Baltic Dry Index. 1675 -22 Brent
Crude 62.225 Spot Gold 1504
Never ending Brexit now January 31, or maybe sooner.
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs Now in effect.
The USA v EU trade war started October 18. Now in effect.
There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.
John
Kenneth Galbraith
In US and global stocks, it’s very clearly bubble on! And
it’s official. ZIRP and NIRP will be maintained until at least November 3rd
2020. President Trump’s re-election prospects have never looked better.
That this will all end in another crash like 2008 is a
given, but until the music stops, the game of musical chairs is the only game
in town. Dance on.
At some point ahead we will likely repeat 1929, but no
one anywhere on planet earth, is concerned with anything but the present now.
All news is good news again. Get with the WeWork bubble. You gotta grabs yours
while the grabbing’s good. I think I know how Noah felt while he was building
his Ark.
Below, euphoria rules, ok! But for how long? November 3rd
2020 is almost a year away. No one is yet listening to the horrible grinding
sound coming from the engine of the global economy. As with all bubbles, a
whole lot of wealth gets mal-invested and destroyed.
To infinity and beyond!
President Trump and Jay Powell.
Stocks, U.S. Futures Rise, Bonds Slip on Trade: Markets Wrap
By Andreea Papuc
Updated on November 5, 2019, 6:11 AM GMT
·
·
Ten-year Treasury yields advance for a third
session
Japanese shares led Asian gains as Tokyo traders caught up after a
Monday holiday, with more modest advances in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Seoul. The
Dow Jones Industrial Average claimed its first all-time high since July on
Monday, joining other U.S. benchmarks. The yen slipped amid the risk-on mood.
European equity futures climbed.
More
China presses Trump for more tariff roll-backs in 'phase one' trade deal
November 4, 2019
/ 9:32 PM
The deal, which may be signed later this month by Trump and Chinese
President Xi Jinping at a yet-to-be determined location, is widely expected to
include a U.S. pledge to scrap tariffs scheduled for Dec. 15 on about $156
billion worth of Chinese imports, including cell phones, laptop computers and
toys.
A U.S. official said the fate of the Dec. 15 tariffs is being considered
as part of negotiations and a potential signing trip this month.
Another source briefed on the talks said Chinese negotiators want
Washington to drop 15% tariffs on about $125 billion worth of Chinese goods
that went into effect on Sept. 1. They are also seeking relief from earlier 25%
tariffs on about $250 billion of imports from machinery and semiconductors to
furniture.
A person familiar with Beijing’s negotiating position said that China is
continuing to press Washington to “remove all tariffs as soon as possible.”
China’s request to remove the Sept. 1 duties was earlier reported by
Politico, citing sources. The Financial Times newspaper also reported the White
House was considering whether to roll back the Sept. 1 tariffs, which cover
some clothing items, flat-screen televisions, smart speakers and Bluetooth
headphones.
Ralph Winnie, director of the China program at the Eurasia Center, said
wrapping up the interim trade pact would provide a boost to both the U.S. and
Chinese economies, while handing Trump an important win among farmers - a core
constituency.
More
U.S. may roll back tariffs on $112 billion in Chinese imports: report
By
Mike
Murphy Published: Nov 4, 2019 11:13
p.m. ET
U.S. officials are
considering removing tariffs on $112 billion in Chinese goods as a concession
to seal a "phase one" trade deal, the Financial Times reported late Monday. The 15% tariffs on
items such as clothing, appliances and flat-screen monitors were put into
effect on Sept. 1. The FT said the
U.S. would expect something in return, such
as tougher intellectual-property protections for U.S. companies. The Wall Street Journal reported similar news Monday night,
saying that removing tariffs would likely be a part of any initial trade deal
and that both countries have agreed in principle to the deal. The U.S. has
already put off tariff hikes from 25% to 30% on $250 billion of Chinese imports
that were to have taken effect in October, and has suggested it may put off
tariffs on another $160 billion in Chinese goods set to take effect Dec. 15 if
an initial trade deal is signed.
The ‘mother of all bubbles’ could blow up the economy if profits don’t improve, warns Blackstone strategist
Published: Nov 4, 2019 6:56 a.m. ET
“When we try to pick out anything by itself, we find it
hitched to everything else in the universe,” wrote famed naturalist John Muir
more than a century ago, referring to an epiphany he had while hiking in
California’s Yosemite Valley.In our call of the day, Blackstone BX, +1.88% strategist Joseph Zidle offers a similar take, but with dollar signs instead of granite cliffs.
