Baltic Dry Index. 821
+31 Brent
Crude 74.12
Never ending Brexit
now October 31, maybe.
Day 145 of the
never-ending USA v China trade talks. Everyone’s “optimistic.”
USA v EU trade war 22
days away? No one optimistic.
“It is difficult not to marvel at the imagination which was implicit in this gargantuan insanity. If there must be madness something may be said for having it on a heroic scale."
John Kenneth Galbraith. The Great Crash: 1929
With the Powell Fed
firmly in the Trump 2020 re-election team, US stocks have nowhere to go but
higher, apparently. Asian markets, busy watching a slowing China, rising crude
oil prices, a tottering Europe aren’t so sure. What happens to Iranian oil
sales in May? How will Iran respond short of war?
From Lebanon to
Afghanistan, to Libya and the Sudan, the whole region is a powder keg awaiting
a spark. Iran sanctions might just be that spark if Iran responds irrationally.
They wouldn’t do that would they? US hedge fund specs are betting they would.
Everyone else is betting they won’t.
Still it’s hardly a reason to want overpriced sometimes rigged stocks at
the top.
Asian shares fall despite strong Wall Street; dollar near 22-month high
April 24, 2019 /
2:10 AM
SHANGHAI (Reuters)
- Equity markets in Asia faltered on Wednesday, amid losses in South Korea and
worries that China has put any further stimulus on hold as the economy shows
signs of regaining its footing.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was 0.5
percent lower, erasing early gains in the wake of record closing highs on Wall
Street overnight.
The biggest regional loser was South Korea’s KOSPI, which was down 1.3
percent. Investors shrugged off the government’s proposed supplementary budget
aimed in part at supporting exports, and worried after chipmaker Texas
Instruments said it expects a slowdown in demand for microchips could last a
few more quarters.
Shares of Samsung Electronics were down 2.1 percent.
“Texas Instruments has published some good results but has poured a
little bit of cold water on what’s going to happen in the second half of the
year,” said Frank Benzimra, head of Asia equity strategy at Societe Generale.
Chinese equities also dropped after early gains, pushing the blue-chip
CSI300 index down 0.9 percent and extending losses for the week driven by
concerns that Beijing may slow the pace of policy easing following
stronger-than-expected first-quarter economic growth.
China’s central bank is likely to pause to assess economic conditions
before making any further moves to ease lenders’ reserve requirements, after
the growth data reduced the urgency for action, policy insiders said.
More
S&P 500, Nasdaq close at all-time highs
April 23, 2019 /
6:15 PM
April 23 (UPI) -- The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes hit
record closing highs Tuesday, bouncing back from losses at the end of 2018.
The S&P 500 climbed 0.88 percent to 2,933.68 points, breaking its
previous record high from Sept. 20, while the Nasdaq eclipsed its previous
all-time high from Aug. 29, closing up 1.3 percent at 8120.82.
Both indexes have had strong starts to the year, with the S&P 500 up 17 percent, its best start since 1987, and the Nasdaq has risen 22 percent for its best start since 1991.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average also rose Tuesday, gaining 145.34 points, or 0.55 percent, to 26,656.39, just short of an all-time high.
Tuesday's gains came as Twitter shares climbed 15.6 percent after reporting it has 330 million monthly active users, exceeding analysts' expectations.
Lockheed Martin stock increased 5 percent and Dow companies Coca-Cola and United Technologies rose 1.7 percent and 2.3 percent respectively after exceeding earnings expectations.
Overall, more than 78 percent of S&P 500 companies surpassed analyst earning expectations this week.
Stocks have had a strong start to the year after the Federal Reserve announced in January that it would hold interest rates steady throughout 2019.
Near the end of 2018 all three indexes experienced sharp losses on Christmas Eve, each falling about 20 percent below their peaks.
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2019/04/23/SP-500-Nasdaq-close-at-all-time-highs/2221556053481/?ls=4
Top US officials heading to Beijing for trade talks: White House
Date created :
Two top American officials will head to Beijing next week to continue
talks on the bruising trade war between the US and China, the White House said
on Tuesday.
"United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Secretary
of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin will travel to Beijing for continued
negotiations on the trade relationship between the United States and
China," the White House said in a statement.
