Baltic Dry Index. 1467 +27 Brent
Crude 63.59 Spot Gold 1459
Never ending Brexit now January 31, or maybe sooner.
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs Now in effect.
The USA v EU trade war started October 18. Now in effect.
"I would have made a good Pope."
President Richard Nixon. (Who knew
he ran for the wrong office? Can an Evangelical Quaker become Pope?)
It is the day after Thanksgiving in America, when
millions of ordinary, sensible, working American’s take the day off to abandon all
common sense, thrift and reason, to go all out on a wild spending spree to
boost China’s consumer export industries.
This year in some parts of the USA, weather difficulties
might impair some of the retail sales. Not to worry though, online shopping
will take up any slack.
Meanwhile, back in the holiday shortened stock and bond
bubbles, the big question on everyone’s minds is will China retaliate for US
interference in China’s domestic affairs?
Hesitant Asian markets appear think no. China’s economy
is too weak to allow President Xi to meaningfully strike back. The Trump Fed’s
latest stock bubble can continue to bubble on, all the way out to November 3rd,
2020 and Trump’s re-election.
Call me an old fashioned dinosaur, but I’d take the other
side of that bet.
President Xi has to retaliate, whatever the state of the
Chinese economy, or risk losing face, probably setting off a Chinese power
struggle. Besides, President Trump loses re-election if there’s no meaningful
USA v China trade deal, causing the Trump Fed stock market bubble to collapse. President
Xi will likely play hardball.
Below, the state of play, on the last day of the month of
the penultimate month of 2019. Dress up Friday, or time to slip quietly out of
the bubble exit? I know what I would be doing.
Stocks hesitate just short of new peaks as clouds darken over U.S.-China ties
November 29, 2019
/ 1:18 AM
TOKYO/HONG
KONG (Reuters) - Asian markets slipped on Friday leaving global shares just
short of an all-time peak as investors turned cautious, fearing a new U.S. law
backing Hong Kong protesters could torpedo efforts to end the U.S.-China trade
war.
MSCI All Country world index .MIWD00000PUS, which tracks shares in 49 countries, were up 0.08% at 548.88, only 0.3% away from all-time peak hit in January last year before the start of U.S.-China trade war.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS fell 0.9%. Hong Kong .HSI led the losses, dropping 2.0%. South Korean shares .KS11 lost 1.2% and Japan's Nikkei .N225 eased 0.1%.
China's blue-chips .CSI300 gave up 0.9% a day before the country reports manufacturing activity, which analysts polled by Reuters expect to have shrunk for seventh straight month in November.
Asian markets were sold off due to uncertainty over how U.S. markets will perceive the latest clash between Washington and Beijing over Hong Kong.
Traders on Wall Street will commence a half-day session on Friday
following Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday. U.S. S&P 500 mini futures ESc1
were down 0.26%.
China warned the United States on Thursday it would take “firm counter measures”
in response to U.S. legislation backing anti-government protesters in Hong
Kong.
Anthony Chan, chief Asia investment strategist at Union Bancaire Privée
in Hong Kong, said the market is still erring on the side of caution especially
as the year-end approaches.
“There is still downward pressure on earnings. That’s why when there is
(negative) geopolitical news, some funds might want to sell and lock in their
performance,” he said.
But on the whole, investors are now betting that while the U.S. legislation spoils the mood, ultimately it remained in the interest of both Washington and Beijing to move forward with talks to get a trade deal.
“The working assumption for most investors is that this will not derail the trade talks, given China is suffering from an economic slowdown,” said Norihiro Fujito, chief investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.
Sentiment in the region has enjoyed an additional boost from a strong share performance this week by Alibaba Group (9988.HK), Asia’s largest firm by market capitalization. Alibaba has risen as much as 16% since their IPO in Hong Kong on Tuesday.
More
China Financial Warning Signs Are Flashing Almost Everywhere
Bloomberg News
Updated on November 29, 2019, 4:03 AM GMT
From rural bank runs to surging consumer
indebtedness and an unprecedented bond restructuring,
mounting signs of financial stress in China are putting the nation’s policy
makers to the test.Xi Jinping’s government faces an increasingly difficult balancing act as it tries to support the world’s second-largest economy without encouraging moral hazard and reckless spending. While authorities have so far been reluctant to rescue troubled borrowers and ramp up stimulus, the costs of maintaining that stance are rising as defaults increase and China’s slowdown deepens.
In its annual Financial Stability Report released this week, China’s central bank described 586 of the country’s almost 4,400 lenders as “high risk,” slightly more than last year. It also highlighted the dangers associated with rising consumer leverage, saying household debt as a percentage of disposable income jumped to 99.9% in 2018 from 93.4% a year earlier.
