Baltic Dry Index. 1284 +29 Brent Crude 63.39 Spot Gold 1462
Never ending Brexit now January 31,
maybe sooner.
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs
Now in effect.
The USA v EU trade war started October
18. Now in effect.
Gold would have value if
for no other reason than that it enables a citizen to fashion his financial
escape from the state.
William F. Rickenbacker
With soothing, oily, trade war words
from Presidents Xi and Trump, both presidents sought to boost the latest stock
market bubble into the weekend. But not everyone was over awed.
To this old dinosaur commodities trader,
following commodity and stock markets since 1968, all bubbles eventually end
badly, and the current one will be no exception.
The big trouble this time round, is a
world already undergoing generational, and social and political upheaval,
polarising between conservative right and far left neo-Marxism. A fitting ending to the Great Nixonian Error
of fiat money, communist money, August 15, 1971.
The benefits of fiat money were all
front loaded and long ago dissipated in wars, special interest favours, voter
subsidies and western louche lifestyle. The chickens are now coming home to
roost, and our central banksters haven’t a clue how to fix the failing fiat
currency financialised system. Bizarre negative interest rates, only undermine
what’s left of capitalism faster.
Though a very imperfect insurance
policy, owning some fully paid up physical precious metals is a must for the
coming bust.
Because
silver and gold have their value from the matter itself, they have first this
privilege, that the value of them cannot be altered by the power of one, nor of
a few commonwealths, as being a common measure of the commodities of all
places. But base money may easily be enhanced or abased.
Thomas Hobbes
Dollar, global shares gain on Xi, Trump remarks
November 22, 2019 / 12:32 AM
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar gained and
global equity markets rose on Friday on upbeat U.S. economic data while
amicable messages from Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald
Trump helped defuse tensions over the prolonged U.S.-Sino trade war.
Government bond yields mostly rose as U.S. manufacturing output accelerated in November to its fastest pace in seven months and a survey of purchasing managers showed services activity also picked up more than expected.
Equity markets warmed to China’s renewed offer to reach a trade agreement with the United States. Xi said China wants to work out an initial pact and avoid a trade war.
Trump reciprocated, saying a trade deal with China is “potentially very close” and also that he stands with both the people of Hong Kong and Xi amid massive protests in the former British colony.
MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe .MIWD00000PUS inched up 0.16%, with the pan-European STOXX 600 index closing up 0.44%.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI rose 109.33 points, or 0.39%, to 27,875.62. The S&P 500 .SPX gained 6.75 points, or 0.22%, to 3,110.29 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC added 13.67 points, or 0.16%, to 8,519.89.
A 6.14% slump in shares of Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) weighed on Nasdaq as its electric pickup truck design received an underwhelming response.
“What you’ve seen is a market, even when the trade news wasn’t that great, you’ve seen the equity market still remaining extraordinarily well-bid,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist for the Americas at French bank Natixis in New York.
More
Opinion: Roubini explains why the stock market’s new exuberance may be irrational
By Nouriel
Roubini Published: Nov 21, 2019 8:52
a.m. ET
---- And, lastly, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and other major central banks have gotten ahead of geopolitical headwinds by easing monetary policies. With central banks once again coming to the rescue, even minor “green shoots” — such as the stabilization of the U.S. manufacturing sector and the resilience of services and consumption growth — have been taken as a harbinger of renewed global expansion.
Not all is well
Yet there is much to suggest that not all is well with the global economy.For starters, recent data from China, Germany, and Japan suggest that the slowdown is still ongoing, even if its pace has become less severe.
Second, while the U.S. and China may agree to a truce, the ongoing decoupling of the world’s two largest economies will almost certainly accelerate again after the U.S. election next November. In the medium to long term, the best one can hope for is that the looming cold war will not turn hot.
Third, while China has shown restraint in confronting the popular uprising in Hong Kong, the situation in the city is worsening, making a forceful crackdown likely in 2020. Among other things, a militarized Chinese response could derail any trade deal with the U.S. and shock financial markets, as well as push Taiwan in the direction of forces supporting independence — a red line for Beijing.
