Baltic Dry Index. 1378 -50 Brent Crude 62.51 Spot Gold 1459
Never ending Brexit now January 31,
maybe sooner.
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs
Now in effect.
The USA v EU trade war started October
18. Now in effect.
It is the great
multiplication of the productions of all the different arts, in consequence of
the division of labour, which occasions, in a well-governed society, that
universal opulence which extends itself to the lowest ranks of the people.
Adam Smith, The Wealth of
Nations, 1776.
With US stock markets at or close to all
time highs, bubble highs in this old dinosaur’s opinion, this weekend we
challenge the underlying assumption that condition’s are right for a
sustainable new stock rally from here.
Though a new recession doesn’t seem
imminent in the USA, thanks to the Fed monetising at over 100 billion a day,
from Asia to Europe a new recession is likely imminent, if not already
underway. If Asia and Europe drop into recession, how long before the US
economy follows suit?
Besides, why is the US Fed monetising at
over 100 billion a day?
Our global economy is very unlike 2008-2009, when the world’s
central banks barely managed to prevent a crash of the global financial
system. Our global economy now rests on gargantuan, unrepayable debt, zero and
negative interest rates, China, and smoke and mirror accounting, as with stock buybacks.
Our western politics are now highly polarised,
with a wealth imbalance back to the levels of the 1920s in many countries,
thanks largely to the Great Nixonian Error of fiat money, which financialised
the western economies and trashed manufacturing, farming, mining, and the rest
of the non-financialised economy.
The result is the spiralling social
disorder across planet earth.
Today’s unanswerable question, is this
just the start of the end of the Great Nixonian Error of fiat money? Does the
next recession blow up the current, close to failing financial system largely built by Greenspan-Bernanke-Yellen,
since the stock market crash of 1987?
Opinion: Don’t count on investors’ cash coming off the sidelines to boost stock prices
By Howard Gold
Published: Nov 8, 2019 8:53 p.m. ET
On Wall Street, rose-colored glasses come with the
territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,
+0.02% and
the Standard & Poor’s 500 SPX, +0.26%
both just hit all-time highs after one of the quietest, most grudging
rallies I’ve ever seen. Yet the latest meme circulating down in the Canyon of Heroes, courtesy of a recent Wall Street Journal story, says the fun is just getting started because a record $3.4 trillion in cash is sitting “on the sidelines” just waiting to be funneled into stocks.
That “sidelines” cash story is one of the great tales stockbrokers and fund managers tell themselves because they think everybody is sitting on wads of money, just waiting for the right “nudge” to go all-in.
But a deep dive into the numbers shows that over the long run, the accumulation of cash is almost entirely an institutional phenomenon; since January 2006, individuals may have added little or no cash at all. So, although institutions have some kindling wood to toss in the fire — if they even want to — for many individuals, there’s no sideline to stand on.
In fact, since the start of 2006 — a period that includes one of the biggest bear markets and the longest bull market ever — individuals have pulled hundreds of billions of dollars out of U.S. stock funds, according to investment researcher Morningstar.
Morningstar’s “non-institutional” investors, which include individuals, as well as financial advisers buying funds and ETFs for individual accounts or anyone buying a non-institutional fund share class, put more than $2 trillion into bonds and international stocks during that time.
Meanwhile, institutions appeared to have invested prudently since Jan. 2, 2006, putting slightly more money into U.S. stocks than international equity but adding even more to fixed income and cash.
Some of that cash may well go into buying stocks, and would help drive the market higher, as this column noted in September. But after a 10-year-long bull market and growing concerns about recession, nobody’s ready to buy stocks hand-over-fist. (Even Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway BRK.A, -0.70% BRK.B, -0.64% has amassed a record $128-billion cash hoard and hasn’t made a major acquisition since 2016. Unless it’s a deep-discount value stock — the kind Buffett’s mentor Benjamin Graham preferred — I think Buffett is likely to wait for the next bear market to scoop up blue-chip companies on the cheap.)
Read: Why the prospective $70 billion buyout of Walgreens may signal the stock-market rally is about to end
The big story, though, isn’t about either stocks or cash. It’s that both institutions and individuals have made a huge move into bonds — investing $2.7 trillion since January 2006.
