Baltic Dry Index. 562 +13 Brent Crude 52.01 Spot Gold 1639
Covid-19 Pandemic
underway, but not according to the WHO.
Coronavirus Cases 5/3/20
China 96,601 Deaths 3,308
(Maybe.)
If
all else fails, immortality can always be assured by spectacular error.
John Kenneth
Galbraith.
We are barely 3
months into the global coronavirus crisis, but already tourism has collapsed,
airlines are grounded, cruise ships have become prison ships spreading the
dangerous virus, major sporting events and trade shows and conferences
cancelled, the Olympics in doubt, car sales crashed, yet according to Wall
Street’s bubble purveyors, this is the perfect time to push the stock market
bubbles to new highs!
Call me an old
fashioned sceptic on this latest leg in bubble madness. To this old dinosaur market
follower since 1968, we are on the cusp of a global economy crash unlike all
others since the early 1930s.
The world’s second
largest economy is still mostly shut down, limping along at about a third of
capacity. Massive lay-offs lie directly
ahead in the tourism, airlines, hospitality, catering, and gambling industries.
Store based retailing will probably crash too before the coronavirus crisis
passes into history. Many not laid off, will suffer shorter hours, a lack of
tips, forced “temporary,” unpaid leave.
Our western world
hospital systems are about to get severely tested to breaking point, yet according
to Wall Street this is a time to buy more stocks!
I think it’s the
sell of the century.
Even on China’s
scripted, sanitised figures, and the rest of the world’s “barely test” figures, confirmed Covid-19
cases will soar past 100,000 on Sunday. The real figure might be 10 times
higher.
Below, good reason
to think this latest stock bubble is a spectacular error.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
Asian markets rise on ripple effects of Fed’s stimulus measures
By Associated Press
Published: Mar 4, 2020 10:42 p.m. ET
TOKYO — Asian shares rose Thursday, taking their cue from a
surge on Wall Street as governments and central banks took more aggressive
measures to fight the virus outbreak and its effects on the economy.Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 NIK, +1.19% rose 0.9% in early trading and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 XJO, +1.11% added 1%. South Korea’s Kospi 180721, +1.31% gained 0.7%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng HSI, +1.93% was up 1.2%, while the Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, +1.69% was also up 1.2%. Shares were also higher in southeast Asia.
The gains on Wall Street more than recouped big losses from a day earlier as wild, virus-fueled swings around the world’s markets extend into a third week.
Stocks rose sharply from the get-go, led by big gains for health care
stocks after Joe Biden solidified his contender status for the Democratic
presidential nomination. Investors see him as a more business-friendly
alternative to Bernie Sanders.
The rally’s momentum accelerated around midday after House and Senate
leadership reached a deal on a bipartisan $8.3 billion bill to battle the
coronavirus outbreak. The measure’s funds would go toward research into a
vaccine, improved tests and drugs to treat infected people.
Investors are also anticipating other central banks will follow up on
the Federal Reserve’s surprise move Tuesday to slash interest rates by half a
percentage point in hopes of protecting the economy from the economic fallout
of the new coronavirus. Canada’s central bank cut rates on Wednesday, also by
half a percentage point and citing the virus’ effect.
More
China reports uptick in coronavirus cases due to spike in Wuhan
March 5, 2020 /
12:39 AM
BEIJING (Reuters) - Mainland China reported a rise in new confirmed
cases of coronavirus on Wednesday, reversing three straight days of declines,
because of a spike in new infections in Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak.
Mainland China had 139 new confirmed cases on Wednesday, the country’s
National Health Commission said on Thursday, bringing the total accumulated
number of cases to 80,409.
The uptick on Wednesday was driven by an increase in cases in Wuhan, the
provincial capital of Hubei, where new infections climbed to 131 from 114 a day
earlier.
But the number of new confirmed cases in Hubei, excluding Wuhan, has
remained in single digits for seven consecutive days, with three new infections
recorded on Wednesday.
In the rest of mainland China, outside Hubei, there were only five new
confirmed cases, fenced in by tough public health measures imposed to contain
the spread of the pathogen.
The death toll from the outbreak in mainland China had reached 3,012 as
of the end of Wednesday, up by 31 from the previous day.
Hubei, the epicentre of the outbreak, accounted for all of the new
deaths. In Wuhan, 23 people died.
Coronavirus death toll jumps to 107 in Italy, all schools shut
March 4, 2020 /
2:20 PM
ROME
(Reuters) - Italy closed all schools and universities and took other emergency
measures on Wednesday to try to slow the spread of the coronavirus in Europe’s
worst-hit country as the death toll and number of cases jumped.
