American stock futures tumbled,
with the losses triggering exchange rules that limit declines at 5%, as
plummeting oil prices added to the backdrop of dread surrounding the
coronavirus.
The drop easily erased the rally that lifted cash equities
in the final hour of trading on Friday, as crude sank more than 20% in the
deepest rout since the U.S.-led war in Iraq in 1991. While energy and commodity
stocks only make up about 5% of the S&P 500, plunging crude prices
exacerbated the blow to sentiment and stood as one of the starker signals of
the outbreak’s economic toll. Volatility has been rampant in
markets around the world amid an outbreak that has infected 108,000 people and
killed more than 3,700. At least 10 billion shares have traded on U.S.
exchanges each day for two weeks, gauges of equity turbulence are at nine-year
highs and strategists have begun lowering earnings forecasts for the rest of
the year.Contracts on the S&P 500 sank as much as 5% from a
Chicago Mercantile Exchange reference price calculated during the final 30
minutes of trading Friday, preventing the rout from going beyond 2,819 on the
contracts. While futures can continue trading at or above that price, they were
pinned at that level as of 10:11 p.m. in New York, raising the specter that
losses would be deeper “It is too early to expect a market bottom,” Satya
Pradhuman, director of research at Cirrus Research, wrote in a note to clients.
“Credit spreads are likely to widen further from here. In addition, earnings
risks abound and estimates are still likely to fade further.” After an OPEC+ meeting in Vienna failed to reach an
agreement regarding further oil output cuts, Saudi Arabia said it plans to
boost oil output next month to more than 10 million barrels a day. Some strategists $30 a barrel, as as
deluge of supply combines with a shock to demand. While the energy sector is now the third smallest in the
S&P 500, a change from a decade ago when the industry made up 11% of the
benchmark, tumbling oil prices is yet another risk for traders to contemplate. “If WTI falls into the low $30 s and stays there, it’s going to cause lay-offs in
the oil patch and stresses in the high yield market -- like it did when oil
fell dramatically in 2015,” said Matt Maley, an equity strategist at Miller
Tabak & Co. Credit markets began to show signs of stress signals “Investors will not focus on global stimulus measures, a
potential ramp in production from China, the healthy U.S. consumer, aggressive
Fed easing, and relatively attractive U.S equities, until they have confidence
that the U.S. government and Fed will ‘do what it takes’ to lower tail risk,”
Dennis Debusschere, head of portfolio strategy at Evercore ISI, wrote in a note
to clients Sunday. “If that happens, the focus will turn to how the outbreak has
evolved in China and if the U.S. is on a similar path.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-08/correction-deepens-in-u-s-stock-futures-pointing-to-rough-open?srnd=premium-europe
Yen and euro soar as investors
stampede to safety amid coronavirus worries
March 8, 2020 /
11:32 PM
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The safe-haven yen soared, the euro
jumped after U.S. treasury yields dropped and export sensitive currencies fell
to multi-year lows on Monday as coronavirus fears routed global markets. The yen JPY= The euro EUR= AUD=D3 NZD=D3 Against the yen, the Aussie AUDJPY= and Kiwi NZDJPY= lost
more than 5%. “It is totally wild,” said Shafali Sachdev, head of FX Asia
at BNP Paribas Wealth Management in Singapore. “Stops are being triggered at
every level,” she said. “This is not a train I want to be getting in front of, and
how long it continues and where it goes from here is going to depend on how the
situation evolves,” she added, saying further stockmarket falls could drive
even bigger moves in funding currencies. The number of people infected with the coronavirus has
topped 107,000 across the world as the outbreak reached more countries and
caused more economic disruption. ---- The
yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries US10YT=RR went under 0.5% for the first time,
amid a rush for the safety of bonds.
That undermines the dollar by all but sinking one of the most popular
carry trades globally - borrowing at negative rates in euro or yen to buy U.S.
assets.
The yen’s jump drew concern in Japan, with a senior finance official
telling reporters that authorities were closely watching trade.
Meanwhile, the oil price fall made for withering drops in oil exporters’
currencies.
