Baltic Dry Index. 630 -01 Brent Crude 29.20 Spot Gold 1486
Covid-19 Pandemic finally
underway, according to the WHO, at long last!
Coronavirus Cases 19/3/20
World 245,859 Deaths 10,048 (Maybe.)
It
is hard to believe a man is telling the truth when you know that you would lie
if you were in his place.
H.
L. Mencken.
Today, finally
some good Covid-19 news. Scientists in China, back in February, seem to have found a widely available, cheap
drug, used for many years against malaria, that’s effective against the Sars-Cov-2
virus that leads to Covid-19 infection.
I’m not a
scientist nor a doctor, so I don’t want to spread false hope, but this could be
the first major breakthrough prior to getting a vaccine.
Scientists in
France earlier in the week released backup findings that seem to confirm the
earlier finding. Chloroquine phosphate doesn’t cure Covid-19 apparently, but
drops the infectious state from up to 30 days down to 3 to 5 days.
What
this might do, if widely used as a treatment, is greatly reduce the spread of
new infection, and just might save all countries healthcare systems from
getting swamped.
Using
the WHO’s still tentative figures, each Covid-19 infected person, whether
showing symptoms or not, will infect 2.5 new victims every 5 days. Assuming they
go on infecting new victims at the same rate, after a month you get to about
400 total infections from that original source. Even if that’s overstated by 50
percent, that’s still some 200 new Covid-19 cases.
But if
the first Covid-19 case is treated with
chloroquine phosphate and self isolates,
or in more serious cases is hospitalised, the rate of new infection might be
dropped down to the low teens. Herd
immunity just might build in a controllable tolerable way. A buffer might be
available on the long journey to a vaccine.
More study
is needed as to exactly how this drug is acting on Covid-19 infection, and
whether it can be tweaked to become even more effective, but there just may be
light at the end of the coronavirus crisis tunnel.
Here’s why Trump and Elon Musk see potential in a drug called chloroquine to treat coronavirus
Published Thu, Mar 19 20203:27 PM EDTUpdated
6 hours ago
When Dr. Mike Pellini, a physician and biotech investor,
read the news about the spread of a virus that caused pneumonia-like symptoms,
he decided to keep on hand a supply of an anti-malarial drug called
chloroquine. Pellini, who tweeted about the decision to his followers in early February, was early to this thinking. A month later, Tesla CEO Elon Musk sparked massive interest in the drug after tweeting that chloroquine was “maybe worth considering” as a potential treatment for the COVID-19 coronavirus.
On Thursday, the White House took notice.
President Donald Trump said he had directed the Food and Drug Administration to investigate whether chloroquine, which is available by prescription only, should be given to patients with the virus. Bayer, the international drugmaker, then noted in a press release that it would donate 3 million tablets of the drug Resochin, or chloroquine phosphate, to U.S. patients. Trump also pointed to another existing drug, remdesivir, an anti-viral developed by drugmaker Gilead, which is already being used in China to treat COVID-19.
Neither drug is currently approved by the FDA to treat the coronavirus. So it is important “not to provide false hope,” FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn said at the White House’s daily press briefing. But Trump has “asked us to be aggressive” and “break through exciting, lifesaving treatment, and we’re doing that at the FDA,” he added.
Early promising data
So what is chloroquine, and why is it considered so promising by the scientific community?The drug has been around since the 1940s and is known for being generally safe and well tolerated in mild to moderate doses, although it can be toxic in high doses. It has been used to treat malaria, in addition to some autoimmune disorders. It is available as a generic, which means it could be a scalable and potentially affordable treatment.
“Nothing is definitive yet, but chloroquine is a drug used for more than 70 years with minimal side effects at a modest dosage,” said Pellini.
Malaria is caused by a parasite, not a virus. But some studies have found that chloroquine has been effective at treating a virus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, a close relative of COVID-19. It is also being studied at research labs throughout the world as a way to alleviate symptoms for patients diagnosed with COVID-19.
