Baltic Dry Index. 1428 -105 Brent
Crude 62.16 Spot Gold 1469
Never ending Brexit now January 31, or maybe sooner.
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs Now in effect.
The USA v EU trade war started October 18. Now in effect.
A Tale of Two Cities
In our finacialised global casinos, it was the best of times
for everything. The USA v China trade deal “lite part one,” isn’t just back on,
but the combatants are now planning mutual tariff reduction and removals. At
least that’ the latest spin out of both combatants. If I didn’t know better I might
think that someone is gaming the stock markets.
Adding to all the euphoria, big government spending is
back.
Japan is planning yet another big spending program. The
IMF wants the EU, more specifically Germany to follow Japan. As always Italy is
ready to spend heavily. China is expected to announce more stimulus any day
now.
Even austerity GB has suddenly fallen off the wagon. Both
leading political parties in Britain have suddenly found the hidden magic money
tree, and announced big spending plans ahead of next month’s general election.
So as not to miss out this time, I have forwarded my bank
details to the Chancellor and Shadow Chancellor. I have also invested in a giant
roll of large black plastic bags from Aldi, to be ready when helicopters fly
over.
Below, bubble on! Shame about Europe sinking though.
"Price
is what you pay. Value is what you get."
Warren
Buffett.
Asian shares eases from six-month highs on U.S.-China trade uncertainty
November 8, 2019 /
12:58 AM
TOKYO/SYDNEY
(Reuters) - Asian stocks retreated from six-month highs on Friday on
uncertainty over whether and when the United States and China will seal a deal
marking a truce in their trade war that has slowed economic growth and roiled
markets.
Global markets rallied overnight on news the two countries have agreed
to roll back tariffs on each others’ goods as part of the first phase of a
trade deal.
But markets ran into profit taking during Asian hours on worries the
pact could still fall apart as an outside adviser to Trump said there was no
specific agreement for a phased rollback of the tariffs.
Multiple sources familiar with the talks said the plan faced fierce
internal opposition at the White House and from outside advisers.
MSCI’s gauge of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was off 0.2% at 536.43
after rising to 538.77, a level not seen since early May. For the week, it is
so far up more than 2%.
Tokyo’s Nikkei, which earlier in the day climbed to a 13-month high,
gave up some of the gains to be last up 0.05%. Chinese shares were firm with
the blue-chip index up 0.4%.
“The noise coming from Washington DC was not quite so upbeat, with
reports of conflicts amongst White House advisors on the merits of the plan,”
said Jeffery Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA.
“That said, despite the lack of
detail and a concrete timeline for even signing an interim trade deal, progress
does at least appear to be being made. As ever, the caveat here is the
unpredictable nature of the White House.”
E-mini futures for the S&P 500 were down 0.2% while Dow minis ticked
0.1% lower.
Overnight on Thursday, U.S. stocks pared
gains on the report of the opposition to the deal in Washington but the Dow and
S&P 500 did end at all-time closing highs. The Nasdaq missed a record close
by less than two-tenths of a point.
More
Foreign holdings of China equities at record
November 7, 2019 /
4:51 AM
SHANGHAI (Reuters)
- Foreign holdings of Chinese stocks rose to a record high by the end of the
third quarter, despite the ups and downs in a protracted trade dispute with the
United States, as Beijing further opens its financial markets to help fund
businesses.
By end-Sept, Chinese equities held by foreigners were at a record of
1.77 trillion yuan ($253.14 billion) after having risen for four straight
months, up nearly 40% in a year, the latest data from the People’s Bank of
China (PBOC) shows.
China is stepping up opening of its heavily policed, giant capital
markets, having recently scrapped investment quotas under the Qualified Foreign
Institutional Investor (QFII) scheme.
Cross-border yuan usage jumped 20% in Jan-Sept on capital market
opening, with about 6 trillion yuan of cross-border yuan payment for securities
investment, according to a central bank official.
The data also showed investors had been net buyers of A-shares through the Stock Connect linking Hong Kong and the mainland for the past five months through October, purchasing a net 158.2 billion yuan worth of A-shares.
The Stock Connect is a scheme to allow foreign investors convenient
access to the A-share market.
Robust foreign inflows into the stock market of the world’s second
largest economy come as major international index providers, including MSCI,
FTSE Russell and S&P, have begun or are stepping up inclusion of China
A-shares and bonds on global indexes.
The heaviest foreign flows were into the consumer sector, as foreign
investors hoped for China’s policy stimulus to bolster an economy hurting in a
nearly two-year long trade war with the United States.
Beijing has rolled out a raft of measures to boost domestic consumption,
which accounts for over 60% of its economy, to help shore up faltering demand.
The consumer sector remained the most preferred by the northbound flows
via the Stock Connect, with food and beverage, home appliances and healthcare
stocks making up 40% of those foreign investors’ A-share holdings by market
value, analysts at Essence Securities said in a report.
More
Japan's Abe tells cabinet to compile stimulus package to support economy
November 7, 2019 /
11:56 PM
TOKYO (Reuters) -
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Friday asked his cabinet to compile a
package of stimulus measures to support the economy and build infrastructure to
cope with large natural disasters, the government’s top spokesman said.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga told reporters that the package
will include steps to promote investment for growth through aggressive use of
fiscal investment and loan programmes.