There are good reasons for this. Pension funds need low-risk instruments such as bonds and cash to make regular payouts and balance out the risk of stocks, which they must own for long-term growth. And as baby boomers, and after them Gen Xers, prepare to retire, they shift more assets into bonds and out of stocks to protect themselves from the risks of a sharp bear market decline just when they need to tap into their nest eggs.
More
China-U.S. trade war to ease but conflicts will persist - former finance minister
November 9, 2019 / 4:51 AM
BEIJING
(Reuters) - A Sino-U.S. trade war could ease somewhat but wider conflicts
between the world’s two largest economies will continue, Lou Jiwei, a former
Chinese finance minister, said on Saturday.
“Look at the
next development, there could be compromises in the trade war at a certain
stage, and we have seen signs of compromising,” Lou, now an official with a
body that advises China’s parliament, told an economic forum in Beijing.
Officials
from both countries on Thursday said China and the United States had agreed to
roll back tariffs already put in place on each others’ goods if a “phase one”
deal was concluded, but the idea has been met with opposition from some quarters
of the administration U.S. President Donald Trump.
Trump
himself, in comments that hit stock prices and the dollar, said on Friday he
had not agreed to a tariff rollback.
Washington
has adopted a strategy to contain China’s economic rise by preventing the
country from climbing up the global value chain, Lou said.
“Containment
and counter-containment are inevitable and that will be a long-term issue,” he
said.
But Lou also
said it would be difficult for the United States to decouple from China, given
the potential disruption to global supply chains and the impact on businesses.
The U.S.
tariffs on Chinese exports will not fundamentally resolve its trade deficit,
which is caused by the high U.S. government debt ratio and a low household
savings rate, he said.
China should
open up its economy wider to foreign investors, but it should not rush to relax
its capital controls, Lou said.
China factory prices falter, while inflation soars to near eight-year high
November 9, 2019 / 4:40 AM
BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s producer
prices fell the most in more than three years in October, as the manufacturing
sector weakened on declining demand and a knock from the Sino-U.S. tariff war,
reinforcing the case for Beijing to keep the stimulus coming.
The producer
price index (PPI), seen as a key indicator of corporate profitability, fell 1.6%
in October from a year earlier, marking the steepest decline since July 2016,
National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed on Saturday. Analysts had
tipped a contraction of 1.5% for the PPI.
In contrast,
China’s consumer prices rose at their fastest pace in almost eight years,
driven mostly by a surge in pork prices as African swine fever ravaged the
country’s hog herds. Some analysts say the CPI rise could become a concern for
policymakers looking to introduce measures to prop up demand.
However,
core inflation - which excludes food and energy prices - pressures remain
modest.
The factory
deflation was punctuated by falling raw material prices, including in the oil
and gas extraction and ferrous metal smelting industries. It aligns with other
indicators showing shrinking manufacturing activity in October, with the
official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) indicating contraction for a sixth
straight month.
More
Germany's economic pain is here to stay
November 8, 2019 / 3:38 PM
FRANKFURT (Reuters) - It was meant to be a
fleeting slowdown for Europe’s economic powerhouse, followed by a rapid rebound.
Instead,
Germany has been stuck in neutral for a year with hopes fading for a
turnaround, a situation that threatens to spread lasting economic gloom across
Europe.
Its vast
industry is in recession, a victim of shifting consumer trends, China’s economic
rebalancing, and a global trade war. Investment spending is shrinking,
sentiment is souring, job creation has stalled and productivity growth looks to
have turned negative.
Compounding
the pain, what was thought to be an unfortunate coincidence of one-off factors
has turned out to denote deeper structural problems that will keep Germany, and
by extension, the 19-member euro zone, weak well into the next decade.
Exhibit A
will be Thursday’s release of third-quarter growth data, which is expected to
confirm fears that Germany is in recession. Whether the actual figure is minus
0.1%, as a Reuters poll indicates, or merely shows a flat outcome, does not
change the bigger picture.
“Germany is
likely to remain in a zone between modest positive growth and slight GDP
declines,” Commerzbank economist Jörg Krämer said. “Once the downturn is over,
however, there is unlikely to be a strong economic recovery ... the German
export industry will suffer for a long time to come.”
Germany’s
independent Council of Economic Experts delivered a similarly grim message just
days ago: the good old days are over and it’s time to reform.
Germany is
slow to adopt new technology, investment is weak and barriers to starting new
businesses are too high, said the five-person Council, whose members include
Isabel Schnabel, soon to be a member of the European Central Bank’s Executive
Board.
