Baltic Dry Index. 617 -08 Brent Crude 28.12 Spot Gold 1572
Covid-19 Pandemic finally
underway, according to the WHO, at long last!
Coronavirus Cases 24/3/20
World 396,077 Deaths 17,271 (Maybe.)
"If
you aren't willing to own a stock for ten years, don't even think about owning
it for ten minutes."
Warren
Buffett.
In what is
probably a mistake and a final exit opportunity, Asian stock markets are
rallying in expectation that later today America’s politicians will be forced
to drop the party politics of the November elections, and reach a rescue package
for the US economy.
I think, even if
they do, it’s too late to save the global economy from the first global depression
hitting since the 1930s.
Of course, fiscal rescue
packages and central banks flooding the planet with fiat money will help short
term, but there is no free lunch on planet earth, and none of the above actions
will persuade truckers to drive into Italy to pick up foodstuffs and goods.
None of it will
get passengers back on grounded planes to shutdown destinations. None of it
will get elderly wealthy retirees back on prison cruise ships. None of it will
get flush advertisers to advertise on cancelled sporting events. None of it
will get shut-in consumers partying like its still 2018-2019.
For now that the
boom is over, comes many troubling days of reckoning. The bill for the central
banksters decades of free lunch has only just started to come in.
“Bubbles”
Greenspan’s frauds are all now in collapse. We haven’t seen anything yet.
Asia stocks rebound, Fed pits endless QE against economic reality
March 24, 2020 /
12:07 AM
SYDNEY (Reuters) -
Asian stocks rebounded sharply on Tuesday as the U.S. Federal Reserve’s promise
of bottomless dollar funding eased painful strains in financial markets, even
if it could not soften the immediate economic hit of the coronavirus.
While Wall Street seemed unimpressed, investors in Asia were encouraged
enough to lift E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 by 3% and Japan’s Nikkei
6.2%. If sustained it would be the biggest daily rise for the Nikkei since late
2016. [.T]
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan jumped 4.2%,
to more than halve Monday’s drop. Shanghai blue chips gained 2.7%.
Europe also looked a shade brighter as EUROSTOXXX 50 futures climbed
3.3% and FTSE futures 3.1%.
In its latest drastic step, the Fed offered to buy unlimited amounts of
assets to steady markets and expanded its mandate to corporate and muni bonds.
The numbers were certainly large, with analysts estimating the package
could make $4 trillion or more in loans to non-financial firms.
“This open-ended and massively stepped-up program of QE is a very clear
signal that the Fed will do all that is needed to maintain the integrity and
liquidity of the Treasury market, key asset-backed markets and other core
markets,” said David de Garis, a director of economics at NAB.
The Fed’s package helped calm nerves in bond markets where yields on
two-year Treasuries hit their lowest since 2013, while 10-year yields dropped
back to 0.79%.
Analysts cautioned it would do little to offset the near-term economic
damage done by mass lockdowns and layoffs.
Speculation is mounting data due on Thursday will show U.S. jobless
claims rose an eye-watering 1 million last week, with forecasts ranging as high
as 4 million.
Goldman Sachs warned the U.S. economy growth could contract by 24% in
the second quarter, two-and-a-half times the pace of the previous postwar
record.
More
Surveys show coronavirus pandemic savaging global economy
March 24, 2020 /
4:56 AM
HONG KONG
(Reuters) - Evidence of the devastation wreaked on the global economy by the
coronavirus pandemic mounted on Tuesday as activity surveys for March from
Australia and Japan showed record falls, with surveys in Europe and the United
States expected to be just as dire.
After an initial outbreak in China brought the world’s second largest
economy to a virtual halt last month, an ever growing number of countries and
territories have reported a spike in infections and deaths in March.
Entire regions have been placed on lockdown and in some places soldiers
are patrolling the streets to keep consumers and workers indoors, halting
services and production and breaking down global supply chains.
Mirroring the emptying of supermarket shelves around the world, indebted
corporates have rushed into money markets to hoard dollars, with a global
shortage of greenback funding threatening to cripple firms from airlines to
retailers.
“The coronavirus outbreak represents a major external shock to the macro
outlook, akin to a large-scale natural disaster,” analysts at BlackRock
Investment Institute said in a note.
Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys from Japan showed the services
sector shrinking at its fastest pace on record this month and factory activity
contracting at its quickest in a decade.