Fourth, although a “hard Brexit” may be off the table, the eurozone is experiencing a deepening malaise that is not related to the U.K.’s impending departure. Germany and other countries with fiscal space continue to resist demands for stimulus.
Worse, the ECB’s new president, Christine Lagarde, will most likely be unable to provide much more in the way of monetary-policy stimulus, given that one-third of the ECB Governing Council already opposes the current round of easing.
Europe is vulnerable
Beyond challenges stemming from an aging population, weakening Chinese demand, and the costs of meeting new emissions standards, Europe also remains vulnerable to Trump’s oft-repeated threat to impose import tariffs on German and other European cars. And key European economies — not least Germany, Spain, France, and Italy — are experiencing political ructions that could translate into economic trouble.---- Sixth, central banks are reaching the limits of what they can do to backstop the economy, and fiscal policy remains constrained by politics and high debts. To be sure, policy makers could turn to even more unconventional policies — namely, monetized fiscal deficits — whenever another downturn occurs, but they will not do so until the next crisis is already severe.
Seventh, the populist backlash against globalization, trade, migration, and technology is worsening in many places. In a race to the bottom, more countries may pursue policies to restrict the movement of goods, capital, labor, technology, and data. While recent mass protests in Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Spain, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iraq, Iran, and Lebanon reflect a variety of causes, all are experiencing economic malaise and rising political resentment over inequality and other issues.
Eighth, the
U.S. under Trump may become the biggest source of uncertainty. Trump’s “America
First” trade and foreign policies risk destroying the international order that
the U.S. and its allies created after WWII.
Some in
Europe — like French President Emmanuel Macron — worry that NATO is now comatose,
while the U.S. is provoking rather than supporting its Asian allies, such as
Japan and South Korea. At home, the impeachment process will lead to even more
bipartisan gridlock and warfare, and some Democrats running for the party
nomination have policy platforms that are making financial markets nervous.
Finally,
medium-term trends may cause still more economic damage and disruption:
demographic aging in advanced economies and emerging markets will inevitably
reduce potential growth, and restrictions on migration will make the problem
worse. Climate change is already causing costly economic damage as extreme
weather events become more frequent, virulent, and destructive.
More
In China news, African swine fever caused
pork imports to almost 50 percent year on year. Beef imports rise too. It’s an
ill wind, and all that.
China's October pork imports double on year
November 23, 2019 / 3:58 AM
BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s pork imports
in October doubled from a year earlier, as wholesalers stocked up on supplies
after disease decimated the huge hog herd, customs data showed on Saturday.
October
arrivals came to 177,426 tonnes, up from the previous month’s 161,836 tonnes.
Pork imports
for the first ten months of the year stood at 1.5 million tonnes, up 49.4% from
the corresponding period a year earlier, data from the General Administration
of Customs shows.
The data is
for muscle cuts and does not include offal and other non-muscle parts known as
‘variety meats’.
Deadly
African swine fever has reduced the world’s top pig herd by 41%, according to
official data, after spreading throughout China and leaving many farmers
unwilling to replenish their farms.
The slump in
the herd pushed retail pork prices by late October up 148% from a year earlier,
to almost 59 yuan ($8.38) per kg, causing food inflation to spike.
China has
been opening up its market to new sources of meat, approving dozens of new pork
processing plants in Brazil, Argentina and Britain in recent months to help
alleviate its protein shortage.
It received
its first cargo of Italian pork this week, customs said on its website, while
Argentina shipped its first boatload of chilled pork to China.
In the
United States, top processor Smithfield has transformed a slaughterhouse to
ship pig carcasses to China.
Imports of
beef, usually more expensive than pork, are also benefiting from the meat
shortage, with October arrivals at 150,829 tonnes, up 63.2% on a year ago..
More
Next, China v Canada, other China news.
