Baltic Dry Index. 1378 -50 Brent
Crude 61.96 Spot Gold 1463
Never ending Brexit now January 31, or maybe sooner.
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs Now in effect.
The USA v EU trade war started October 18. Now in effect.
I knew of course, there must be a limit to
the advances and an end to the crazy buying of A. O. T – Any Old Thing – and I
got bearish. But every time I sold I lost money, and if it hadn’t been that I
ran darn quick I ‘d have lost a heap more.
Jesse Livermore
An interesting week lies ahead. Stocks pause in Asia as
Hong Kong continues to commit corporate suicide. Not that it’s impacting the latest US stock bubble.
Deutsche Bank warns of the 20 biggest risks to 2020. The
biggest surprise, a potential DB bankruptcy isn’t on their list.
The WSJ reports that the SEC was unhappy with WeWork’s
figures going into that infamous pulled IPO. It’s not hard to see why.
Planet Mercury transits later today, across the face of
the sun, but don’t look directly at the sun to try to see it. That’s harmful to
the eyes and it’s not visible to the human eye.
China again. The trade fair booms, but food price
inflation booms too.
Asian markets fall as Hong Kong violence escalates, trade tensions linger
By Marketwatch
and Associated
Press
Published: Nov 10,
2019 11:28 p.m. ET
Asian markets fell in early trading Monday amid continued
trade tensions between the U.S. and China and escalating violence in Hong Kong.Hong Kong police on Monday shot at least one protester as demonstrators blocked subway lines and roads during the morning commute. Police tried to disperse crowds with pepper spray and tear gas.
Hong Kong is in the sixth month of protests that began over a proposed extradition law and have expanded to include demands for greater democracy and police accountability.
On the trade front, President Donald Trump on Friday shot down speculation of a rollback on tariffs, saying he has not yet agreed to remove tariffs on Chinese goods, though Beijing would like him to.
“President Trump’s comments sounded more like a negotiating tactic than an actual threat, and Wall Street seemed to agree,” wrote Jeffrey Halley, senior Asia-Pacific market analyst at Oanda, in a note Sunday, noting Wall Street closed at record highs Friday.
More
The biggest risk facing the stock market in the coming year isn’t trade jitters or the election, Deutsche Bank warns
Published: Nov 10,
2019 7:32 p.m. ET
There’s plenty for investors to get all stressed out about in the coming
year, and Deutsche Bank chief economist Torsten Slok’s latest list of the 20
biggest risks will do little to alleviate those concerns.
As you can see, the potential for more trade fallout and fears over
slowing growth still rank high on Slok’s list, but inequality is in the top
spot:
----“They are all important at different horizons,” Slok told MarketWatch on Sunday, “but a continued rise in inequality and associated political response is something investors can no longer ignore.”
Democratic presidential candidates certainly aren’t ignoring it. Increased taxes on the rich, in an attempt to narrow the divide, is a critical part of the campaigns of both Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders ahead of the election.
Big-name investors have already made it clear what a President Warren could mean for markets. Billionares Paul Tudor Jones, Leon Cooperman and Steve Cohen have all talked about a nasty correction that could follow her victory.
More
In the never-ending WeWork crash, the latest from the
Wall Street Journal. Was WeWork accounting ever legit? They of course say yes,
but the Journal article raises many questions.
WeWork Was Wrestling With SEC Over Key Financial Metric Just Before It Scrapped IPO
Regulator raised numerous concerns about a metric WeWork called ‘contribution margin’ as it was trying to court investors, documents show
By Jean Eaglesham and Eliot Brown
Nov. 10, 2019 5:30 am ET
Just weeks before WeWork expected its stock to begin trading publicly,
the startup was still wrangling with the Securities and Exchange Commission
over a controversial key financial metric and a litany of other concerns about its
planned multibillion-dollar IPO.
On Sept. 11—after the initial public offering prospectus had been public
for nearly a month, and after the SEC had already made dozens of demands about
the document—the regulator sent the shared-workspace company a list of 13
still-unresolved concerns, according to previously unpublished correspondence
reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.
The back-and-forth shows that WeWork was scrambling to clean up big
problems as its IPO was crumbling. The timing was indicative of the chaotic
management that gave investors pause and ultimately led the company to pull the
offering and Chief Executive Adam Neumann to step down under pressure.
We Co., as the WeWork parent is known, had filed its draft prospectus
confidentially with the SEC for review in December 2018, giving the company
months to negotiate with the agency behind closed doors about its contents
before unveiling it to the public.
