Baltic Dry Index. 790
+23 Brent
Crude 73.82
Never ending Brexit
now October 31, maybe. Day 143 of the
never-ending USA v China trade talks. Everyone’s still “optimistic.”
There are three classes of
people: those who see, those who see when they are shown, those who do not see.
Leonardo da Vinci
Up first today, crude
oil prices jump. Washington is determined to push Asia into the next global
recession, or bust.
From Moscow’s
perspective they can hardly believe their luck. Washington makes oil prices
soar, seems about to get militarily involved in Iran and Venezuela, annoy
China, India, and all of East Asia at the same time, push Turkey even closer towards
Russia.
As an added bonus,
the CIA’s puppet in the Ukraine, installed by the late Senator McCain and the State
Departments Victoria Nuland, just got destroyed and humiliated in yesterday’s
presidential election. It doesn’t get any better than this if you’re sitting in
the Kremlin, and so far it hasn’t even cost them a penny.
Below, another wheel
about to fly off Asia and Europe’s economies. If/when recession hits, Beijing
and Brussels will blame Trump and Washington. For now, the question is just how
high will the oil price rise? With the US summer driving (and planting) season
almost at hand, a crude oil spike in May is unhelpful, to say the least.
U.S. to announce end to Iran sanctions waivers, oil prices spike
April 22, 2019 /
12:38 AM
WASHINGTON/SINGAPORE
(Reuters) - The United States is expected to announce on Monday that all buyers
of Iranian oil will have to end their imports shortly or face sanctions, a
source familiar with the situation told Reuters, triggering about a 3 percent rise
in crude prices.
The source confirmed a report by a Washington Post columnist that the
administration will terminate the sanctions waivers it granted to some
importers of Iranian oil late last year.
Global benchmark Brent crude oil futures rose by as much as 3.2 percent
to $74.30 a barrel, the highest since Nov. 1, in early Asian trading on Monday
in reaction to expectations of tightening supply. U.S. West Texas Intermediate
futures climbed as much as 2.9 percent to $65.87 a barrel, its highest since Oct.
30. [O/R]
U.S. President Donald Trump has been clear to his national security team
over the last few weeks that he wants the waivers to end, and National Security
Adviser John Bolton has been working the issue within the administration.
In November, the U.S. reimposed sanctions on exports of Iranian oil
after President Trump unilaterally pulled out of a 2015 nuclear accord between
Iran and six world powers.
Washington, however, granted Iran’s eight main buyers of oil waivers to
the sanctions that allowed them limited purchases for six months.
They were China, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Turkey, Italy and
Greece.
But on Monday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will announce “that, as of May 2, the State Department will no longer grant sanctions waivers to any country that is currently importing Iranian crude or condensate,” the Post’s columnist Josh Rogin said in his report, citing two State Department officials that he did not name.
On April 17, Frank Fannon, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources, repeated the administration’s position that “our goal is to get to zero Iranian exports as quickly as possible.”
An end to the exemptions would hit Asian buyers the hardest. Iran’s biggest oil customers are China and India, who have both been lobbying for extensions to sanction waivers.
South Korea, a close U.S. ally, is a major buyer of Iranian condensate, an ultra-light form of crude oil which its refining industry relies on to produce petrochemicals.
More
Asia stocks firm, oil hits five-month peak on Iran sanctions report
April 22, 2019 /
1:43 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) -
Asian shares were steady on Monday as investors took stock of recent data
suggesting global growth may be stabilising, while oil prices spiked on a
report the U.S. is likely to ask all importers of Iranian oil to end their
purchases or face sanctions.
Brent futures rallied to a five-month high, after the Washington Post
said U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will announce “that as of May 2, the
State Department will no longer grant sanctions waivers to any country that is
currently importing Iranian crude or condensate.”
The potential disruption to Iranian supplies are expected to add to an
already tight oil market.
“The U.S. chief Iran hawks indeed have the President’s ear as (Secretary
of State) Pompeo and (National Security Advisor) Bolton are singularly focused on
bringing Iran’s economy to its knees,” said Stephen Innes, head of trading at
SPI Asset Management.
“Predictably oil prices are rising,” he said.
Equities markets were subdued as investors awaited the resumption of
trading in major centres from the Good Friday holiday, with MSCI’s broadest
index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan little changed in early deals.
