Baltic Dry Index. 556 -26 Brent Crude 24.93 Spot
Gold 1628
Covid-19 cases 14/3/20 World 146,627 Deaths 5,461 (Maybe.)
Covid-19 cases 21/3/20 World 276,462 Deaths 11,417 (Maybe.)
Effectively what the arb boils down to
is taking advantage of the maximum price, or rather minimum yield limit of
Bills sold to the public (but mostly to Wall Street traders) and the unlimited
yields these Bills can trade in the open market.
Take the following example picked by
Boomberg: on Thursday, the Treasury sold $60 billion of four-week
bills at the minimum allowed rate of 0% (at a price of par, or 100 cents on the
dollar).
But because the current yield on this
security is roughly -0.14%, dealers can turn around and sell those bills at a
premium to par, and pocket an immediate windfall of about $7 million. While
that might not sound like much, with over $2.5 trillion of bills outstanding,
and rolling every single month, it could add up very quickly, amounting to over $100 million every month in
risk-free handouts directly from Uncle Sam if the yield on the short-end
remains negative!
As U.S. virus cases exceed 100,000, doctors decry scarcity of drugs and equipment
by Reuters Saturday, 28 March 2020 02:00
GMT
NEW YORK,
March 27 (Reuters) - Doctors and nurses on the front lines of the U.S.
coronavirus crisis pleaded on Friday for more protective gear and equipment to
treat waves of patients expected to overwhelm hospitals as the sum of known
U.S. infections climbed well past 100,000, with more than 1,600 dead.
Physicians
have called particular attention to a desperate need for additional
ventilators, machines that help patients breathe and are widely needed for
those suffering from COVID-19, the respiratory ailment caused by the highly
contagious novel coronavirus.
Hospitals in
New York City, New Orleans, Detroit and other virus hot spots have also sounded
the alarm about scarcities of drugs, medical supplies and trained staff while
the number of confirmed
U.S. cases rose by about 18,000 on Friday, the highest
jump in a single day, to more than 103,000.
That tally
kept the United States as the world leader in the number of known infections,
having surpassed China and Italy on Thursday.
"We are
scared," said Dr. Arabia Mollette of Brookdale University Hospital and
Medical Center in Brooklyn. "We're trying to fight for everyone else's
life, but we also fight for our lives as well, because we're also at the
highest risk of exposure."
The United
States ranked sixth in death toll among the hardest hit countries, with at
least 1,632 lives lost as of Friday night, a record daily increase of 370 according
to a Reuters tabulation of official data. Worldwide, confirmed cases rose above
593,000 with 27,198 deaths, the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
reported.
Even as
hospital patient numbers steadily climbed, shortages of key medical supplies
abounded.
More
De Blasio says New Yorkers should be 'ready' for the city to stay closed until the end of MAY and predicts 'more than half' of the 8.6million population will become infected with coronavirus - as cases rise to 25,398
·
De Blasio appeared on Good Morning
America on Friday to gave an update on the virus impact in New York City
·
He said people should be 'ready' for New
York to stay closed throughout May
·
The mayor predicts that half of the
city's 8.6m population will become infected
·
He says that the help needs to keep
coming from Trump and the federal government
·
New York City has more than 23,000 cases
of the virus and 365 people have died
·
In 24 hours between Wednesday and
Thursday, 177 people died in its hospitals
·
The peak of the virus has not yet come;
there is now a race against time to make sure hospitals have enough ventilators
before it arrives
·
His prediction came as research from the
University of Washington School of Medicine suggested as many as 81,000 would
be killed by the virus in the US and that the pandemic will not be over until
June
·
Coronavirus
symptoms: what are they and should you see a doctor?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8159805/De-Blasio-says-people-need-prepared-New-York-staying-closed-end-MAY.htmlItaly has not reached coronavirus contagion peak - national health chief
March 27, 2020 / 12:17 PM
ROME
(Reuters) - Coronavirus infections in Italy have not reached their peak, the
head of the country’s national health institute said on Friday, the day after
more than 6,150 people tested positive and 712 died in single 24-hour period.
