recently enacted taxes on high-end home purchases. Calls by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and other Democrats to address the pandemic-fueled economic crisis by further taxing billionaires who live in New York state have only fueled those concerns.

Many of those wealthy New Yorkers have decamped to the Hamptons or to Palm Beach, Fla., amid the pandemic and haven’t returned, a point bemoaned by New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who jokingly offered to buy drinks for high-net worth New Yorkers who would return to shore up the city’s tax base. He has opposed placing a further tax on billionaires, who make up much of that tax base, for fear of driving them permanently out of the city.
More

Finally, more on that over active Atlantic hurricane season. Do fleeing NYC billionaires really want to relocate to Palm Beach, Boca Raton, or Fisher Island?

Tropical Depressions Thirteen and Fourteen: Track the Storms

2 hours ago  weather.com

For the first time since the Great Depression, it's possible that two tropical systems could make landfall in the mainland United States at virtually the same time. There will be a lot to keep track of, so bookmark this landing page as your go-to for important information and maps on both tropical systems.

Tropical Depression Thirteen

Tropical Depression Thirteen will affect the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands as a tropical storm with rain and gusty winds by this weekend. This system may then head toward Florida and the Gulf of Mexico early next week, possibly as a hurricane. However, its forecast intensity and track at that time are highly uncertain.

For the full forecast, click here.

Tropical Depression Fourteen

Tropical Depression Fourteen has formed in the Caribbean Sea and is expected to first impact parts of Central America and Mexico as a tropical storm or hurricane before emerging into the western Gulf of Mexico. This system faces an uncertain future in the western Gulf of Mexico, but it could affect parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast next week as a hurricane.

For the full forecast, click here.
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-08-20-tropical-depression-thirteen-fourteen-laura-marco-tracker

Covid-19 Corner                       

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

South Korea on Brink; Pfizer Vaccine Progresses: Virus Update

Bloomberg News
Updated on August 21, 2020, 5:01 AM GMT+1
South Korea said its fight against the virus is at a critical juncture as an infection flareup threatens to spread nationwide. A surge of cases in Japan may be peaking, a government adviser said.

In the U.S., the outbreak in southern states is slowing and deaths should start to fall next week, said the head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Pfizer Inc.’s vaccine is on track for a regulatory review as soon as October and 1.3 billion doses could be produced by the end of 2021.

Argentina reported record daily cases. Italy added its most since mid-May, and infections in England rose by more than a quarter in a week.

Key Developments:

  • Global Tracker: Cases exceed 22.5 million; deaths pass 790,000
  • Fight with outbreak church fuels rebound for Moon
  • Virtual classes can’t stop explosion of off-campus virus cases
  • Vaccine Tracker: Where we are in the race for protection
More
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-20/cdc-says-sun-belt-cases-ease-europe-fights-spike-virus-update?srnd=coronavirus

'Super-spreaders' caused up to 20% of all COVID-19 cases in Georgia, study finds

Aug. 20, 2020 / 5:13 PM
Aug. 20 (UPI) -- About 20% of all COVID-19 infections in Georgia during the early stages of the outbreak were directly linked with 2% of the cases, according to a study published Thursday by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The findings indicate that "super-spreading" of the virus was widespread in the state, particularly in rural areas, the researchers said.

"Super-spreading can contribute to explosions of transmission, even when we are seeing the numbers of new cases declining," study co-author Max Lau, an assistant professor of biostatics and bioinformatics at Emory University's Rollins School of Public Health, told UPI.

"Everyone should be mindful of maintaining social distancing so that super-spreading can be curtailed," he said.

Super-spreading is a phenomenon in which certain individuals disproportionately infect a large number of people. Several "super-spreader" events have been recorded across the country since the start of the pandemic, according to Lau and his colleagues.

For this study, the researchers from Emory University reviewed data on nearly 10,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the Georgia Department of Public Health between March 1 and May 3.

The cases were concentrated in five counties across the state, the researchers said. They were Cobb, DeKalb, Gwinnett and Fulton in the metro Atlanta area and Dougherty in the more rural southwest region.
More
https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020/08/20/Super-spreaders-caused-up-to-20-of-all-COVID-19-cases-in-Georgia-study-finds/5671597956167/

Millions likely infected by coronavirus in New Delhi, survey finds

August 20, 2020 / 5:12 AM
MUMBAI (Reuters) - Almost 30% of the population in India’s capital of New Delhi likely have been infected by the novel coronavirus, according to a serological survey of 15,000 people conducted by the local government, a figure that indicates infection numbers are much higher than those recorded.

The survey, which tested a sample of the population for the presence of antibodies, was done in the national capital territory in the first week of August, its health minister Satyendra Jain told a news conference on Thursday. 

“We found that 29.1% of the population of Delhi had antibodies, which means that they were infected and have been cured,” Jain said.

Delhi has a population of 20 million and has recorded a total of 140,767 cases of COVID-19, out of India’s total of 2.84 million.

The findings of the survey are in line with what other cities like Mumbai and Pune have discovered, that a significant number of their people have been infected.

India reported a record daily jump of 69,652 coronavirus infections on Thursday, data from the federal health ministry showed. Deaths rose by 977 to a total of 53,866.

