Baltic Dry Index. 1255 -05 Brent
Crude 63.55 Spot Gold 1466
Never ending Brexit now January 31, or maybe sooner.
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs Now in effect.
The USA v EU trade war started October 18. Now in effect.
The Boy who cried wolf.
The tale concerns a shepherd boy who
repeatedly tricks nearby villagers into thinking a wolf is attacking his town's
flock. When a wolf actually does appear and the boy again calls for help, the
villagers believe that it is another false alarm and the sheep are eaten by the
wolf.
Aesop.
The USA v China trade war is fast resembling Aesop’s famous
fable. Hedge funds and other professional gamblers are fast getting tired of
whipsaw losses from all the conflicting spin and hype.
Meanwhile nothing happens, merely the global economy
sinks into more massive unrepayable debt, and staggers on towards the next
recession.
Below, today’s installment of the Boy Who Cried Wolf.
Asian shares recover from three-week lows but trade deal worries limit gains
November 22, 2019
/ 12:32 AM
SHANGHAI
(Reuters) - Asian equities posted a mild bounce on Friday from three-week lows
hit the previous day, with persistent worries over the status of trade
negotiations between China and the United States limiting the gains.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS
climbed 0.12%, recovering from Thursday’s drop of as much as 1.4% that took it
to its lowest level since Oct. 30 on concerns that U.S. legislation on Hong
Kong threatened to undermine trade talks between the world’s two largest
economies.
Those concerns linger, with U.S. President Donald Trump expected to sign
into law two bills backing protesters in Hong Kong after the U.S. House of
Representatives voted 417 to 1 for the “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy
Act”, which the Senate had passed unanimously a day earlier.
“If he’s going to be forced to sign it, then it brings another (element)
of uncertainty to this phase one trade deal, which then pushes back into next
year,” said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at GAIN Capital in Singapore.
But Simpson said that in the absence of major news on trade, rangebound
market moves are “quite reflective of the small headlines coming through”.
Chinese blue-chip shares .CSI300, which had opened higher, turned negative later in the morning, and were last down 0.82%.
Australian shares gained 0.55% and Japan's Nikkei .N225 was up 0.43%.
Worries that a "phase one" trade deal between the United States and China might not occur until next year had weighed on investor sentiment on Wall Street overnight, pulling the S&P 500 .SPX down 0.16% to 3,103.54, the Dow Jones .DJI down 0.2% to 27,766.29 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC 0.24% lower to 8,506.21.
The losses, though, were tempered by China saying it was willing to work
with the United States to resolve core trade concerns, and a report in the Wall
Street Journal that China has invited top U.S. trade negotiators for a new
round of face-to-face talks in Beijing.
“I was ready to give up on a trade deal yesterday. But it seems the
Chinese haven’t so I, we, mustn’t,” Greg McKenna, strategist at McKenna Macro,
said in a note.
But analysts at ANZ said that whipsawing hopes over a deal were starting
to wear on investors in the 16th month of the U.S.-China trade war.
“It’s fair to say that some signs of trade-headline fatigue are emerging
in markets,” they said in a note.
More
Next, more China. President Xi says that he wants a trade
deal part one with America, and doesn’t want a trade war, but if Trump’s insists
on one China will fight.
To no one’s surprise, China revises its GDP higher. Shame
that no one anywhere believes China’s figures, least of all in Beijing. Rather
like modern America, the figures are massaged to get to the result the politicians
desire.
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
Mark Twain
China's Xi says wants to work out 'phase one' trade deal with U.S.
November 22,
2019 / 6:11 AM
BEIJING (Reuters) - China wants to work out an initial trade agreement
with the United States and has been trying to avoid a trade war, but it is not
afraid to retaliate when necessary, President Xi Jinping said on Friday.
“We want to work for a ‘phase one’ agreement on the basis of mutual
respect and equality,” Xi told representatives of an international forum,
according to a pool report.
“When necessary we will fight back, but we have been working actively to
try not to have a trade war. We did not initiate this trade war and this is not
something we want.”
Xi was at the Great Hall of the People responding to questions from
representatives of the New Economy Forum organized by Bloomberg LP in Beijing.
China revises up nominal 2018 GDP, moves step closer to doubling size of economy
November 22,
2019 / 2:34 AM
BEIJING (Reuters) - China on Friday revised
up its nominal 2018 gross domestic product (GDP) by 2.1% to 91.93 trillion yuan
(£10.12 trillion), keeping it on track to achieving its goal of doubling the
size of its economy by 2020 from 2010.
The revisions showed that the services sector contributed more to GDP in
2018 than the original data had indicated, the National Bureau of Statistics
said in a statement.
The change in the size of 2018 GDP will not significantly influence the
calculation for the 2019 growth rate, the statistics bureau said.
The world’s second-biggest economy is growing at its slowest pace in
almost three decades, pressured in part by a trade war with the United States.
China routinely revises its annual GDP data. Days before GDP data for
2018 was released in January, the statistics bureau cut its final 2017 growth
figure to 6.8% from 6.9%.