The Mexican peso MXN= CAD=D3 The Norwegian krone NOK=D3 RUB= https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-global-forex/dollar-and-commodity-currencies-trampled-by-oil-virus-double-shock-idUKKBN20V15K In
coronavirus news, the news is universally bad. The growing global crisis just
continues growing.
Confirmed Coronavirus may force
Americans to avoid crowds and cancel cruises; U.S. cases near 550
March 8, 2020
WASHINGTON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Older Americans, especially
those with chronic medical concerns, should probably avoid big social
gatherings and airline flights, given the rapid spread of coronavirus, a top
U.S. health official said on Sunday, as investors braced for another volatile
week in financial markets.
Anthony Fauci, the head of the infectious diseases unit at the National
Institutes of Health, also said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that after initial
missteps distributing diagnostic tests, there should be 400,000 more kits
available by Monday and 4 million by the end of the week.
The number of confirmed U.S. cases of coronavirus reached nearly 550 on
Sunday, including 22 deaths, according to state public health authorities and a
running national tally kept by the Johns Hopkins University center tracking the
outbreak.
More than half of the 50 U.S. states have reported infections, including
the first cases in Virginia, Connecticut and Iowa, as well as the U.S. island
territory of Puerto Rico, documented on Sunday.
Warnings from Fauci and others about the need for greater “social
distancing” - the practice of minimizing unnecessary contact in public settings
- came amid the disclosure of a high-profile example of the risks now inherent
in large gatherings.
U.S. Senator Ted Cruz said on Sunday he would self-quarantine after
coming in contact at last month’s annual Conservative Political Action
Conference with an attendee who had since tested positive for coronavirus.
---- As the outbreak spreads, daily life has been increasingly
disrupted, with concerts and conferences canceled and universities telling
students to stay home and take classes online. ---- Germany, which has nearly 1,000 cases, on Sunday urged
the cancellation of all events with more than 1,000 people. ---- In financial markets, talk about recessions and bear
markets was growing as investors try to assess how badly the outbreak will
damage global growth. Many strategists have turned more pessimistic in recent
days and are anticipating further market drops and a possible end to the
longest economic expansion in U.S. history. More https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/confirmed-coronavirus-may-force-americans-to-avoid-crowds-and-cancel-cruises-u-s-cases-near-550-idUKKBN20V0MK
Italy has highest COVID-19
fatalities after China as death toll triples
09 Mar 2020
08:20AM (Updated:
09 Mar 2020 10:26AM)
ROME: Italy's death toll from the novel coronavirus soared on
Sunday (Mar 8), overtaking South Korea as the country with the highest number
of fatalities after China.
The death count in Italy nearly tripled from 133 to 366, and infections
rose by a single-day record of 1,492 to hit 7,375.
The outbreak has now killed around 3,800 people and
infected more than 109,000 in 99 countries and territories. A quarter of Italy's population is in lockdown. The
measures, in place until Apr 3, bar people from entering or leaving vast
areas of the north, according to a decree published online. Sunday saw Rome forced to close its blockbuster exhibition
marking 500 years since the death of Renaissance master Raphael.
The head of the southern Puglia region pleaded with anyone thinking of
travelling there from areas in lockdown to "stop and turn around ... Don't
bring the epidemic to Puglia".
The lockdown, however, does allow for the return home of those who were
in the affected areas but live elsewhere, including tourists.
Football matches also took place behind closed doors - Italian
Footballers' Association president Damiano Tommasi tweeted that "stopping
football is the most useful thing for our country right now" as "the
teams to cheer are playing in our hospitals, in emergency rooms".
Germany, with around 850 declared cases to date, on Sunday banned
gatherings of more than 1,000 people, as did France, where 19 have now died.
Greece indicated it would follow the closed-door approach to sporting events.
Neighbours Austria and Switzerland said they were monitoring the
situation closely with both announcing the suspension of some transport links
- though borders remain open.
Italy's quarantine zones are home to more than 15 million people and
include the regions around Venice and financial capital Milan.
A further ramification of the virus saw inmates revolt at four Italian
prisons over new rules introduced to contain the outbreak, including a ban on
family visits, prison officers union Osapp said.