“We haven’t
reached the peak and we haven’t passed it,” the chief of the Superior Health
Institute Silvio Brusaferro told a news conference.
However,
Brusaferro said there were “signs of a slowdown” in the numbers of people
becoming infected, suggesting the peak may not be far away, after which new
cases will show a visible downward trend.
“When the
descent begins, how steep it is will depend on our behaviour,” Brusaferro said,
referring to how strictly Italians will continue to respect restrictions on
movement imposed by a government lockdown.
Mortgage industry seeks billions in federal help as homeowners stop paying their loans
If millions of homeowners take advantage of programs allowing them to delay paying their mortgage for months, the industry says it will face a cash crunch
March 27, 2020 at 12:15 p.m. EDT
Many of the country’s largest
mortgage lenders are warning they will be soon pushed to the brink of failure
with millions of Americans laid off due to the coronavirus
outbreak likely to miss their next loan payment, threatening to disrupt the
housing market in a way not seen since the Great Recession.
Morehttps://www.washingtonpost.com/
Opinion: China’s economy will suffer a double whammy as its export partners are overrun by the coronavirus
In China,
the economic fallout of the COVID-19 outbreak will drag on 2020 gross domestic
product (GDP) growth as the country endures the twin hits of the early-year
domestic slowdown and the as-yet-unknown drop in overseas demand in key
markets.
But the country’s
high debt levels — partly fueled by its massive stimulus during the 2008
financial crisis, in addition to the structural slowdown already underway
before the outbreak — means Beijing will hesitate to mirror the large-scale
spending being implemented in other virus-ravaged economies, such as the U.S.,
Japan and South Korea. China will now have to choose whether to help buoy its
employment and annual growth targets through spending that could jeopardize
long-term economic stability.
The COVID-19 outbreak originating in China saw the country’s economy locked down for the better part of two months — a massive blow to export-oriented industries, as well as consumer and travel spending during a key annual holiday period. China’s combined January-February economic data released in mid-March showed a worse-than-expected hit to the economy due to the virus, with value-added industrial production down 13.5%, fixed asset investment down 24.5% and retail sales down 20.5%.
Those months also saw at least 5 million workers lose their jobs, bringing the official unemployment rate to 6.2% — the highest on record and not even counting the massive pool of migrant workers inside the country that were idle during the same period but not counted in official unemployment numbers.
Even before COVID-19’s unexpected emergence, China had been in the throes of a structural slowdown in its economic growth. Over the past decade, China’s GDP growth, according to government figures, has gradually moderated from above 10% in 2010, to below 8% in 2015 before hitting 6.6% in 2018 and softening further to 6.1% in 2019 — the slowest in three decades.
There is a
broad consensus that the first quarter of the year will bring a contraction in
GDP with COVID-19 factored in. And for the full year of 2020, economists across
the board have revised their growth projections downward. Goldman Sachs dropped
its initial 5.5% forecast to 3%, S&P lowered it from 4.8% to 2.9% and
Nomura from 4.8% to 1.3%. High-level Chinese government leaks suggest that even
the official projections may be revised downward from the current 6% for 2020
to 5%.
Dubai braces for financial hit as coronavirus batters vital tourism
March 27, 2020 / 12:13 PM
DUBAI (Reuters) - The sundecks on Dubai’s
beaches lie empty, and red flags warn visitors away from the waterfront to
protect the Middle East’s tourism hub against coronavirus.
The
infection is starting to deliver a painful blow to Dubai, one of the most
visited cities globally, with some hotels closed and occupancy rates falling to
less than 10% in others.
Hotels are
working to protect remaining staff and guests, taking their temperature and
giving them hand sanitiser. Restaurants have been reconfigured to space out
dining tables.
