Baltic Dry Index. 625 -05 Brent Crude 26.98 Spot
Gold 1499
Covid-19 Cases 07/3/20 World 102,350 Deaths 3,497 (Maybe.)
Covid-19 cases 14/3/20 World 146,627 Deaths 5,461 (Maybe.)
Covid-19 cases 21/3/20 World 286,402 Deaths 11,885 (Maybe.)
As we learned after President Herbert Hoover signed the
Smoot-Hawley tariff at the outset of the Great Depression, vibrant
international trade is a key component to economic recovery; hindering trade is
a recipe for disaster.
Asa Hutchinson
As America, GB, and much of Europe, goes
into lockdown, there was some better news Friday on the coronavirus front.
Still it will come too late to avert the rising global lockdown. For more on that scroll down to the final
section.
But first the bad news on the G-7s
economy going into lockdown. For a very large part of the affluent west’s
economy, life will become more like the wartime 1940s.
Will it all end in some form rationing
supply chain, if a long lockdown adds to turmoil in supply chains, especially in
the foodstuffs distribution?
If the lockdown becomes prolonged, will
the stock and commodity markets get “temporary” closures?
Breaking: Trump eyes two-week quarantine, only drug and grocery stores open
by Paul Bedard
March 20, 2020 07:31 PM
President
Trump, moving with haste to slow the spread of the coronavirus, is preparing a
plan to mobilize the National Guard to help enforce a two-week quarantine of
the public if his tough-love efforts so far fail.
The
unprecedented action would require everyone to “stay at home,” according to a
source knowledgeable of the evolving plan.
The effort,
which is still being mulled and wouldn’t be announced until early next week if
needed, would urge that all businesses, except grocery stores and pharmacies,
be closed.
It comes on
the heels of other insider reports that the president is considering grounding
all U.S. passenger flights to force a halt in people interacting and moving
around the country.
Senior
officials have said that dozens of radical ideas are being considered and that
the president and his virus task force are moving quickly to protect the
nation.
Trump has
praised the public for following the rules he has put in place, but the new
plans are an acknowledgment that many people are not taking the warnings
seriously.
In some
areas, the National Guard has already been called out to enforce “stay in
place” orders, a model of what Trump is considering.
In
Washington, D.C., the Guard has been activated. The city on Friday extended
school closings until the end of April.
Wisconsin
has also activated the Guard, and it is in use in Florida, New Jersey, and
Arizona.
In
California, Gov. Gavin Newsom issued a statewide order for all residents to
stay at home until further notice. He has also put the National Guard on
notice.
More
Stay-at-home orders in major states mark next phase of U.S. coronavirus crisis
March 20, 2020 / 3:59 PM
LOS ANGELES/NEW YORK (Reuters) - New York
state, Illinois and Connecticut on Friday followed California in directing tens
of millions of people to stay at home in the most sweeping U.S.
social-distancing measures yet imposed for the escalating campaign to curb
transmission of the coronavirus.
The
unprecedented restrictions, impacting more than 75 million people, or nearly a
quarter of the U.S. population, order most workplaces to close and require
residents to remain inside except for trips to grocery stores, pharmacies, gas
stations and other “essential businesses.”
New Jersey
Governor Phil Murphy said he planned to issue similar directives within the
next 24 hours.
“To avoid
the loss of tens of thousands of lives we must order an immediate
shelter-in-place,” Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker said on Friday, using a term
that has commonly referred to self-protection measures exercised during mass
shootings. Illinois, which includes Chicago, has recorded 585 cases of the
disease including five deaths.
---- The five states where governors have
banned or will soon ban non-essential businesses and ask residents to stay home
account for about 31% of the U.S. economy, the world’s largest.
---- Cuomo, in issuing New York’s stay-at-home directive, said his state of nearly 20 million people faces a shortage of medical personnel and supplies such as ventilators and protective masks as it struggles with a public health crisis threatening to overwhelm its healthcare system.
“The
ventilators are to this war what missiles were to World War Two,” Cuomo said,
adding the state would “pay a premium” for extra stocks of personal protective
equipment. He urged companies capable of making such products to “get
creative.”
The
coronavirus pandemic sweeping the globe has paralyzed large parts of the
economy and upended lifestyles across the United States over the past week,
shuttering schools and businesses, prompting millions to work from home and
forcing many out of jobs while curtailing travel.
---- The
total number of known U.S. infections has climbed past 18,000, including at
least 250 deaths as of Friday evening, with the surge in cases over the past
few days reflecting an increase in diagnostic testing. Health experts believe
the actual number of COVID-19 cases to be far higher.