India is the worst-hit country in Asia and globally third only behind the United States and Brazil in number of cases.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-india-cases/millions-likely-infected-by-coronavirus-in-new-delhi-survey-finds-idUKKCN25G0BX

France Reports Jump in New Coronavirus Cases Over Past 24 Hours

By Frank Connelly
France reported its biggest increase in new coronavirus cases since early May, before the country emerged from an almost two-month lockdown.

New infections totaled 3,776 over the past 24 hours, the government’s health office reported Wednesday, the largest daily jump since May 6. Deaths increased by 17 to 30,468.

France, along with neighbors including Spain, Germany and the Netherlands, has been grappling with a resurgence in cases over the past few weeks, even as the number of fatalities remains well below the levels seen during the peak of the pandemic in March and April.

Authorities in France have begun to tighten restrictions to curb the spread, including requiring masks in busy outdoor areas of cities like Paris and Marseilles. Local authorities in Toulouse will require mask-wearing throughout the city starting on Aug. 21, Agence France-Presse reported, the first large French city to go so far.
More

Spain’s Mounting Coronavirus Crisis Is Met by Government Silence

By Rodrigo Orihuela
August 19, 2020, 4:50 PM GMT+1 Updated on August 19, 2020, 7:31 PM GMT+1
Spain has re-emerged as the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic in Europe and its government appears largely in denial over it.

Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is on vacation with his family and hasn’t come out to address the public after Spain, over the course of this week, recorded the highest number of daily infections per million people in Europe. Each day brings more bad news.

The country on Wednesday recorded 3,715 new cases in the past 24 hours, the highest since April 23. The region around Madrid accounted for almost half the total.

With the tourism industry decimated and the economy on its knees, some voters are on edge and any perceived indifference by its ruling class could carry a political cost for a weak minority government that relies on separatists to stay in power.
More


Some useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

Rt Covid-19

Covid19info.live

Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.

A key to cheaper renewable fuels: keeping iron from rusting

Date: August 19, 2020

Source: Washington State University

Summary: Researchers have made a key first step in economically converting plant materials to fuels: keeping iron from rusting.

Washington State University researchers have made a key first step in economically converting plant materials to fuels: keeping iron from rusting.

The researchers have determined how to keep iron from rusting in important chemical reactions that are needed to convert plant materials to fuels, meaning that the cheap and readily available element could be used for cost-effective biofuels conversion.

Led by Yong Wang, Voiland Distinguished Professor in the Gene and Linda Voiland School of Chemical Engineering and Bioengineering, and Shuai Wang from the State Key Laboratory for Physical Chemistry of Solid Surfaces at Xiamen University, the researchers report on their work on the cover of the July issue of ACS Catalysis.

Researchers have been trying to find more efficient ways to create fuels and chemicals from renewable plant-based resources, such as from algae, crop waste, or forest residuals. But, these bio-based fuels tend to be more expensive with less energy density than fossil fuels.

One big hurdle in using plant-based feedstocks for fuel is that oxygen has to be removed from them before they can be used.

"You want to use the cheapest catalyst to remove the oxygen," said Jean-Sabin McEwen, a co-author on the paper and associate professor in the Gene and Linda Voiland School of Chemical Engineering and Bioengineering. "Iron is a good choice because it's super abundant."

Iron-based catalysts show great promise for being able to remove oxygen, but because the plant materials also contain oxygen, the iron oxidizes, or rusts, during the reaction, and then the reaction stops working. The trick is to get the iron to remove the oxygen from the plants without taking up so much oxygen that the reaction stops.

----In another recently published paper in Chemical Science led by Yong Wang and Junming Sun, a research assistant professor in the Gene and Linda Voiland School of Chemical Engineering and Bioengineering, the researchers discovered a durable iron-based catalyst with a thin carbon graphene layer around it. The graphene layer protected the iron while cesium ions allowed the researchers to tailor its electronic properties for the desired reaction.

"We dialed down the oxygen reaction," Sun said. "By protecting iron and tuning its properties, these works provide the scientific basis for using earth abundant and cost-effective iron as catalysts for biomass conversion."

The researchers are now working to better understand the chemistry of the reactions, so they can further increase the reactivity of the iron catalysts. They also will need to try their catalysts with real feedstocks instead of the model compounds used for the study. The feedstocks collected from farm fields will be more complicated in their compositions with a lot of impurities, and the researchers would also have to integrate their catalyst into a series of steps that are used in the conversion process.
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Another weekend and summers nearly over. With the elderly Democratic presidential challenger picked, alongside his oh so PC running mate, this is likely the last “quiet” summer political weekend, before the 2020  dirty tricks presidential political campaigns shift gears. Enjoy. Have a great weekend everyone, but keep watching those Atlantic storms.
“You are a slow learner, Reader."
"How can I help it? How can I help but see what is in front of my eyes? Two and two are four."
"Sometimes, Reader. Sometimes they are five. Sometimes they are three. Sometimes they are all of them at once. You must try harder.

Jerome Powell, with apologies to George Orwell 1984.

The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished July

DJIA: 26,428 -1 Up. NASDAQ: 10,745 +243 Up. SP500: 3,271 +89 Up.

The NASDAQ has remained up. The DJIA and SP500 have turned up. With stock mania running fueled by trillions of central bankster new fiat money programs, I would not rely on the indicators.

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