The PBOC and other regulators have long warned about the risks of excessive corporate debt, which climbed to a record 165% of gross domestic product in 2018, according to Bloomberg Economics.
For now, investors appear to be betting that policy makers can manage the country’s financial risks and keep the economy afloat.
The government’s sale of $6 billion in sovereign dollar debt this week was oversubscribed, while volatility in the Chinese stock market has dropped to the lowest level since early 2018, in part due to optimism over the prospects for a trade deal with the U.S. Yield spreads on the short-term debt of lower-rated Chinese banks relative to AAA peers have narrowed in recent months, a sign that smaller lenders are finding it easier to secure funding.
More
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-28/china-s-financial-warning-signs-are-flashing-almost-everywhere
China vows countermeasures after Trump signs pro-Hong Kong bill
Nov. 28, 2019 /
3:58 AM
Nov. 28 (UPI) -- China on Thursday condemned the United States for signing a bill
into law in support of pro-democracy Hong Kong protesters and vowed to
retaliate for the "stark hegemonic acts."On Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump signed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act into law that requires the State Department to annually assess whether Hong Kong's level of autonomy from China warrants its special trade status and mandates sanctions be imposed against those responsible for committing human rights abuses against Hong Kong citizens, among other directives.
The bill was introduced following the outbreak of mass pro-democracy
protests in June by Hong Kongers against the Chinese government that have
continued into their sixth month.
China on Thursday criticized the bill as an attempt by the United States
to interfere in its internal affairs, an argument it has repeated since the
legislature was first introduced, and accused the United States of distorting
facts and supporting "violent criminals."
"The egregious and malicious nature of its intentions is fully revealed," China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement. "Its very aim is to undermine Hong Kong's stability and prosperity, sabotage the practice of 'one country, two systems,' and disrupt Chinese nation's endeavor to realize the great renewal."
Hong Kong has functioned under the so-called one country, two systems model since it was returned to China from British rule in 1997, which affords it freedoms the mainland does not share.
China said the bill exposes the United States' "malicious and hegemonic" intentions but its attempts to interfere "are bound to fail," vowing to take countermeasures if the United States does not rectify the situation.
"The United States must bear all consequences," it said.
---- The Hong Kong And Macao Affairs Office also issued its own statement, accusing the United States of being the biggest "black hand" behind the protests.
"This bill, which has been condemned by the entire Chinese people, including Hong Kong compatriots, is full of prejudice and arrogance," the statement said. "It treats Hong Kong with intimidation and threats, and blatantly provides protection to anti-China Hong Kong elements with insidious intention."
Prominent protest leader Joshua Wong called the bill's passing Thursday a "remarkable achievement."
"The bill signifies fundamental change of U.S.'s China policy and a new stage of the U.S.-H.K. relation," he said via Twitter, adding that he along with other protesters "will continue our efforts in other countries to encourage similar legislative efforts and sanctions mechanism."
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2019/11/28/China-vows-countermeasures-after-Trump-signs-pro-Hong-Kong-bill/4301574929910/?lh=5
In other news, the global auto recession deepens. A wider recession lies directly ahead.
France's PSA to sell stake in smaller Chinese tie-up as sales slide
November 28,
2019 / 7:07 PM
PARIS/BEIJING (Reuters) - Peugeot maker PSA Group (PEUP.PA)
said it is preparing to sell its 50% stake in an eight-year-old joint venture
with Chinese partner Chongqing Changan Automotive (000625.SZ) which has struggled with
falling sales. The announcement in Paris on Thursday came after Changan also signaled in regulatory filings earlier this month that it was seeking a buyer for its half of the Shenzhen-based venture known as CAPSA, which builds cars under PSA’s premium DS brand.
PSA’s move highlights how global car manufacturers are struggling in the world’s biggest auto market, where sales contracted last year for the first time since the 1990s.
It also plans to cut jobs and drop two of the four assembly plants it shares in a larger join venture with China’s Dongfeng Group (0489.HK), which builds Peugeot and Citroen cars, Reuters reported in August.
A PSA spokesman said the French company still hoped to roll out DS cars in China and a “new strategic plan” would be presented in the coming weeks or months.
The partners planned to continue building DS-branded cars at the Shenzhen plant, a China-based PSA spokesman said on Friday.
PSA’s sale plan would be presented to French unions on Friday, a source
familiar with the matter said.
PSA’s sales in China fell in 2018 by 32% to 262,583 vehicles, a long way
off the 1 million-a-year target it had set itself a few years ago.
Changan said it is seeking a floor price of 1.63 billion yuan ($232
million) for its stake in the joint venture.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-psa-china-changan/frances-psa-to-sell-stake-in-smaller-chinese-tie-up-as-sales-slide-idUKKBN1Y225Q
"This is a great day for France!"
