Baltic Dry Index. 1518 -50 Brent Crude 45.06
Spot Gold 1950
Coronavirus Cases 21/8/20 World 22,755,186
Deaths 801,120
“Power is not a means; it is an end. One
does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes
the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship. The object of
persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of
power is power”
George Orwell 1984.
Don’t look now but
global cases of Covid-19 are about to hit 23 million later today.
In slightly better
news, new deaths aren’t keeping up, possibly down to better medical responses as
we gain more knowledge of how Covid-19 develops, possibly down to Covid-19
having mostly already culled the weakest, possibly down to fraudulent
statistics.
In global economy
news, it’s spend, spend, spend, newly created fiat money out of thin air as
fast as possible, but stocks and gold aside, all the trillions of new fiat
money has accomplished is to keep the G-7 economies lingering on in the central
banksters ICU ward.
But all that is about
to blow up, unless governments come up with a relief program for defaulting
renters, mortgage holders, and badly affected landlords.
With eviction moratoriums
about to end, hundreds of thousands of defaulting renters are facing the start
of imminent eviction proceedings. Things
will turn ugly in a hurry after that.
Record-breaking stocks take a breather, data weighs on dollar
August 21, 2020
/ 1:01 AM
SINGAPORE/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Asia’s stock markets bounced on Friday
following Wall Street’s lead, but were set for their softest week in about a
month as investors grapple with tepid economic data and lofty valuations after
a huge rally that has wiped out coronavirus losses.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS rose 0.6% on Friday, though it is it poised to snap a four-week winning streak with a small weekly loss.
Japan's Nikkei .N225 edged up 0.3% but was headed for a 1.5% weekly drop, while a bond market selloff has also moderated in recent days as caution and summer-time lassitude weighs on the mood after the S&P 500 .SPX touched another record intraday peak.
Another surge in tech stocks took the Nasdaq .IXIC to a new all-time closing high.
“It’s always going to be a little harder, once that’s happened, to figure out where things are going,” said ING’s head of Asia research, Rob Carnell of the U.S. stock market.
In the absence of a disaster, he said, upward drift is probably the most likely direction, though perhaps with less conviction than the exuberance that has driven world stocks .MIWD00000PUS up 50% from March troughs.
---- Overnight, clouds returned to the U.S. labour market outlook, with weekly jobless claims back over a million to put the total number of Americans on unemployment benefits at 28 million.
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s business index also missed
expectations and together the weak readings pushed down nominal U.S. yields and
dragged on the dollar. Benchmark U.S. 10-year debt US10YT=RR yields were last
steady at 0.6558%.
Investors are looking ahead to purchasing managers’ index surveys across
Europe, Britain and the United States - where steady, slightly positive, readings
are expected - for the next broad gauge of the recovery’s progress.
Japan’s factory activity fell in August for a 16th month, a private
business survey showed, casting doubt over manufacturers’ hopes for a rapid
recovery.
More
Gold to Gain on Massive Currency Debasement, SkyBridge Says
By Ranjeetha Pakiam
Updated on August 20, 2020, 10:01 AM GMT+1
·
·
Prices may climb to $2,200 as central banks
fight the pandemic
Gold will extend its record-setting rally on “massive currency debasement” and expectations for further stimulus, according to SkyBridge Capital, which recently added exposure to the metal after exiting in 2011.
“When you think of currency debasement the question is, what is the
dollar going to weaken against, and when you look around the globe, it’s hard
to be excited about alternative currencies,” said Troy Gayeski, co-chief
investment officer and senior portfolio manager, listing the euro, yuan and
emerging-market monies. “So, gold is obviously a natural alternative currency.”
More
IRS predicts 37M fewer regular jobs than before pandemic
Aug. 20, 2020 /
4:08 PM
Aug.
20 (UPI) -- The Internal Revenue Service
predicted Thursday the United States would have about 229 million
employee-classified jobs in 2021 -- 37 million fewer than it estimated before COVID-19 pandemic
hit.The new IRS estimate of the number of jobs that will require W-2 filings in 2021 is lower than the 266 million jobs predicted before the pandemic.
It also predicted the lower estimates of jobs would continue through 2027, with about 16 million fewer W-2 forms filed that year than estimated before COVID-19 hit.
Meanwhile, the IRS estimated 1.6 million more gig jobs that require 1099-MISC tax forms in 2021 than it it did before the pandemic.
The gig work increase "likely reflects assumptions with the shift to 'work from home,' which may be gig workers, or may just be that businesses are more willing to outsource work -- or have the status of their workers be independent contractors -- now that they work from home," Action Economics Chief Economist Mike Englund said.
