Baltic Dry Index. 711
+12 Brent
Crude 70.65
Car Crash Brexit now 4
days away, maybe. Day 129 of the
never-ending China trade talks. Everyone’s “optimistic.”
The
whole history of civilization is strewn with creeds and institutions which were
invaluable at first, and deadly afterwards.
Walter
Bagehot.
For more on President
Trump’s attempt to pack the Fed with yes men cronies, scroll down to Crooks
Corner. But why now? Is a new recession already underway?
Up first, stocks edge
higher but where is the volume? Oil prices surge on Venezuela, Libya, OPEC and
friends cutbacks, and the coming end of US waivers to Iranian oil sales. Talk
of US military action against Venezuela, plus fighting in Libya make for a market
nervous of a price surge.
Asia shares at seven-month peak as China talks stimulus
April 8, 2019 /
1:38 AM
SYDNEY (Reuters) -
Asian shares inched up to seven-month highs on Monday as investors cheered a
rebound in U.S. payrolls and hints of more stimulus in China, though there was
some caution ahead of what is likely to be a tough U.S. earnings season.
In a document published on the central government’s website late on
Sunday, Beijing said it would step up a policy of targeted cuts to banks’
required reserve ratios to encourage financing for small and medium-sized
businesses.
Chinese blue chips climbed 1.4 percent to territory not visited since
March last year. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan
followed by gaining 0.4 percent to its highest since August.
Japan’s Nikkei also made its high of the year so far and was last up 0.1
percent. E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 were little moved.
On Wall Street, the benchmark S&P 500 closed higher for its seventh
trading day in a row last week, the longest winning streak since October 2017.
[.N]
However, a test looms as major U.S. banks kick off what analysts expect
to be the first quarter of contracting corporate earnings since 2016.
More
Oil hits highest since Nov 2018 amid OPEC cuts, U.S. sanctions
April 8, 2019 /
1:41 AM
SINGAPORE
(Reuters) - Oil prices rose to their highest level since November 2018 on
Monday, driven upwards by OPEC’s ongoing supply cuts, U.S. sanctions against
Iran and Venezuela, and strong U.S. jobs data.
International benchmark Brent futures were at $70.65 per barrel at 0441
GMT on Monday, up 31 cents, or 0.4 percent from their last close.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude were up 31 cents, or 0.5
percent, at $63.39 per barrel.
Brent and WTI both hit their highest since November at $70.76 and $63.48
a barrel, respectively, early on Monday.
“Brent prices increased more than 30 percent year-to-date as OPEC+
continued to cut supply for four months in a row and optimism over U.S.-China
trade talks helped to buoy the demand outlook,” U.S. bank J.P.Morgan said in a
note.
To prop up prices, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC) and non-affiliated allies like Russia, known as OPEC+, have pledged to
withhold around 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of supply this year.
Energy consultancy FGE said these cuts meant “excess inventories are
disappearing,” adding that “the market is poised for prices to rise to $75 per
barrel or higher” for Brent.
More
U.S. urges immediate halt to military operations in Libya
April 8, 2019 /
2:32 AM
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States called on Sunday for an
immediate halt to military operations in Libya as the Libyan National Army
headed by Khalifa Haftar advanced on the capital, Tripoli.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a statement that Washington was
“deeply concerned about fighting near Tripoli” and urged talks to end the
fighting.
“We have made clear that we oppose the military offensive by Khalifa
Haftar’s forces and urge the immediate halt to these military operations
against the Libyan capital,” Pompeo said in urging de-escalation.
Eleven people were killed and 23 wounded in clashes in southern Tripoli,
the Health Ministry of the U.N.-backed Libyan government of National Accord
said late on Sunday. The ministry gave no details of whether the casualties
were civilians or fighters.
Lawless since 2011 when Muammar Gaddafi was toppled by rebels backed by
NATO air strikes, Libya has become the transit point for hundreds of thousands
of migrants trekking across the Sahara in hopes of crossing the Mediterranean
Sea to reach Europe.