China’s fourth National Economic Census, released on Wednesday, included
“richer” data points that showed more business entities and a bigger total
asset base in 2018 than assumed under earlier GDP estimates, Li Xiaochao,
deputy head of the statistics bureau, told Reuters earlier this week.
Revisions to historical GDP figures will also be made, Li told
reporters.
Nominal GDP includes changes in prices due to inflation, so it is
usually higher than adjusted, or real GDP.
---- Despite “NBS stressing that the current round of revisions is the result of the census uncovering previously unrecorded activity, it’s hard to ignore the fact that it will also help them meet official growth targets,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, Senior China Economist at Capital Economics, in a note.
In previous revisions real growth has almost always been revised
upwards, he said.
Analysts say that without further information from the NBS, it’s hard to
calculate the impact of the latest adjustments on the 2018’s real GDP or the
GDP growth rate for that year.
But a rough estimate of an adjusted real GDP growth in 2018 might be
8.9%, compared to an original reading of 6.6%, said Chaoping Zhu, Global Market
Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, in a note.
More
Finally the BBC piles on the OECD’s future economic
slowdown from man-made, new religion, climate change bandwagon. Well the
extreme left-wing, socialism promoting BBC would, wouldn’t they.
New warning on global economic slowdown
·
21 November 2019
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development - the OECD - says in a new report that prospects have steadily deteriorated.
It forecasts continued growth of around 3% but warns that the risks have increased.
The report says a lack of direction on climate policy is holding back business investment.
Although the OECD is not forecasting a recession, it is a decidedly downbeat report.
There are calls for action from governments to address challenges, some of which have both long term and more immediate consequences.
Climate change is perhaps the most striking example.
The OECD says extreme weather events could lead to disruption of economic activity and could inflict long lasting damage on capital and land. They could also lead to what the report calls disorderly migration flows.
Insufficient policy action could increase the frequency of such events.
There is clearly a long term challenge for governments in addressing these issues, but the OECD says that there is already an impact on business investment.
In many countries it is investment and trade that has been at the centre of weakening economic performance.
More
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50502021
Below, the scientific
reality of never getting to a carbon neutral world, no matter how much the new
religionists spend of other people’s money. Never reported on the dishonest
BBC.
The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
Executive
Summary
A
movement has been growing for decades to replace hydrocarbons, which
collectively supply 84% of the world’s energy. It began with the fear that we
were running out of oil. That fear has since migrated to the belief that,
because of climate change and other environmental concerns, society can no
longer tolerate burning oil, natural gas, and coal—all of which have turned out
to be abundant.
So
far, wind, solar, and batteries—the favored alternatives to
hydrocarbons—provide about 2% of the world’s energy and 3% of America’s.
Nonetheless, a bold new claim has gained popularity: that we’re on the cusp of
a tech-driven energy revolution that not only can, but inevitably will, rapidly
replace all hydrocarbons.
This
“new energy economy” rests on the belief—a centerpiece of the Green New Deal
and other similar proposals both here and in Europe—that the technologies of
wind and solar power and battery storage are undergoing the kind of disruption
experienced in computing and communications, dramatically lowering costs and
increasing efficiency. But this core analogy glosses over profound differences,
grounded in physics, between systems that produce energy and those that produce
information.
In
the world of people, cars, planes, and factories, increases in consumption,
speed, or carrying capacity cause hardware to expand, not shrink. The energy
needed to move a ton of people, heat a ton of steel or silicon, or grow a ton
of food is determined by properties of nature whose boundaries are set by laws
of gravity, inertia, friction, mass, and thermodynamics—not clever software.
This
paper highlights the physics of energy to illustrate why there is no
possibility that the world is undergoing— or can undergo—a near-term transition
to a “new energy economy.”
More
Google "The New Energy Economy:An
Exercise in Magical Thinking," for the science of why not.
21st
century adage: Is that true, or did you hear it on the BBC?
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, what’s wrong with this? I
think we all know the answer, just not when it all blows up. Still with the
longest, if shallowest, debt fuelled recovery on record.
When it does all blow up, I
suspect that it will take out the massively failing fiat currency, financial
system. It’s just not working for anyone outside of the financialised economy
anymore. Not for nothing are the central banks buying, and repatriating, gold
bullion again.
When the big beasts of the US
hedge fund industry, start pulling out of the public hedge fund industry to go
private, something’s amiss in the Fed’s latest stock market bubble, and likely
to be happening next year.
“Louis Bacon joins Leon Cooperman, Michael Platt, David
Tepper and a raft of other big hedge fund names in converting to a family
office.”
Powell's Fantasy: The Economy Should Grow Faster Than Debt
by Tyler Durden
Thu, 11/21/2019 - 08:4
In recent testimony to Congress’s Joint Economic Committee, Jerome
Powell stated:
“The debt is growing faster than the economy — that’s unsustainable.
It’s not the Fed’s job to say how the government should cut the deficit, but we
need to get the economy to grow faster than the debt. Otherwise, future
generations will be paying more of their taxes to cover the government’s debt
costs than for other things like health care, etc.
I think the new normal now is low interest rates, low inflation and
probably lower growth. Even with the lower interest on its debt, the government
still needs to reduce its budget deficit.”