---- Iran
earlier reported 49 new deaths, its highest toll for a single 24-hour period,
taking the number of fatalities there to 194, one of the highest tolls outside
of China. The virus has spread to all of Iran's 31 provinces with 6,566
confirmed cases.
---- Iran Air announced the suspension of all its
flights to Europe until further notice.
Egypt reported a first confirmed death - also Africa's first
- with the health ministry saying a German citizen had died in a tourist
resort.
In the US, the contagion has spread to 30 states, killing at least
21 people.
More https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/italy-covid-19-coronavirus-deaths-cases-highest-china-korea-12517000
Amtrak cancels Acela train
service between NYC, Washington due to coronavirus
Published: March 7, 2020 at 2:19 p.m. ET
Amtrak is suspending Acela nonstop train service between New York and
Washington through late May because of falling demand due to the coronavirus
outbreak.
The high-speed trains are popular with business people, but many
employers have stopped travel because of the disease.
“Starting Tuesday, March 10, Acela Nonstop service is suspended until
Tuesday, May 26,” Amtrak posted on its website.
The trains suspended, according to the statement: Trains 201, 2402 and
2403.
Amtrak also has waived change fees on reservations made through April
20. Customers can change their reservations on Amtrak.com.
The announcement came as Florida reported the first East Coast deaths
from the disease.
Amtrak said it has increased the frequency of cleaning both trains and
stations to several times a day — in some cases, hourly — including
disinfecting handrails, doorknobs, handles and surfaces.
Spectators barred from Bahrain F1
Grand Prix due to coronavirus
March 8, 2020 /
8:20 AM
DUBAI (Reuters) - The Bahrain Formula One Grand Prix will go ahead this
month without spectators due to the coronavirus crisis, a blow to the Gulf’s
Arab states important tourism sector.
Bahrain, which is hosting the second round of the Formula One season on
March 22, has reported 83 cases of the virus, mostly linked to people who had
travelled to Iran.
“Convening a major sporting event, which is open to the public and
allows thousands of international travellers and local fans to interact in
close proximity would not be the right thing to do at the present time,”
organisers the Bahrain International Circuit said.
“To ensure that neither the sport, nor its global supporter base, is
unduly impacted, the race weekend itself will still go ahead as a televised
event.”
Concerts featuring DJ’s Afrojack and Don Diablo over the race weekend
have been cancelled.
Bahrain has suspended flights to some destinations over concerns of the
rapidly spreading virus.
It has also asked people entering the country who have recently visited
Italy, South Korea, Egypt and Lebanon to isolate themselves for two weeks.
Organisers had earlier suspended ticket sales as they assessed how many
spectators would be allowed to attend the race.
The Grand Prix, Bahrain’s biggest global sporting event, reported a
record three-day crowd of 97,000 in 2019, with 34,000 on the Sunday.
Tourism is an important contributor to Bahrain’s economy, which in
recent years has been in deficit and sought bailouts from its wealthier Gulf
Arab neighbours.
Concerns over rapid spread of the coronavirus, which has killed 145
people and infected 5,823 others in Iran, has led to a raft of major events
including concerts being cancelled in the Gulf region.
The Bahrain Grand Prix is one of two Formula One races held in the Gulf,
with Abu Dhabi hosting the closing race in November.
The opening race of the season, the Australian Grand Prix in Melbourne,
is scheduled to be held on March 15.
Finally,
do Covid-19 cured patients relapse or get re-infected? Whichever it is might
make a big difference to the final outcome.