But hotel
workers worry this slowdown is only the start of something more damaging, and
while authorities have said beaches and pools will be closed for just two
weeks, officials have indicated those restrictions could be renewed.
The outbreak
has also revived concerns about the emirate’s over-leveraged state coffers.
Analysts and financial industry sources say it could force the state to seek a
bailout similar to the one extended by oil-rich Abu Dhabi after a 2009
financial crisis.
“We expect
difficult times to last for months, probably the whole of 2020,” a manager at
one of Dubai’s most renowned hotels told Reuters on condition his establishment
not be identified.
He was
checking on a British family of three seated poolside, among the handful of
guests still remaining at the 500-room establishment.
The hotel
put 300 employees on unpaid leave and shut its pool bar and beach club, after
the pandemic hit global travel and led the United Arab Emirates to close most
public venues.
The hotel,
which has reduced staffing to 20%, is among hundreds of similar establishments
facing similar strains in Dubai, where tourism accounts for more than 11% of
GDP and supports the retail, transport and construction sectors.
The World
Travel & Tourism Council said Dubai was the third largest city in the world
in attracting direct international tourism spending, with $28 billion in 2019.
More than 16 million tourists visited the city last year, the government said.
State-owned
Emirates airline, which posted 862 million dirhams ($234.70 million) in profits
in the first half of 2019, halted passenger flights even before the UAE
suspended all passenger flights, except evacuations trips, late on Tuesday.
More
Opinion: This isn’t your ordinary recession — the U.S. is now experiencing a economic meltdown more typical of a Third World natural disaster
Published: March 27, 2020 at 10:06 a.m.
ET
LAGUNA BEACH, Calif. (Project Syndicate) — With the coronavirus devastating one economy after another, the economics profession — and thus the analytical underpinnings for sound policy making and crisis management — is having to play catch-up.
Of particular concern now are the economics of viral contagion, of fear, and of “circuit breakers.” The more that economic thinking advances to meet changing realities, the better will be the analysis that informs the policy response.
That response is set to be both novel and inevitably costly. Governments and central banks are pursuing unprecedented measures to mitigate the global downturn, lest a now-certain global recession gives way to a depression (already an uncomfortably high risk).
As they do, we will likely see a further erosion of the distinction between mainstream economics in advanced economies and in developing economies. Such a change is sorely needed.
With overwhelming evidence of massive declines in consumption and production across countries, analysts in advanced economies must reckon, first and foremost, with a phenomenon that was hitherto familiar only to fragile/failed states and communities devastated by natural disasters: an economic sudden stop, together with the cascade of devastation that can follow from it. They will then face other challenges that are more familiar to developing countries.
Consider the nature of the pandemic economy. Regardless of their desire to spend, consumers are unable to do so, because they have been urged or ordered to stay home. And regardless of their willingness to sell, stores cannot reach their customers, and many are cut off from their suppliers.
The immediate priority, of course, is the public-health response, which calls for social distancing, self-isolation, and other measures that are fundamentally inconsistent with how modern economies are wired. As a result, there has been a rapid contraction of economic activity (and therefore economic wellbeing).
As for the severity and duration of the coming recession, all will depend on the success of the health-policy response, particularly on efforts to identify and contain the spread of the virus, treat the ill, and enhance immunity. While waiting for progress on these three fronts, fear and uncertainty will deepen, with adverse implications for financial stability and prospects for economic recovery.
More
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-isnt-your-ordinary-recession-the-us-is-now-experiencing-a-economic-meltdown-more-typical-of-a-third-world-natural-disaster-2020-03-26?mod=mw_latestnews
James Grant | “Nobody Knows Anything”
INTERVIEW
TRANSCRIPT (EDITED)
Albert Lu: It’s another day of volatility for
investors, as hope for a government stimulus package pushes the Dow Jones
Industrial Average back above the 20,000 point mark. But how long will [it]
last?