The IRS job predictions for next year come amid new unemployment claims climbing to 1.1 million, an increase of 135,000 from the previous week, the Labor Department said in its weekly report Thursday.
The report listed the unemployment rate at 10.2%.
Next, as goes New York City real
estate, so goes London, Paris, Hong Kong, and China? Is China’s great property
bubble about to burst?
With looting, boarded up stores,
an extreme far left Mayor not supporting law and order, and neo-communist
Democrat Socialists proposing “wealth taxes,” aka theft, why would most
billionaires want to remain in the NYC version of Caracas?
Covid-19 Pounds New York Real Estate Worse Than 9/11, Financial Crash
The city’s high-end market was dealt an unprecedented blow by the coronavirus lockdown. Can it ever fully recover?
Aug. 20, 2020 12:00 pm ET
The Covid-19 crisis has delivered a stunning gut-punch to the New York
City luxury real-estate market, applying downward pressure at a rate that
surpasses both the 2008 financial crisis and the period immediately following
the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
In the West Chelsea district, a recently built ultra high-end boutique
condominium known as the Getty slashed prices for its remaining units by as
much as 46%. One full-floor, four-bedroom apartment at the Peter
Marino-designed building was lowered to $10.475 million from $19.5 million.
“Truth be told, you need to do something drastic and dramatic to attract
attention,” said Ran Korolik, a partner at Victor Group, a developer of the
project. “I didn’t want to reduce prices by 15% or 20% and then have someone
come along and try to negotiate another 15% or 20%.”
The crisis comes at a time when sales and prices in the luxury market
were already under pressure. “It’s not like New York City is all of a sudden on
sale. New York has been on sale for the past 24 months,” said Tal Alexander, a
luxury agent with Douglas Elliman. “Sellers who are motivated and want to do
deals need to add on another layer of discount.”
The numbers are unprecedented. Between March 23 and August 16, sales of Manhattan homes were off 56% year-over-year, according to UrbanDigs, a real-estate data site. For properties priced at $4 million or above, sales were down about 67%.
New listings were down by 21%, while new listings priced at $4 million and above were down by almost 35%. For luxury homes sold in the second quarter, prices were also down by about 11%, according to a report by Douglas Elliman.
That slowdown was driven in large part by New York’s strict lockdown during the worst of the city’s crisis. Prohibited from showing properties in person, agents had to rely entirely on virtual tours, which most said were of limited value. The subsequent protests and riots following the killing of George Floyd also rocked the city, and resulted in the boarding up of stores, museums and restaurants that had already been closed because of the virus.
Adding to the storm: Real-estate agents said Manhattan sales inevitably slow in a presidential election year, perhaps because buyers waver amid uncertainty. And some agents believe wealthy home buyers have been discouraged by recently enacted taxes on high-end home purchases. Calls by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and other Democrats to address the pandemic-fueled economic crisis by further taxing billionaires who live in New York state have only fueled those concerns.
Many of those wealthy New Yorkers have decamped to the Hamptons or to Palm Beach, Fla., amid the pandemic and haven’t returned, a point bemoaned by New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who jokingly offered to buy drinks for high-net worth New Yorkers who would return to shore up the city’s tax base. He has opposed placing a further tax on billionaires, who make up much of that tax base, for fear of driving them permanently out of the city.
More
Finally, more on that
over active Atlantic hurricane season. Do fleeing NYC billionaires really want
to relocate to Palm Beach, Boca Raton, or Fisher Island?
Tropical Depressions Thirteen and Fourteen: Track the Storms
2 hours ago weather.com
For the first time since the Great Depression, it's possible that two tropical systems could make landfall in the mainland United States at virtually the same time. There will be a lot to keep track of, so bookmark this landing page as your go-to for important information and maps on both tropical systems.Tropical Depression Thirteen
Tropical Depression Thirteen will affect the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands as a tropical storm with rain and gusty winds by this weekend. This system may then head toward Florida and the Gulf of Mexico early next week, possibly as a hurricane. However, its forecast intensity and track at that time are highly uncertain.For the full forecast, click here.
Tropical Depression Fourteen
Tropical Depression Fourteen has formed in the Caribbean Sea and is expected to first impact parts of Central America and Mexico as a tropical storm or hurricane before emerging into the western Gulf of Mexico. This system faces an uncertain future in the western Gulf of Mexico, but it could affect parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast next week as a hurricane.For the full forecast, click here.