More
Comedian Zelenskiy wins Ukrainian presidential race by landslide - exit polls
April 21, 2019 /
4:05 AM
KIEV (Reuters) -
Ukraine entered uncharted political waters on Sunday after exit polls showed a
comedian with no political experience and few detailed policies had easily won
enough votes to become the next president of a country at war.
The apparent landslide victory of Volodymyr Zelenskiy, 41, is a bitter
blow for incumbent Petro Poroshenko who tried to rally Ukrainians around the
flag by casting himself as a bulwark against Russian aggression and a champion
of Ukrainian identity.
Two national exit polls showed Zelenskiy had won 73 percent of the vote
with Poroshenko winning just 25 percent. Early voting data suggested the polls
were accurate.
Zelenskiy, who plays a fictitious president in a popular TV series, is
now poised to take over the leadership of a country on the frontline of the
West’s standoff with Russia following Moscow’s annexation of Crimea and support
for a pro-Russian insurgency in eastern Ukraine.
Declaring victory at his campaign headquarters to emotional supporters,
Zelenskiy promised he would not let the Ukrainian people down.
“I’m not yet officially the president, but as a citizen of Ukraine, I
can say to all countries in the post-Soviet Union look at us. Anything is
possible!”
European Council President Donald Tusk congratulated Zelenskiy, as did
French President Emmanuel Macron and British foreign minister Jeremy Hunt.
Zelenskiy, whose victory fits a pattern of anti-establishment figures
unseating incumbents in Europe and further afield, has promised to end the war
in the eastern Donbass region and to root out corruption amid widespread dismay
over rising prices and sliding living standards.
More
In Boeing news, what on earth is going
on?
Safety concerns reportedly raised about another Boeing jet, the 787 Dreamliner
By
Mike
Murphy Published: Apr 21, 2019 5:25
p.m. ET
Safety concerns
are being raised about a second airplane made by Boeing Co., the 787
Dreamliner, according to a New York Times report Saturday. The jetliner's South
Carolina factory "has been plagued by shoddy production and weak oversight
that have threatened to compromise safety," the Times said.
The report
cited numerous internal documents, federal records and interviews, and described
a workplace culture that often favored increased production over quality and
safety, despite complaints from workers. "I've told my wife that I never
plan to fly on it," one Dreamliner technician told the Times. "It's
just a safety issue." The safety of another Boeing jetliner, the 737 Max,
already been questioned after two recent crashes.
Finally, China. Last
week to no one’s surprise, China announced its scripted GDP figure of a
slightly lower number of 6.4 percent. No one, least of all in Beijing, believe
it. Below, the UK’s Telegraph provides an updated reality check. It’s not good
news for an already slowing global economy, despite all the recent spin that
the worst is over. In reality it’s just the usual northern hemisphere seasonal
uplift.
For a Europe facing a new trade war with President
Trump’s trade war hooligans, and Brexit, a summer/autumn recession lies dead
ahead. For a banking system, led by Deutsche Bank, that’s all but broken,
another European banking crisis will soon reappear.
More on the
unstoppable rise of Huawei, despite trade war team Trump.
Maximum vulnerability: China (and the world) are still in big trouble
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard April 19, 2019
China's majestic and elegantly-stable GDP figures are best seen as an instrument of political combat.Donald Trump says "trade wars are good and easy to win" if your foes depend on your market and you can break them under pressure.
He proclaimed victory when the Shanghai equity index went into a swoon
over the winter. This is Trumpian gamesmanship.
It is in China's urgent interest to puncture such claims as trade talks
come to a head. Xi Jinping had to beat expectations with a crowd-pleaser in the
first quarter. The number was duly produced: 6.4 per cent. Let us all sing the
March of the Volunteers.
"Could it really be true?" asked Caixin magazine. This was a
brave question in Uncle Xi's evermore totalitarian regime.
Of course it is not true. Japan's manufacturing exports to China fell by
9.4 per cent in March (year on year). Singapore's shipments dropped by 8.7 per
cent to China, 22 per cent to Indonesia, and 27 per cent to Taiwan. Korea's
exports are down 8.2 per cent.
