Baltic Dry Index. 617 +18 Brent Crude 45.27 Spot
Gold 1674
Covid-19 Cases 08/2/20
China 35,010 Deaths 726 (Maybe.)
Covid-19 Cases 29/2/20 China
85,206 Deaths
2,923 (Maybe.)
Covid-19 Cases 08/3/20 World 107,490 Deaths
3,652 (Maybe.)
The number of coronavirus cases in
Italy, Europe’s worst-hit country, reached 5883 on Saturday, the civil
protection agency said, the biggest daily rise since the epidemic began just
over two weeks ago.
Deaths due to the highly infectious
virus were up 36 to 233, the head of the agency, Angelo Borrelli, told a news
conference.
The disease was first confirmed in Italy
15 days ago and remains mainly centred on northern regions, especially
Lombardy, but cases have now been confirmed in each of the country’s 20
regions, with deaths recorded in eight of them.
--- In the worst affected areas, Italy’s hospitals are under growing strain. The number of patients in intensive care rose to 567, up 23% from the day before.
Today, how long before we’re all Italy?
My guess is that for GB, Germany, France, Spain and Holland, between 4 to 7
weeks, the USA lagging behind but fast catching up, about 6 to 9 weeks.
Using Italy as typical of this Covid-19
disease, and using their published figures as reliable, we have/are witnessing an
exponential modern epidemic in a modern western economy with a well developed
health care system.
It all comes down to the assumptions we make, but the following seems reasonable to me.
Europe and the USA were no more nor less prepared than Italy for the onset of Sars-CoV-2. Europe and the USA will experience a similar level of infectivity to Italy.
The WHO case death rate of about 3.4 percent will apply, meaning that many cases will be serious enough to require hospitalisation.
Like Italy, there was minimal hospital or health care system preparedness.
Like Italy, we have all been too slow to recognise the seriousness of the developing epidemic, and are only now coming to terms with the prospect that there are many undiagnosed cases already in the general population.
Despite most only going on to develop a mild survivable illness, a large percentage, possibly approaching 20 percent will require hospitalisation, which will put a severe strain on hospitals and health care workers.
Finally, given Covid-19s exponential spread in Italy, how often do cases double? I have no way of knowing that, but looking at Italy and Iran, I would guess every 3 to 10 days.
If it’s every 3 days, we probably end up with our health care systems swamped. If it’s every 10 days we probably can handle it but only by taking measures similar to Italy but less draconian than China’s measures.
If we are all destined to follow Italy, I see no way for Europe and the USA to avoid recession. The only question is timing.
Coronavirus: Northern Italy quarantines 16 million people
·
2 hours ago
The dramatic escalation in the country's efforts to contain the new coronavirus will close gyms, pools, museums and ski resorts.
Weddings and funerals are also suspended under the new measures.
Italy is Europe's worst-hit country and reported a steep rise in virus infections on Saturday.
The new measures, which also apply to financial centre Milan and tourist hotspot Venice will last until 3 April.
The death toll in Italy has passed 230, with officials reporting more than 50 deaths in 24 hours. The number of confirmed cases jumped by more than 1,200 to 5,883 on Saturday.
----People have been told to stay home as much as possible, and those who break the quarantine could face three months in jail.
---- The World Health Organization has advised Italy to strongly focus on virus containment measures as infections spread in the country.
The plans echo China's forced quarantine of millions of people which the WHO has praised for halting the spread of the virus.
Leading Italian politician Nicola Zingaretti said on Saturday he had tested positive for the virus.
"I am fine but I will have to stay home for the next few days," the leader of Italy's centre-left Democratic Party (PD) said in a Facebook post.
The country has said it will start recruiting retired doctors in an effort to combat the escalating outbreak.
More
Italy Imposes Lockdown on 16 Million People to Combat Virus
By Alberto Brambilla, John Follain, and Alessandro Speciale
March 7, 2020, 7:41 PM GMT Updated on March 8, 2020, 2:59 AM GMT
·
·
Prime Minister takes responsibility in late news
conference
Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte tried to ward off alarm from spreading throughout Europe’s fourth-biggest economy after he personally unveiled drastic measures in the middle of the night to contain the spread of the deadly coronavirus.
In a hastily convened news conference, the head of a government already hanging by a thread confirmed Italy planned to dramatically restrict movement and activity for a quarter of its population in the economic powerhouse that is the region around Milan.
As news of the measures leaked, it was clear Italians were having an immediate reaction. Video footage on social media showed people rushing to get on the last train out and escape a virtual lockdown that will see people housebound. Schools have already been shut as tourism has ground to a halt and businesses take a hit in a country already on the brink of recession.
Conte’s latest effort at damage control comes as cases surged to 5,883 on Saturday with 233 deaths, and as Nicola Zingaretti, the leader of one of the two major government parties, announced he had contracted the illness.
Yet the premier’s late appearance, and his criticism of “unacceptable” leaks, did little to dispel concern that this was a government with a tenuous grasp of a rapidly evolving national emergency. Conte said he would take “political responsibility” for managing the crisis.
More
This weekend’s musical diversion. J. S Bach and a little sanity in a world gone
mad. Enjoy.
Johann Sebastian Bach Keyboard Concerto in E major, BWV 1053
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished February
DJIA: 25,409
-75 Down. NASDAQ: 8,567 +171 Up. SP500: 2,954 +133 Up.
A mixed bag. But given the severity of the still growing coronavirus
crisis, I wouldn’t follow technical signals in what I think will turn into the
first depression since the 1930s.
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