Services PMI slumped to a seasonally adjusted 32.7 from February’s 46.8 and manufacturing PMI fell to 44.8 from a final 47.8 last month. The 50 mark separates growth from contraction.
The survey results were consistent with a 4% contraction in the economy in 2020, Capital Economics senior economist Marcel Theliant said. The likely postponement of the Tokyo Olympics is expected to deal a heavy blow to the world’s third largest economy.
In Australia, the CBA Services PMI fell to a record low of 39.8 as restaurants, cafes and tourism were hit hard by travel bans and cancellations of events and concerts.
A separate analysis of card spending data by Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA.AX) showed shopping outside of grocery, alcohol and healthcare was bleak. A weekly consumer confidence gauge by ANZ-Roy Morgan plunged to 30-year lows at 72.2 points.
Later on Tuesday, the euro zone composite PMI is expected to come in at 38.8, the lowest since early 2009. U.S. manufacturing and services PMIs are also expected at multi-year lows of 42.8 and 42.0, respectively.
More
Western supply chains buckle as coronavirus lockdowns spread
March 23, 2020 /
3:59 PM
LONDON/MADRID/LOS
ANGELES (Reuters) - Freight carriers are struggling to deliver goods by land,
sea or air as the coronavirus pandemic forces Western governments to impose
lockdowns, threatening supplies of vital products including medicines into the
most affected areas, such as Italy.
While China’s draconian steps to stop the spread of the virus are now
allowing its economy slowly to come back online, supply chains are backing up
in other parts of the world.
Problems ranging from finding enough truck drivers to restrictions on
seafarers and a lack of air freight are hitting the smooth flow of goods, freight
logistics operators say.
Stockpiling and panic buying by consumers are also adding to strains.
“Supply chain disruption has moved rapidly from east to west,” said
Mohammed Esa, chief commercial officer, Europe, with global logistics group
Agility.
Companies involved in the transport of goods say the impact is being
felt hardest in air freight as more airlines shut down services, adding to
difficulties with the transport of key goods such as medicines and perishable
foods.
---- One European supplier of active pharmaceutical ingredients used by the industry, who declined to be named, said the business was struggling to get supplies transported by plane.
The U.S. decision to ban foreign visitors has also cut an estimated 85%
of U.S. air freight capacity, as vast amounts of goods were transported in the
bellies of passenger planes that are now grounded.
That has pushing freight
costs up five-fold as space for remaining cargo runs is limited, companies
directly involved in the trade say.
More
Column: Global economy hit by severest shock since 1930s
March 23, 2020 /
10:18 AM
LONDON (Reuters) -
Recessions often start with a small drop in activity which then progressively
deepens over subsequent months as the second and higher-round effects on the
economy start to occur.
But the current business cycle downturn looks very different. In terms
of its scale and sudden onset, there is no parallel since the end of the Second
World War.
The initial shock from the coronavirus outbreak and the shutdown of much
of the transportation and business system is both large and sudden.
There are no government statistics yet on the scale of the current
downturn, but taking the oil industry as a proxy for economic demand,
consumption appears to have fallen by around 10 million barrels per day, or
10%, within the space of a single month.
The first-round shock to the system is enormous even before any second
and third-round impact on business and consumer spending.
In 1945, demobilisation and the conversion from wartime to peacetime
production caused industrial output to drop by 30-35% progressively over 12
months.
In the 1974/75 recession, U.S. industrial output fell by around 15% over
roughly 20 months, according to data from the Federal Reserve.
In 2008/09, U.S. industrial output declined by almost 20% from its
pre-recession peak, but the decline was stretched over a period of roughly 18
months.
All these magnitudes and durations are approximate because peaks and
troughs in industrial production do not correspond precisely with the official
business cycle dates, which take into account other factors as well.
But the current downturn could easily prove the steepest since 1945. In
scale and sudden onset, it looks more like the dynamics of the 1930s Depression
or the violent business busts of the late 19th and early 20th centuries.
---- And in most cases, it is the second and third-round effects of a business downturn on wages, investment, confidence and lending that are the most important in determining the length and depth of the slump.
The more tightly coupled the system is, the more leverage is applied,
and the smaller the shock absorbers, the more severely an initial disturbance
is likely to cascade across the network.