But as the IPO loomed, the SEC zeroed in on how WeWork framed its heavy
losses, particularly through a bespoke profitability metric called
“contribution margin,” a version of which had formerly been known as
“community-adjusted Ebitda.” The agency had first ordered WeWork to remove the
measure, before the company offered to substantially change it.
In mid-September, the day before WeWork had hoped to start the roadshow
to peddle its IPO to investors, the metric was still mentioned in its revised
prospectus more than 100 times. The company planned to amend the filing before
starting the roadshow, according to a person close to WeWork—but instead
shelved the IPO, as investors questioned the company’s worth and its corporate
governance.
“It’s highly unusual to have issues that are so important still being
disputed while they are out there marketing the stock to investors,” said Minor
Myers, a law professor at the University of Connecticut who reviewed the
correspondence at the Journal’s request. As WeWork was battling the SEC over
its metrics, its advisers were “figuring what they can sell using these numbers,”
Mr. Myers added.
More
Next an astronomical oddity. Today’s transit of the
planet Mercury across the face of the sun as seen from a large part of the
Earth. Do not look directly at the sun under any circumstances. Anyway, the
transit is not visible to the naked eye. Probably not visible in GB at all due
to seasonal clouds. It will be widely carried on TV news though.
Last transit of Mercury until 2032
Mercury – the innermost planet of our solar system – will transit the sun on November 11, 2019. In other words, Mercury will pass directly in front of the sun and be visible through telescopes with solar filters as a small black dot crossing the sun’s face. It’ll be visible in part from most of Earth’s globe. The entire transit is visible from South America, eastern North America, and far-western Africa.The last transit of Mercury was in 2016. The next one won’t be until 2032.
Be aware that this is a morning event on November 11, according to U.S. clocks. Mercury will come into view on the sun’s face around 7:36 a.m. Eastern Standard Time (12:36 UTC; translate UTC to your time) on November 11. It’ll make a leisurely journey across the sun’s face, reaching greatest transit (closest to sun’s center) at approximately 10:20 a.m. EST (15:20 UTC) and finally exiting around 1:04 p.m. EST (18:04 UTC). The entire 5 1/2 hour path across the sun will be visible across the U.S. East – with magnification and proper solar filters – while those in the U.S. West can observe the transit already in progress after sunrise.
More
Finally, China. The business of communist China is
business. Food price inflation on the rise led by pork prices. An opportunity
there for global pig producers, though the US trade war on China puts US
producers at a disadvantage.
China's Commerce ministry says $71 billion in deals inked at CIIE
November 10,
2019 / 9:28 AM / Updated 4 hours ago
BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s Commerce ministry said on Sunday that deals
worth $71.13 billion were agreed at the second China International Import Expo
(CIIE), up 23% on last year.
The ministry said on its website that 32% of the deals were in
manufacturing and 25% from the wholesale and retail industry.
The week-long CIIE in Shanghai, which closed on Sunday, is the
brainchild of Chinese President Xi Jinping and is aimed at showing the
country’s openness to importing foreign goods.
China's consumer inflation hits nearly 8-year high
By MarketWatch
Published: Nov 10,
2019 11:05 p.m. ET
BEIJING -- A doubling of pork prices last month sent Chinese consumer
inflation to its highest level in nearly eight years, constraining Beijing's
ability to stimulate the economy as growth continues to slow.
China's consumer-price index rose 3.8% in October from a year earlier,
the National Bureau of Statistics said Saturday -- higher than a median
forecast of 3.5% by economists polled by The Wall Street Journal, and far
outpacing September's 3.0% reading.
As it has all year, October's jump in consumer inflation was fueled by a
rise in hog prices, the fastest on record, amid an outbreak of the deadly
African swine fever.
Soaring pork prices lifted overall food-price inflation to a
more-than-11 year high, as consumer demand drove up prices for pork
alternatives including eggs and other meat products.
Even as the surge in food prices limits Chinese policy makers' stimulus
options, prices of nonfood items and factory-gate prices continued to show
signs of softness, pointing to weakening demand in the world's second-largest
economy. Nonfood price inflation moderated further to 0.9% in October, from
1.0% in September.
China's producer-price index dropped deeper into deflationary territory
in October, falling 1.6% in October from a year earlier, more than economists'
median forecast of a 1.5% decline. Producer prices fell 1.2% in September from
a year earlier.
Falling producer prices are expected to squeeze profit margins at China's
industrial companies, which have already been struggling to cope with tougher
environmental rules and reduced orders amid the protracted U.S. trade fight.