Haftar, 75, who casts himself as a foe of Islamist extremism but is
viewed by opponents as a new dictator in the mold of Gaddafi, enjoys the
backing of Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, which see him as a bulwark
against Islamists and have supported him militarily, according to U.N. reports.
More
In
other news, is the new NAFTA already doomed? Will Brexit finally happen on
Friday?
New NAFTA deal 'in trouble', bruised by elections, tariff rows
April 7, 2019 /
1:16 PM
MEXICO CITY/OTTAWA
(Reuters) - More than six months after the United States, Mexico and Canada
agreed a new deal to govern more than $1 trillion in regional trade, the
chances of the countries ratifying the pact this year are receding.
The three countries struck the United States-Mexico-Canada agreement
(USMCA) on Sept. 30, ending a year of difficult negotiations after U.S.
President Donald Trump demanded the preceding trade pact be renegotiated or
scrapped.
But the deal has not ended trade tensions in North America. If
ratification is delayed much longer, it could become hostage to electoral
politics.
The United States has its next presidential contest in 2020, and Canada
holds a federal election in October.
The delay means businesses are still uncertain about the framework that
will govern future investments in the region.
“The USMCA is in trouble,” said Andres Rozental, a former Mexican deputy
foreign minister for North America.
Though he believed the deal would ultimately be approved, Rozental said
opposition from U.S. Democrats and unions to labor provisions in the deal, as
well as bickering over tariffs, made its passage in the next few months highly
unlikely.
Canada’s Parliament must also ratify the treaty and officials say the
timetable is very tight. Current legislators only have a few weeks work left
before the start of the summer recess in June, and members of the new
Parliament would have little chance to address ratification until 2020.
Trump, a Republican, has shown frustration with the Democratic-led U.S.
House of Representatives for failing to sign off on the USMCA. He has
threatened to pull out of the old pact, the North American Free Trade Agreement
(NAFTA), if Congress does not hurry up.
If Trump did dump NAFTA, the three nations
would revert to trade rules in place before it came into effect in 1994.
Canada and Mexico are seeking exemption from U.S. tariffs on global
metal imports imposed last year.
The metals tariffs were not included in the USMCA and Mexico and Canada
are impatient to resolve the issue. Mexico has repeatedly threatened to target
new U.S. products by the end of April in retribution if tariffs are imposed.
More
Compromise? Time ticking down for Britain to come to Brexit agreement
April 7, 2019 /
12:44 PM
LONDON (Reuters) -
Britain’s government held out the possibility of compromise with the opposition
Labour Party on Sunday to try to win support in parliament for leaving the
European Union with a deal, just days before the latest Brexit date.
Prime Minister Theresa May, weaker than ever after her Brexit deal was
rejected by parliament three times, made another appeal to the public to
explain why she turned to Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn after giving up on
winning over eurosceptics in her Conservative Party, whose opposition has
hardened.
With Britain’s departure now set for April 12, May’s government is
running out of time to get a deal through a divided parliament, and must come
up with a new plan to secure another delay from EU leaders at a summit on
Wednesday.
Britain’s biggest shift in foreign and trade policy in more than 40
years is mired in uncertainty, with ministers saying Brexit may never happen,
businesses worried the country could leave without a deal, and others just
wanting to reverse it.
---- Germany’s finance minister, Olaf Scholz, called on the two sides to find what he called “a sensible agreement to end the paralysis in British politics and to avoid a disorderly Brexit”.
But, while describing the talks so far as positive, Labour’s business policy chief Rebecca Long-Bailey said there had as yet been no “real changes” to the deal.
More
This great Nation will endure as it has endured,
will revive and will prosper. So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief
that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself—nameless, unreasoning,
unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into
advance.
Franklin Delano Roosevelt 1932.
GB Brexit 2019.
GB Brexit 2019.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, the US Federal Reserve. Is
re-election Team Trump 2020 about to get control of the Fed? What will it mean
for stocks and bonds if it happens?