“At the end of any economic cycle, we often get warnings that appear to be unrelated,” he writes in a note. “It’s in hindsight that we realize that they were not at all random.” We saw this during the housing bubble, he added, and we’re seeing it now.
Among the recent troubles he thinks are
connected are repo market woes, negative-yielding debt, global trade conflicts
and collapsing manufacturing. And every cycle ends with excess.
The “mother of all bubbles” in the sovereign debt market, Zidle says, is
the catalyst that will likely trigger the next recession. He expects that to
happen between mid-2020 and the end of 2021.
The good news for investors is a rise in quarterly profits that will
boost markets in the near term.
“The first three quarters of 2019 faced the
toughest [comparables] since this profits cycle started in 2016,” he writes.
“Earnings are flat this year. Next year, year-over-year comps should be
easier.”
Zidle points out that stocks tend to rise until about six months before
a recession, meaning there could be some market gains left. “Cyclicals and
low-quality stocks should outperform in an improving earnings environment; new
highs in equity markets will likely be set.”
More
Yet, for some reason, smart money is now betting/hedging
on gold.
Gold Demand Trends Q3 2019
|
|
|
Mmore
And in unicorn land, the sick just keep getting sicker.
More cash transfusuins needed urgently.
Zombiecorns! Juul, WeWork, and others stumble onward
November
1, 2019
They don't
necessarily need brains, just cash.
A lack of discipline in private markets created hundreds of billion-dollar unicorns, but with sanity prevailing in public markets, a new horde of "zombiecorns" has begun to form.
A lack of discipline in private markets created hundreds of billion-dollar unicorns, but with sanity prevailing in public markets, a new horde of "zombiecorns" has begun to form.
WeWork and Juul are
the latest and most notable examples, but there are several others. These
highly-valued and money-losing startups may have a business model that is only
capable of burning cash, or face plateauing growth from scandal, regulation, or
competition. Some over-valued unicorns are attempting to focus on profitability
and grow into their valuations, or accept an IPO downround, but the zombiecorns
appear to have fewer options. In 2020, we expect more VCs attempt to quietly
exit their positions without the spotlight of an IPO, be it a sale, SPAC
acquisition, or direct listing.
WeWork: Once valued as
high as $47 billion, WeWork's billions in losses and ridiculous governance
practices have made it the prime zombiecorn, a spectacle witnessed by
investors, employees, landlords, and tenants. With the IPO door slammed shut,
the company fired its founder-CEO, began laying off hundreds of workers, and
accepted a multi-billion dollar rescue/salvage package from SoftBank.
Juul: Tobacco giant Altria paid $12.8 billion for a 35% stake, valuing the company at $38 billion. But after a surge in vaping illnesses and Juul's growing popularity at high schools, the FDA banned flavors representing 80% of the company's sales. The CEO resigned, and Altria wrote down its investment by $4.5 billion.
Other Zombiecorns?
Palantir: Valued at $20 billion in 2015, Palantir was reportedly pursuing a 2019 IPO worth $40 billion, but the unprofitable data mining company would likely face investor pushback in this environment. It is now turning again to private markets, with an IPO rumored as late as 2023.
Vice Media and Buzzfeed were valued at $5.7 billion and $1.7 billion, respectively, but slowing growth has caused the digital media companies to lay off hundreds of employees.
Zenefits: This insurance and benefits software provider was one of the original zombiecorns, valued at $4.5 billion in 2015, before its founder-CEO stepped down amid scandal. Its valuation was slashed, and Zenefits laid off half of its staff. Some four years later, the company may have recovered, giving hope to other zombiecorns.
Robinhood achieved a $7.6 billion valuation in July, growing rapidly by offering zero-fee trading, but it faces an uphill battle now that Schwab, TD Ameritrade, and Fidelity have also dropped their commissions to zero.
While SmileDirectClub (SDC) managed to go public at a $9 billion market cap, its nearly -50% drop since the September IPO may cause trouble for other direct-to-consumer brands in competitive spaces.
Juul: Tobacco giant Altria paid $12.8 billion for a 35% stake, valuing the company at $38 billion. But after a surge in vaping illnesses and Juul's growing popularity at high schools, the FDA banned flavors representing 80% of the company's sales. The CEO resigned, and Altria wrote down its investment by $4.5 billion.