“It has been found in mice to be effective to treat a variety of viruses,” noted Dr. Kristian Olson, an associate professor at Harvard Medical School and internal medicine physician at Massachusetts General Hospital. “It also appears it’s active in vitro (via test tube experiments) against COVID-19.”
Some of the early data is promising. A group of researchers in France are testing a less toxic derivative of the chloroquine drug called hydroxychloroquine on a few dozen patients with COVID-19, and early reports of the trial indicate that the drug might help shorten the amount of time that people with the disease are infectious.
Because of these early signs, some biotech experts say it’s worth putting more research dollars into studying the drug.
More
In less good
economic news, will it be a new global recession or the world’s first
depression since the 1930s?
Global economy already in recession on coronavirus devastation - Reuters poll
March 20, 2020 /
12:25 AM
BENGALURU (Reuters) - The global economy is already in a recession as
the hit to economic activity from the coronavirus pandemic has become more
widespread, according to economists polled by Reuters amid a raft of central
bank stimulus actions this week.
The spread of the disease caused by the virus, COVID-19, has sent
financial markets into a tailspin despite some of the biggest emergency
stimulus measures since the global financial crisis announced by dozens of
central banks across Europe, the Americas, Asia and Australia.
The panic was clear in stocks, bonds, gold and commodity prices,
underlining expectations of severe economic damage from the outbreak.
More than three-quarters of economists based in the Americas and Europe
polled this week, 31 of 41, said the current global economic expansion had
already ended, in response to a question about whether the global economy was
already in recession.
“Last week we concluded that the COVID-19 shock would produce a global
recession as nearly all of the world contracts over the three months between
February and April,” noted Bruce Kasman, head of global economic research at JP
Morgan.
“There is no longer doubt that the longest global expansion on record
will end this quarter. The key outlook issue now is gauging the depth and the
duration of the 2020 recession.”
Economists have repeatedly cut their growth outlook over the past month
and have increased their forecast probabilities for recession in most major
economies.
More
Live updates: California governor issues statewide stay-at-home order; Confirmed coronavirus cases in the U.S. doubled in two days
March 20, 2020 at 2:01 a.m. GMT
California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) issued a statewide
stay-at-home order starting Thursday evening. “This is a moment we need to make
tough decisions," Newsom said at an online news conference. It is the
strongest statewide restriction yet aimed at stemming the spread of the
coronavirus. The announcement follows similar orders issued in the past few
days across the San Francisco Bay area and Los Angeles.
As the novel coronavirus continued to spread globally
Thursday, in the United States the number of confirmed cases doubled. The
dramatic increase stems in part from more testing, but also indicates how much
the virus has spread. On Tuesday, there were just more than 5,700 confirmed
coronavirus cases in the United States. That number climbed above 11,500 on Thursday, and officials indicated
the number will continue to rise sharply as more test results become available.
Here are some other significant developments:
- Senate Republicans introduced a $1 trillion fiscal package — the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act — which includes sending direct cash payments to many Americans.
- The State Department warned Americans not to travel internationally and advised all Americans who are abroad to return to the United States or make preparations to shelter in place.
- Italy on Thursday hit a grim milestone, surpassing China for the largest number of coronavirus-related deaths, at 3,405. Morgues in Italy are running out of capacity.
- To address medical supply shortages, new legislation provides manufacturers of N95 face masks protection against lawsuits when selling certain masks to healthcare workers. That will free producers including 3M and Honeywell to sell tens of millions more masks per month to hospitals, according to Vice President Pence, who said "they are available now.”
- CDC data now shows that younger adults are a large percentage of coronavirus hospitalizations in the United States.
- India barred incoming commercial flights for a week, and Australia and New Zealand closed their borders to everyone except citizens and residents. The United Arab Emirates went further, stopping expatriate residents from returning to the country. Meanwhile, Italy is extending lockdown measures.
- President Trump cancelled the in-person G-7 summit scheduled for June at Camp David, due to the coronavirus pandemic, deciding instead to hold the annual meeting by videoconference.