But why is Team Trump desperate to pack the Fed with crony yes men?
Desperate to force through rate cuts and a new round of quantitative easing?
What does Team Trump know about the US economy that we don’t know? Is the next
Lehman virtually upon us?
Under Donald Trump, Fed faces politicization
Date created :
07/04/2019 - 03:14
The US Federal Reserve has regularly faced criticism from Donald Trump,
but in recent days the president took matters into his own hands -- raising
concerns that the Fed is being politicized.
Not only did he again urge the Fed to lower interest rates, but he
tapped two unconventional loyalists to fill two empty seats on the Fed board.
Stephen Moore, 59, is a controversial economist and former Trump
campaign adviser.
And Herman Cain, 73, previously served as a board member at the Kansas
City Federal Reserve Bank and is the former CEO of a pizza restaurant chain.
Cain, a candidate for the Republican Party's nomination in the 2012
presidential election, suspended his campaign following allegations of sexual
misconduct, which he denied.
With the 2020 election looming, Trump often praises the health of the US
economy -- but on Friday he said that he wants it to take off like "a
rocket ship."
To make that happen, he urged the Fed to restart its post-financial
crisis "quantitative easing" program of buying bonds to add liquidity
to the economy.
Trump's moves have alarmed some experts, but he is not alone in thinking
the Fed went too far last year: some economists such as Joseph LaVorgna from
Natixis think it tightened too much.
For Michael Gapen of Barclays Research, the president's choices
"could raise questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve and
could be perceived as an attempted politicization of monetary policy."
Tim Duy, economics professor at the University of Oregon and an expert
on the central bank, told AFP that he believes "the threats to the Fed
independence are at the highest in decades."
Such pressure from the White House has not been seen since the 1970s. On
the eve of his 1972 reelection, former president Richard Nixon pressed then Fed
chair Arthur Burns to lower interest rates.
"Donald Trump is very mad at (Fed chair) Jerome Powell and his
colleagues for continuing to raise the interests rates (in 2018) and realizes
he has a role to play here. He can appoint whoever he wants to the Fed,"
added Duy.
At the beginning of his term, Trump had more traditional choices such as
Richard Clarida or Randal Quarles, both US Treasury Department economists.
Trump's chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow on Friday defended his
boss's approach.
"It's a free country and the president has a lot of well-informed
opinions as a successful businessman and investor," he said.
"We are not pressuring. We are not going after their independence
but we have our point of view."
- 'Stuck with you' -
Trump replaced Janet Yellen, nominated by Barack Obama to be the first
woman Fed chair, with Jerome Powell, a former investment banker who was already
on the board of governors.
But now Trump blames Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin for recommending
Powell, according to the Wall Street Journal. "I guess I'm stuck with
you," Trump said saying during a phone call with Powell, the newspaper
reported.
Most believe it is not legally possible for Trump to get rid of Powell,
who can be replaced at the end of his term in three years.
Recently Powell, who cautiously avoids commenting on the president's
complaints, insisted that he could not be dismissed by Trump.
"So
far Fed watchers really believed the Fed was going to be the only agency that
would be able to stand the turmoil of Washington and I think we are seeing it's
obviously not true," Duy said.
A large Bank is exactly the place where a
vain and shallow person in authority, if he be a man of gravity and method, as
such men often are, may do infinite evil in no long time, and before he is
detected. If he is lucky enough to begin at a time of expansion in trade, he is
nearly sure not to be found out till the time of contraction has arrived, and then
very large figures will be required to reckon the evil he has done.
Walter Bagehot. Lombard Street. 1873
Walter Bagehot. Lombard Street. 1873
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Stanford team develops brain-rejuvenating antibodies that let old mice think like youngsters
Loz Blain April 5th, 2019In a stunning piece of research, Stanford neuroscientists have hunted down a single gene that encodes a protein responsible for age-related cognitive losses, targeted it with special blocking antibodies, and shown in mice that these antibodies can rejuvenate old brains to work as well as young ones.