Given the continued surge in pork prices, Liu Xuezhi, an economist at
Shanghai-based Bank of Communications, predicted headline consumer inflation
could top 4% in the coming months, but called on policy makers to act.
More
My winnings were not quite enough to offset
both my losses and my living expenses.
Jesse Livermore
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
No crooks today. Today another look at US agriculture nearing the final
harvest figures. With another soybean crop waiting for Chinese buyers, time to
end the lose-lose trade war and try to save the global economy from crashing
into a new recession.
USDA Corn Yield Estimate Falls, Price Closes Up Slightly
USDA raised the U.S. soybean ending stocks.
By Mike McGinnis 11/8/2019
DES MOINES, Iowa — The size of the U.S. corn crop falls slightly,
according to the USDA Friday.
As a result, the corn market jumped up 5¢ only to reverse lower and then
finish higher. Soybean prices reacted and stayed negative against the report.
At the close, the Dec. corn futures finished 2¢ higher at $3.77 1/2.
March corn futures finished 2 3/4¢ higher at $3.86 1/4.
Jan. soybean futures closed 5 1/2¢ lower at $9.31. March soybean futures ended 4 3/4¢ lower at $9.44.
Jan. soybean futures closed 5 1/2¢ lower at $9.31. March soybean futures ended 4 3/4¢ lower at $9.44.
Dec. wheat futures finished 2 1/4¢ lower at $5.10 1/4.
December soymeal futures finished $0.70 per short ton lower at $304.90. December soy oil futures closed 0.07 cents higher at 31.50¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.05 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 61 points lower.
U.S. 2019 Production
In its November Supply/Demand Report, the USDA pegged the U.S. corn crop at 13.661 billion bushels, compared with its October estimate of 13.779 billion bushels and the trade’s expectation of 13.643 billion.For yield, the USDA sees it averaging 167.0 bu./acre vs. the trade’s expectations of 167.5 bu./acre and the government’s October estimate of 168.4.
The U.S. soybean output is pegged at 3.549 billion bushels vs. the avg. trade estimate of 3.510 billion bushels and the USDA’s October estimate of 3.55 billion.
The USDA sees the U.S. soybean yield averaging 46.9 bu./acre vs. the trade’s expectation of 46.6 bu./acre and the USDA’s October estimate of 46.9.
Also, the USDA estimates the U.S. 2019 corn harvested acres at 81.8 million vs. the avg. trade estimate of 81.3 million and the USDA’s October estimate of 81.8 million.
The U.S. 2019 soybean harvested acreage has been printed at 75.6 million vs. the trade’s expectation of 75.4 million and the USDA’s October estimate of 75.6 million.
U.S. Ending Stocks 2019-20
The U.S. is expected to have 1.91 billion bushels of corn, at the end of August 2020 (the end of the marketing year). That compares with the USDA’s October estimate of 1.929 billion bushels and the trade’s expectations of 1.799 billion.For soybeans, the ending stocks are pegged at 475 million bushels compared with the trade’s expectations 429 million bushels and the USDA’s October estimate of 460 million.
USDA pegged the U.S. 2019/20 wheat ending stocks at 1.014 billion bushels vs. the USDA’s previous estimate of 1.080 billion and the trade's expectation of 1.035 billion.
Trade Reaction
Bob Linneman, Commodity Broker, Kluis Commodity Advisor, says that the USDA gave the corn bulls a sliver of hope today when they cut yield to 167.0 bu./acre.“However, the USDA also cut demand. This cut was widely anticipated by traders, as exports remain sluggish. With prices near the lows of the trading range over the last six weeks, I would not be surprised to see buyers step in,” Linneman says.
Linneman added, “The soybean market was expecting some form of bullish news from the USDA report, today. Traders were surely disappointed when the USDA left production numbers unchanged from last month’s report. A small bearish adjustment to demand pushed stocks slightly higher, when the market was looking for a move in the other direction.”
Greg Lumsden, Cargill product line leader, says that this report can be seen as neutral, leaving the market to ponder seasonal demand, trade, and South American production.
“Heading into the report, the market has been largely rangebound weighing uncertainty of the report with the latest twists in trade negotiations. The average trade guess was for a mildly supportive production number on both corn and beans,” Lumsden says.
More
https://www.agriculture.com/news/crops/usda-corn-yield-estimate-falls-price-goes-up
Farmers in Crisis Turn to High-Interest Loans as Banks Pull Back
Alternative lenders extend reach during steep agricultural downturn; ‘They keep their finger on you.’