Experts unsure if 'cured'
COVID-19 patients are reinfected or relapsed
March 6, 2020 /
5:59 PM
March 6 (UPI) -- Although the number of new cases of coronavirus continues to climb,
well over half of those diagnosed with the disease have been declared fully
recovered, according to data from the World Health Organization. However, reports suggest a new subset of patients affected
by the disease, known as COVID-19 , may be emerging: A handful of the 60,000 or so
people declared cured after treatment have been readmitted to hospitals days or
weeks later because their symptoms have returned. So far, most of these cases of reinfection have been in
China, where the outbreak started, and research documenting these cases -- and
confirming that they are, in fact, instances of reinfection -- remains lacking,
experts say. "I do not know of any cases at present where I would
be definitively convinced that a person had fully recovered from the disease
and had been reinfected as opposed to relapsed," William Hanage, assistant
professor of epidemiology at the T.H. Chan School of Public Health at Harvard
University, told UPI. "A lot of people are concerned about it, but I don't
think we have any good evidence for it." There is a distinction between relapse -- where a patient
could be temporarily asymptomatic, only to have the flu-like symptoms of
COVID-19 return -- and reinfection. For reinfection, a person would be ruled
cured of the virus, and then catch it again, likely from another source, or
perhaps with a different strain. WHO guidance on COVID-19, which has continuously evolved as
researchers learn more the disease, suggests it can be considered cured if a
patient has no detectable levels of the virus on two consecutive polymerase
chain reaction assay tests of swabs taken from their larynx or nasal passages. Although most currently available tests for COVID-19 are
based on PCR assays -- including one developed and distributed by U.S. health
agencies and private manufacturers -- there are "subtle differences"
between the approaches being used in different countries, Hanage said, which
may be causing some of the confusion surrounding reinfection. He cited the case of an Israeli passenger on the Diamond
Princess cruise ship who was diagnosed with COVID-19 and treated in Japan as
one example. Following treatment, and two successive negative PCR tests for the
virus, he was declared cured and cleared to return to Israel. When he arrived home, he was screened for the disease
again, and the results came back positive. "It wasn't that he was reinfected on the plane back to
Israel," Hanage said. "This happened because of the slightly
different way physicians in Japan administer these tests, compared to how it's
done in Israel." ---- According to Justin Lessler, an associate professor at
the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health,
reinfection is possible with other coronaviruses -- and may be with COVID-19. "Nothing is known specifically for COVID-19," he
said, adding, that "it is unlikely reinfection could occur so rapidly that
we would see it in the current epidemic wave."
More
There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history
counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent
that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those
who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the
present.
John
Kenneth Galbraith
Crooks and
Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
The coronavirus drag, the view from Germany.
“We’ve Written
Off the First Half of the Year’
Coronavirus
Attacks Core of the Economy
Politicians and bankers are looking for
ways to limit the damage that coronavirus is doing to the German economy. But
with uncertainty so high, it is currently unclear how much relief stimulus or
any other measure can deliver.
06.03.2020,
18:07 Uhr
The
Liedl carpentry workshop in the town of Pfarrkirchen, in southeastern Bavaria,
is a family business founded in 1914. Stefan Liedl is the fourth generation of
the family to head the company, but he and his father, Franz Liedl, have never
experienced a situation quite like this.
Each year, Liedl presents two room arrangements at the International
Handwerk Messe, a trade fair for construction, renovation and refurbishment
products in Munich that the company attends in order to attract potential
customers. But this year, the fair got cancelled at short notice because of the
coronavirus. "We’re shocked,” says Franz Liedl. The company fortunately
still has a buffer of contracts to keep things going for few months. But what
happens after that? The carpenter doesn’t know. "We’re a bit concerned,”
he says.
Although the number of people with the virus in Germany is comparatively
small, it has already managed to infect the economy, even in tranquil
Pfarrkirchen.
It’s affecting not only companies that export products to or
import key parts from China, but also service providers, distributors and
craftspeople. The more rigidly Germany attempts to prevent the virus’ spread,
the more severe the collateral damage to the local economy will be. Hotels and
restaurants are losing revenues and travel companies and airlines are suffering
as the result of trade fair and business trip cancellations.
Only the Beginning
And this is only the start. As soon as the warehouses are
empty, the companies that depend on products from China will need to limit or
even stop production. If the virus spreads even further, entire workforces
might end up having to stay home, and consumers will consume less, because they
will feel safest in their homes or apartments. If the situation deteriorates severely, many companies will
run out of cash and will have to file for bankruptcy. Unemployment will also
rise. Meanwhile, banks could run into serious problems. At the moment, no one wants to speculate on whether that
extreme situation will unfold. It all depends on how long it takes for the
virus to be brought under control. As a result, no economist can predict how
deep the crash will be and whether the economy will quickly rebound, with a
v-shaped recovery, or whether it will be a slower, u-shaped one or a far-slower
l-shaped one. ---- But
what options do governments and central bankers actually have for mitigating
the economic side-effects of the coronavirus?