The talks -- which will be led by Vice Premier Liu He on the Chinese
side -- will begin on April 30, and a delegation from Beijing will travel to
Washington on May 8, the statement said.
"The subjects of next week's discussions will cover trade issues
including intellectual property, forced technology transfer, non-tariff
barriers, agriculture, services, purchases, and enforcement," it added.
During shuttle diplomacy in recent months, US and Chinese officials have
alternated between projecting optimism and warning that success in their
high-stakes talks is not guaranteed.
The two sides have exchanged tariffs on more than $360 billion in
two-way trade since last year, weighing on both countries' manufacturing
sectors and unnerving global stock markets.
In
other news, the Journal frets over the health of President Xi and his
succession. What do they and the NSA/CIA know that we don’t? Why is this going
public now? A new trade war tactic or something far more serious?
Xi’s Unsteady Steps Revive Worries Over Lack of Succession Plan in China
Speculation on Chinese leader’s health fuels concern about one-man rule
By Chun Han Wong Updated
April 23, 2019 3:38 p.m. ET
BEIJING—Chinese President Xi Jinping’s recent European tour
produced much pageantry, from ceremonial welcomes to banquets, that boosted his
image. For some observers, it was his unusual gait that caught the eye.Television coverage of Mr. Xi’s visits to Italy, Monaco and France last month appeared to show him walking with a slight limp while inspecting honor guards and touring local sights. At a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron, Mr. Xi gripped both arms on his chair to support himself as he sat down, news footage showed.
These images stirred speculation about Mr. Xi’s health among politically minded Chinese, foreign diplomats and China watchers, who quietly wondered if the Chinese leader, who turns 66 in June, had an ailment that caused him physical discomfort. Guessing games have played out on overseas Chinese news outlets and social media, where users offered theories from muscle sprains to gout.
Mr. Xi has been publicly visible in China since the trip, including an appearance on a warship on Tuesday during a celebration of the 70th anniversary of China’s navy.
But the videos from Europe fueled “a little discussion” among some Chinese intellectuals in private social-media chat rooms, said a retired politics professor in Beijing. “Everyone didn’t say much, but there was a tacit mutual understanding.”
Chinese state media haven’t discussed Mr. Xi’s health or the recent speculation. The opacity shrouding China’s leadership has long driven analysts to scrutinize officials’ public appearances and remarks for clues on the Communist Party’s inner workings. Such efforts have gained urgency as Mr. Xi tilted toward one-man rule, fueling unease about what might happen if he were to become incapacitated, and reviving the specter of internecine power struggles that jarred Mao Zedong’s dictatorship.
Uncertainty over the line of succession beyond Mr. Xi “exacerbates risks to the political system and the society,” said Zhang Lifan, an independent historian in Beijing. “The danger in not naming a successor is that a leader can’t fall sick or suffer problems that prevent him from performing his duties,” which would stir rumors that undercut his authority, he said.
Foreign intelligence agencies have been studying Mr. Xi’s health closely, especially after he cleared a path toward lifetime rule by scrapping presidential term limits last year, according to a researcher who recently discussed the issue with intelligence officials from two governments.
“Their concern is that the party doesn’t have a well-thought out succession plan,” the researcher said. “We can’t say we know what would follow if something happens to Xi.”
More
Finally, Iran oil
news. Bad news for US drivers but good
news for speculators. Could Iran have a plan to block the Strait of Hormuz? Just
how high can Brent crude oil surge?
Sanctions on Iranian oil bring U.S. drivers pain at the pump
April 23, 2019 /
9:17 PM
(Reuters) -
American middle class consumers are enjoying the strongest wage growth in a
decade, but higher gasoline prices are eating a good chunk of that increase for
many, and it looks like pump prices are headed higher.
Gasoline pump prices have already jumped about 25% this year, the
fastest rate in three years. Trump administration sanctions against Iranian
crude oil exports had something to do with that, and this week’s move to
tighten sanctions could soon send prices even higher.
Crude oil prices hit their highest in about six months on Tuesday. Some
analysts expect the national average pump price, currently near $2.85 a gallon,
will climb above $3 a gallon for the first time since 2014. Few goods prices
aggravate U.S. consumers as much as high gasoline prices.