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-08-20-tropical-depression-thirteen-fourteen-laura-marco-tracker
Covid-19 Corner
South Korea on Brink; Pfizer Vaccine Progresses: Virus Update
Bloomberg News
Updated on August 21, 2020, 5:01 AM GMT+1
South Korea said its fight against the virus is at a
critical juncture as an infection flareup threatens to spread nationwide. A
surge of cases in Japan may be peaking, a government adviser said.In the U.S., the outbreak in southern states is slowing and deaths should start to fall next week, said the head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Pfizer Inc.’s vaccine is on track for a regulatory review as soon as October and 1.3 billion doses could be produced by the end of 2021.
Argentina reported record daily cases. Italy added its most since mid-May, and infections in England rose by more than a quarter in a week.
Key Developments:
- Global Tracker: Cases exceed 22.5 million; deaths pass 790,000
- Fight with outbreak church fuels rebound for Moon
- Virtual classes can’t stop explosion of off-campus virus cases
- Vaccine Tracker: Where we are in the race for protection
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-20/cdc-says-sun-belt-cases-ease-europe-fights-spike-virus-update?srnd=coronavirus
'Super-spreaders' caused up to 20% of all COVID-19 cases in Georgia, study finds
Aug. 20, 2020 /
5:13 PM
Aug.
20 (UPI) -- About 20% of all COVID-19
infections in Georgia during the early stages of the outbreak were directly
linked with 2% of the cases, according to a study published Thursday by the Proceedings
of the National Academy of Sciences.The findings indicate that "super-spreading" of the virus was widespread in the state, particularly in rural areas, the researchers said.
"Super-spreading can contribute to explosions of transmission, even
when we are seeing the numbers of new cases declining," study co-author
Max Lau, an assistant professor of biostatics and bioinformatics at Emory
University's Rollins School of Public Health, told UPI.
"Everyone should be mindful of maintaining social distancing so
that super-spreading can be curtailed," he said.
Super-spreading is a phenomenon in which certain individuals
disproportionately infect a large number of people. Several
"super-spreader" events have been recorded across the country since
the start of the pandemic, according to Lau and his colleagues.
For this study, the researchers from Emory University reviewed data on
nearly 10,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the Georgia Department of
Public Health between March 1 and May 3.
The cases were concentrated in five counties across the state, the
researchers said. They were Cobb, DeKalb, Gwinnett and Fulton in the metro
Atlanta area and Dougherty in the more rural southwest region.
Morehttps://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020/08/20/Super-spreaders-caused-up-to-20-of-all-COVID-19-cases-in-Georgia-study-finds/5671597956167/
Millions likely infected by coronavirus in New Delhi, survey finds
August 20, 2020
/ 5:12 AM
MUMBAI (Reuters) - Almost 30% of the population in India’s capital of
New Delhi likely have been infected by the novel coronavirus, according to a
serological survey of 15,000 people conducted by the local government, a figure
that indicates infection numbers are much higher than those recorded.
The survey, which tested a sample of the population for the presence of
antibodies, was done in the national capital territory in the first week of
August, its health minister Satyendra Jain told a news conference on Thursday.
“We found that 29.1% of the population of Delhi had antibodies, which
means that they were infected and have been cured,” Jain said.
Delhi has a population of 20 million and has recorded a total of 140,767
cases of COVID-19, out of India’s total of 2.84 million.
The findings of the survey are in line with what other cities like
Mumbai and Pune have discovered, that a significant number of their people have
been infected.
India reported a record daily jump of 69,652 coronavirus infections on
Thursday, data from the federal health ministry showed. Deaths rose by 977 to a
total of 53,866.
India is the worst-hit country in Asia and globally third only behind
the United States and Brazil in number of cases.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-india-cases/millions-likely-infected-by-coronavirus-in-new-delhi-survey-finds-idUKKCN25G0BXFrance Reports Jump in New Coronavirus Cases Over Past 24 Hours
By Frank Connelly
France reported its biggest increase in new coronavirus cases since
early May, before the country emerged from an almost two-month lockdown.
New infections totaled 3,776 over the past 24 hours, the government’s
health office reported Wednesday, the largest daily jump since May 6. Deaths
increased by 17 to 30,468.
France, along with neighbors including Spain, Germany and the
Netherlands, has been grappling with a resurgence in cases over the past few
weeks, even as the number of fatalities remains well below the levels seen
during the peak of the pandemic in March and April.
Authorities in France have begun to tighten restrictions to curb the
spread, including requiring masks in busy outdoor areas of cities like Paris
and Marseilles. Local authorities in Toulouse will require mask-wearing
throughout the city starting on Aug. 21, Agence France-Presse reported, the
first large French city to go so far.