The total number of dead in Italy rose to 107 after 28 people died of
the highly contagious virus over the past 24 hours, the Civil Protection Agency
said.
Education Minister Lucia Azzolina said schools and universities all over
the country would be closed from Thursday until at least March 15. Only those
in the northern regions most heavily affected by the epidemic have been closed
so far.
The number of cases since the outbreak surfaced 13 days ago rose to
3,089 from 2,502 on Tuesday. Of those who contracted the disease, about 3.5%
had died, the head of the agency, Angelo Borrelli, said.
The government adopted a decree to try to slow infections which have
been rising by about 500 per day.
“Our hospitals, despite their efficiency, risk being overwhelmed, we
have a problem with intensive-care units,” Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said.
The decree orders “the suspension of events of any nature ... that
entail the concentration of people and do not allow for a safety distance of at
least one metre (yard) to be respected.”
It calls for the closure of cinemas and theatres and tells Italians not
to shake hands or hug each other, and to avoid “direct physical contact with
all people.”
It also orders all major sporting events, including top flight Serie A
soccer matches, to be played in empty stadiums.
---- The virus outbreak remains centred on the wealthy and populous region of Lombardy, around Milan, and the neighbouring regions of Veneto and Emilia Romagna, but cases are spreading around the whole of the Italian peninsula and Sicily.
Rome’s Spallanzani infectious diseases hospital said it had 20
coronavirus patients, while others were being treated at home in and around
Italy’s capital and largest city.
Emilia Romagna’s regional government said on Wednesday two of its
members had tested positive and Industry Minister Stefano Patuanelli is in
self-imposed isolation after coming into contact with a patient, though he
himself had tested negative.
The outbreak has already heavily disrupted life in the north, with
cinemas and museums closed in some regions and many events cancelled including
fashion shows and trade fairs.
---- Italy’s chronically weak economic growth looks sure to suffer, with the tourist sector taking a huge hit from a wave of cancellations.
Industry lobby Confindustria said the country was in recession,
forecasting a fall in gross domestic product in both the first and second
quarters of this year.
Confturismo, the tourist industry’s confederation, said the sector was
“on its knees.”
More
South Korea reports 438 new coronavirus cases, total 5,766
March 5, 2020 / 1:28 AM
SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korea confirmed 438 new coronavirus cases on
Thursday, taking total infections to 5,766.
The Korea Centers for Disease and Control and Prevention also said three
more deaths from the virus were reported, bringing the total to 35.
California declares emergency over coronavirus as death toll rises in U.S.
March 4, 2020 /
3:00 PM
LOS
ANGELES/NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. death toll from coronavirus infections
rose to 11 on Wednesday as new cases emerged around New York City and Los
Angeles, while Seattle-area health officials sought to allay anxiety amid the
nation’s largest outbreak.
Health officials said the first California death from the virus was an
elderly person in Placer County, near Sacramento. He had underlying health
problems and was likely exposed on a cruise ship voyage between San Francisco
and Mexico last month.
It marked the first coronavirus fatality in the United States outside of
Washington state, where 10 people have died in a cluster of at least 39
infections that have emerged through community transmission of the virus in two
Seattle-area counties.
Although the Placer County patient who died was not believed to have
contracted the virus locally, that case and a previous one from the Bay Area
linked to the same ocean liner have led health authorities to seek other cruise
passengers who may have had close contact with those two individuals.
Hours after that death was announced, California Governor Gavin Newsom
declared a statewide emergency in response to the coronavirus, which he said
has resulted in 53 cases across the nation’s most populous state.
More
United Airlines reduces U.S. flights, asks workers to take unpaid leave amid coronavirus outbreak
By Associated Press
Published: Mar 4, 2020 5:48 p.m. ET
United Airlines will reduce flights, freeze hiring and ask
employees to volunteer for unpaid leave as the airline struggles with weak
demand for travel because of the new virus outbreak.United UAL, +2.02% said Wednesday that starting in April it will reduce passenger-carrying capacity 20% on international routes and 10% in the U.S. — the first airline to cut domestic flying.
United officials said they will temporarily ground an unspecified number of planes.
The moves by United are the clearest sign yet of the financial harm to U.S. airlines from the virus, which has already led them to suspend flights to China and reduce service to other countries.
United announced the cuts shortly after several airline CEOs met at the White House with President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence. The administration is seeking the airlines’ help in tracing travelers who might have come in contact with people ill with COVID-19.