President Richard Nixon while attending the funeral of French
President Charles de Gaulle in 1970.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, America’s pot calls Germany’s kettle black, at least according to
China’s Global Times.
“The Global Times is a daily tabloid
newspaper under the auspices of the Chinese Communist Party's People's Daily
newspaper, focusing on international issues from a nationalistic perspective.”
And this isn’t even part of China’s fight back against America’s, as
perceived by China anyway, meddling in Hong Kong and China’s internal affairs.
Stay tuned in, things are about to get quite interesting.
More countries are beginning to see US double standards
By
Li Qingqing Source: Global Times Published: 2019/11/27
To
refute US fears that Huawei would send sensitive data records to the Chinese
government, German Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy Peter Altmaier said
on Sunday that "Germany still did not impose any boycott" on the US
despite the US National Security Agency's surveillance of German Chancellor
Angela Merkel in 2013.
Then, US Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell hysterically fought back by saying that equating the US government action with that of the "Chinese Communist Party" was "an insult" to the US troops who "help ensure Germany's security" and "the millions of Americans committed to a strong Western alliance." He said there is "no moral equivalency" between China and the US.
First of all, Grenell's remarks were an insult to China and the 1.4 billion Chinese people. It was an extreme statement full of discrimination against another kind of value, race and civilization. Indeed, it is not equivalent to compare China with a hegemonic and inconsistent government full of double standards.
Grenell was also insulting and despising Germany and Europe by forcing European countries to choose sides between China and the US. Washington has been forcing Europe to divide on many issues, and this is completely against European countries' interests. More and more countries have seen US double standards: While the US is hyping Huawei's unfounded spying concerns, it is also spying on its European allies. As time passes by, fewer countries will follow the US.
The US will insist on targeting Huawei worldwide. However, Germany's reaction shows that the results may not be as optimistic as the US had expected. During the Christian Democratic Union of Germany's convention on Friday and Saturday, Merkel said Germany should not rule out any company due to political problems. Indeed, countries should focus more on objective factors, such as companies' technological security and standards, instead of ideology or political system.
Despite US provocation of China-Europe relations, China is determined to promote relations with Europe. For example, Chinese President Xi Jinping and French President Emmanuel Macron expressed on November 6 their support for early conclusion of an ambitious and balanced China-European Union investment agreement. Many leaders from Central and Eastern European countries have expressed their will to deepen cooperation with China. As Merkel said in 2017, Europe has to take its destiny in its own hands.
Then, US Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell hysterically fought back by saying that equating the US government action with that of the "Chinese Communist Party" was "an insult" to the US troops who "help ensure Germany's security" and "the millions of Americans committed to a strong Western alliance." He said there is "no moral equivalency" between China and the US.
First of all, Grenell's remarks were an insult to China and the 1.4 billion Chinese people. It was an extreme statement full of discrimination against another kind of value, race and civilization. Indeed, it is not equivalent to compare China with a hegemonic and inconsistent government full of double standards.
Grenell was also insulting and despising Germany and Europe by forcing European countries to choose sides between China and the US. Washington has been forcing Europe to divide on many issues, and this is completely against European countries' interests. More and more countries have seen US double standards: While the US is hyping Huawei's unfounded spying concerns, it is also spying on its European allies. As time passes by, fewer countries will follow the US.
The US will insist on targeting Huawei worldwide. However, Germany's reaction shows that the results may not be as optimistic as the US had expected. During the Christian Democratic Union of Germany's convention on Friday and Saturday, Merkel said Germany should not rule out any company due to political problems. Indeed, countries should focus more on objective factors, such as companies' technological security and standards, instead of ideology or political system.
Despite US provocation of China-Europe relations, China is determined to promote relations with Europe. For example, Chinese President Xi Jinping and French President Emmanuel Macron expressed on November 6 their support for early conclusion of an ambitious and balanced China-European Union investment agreement. Many leaders from Central and Eastern European countries have expressed their will to deepen cooperation with China. As Merkel said in 2017, Europe has to take its destiny in its own hands.
China
has never told Europe to follow China's steps and fight the US. It is the US
that has been trying to rope in European countries to oppose China. Washington
should not turn Europe into a battlefield of China-US disputes. This is
contempt for Europe.
It seems that some US politicians can never get rid of their Cold War mind-set. But 21st century conditions are different from those in the Cold War era, and today's China is not like the Soviet Union decades ago. China is not a threat to any country. China and Europe are victims of US hegemony and protectionism, and neither of them can bear multilateralism breaking down. When facing the US government's words and deeds, China and Europe must jointly maintain the free and open global investment environment to deal with the challenges.
