Baltic Dry Index. 1304 -34 Brent
Crude 60.71 Spot Gold 1475
Never ending Brexit now January 31, or maybe sooner.
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs Now in effect.
The USA v EU trade war started October 18. Now in effect.
“Sometimes
you move publicly, sometimes privately. Sometimes quietly, sometimes at the top
of your voice.”
James
Baker. United States Secretary of the
Treasury under President Ronald Reagan, and U.S. Secretary of State and White
House Chief of Staff under President George H. W. Bush.
While the trade war talks between the USA and China, may
or may not be getting anywhere, each passing day brings spin and counter spin, yesterday’s
action in the US Senate might have just killed the prospect for a real trade
deal, rather than just a trade deal “lite,” part one, if even that is
now achievable.
“The Senate unanimously passed legislation aimed at protecting human rights in Hong Kong.”
China responded immediately by summoning a US embassy official to demand a stop to US meddling in China’s internal affairs.
A new game of trade war chess is opening, and it’s hard from far away London to see an early, or easy ending. In fact, it’s more likely that this greatly complicates what China will now want from any trade deal.
The Senate move increases the level of distrust in Beijing. Why make a deal with President Trump at all, if other US politicians are making game changing moves over Hong Kong? Has President Trump now over played his cards?
Below, yesterday’s and this morning’s developments.
Asia shares lost in trade labyrinth, bonds get the benefit
November 20, 2019
/ 12:27 AM
SYDNEY (Reuters) -
Asian shares lost out to safe-harbour bonds on Wednesday as Sino-U.S. trade
talks produced nothing but white noise, while concerns about a supply glut left
oil prices nursing their biggest one-day loss in seven weeks.
Figures from the American Petroleum Institute out late Tuesday showed a far larger rise in crude stocks than expected. That followed reports Russia was unlikely to deepen its cuts to crude output.
Brent crude LCOc1 futures eased another 10 cents to $60.81 a barrel, after sliding 2.6% overnight, while U.S. crude CLc1 dipped 2 cents to $55.19.
The mood in share markets was sombre with MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS off 0.7%. Japan's Nikkei .N225 fell 0.8% and Shanghai blue chips .CSI300 0.5%.
Australia’s main index sank 1.3% led by the banks after the country’s financial crime regulator alleged Westpac had breached laws on over 23 million instances and applied for civil penalties against the lender.
---- The prospects for progress on trade dimmed when China condemned a U.S. Senate measure on Hong Kong, vowing to take the steps necessary to safeguard its sovereignty and security.
The Senate unanimously passed legislation aimed at protecting human rights in Hong Kong.
Late Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump had threatened to raise tariffs further if China would not agree to a deal that he liked.
The aggressive tone unsettled Wall Street and the Dow .DJI ended down 0.36%, while the S&P 500 .SPX lost 0.06% and the Nasdaq .IXIC added 0.24%.
More
Beijing tariff demands may expand U.S.-China 'phase one' trade deal significantly
November 20, 2019
/ 4:17 AM
WASHINGTON
(Reuters) - A “phase one” trade deal between the United States and China was
supposed to be a limited agreement that would allow leaders from both countries
to claim an easy victory while soothing financial markets.
But it may morph into something bigger if U.S. President Donald Trump
agrees to Beijing’s demands to roll back existing tariffs on Chinese goods,
people familiar with the talks say.
China’s commerce ministry said this month that removing tariffs imposed
during the trade war is an important condition to any deal. The demand has U.S.
officials wondering if higher Chinese purchases of U.S. farm goods, promises of
improved access to China’s financial services industry, and pledges to protect
intellectual property are enough to ask in return.
Two people briefed on the talks said Trump has decided that rolling back
existing tariffs, in addition to cancelling a scheduled Dec. 15 imposition of
tariffs on some $156 billion (£121 billion) in Chinese consumer goods, requires
deeper concessions from China.
“The president wants the option of having a bigger deal with China.
Bigger than just the little deal” announced in October, said Derek Scissors, a
China scholar with the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.