More
Singapore Airlines grounds most of its fleet as coronavirus poses 'greatest challenge'
March 23, 2020 /
1:03 AM
SINGAPORE
(Reuters) - Singapore Airlines (SIAL.SI) will cut
capacity by 96%, ground almost all of its fleet and look to raise funds, the
carrier said on Monday, in response to coronavirus travel restrictions it
called the “greatest challenge” it had ever faced.
The move comes as global travel hub Singapore closed borders to travelers and transiting passengers in a bid to stem spread of the virus.
Shares of the airline, majority owned by Singapore state investor Temasek, were down more than 9% by 0350 GMT, outstripping losses in the broader market .STI that was down 7% and on track for its biggest daily drop since October 2008.
The airline industry worldwide is seeking state bail-outs to absorb the shock from the pandemic, as widespread travel curbs have forced many to ground fleets and order thousands of workers on unpaid leave to keep afloat.
“This will result in the grounding of around 138 SIA and SilkAir aircraft, out of a total fleet of 147, amid the greatest challenge the SIA Group has faced,” Singapore Airlines said.
The company has drawn on its credit lines in the last few days to meet immediate cash flow requirements and is in talks with financial institutions over future funding needs, it added.
“It’s important to have access to liquidity, to pay leases, to pay
employees and to be able to continue to function. This is a positive, but the
cost of funding remains uncertain,” said K. Ajith, an analyst at UOB Kay Hian.
In a report issued on Monday before the announcement, UOB Kay Hian had
said the carrier needed “backstop liquidity” of at least S$5 billion ($3.43
billion) by June.
It faces S$2.5 billion of marked-to-market losses by the end of March
from having taken out fuel hedges at high prices, the broker said.
Low-cost carrier Scoot will also suspend most of its network, leading to
the grounding of 47 of its fleet of 49 aircraft, Singapore Airlines said.
More
British broadcaster ITV says all TV advertising impacted by coronavirus
March 23, 2020 /
7:34 AM
LONDON (Reuters) - ITV (ITV.L), Britain’s biggest
commercial free-to-air broadcaster, said advertisers across all categories were
deferring campaigns, and the rapidly changing situation meant it could not
guide to ad sales or forecast its outcome for the year. It said on Monday the coronavirus outbreak had caused it to suspend production on many programmes, and it had implemented contingency plans to enable it to continue to produce news and live output. It also pulled its dividend.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-itv-outlook-coronavirus/british-broadcaster-itv-says-all-tv-advertising-impacted-by-coronavirus-idUKKBN21A0RB?il=0
Congo imposes 48-hour lockdown on mining province over coronavirus
March 23, 2020 /
10:48 AM
KINSHASA (Reuters) - Congo has imposed a two-day lockdown in
Haut-Katanga, an area rich in copper and cobalt, after two people tested
positive for the coronavirus, provincial governor Jacques Kyabula Katwe said.
He said late on Sunday the boundaries of the southeastern province,
whose capital is the mining hub of Lubumbashi, would also be closed. Ivanhoe,
MMG Ltd, and Chemaf are among the mining companies with concessions there.
From Monday, only the military, police, medical staff and authorised
civil servants will be allowed to travel round the province, he said.
Otherwise, transport from trucks to bicycles and barges has been halted.
The state is seeking to locate 75 people who took a plane from the
national capital Kinshasa to Lubumbashi on Sunday, from which two other
passengers subsequently tested positive for the virus. Those cases took the
number of confirmed coronavirus cases to 30 in Democratic Republic of Congo,
and two deaths.
The governor said in a video posted on Twitter.We ask them to stay at
home and contact the medical services, the governor said in a video posted on
Twitter.
“No activity will be tolerated in Haut-Katanga during this 48-hour
period,” he said.
Democratic Republic of Congo produces about 60% of the world’s cobalt, a
component in electric car batteries.
Morehttps://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-congo/congo-imposes-48-hour-lockdown-on-mining-province-over-coronavirus-idUKKBN21A1JM?il=0
PM Johnson orders Britons: you must stay at home
March 23, 2020 /
10:02 AM
LONDON (Reuters) - Prime Minister Boris Johnson ordered
Britons on Monday to stay at home to halt the spread of coronavirus, imposing
curbs on everyday life without precedent in peacetime.
All but essential shops must close immediately and people should no
longer meet family or friends or risk being fined, Johnson said in a televised
address to the nation.
Johnson had resisted pressure to impose a full lockdown even as other
European countries had done so, but was forced to change tack as projections
showed the health system could become overwhelmed.