Its rapidly
ageing population helps keep productivity growth weak: because the labour
market is shrinking and skilled workers are hard to come by, firms hoard labour
even during downturns for fear they will struggle to hire during the rebound.
Banks are of
little help to the economy either. They operate with the highest costs in the
euro zone and their combined return on equity in the second quarter was zero.
This
is a problem because banks restrict lending when the economy slows to save
capital, exacerbating any recession. And with earnings already weak, they are
unlikely to support the economy.
More
Finally, this weekend, how Unicorns are
born and how they die. Well not quite yet, but probably soon, as the US tort
bar preps for WeWork action. Did Wall Street aid and abet a crime? The US tort
bar will soon find out.
The secret of life is honesty and fair dealing. If you can fake
that, you've got it made.
Groucho Marx
As WeWork Grew, Wall Street Lent It Money and Credibility
Banks arranged giant fees and strict protections that reflected concerns about the business model
By David Benoit, Maureen Farrell and Liz
Hoffman
Nov. 8, 2019 5:30 am ET
Banks jockeying for a role in WeWork’s public debut wooed
founder Adam Neumann with sky-high valuations that would make him a billionaire
many times over. Their loans to the company told a different story.When Wells Fargo & Co. signed on to a $6 billion loan earlier this year, Mr. Neumann said: “If the largest lender in this country can get comfortable with this, then everybody should.”
Yet Wells Fargo, the fourth-largest U.S. bank, only started lending to WeWork after an executive at the bank promised to keep an eye on Mr. Neumann, according to people familiar with the matter.
Banks harbored significant doubts about We Co., as the WeWork parent is known, even as they pitched its stock to investors, according to interviews and documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. Running out of cash, the company was rescued last month by Japanese conglomerate SoftBank Group Corp. in a deal that bounced Mr. Neumann.
WeWork’s unraveling has hit hardest the wallets and reputations of SoftBank and other venture-capital investors who enabled Mr. Neumann and his company’s rise. But with its money and credibility, Wall Street also fed the company’s breakneck growth and its image as a superhot technology company.
WeWork’s model—leasing office space, outfitting it with touches like free beer and fruit-infused water, then subleasing it—required a constant supply of credit. Landlords demanded bank letters that guaranteed several months of rent upfront. These letters could be recycled as the short-term pledges expired.
JPMorgan was one of the biggest lenders to WeWork and to Mr. Neumann, who counted CEO James Dimon and asset-management chief Mary Erdoes, whose division had lent to Mr. Neumann, among his confidants.
In 2015, JPMorgan led a group of banks extending a $650 million loan to WeWork. Two years later, the company went back for another $500 million, and Wells Fargo joined the group.
Wells Fargo bankers acknowledged internally that WeWork’s business model was unproven but agreed to lend $100 million if the company set aside cash as collateral, according to people familiar with the matter and a memo reviewed by the Journal.
WeWork would be a profitable client in Silicon Valley, where Wells Fargo doesn’t have a strong presence, they argued in the memo. It also could land the bank a role in WeWork’s IPO and future stock sales, which the bankers estimated could bring in $12 million in fees, according to the internal memo about whether to approve the loan.
----This summer, as WeWork prepared to go public, Mr. Neumann told friends a new round of bank financing would “blow the market away,” according to a person familiar with the matter. He had been meeting with Mr. Dimon and Goldman CEO David Solomon, people familiar with the conversations said.
Bankers at JPMorgan and Goldman, meanwhile, were vying for roles in the company’s IPO. They had told Mr. Neumann it could be worth as much as $60 billion (JPMorgan) and $90 billion (Goldman), according to people familiar with the matter. Lining up a loan would help them win the assignment.
JPMorgan proposed a $6 billion loan that required WeWork to raise $3 billion in the stock market by the year’s end. The package included a $2 billion line of credit it could use to continue to sign deals for new space.
Goldman proposed $3.65 billion in loans, secured by income from WeWork’s buildings, people familiar with the matter said. The deal would allow WeWork to borrow more if it hit certain milestones—up to $10 billion over time—and didn’t require the company to go public, some of the people said. WeWork executives wanted more money upfront, they said.
JPMorgan won.
----The IPO ran into trouble almost immediately after documents were filed in August. Investors balked at WeWork’s growing losses and unusual financial arrangements between the company and Mr. Neumann. Bankers offered shares at a lower price; investors still didn’t bite.
