Baltic Dry Index. 869
+19 Brent
Crude 74.26
Never ending Brexit
now October 31, maybe.
Day 147 of the
never-ending USA v China trade talks. Everyone’s “optimistic.”
USA v EU trade war 19
days away? No one optimistic.
They
don’t ring a bell at the top.
Wall
Street Adage.
Did stocks already arrive at their destination but nobody noticed because no one rang a bell or announced “all change?” Did we just put in a double top? Have the Trump trade wars, with a new one about to start against Europe, dropped our 737 Max global economy below stall speed?
While it’s too early to say for certain, a quick look around planet earth this morning from London, suggests that we have indeed arrived. Now what? That what, is likely to involve less and less effective hype and hopium, plus rising panic in the re-election team Trump Fed.
In snake bit, Brexit Europe, the ECB has all but given up on staving off a new recession. With Germany joining France, Italy and Spain, all near or below stall speed, higher oil prices here to stay, and Brexit still to come, Europe’s a gonner, head for the parachutes now.
Below, the final Friday of April 2019.
What beat me was not having brains enough to stick to my own game. … there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time.
Jesse Livermore.
Asian markets mostly fall after Dow, oil prices pull back
By Marketwatch
and Associated
Press Published: Apr 25, 2019 11:25
p.m. ET
Asian markets trended down in early trading Friday,
following a pullback by the Dow Jones Industrial Average and a continued drop
in oil prices.Japan’s Nikkei NIK, -0.32% fell 0.7% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index HSI, +0.26% edged up 0.2%. The Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, -0.08% declined 0.5% and South Korea’s Kospi SEU, -0.33% was down 0.4%. Stocks were about flat in Singapore STI, +0.06% and Indonesia JAKIDX, -1.16% , but down in Taiwan Y9999, -0.99% . Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 XJO, -0.06% was down slightly
More
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-markets-mostly-fall-after-dow-oil-prices-pull-back-2019-04-25?mod=mw_theo_homepage
Intel stock plummets on disappointing earnings outlook as new CEO describes ‘more cautious’ trend
By Wallace
Witkowski Published: Apr 25, 2019
5:54 p.m. ET
Intel Corp. shares plummeted as much as 9% in the extended
session Thursday after the chip giant’s outlook fell way below Wall Street
estimates, offsetting an earnings beat, and a decline in data-center revenue
was worse than expected. Intel INTC, -1.89% said it expects adjusted earnings of 89 cents a share on revenue of about $15.6 billion for the second quarter, while analysts polled by FactSet had forecast earnings of $1.01 a share on revenue of $16.86 billion. For the year, the chip maker sees adjusted earnings of $4.35 a share on revenue of about $69 billion. Analysts had forecast $4.50 a share on revenue of $71.04 billion.
“Our conversations with customers and partners across our PC and data-centric businesses over the past couple months have made several trends clear,” Intel Chief Executive Bob Swan said on the conference call.
“The decline in memory pricing has intensified, the data-center
inventory and capacity digestion that we described in January is more
pronounced than we expected, and China headwinds have increased, leading to a
more cautious IT spending environment,” Swan said. “And yet those same customer
conversations reinforce our confidence that demand will improve in the second
half.”
The company reported first-quarter net income of $3.97 billion, or 87
cents a share, compared with $4.45 billion, or 93 cents a share, in the
year-ago period. Adjusted earnings were 89 cents a share. Revenue declined to
$16.06 billion from $16.07 billion in the year-ago quarter. Analysts had
forecast adjusted earnings of 87 cents a share on revenue of $16.03 billion,
according to FactSet.
Morehttps://www.marketwatch.com/story/intel-stock-plummets-on-disappointing-earnings-outlook-as-new-ceo-takes-a-more-cautious-view-2019-04-25?mod=mw_theo_homepage&mod=mw_theo_homepage
Tesla’s earnings were a ‘debacle,’ says longtime bull in scorching commentary
By Ciara
Linnane and Claudia Assis
Published: Apr 25, 2019 12:54 p.m. ET
Tesla Inc.’s first-quarter earnings and accompanying call
with analysts was “one of (the) top debacles we have ever seen,” according to
one longtime Tesla bull, who said Thursday he was dropping his buy rating on
the stock.Daniel Ives of Wedbush cut his rating on Tesla TSLA, -4.26% to neutral from outperform, the equivalent of buy, in a scorching note that reflected equal amounts of frustration and despair.