Other Zombiecorns?
Palantir: Valued at $20 billion in 2015, Palantir was reportedly pursuing a 2019 IPO worth $40 billion, but the unprofitable data mining company would likely face investor pushback in this environment. It is now turning again to private markets, with an IPO rumored as late as 2023.
Vice Media and Buzzfeed were valued at $5.7 billion and $1.7 billion, respectively, but slowing growth has caused the digital media companies to lay off hundreds of employees.
Zenefits: This insurance and benefits software provider was one of the original zombiecorns, valued at $4.5 billion in 2015, before its founder-CEO stepped down amid scandal. Its valuation was slashed, and Zenefits laid off half of its staff. Some four years later, the company may have recovered, giving hope to other zombiecorns.
Robinhood achieved a $7.6 billion valuation in July, growing rapidly by offering zero-fee trading, but it faces an uphill battle now that Schwab, TD Ameritrade, and Fidelity have also dropped their commissions to zero.
While SmileDirectClub (SDC) managed to go public at a $9 billion market cap, its nearly -50% drop since the September IPO may cause trouble for other direct-to-consumer brands in competitive spaces.
When the bubble bursts, we don’t know. What causes it to
burst, we don’t know either. That it will burst, we all know, but few during
the bubble care, for most we are still in the incredible wonders of the
present,
In any great organization it is far, far safer to be wrong with the majority than to be right alone.
John Kenneth Galbraith
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, the interesting case of the Canadian “hamburgler.” A warning to
all who use apps to order food. Today, Canada tomorrow the world. Probably a first
Canada would rather do without.
Probably, as the obese “hamburgler” grows out of his teens and moves out
of his parent’s basement, the “hamburgler” will probably go higher up the food
chain, hacking Montreal’s Schwartz’s Deli or Gibby’s steak joint.
Probably hacking a high-end food chain like Ruth’s Chris
Steak House is best. That way, if the calories don’t get him, can he
probably live like a King all across North America for a few years.
I can’t remember the last time I used a McDonald’s, though it was
probably in America driving from Palm Beach Gardens to New York City and back.
My Dalmatian Spot really liked their chicken nuggets.
'What a mess': McDonald's customers frustrated as 'Hamburglar' hacks more app accounts
Company said incidents are rare and it's 'confident in the security of our app'
Sophia Harris · CBC News · Posted: Nov 03,
2019 4:00 AM ET | Last Updated: November 3
The so-called Hamburglar is still at large, hacking customers' McDonald's app accounts and ordering food on their dime. For some victims, their troubles didn't end there as they were unhappy with how McDonald's handled their cases.
"What a mess," said Deborah Kelly of Peterborough, Ont. She's unimpressed after the fast-food giant mistakenly blamed mystery charges on her account on a technical glitch, not a fraudster.
Since February, CBC News has heard from more than 20 people who allege a fraudster somehow infiltrated their McDonald's phone app — which was linked to their debit or credit card — and ordered meals for pickup.
In one case in April, more than $2,000 worth of meals was ordered at different McDonald's restaurants in Montreal and all charged to one unsuspecting customer in Toronto.
In an email to CBC News, McDonald's acknowledged the problem, but said it's rare and that customers' personal information is safe.
"While we are aware that some isolated incidents involving unauthorized transactions have occurred, we remain confident in the security of our app," said McDonald's Canada spokesperson Ryma Boussoufa.
She recommended customers use unique passwords and frequently change them as a precaution.
'Not handled well'
On Oct. 16, someone used Kelly's app to order $34.87 worth of Chicken McNuggets and burgers for pickup at a McDonald's in Toronto — about 140 kilometres from her home. When she reported the case, a customer service rep assured her it was just a glitch."She said, 'The good news is you don't have to report your credit card as compromised,'" Kelly said. "She was really framing it in a really positive way."
Kelly said she spoke with two McDonald's employees who both insisted her account hadn't been compromised. She was also advised to request a refund for the charges from her credit card provider, which she did.
BC News asked McDonald's why it classified Kelly's case as a
"glitch." The company didn't respond, but called Kelly later that
same day to apologize and explain that her account had likely been infiltrated
by a fraudster.
"They shouldn't have been calling it a glitch," Mike Powers,
head of guest relations at McDonald's Canada, told Kelly in a phone call
that she recorded.