Scissors, who consults with administration officials, said whether Trump
will agree to remove existing tariffs depends largely on whether he believes it
will benefit his re-election chances. Some White House advisers would like to
see China agree to large, specific agricultural purchases, while the U.S.
maintains existing tariffs for future leverage.
That would help
Trump’s farm belt constituency while allowing the president to campaign on
maintaining his “tough on China” stance, which holds appeal to voters in key
states like Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
But Beijing is balking at committing here to a specific amount of farm product purchases, within a particular time frame, and wants to let supply and demand dictate deals instead.
Beijing also wants Trump to eliminate the 15% tariffs on about $125 billion worth of Chinese goods imposed on Sept. 1, as well as provide some relief from the 25% tariffs imposed on an earlier, $250 billion list of industrial and consumer goods.
One Washington-based trade expert said that to achieve the $40-50 billion in annual Chinese purchases of American farm goods touted by Trump in October, he would likely have to eliminate all of the tariffs the U.S. put in place since the trade war started in 2018.
More
China summons U.S. embassy official to demand halt to Hong Kong meddling
November 20,
2019 / 5:17 AM
BEIJING (Reuters) - China made stern representations to a representative
of the U.S. embassy in Beijing on Wednesday after the Senate unanimously passed
legislation aimed at protecting human rights in Hong Kong.
In a statement, the foreign ministry said Vice Foreign Minister Ma
Zhaoxu summoned William Klein, the U.S. embassy’s minister counsellor for political
affairs.
Ma told Klein the situation in Hong Kong was part of China’s internal
affairs and demanded that the U.S. stop its meddling, the ministry added.
In other news, Japan sees opportunity in Brexit.
Japan econmin says he hopes Britain joins TPP trade pact after Brexit
November 20,
2019 / 4:33 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura said on
Wednesday that he hoped Britain would join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP),
an 11-member free trade agreement, after it leaves the European Union.
Nishimura told reporters at the Japan National Press Club that
negotiations about Britain’s entry into the free trade bloc can’t really take
place as long as it remains an EU member.
He also said he hoped Japan’s economic relations with Britain remain
strong after Brexit.
"Tariffs don't work. If anything, they hurt
the economy because if you're a typical American worker, you have a finite
amount of income to spend. If you have to spend more on the necessity products
that you need to live, you have less to spend on the services that you want to
buy. And you definitely don't have anything left over to save.”
Gary Cohn. President Trump's former
director of the National Economic Council.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Huawei again. Surely the company either is a security risk, or it isn’t.
The latest 90 day licence extension, suggests that it isn’t. But who knows?
Given President Trump plays fast and loose with security risks, Mercedes
Benz cars are apparently security risks, partnering with any US technology
corporation, or using US made parts is a security risk to non US manufacturers.
Probably not the message that was intended to be sent.
Huawei plays down impact of new U.S. license extension
November 18, 2019
/ 4:29 PM
WASHINGTON
(Reuters) - Huawei Technologies has dismissed a new 90-day extension by the
Trump administration allowing U.S. firms to continue doing business with the
Chinese company as making little difference, repeating that it was being
unfairly treated.
U.S. regulators are crafting rules on telecommunications firms that pose
national security risks. But after adding Huawei to an economic blacklist in
May, the U.S. Commerce Department has allowed it to purchase some American-made
goods.
Its 90-day license extensions aim to minimize disruption for its
customers, many of which operate networks in rural America.
Huawei said on Monday that the latest extension would not “have a
substantial impact on Huawei’s business either way”.
“This decision does not change the fact that Huawei continues to be
treated unfairly either,” the Chinese firm said.
The extension comes as the United States and China try to resolve a
trade war that has lasted for more than a year, with Huawei one of its most
visible targets.
Beijing reiterated
on Tuesday that it hopes Chinese companies will be treated fairly.
“We urge the U.S. to stop abusing export controls to discriminate
against the firms of another country in the name of national security, and to
stop politicizing a trade problem,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said
on Tuesday.
Reuters on Sunday reported the 90-day extension after the administration
of President Donald Trump had initially planned a two-week reprieve, but ran
into bureaucratic issues.