The greater China sphere of east Asia is in the midst of an industrial
recession. Nomura's forward-looking index still points to a deepening downturn.
"Those expecting a strong rebound in Asian export growth in coming months
could be in for disappointment," said the bank.
China's rebound is hard to square with its own internal data. Simon Ward
from Janus Henderson said nominal GDP growth - trickier to manipulate - is
still falling. It dropped to 7.4 per cent from 8.1 per cent in the last quarter
on 2018.
Household demand deposits fell by 1.1 per
cent last month. This means that the growth rate of "true" M1 money
is still at slump levels. It has ticked up a fraction but this is nothing like
previous episodes of Chinese stimulus. It points towards stagnation into late
2019. "Hold the champagne," he said. A paper last month by Wei Chen
and Chang-Tai Tsieh for the Brookings Institution - "A Forensic
Examination of China's National Accounts" - concluded that GDP growth has
been overstated by 1.7 per cent a year on average since 2006.
---- Liaoning - a Spain-sized province in
the north - recently corrected its figures after an anti-corruption crackdown
exposed grotesque abuses. Estimated GDP was cut by 22 per cent. You get the
picture.
More
Huawei first-quarter revenue grows 39 percent to $27 billion amid heightened U.S. pressure
April 22, 2019 /
4:48 AM
HONG KONG
(Reuters) - Huawei Technologies said on Monday its first-quarter revenue jumped
39 percent to 179.7 billion yuan ($26.81 billion), in the Chinese technology
firm’s first-ever quarterly results.
The Shenzhen-based firm, the world’s biggest telecoms equipment maker,
also said its net profit margin was around 8 percent for the quarter, which it
added was slightly higher than the same period last year. Huawei did not
disclose its actual net profit.
The limited results announcement comes at a time when Washington has
intensified a campaign against unlisted Huawei, alleging its equipment could be
used for espionage and urging U.S. allies to ban it from building
next-generation 5G mobile networks.
Huawei has repeatedly denied the allegations and launched an
unprecedented media blitz by opening up its campus to journalists and making
its typically low-key founder, Ren Zhengfei, available for media interviews.
The Chinese firm, which is also the world’s No. 3 smartphone maker, said
last week the number of contracts it has won to provide 5G telecoms gear
increased further despite the U.S. campaign.
By the end of March, Huawei said it had signed 40 commercial 5G
contracts with carriers, shipped more than 70,000 5G base stations to markets
around the world and expects to have shipped 100,000 by May.
More
Where there is shouting, there is
no true knowledge.
Leonardo da Vinci
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today,
US planting season. Cause for concern, but not yet a problem.
Abnormally wet spring delays Midwest planting
April 19, 2019
EVANSVILLE, Ind., April 19 (UPI) -- An abnormally wet spring, that includes
extensive flooding in some areas, has pushed planting season across the Midwest
behind schedule. But farmers aren't panicking yet.
Planting generally begins in mid-April. That means it would have been
underway in most areas now.
But, as of mid-week, no corn had been planted in
Iowa, Nebraska, or North and South Dakota, according to the U.S. Department of
Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service. Other key Midwest
growing states also were behind.
From a calendar standpoint, now is about the time our part of the state
-- central Illinois -- will plant," said Rod Weinzierl, the executive
director of the Illinois Corn Growers Association. "We do have a past
board member down in southern Illinois who does have corn in the ground. But
most people do not -- like 99 percent of people."
Farmers still have about three weeks to get their crops in the ground
before any impact on their fall harvest, agriculture experts say. But this
delay has farmers across the region anxiously monitoring forecasts, hoping that
a dry spell will enable planting within that time frame.
In central Illinois, forecasts indicate that dry spell might arrive next
week, Weinzierl said. But neighboring states, like Indiana, and the
flood-ravaged states of Iowa, Nebraska and South Dakota are looking at longer
waits.
"I'm guessing planting might start at the very end of April,"
said Kent Thiesse, the senior agriculture loan officer at Minnstar Bank in
Minnesota. "In some places, it will probably be pushed back into
May."
Farmers need dry weather to plant for more than one reason, said
Thiesse, a former University of Minnesota Extension educator. To start, the
fields must be dry enough to drive their tractors through without getting
stuck. In addition, corn and soybeans need sufficiently dry soil to germinate
properly.