“In our 20 years of covering tech stocks on the Street we view this quarter as one of top debacles we have ever seen while Musk & Co. in an episode out of the Twilight Zone act as if demand and profitability will magically return to the Tesla story,” Ives wrote in a note to investors. “Ultimately we believe the company’s guidance is aggressive and management/board is not taking aggressive enough cost cutting actions and shutting down future endeavors to preserve capital and give a sustained path to profitability for the Street.”
More
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/teslas-earnings-were-a-debacle-says-longtime-bull-in-scorching-commentary-2019-04-25?mod=MW_story_top_stories
Man credited with calling the 2008 crisis says the next 20 years in the stock market will ‘break a lot of hearts’
By Mark
DeCambre Published: Apr 25, 2019
4:36 p.m. ET
Jeremy Grantham, an investor credited with predicting the
2000 and 2008 downturns, told CNBC on Thursday that investors should get inured
to lackluster returns in the stock market for the next two decades, after a century
of handsome gains. “In the last 100 years, we’re used to delivering perhaps 6%,” but the U.S. market will be delivering real returns of about 2% or 3% on average over next 20 years, the value investor and co-founder of Boston-based asset manager GMO told CNBC in a rare interview.
Over the past five years, the S&P 500 index SPX, -0.04% has produced a compound annual growth rate of 8.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.51% has boasted a CAGR of 9.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +0.21% has registered a compound return of 11.4% over the same period, according to FactSet data.
Grantham attributed his call for lower future returns to a stock market he still views as pricey, despite a downturn that gripped the broader market in the latter portion of 2018.
The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio, a popular gauge of stock-market value created partly by Nobel laureate economist Robert Shiller, stands at 30.04, well above its historical average of 16.61.
Grantham, who has been predicting a meltdown in stocks since last year, said that not even the recent go-slow reversal by the Federal Reserve on rate increases and the European Central Bank’s decision to roll out a fresh batch of bank stimulus will push stocks significantly higher. “You can’t get blood out of a stone,” he told the network.
More
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investor-credited-with-calling-the-2008-crisis-says-the-next-20-years-in-the-stock-market-will-break-a-lot-of-hearts-2019-03-07?mod=MW_story_top_stories
Oil prices on track for longest weekly gains in years amid tense global market
April 26, 2019 /
1:49 AM
SINGAPORE
(Reuters) - Oil prices dipped on Friday on hopes that producer club OPEC will
soon raise output to make up for a decline in exports from Iran following a
tightening of sanctions on Tehran by the United States.
Despite this, oil markets remain tight amid supply disruptions and
rising geopolitical concerns, especially over the tensions between the United
States and Iran, putting prices on course for the longest run of weekly gains
in years.
Brent crude futures were at $74.17 per barrel at 0430 GMT, down 18
cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last close.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $64.92 per
barrel, down 29 cents, or 0.4 percent.
The dip followed Brent’s rise above $75 per barrel for the first time
this year on Thursday after Germany, Poland and Slovakia suspended imports of
Russian oil via a major pipeline, citing poor quality. The move cut parts of
Europe off from a major supply route.
Brent is on track for its fifth weekly price gain, the longest such
stretch since April 2018. WTI’s weekly gains have been going on for eight
weeks, marking the longest weekly run since the first half of 2015.
More
Poland, Russia, Belarus and Ukraine to talk on polluted Russian oil
April 26, 2019 /
6:34 AM
WARSAW (Reuters) - Representatives of Poland, Russia, Belarus and
Ukraine will meet on Friday in Minsk, the capital of Belarus, to discuss how to
solve the problem of polluted Russian oil, Poland’s pipeline operator PERN said
on Thursday night.