More
Singapore sends Turkish Airlines flight back empty after coronavirus case
March 5, 2020 /
1:56 AM
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - A Turkish Airlines aircraft was flown back to
Istanbul without any passengers on Thursday on orders from authorities in
Singapore after a passenger who had arrived on the same plane on Tuesday tested
positive for coronavirus.
Singapore’s aviation regulator said that the three pilots and 11 other
crew of flight TK54 that had arrived on Tuesday were on the return flight to
Istanbul, where they would be placed in quarantine.
“The crew had come into close contact with a passenger on flight TK54
who subsequently tested positive for COVID-19,” the Civil Aviation Authority of
Singapore (CAAS) said in a statement on Thursday.
“The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is in contact with the Turkish Embassy,
which has confirmed that the crew will be quarantined upon arrival at
Istanbul,” CAAS said.
Singapore’s
transport ministry said in a statement on its website that authorities had
begun tracing passengers on flight TK54 that may have had contact with the
infected person.
More
Finnair cancels more flights, plans layoffs
March 4, 2020 /
9:48 AM
OSLO (Reuters) - Finnish airline Finnair (FIA1S.HE) is cancelling
all flights to mainland China until April 30 and to Milan between March 9 and
April 7, and is reducing the frequency of its flights to several destinations
in Asia and Europe, it said on Wednesday. The carrier is also beginning talks about possible temporary layoffs. The carrier had warned on Feb. 28 of a significant fall in profits this year due to the coronavirus outbreak.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-corona-virus-finnair/finnair-cancels-more-flights-plans-layoffs-idUKKBN20R1BB?il=0
British regional airline Flybe says enters into administration
March 4, 2020 /
9:27 PM
LONDON
(Reuters) - British regional airline Flybe said early on Thursday it entered
into administration, as the already struggling carrier failed to withstand the
plunge in travel demand caused by coronavirus.
“All flights have been grounded and the UK business has ceased trading
with immediate effect,” the airline said, adding that accounting firm EY had
been called in to handle the administration, a form of creditor protection.
The airline’s failure puts 2,000 jobs at risk and causes a headache for
Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his plan to boost regional transport links.
---- Flybe is among the first airlines to go out of business since the emergence of coronavirus, which surfaced in China last year and has since claimed around 3,000 lives and sharply reduced travel demand.
Some major airlines have said they will need to cut costs to weather the downturn in bookings, particularly since late February when Europe’s worst outbreak emerged in Italy.
British Airways (ICAG.L), easyJet (EZJ.L), Lufthansa (LHAG.DE) and United Airlines (UAL.O) are amongst those announcing cost-saving measures.
More
Singapore's Tuas port among key projects facing coronavirus delays
March 5, 2020 /
3:36 AM
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Singapore’s transport minister has warned a
coronavirus outbreak could cause delays to construction of multi-billion-dollar
projects in the wealthy Asian city-state, such as a fifth terminal at Changi
airport and the port of Tuas.
“For now, the delay to project timelines is still manageable,” Khaw Boon
Wan told parliament on Thursday, the Straits Times newspaper said.
“But if the outbreak drags on, it could disrupt the supply of
construction equipment and materials.”
The first of four phases of construction at Tuas port, expected to be
the world’s biggest container terminal, is due to be completed in 2021, at an
expected cost of about $1.8 billion (£1.4 billion)
A fifth airport terminal is expected to boost capacity by more than half
when it is completed in the early 2030s. It forms part of expansion plans
forecast to cost tens of billions of dollars.
Singapore has 112 cases of the virus, which originated in China and has
disrupted global supply chains, clouding timelines for products and swelling
manufacturing costs.
New train stations and road toll systems are among other projects that
face delays, Khaw added.
Limited virus testing in Japan masks true scale of infection
by Isabel Reynolds, Shiho Takezawa and Emi Nobuhiro
Mar 2, 2020
Japan is becoming a center of concern as the coronavirus
spreads globally, with the country’s official infection tally suspected to be
the tip of the iceberg of a much wider outbreak.As of Monday afternoon, Japan had 263 confirmed cases of the pneumonia-causing virus, excluding those from the Diamond Princess cruise ship quarantined for weeks in Yokohama bay. In neighboring South Korea, however, infections have swelled rapidly, reaching more than 4,000 after the government tested tens of thousands of people to get a clearer picture of the deadly outbreak.
That divergence has experts — and members of the public — concerned about Japan’s approach to diagnosis.