Deaths from the virus in Britain jumped 54 to 335 on Monday as the
government said the military would help ship millions of items of personal
protective equipment (PPE) including masks to healthcare workers who have
complained of shortages.
“From this evening I must give the British people a very simple
instruction - you must stay at home,” Johnson said in a televised address,
replacing his daily news conference.
They would only be allowed to leave their homes to shop for basic
necessities, exercise, for a medical need, to provide care or travelling to and
from work where absolutely necessary.
“That’s all - these are the only
reasons you should leave your home,” he said, adding that people should not
meet friends or family members who do not live in their home.
Morehttps://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain/pm-johnson-orders-britons-you-must-stay-at-home-idUKKBN21A1CN
Europe Gets Serious About Lockdowns as Italy Slows Deaths
By Sonia Sirletti, Patrick Donahue, and Kitty Donaldson
·
Hope
emerges in worst-hit country and U.K. finally shuts down
·
Euro officials to talk rescue plans to counter
economic pain
March 24, 2020, 12:07 AM GMT Updated on March 24, 2020, 12:47
AM GMT
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-24/europe-gets-serious-about-lockdowns-as-italy-slows-deaths?srnd=premium-europeCoronavirus: South Africa imposes 3-week lockdown ‘to prevent human catastrophe’
·
Country of 56 million people told to ‘stay at
home’ from midnight on Thursday, but essential services workers will be exempt
·
President Cyril Ramaphosa calls it ‘a decisive
measure to save the lives of hundreds of thousands of people’ after jump in new
infections
Published: 2:19pm, 24 Mar, 2020
South Africa will impose a nationwide lockdown for three weeks as it
tries to contain a surge in coronavirus
cases , which on Monday jumped from
274 to 402 in a day.
President Cyril Ramaphosa said it was “a decisive measure to save
millions of South Africans from infection and save the lives of hundreds of
thousands of people”.
The country’s 56 million people have been told to “stay at home” from
midnight on Thursday until midnight on April 16 “to prevent a human catastrophe
of enormous proportions in our country”.
But the order will not apply to those providing essential services,
including health care workers, police, and people involved in the supply of
goods, including food.
Morehttps://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3076677/coronavirus-south-africa-imposes-3-week-lockdown-prevent-human
"I never attempt to make money on the stock market. I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years."
Warren Buffett.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, Australia. Even there, nowhere to hide from CoViD-19.
Australia central bank pumps in liquidity, buys bonds as deep recession looms
March 24, 2020 /
2:02 AM
SYDNEY
(Reuters) - Australia’s central bank injected A$6.9 billion (3.51 billion
pounds) into the financial system on Tuesday and bought A$4 billion in bonds as
economists predicted a spike in unemployment and the worst recession in the
country’s history due to the coronavirus.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has flooded the system with nearly
A$65 billion cash since March 12 when a liquidity crunch sent global markets
into a tailspin. It has also purchased A$13 billion in government bonds since
launching its “unlimited” quantitative easing programme on March 20.
The RBA has so far been successful in flattening the yield curve as it
aims to keep short-term yields around the cash rate of 0.25%.
A recession - the country’s first in nearly three decades - is still
inevitable.
Westpac economist Bill Evans expects the unemployment rate to surge to
11.1% in the June quarter, up from his last week’s estimate of 7% and
February’s official reading of 5.1%. He sees an economic contraction of 3.5% in
that period.
Citibank economist Josh Williamson predicted the A$2 trillion economy
would shrink 1.2% in the current quarter and 5.7% next quarter, which would be
the largest on record.
More
Australian coronavirus cases spike, cruise with sick passengers denied entry
March 23, 2020 /
12:53 AM / Updated 2 hours ago
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Australians began living under strict new lockdown
rules on Monday as coronavirus cases topped 1,600 and authorities denied entry
to a cruise ship carrying hundreds on board complaining of respiratory
illnesses.
As new restrictions closing non-essential services came into effect,
there were clear signs of economic and social stress with long queues forming
outside offices of the main welfare agency across the country.
After reporting only a gradual spread in January, the number of COVID-19
cases in Australia now appears to be tracking much sharper increases seen
elsewhere, with the most populous states of New South Wales and Victoria
recording the fastest rises.
Most states have now closed their borders to travellers from other parts
of the country and effected their own lockdown laws, in addition to the
national curbs announced on Sunday.
Western Australia on Monday banned passengers on board the Swiss-owned
MSC Magnifica cruise ship from disembarking.