It seems that some US politicians can never get rid of their Cold War mind-set. But 21st century conditions are different from those in the Cold War era, and today's China is not like the Soviet Union decades ago. China is not a threat to any country. China and Europe are victims of US hegemony and protectionism, and neither of them can bear multilateralism breaking down. When facing the US government's words and deeds, China and Europe must jointly maintain the free and open global investment environment to deal with the challenges.
“It
must not appear that you're trying to affect the network's news content. That's
what you must do, but you must not appear to be doing that. That would be
stupid."
President
Richard Nixon, ordering staff members to get Bill Moyers's new show on PBS off
the air
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
FACTBOX: The Asian companies dominating the global electric-battery market
November 27, 2019 04:16 AM
Asian companies dominate the market for electric-vehicle batteries and
they are expanding their production capacity in Europe, China and the United
States in a fight to win lucrative contracts from global automakers.
Some automakers worry, however, there will not be enough batteries for
all the EVs they plan to launch in the coming years and a bitter row between
South Korea's SK Innovation and LG Chem risks exacerbating the potential
shortfall.
Below are details of the world's leading EV battery makers with details
of their customers and expansion plans:
CATL
China's Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), the world's biggest EV
battery maker, counts BMW, Volkswagen Group, Daimler, Volvo, Toyota and Honda
among its customers.
The company emerged as a major force partly thanks to Beijing's policy
of only subsidising vehicles equipped with Chinese batteries in the world's
biggest EV market. Beijing is phasing out EV subsidies next year.
CATL, which operates factories in China, is building its first overseas
plant in Germany and is considering a U.S. factory.
Panasonic
Japan's Panasonic, a supplier of U.S. EV pioneer Tesla , said it has
installed equipment to ramp up production at Tesla's Nevada plant to 35 GWh
from its current production of around 30 GWh as of late October. Panasonic has
said it is investing about $1.6 billion in the factory.
Panasonic also produces EV batteries in Japan, China and plans to shift
some of its plants to a new joint venture with Toyota. Panasonic's clients also
include Honda and Ford.
BYD
China's BYD, which is backed by U.S. investor Warren Buffett, is also
one of the world's biggest EV battery makers. It mainly uses them in-house for
its own cars and buses. BYD said last year it is was considering cell
production in Europe.
LG Chem
The South Korean firm was an early industry mover, winning a contract to
supply General Motor's Volt in 2008. It also supplies Ford, Renault, Hyundai
Motor, Tesla, VW and Volvo.
It is investing 3.3 trillion won ($2.8 billion) to build and expand
production facilities near Tesla's plant in Shanghai. It has a joint venture
(JV) in China with Geely Automobile Holdings , which makes Volvos, and is in
talks with other automakers about JVs in major markets.
The company is considering building a second U.S. factory in addition to
its facility in Michigan and is expanding its plant in Poland.
Samsung SDI
Samsung SDI an affiliate of South Korean tech giant Samsung Electronics,
has EV battery plants in South Korea, China and Hungary, which supply customers
such as BMW, Volvo and Volkswagen.
Samsung SDI is investing about 1.2 billion euros ($1.3 billion) to
expand its factory in Hungary though the EU is investigating whether Budapest's
financial support complies with the bloc's state aid rules.
Samsung started production last year on the Hungary plant, which will
produce batteries for 50,000 EVs a year.
SK Innovation
LG Chem's cross-town rival SK Innovation supplies batteries to
Volkswagen, Daimler and Kia Motors, as well as Jaguar Land Rover and Ferrari.
An oil refiner that came to the battery industry late, SKI is investing
about $3.9 billion to build three plants in the United States, China and
Hungary, with a goal of expanding its annual production capacity to 33 GWh by
2022.
SKI currently operates one battery factory in South Korea, with a
capacity of 4.7 GWh annually.
It set up a joint venture with Beijing Automotive Industry Corporation
(BAIC) of China in August 2018 and another Chinese partner. It is in talks with
VW about another battery JV and is building a $1.7 billion factory in the U.S.
state of Georgia, not far from VW's Chattanooga plant.
Another weekend, and
the end of the month too. Dress up time
for stocks and a few commodities. A good weekend to ponder what President Nixon
might have tweeted had Twitter been around in the early 1970s. Have a great
weekend everyone.
"I would not like to be a Russian leader. They never know
when they're being taped."
President Richard Nixon
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished October
DJIA: 27,046 +59 Up. NASDAQ: 8,292 +67 Up. SP500: 3,038 +67 Up.
Another inconclusive month,
but all three continued to move up weakly. A buy signal. But, like the Fed, I
would await more data.
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