“For every one who tests positive there are probably hundreds with mild symptoms,” said Masahiro Kami, chair of the Medical Governance Research Institute in Tokyo, and a practicing doctor. “Those with mild symptoms are not being tested.”
While the government says it has the capacity to do 3,800 tests a day, only 5,700 were actually carried out from Feb. 18 to 23, health minister Katsunobu Kato told the Diet on Wednesday. That included the tests on all aboard the Diamond Princess, where Japan’s attempt to quarantine the ship resulted in an explosion of more than 700 infections.
Japan’s low level of confirmed infections has enabled Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to maintain a relatively relaxed stance on the outbreak compared with South Korea and China, where more than 80,000 cases and over 2,900 deaths have been recorded.
Unlike other countries in the region, Japan has only imposed partial bans on people from highly infected nations — including China — and Abe has encouraged, but not enforced, the cancellation of major public events. Despite the government’s request for people to work remotely from home or stagger their commutes, however, many in Tokyo continue to board packed trains. As public criticism mounted, Abe last week asked all schools to temporarily close, starting Monday.
“In order to grasp the current situation, we should test,” said lawmaker Kazuhiro Haraguchi of the opposition Democratic Party for the People. “Tests are not 100 percent reliable, but we need to know the facts.”
More
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/02/national/limited-virus-testing-japan/#.Xl-PjErLfIU
Food suppliers hit by sudden school closures due to virus crisis in Japan
Mar 4, 2020
Government-requested nationwide school closures aimed at
tackling the new coronavirus are impacting suppliers of ingredients for school
lunches across the nation, with some facing the need to dispose of food already
purchased.The sudden cancellations of school lunch-related orders for March are likely to leave some companies with more food than is needed for deliveries in the month.
School operators “are big customers to tiny companies in rural areas,”
said a butcher in the Tohoku region.
The butcher said a municipal government suddenly canceled a ¥2 million
deal for March, and that he has no idea what to do with the meat he already
purchased.
Emergency closures began at many schools across the nation Monday,
following Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s abrupt request last week. The measure is
aimed at keeping schools shut until the regular spring break ends in early
April.
“I hear that the government will subsidize leave allowances for workers
who took time off due to the school closures, but what should business
operators like us do?” the man said, angrily.
Around 70 percent of the milk produced by Nagatoshi Milk of Dazaifu,
Fukuoka Prefecture, is provided to schools for lunches.
“We’ve been delivering some 120,000 bottles of milk each day for school
lunches,” said Satoshi Hasegawa, head of the company.
“Expected sales of ¥65 million disappeared as orders for March were
canceled,” said Hasegawa, 65.
A limited amount of the produced raw milk can be made into powdered skim
milk and other products. But in the worst case, the remainder will have to be
disposed of, he said.
The company is suspending factory operations and having employees take
regular paid leave for now. “I can’t see how things will go from April,” he
said, anxiously.
Morehttps://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/04/national/coronavirus-led-school-closures-hit-food-suppliers-japan/#.Xl-OhErLfIU
China's passenger car sales fall 80% Feb on coronavirus epidemic
March 4, 2020 /
8:15 AM
BEIJING (Reuters) - Passenger car retail sales in China,
the world’s biggest auto market, fell 80% in February because of the
coronavirus epidemic, one of the country’s industry associations said on
Wednesday. The China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) said in a statement that China’s overall passenger car sales dropped 80%, without giving a full sales figure for the month.
“Dealers returned to work gradually in the first three weeks of February and their showroom traffic is very low,” CPCA said, adding it expects February’s sales drop will be the steepest of this year.
Japanese automaker Toyota (7203.T), the first major global automaker to report its February sales in China, said it sold 23,800 Toyota and premium Lexus cars last month, down by 70% from a year earlier.
The world’s biggest car market is bracing for further bad news as efforts to curb the spread of the coronavirus, which has killed more than 2,900 people in mainland China, disrupts global supply chains and dampens consumer demand.
Toyota rival General Motors (GM.N), China’s second biggest foreign automaker, said the industry will face “serious challenges” in the first quarter this year, but anticipates the situation will ease in the second quarter, its China president Matt Tsien said in a post on GM’s official WeChat account.
GM hopes China’s auto sales will report year-on-year growth in the second half of this year, Tsien added.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-toyota/chinas-passenger-car-sales-fall-80-in-feb-on-coronavirus-epidemic-idUKKBN20R0ZX?il=0
German February new car registrations fall 11% on the year - source
March 4, 2020 /
10:02 AM
HAMBURG, Germany (Reuters) - German new passenger car registrations
dropped by 11% year-on-year in February to just under 240,000 vehicles, a
source familiar with the figures told Reuters on Wednesday.