Spain to close all hotels, help nursing homes as coronavirus deaths climb
March 19, 2020 /
3:52 PM
MADRID (Reuters) - The Spanish
government on Thursday ordered the closure of all the country’s hotels and
promised to implement special measures in nursing homes after a surge in the
country’s coronavirus cases and deaths.
Officials reported deaths had jumped by more than a third on Thursday to
767, while the number of cases rose by a quarter to 17,149, making Spain the
second worst-hit country in Europe after Italy.
The government decreed all hotels and other tourist accommodation be
shut within seven days to “guarantee the containment of the pandemic,” a
further hit to the country’s already ailing tourism sector.
Spain, the second most visited country in the world in 2018, has already
closed its land borders to all but its nationals and residents.
Long-term boarding houses were exempted from the closure, but still
subjected to a state of emergency imposed by the government almost a week ago
that bars people from all but essential outings.
“The toughest moments are still to come, those moments when we will
continue to see an increase in the number of cases,” Health Minister Salvador
Illa said earlier on Thursday.
Several thousand troops have been deployed in dozens of cities across
the country to help with decontamination efforts, triage and policing. Army
units were deployed for the first time on Thursday in the independence-minded
region of Catalonia, for disinfection tasks at Barcelona’s airport and port.
Authorities said 49 people had been arrested for flouting the movement
bans in the past few hours.
More
Air Canada to lay off over 5,100 employees due to virus outbreak - union
March 20, 2020 /
5:05 AM
(Reuters) - Air Canada will temporarily lay off more than 5,100
employees as it attempts to check the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the
union representing the Canadian airline’s flight attendants said on Friday.
The Canadian Union of Public Employees (CUPE) said it was “deeply
saddened” to learn that airline would temporarily lay off about 3,600 of its
members at Air Canada mainline and all 1,549 of its members at Air Canada
Rouge.
CUPE, which represents about 10,000 flight attendants at Air Canada and
Air Canada Rouge, said the layoffs were effective until April 30 at the
earliest.
Air Canada has initiated discussions with its unions to begin placing
employees on temporary, off-duty status, the company told Reuters on Friday.
“Employees would be returned to active duty status when we ramp up our
network schedule as conditions allow,” the company said in an emailed
statement.
Earlier this week, Air Canada said it would gradually suspend the
majority of its international and U.S. trans-border flights by March 31 in
response to the coronavirus crisis.
More
British Airways pilots to face pay cut due to coronavirus: FT
March 19, 2020 /
11:53 PM
(Reuters) - British Airways (ICAG.L)
pilots will face a 50% pay cut to their basic salary for April and May, as the
airline seeks to reduce its cost to try survive the coronavirus crisis, the
Financial Times reported on.ft.com/2xdsAYR
on Thursday. British Airways in a letter to its staff said it had agreed to initial measures with BALPA, the UK-based pilot union that aims to address “the immediate threat to the business in the face of COVID-19 and the unprecedented impact this is having on the airline,” the newspaper reported.
But a union source told FT that pilots’ pay cut would work out to less
than 50% based on an agreement that pilots can temporarily suspend their
pension contributions.
The BALPA denied that there would be 50% pay cuts.
“Discussions have not been finalised and we are not commenting on live
negotiations but we can say that reports of 50% pay cuts for pilots in BA are
wrong,” a BALPA spokeswoman said in an emailed statement.
The pay cut would be split over three months, the FT said.
Last week, British Airways Chief Executive Officer Alex Cruz told its
staff of plans to cut jobs and ground aircraft to tackle the situation caused
by coronavirus.
Next, some of the new reality
in the coronavirus sickened America.
For U.S. small restaurants, coronavirus impact is swift and brutal
March 19, 2020 /
10:17 AM
WASHINGTON/SAN
FRANCISCO (Reuters) - On St. Patrick’s Day last year, Amy and Chris Hillyard
marked the 30th anniversary of Farley’s, their pair of cafes in San Francisco
and Oakland, California, with live bagpipes and noisy crowds.
This year, they spent the day quietly packing up beans, granola, and a
vegan coconut curry made from unsold produce to give to the 40 employees they
had to lay off on March 16.
