Baltic Dry Index. 1697 -34 Brent
Crude 61.40 Spot Gold 1511
Never ending Brexit now January 31, or maybe sooner.
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs Now in effect.
The USA v EU trade war started October 18. Now in effect.
Because silver and gold have their value
from the matter itself, they have first this privilege, that the value of them
cannot be altered by the power of one, nor of a few commonwealths, as being a
common measure of the commodities of all places. But base money may easily be
enhanced or abased.
Thomas Hobbes
Today for a change, we take a look at gold. What prompted
this was the strange financial situation where some 17 trillion of global bonds
are trading with negative interest rates, highly concentrated in Europe, and
with President Trump on record calling for a lower dollar, and even negative
interest rates in the USA.
While I doubt that the USA will adopt negative interest
rates, I don’t think they’re possible in the world’s by far leading reserve
fiat currency, the US key rate could certainly be manipulated by President
Trump and the Powell Fed, back to zero.
Zero or negative rates, makes holding physical gold,
which doesn’t pay interest, but does generally hold it’s value over long
periods of time, into an attractive alternative to holding negative interest
bonds and stocks in yet another bubble.
What also focused my mind on gold was a report on the BBC
that last Friday, the German Bundesbank has
decided to resume gold purchases again, for the first time in 50 years. Stepping
up insurance against future trouble in the global financial system. Despite
looking, I haven’t found another source for this claim, but I have no reason to
doubt the BBC World Service financial reporting. Political reporting, well it
is the BBC.
In buying gold again, the Bundesbank would be joining
Russia and China, and many of the central Asian central banks in adding to gold
insurance.
What trouble might lie ahead for the global financial system?
Well on Friday it was reported that US Government debt has now reached an
astronomical 23 trillion. It was only 12 trillion when President Obama took
over in January 2009. For comparison USA GDP is officially 21.5 trillion.
With trillion dollar deficits to come through at least
2025, by mid next decade US debt will likely be about 30 trillion, with GDP
about 26 trillion. But that assumes no recession in the next 5+ years.
If a recession hits, taxes decline, social expenses soar,
and the annual deficit widens from 1 trillion a year, probably towards two
trillion.
But it gets worse. President Trump is no old fashioned
Republican President with any interest in curbing the deficit. If re-elected
next year the next four deficits in his remaining term will likely rise.
If a Democrat wins next year, all the present contenders
are very left wing, print and spend, democrats. The US deficit could easily rise
to 2 trillion dollars a year, even without a recession.
So, where do I think gold could go in the next few years?
Under just central bank cautious renewed buying, my guess is towards the earlier
high of around $1,900. But I suspect that the global public will probably get
concerned about US deficits and US politics too, and if/when the public joins
in, it’s anyone’s guess where they might take the gold price.
By mid-2025, we might be looking back at the late teens
as the last era of “cheap” physical gold.
We have gold because we cannot trust
governments.
Herbert Hoover
Asian shares hit 14-week highs on trade deal hopes
November 4, 2019 /
12:38 AM
SHANGHAI
(Reuters) - Asian shares surged to more than 14-week highs on Monday as growing
optimism over U.S.-China trade talks and upbeat U.S. job data boosted global
investors’ appetite for riskier assets.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS jumped 1%, touching its highest level since July 25.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng .HSI led gains in the region, rising 1.4%, and Seoul's Kospi .KS11 added 1.3%. In mainland China, blue chips .CSI300 were up 0.8%, and Australian shares were 0.3% higher.
Markets in Japan were closed for a holiday.
The United States and China both said on Friday that they had made progress in talks aimed at defusing their protracted 16-month-long trade war, and U.S. officials said a deal could be signed this month.
But in a morning note, analysts at National Australia Bank sounded a note of caution.
“As much as the U.S.-China trade updates continue to point to a Phase 1 deal looking like a certainty, the contentious issues on whether the U.S. will cancel the planned December tariffs and remove some of the current tariffs in line with China’s demands remains an unknown and if the issue is not resolved then a deal could easily collapse,” they said.