It all starts with the microglia, a class of brain cells responsible for
immune responses and routine cleanup. Among many other functions, microglia
spend their time gobbling up bits of protein deposits and cellular debris that
result from normal brain activity, and it's long been known that their
garbage-collecting performance deteriorates with age.
Tony Wyss-Coray, Ph.D, professor of neurology and neurological sciences
at the Stanford University School of Medicine, thought it was a "decent
bet" that the decline in microglial cleanup performance might be linked to
the kinds of cognitive declines we see with aging. Both Alzheimer's and
Parkinson's diseases, for example, are linked with abnormal activation patterns
for genes associated with the microglia.
----And when they compared results between the two studies, expecting to find a long list of genes that both change microglial eating patterns and significantly change gene activity levels with age, they were stunned to find just one that fit both categories: a gene known as CD22 that's found in both mice and humans. They followed up and found the CD22 protein was three times as prevalent on the surface of old mice's microglia as on those of young mice.
----So by this stage the team had zeroed in on a gene protein that both decreases microglial scavenging performance and increases its activity with age. It had managed to block the activity of this gene, and shown that the administration of special antibodies could rejuvenate the ability of old brains to clean up a range of garbage proteins that begin to build up in older brains – ones heavily associated with serious cognitive illnesses. So how did these antibodies affect brain performance?
Turning back the hands of time
After a month of continuous CD22 antibody infusion on both sides of mice's brains, the researchers achieved a stunning result. The mice improved their performance on two different learning and memory tests to the point where they significantly outperformed control mice of the same age."The mice became smarter," says Wyss-Coray. "Blocking CD22 on their microglia restored their cognitive function to the level of younger mice. CD22 is a new target we think can be exploited for treatment of neurodegenerative diseases."
Stanford immediately rushed to file patents on IP related to the study. As always, it's much too early to get excited about the possibility of this research producing a fountain of youth-style drug that can let octogenarians enjoy the mental acuity of 25 year olds again. But the fact that CD22 is found in both the human and mouse genome certainly makes this a promising research area to keep an eye on.
https://newatlas.com/stanford-mycroglia-cd22-cognition/59172/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2019-04-05%20073237%20Other%20Weekly%20Basic%202019-04-05%20073454%20Stanford%20team%20develops%20brain-rejuvenating%20antibodies%20that%20let%20old%20mice%20think%20like%20youngsters&utm_content=2019-04-05%20073237%20Other%20Weekly%20Basic%202019-04-05%20073454%20Stanford%20team%20develops%20brain-rejuvenating%20antibodies%20that%20let%20old%20mice%20think%20like%20youngsters+CID_244f34dafa302f35ff1384730d99ad4f&utm_source=Campaign%20Monitor
Interest rates are the most important prices
in the economy, according to Nobel laureate F.A. Hayek, because they reflect
the collective time preference of individuals to consume either now or later.
Accordingly, interest rates co-ordinate allocation of capital across the
economy by signalling to businesses whether they should invest. Distortions in
interest rates can cause “clusters of errors” in which large swathes of
businesses unwittingly miscalculate at the same time.
Hayek observed that interest rate stimulus
interfered with economic calculations, causing managers to invest in projects
that would not otherwise have appeared profitable. Losses can subsequently
materialise as customer demand fails to meet forecasts that were, in
retrospect, optimistic. Long-term projects are highly sensitive to interest
rates and are therefore more susceptible to such distortions. Pension
obligations and long-term, capital-intensive projects are at high risk of
miscalculation based on artificially low rates.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished March
DJIA: 25,929 +54 Down. NASDAQ: 7,729 +94 Down.
SP500: 2,834
+53 Down.
Normally this
would suggest more correction still to come, but with President Trump wanting
to be judged by the performance of the stock market and the Fed’s Plunge
Protection Team now officially part of President Trump’s re-election team,
probably the safest action here is fully paid up synthetic double options on
most of the major indexes.
No comments:
Post a Comment