In the space of a month, the Hillyards had gone from their strongest
financial period, ever, to at least temporarily closing their doors.
“We were running at the top of our game as a business and it’s just
devastating to have to turn off the engine,” Amy said.
The rapidly escalating coronavirus outbreak in the United States has begun
to decimate the restaurant industry as an increasing number of states and
regions enforce population lockdowns and close eateries, bars, gyms and other
“non-essential” businesses.
The food service industry is the nation’s second-largest private employer,
with 15.6 million employees, according to the National Restaurant Association,
which counts 1 million restaurants, including fast food outlets, in the United
States.
Of these, 90% are small businesses with fewer than 50 employees, NRA
says, a figure that includes franchised chain stores, which are usually
independently owned.
Restaurants are notoriously high-risk businesses, typically running on
pretax margins of 3 to 6%, which makes them extremely vulnerable in a downturn.
The trade group estimates U.S. restaurants could take a sales hit of up
to $225 billion in the next three months, a quarter of the $899 billion in
sales that they had expected for the full year.
Approximately 6.7 million people in the San Francisco Bay Area, a
coronavirus hotspot, have been ordered since Tuesday to stay home until April 7
except for essential outings. This type of lockdown is set to become more
widespread as cases of the virus rise elsewhere.
On the U.S. East Coast, New Jersey, New York and Connecticut struck a
regional agreement on Monday to close all movie theatres, casinos and gyms. New
York City may soon also issue a “shelter in place” order. Restaurants and bars
in the three states - where about 32 million people live - will serve takeout
and delivery only.
More
Brace for credit shocks as heaps of U.S. oil-field service company debt comes, warns Moody’s
Published: March 18, 2020 at 7:44 p.m. ET
Concerns are mounting as North American oil-field services
and drilling companies face a $32 billion wave of debt coming due this year
through 2024, a worry even before oil prices collapsed to a nearly two-decade
low and the coronavirus outbreak grew into a global pandemic.Now the outlook seems particularly grim for weaker companies needing credit, as drilling work dries up and oil prices collapse to about $20 a barrel, amid rising COVID-19 infections and Saudi Arabia and Russian threats to flood global markets with more crude output.
Read: Dismal oil demand outlook, Saudi-Russian price war lead to ‘atomic bomb’-like environment for oil
“The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak, deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit shock across many sectors, regions and markets,” wrote Sreedhar Kona, a Moody’s senior analyst, in a report Wednesday.
Kona pointed out that smaller regionally or service-focused oil-field services companies “face the brunt of the sector’s weakness, and therefore the greatest refinancing risk.”
While the sector’s biggest investment-grade firms, Schlumberger Ltd SLB, -13.92%, Baker Hughes BKR, -13.77%, Halliburton Co. HAL, -24.91% and National Oilwell Varco NOV, -10.08% , offer other services that can offset slashed drilling activity, Moody’s warns that the bulk of the nearing maturities come from riskier, smaller players.
Here’s a chart of North American oil-field service company debt maturing through 2024 grouped by credit-ratings category:
---- All told, speculative-grade, or
“junk-rated” companies account for about 65% of the $32 billion of North
American oil-field service debt maturing over the roughly two-year period.
---- The energy-heavy $1.5 trillion U.S. junk-bond market, which often tracks the tone in equities, has seen heavy carnage too.
About a third of U.S. junk bonds were trading at distressed ratios
earlier this week, indicating the market was expecting an 7.66% default rate
over the next 12 months, up from Moody’s 4.4% forecast, according to Marty
Fridson, chief investment officer of Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors.
Breaking out only energy debt put expected defaults at 14.08%, or nearly
double, he noted in a Tuesday research note.
More
U.S. jobless claims surge 70,000 to 281,000 in mid-March as coronavirus triggers layoffs
Published: March 19, 2020 at 8:44 a.m. ET
The numbers: The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits surged by
70,000 in mid-March to a 2- 1/2-year high as the coronavirus shut down large
sections of the economy. And the worst is still yet to come with the crisis
triggering waves of layoffs.