More
Asia-wide trade pact on course despite India, Thailand says
November 4, 2019 /
4:26 AM
BANGKOK
(Reuters) - Thailand said on Monday that Asian countries had held conclusive
talks on what could be the world’s biggest trade pact and there would be an
announcement of success at a summit in Bangkok despite doubts raised by India.
Spurred in part by the U.S.-China trade war, Southeast Asian countries
hoped to announce at least provisional agreement on the China-backed 16-nation
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) on Monday.
But last minute demands raised by India meant negotiations among
ministers went late into the night alongside a summit of the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) being held in Bangkok, Thailand.
“The negotiation last night was conclusive,” Commerce Minister Jurin
Laksanawisit told Reuters on Monday.
“There will be an announcement together on the success of the RCEP
agreement by the leaders later today. India is part of this as well and will
jointly make the announcement. The signing will be next year.”
RCEP includes the 10-member grouping of Southeast Asian nations, as well
as China, South Korea,
Japan, India, Australia and New Zealand.
More
SNB may need to ease monetary policy even further: chairman
November 2, 2019 /
7:23 PM
VIENNA (Reuters) -
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) may need to take its interest rates further into negative
territory, its chairman Thomas Jordan said in an interview with the weekly NZZ
am Sonntag.
Investors traditionally buy the Swiss franc as a safe haven, but the
resulting increase in value against other currencies makes life hard for Swiss
businesses. In July and August, the Swiss franc hit its highest level against
the euro in two years.
With negative interest rates and increased foreign currency investments,
the central bank tries to dampen demand for the franc and prevent the currency
from becoming too strong.
In September, it left its main policy rate at -0.75%, one of the lowest
rates in the world, and said it expects to stick to its ultra-loose monetary
stance for the long haul.
“The phase of low interest rates could last even longer, and a further
easing of monetary policy may also be necessary under certain circumstances,”
Jordan told the paper in an interview to be published on Sunday, echoing recent
comments from his deputy Martin Schlegel.
Asked whether the SNB’s shareholdings in U.S. companies, worth about 100
billion Swiss francs ($102 billion), could lead to friction with Washington,
Jordan said the central bank was in close contact with the U.S. Treasury
Department.
“Our interventions are never aimed at weakening the franc at the expense
of other economies,” Jordan said.
He rejected the idea, raised by politicians, of making payments directly
to individuals, so-called “helicopter money”, to strengthen their purchase power.
“(Such concepts) assume that the state can easily distribute money to
the population via the central bank without leading to negative consequences in
the longer term,” he said.
“It is a mixture of monetary and fiscal policy, which is playing with
fire.”
Deutsche Bank to Pass on Negative Rates to Major Customers: FAS
By Christoph Rauwald
November
2, 2019, 4:59 PM GMT
Deutsche Bank AG will
pass on negative interest rates only to larger corporate customers or the
deposits of wealthy individuals and spare most retail clients, Deputy Chief
Executive Officer Karl von Rohr said in an interview with Frankfurter
Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung.
The bank is talking to the customers affected and they understand the
issues, von Rohr said in a preview of the interview, which is set to be
published on Sunday.
German banks have already paid several billion euros in penalty rates
for their deposits with the European Central Bank and Deutsche Bank’s payments
amount to “several hundred million euros for 2019,” von Rohr said.
A Giant Nordic Bank Rethinks Market-Making Amid Negative Rates
By Frances Schwartzkopff and Rafaela Lindeberg
November 3, 2019, 5:00 AM GMT
As long-term negative interest rates reshape life in the Nordic region,
its biggest bank is trying to reinvent one of its most important business
areas.
Nordea Bank Abp says it’s rethinking how it does market making -- a
service that helps investors carry out securities trades and ensures liquidity
-- in an effort to adapt to long-term negative rates. The decision, which is
also a reaction to bigger capital requirements, means Nordea will cull its
inventory of securities needed to execute trades. Keeping those products on its
shelf has simply become too costly.
Martin
Persson, head of wholesale banking at Nordea, says the goal is to free up
capital and redirect it to more profitable corners of Nordea.