Poland, Germany and Slovakia suspended imports of Russian oil via a
major pipeline, citing poor quality and triggering a rare crisis over supply
from the world’s second-largest crude exporter.
The quality problem arose last week when an unknown Russian producer contaminated
oil with high levels of organic chloride, which is used to boost oil output but
must be separated before shipment as it can destroy refining equipment.
The suspension cuts off a major supply route for Polish refineries owned
by Poland’s PKN Orlen and Grupa Lotos, as well as plants in Germany owned by
Total, Shell, Eni and Rosneft.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, more on China’s “New Silk Road.” China’s Belt and Road
Initiative, striking fear and paranoia in Washington D. C. Suppose Eur-Asia
united and prospered along with Africa, and possibly even India? Though unlikely, a recurring nightmare in the
District of Crooks!
Dominance or development? What’s at the end of China’s New Silk Road?
·
Beijing’s global infrastructure drive will be in
the spotlight this week when dozens of heads of state converge on the Chinese
capital for the second Belt and Road Forum
·
In the first of a four-part series, we look at
what might be the real purpose of the massive programme
Shi
Jiangtao Sarah
Zheng Published: 6:00am, 22 Apr, 2019
By the entrance of the main office in Cambodia’s Sihanoukville Special
Economic Zone is a crimson message from the country’s prime minister, Hun Sen.
Written in flowing Khmer and Mandarin is a quote from the China-friendly
strongman likening the area to “my own son”.
On the opposite wall is a quote from Chinese President Xi Jinping
hailing the zone – one of the first industrial estates in Asia funded and
jointly run by Chinese investors – as a landmark model of cooperation.
The zone is home to dozens of Chinese firms and is just 12km (7 miles)
from Cambodia’s only deep-sea port, a facility that was developed with the help
of China’s strategic rival, Japan.
The port, which handles about 70 per cent of Cambodian imports and
exports, is a major link in a chain of some 600 facilities in 200 countries
connected by China’s “
.
China launched the scheme in 2015 to spur trade along ancient Silk Road
land and sea routes linked to Asia, Africa and Europe.
Cambodia is one of the poorest and least developed countries in the
world and has become a haven for Chinese investors, with capital inflows
reaching an estimated US$3.9 billion last year.
The growth in investment in places like Cambodia comes despite mounting
criticism and resistance, and underlines Beijing’s accelerated push for the
world’s most ambitious project amid China’s economic wrangling with the United
States and European powers and their unfolding geopolitical rivalry.
Those ambitions will be in the spotlight this week when 37 heads of
state, including Hun Sen and Russian President Vladimir Putin, head to Beijing
for the Belt and Road Forum, the second of its kind in less than two years. But
neither India nor the US will send senior representatives.
Observers say the event is aimed at both domestic and foreign audiences,
with Beijing keen to showcase the popularity of Xi’s foreign policy and gauge
the level of interest and commitment among participants in the project.
But there is also expected to be much questioning and scrutiny of
China’s global ambitions. While Beijing wants to convince the world of its
peaceful rise and its desire to promote regional connectivity and growth in
Eurasia and Africa by using government capital, state-owned enterprises and
projects abroad, it still has a lot of explaining to do.
“A significant part of the Belt and Road Initiative is projecting the
rejuvenation of China inherent in Xi’s ‘Chinese dream’,” Steve Tsang, director
of the SOAS China Institute at the University of London’s School of Oriental and
African Studies, said. “It is not about solving the world’s problems but about
making Xi’s China appear great and successful.”
More
China's Xi says Belt and Road must be green, sustainable
April 25, 2019 /
2:39 AM
BEIJING
(Reuters) - China’s Belt and Road initiative must be green and sustainable,
President Xi Jinping said at the opening of a summit on his grand plan on
Friday, adding that the massive infrastructure and trade plan should result in
“high-quality” growth for everyone.
Xi’s plan to rebuild the old Silk Road to connect China with Asia,
Europe and beyond has become mired in controversy as some partner nations have
bemoaned the high cost of infrastructure projects.