The government will compile the package as soon as possible, though the
size of spending will depend on proposals to be made by various ministries,
Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura told a news conference after a regular
cabinet meeting.
“I’ve received an instruction from the prime minister to compile a new
economic package to guard against the chance overseas risks may hurt Japan’s
economy,” Nishimura said.
Japanese policymakers have been under pressure to fend off heightening
overseas risks with a diminishing tool-kit, as the U.S.-China trade war and
soft global demand hurt the export-reliant economy.
Finance Minister Taro Aso said the planned economic package should help
enhance productivity and achieve strong growth to overcome the pressure caused
by the declining population, which he said was the “biggest problem” Japan
faces in the long run.
Aso added that the size and scope of the stimulus still needed to be
worked out. He suggested that a supplementary budget would be compiled by the
year-end, along with an annual budget for the next fiscal year that starts in
April 2020, to ensure the economic package would be rolled out seamlessly over
a 15-month period.
More
Below, the bubble doesn’t yet extend to the
EUSSR, where a recession or worse is shaping up Perhaps they didn’t get the IMF
message about spending more on everything.
EU Warns Worst May Be Ahead as Euro-Area Resilience Wanes
By Viktoria Dendrinou
November 7, 2019, 10:00 AM GMT Updated on November 7, 2019,
10:57 AM GMT
The European Commission cut its euro-area growth and
inflation outlook amid global trade tensions and policy uncertainty, warning
that the bloc’s economic resilience won’t last forever.The EU’s executive arm sees economic momentum remaining muted through 2021, forecasting an expansion of 1.2% for that year. At 1.3%, inflation is projected to remain well below the European Central Bank goal of just below 2% over the medium term.
The updated projections, which put the Commission broadly in line with the consensus view among economists, reflect more pronounced weakness in the region, which has stumbled along with the world economy as tariffs disputes hit manufacturers and dent broader confidence. The institution warned that risks, which include the possibility of a disorderly Brexit, remain “decidedly to the downside.”
European Growth
The EU economy is predicted to expand 1.4%, euro area
1.2%
Source: Eurostat
“Adding to domestic economic shocks and policy uncertainty, the slowdown in global demand and weak trade has hit the European economy hard,” EU chief economist Marco Buti wrote in the report.
While the strength of the labor market and the resilience of the services sector have so far prevented a more broad-based deterioration of momentum, Buti warned that “this resilience cannot endure indefinitely.”
“Economic activity now looks set to slow down in a number of member states, which at first appeared immune,” he added.
More
German Industry Slump Deepens as Recovery Proves Elusive
By Yuko Takeo
November 7, 2019, 7:08 AM GMT Updated on November 7, 2019,
8:10 AM GMT
German industrial production continued to worsen, putting a
damper on recent signals of improvement in the euro area and its largest
economy.Output fell 0.6% in September, compared with economist estimates for a slide of 0.4%. Manufacturing fueled the decline, while construction and energy increased. The reading follows reports showing German factory orders rose more than expected and a gauge for private-sector activity in the euro area edging up.
Any road to recovery will be long. While Siemens AG’s Chief Executive Officer Joe Kaeser told Bloomberg TV he expects the downturn to “level out over the next six months,” the company warned that weakness in the auto and factory equipment industries will lead to a decline in some business volumes next year.
German industry output was down an annual 4.3% at the end of the third quarter, when the country probably sank into a technical recession.
More
IMF Warns Europe to Make Emergency Plan for Economic Slump
By Nikos Chrysoloras and Birgit Jennen
Updated on November 6, 2019, 2:15 PM GMT
·
IMF says economic outlook is precarious as risks
spread
·
Germany is ready to act, but doesn’t see the
need, Scholz says
A tale of two finance ministers: UK election rivals promise big spending
November 7, 2019 /
4:52 PM
LIVERPOOL/MANCHESTER,
England (Reuters) - Two men are vying to be Britain’s finance minister. One is
a former banker who hangs a portrait of free-markets champion Margaret Thatcher
on his office wall, the other is a proud socialist intent on overthrowing
capitalism.
On Thursday, Conservative incumbent Sajid Javid and the Labour Party’s
would-be finance minister John McDonnell used speeches to argue that the Dec.
12 election is a critical moment for the world’s fifth-largest economy, and
that choosing their rival will set Britain on a path to fiscal ruin.
“This election isn’t just about the next 12 months of the Brexit withdrawal
agreement, or even about the next five years. It’s about the next 10 years,”
said McDonnell.
“It’s about future generations, and the future of our country and, yes,
the future of our planet.”
But, set aside the ideological differences and for the first time in
over a decade the Conservatives and Labour are fighting an election campaign
with a similar promise: borrow, spend big, and pour billions into building
roads, schools and hospitals.
More
"Widespread
fear is your friend as an investor because it serves up bargain
purchases."
Warren
Buffett.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, China again. When China says it, it must be true. But is it a
case of buy the rumour sell the fact?