“For 20 years we’ve had a positive carry on holding bonds,” he said in
an interview. “It’s been a pretty good business. But when we have a negative
carry now, and we still take on a lot of volume, then we just need to change.”
From now on, Nordea will be a lot more selective about what it holds in
its fixed-income trading book, and how long products sit there, Persson said.
The more stringent approach comes as Nordea struggles to steady itself after
years of faltering profits. It’s cut thousands of jobs, thrown vast sums of
money into upgrading its technology platform and sold off riskier businesses.
But investors have complained that the measures failed to revive revenue and
didn’t do enough to rein in costs.
More
The inflated imitations of gold and silver,
which after the rapture are thrown into the fire, all is exhausted and
dissipated by the debt. All scrips and bonds are wiped out. At the fourth
pillar dedicated to Saturn, split by earthquake and flood: vexing everyone, an
urn of gold is found and then restored
Nostradamus
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, more on Trump’s trade war. Will Trump open up a new trade war front
on German cars?
U.S. manufacturers still suffering from China trade fight, tepid global economy, ISM finds
By Jeffry
Bartash Published: Nov 1, 2019 1:23
p.m. ET
The numbers:
American manufacturers are still struggling with soft demand and weak exports
as they navigate an ongoing trade spat with China and a slowing global economy,
according to a closely follow survey.The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index edged up to 48.3% in October from a 10-year low of 47.8%, but it remained in contractionary territory for the third month in a row. The last time that happened was in 2015 during a downturn in the oil patch.
Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had forecast the index to total 49%.
Readings over 50% signal business conditions are getting better, below
50% indicates they are getting worse.
What happened: The indexes measuring new orders and employment
rose slightly, but both remained under the key 50% mark. Exports also turned
positive for the first time in four months, though just barely.
Production declined, however, and only five of the 18 U.S. manufacturing
industries tracked by ISM reported growth.
“Trade cost pressures continue to be a headwind in our business,” said
an executive at a company that makes paper products.
“Economy is showing slight signs of weakening. The same business
headwinds on trade, tariffs, and currency uncertainty are making the
environment challenging,” said an executive at a food producer.
What they are saying? “Sentiment remains more cautious
than optimistic,” said Timothy Fiore, chairman of the survey.
Big picture: Manufacturers have borne the brunt of the U.S. trade war with China. The
dispute between the world’s two largest economies have disrupted global supply
chains and contributed to a broader global slowdown.
Manufacturers aren’t struggling so badly that they need to slash
production or lay off workers, however. Sales in the U.S. are still fairly
strong, trade talks with China are going better and the Federal Reserve has cut
interest rates. Many economists think a small rebound in manufacturing is more
than likely.
More
Trump Decision Due on Foreign Car Tariffs
As impeachment looms, auto tariffs could alienate a key constituency: GOP senators
By Josh Zumbrun and Natalie Andrews
Nov. 1, 2019 9:11 am ET
The White House has until Nov. 13 to decide whether to impose the levies, which President Trump first proposed last year in the event the U.S. can’t reach an accord with major trading partners including the European Union.
Business groups and some of Mr. Trump’s fellow Republicans are warning that the tariffs—which are opposed by both foreign and domestic auto makers—couldn’t come at a worse time.
As the 2020 election season begins, the 25% tariffs would jack up the price of import cars by about $6,875, according to the Center for Automotive Research. Average prices overall would rise by $4,400, the group said, since even domestic manufacturers rely on global supply chains.
Besides angering car-buyers, the higher prices could dent sales, further straining auto makers that are already cutting jobs.
“We all know it’s important to go into an election season with a strong economy,” said Ann Wilson, senior vice president of government affairs at the Motor & Equipment Manufacturers Association. “We believe very strongly that if you impose tariffs on a wide-scale on imported autos or parts it would cause an economic downturn in this country.
Foreign auto makers have invested heavily in U.S. factories, especially in Southern states that are Republican strongholds.