By Jacob Bunge and Kirk Maltais
Nov. 10, 2019 5:30 am ET
Financial stress is mounting in the Farm Belt, pushing more
growers to take on high-interest loans outside traditional banks to stay in
business.After his local farm bank wouldn’t lend him as much as he said he needed in 2017, Iowa farmer James Kron turned to Ag Resource Management LLC, a Texas-based financial-services firm. Now, when he takes his corn and soybeans to grain elevators near his farm, he signs the checks over to ARM until his loan is paid back in full.
He is one of many farmers leaning on alternative lenders to make it through the steepest agricultural downturn in a generation. With crop prices stuck at low levels, traditional farm banks are placing stricter terms on farm loans and doling out less money, leaving cash-strapped farmers such as Mr. Kron to seek capital from more lightly regulated entities.
While firms including ARM, FarmOp Capital LLC and Fora Financial LLC can be a lifeline for farmers, their loans can carry interest rates double those of traditional farm banks, said farmers, agricultural economists and lenders. The funding can require closer monitoring of how farmers spend as well as liens on each bushel of grain they produce.
“They keep their finger on you,” said Mr. Kron, who has borrowed from ARM over the past three years at interest rates of about 8%. Comparable rates at more-traditional banks are between 2% and 5%.
Five straight years of bumper harvests have pushed down crop prices and eroded farm profits. The Trump administration’s trade war with China has further depressed demand for U.S. crops. Record wet weather this year left millions of acres unplanted.
Farm debt is projected to hit a record $416 billion this year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, up nearly 40% since 2012. Defaults and bankruptcies are rising as well, crimping the ability of cash-strapped farmers to secure funding for seed, fertilizer and fuel.
More
https://www.wsj.com/articles/farmers-in-crisis-turn-to-high-interest-loans-as-banks-pull-back-11573381801?mod=hp_lead_pos5
There
may be good policy in retaliations of this kind, when there is a probability
that they will procure the repeal of the high duties or prohibitions complained
of. The recovery of a great foreign market will generally more than compensate
the transitory inconveniency of paying dearer during a short time for some
sorts of goods.
To
judge whether such retaliations are likely to produce such an effect, does not,
perhaps, belong so much to the science of a legislator, whose deliberations
ought to be governed by general principles which are always the same, as to the
skill of that insidious and crafty animal, vulgarly called a statesman or
politician, whose councils are directed by the momentary fluctuations of
affairs.
When
there is no probability that any such repeal can be procured, it seems a bad
method of compensating the injury done to certain classes of our people, to do
another injury ourselves, not only to those classes, but to almost all the
other classes of them.
Adam
Smith, 1776.
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Skanska to trial graphene enhanced road
Skanska and Oxfordshire council are working on trialling the use of a
graphene-enhanced type of asphalt.
Led by graphene specialist Directa Plus, who produce and supply
graphene-based products for consumer and industrial market, the trial in
Curbridge, Oxfordshire will see 750m of road laid using an asphalt concrete
with a proprietary graphene-enhanced super modifier.
The modifier, known as G+ will be laid into the two upper layers of the
road surface.
The trial is being conducted with the cooperation of Oxfordshire County
Council, with Skanska acting as prime contractor.
The trial, comparing asphalt concrete with the super modifier to a traditional
asphalt surfacing, will assess; service life; resistance to the passage of
vehicles; resistance to deformation; and permanent plastic deformation. This
follows on from the Company's previously announced successful trials in Italy.
Skanska UK operations director Jim Daughton said: "We’re always
looking for new ways to provide best value for our customers and their
communities, so we’re delighted to be the first to trial graphene asphalt in
the UK.
"If successful, this innovative, fully recyclable product will help
us more than double the durability of asphalt used in highways maintenance,
thus significantly increasing the lifespan of our roads, while reducing carbon,
which is key as we work with our supply chain to achieve net-zero carbon
emissions by 2045."
Directa Plus chief executive Giulio Cesareo said: "This trial is an
important step for Directa Plus and Iterchemica, in partnership, in proving the
business and use case for the next generation of graphene enhanced road
surfaces.
"This technology will allow governments to supply better quality
roads for drivers and other road users, at better value for money, and in a
more environmentally sustainable way.
"Working with leading companies such as Iterchemica to bring the
benefits of G+ graphene enhanced products and materials to market is a key part
of Directa Plus' strategy across all our key industrial verticals."
Socialism is an alternative to capitalism
as potassium cyanide is an alternative to water.”
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished October
DJIA: 27,046 +59 Up. NASDAQ: 8,292 +67 Up. SP500: 3,038 +67 Up.
Another inconclusive month,
but all three continued to move up weakly. A buy signal. But, like the Fed, I
would await more data.
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