The company pushed Mr. Neumann out as CEO and called off the IPO in September, which killed the loan deal. WeWork, suddenly dangerously low on cash, found the banks unwilling to reup.
It turned back to JPMorgan, seeking a $5 billion lifeline, people familiar with the matter said.
This time, the bank refused to lend its own money without gauging demand from investors, people familiar with the matter said. It eventually offered the full $5 billion itself.
WeWork took SoftBank’s money instead.
Mr. Dimon defended his bank’s dealings with WeWork in a television interview this week.
“We helped WeWork get to a proper conclusion,” Mr. Dimon said. “Now it has a chance to succeed.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-wework-grew-wall-street-lent-it-money-and-credibility-11573209003?mod=mhp
WeWork Puts Staff in Europe on Notice for Job Cuts
By Jack Sidders, Shawna Kwan, and Shelly Banjo
November 6, 2019, 1:04 PM GMT Updated on November 6, 2019,
4:33 PM GMT
·
Consultations with employees in region said to
begin this week
·
Talks follow pullback in Hong Kong, review of
London expansion
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-06/wework-said-to-put-staff-in-europe-on-notice-for-job-cutsWeWork, ex-CEO Neumann and Softbank sued over botched IPO, plummeting value
Minority shareholders seek to recoup losses after company's value plunged more than 87%
Thomson Reuters · Posted:
Nov 08, 2019 12:53 PM ET
WeWork
officials, including co-founder and former Chief Executive Adam Neumann, are
being sued by minority shareholders to recoup losses as the shared workspace
provider pulled its initial public offering and saw its value plunge more than
87 per cent.
In a
proposed class action filed this week in San Francisco Superior Court, former
WeWork employee Natalie Sojka accused the company's board of directors of
breaching its fiduciary duties to minority shareholders like her.
The San
Francisco resident faulted the board for letting Japan's SoftBank Group rescue
WeWork by boosting its stake to a potential 80 per cent from 29 per cent at a
"fire-sale" price, and granting Neumann a $1.7 billion exit package.
Softbank and
its chairman, Masayoshi Son, are among the 10 named defendants in the Nov. 4
complaint.
"WeWork
believes this lawsuit is meritless," a spokeswoman said on Friday.
Softbank and outside representatives did not immediately respond to requests
for comment. Sojka's lawyer did not immediately respond to a similar request.
The lawsuit is a new hurdle for WeWork, whose New York-based parent, the We Company, shelved its IPO on Sept. 30 after investors grew wary of its losses, its business model and its corporate governance. Neumann had resigned the previous week.
Estimates of WeWork's valuation have sunk to as little as $5.9 billion US, based on the value of Softbank's proposed $9.5 billion rescue, from $47 billion in August.
Major job cuts are expected, and Neumann's former chief of staff sued him last week for pregnancy discrimination.
Sojka said she was a WeWork shareholder while employed there for 1½ years.
She said that following her voluntary departure, she exercised stock options after being told WeWork intended to go public soon and the value of its stock would rise significantly.
Instead, Sojka said, "because of defendants' wrongdoing, the value of such stock has been significantly reduced and plaintiff has been harmed and is threatened with irreparable harm from defendants' proposed tender offer and other transactions."
More
Why a four-year-old child could understand this report. Run out
and find me a four-year-old child. I can't make head nor tail out of it.
Jammie Dimon, with apologies to Groucho Marx
This weekend’s musical diversion. Back to the very underrated, and rarely played
Johan Friedrich Fasch. This weekend his concerto for hunting horns.
Johann Friedrich Fasch (1688-1758) Concerto for 2 corni da caccia
The statesman who should
attempt to direct private people in what manner they ought to employ their
capitals, would not only load himself with a most unnecessary attention, but
assume an authority which could safely be trusted, not only to no single
person, but to no council or senate whatever, and which would nowhere be so
dangerous as in the hands of a man who had folly and presumption enough to
fancy himself fit to exercise it.
Adam Smith. The Wealth of
Nations, 1776.
A warning to UK voters about Comrade
Corbyn!
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished October
DJIA: 27,046
+59 Up. NASDAQ: 8,292 +67 Up. SP500: 3,038 +67 Up.
Another inconclusive month, but all three continued to move up weakly. A
buy signal. But, like the Fed, I would await more data.
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