"It was not handled well," he said.
Powers also suggested that fraudsters are infiltrating McDonald's app
accounts by somehow cracking customers' passwords.
After Kelly discovered the mystery charges, she had changed her app's
password as a precaution, but she was surprised to learn from Powers that she
should also change other online accounts, which have the same password.
"Because they assured me I hadn't been hacked, that wasn't a
measure I took initially," said a disappointed Kelly. "I don't trust
anything McDonald's tells me now."
More
Why did I take up stealing? To live better, to own things I couldn't afford, to acquire this good taste that you now enjoy and which I should be very reluctant to give up.
Cary Grant. To Catch A Thief.
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Three-story water battery cuts university's energy usage by 40 percent
Nick Lavars November 03, 2019
The
University of the Sunshine Coast (USC) in Queensland, Australia, is on a
mission to become completely carbon neutral by 2025, and a huge early addition
to its energy systems is boding well for these lofty ambitions. Switched on in
September, a new three-story “water battery” is already producing enough juice
to power the campus’ air conditioning systems, reducing its reliance on the
grid by more than 40 percent.
In pursuit of its climate-neutral goals, USC teamed up with private company Veolia to draw up a new clean energy solution for its buildings. Looking to make the most of the region’s abundant sunshine and take a bite out of the grid energy used for air conditioning, which accounts for 40 percent of its overall usage, the two came up with solution they’ve dubbed the “water battery.”
“Air conditioning accounts for 40 percent of our daily energy usage, so by eliminating this we are taking a major step towards our carbon neutral goal,” Professor Hill said back in August when the system was first announced.
It is in essence a huge thermal energy storage system. It makes use of 6,000 solar panels installed on the campus’ rooftops and carparks that make up a 2.1-megawatt photovoltaic system. The energy generated by this solar system is then used to cool 4.5 megaliters of water resting inside a three-story tank. This cooled water is then used for the campus’ air conditioning systems, and to great effect.
According to Veolia, the system is reducing the carbon footprint of the university by 42 percent. This rapid and dramatic impact has even earned it and the USC team some international acclaim, with the water battery winning the “Out of the Box” category at Iceland’s 2019 Global District Energy Climate Awards, announced last week.
“The system was switched on in September and is now delivering 2.1
megawatts of power and we estimate that we will save more than AU$100 million
(US$69 million) in energy costs over the next 25 years,” says USC Chief
Operating Officer Dr Scott Snyder. “Another benefit is that we are able to take
our students to visit the system and teach them about innovation and finding
cleaner energy solutions for the future.”
Further to these huge cost savings, the system is expected to prevent
more than 92,000 tonnes of CO2 emissions over the coming 25 years, the equivalent
output of 525 typical Australian homes in the same timeframe, according to USC.
The video below provides an overview of the project.
An Energy Breakthrough Could Store Solar Power for Decades
Researchers in Sweden have created a
molecule that offers a way to trap heat from the sun.
November 4, 2019, 5:01 AM GMT
For decades, scientists have sought
an affordable and effective way of capturing, storing, and releasing solar
energy. Researchers in Sweden say they have a solution that would allow the
power of the sun’s rays to be used across a range of consumer
applications—heating everything from homes to vehicles.
Scientists at Chalmers
University of Technology
in Gothenburg have figured out how to harness the energy and keep it in reserve
so it can be released on demand in the form of heat—even decades after it was
captured. The innovations include an energy-trapping molecule, a storage system
that promises to outperform traditional batteries, at least when it comes to
heating, and an energy-storing laminate coating that can be applied to windows
and textiles. The breakthroughs, from a team led by researcher Kasper
Moth-Poulsen,
have garnered praise within the scientific community. Now comes the real test:
whether Moth-Poulsen can get investors to back his technology and take it to
market.
BOTTOM LINE - Effectively harnessing
the sun’s rays is key to addressing climate change. Swedish researchers say
their system can help commercialize solar energy.
More
Remember
that there is nothing stable in human affairs; therefore avoid undue elation in
prosperity, or undue depression in adversity.
Socrates
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished October
DJIA: 27,046 +59 Up. NASDAQ: 8,292 +67 Up. SP500: 3,038 +67 Up.
Another inconclusive month,
but all three continued to move up weakly. A buy signal. But, like the Fed, I
would await more data.
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