More
Talks on massive U.S. coronavirus stimulus bill pause for evening
March 21, 2020 / 2:52 AM
WASHINGTON
(Reuters) - U.S. senators and officials from President Donald Trump’s
administration interrupted negotiations late on Friday on what should be in a
massive bill to shore up the U.S. economy in the face of the coronavirus
crisis.
However,
they told reporters they intended to resume their talks on Saturday, despite
having missed a self-imposed Friday night deadline.
U.S. economy deteriorating faster than anticipated as 80 million Americans forced to stay at home
The U.S.
economy is deteriorating more quickly than was expected just days ago, as
extraordinary measures designed to curb the coronavirus keep 84 million
Americans penned in their homes and cause the near-total shutdown of most
businesses.
In a single
24-hour period, the governors of three of the largest states - California, New
York and Illinois - ordered residents to stay home, except to buy food and
medicine, while the governor of Pennsylvania ordered the closure of
nonessential businesses. Across the globe, health officials are struggling to
cope with the growing number of patients, with the World Health Organization
noting that while it required three months to reach 100,000 cases, it took only
12 days to hit another 100,000.
The
resulting economic meltdown, which is sending several million workers streaming
into the unemployment line, is outpacing the federal government's efforts to
respond. As the Senate on Friday raced to complete work on a financial rescue
package, the White House and key lawmakers were dramatically expanding its
scope, pushing the legislation far beyond the original $1 trillion price tag.
With each
day, an unprecedented stoppage gathers force, as restaurants, movie theaters,
sports arenas, and offices close to shield themselves from the disease.
Already, it's clear that the initial economic decline will be sharper and more
painful than during the 2008 financial crisis.
Next week,
roughly 3 million Americans will file first-time claims for unemployment
assistance, more than four times the record high set in the depths of the 1982
recession, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. That's just the start of
a surge that could send the jobless rate spiking to 20 percent from today's 3.5
percent, a JPMorgan Chase economist told clients on a conference call Friday.
Estimates of
the pandemic's overall cost are staggering. Bridgewater Associates, a prominent
hedge fund manager, says the economy will shrink over the next three months at
an annual rate of 30 percent. Goldman Sachs pegs the drop at 24 percent.
JPMorgan Chase says 14 percent.
---- Most economists expect the economy to begin climbing out of its deep hole in the second half of this year. But those forecasts depend upon the pandemic being brought under control and the U.S. and other governments enacting policies that prevent lasting harm to factories and financial arteries. Even if all that happens, the economy will be smaller at the end of this year than it was at the beginning, according to Bridgewater, Goldman and JPMorgan.
The truth is
no one really knows what will happen months from now. No one on Wall Street or
in Washington has any experience dealing with the kind of complex threat that
has suddenly materialized to upend American life: a global health scare that is
strangling the economy and disrupting financial markets.
More
Here’s how to track the mounting damage to the U.S. economy from the coronavirus
Published: March 20, 2020 at 12:05 p.m. ET
Number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits soaring
Millions
of people losing their jobs? Unemployment spiking to Great Recession levels or
higher? The mounting devastation to the economy from the coronavirus is about
to become starkly visible.
Table.
States around the country are reporting a massive surge in the number of people applying for jobless benefits. The incoming evidence such as a spike in Google searches suggests initial jobless claims could soon balloon to unprecedented levels.
A Goldman Sachs economist, for example, estimates new applications for unemployment benefits could zoom to more than 2 million in just one week when the latest report comes out next Thursday.
Such a increase would shatter the previous weekly record of 695,000 in 1982 and triple the high-water mark of 655,000 during the 2007-2009 Great Recession.
If the numbers keep soaring, it won’t be long before the number of people receiving unemployment benefits blows past a record peak of 6.6 million in 2009.
Read:The economy is in for tough times. Here’s one’ roadmap for recovery
The early evidence gives a hint of what is to come.
The number of people who applied for jobless benefits jumped 70,000 to a 2-1/2 year high of 281,000 in the second week of March, just as the crisis emerged. Only 10 months ago, they touched a 50-year low of 193,000.
A survey of manufacturers in the Philadelphia region, meanwhile, plunged to the lowest level in almost eight years. That’s just the tip of the iceberg.
The end of March will reveal how Americans have reacted to the unprecedented disruptions in their lives through reports on consumer sentiment (March 27) and consumer confidence (March 31). A daily survey by Morning Consult shows that confidence is plunging.
Then in early April comes a big one: The monthly employment report.