More
Spain’s Mounting Coronavirus Crisis Is Met by Government Silence
By Rodrigo Orihuela
August 19, 2020, 4:50 PM GMT+1 Updated on August 19, 2020,
7:31 PM GMT+1
Spain has re-emerged as the epicenter of
the coronavirus pandemic in Europe and its government appears largely in denial
over it.
Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is on vacation with his family and hasn’t
come out to address the public after Spain, over the course of this week,
recorded the highest number of daily infections per million people in Europe.
Each day brings more bad news.
The country on Wednesday recorded 3,715 new cases in the past 24 hours,
the highest since April 23. The region around Madrid accounted for almost half
the total.
With the tourism industry decimated and the economy on its knees, some
voters are on edge and any perceived indifference by its ruling class could
carry a political cost for a weak minority government that relies on
separatists to stay in power.
More
Some useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
Rt Covid-19
Covid19info.live
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.
A key to cheaper renewable fuels: keeping iron from rusting
Date:
August 19, 2020
Source:
Washington State University
Summary:
Researchers have made a key first step in economically converting plant
materials to fuels: keeping iron from rusting.
Washington State University researchers have made a key first step in
economically converting plant materials to fuels: keeping iron from rusting.
The researchers have determined how to keep iron from rusting in
important chemical reactions that are needed to convert plant materials to
fuels, meaning that the cheap and readily available element could be used for
cost-effective biofuels conversion.
Led by Yong Wang, Voiland Distinguished Professor in the Gene and Linda
Voiland School of Chemical Engineering and Bioengineering, and Shuai Wang from
the State Key Laboratory for Physical Chemistry of Solid Surfaces at Xiamen
University, the researchers report on their work on the cover of the July issue
of ACS Catalysis.
Researchers have been trying to find more efficient ways to create fuels
and chemicals from renewable plant-based resources, such as from algae, crop
waste, or forest residuals. But, these bio-based fuels tend to be more
expensive with less energy density than fossil fuels.
One big hurdle in using plant-based feedstocks for fuel is that oxygen
has to be removed from them before they can be used.
"You want to use the cheapest catalyst to remove the oxygen,"
said Jean-Sabin McEwen, a co-author on the paper and associate professor in the
Gene and Linda Voiland School of Chemical Engineering and Bioengineering.
"Iron is a good choice because it's super abundant."
Iron-based catalysts show great promise for being able to remove oxygen,
but because the plant materials also contain oxygen, the iron oxidizes, or
rusts, during the reaction, and then the reaction stops working. The trick is
to get the iron to remove the oxygen from the plants without taking up so much
oxygen that the reaction stops.
----In another recently published paper in Chemical Science led by Yong Wang and Junming Sun, a research assistant professor in the Gene and Linda Voiland School of Chemical Engineering and Bioengineering, the researchers discovered a durable iron-based catalyst with a thin carbon graphene layer around it. The graphene layer protected the iron while cesium ions allowed the researchers to tailor its electronic properties for the desired reaction.
"We dialed down the oxygen reaction," Sun said. "By
protecting iron and tuning its properties, these works provide the scientific
basis for using earth abundant and cost-effective iron as catalysts for biomass
conversion."
The researchers are now working to better understand the chemistry of
the reactions, so they can further increase the reactivity of the iron
catalysts. They also will need to try their catalysts with real feedstocks
instead of the model compounds used for the study. The feedstocks collected
from farm fields will be more complicated in their compositions with a lot of
impurities, and the researchers would also have to integrate their catalyst
into a series of steps that are used in the conversion process.
More
Another weekend and
summers nearly over. With the elderly Democratic presidential challenger
picked, alongside his oh so PC running mate, this is likely the last “quiet”
summer political weekend, before the 2020 dirty tricks presidential political campaigns
shift gears. Enjoy. Have a great weekend everyone, but keep watching those
Atlantic storms.
“You are a slow learner, Reader."
"How can I help it? How can I help but see what is in front of my eyes? Two and two are four."
"Sometimes, Reader. Sometimes they are five. Sometimes they are three. Sometimes they are all of them at once. You must try harder.
"How can I help it? How can I help but see what is in front of my eyes? Two and two are four."
"Sometimes, Reader. Sometimes they are five. Sometimes they are three. Sometimes they are all of them at once. You must try harder.
Jerome Powell, with apologies to George
Orwell 1984.
The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished July
DJIA: 26,428 -1 Up. NASDAQ: 10,745 +243 Up. SP500:
3,271 +89 Up.
The NASDAQ
has remained up. The DJIA and SP500 have turned up. With stock mania running
fueled by trillions of central bankster new fiat money programs, I would not
rely on the indicators.
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