Japan’s Toyota Motor Corp. has factories in Kentucky, Texas and Mississippi. Among German auto makers, Volkswagen AG has a factory in Chattanooga, Tenn., and BMW AG has a major factory in South Carolina. Sweden’s Volvo Group, which is Chinese-owned, also has a plant in South Carolina.
Other foreign auto makers including Daimler AG’s Mercedes-Benz division and Kia Motors Corp. have U.S. plants in the Republican South.
Tariffs would also hit car dealers that sell imports, as well as parts
factories that supply the foreign-car plants.
“There’s not a Senate office that isn’t well aware of the impact this is
going to have on suppliers in their state,” said Ms. Wilson.
Senate Republicans have long opposed the president on car tariffs, but
impeachment could give them a louder voice. A House vote to impeach the
president would lead to a trial in the GOP-controlled Senate.
More
Gold is
money. Everything else is credit.
J. P. Morgan
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Today, EVs in mines.
Swapping one hazard for another. Out goes dangerous fumes and oxygen depletion
in underground mines. In comes Li-ion battery fire hazard. Not a problem in
open pit mining.
The Next Frontier for Electric Vehicles: Deep Underground
To improve air quality and reduce emissions, mining companies aim to shift away from diesel equipment
Rhiannon HoyleNov. 2, 2019 5:30 am ET
From rural Canada to Australia’s dusty Outback, companies
are swapping out diesel-fueled drills, loaders and utility vehicles for
equipment powered by lithium-ion batteries. They are looking to reduce
emissions and eliminate the exhaust fumes that foul the underground air and
risk miners’ health.Around 35 electric vehicles are at work at Newmont Goldcorp Corp. ’s Borden mine near Chapleau, Ontario, unearthing ore or ferrying workers around the site, which began producing commercial volumes in October. Newmont wants the mine to go all-electric. An electric production drill will arrive early next year, a spokesman said, and diesel haul trucks are likely to be phased out.
“The Holy Grail is a haul truck,” said Kirsten Rose, who oversees low-emission technologies at BHP Group Ltd. , the world’s largest mining company by market value. These heavy-duty trucks carry tons of ore out of the bottom of pits, and with current technology, matching the power of their diesel engines would require an enormous battery pack.
BHP has been testing a light electric vehicle over the past year at Olympic Dam, Australia’s largest underground mine, and this month it will add another. The company intends to expand the trial to other Australian mines. In Canada, workers planning BHP’s Jansen potash project are assessing how many electric vehicles could be deployed if it goes ahead.
The aim is one day to eliminate all diesel-powered machines from mine sites, Ms. Rose said.
More
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-next-frontier-for-electric-vehicles-deep-underground-11572687002?mod=mhp
Federal safety officials probe alleged Tesla battery defects
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is looking at Model S and X vehicles for model years 2012 through 2019.
November 1, 2019 at 9:20 p.m. GMT
Federal safety officials are opening an inquiry into
alleged battery defects with Tesla sedans and SUVs, the latest in a string of
safety concerns faced by the electric vehicle manufacturer.
According to a letter last week, the National Highway
Traffic Safety Administration is evaluating a petition to investigate potential
defects in Tesla batteries, particularly those for Model S and X vehicles
produced for model years 2012 through 2019.
An attorney filing a class-action lawsuit on behalf of
Tesla owners brought the petition to the agency’s Office of Defects
Investigation, citing an “alarming number of car fires” that appeared to be
spontaneous.
NHTSA asked Tesla to provide documents including consumer
complaints, reports relating to the alleged battery fires and an accounting of
software updates and certain failures related to battery cells by Nov. 28.
Failure to comply would result in fines of up to $111,642,265, according to the
agency’s letter, dated Oct. 24.
Morehttps://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2019/11/01/federal-safety-officials-probe-alleged-tesla-battery-defects/
With the exception only of the period of the gold standard, practically all governments of history have used their exclusive power to issue money to defraud and plunder the people.
Friedrich von Hayek
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished October
DJIA: 27,046 +59 Up. NASDAQ: 8,292 +67 Up. SP500: 3,038 +67 Up.
Another inconclusive month,
but all three continued to move up weakly. A buy signal. But, like the Fed, I
would await more data.
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