It’s possible the U.S. could post the first decline in jobs since 2010 and break a string of 113 straight months of increases, but a negative reading is more likely in April than in March. The government’s survey for March was mostly completed in the early part of the month before the coronavirus crisis exploded.
More
UK state to pay workers' wages to stem coronavirus layoffs
March 20, 2020 / 12:38 AM
LONDON (Reuters) - Britain’s government
will pay a massive share of private sector wage bills to discourage bosses from
firing staff as it resorts to war-time levels of borrowing to prop up the
economy during its coronavirus shutdown.
“Today I can
announce that for the first time in our history the government is going to step
in and help to pay people’s wages,” finance minister Rishi Sunak said on
Friday.
There was no
limit on the size of the plan which the government will fund by selling more
debt, as it will for other measures worth tens of billions of pounds rushed out
over the past 10 days.
Sunak also
allowed businesses to hold on to 30 billion pounds ($35 billion) of value-added
tax (VAT), which they would normally pass on to tax authorities.
“Combined
with our previous announcements on public services and business support, our
planned economic response will be one of the most comprehensive in the world,”
Sunak told reporters.
---- The centrepiece of Britain’s
coronavirus crisis plan is a new grant covering 80% of workers’ salaries - up
to a maximum of 2,500 pounds ($2,930) a month each - if firms kept them on.
---- The package of measures rushed out by the government this month could push Britain’s budget deficit back to 10% of gross domestic product, its peak after the global financial crisis, JP Morgan economist Allan Monks said.
“A war-time style temporary surge in borrowing is in prospect,” said Martin Beck, at Oxford Economics.
On Thursday, the Bank of England announced a 200 billion-pound increase in its bond-buying programme as well as a cut in interest rates to a new all-time low of 0.1%.
NEED FOR SPEED
Sunak, a 39 year-old former Goldman Sachs analyst who has been in the job for just over a month, said the wages support system would be up and running by the end of April, run for at least three months and be backdated to March 1.
More
Deutsche Bank warns virus may 'materially' impact targets
March 20, 2020 / 7:55 AM
FRANKFURT
(Reuters) - Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) said
on Friday that the impact of the coronavirus outbreak may affect the lender’s
ability to meet its financial targets as the fragile bank undergoes a major
revamp after years of losses.
The warning is the first time that Germany’s largest lender has sounded the alarm on the outbreak, which has upended the bank’s operations by causing it to split teams globally and cancel major events. Deutsche’s shares have fallen to a record low amid a broad market rout.
“We may be
materially adversely affected by a protracted downturn in local, regional or
global economic condition,” the bank said in its annual report.
The bank
said on Friday that its forecasts in its annual report didn’t factor in the
effect of the virus. The bank is expected to provide an update on the outlook
later in April when it reports earnings for the first quarter.
The bank has
been trying to engineer a turnaround, and some executives and investors
privately fear that the outbreak could stall the bank’s restructuring efforts.
Last year,
Deutsche posted a 5.7 billion euro (5.2 billion pounds) loss, its fifth in a
row, as the cost of its latest turnaround attempt hit earnings.
Until the
outbreak of the coronavirus in Europe, things had been looking up for Deutsche
this year. Its shares rallied, it successfully issued a risky bond, regained
market share in Germany and added new top investor.
More
Marks & Spencer warns of severe impact from coronavirus
March 20, 2020 / 7:18 AM
LONDON (Reuters) -
British retailer Marks & Spencer warned on Friday trading over the next
9-12 months in its clothing, homewares and international businesses was likely
to be “severely impacted” by the coronavirus pandemic.
To save cash, the group will not pay a final dividend for its 2019-20 financial year, and it said it was unable to provide meaningful guidance on earnings for 2020-21. However, it added the post-crisis future of the business was strong.
“M&S has served customers without cease through two world wars, terrorist bombings and numerous local disasters and we are determined to support our customers now as we always do,” the 136-year-old group said.
“While there are many uncertainties, we expect to come through this period in a strengthened competitive position.”
Shares in M&S were down 5.3% at 0829 GMT, taking losses for 2020 so far to 49%.
The group said it was seeing substantial sales declines in its clothing and home business and has had to manage costs accordingly, but expected to be able to redeploy significant numbers of staff to support its food business, where trading has so far remained strong. Some 4,600 have already been redeployed.
M&S is planning on the basis of a “prolonged downturn” in demand for clothing and homewares, and preparing for the contingency that some stores may have to close temporarily.
“However, our business model of operating parallel clothing and food businesses and our strategy to move online including the Ocado joint venture should provide more resilience than some single sector businesses,” it said.