Initial jobless claims climbed by 70,000 to a seasonally adjusted
281,000 in the seven days ended March 14, the government said Thursday. That’s
the highest level since September 2017.
Economists polled by MarketWatch had conservatively forecast a 220,000 reading,
but said a much larger number was easily conceivable in light of the
fast-moving crisis.
Employees are being laid off or furloughed in countless businesses. Some
of the hardest hit include airlines, hotels, tourism agencies, retailers and
restaurants.
New applications for unemployment benefits could soon surge to levels
last seen during the worst of the 2007-2009 Great Recession, economists say.
Weekly claims peaked at 655,000 in early 2009.
Read:Huge spike in Google searches for ‘unemployment benefits’ give a stark picture of economic
carnage to come
What happened: New applications for financial help rose the most in California and Washington state, two of the states hit hardest by the viral outbreak.
Jobless claims are expected to reach even higher crests in the next month. A crush of new applications early this week briefly caused websites in states such as New York and Oregon to briefly seize up.
In Rhode Island, nearly 7,000 people filed new jobless claims on Monday, compared to just 160 on the prior Monday. Such dramatic increases are being reported all over the country.
More
Finally, what a
way to waste good whisky.
Why whisky could kill the coronavirus (but drinking it won’t work)
·
The virus that causes Covid-19 appears more
vulnerable than Sars, which means a 40 per cent solution, typically found in
alcoholic spirits, can be enough to destroy it
·
Researchers stress that downing shots is not
recommended.
Stephen Chen in Beijing Published:
6:57pm, 19 Mar, 2020
The new coronavirus is more sensitive to alcohol than Sars or Mers and
can be killed almost completely by ethanol concentrations as low as 30 per
cent, according to a joint study by scientists from Germany and Switzerland.
Though many spirits such as whisky or gin have an alcohol content higher
than that, scientists do not recommend using them as a disinfectant unless in
desperate situations and they stressed that people should not regard drinking
as a way to prevent or cure Covid-19.
Stephanie Pfaender, the lead scientist of the study, said on Wednesday
that their experiment was conducted in a laboratory setting, therefore “one
cannot directly translate these findings towards personal use upon application
of whiskey, rum etc”.
She continued: “We would definitely not recommend the behaviour (of
drinking), as we are talking about a minimal final alcohol concentration that
has to come into contact with the virus for a defined time.”
---- The European team found the formula could
eliminate viral activities after 30 seconds of contact and an examination of
the treated cells showed no more damage caused by the virus.
---- They then repeated the tests at lower
concentrate rates. At 10 and 20 per cent, most of the viral strains (80 and 70
per cent respectively) remained intact.
But as the alcohol content reached 30 per cent they were surprised to
find a disinfection rate on a par with the WHO formula
More
Jean-Claude
Juncker. Failed Luxembourg Prime Minister and ex-president of the Euro Group of
Finance Ministers. Confessed liar. European Commission President. Scotch
connoisseur.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Given our crazy whipsaw
markets, today some of the sanity of the Good Olde Days of Merrie Olde England.
With a cultural history like this, I’m still surprised Europe ever let John
Bull join what eventually became the European Union.
Old Price Riots
The
Old Price Riots of 1809 (also sometimes referred to as the O.P.
or OP riots) were caused by rising prices at the new Theatre at Covent
Garden, London, after
the previous one had been destroyed by fire. Covent Garden was one of two
"patent" theatres in London in the nineteenth century, along with
Drury Lane. When Drury Lane was burned down, Covent Garden became the premiere
theatre in that time. The riots lasted three months, and ended with John
Philip Kemble, the manager of the theatre, being forced
to make a public apology. It was said that as many as 20 people died and many
more wounded during this event.[1]
On 20 September 1808, the original Covent Garden Theatre was destroyed by a fire along with most of the scenery, costumes and scripts. The damage was estimated at £250,000.[3] However, a public subscription was introduced by the Duke of York, King George III and the Duke of Northumberland, which contributed £76,000.[4] The new theatre opened on 18 September 1809. The cost of constructing and furnishing the building, however, was so high that the management was forced to raise the prices from six shillings to seven for the boxes, from 3 shillings and sixpence to four shillings for the pit, and the third tier, usually reserved for the public, was converted into private boxes at a rent of £300 per year. The gallery price was unchanged but often referred to as "pigeon holes" since people inside could only see the legs of the performers.[5]
On the opening night, riots broke out during a performance of Macbeth and continued throughout the play. At the end, the audience refused to leave so Kemble sent for the Bow Street police and other private militias,[6][7] but this only made the situation worse, and the rioters did not disperse until 2am.