China warns Canada against following America on Hong Kong. Delivers a thinly veiled
threat against the 300,000 Canadians living in Hong Kong.
China envoy warns of 'very bad damage' if Canada follows U.S. lead on Hong Kong
November 22, 2019 / 6:37 PM
OTTAWA (Reuters) - China’s new ambassador
to Canada on Friday warned Ottawa not to follow the U.S. lead and formally back
protesters in Hong Kong, saying such a move would cause “very bad damage” to
already poor ties with Beijing.
Canada,
locked in a trade and diplomatic dispute with China, has repeatedly expressed
concern about the safety of its 300,000 citizens in Hong Kong, hit by five
months of mass demonstrations for more democracy and autonomy.
The U.S.
House of Representatives on Wednesday passed two bills to back the protesters
and send a warning to China about human rights.
“If somebody
here really tries to ... have this kind of law like that in the United States,
it’s very dangerous,” said Chinese envoy Cong Peiwu, speaking in English.
“If anything
happens like this it will certainly have a very bad damage on our bilateral
relationship and that is not in the interests of Canada,” he told a news
conference in the embassy. He formally presented his credentials on Nov 1.
The
uncompromising tone of his message indicated that while the ambassador may have
changed, China’s approach has not.
Cong
repeated Beijing’s demand that Canada immediately release Huawei Technologies
Co Ltd Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou, who is out on bail after Canadian
police detained her on a U.S. arrest warrant last December.
“This
incident has led to the severe difficulties the two countries are facing
nowadays,” said Cong.
Shortly
after Meng’s arrest, China picked up two Canadian citizens on state secret
charges, and has since blocked imports of canola seed from Canada.
Prime
Minister Justin Trudeau, asked on Wednesday what additional measures Canada
would take to protect its citizens in Hong Kong, said, “We will continue to
call for de-escalation and an end to violence” while urging dialogue.
If Canada
wanted to protect its citizens, it should ask “those rioters to stop the
violence, otherwise those Canadians living in Hong Kong, how can they be safe?”
Cong said.
In a move
that could further irritate China, two prominent Hong Kong pro-democracy
activists will accept an award on Saturday at a major Canadian gathering that
is partly funded by the federal government.
More
Finally, this weekend, a follow up to “The
New Energy Economy: An Exercise in Magical Thinking." Much of the same,
but in more bullet point, layman’s terms. Perhaps more suited to the world’s
politicians all fawning for votes based on “a climate crisis,” and rushing to
wrong conclusions.
Inconvenient Energy Realities
Mark P. Mills July 1, 2019
The math behind “The
New Energy Economy: An Exercise in Magical Thinking”A week doesn’t pass without a mayor, governor, policymaker or pundit joining the rush to demand, or predict, an energy future that is entirely based on wind/solar and batteries, freed from the “burden” of the hydrocarbons that have fueled societies for centuries. Regardless of one’s opinion about whether, or why, an energy “transformation” is called for, the physics and economics of energy combined with scale realities make it clear that there is no possibility of anything resembling a radically “new energy economy” in the foreseeable future. Bill Gates has said that when it comes to understanding energy realities “we need to bring math to the problem.”
He’s right. So, in my recent Manhattan Institute report, “The New Energy Economy: An Exercise in Magical Thinking,” I did just that.
Herein, then, is a summary of some of bottom-line realities from the underlying math. (See the full report for explanations, documentation and citations.)
Realities About the Scale of Energy Demand
1. Hydrocarbons supply over 80% of world energy: If all that were in the form of oil, the barrels would line up from Washington, D.C., to Los Angeles, and that entire line would grow by the height of the Washington Monument every week.
2. The small two percentage-point decline in the hydrocarbon share of world energy use entailed over $2 trillion in cumulative global spending on alternatives over that period; solar and wind today supply less than 2% of the global energy.
3. When the world’s four billion poor people increase energy use to just one-third of Europe’s per capita level, global demand rises by an amount equal to twice America’s total consumption.