China has not said exactly how much money will be needed in total, but
some independent estimates suggest it will run into several trillion dollars.
Beijing has repeatedly said it is not seeking to trap anyone with debt
and only has good intentions, and has been looking to use this week’s summit in
Beijing to recalibrate the policy and address those concerns.
Xi said in a keynote speech that environmental protection must underpin
the scheme “to protect the common home we live in”.
“We must adhere to the concept of openness, greenness, and cleanliness,”
he said.
More
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Coal could yield treatment for traumatic injuries
Scientists discover coal-derived 'dots' are effective antioxidant
Date:
April 24, 2019
Source:
Rice University
Summary:
Coal-derived graphene quantum dots, when modified with a polymer, are effective
antioxidants. They could lead to a therapy for people who suffer traumatic
brain injuries, strokes or heart attacks.
Graphene quantum dots drawn from common coal may be the basis for an
effective antioxidant for people who suffer traumatic brain injuries, strokes
or heart attacks.
Their ability to quench oxidative stress after such injuries is the
subject of a study by scientists at Rice University, the Texas A&M Health
Science Center and the McGovern Medical School at The University of Texas
Health Science Center at Houston (UTHealth).
Quantum dots are semiconducting materials small enough to exhibit
quantum mechanical properties that only appear at the nanoscale.
Rice chemist James Tour, A&M neurologist Thomas Kent and UTHealth
biochemist Ah-Lim Tsai and their teams found the biocompatible dots, when
modified with a common polymer, are effective mimics of the body's own
superoxide dismutase, one of many natural enzymes that keep oxidative stress in
check.
But because natural antioxidants can be overwhelmed by the rapid
production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) that race to heal an injury, the
team has been working for years to see if a quick injection of reactive
nanomaterials can limit the collateral damage these free radicals can cause to
healthy cells.
An earlier study by the trio showed that hydrophilic clusters modified
with polyethylene glycol (PEG) to improve their solubility and biological
stability are effective at quenching oxidative stress, as a single nanoparticle
had the ability to neutralize thousands of ROS molecules.
"Replacing our earlier nanoparticles with coal-derived quantum dots
makes it much simpler and less expensive to produce these potentially
therapeutic materials," Tour said. "It opens the door to more readily
accessible therapies."
Tests on cell lines showed a mix of PEG and graphene quantum dots from
common coal is just as effective at halting damage from superoxide and hydrogen
peroxides as the earlier materials, but the dots themselves are more disclike
than the ribbonlike clusters.
The results appear in the American Chemical Society journal ACS
Applied Materials & Interfaces.
The Tour lab first extracted quantum dots from coal in 2013 and reported
on their potential for medical imaging, sensing, electronic and photovoltaic
applications. A subsequent study showed how they can be engineered for specific
semiconducting properties.
In the new study, the researchers evaluated the dots' electrochemical,
chemical and biological activity. The Rice lab chemically extracted quantum
dots from inexpensive bituminous and anthracite coal, modified them with the
polymer and tested their abilities on live cells from rodents.
The results showed that quantum dot doses in various concentrations were
highly effective at protecting cells from oxidation, even if the doses were
delayed by 15 minutes after the researchers added damaging hydrogen peroxide to
the cell culture dishes.
More
Another weekend and the spring/summer uplift is firmly underway in the northern hemisphere. But is the seasonal uplift enough to carry stock markets up to new, probably unsustainable highs? And what if it isn’t? Do we get to retest the December lows? The other recurring DC nightmare, but this one in the White House and in the Powell Fed. Have a great weekend everyone.
A man
will risk half his fortune in the stock market with less reflection than he
devotes to the selection of a medium-priced automobile.
Jesse Livermore.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished March
DJIA: 25,929 +54 Down. NASDAQ: 7,729 +94 Down.
SP500: 2,834
+53 Down.
Normally this
would suggest more correction still to come, but with President Trump wanting
to be judged by the performance of the stock market and the Fed’s Plunge
Protection Team now officially part of President Trump’s re-election team,
probably the safest action here is fully paid up synthetic double options on
most of the major indexes.
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