Joining me
now is the editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer and the author of
several books, including The Forgotten Depression: 1921: The Crash That
Cured Itself.
----AL: Jim, how different is the Bank of
England’s approach to lending against physical goods to what, apparently, the
Fed is going to do with a mainstream lending program or the relaunched Term
Asset-Backed Loan Facility where they’re going to try to get money and credit
into the hands of merchants? Isn’t that essentially the same thing, maybe
with some …
JG: Well, no, but it’s never [the
same], of course, one cycle to the next. One episode of financial improvisation
to the next, it’s never exactly the same thing. I don’t mean to be pedantic;
you didn’t mean it was exactly the same thing. Certainly the spirit of
innovation is comparable, one cycle two hundred [years] ago compared to this
one. You know, another point of comparison is the Bank of England then was, in
part, a commercial bank; it was doing its own commercial discounting of trade
bills and the like. It was lending and taking deposits.
So the Fed,
with these interventions, has become, or is becoming, a kind of commercial
bank, right? It’s undertaking direct credit infusion into the economy rather
than through intermediaries. It is also acting with unimagined hundreds of
billions of dollars to buy more or less everything that’s not nailed down:
commercial mortgage-backed securities, residential mortgage-backed securities,
[backstopping] commercial paper money market funds, Treasury securities
themselves, ETFs, [housing] investment grade bonds. It takes a while to get
used to it all, but it is a fact.
----AL: I’m calling from California.
JG: Okay, that’s a different country
too, you know, in some of the ways. But Bernie Sanders is evidently no longer
even a low possibility for the Democratic nomination of presidency, but his
ideas seem to be winning today, certainly his ideas in finance. Among those
ideas of course is so-called Modern Monetary Theory, which is that body [of]
thought which holds that the government will do no lasting harm if it monetizes
deficits directly — if the central bank prints lots of money — as long as those
obligations are not owed except internally, and if there is no inflation at the
checkout counter. That’s the basic bare-bones proposition of Modern Monetary
Theory which Bernie Sanders endorses and would implement.
But what are
we doing if not that? We were doing that really in effect before. The
Administration’s program was to borrow and spend, without let or hindrance,
with no thought at all to orthodoxy and conventional Republican fiscal practice
and mores. The other term for Modern Monetary Theory is functional finance. If
it works, that’s great. No remote consequences of these improvised actions. So
that program was in progress, in fact if not [in] name, and with the Fed’s
actions this week, my goodness, it almost seems as if it were here. All we need
is another press release called Modern Monetary Theory, right?
I’m fully
aware that the provocation is that of, seemingly, an act of God or at least a
viral mutation or something so we ought not to begrudge the Fed its humane
impulses. But how do you not mobilize every single possible tool in your kit or
bomb in your arsenal next time there’s a downturn in anything? I think this
introduces the possibility of everything that gold bugs have been praying for.
Are we going to talk about gold? I can’t wait.
Morehttps://www.sprottmedia.com/james-grant-nobody-knows-anything/?utm_source=3.+Sprott%27s+Thoughts+Newsletter&utm_campaign=891f62f3cc-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_e797de09c2-891f62f3cc-211633505
Finally, it’s not all bad news for some
hedge fund gamblers. But what service to mankind are the rent seeking, cronies
of the central banksters, hedge fund gamblers performing?
How a Hedge Funder Scored a 10,000% Return Amid Coronavirus Market Meltdown
By Sissi Cao • 03/26/20
12:04pm
In the past few weeks, the coronavirus-triggered market meltdown has cost America’s top one percent dearly. Per Bloomberg‘s count, the world’s 500 richest people lost a combined $1.3 trillion since the beginning of 2020, after recent stock selloffs obliterated all of earlier months’ gains. But one smart anomaly, hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman, manages to profit handsomely in a time when everyone is losing money.