Interestingly, these were not the first time we heard these words. In
2012, then-Fed Chair Ben Bernanke told Congress:
“Rising federal budget deficits are posing a significant threat to the
U.S. economy and are likely to cause a crisis if not brought under
control. Having a large and increasing level of government debt
relative to national income runs the risk of serious economic
consequences. Over the longer term, the current trajectory of
federal debt threatens to crowd out private capital formation and thus reduce
productivity growth.”
Looking back now, it was clear that Bernanke was correct. Over the last 30-years,
the rising level of Federal Debt relative to National Income has retarded
Productivity in the U.S.
---- Of course, just as is the case today, Congress didn’t listen then either. Just a couple of months later in July, 2012, as Congress was feuding over a “debt ceiling limit funding deal,” Ben Bernanke testified before the Senate Banking committee stating that “fiscal policy” needed to take over for “monetary policy.”
The response from Congress?
“Given the political realities of this year’s election, I
believe the Fed is the only game in town. I would urge you, now more
than ever, to take whatever actions are warranted. So, get to work, Mr.
Chairman.” – Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y.
Almost 8-years later, with the deficit once again approaching $1
Trillion, the Federal Reserve remains the “only game in town.” Such
was the case following Jerome Powell’s plea to Congress to enact some
responsibility, but all Wall Street heard was: “More QE is coming.”
Such should not be surprising. Regardless of political affiliation, the
idea of “fiscal responsibility” in Washington has been
replaced by all-out “socialist” leanings. However, you are
mistaken if you believe this to be a new mentality in Washington.
It isn’t.
Like a “frog being boiled in water,” the temperature
has been slowly rising for the last 20+ years as deficits grew to support
unbridled largesse in Washington.
---- What
is most important to understand is that this surging deficit is occurring
during the longest economic expansion on record. Naturally,
given the lack of immediate negative consequences, many have come to believe
that debts, and deficits, don’t matter.
---- However, the evidence, should those in Washington D.C. care to examine, is using debt to “pull forward consumption” has had long-term negative effects on economic prosperity.
The current expansion is the weakest in U.S. history.
---- With the government already running a massive deficit, and expected to issue another $1.5-2 Trillion in debt during the next fiscal year, the efficacy of “deficit spending” in terms of its impact to economic growth has been greatly marginalized.
John Maynard Keynes’ was correct in his economic theory. In order for
deficit spending to be effective, the “payback” from investments
being made must yield a higher rate of return than the debt used to fund it.
More
All you need in this life is ignorance and confidence, and then
success is sure.
Mark Twain
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Bill Gates-backed Heliogen’s solar ‘breakthrough’ could replace fossil fuels in steel and other big-polluting industries
Published: Nov 20, 2019 3:05 p.m. ET
Heliogen, a clean energy company supported by Bill Gates
and Patrick Soon-Shiong, this week claimed it has achieved a breakthrough in
concentrated solar energy that could replace the fossil fuels used in
heavy-emissions processes such as making cement, steel, glass and
petrochemicals.Heliogen’s solar technology can now exceed temperatures greater than 1,000 degrees Celsius, and be sold commercially, the company says. One analysis called the development the first solar high-heat “oven” for these key industrial purposes.
Vox termed the announcement by a California-based Heliogen that’s been operating largely in secret before Tuesday’s rollout a “genuine innovation.” Vox describes how the technology, based on concentrating solar power, or CSP, works.
The zero-carbon swap to solar could dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions in these industries as electricity, transportation and buildings are three of the biggest emitters, EPA data shows. Cement alone accounts for 7% of global CO2 emissions, according to the International Energy Agency.
The technology, which directs mirrors to reflect the sun to a single point, is not new, but achieving such temperatures consistently, boosted by artificial intelligence in directing the mirrors, marks the major achievement. Previous commercial-sized concentrating solar thermal systems have been designed to reach temperatures of up to only 565 degrees Celsius, which is useful for power generation but insufficient for many industrial processes. Their required higher temperatures have traditionally been reached only through burning fossil fuels, including oil and natural gas. Oman even uses such solar technology, at the previously achieved temperatures, to power its oil drilling.
“We’ve made great strides in deploying clean energy in our electricity system. But electricity accounts for less than a quarter of global energy demand. Heliogen represents a technological leap forward in addressing the other 75% of energy demand: the use of fossil fuels for industrial processes and transportation,” said Bill Gross, Heliogen CEO, in a release. “With low-cost, ultra-high temperature process heat, we have an opportunity to make meaningful contributions to solving the climate crisis.”
More
Another weekend and more weekend hype on that easy to win
trade war, the British general election, where all political parties have
stumbled on a money tree forest, and more fake news spinning from the “never-Trumpers”
in Washington and US media. You couldn’t make this sort of fantasy world up. Have
a great weekend everyone. My last weekend in my 60s.
People never lie so
much as after a hunt, during a war or before an election.
Otto von Bismarck
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished October
DJIA: 27,046 +59 Up. NASDAQ: 8,292 +67 Up. SP500: 3,038 +67 Up.
Another inconclusive month,
but all three continued to move up weakly. A buy signal. But, like the Fed, I
would await more data.
No comments:
Post a Comment