It was not immediately clear if the decline was related to the
coronavirus outbreak, the source added.
German car authority KBA is due to publish official figures later on
Wednesday.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-germany-autos/german-february-new-car-registrations-fall-11-on-the-year-source-idUKKBN20R1D4?il=0Finally, Ray Dalio thinks he sees big trouble ahead for some insurers and some options traders. Who am I to disagree, although naked stock index options writers are relatively few and far between, and usually have offsetting price protection strategies that kick in before a total wipe-out.
Dalio said those who insured against coronavirus fallout could be ‘annihilated’
By Steve
Goldstein Published: Mar 4, 2020
7:16 a.m. ET
The co-founder of the world’s biggest hedge fund last month
said he was more
concerned about the wealth gap than the spreading coronavirus.Ray Dalio, the co-chief investment officer and co-chairman of Bridgewater Associates, is a bit more worried now.
In a Tuesday night post on LinkedIn, Dalio said insurers and those who sold deep-out-of-the-money options planning to earn the premiums could be annihilated.
“It seems to me that this is one of those once in 100 years catastrophic events that annihilates those who provide insurance against it and those who don’t take insurance to protect themselves against it because they treat it as the exposed bet that they can take because it virtually never happens,” Dalio said. He didn’t identify any of those companies by name.
“The markets are being, and will continue to be, affected by these sorts of market players getting squeezed and forced to make market moves because of cash-flow issues rather than because of thoughtful fundamental analysis,” Dalio said. “We are seeing this in very unusual and fundamentally unwarranted market action. Also, what’s interesting is how attractive some companies with good cash yields have become, especially as many market players have been shaken out.”
He said “markets will probably not distinguish well between those which can and cannot withstand well the temporary shock.”
Markets might put too much attention on companies seeing a temporary hit to revenue and underweight the credit impact, he warned.
What about the Fed’s surprise half-point interest-rate cut?
“Interest-rate cuts and increased liquidity won’t lead to any material pickup in buying and activity from people who don’t want to go out and buy, though they can goose risky asset prices a bit at the cost of bringing rates closer to hitting ground zero,” he said, adding that monetary authorities in Japan and Europe were out of gas.
More
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dalio-said-those-who-insured-against-coronavirus-fallout-could-be-annihilated-2020-03-04?mod=mw_latestnews
There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Below, there may be trouble with our painkillers and antibiotics ahead.
“The drug supply
situation is emblematic of a lot of issues in manufacturing: there was an
explosion of offshoring of manufacturing to China, but we didn’t understand the
strategic risk involved for a lot of these very important products.”
Coronavirus could cause global medicine shortages as China’s factory closures hit supply chains
·
Factory activity in China – the top producer of
active pharmaceutical ingredients – hit all-time low in February after measures
to halt outbreak
·
US and Europe monitoring short-term delays, with
antibiotics, diabetes medications, HIV drugs and ibuprofen among those heavily
reliant on China
Simone McCarthy Published: 3:46pm, 4 Mar, 2020
China’s efforts to contain the coronavirus by initially shutting down factories and
keeping workforces at home could have global ramifications for public health
around the world, including regarding diabetes, blood pressure, headaches and
fevers.
As the world’s top producer of active pharmaceutical ingredients,
including the ones used to manage those conditions, China’s disrupted factory
output has the potential to upset global supply chains, and regulators have
been watching with concern.
The United States’ Food and Drug Administration (FDA) last Thursday
announced that one drug was already in short supply after production of its
active pharmaceutical ingredient was affected by the coronavirus. It declined
to name the drug or say where it was made.
The
FDA has been closely monitoring the supply chain with the expectation that the
Covid-19 outbreak would probably impact the medical product supply chain,
including potential disruptions to supply or shortages of critical medical
products in the US,” FDA commissioner Stephen Hahn said, adding that the
administration had identified 20 drugs with active ingredients sourced solely
from China.
Europe has been bracing for a similar impact. The European Union’s
European Medicines Agency said last Thursday it was “analysing and monitoring”
the potential impact of the outbreak on pharmaceutical supply chains into the
EU, although it had yet to receive any reports of supply disruptions.