DEFER SUPPLY
With margins likely to be severely impacted by the surplus of unsold seasonal clothing stock and probable clearance activity in the wider market, M&S said it was taking all possible steps to defer supply.
more
The Great Depression, like most other periods of severe
unemployment, was produced by government mismanagement rather than by any
inherent instability of the private economy.
Milton Friedman
Finally, yet more promising news in the fight against
Sars-CoV-2, plus more on chloroquine (CQ) phosphate which we covered
yesterday, and on hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) sulfate, a derivative of (CQ) which
might be better and safer.
British scientists discover antibody in blood of patient who fought off SARS that could NEUTRALISE coronavirus
·
Academics have discovered an antibody
that could neutralise the coronavirus
·
Researchers examined the blood of a
patient who had recovered from SARS
·
Using powerful x-ray machine they were
able to find an antibody from patient
·
Coronavirus
symptoms: what are they and should you see a doctor?
As the number of coronavirus
cases in the UK continue to escalate, scientists have offered a glimmer
of hope to the pandemic after discovering an antibody that could neutralise the
illness.
Academics working for the
non-profit organisation Diamond, in Harwell, Oxfordshire, have used their X-ray
machine, The Diamond Light Source, which works like a giant microscope, to
examine the blood of a patient who had previously being diagnosed with SARS (severe
acute respiratory syndrome).
The patient, who went on to
recover from the respiratory infection which originated in China in
2002, may now provide a new ray of hope for researchers looking for a possible
cure.
Using their powerful machine,
which uses electrons to produce light beams that allow scientists to
investigate viruses, staff at the synchrotron science facility, were able
to find an antibody from a patient who was originally diagnosed with the virus
in 2004 before going on to recover from it.
By
analysing the specimen, researchers discovered that the person had a powerful
antibody that could latch onto a virus and have it destroyed via the body's
natural immune defences.
----
Deputy life sciences director at Diamond, Professor Gwyndaf Evans, described
how the two viruses belonged to the same group of coronaviruses and could
therefore provide an insight into how to tackle the illness.
More
Hydroxychloroquine, a less toxic derivative of chloroquine, is effective in inhibiting SARS-CoV-2 infection in vitro
The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2/2019-nCoV) poses a serious threat to global public health and local economies. As of March 3, 2020, over 80,000 cases have been confirmed in China, including 2946 deaths as well as over 10,566 confirmed cases in 72 other countries. Such huge numbers of infected and dead people call for an urgent demand of effective, available, and affordable drugs to control and diminish the epidemic.We have recently reported that two drugs, remdesivir (GS-5734) and chloroquine (CQ) phosphate, efficiently inhibited SARS-CoV-2 infection in vitro1. Remdesivir is a nucleoside analog prodrug developed by Gilead Sciences (USA). A recent case report showed that treatment with remdesivir improved the clinical condition of the first patient infected by SARS-CoV-2 in the United States2, and a phase III clinical trial of remdesivir against SARS-CoV-2 was launched in Wuhan on February 4, 2020. However, as an experimental drug, remdesivir is not expected to be largely available for treating a very large number of patients in a timely manner. Therefore, of the two potential drugs, CQ appears to be the drug of choice for large-scale use due to its availability, proven safety record, and a relatively low cost. In light of the preliminary clinical data, CQ has been added to the list of trial drugs in the Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Treatment of COVID-19 (sixth edition) published by National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China.
This weekend’s musical diversion. A Mozart birthday celebration for Pope
Benedict. As always with Mozart, a completely ornate original introduction.
Perfectly performed by top American violinist Hilary Hahn.
Wolfgang Amadeus
Mozart - Violin Concerto No. 3 in G major, K. 216
16 April 2007 – an 80th
birthday tribute to Pope Benedict XVI – when more than 7000 guests filled the
vast Paul VI Audience Chamber at the Vatican to greet the Pontiff and to enjoy
a concert programme that he himself helped select. The featured performers are
two outstanding young classical musicians: the American violinist Hilary Hahn
and the Venezuelan conductor Gustavo Dudamel, along with the Stuttgart Radio
Symphony Orchestra (SWR) from the Pope’s native Germany.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished February
DJIA: 25,409
-75 Down. NASDAQ: 8,567 +171 Up. SP500: 2,954 +133 Up.
A mixed bag. But given the severity of the still growing coronavirus
crisis, I wouldn’t follow technical signals in what I think will turn into the
first depression since the 1930s. Barring a miracle recovery in all three
markets, the monthly Coppock indicators are heading for a reversal.
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