Of 1,700 passengers on board the ship, more than 250 have complained of
respiratory illnesses. It was due to dock at Fremantle port as early as Monday
evening.
That decision comes days after 2,700 passengers disembarked from the
Ruby Princess cruise ship in Sydney harbour, with 48 on board subsequently
testing positive for the virus.
“I will not allow what happened in Sydney to happen here,” West
Australian Premier Mark McGowan said. “We will not allow passengers or crew to
wander the streets.”
A spokesman for MSC Cruises did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
‘TOUGHEST YEAR OF OUR LIVES’
New measures designed to minimise the spread of the virus mean many non-essential services, including pubs, clubs, cinemas, gyms and houses of worship, were closed on Monday.“There will be no more going to the pub after work, no more going to the gym in the morning, and no more sitting down for brunch at a cafe,” Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison told parliament on Monday.
Morrison said the immense health and economic challenges of the global pandemic would be the “toughest year of our lives” and warned Australians to prepare for shutdowns that could last six months.
Despite warnings to practice social distancing, thousands flocked to Sydney’s Bondi Beach and frequented bars and restaurants over the weekend.
More
Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance
What the Next 18 Months Can Look Like, if Leaders Buy Us Time
Tomas
Pueyo Mar
19 · 29 min read
Summary of the article: Strong coronavirus measures today
should only last a few weeks, there shouldn’t be a big peak of infections
afterwards, and it can all be done for a reasonable cost to society, saving
millions of lives along the way. If we don’t take these measures, tens of
millions will be infected, many will die, along with anybody else that requires
intensive care, because the healthcare system will have collapsed.
Within a week, countries around the world have gone from: “This
coronavirus thing is not a big deal” to declaring the state of emergency.
Yet many countries are still not doing much. Why?
Every country is asking the same question: How should we respond?
The answer is not obvious to them.
Some countries, like France, Spain or Philippines, have since
ordered heavy lockdowns. Others, like the US, UK, or Switzerland, have dragged
their feet, hesitantly venturing into social distancing measures.
Here’s what we’re going to cover today, again with lots of charts,
data and models with plenty of sources:
1. What’s
the current situation?
2. What
options do we have?
3. What’s
the one thing that matters now: Time
4. What
does a good coronavirus strategy look like?
5. How
should we think about the economic and social impacts?
When you’re done reading the article, this is what you’ll take
away:
Our healthcare system is already collapsing.
Countries have two options: either they fight it hard now, or they will suffer a massive epidemic.
If they choose the epidemic, hundreds of thousands will die. In some countries, millions.
And that might not even eliminate further waves of infections.
If we fight hard now, we will curb the deaths.
We will relieve our healthcare system.
We will prepare better.
We will learn.
Countries have two options: either they fight it hard now, or they will suffer a massive epidemic.
If they choose the epidemic, hundreds of thousands will die. In some countries, millions.
And that might not even eliminate further waves of infections.
If we fight hard now, we will curb the deaths.
We will relieve our healthcare system.
We will prepare better.
We will learn.
The world has never learned as fast about anything, ever.
And we need it, because we know so little about this virus.
All of this will achieve something critical: Buy Us Time.
And we need it, because we know so little about this virus.
All of this will achieve something critical: Buy Us Time.
If we choose to fight hard, the fight will be sudden, then gradual.
We will be locked in for weeks, not months.
Then, we will get more and more freedoms back.
It might not be back to normal immediately.
But it will be close, and eventually back to normal.
We will be locked in for weeks, not months.
Then, we will get more and more freedoms back.
It might not be back to normal immediately.
But it will be close, and eventually back to normal.
And we can do all that while considering the rest of the economy too.
More, much, much, more.
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.
Due to today’s
length, no update today. Normal service resumes tomorrow.
When
the market goes up and up, everyone looks like an investing genius. It's only
when things go sour that you see who actually has a good long-term strategy.
Warren
Buffett.
The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished February
DJIA: 25,409 +75 Down. NASDAQ: 8,567 +171 Up.
SP500: 2,954 +133 Up.
In current circumstances,
this is no time to be blindly following technical signals. Given the
severity of the still growing coronavirus crisis, I wouldn’t follow technical
signals in what I think will turn into the first depression since the 1930s.
Barring a miracle recovery in all three markets, the monthly Coppock indicators
are heading for a reversal at the month-end.
No comments:
Post a Comment