“The Temporary General License extension will allow carriers to continue
to service customers in some of the most remote areas of the United States who
would otherwise be left in the dark,” U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said.
“The Department will continue to rigorously monitor sensitive technology
exports to ensure that our innovations are not harnessed by those who would
threaten our national security,” Ross said in a statement on Monday.
The U.S. Commerce Department added Huawei to its “Entity List” in May,
concluding it was engaged in activities “contrary to U.S. national security or
foreign policy interests.”
Huawei said the decision to add it to the list had caused more harm to
the U.S. than to Huawei.
“This has done significant economic harm to the American companies with
which Huawei does business,” it added.
More
“If
you're not gonna pull the trigger, don't point the gun.”
James
Baker. United States Secretary of the Treasury under President Ronald Reagan,
and U.S. Secretary of State and White House Chief of Staff under President
George H. W. Bush.
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Metamorphosis In Fukushima — Installing 11 Solar Power Plants & 10 Wind Power Plants
November 17th, 2019 by Cynthia Shahan
How does one renew an area devastated by nuclear waste? I
think of brilliant Akira Kurosawa’s film Dreams. One
of the dreams depicts the horror and abyss after the fallout of a nuclear
accident.Indeed, in real life, there are farmlands in Japan that are ruined, land that cannot be cultivated anymore. The Nikkei Asian Review reports mountainous areas where population outflows continue.
Yet, in that film, renewable energy is also depicted. And this is relevant with the present metamorphosis of Fukushima.
In land that is too altered, destroyed, and toxic after the 2011 meltdown at the Fukushima Nuclear Dai-ichi Power Station in Japan, not much can be done. The installation of windmills and solar panels is a possibility in some places, though.
It seems a short time has passed since the earthquake and tsunami that broke open what should not be vulnerable, leading to horrific consequences. Eight years after Japan survived one of our world’s worst disasters, the area is still struggling to recover.
One are of Japan is morphing again out of death to life via clean, renewable energy. The Nikkei Asian Review reports planning for 11 solar power plants and 10 wind power plants in a prefecture once considered lost. The combined renewable energy investments will provide ~600 megawatts of power generation capacity, equivalent to two-thirds of a nuclear power plant in the area.
The Nikkei Asian Review states, “The total cost is expected to be in the ballpark of 300 billion yen, or $2.75 billion, until the fiscal year ending in March 2024. The government-owned Development Bank of Japan and private lender Mizuho Bank are among a group of financiers that have prepared a line of credit to support part of the construction cost.”
The plans also include the anticipation of an 80-km wide grid within Fukushima to connect the generated power with the power transmission network of Tokyo Electric Power Co. The Nikkei Asian Review adds that that part of the project is expected to cost 29 billion yen ($266.6 million).
There has been an ongoing shift towards clean energy in Japan in the past decade, as in most places but accelerated a bit more due to the Fukushima disaster. The Japan Times clearly foresees, as the Fukushima prefecture announced, a goal of getting 40 percent of its electricity from renewables by 2020, two-thirds by 2030, and 100 percent by 2040.
“With technological support from the institute, a support program for local businesses in the quake- and tsunami-damaged areas is being carried out and human resources are being developed in collaboration with local universities. As a result, there have been 107 joint research projects implemented and nine successful examples of commercialization,” said Masaru Nakaiwa, the institute’s director-general, in an email interview with The Japan Times.
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/11/17/metamorphosis-in-fukushima-installing-11-solar-power-plants-10-wind-power-plants/
Milton Friedman once put
it, if you’re spending your own money on yourself, you care about price and
quality. If you’re spending someone else’s money on yourself, you only care
about quality. If you’re spending your own money on someone else, you care only
about price. And if you’re spending someone else’s money on someone else, you
don’t care about either.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished October
DJIA: 27,046 +59 Up. NASDAQ: 8,292 +67 Up. SP500: 3,038 +67 Up.
Another inconclusive month,
but all three continued to move up weakly. A buy signal. But, like the Fed, I
would await more data.
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