4. A 100x growth in the number of electric vehicles to 400 million on the roads by 2040 would displace 5% of global oil demand.
5. Renewable energy would have to expand 90-fold to replace global hydrocarbons in two decades. It took a half-century for global petroleum production to expand “only” 10-fold.
6. Replacing U.S. hydrocarbon-based electric generation over the next 30 years would require a construction program building out the grid at a rate 14-fold greater than any time in history.
7. Eliminating hydrocarbons to make U.S. electricity (impossible soon, infeasible for decades) would leave untouched 70% of U.S. hydrocarbons use—America uses 16% of world energy.
8. Efficiency increases energy demand by making products & services cheaper: since 1990, global energy efficiency improved 33%, the economy grew 80% and global energy use is up 40%.
9. Efficiency increases energy demand: Since 1995, aviation fuel use/passenger-mile is down 70%, air traffic rose more than 10-fold, and global aviation fuel use rose over 50%.
10. Efficiency increases energy demand: since 1995, energy used per byte is down about 10,000-fold, but global data traffic rose about a million-fold; global electricity used for computing soared.
11. Since 1995, total world energy use rose by 50%, an amount equal to adding two entire United States’ worth of demand.
12. For security and reliability, an average of two months of national demand for hydrocarbons are in storage at any time. Today, barely two hours of national electricity demand can be stored in all utility-scale batteries plus all batteries in one million electric cars in America.
13. Batteries produced annually by the Tesla Gigafactory (world’s biggest battery factory) can store three minutes worth of annual U.S. electric demand.
14. To make enough batteries to store two-day’s worth of U.S. electricity demand would require 1,000 years of production by the Gigafactory (world’s biggest battery factory).
15. Every $1 billion in aircraft produced leads to some $5 billion in aviation fuel consumed over two decades to operate them. Global spending on new jets is more than $50 billion a year—and rising.
16. Every $1 billion spent on datacenters leads to $7 billion in electricity consumed over two decades. Global spending on datacenters is more than $100 billion a year—and rising.
Realities About Energy Economics
More
For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear,
simple, and wrong.
H. L. Mencken.
This weekend’s musical diversion. A 1701
celebration of the great Polish-German-Austrian victory over the Ottoman Empire
at the Battle of Vienna, September 12,1683, which saved Europe until Germany’s Mrs
Merkel unilaterally invited in over a million mass migrants in 2015.
J. J. Fux: K 331 / Turcaria from Concentus musicum-instrumentale (1701) / Armonico Tributo Austria
The Battle of Vienna 1683
The Battle of Vienna (German: Schlacht am Kahlen Berge or Kahlenberg (Battle of the Bald Mountains); Polish: bitwa pod Wiedniem or odsiecz wiedeńska (The Relief of Vienna); Modern Turkish: İkinci Viyana Kuşatması, Ottoman Turkish: Beç Ḳalʿası Muḥāṣarası) took place at Kahlenberg Mountain near Vienna on 12 September 1683[1] after the imperial city had been besieged by the Ottoman Empire for two months. The battle was fought by the Habsburg Monarchy, the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth and the Holy Roman Empire, under the command of King John III Sobieski against the Ottomans and their vassal and tributary states.The battle marked the first time the Commonwealth and the Holy Roman Empire had cooperated militarily against the Ottomans, and it is often seen as a turning point in history, after which "the Ottoman Turks ceased to be a menace to the Christian world".[20] In the ensuing war that lasted until 1699, the Ottomans lost almost all of Hungary to the Holy Roman Emperor Leopold I.[20]
More
"Veni, vidi, Deus
vicit"—"I came, I saw, God conquered"
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished October
DJIA: 27,046
+59 Up. NASDAQ: 8,292 +67 Up. SP500: 3,038 +67 Up.
Another inconclusive month, but all three continued to move up weakly. A
buy signal. But, like the Fed, I would await more data.
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