China says it has agreed with U.S. to cancel tariffs in phases
November 7, 2019 /
7:37 AM
BEIJING (Reuters)
- China and the United States have agreed to cancel in phases the tariffs
imposed during their months-long trade war, the Chinese commerce ministry said
on Thursday, without specifying a timetable.
An interim U.S.-China trade deal is widely expected to include a U.S.
pledge to scrap tariffs scheduled for Dec. 15 on about $156 billion (£121 billion)
worth of Chinese imports, including cell phones, laptop computers and toys.
Tariff cancellation was an important condition for any agreement,
ministry spokesman Gao Feng said, adding that both must simultaneously cancel
some tariffs on each other’s goods to reach a “phase one” trade deal.
“The trade war started with tariffs, and should end with the
cancellation of tariffs,” Gao told a regular news briefing.
The proportion of tariffs cancelled for both sides to reach a “phase
one” deal must be the same, but the number to be cancelled can be negotiated,
he added, without elaborating.
“In the past two weeks, the lead negotiators from both sides have had
serious and constructive discussions on resolving various core concerns
appropriately,” Gao said.
“Both sides have agreed to cancel additional tariffs in different
phases, as both sides make progress in their negotiations.”
He did not give a timeline.
In what could be another gesture to boost optimism, China’s state news
agency Xinhua reported late on Thursday that the Chinese customs and the
Ministry of Agriculture are considering removing restrictions on U.S. poultry
imports.
---- A source previously told Reuters that Chinese negotiators wanted the United States to drop 15% tariffs on about $125 billion worth of Chinese goods that took effect on Sept. 1.
They also sought relief from earlier 25% tariffs on about $250 billion
of imports, ranging from machinery and semiconductors to furniture.
A person familiar with China’s negotiating position said it was pressing
Washington to “remove all tariffs as soon as possible”.
A deal may be signed this month by U.S. President Donald Trump and
Chinese President Xi Jinping at a yet-to-be determined location.
----
One possible location was London, where the leaders could meet after a NATO
summit that Trump is due to attend from Dec. 3-4, the official said.
More
"For
the investor, a too-high purchase price for the stock of an excellent company
can undo the effects of a subsequent decade of favorable business
developments."
Warren
Buffett.
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
"Unsinkable metal" stays afloat even with holes punched in it
Michael Irving November 06, 2019
Superhydrophobic
materials, which are excellent at repelling water, can be
extremely useful for a whole range of reasons, both obvious and not-so-obvious.
They can prevent ice from
building up on surfaces, make electronics
waterproof, make ships more
efficient or keep people from peeing in public. Now
engineers have found a quirky new use for superhydrophobic materials – making
“unsinkable” metals that stay floating even when punctured.
Superhydrophobic
materials get their water-repelling properties by trapping air in complex
surfaces. These air bubbles make it hard for water to stick, so droplets
instead bounce or roll right off. But, of course, air also makes things
buoyant, so the team set out to test how superhydrophobic materials could be
used to make objects that float better.
The researchers used ultra-fast laser pulses to etch microscale and
nanoscale patterns onto the surfaces. That traps large volumes of air, making
the metals both superhydrophobic and buoyant. But the problem was that these
complex surfaces would eventually wear away due to friction in the water,
reducing the effectiveness of both of those properties.
So the researchers came up with a creative solution. They built
structures made up of two treated aluminum surfaces facing each other,
connected by a small central pole. The distance between the two plates was
carefully chosen to trap the maximum amount of air, like a waterproof
compartment in the middle.
The
end result is virtually unsinkable, the team says. After being weighed down for
two months, the structures jumped back to the surface as soon as the load was
removed. Even damaging the surfaces didn’t make them sink – the team drilled
six holes in them measuring 3 mm, and one measuring 6 mm, and the structures
stayed afloat. Apparently, enough air remains trapped in other parts of the
structure.
The researchers say that the etching technique could be used on basically any metal or other material, and the resulting unsinkable devices could have a range of potential applications. Ships and flotation devices could stay afloat even after sustaining heavy damage, and electronic monitoring devices could keep running for long periods underwater.
The work was conducted scientists at the University of Rochester and the Changchun Institute of Optics, Fine Mechanics, and Physics in China.
The research was published in the journal ACS Applied Materials and Interfaces. The team demonstrates the devices in the video below.
Another weekend and Presidents Xi and Trump have fallen
in love with each other again. Well at least for the rest of this week. What
happens next week is anyone’s guess. With market rigging like this, purchased synthetic
double options is the logical play, but only for the deep pocketed, and lion
hearted. Have a great weekend everyone. Just 47 days left to Christmas.
"On
the margin of safety, which means, don't try and drive a 9,800-pound truck over
a bridge that says it's, you know, capacity: 10,000 pounds. But go down the
road a little bit and find one that says, capacity: 15,000 pounds."
Warren
Buffett.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished October
DJIA: 27,046 +59 Up. NASDAQ: 8,292 +67 Up. SP500: 3,038 +67 Up.
Another inconclusive month,
but all three continued to move up weakly. A buy signal. But, like the Fed, I
would await more data.
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