After the first night, the rioters only came in at half price time, and the inside of the theatre was covered with banners and slogans. Newspapers and journals reported frequently on the riots, citing as central to its continuation a perceived suppression of customary liberties and a lack of dialogue between the patrons and the management.[8] At one point, a coffin was carried in with the message "Here lies the body of the new price, which died of the whooping cough on 23 September 1809, aged 6 days".
The riots were to last another 64 days. However, unlike earlier riots, little damage was done to the theatre and the whole affair was characterized by a "spirit of fun". [9] The rioters even had a name for themselves: the OPs. The OPs stretched across class and cultural lines, ranging from businessmen to labourers, and pushed Kemble to lower the prices.[10] Kemble did so (and also issued an apology) and the situation returned to normal, until he tried to maintain half the number of private boxes at the start of the next season – the riots started again, forcing him to withdraw his plan.
More
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Solar power projects worldwide slowed down by coronavirus
March 18, 2020
The central point has been China, the dominant manufacturing force in the solar power sector, as the coronavirus outbreak led to lockdowns across the country. Factories were hit in Wuhan, Sichuan and Zhejiang, Chief Executive of Clean Energy Associates Andy Klump has told BloombergNEF.
Its researchers revised the total demand outlook for photovoltaic installations this year to a range of 108 GW to 143 GW from between 121 GW and 152 GW. This would be the first annual decrease since the 1980s.
Production has apparently started recovering but the focus then only shifts to delivery issues and the demand side with the pandemic’s historic blow to Europe and other markets. Furthermore, the report adds, decision makers will likely turn their attention away from clean energy to other major concerns.
On the other hand, new wind power capacity is still looking to reach a record in 2020, the update reveals, but together with a warning of a downside risk to earlier targets.
The delays in supply raise the question of whether big producers of solar power systems would try and source subcomponents from other countries than China. Klump pointed to the potential of expansion in Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand, but also Cambodia to some extent.
In any case, customers will look to larger manufacturers and more stable supply chains, he estimated. The CEO still expressed optimism regarding long-term prospects for financing.
Corrine Lin, Chief Analyst at PV InfoLink from Taiwan, also sees orders for modules pushed back, but not to 2021. In her view, demand will be deferred to the second and third trimesters and China will still account for 42.5 GW or 30% of the world total.
Solar power plant development growth has slowed as factory openings aren’t meeting deadlines and there is a shortage of staff, Lin wrote and highlighted the glitches in transportation. She added junction boxes and aluminum frames are the hardest to find in module production. Prices may rise “in the short term,” the analyst said and asserted the levels would “decline steadily” when the outbreak is contained.
https://balkangreenenergynews.com/solar-power-projects-worldwide-slowed-down-by-coronavirus/
Another weekend and
time for some serious bean counters to start figuring out the global financial
damage. Have a great Spring/Autumn equinox weekend everyone.
Men
occasionally stumble over the truth, but most pick themselves up and hurry off
as if nothing had happened.
Sir
Winston Churchill.
The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished February
DJIA: 25,409 +75 Down. NASDAQ: 8,567 +171 Up.
SP500: 2,954 +133 Up.
In current circumstances,
this is no time to be blindly following technical signals. Given the
severity of the still growing coronavirus crisis, I wouldn’t follow technical
signals in what I think will turn into the first depression since the 1930s.
Barring a miracle recovery in all three markets, the monthly Coppock indicators
are heading for a reversal at the month-end.
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