Antibiotics, blood pressure and diabetes medications, antiretroviral
treatments for HIV and Aids, common household products such as the pain and
fever reducer ibuprofen, and the steroid hydrocortisone all fall within China’s
sprawling industrial production of generic drugs and their active ingredients.
Those
ingredients, which in most cases are no longer under patent, had a combined
export value of over US$30 billion in 2018, according to the latest figures
from the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Medicines and
Health Products.
Eighty
per cent of the active pharmaceutical ingredients in the United States are
imported, with the majority coming from China and India.
Last year, the proportion of US imports of medicines that came from
China included 95 per cent of ibuprofen, 91 per cent of hydrocortisone, 70 per
cent of paracetamol, 40 to 45 per cent of penicillin and 40 per cent of
heparin, according to data from the US Commerce Department.
Tracking which of those ingredients are used in generic medicines
stocked in pharmacies and hospitals around the world is not straightforward,
according to Michael Osterholm, director of the Centre for Infectious Disease
Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, because ingredients are
often shipped from China to drug manufacturers in India before heading
elsewhere in the world.
But knowing exactly which products may be vulnerable is critical to
ensuring supplies, he said.
“In an outbreak, sometimes some of the worst suffering can come from the
collateral damage as we try to contain it,” said Osterholm, who leads a
research project that has been combing through shipping and licensing records
and working with industry and international groups to gather more information
on the supply chains.
“The drug supply situation is emblematic of a lot of issues in
manufacturing: there was an explosion of offshoring of manufacturing to China,
but we didn’t understand the strategic risk involved for a lot of these very
important products.”
More
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Coronavirus fatality rates vary dramatically depending on age, gender, medical history and country
By Quentin
Fottrell Published: Mar 4, 2020 8:30
p.m. ET
As the COVID-19 spreads, scientists are learning more about
the disease’s fatality rate.“Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director general of the World Health Organization, said at a press briefing in Geneva this week.
That’s more than previous estimates of around 2% and the influenza fatality rate of less than 1%.
Tedros previously said the fatality rate in Wuhan, China, considered the epicenter of the outbreak, is between 2% and 4%. Outside of Wuhan, it is thought to be closer to 0.7%, although some estimates put it at closer to 2%. The epidemic is “affecting countries in different ways,” he added.
Worldwide, there are now a total of 95,062 COVID-9 cases and at least 3,250 deaths; about 51,000 people worldwide have recovered, according to a the latest tally published by the Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering’s Centers for Systems Science and Engineering.
Just how deadly is the virus? The medical journal JAMA released this paper analyzing data from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention on 72,314 coronavirus cases in mainland China, the figure as of Feb. 11, the largest such sample in a study of this kind.
The sample’s overall case-fatality rate was 2.3%, in line with the earlier global estimates for the virus. No deaths occurred in those aged 9 years and younger, but cases in those aged 70 to 79 years had an 8% fatality rate and those aged 80 years and older had a fatality rate of 14.8%.
No deaths were reported among mild and severe cases. The fatality rate was 49% among critical cases, and elevated among those with preexisting conditions: 10.5% for people with cardiovascular disease, 7.3% for diabetes, 6.3% for chronic respiratory disease, 6% for hypertension, and 5.6% for cancer.
The latest China-based study, which was not peer-reviewed by U.S. scientists, found that men had a fatality rate of 2.8% versus 1.7% for women. Some doctors have said that women may have a stronger immune system as a genetic advantage to help babies during pregnancy.
The Chinese study is likely not representative of what might happen if the global spread of the virus worsens, particularly as regards gender. In China, nearly half of men smoke cigarettes versus 2% of women, which could be one reason for the gender disparity.
While the number of new cases in China continues to drop off, growing infection clusters in Iran, Italy and South Korea remain. Iran has 2,922 cases and 92 deaths; Italy has 3,089 cases and 107 deaths; and South Korea has 5,621 cases and 35 deaths; 11 people have died in the U.S.
The high death rate in countries such as Iran (4.4% based on the current number of confirmed cases) could also be related to officials in that country underestimating the number of actual cases. If coronavirus infections are actually higher in that country, the fatality rate would obviously fall.
more
“It is difficult not to marvel at the imagination which was implicit in this gargantuan insanity. If there must be madness something may be said for having it on a heroic scale."
John Kenneth Galbraith. The Great Crash: 1929.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished February
DJIA: 25,409 +75 Down. NASDAQ: 8,567 +171 Up.
SP500: 2,954 +133 Up.
In current circumstances,
this is no time to be blindly following technical signals.
No comments:
Post a Comment