Though planting is behind schedule, farmers still have time to get their
crops in the ground without the delay affecting fall harvest yields.
"University data says that if you get it in the ground by about May
10, there won't be an impact," Weinzierl said. "Now, if we're not
planting in two weeks, that's when we'll start to get more stirred up."
It's the same story across much of the Midwest, apart from the areas
hardest hit by historic the mid-March floods that swept through Nebraska and
parts of South Dakota and Iowa. Fields in many of those areas still are
flooded, making it increasingly unlikely that farmers will be able to plant at
all this season.
More
Nature never breaks her own laws.
Leonardo da Vinci
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Need more energy storage? Just hit 'print'
Researchers produce conductive MXene ink to print micro-supercapacitors
Date:
April 17, 2019
Source:
Drexel University
Summary:
Researchers have developed a conductive ink made from a special type of
material they discovered, called MXene, that was used by the researchers to
print components for electronic devices. The ink is additive-free, which means
it can print the finished devices in one step without any special finishing
treatments.
Researchers from Drexel University and Trinity College in Ireland, have
created ink for an inkjet printer from a highly conductive type of
two-dimensional material called MXene. Recent findings, published in Nature
Communications, suggest that the ink can be used to print flexible energy
storage components, such as supercapacitors, in any size or shape.
Conductive inks have been around for nearly a decade and they represent
a multi-hundred million-dollar market that is expected to grow rapidly into the
next decade. It's already being used to make the radiofrequency identification
tags used in highway toll transponders, circuit boards in portable electronics
and it lines car windows as embedded radio antennas and to aid defrosting. But
for the technology to see broader use, conductive inks need to become more
conductive and more easily applied to a range of surfaces.
Yury Gogotsi, PhD, Distinguished University and Bach professor in
Drexel's College of Engineering, Department of Materials Science and
Engineering, who studies the applications of new materials in technology,
suggests that the ink created in Drexel's Nanomaterials Institute is a
significant advancement on both of these fronts.
"So far only limited success has been achieved with conductive inks
in both fine-resolution printing and high charge storage devices," Gogotsi
said. "But our findings show that all-MXene printed micro-supercapacitors,
made with an advanced inkjet printer, are an order of magnitude greater than
existing energy storage devices made from other conductive inks."
While researchers are steadily figuring out ways to make inks from new,
more conductive materials, like nanoparticle silver, graphene and gallium, the
challenge remains incorporating them seamlessly into manufacturing processes.
Most of these inks can't be used in a one-step process, according to Babak
Anasori, PhD, a research assistant professor in Drexel's department of
Materials Science and Engineering and co-author of the MXene ink research.
"For most other nano inks, an additive is required to hold the
particles together and allow for high-quality printing. Because of this, after
printing, an additional step is required -- usually a thermal or chemical
treatment -- to remove that additive," Anasori said. "For MXene
printing, we only use MXene in water or MXene in an organic solution to make
the ink. This means it can dry without any additional steps."
MXenes are a type of carbon-based, two-dimensional layered materials,
created at Drexel in 2011, that have the unique ability to mix with liquids,
like water and other organic solvents, while retaining their conductive
properties. Because of this, Drexel researchers have produced and tested it in
a variety of forms, from conductive clay to a coating for electromagnetic
interference shielding to a near-invisible wireless antenna.
Adjusting the concentration to create ink for use in a commercial
printer was a matter of time and iteration. The solvent and MXene concentration
in the ink can be adjusted to suit different kinds of printers.
"If we really want to take advantage of any technology at a large
scale and have it ready for public use, it has to become very simple and done
in one step," Anasori said. "An inkjet printer can be found in just
about every house, so we knew if we could make the proper ink, it would be feasible
that anyone could make future electronics and devices."
More
Simplicity is the ultimate
sophistication.
Leonardo da Vinci
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished March
DJIA: 25,929 +54 Down. NASDAQ: 7,729 +94 Down.
SP500: 2,834
+53 Down.
Normally this
would suggest more correction still to come, but with President Trump wanting
to be judged by the performance of the stock market and the Fed’s Plunge
Protection Team now officially part of President Trump’s re-election team,
probably the safest action here is fully paid up synthetic double options on
most of the major indexes.
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