At the beginning of March, Ackman revealed that his investment firm, Pershing Square Capital Management, had bought $27 million worth of credit protection on global investment-grade and high-yield credit indexes in late February to limit portfolio loss amid coronavirus-spurred market volatility.
The timing of those investments couldn’t
have been better. Major stock indexes began their free fall on March 6 and hit
the rocket bottom on Monday. The same day, Ackman finished unwinding those hedges
and reaped $2.6 billion in proceeds.
“The proceeds of the hedges have enabled
us to become a substantially larger shareholder of a number of our portfolio
companies, and to add some new investments, all at deeply discounted prices,”
Ackman wrote in a letter to shareholders
on Wednesday. Pershing Square’s major stakes include Agilent Technologies,
Berkshire Hathaway, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, Lowe’s and Restaurant Brands
International.
More
Reserve Requirements
As announced on March 15, 2020, the Board reduced reserve requirement ratios to zero percent effective March 26, 2020. This action eliminated reserve requirements for all depository institutions.The following content explains the Board’s authority to impose reserve requirements and how reserve requirements were administered prior to the change in reserve requirement ratios to zero.
The Federal Reserve Act authorizes the Board to establish reserve requirements within specified ranges for purposes of implementing monetary policy on certain types of deposits and other liabilities of depository institutions.
More
Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet Tops $5 Trillion for First Time
Matthew Boesler Bloomberg
Bloomberg)
-- The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet topped $5 trillion for the first time
amid the U.S. central bank’s aggressive efforts to cushion debt markets against
the coronavirus outbreak through large-scale bond-buying programs.
The central
bank has rolled out several liquidity programs over the last few weeks to keep
credit flowing in financial markets and the economy amid investor panic over
the global spread of the virus. The scale of its current bond-buying efforts
already dwarfs that of the purchase programs it undertook in the wake of the
last financial crisis.
The Fed is
also expected to establish a Main Street Business Lending Program to provide
help to smaller firms.
Borrowing
under its Primary Dealer Credit Facility was $27.7 billion as of Wednesday,
with the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility standing at $30.6 billion.
Borrowing by foreign central banks soared to $206 billion -- the highest since
2009 -- following the Fed’s March 19 announcement that it would expand dollar
swap lines to a larger group of nations.
“By this means (fractional reserve
banking) government may secretly and unobserved, confiscate the wealth of the
people, and not one man in a million will detect the theft.”
John Maynard Keynes, The Economic
Consequences of the Peace (1920)
So what is the cost of free money? Stick around a year
or two as we all find out!
This weekend’s musical diversion. Boccherini sets the Covid-19 pandemic to music,
and he’d never heard of viruses, let alone Covid-19.
Luigi Boccherini / Luciano Berio: Ritirata notturna di Madrid (1975)
And while equity investors may be
confident that in the long run, hyperinflation results in positive real returns
if one sticks with stocks, the Weimar case showed that that is not the case.
But that is a topic for another day. For now we will focus on bond traders, who
are finding the current money tsunami unlike anything they have seen before.
Indeed, while past quantitative easing
programs have led to similar concerns, this emergency response is different
because it’s playing out in weeks rather than months and limits on QE
bond purchases have quickly been scrapped.
Any hope that the Fed will ease back on
the Brrring printer was dashed when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said
Thursday the central bank will maintain its efforts "aggressively and
forthrightly" saying in an interview on NBC’s “Today” show that
the Fed will not "run out of ammunition" after promising unlimited
bond purchases. His comments came hours after the European Central
Bank scrapped most of the bond-buying limits in its own program.
More
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished February
DJIA: 25,409
-75 Down. NASDAQ: 8,567 +171 Up. SP500: 2,954 +133 Up.
A mixed bag. But given the severity of the still growing coronavirus
crisis, I wouldn’t follow technical signals in what I think will turn into the
first depression since the 1930s. Barring a miracle recovery in all three
markets, the monthly Coppock indicators are heading for a reversal.
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