Calls for government intervention are growing louder in the business
world. Michael Frenzel, president of the Federal Association of the German
Tourism Industry, argued this week that his sector -- which employs over 3
million people and includes several hundreds of thousands of primarily small-
to midsized companies -- must "necessarily” be "part of a federal
government stimulus package.”
German national airline Lufthansa has drastically cut its flight
schedule and has grounded 150 planes, or 20 percent of its fleet. But if
Lufthansa is no longer regularly using its slots at highly trafficked airports,
it could wind up losing its takeoff and landing rights.
---- On
Friday, the company made the even more dramatic announcement that it would
reduce as many as 50 percent of its flights in the coming weeks to offset the
lack of demand.
---- Economics Minister Peter Altmaier has worked
out a three-step plan to be implemented if the situation worsens. In the first
step, companies who run into financial problems are to be supported by credit
guarantees or loans from the state-owned KfW development bank.
These funds can be increased, if necessary, in step two. Financial
authorities could also delay tax payments from businesses in order to preempt
any liquidity problems for companies. Only step three would involve taking
measures to boost demand.
There is enough money available for a classic economic stimulus package.
Germany has 50 billion euros of reserves that were earmarked to help overcome
the refugee crisis but haven't been spent. Because German and EU debt rules
allow for higher borrowing during times of crisis, they wouldn't be an obstacle
to additional spending.
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates
as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
A talented 2D material gets a new
gig
Date:
March 4, 2020
Source:
DOE/Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Summary:
Scientists have designed a tunable graphene device for experiments in exotic
physics, where superconducting, insulating, and magnetic properties can be
observed in a single system. The technology could advance the development of
next-generation memory devices and quantum computers.
Ever since graphene's discovery in 2004, scientists have looked for ways
to put this talented, atomically thin 2D material to work. Thinner than a
single strand of DNA yet 200 times stronger than steel, graphene is an excellent
conductor of electricity and heat, and it can conform to any number of shapes,
from an ultrathin 2D sheet, to an electronic circuit.
Last year, a team of researchers led by Feng Wang, a faculty scientist
in Berkeley Lab's Materials Sciences Division and a professor of physics at UC
Berkeley, developed a multitasking graphene device that switches from a
superconductor that efficiently conducts electricity, to an insulator that
resists the flow of electric current, and back again to a superconductor.
Now, as reported today in the journal Nature , the researchers
have tapped into their graphene system's talent for juggling not just two
properties, but three: superconducting, insulating, and a type of magnetism
called ferromagnetism. The multitasking device could make possible new physics
experiments, such as research in the pursuit of an electric circuit for faster,
next-generation electronics like quantum computing technologies.
"So far, materials simultaneously showing superconducting,
insulating, and magnetic properties have been very rare. And most people
believed that it would be difficult to induce magnetism in graphene, because
it's typically not magnetic. Our graphene system is the first to combine all
three properties in a single sample," said Guorui Chen, a postdoctoral
researcher in Wang's Ultrafast Nano-Optics Group at UC Berkeley, and the
study's lead author.
Using electricity to turn on graphene's hidden potential
Graphene has a lot of potential in the world of electronics. Its
atomically thin structure, combined with its robust electronic and thermal
conductivity, "could offer a unique advantage in the development of
next-generation electronics and memory storage devices," said Chen, who
also worked as a postdoctoral researcher in Berkeley Lab's Materials Sciences
Division at the time of the study.
More
In central banking as in diplomacy, style, conservative
tailoring, and an easy association with the affluent count greatly and results
far much less.
John Kenneth
Galbraith
The monthly Coppock Indicators
finished February
DJIA: 25,409 +75 Down. NASDAQ: 8,567 +171 Up.
SP500: 2,954 +133 Up.
In current circumstances,
this is no time to be blindly following technical signals.
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