“It’s an important part of consumers’ psyche,” Mark Zandi, chief
economist at Moody’s Analytics, said of a further rise in energy prices. “They
live with it everyday.”
Zandi and other analysts said higher gasoline prices would irritate U.S.
motorists heading into the summer driving season, but they do not think a moderate
fuel price hike would force people to cut spending in other areas. For now,
consumer spending has remained resilient, with wages growing in a tight job
market. Average hourly earnings in the private sector are rising at roughly
3.2% year over year, the strongest in a decade.
More
Column: Iran sanctions decision rewards hedge fund oil bulls
April 23, 2019 /
2:16 PM
LONDON (Reuters) -
Hedge fund managers added even more bullish long positions in crude oil and
gasoline last week as traders bet prices will continue rising despite a
sluggish economy and political sensitivity around escalating motoring costs.
Even before the latest sanctions announcement, hedge funds and other money managers increased their net long position in the six most important petroleum futures and options contracts by another 61 million barrels in the week to April 16.
Fund managers have purchased a total of 564 million barrels of crude and refined products over the last 14 weeks in one of the longest and certainly smoothest and most consistent bull markets on record.
Funds were net buyers last week of Brent (+22 million barrels), NYMEX and ICE WTI (+21 million), U.S. gasoline (+10 million), U.S. heating oil (+3 million) and European gasoil (+5 million).
Portfolio managers now hold a net bullish position in the six contracts equivalent to 865 million barrels, nearly three times higher than in early January, although still below the recent high of 1.099 billion in late September.
More
"Indeed the temporary breaks in the market which preceded the crash were a serious trial for those who had declined fantasy. Early in 1928, in June, in December, and in February and March of 1929 it seemed that the end had come. On various of these occasions the [New York] Times happily reported the return to reality. And then the market took flight again. Only a durable sense of doom could survive such discouragement. The time was coming when the optimists would reap a rich harvest of discredit. But it has long since been forgotten that for many months those who resisted reassurance were similarly, if less permanently discredited.”
J. K. Galbraith. The Great Crash: 1929.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today,
China adds another front to that easy to win, USA v China trade war. Long after
Trump’s gone, the trade war bitterness will linger on.
China complains to U.S. over end to Iran oil sanction waivers
April 23, 2019 /
9:36 AM
BEIJING (Reuters)
- China’s Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday it has formally complained to the
United States over its decision to end waivers on sanctions on Iranian oil
imports, adding another fault line to already complicated Beijing-Washington
ties.
China is Iran’s largest crude oil customer, with total imports last year
of 29.27 million tonnes, or about 585,400 barrels a day, roughly 6 percent of
China’s total oil imports, according to customs data.
Washington has announced that all Iran sanction waivers will end by May,
causing crude oil prices to rise and pressuring importers to cut their Iranian
imports to zero.
China was one of eight global buyers that won exemptions to import crude
oil last November.
China is resolutely opposed to the United States enforcing unilateral
sanctions or “long armed jurisdiction”, Geng Shuang, a ministry spokesman, told
a daily news briefing.
“The decision from the U.S. will contribute to volatility in the Middle
East and in the international energy market. We urge the United States to take
a responsible attitude and play a constructive role, not the opposite,” Geng
said.
“China has already lodged representations with the U.S. side about
this.”
The “normal” energy cooperation China and other countries have with Iran
within the framework of international law is lawful and reasonable, and should
be respected, he added.
“China urges the U.S. side to earnestly respect China’s interests and
concerns and not take any wrong actions that harm China’s interests.”
China will continue to work to protect the legitimate rights of Chinese
firms, Geng said.
Beijing and Tehran have long had close relations, especially in the
energy sector.
Some of China’s refineries are configured to process the Iranian crude
and refinery officials say Iranian oil typically yields better margins compared
similar grades from rival suppliers such as Saudi Arabia.
State-owned Sinopec Group and China National Petroleum Corp both produce
oil in Iran, having spent billions of dollars on oil fields such as Yadavaran
and North Azadegan. They have been sending the oil from the fields to China.
China and the United States are currently working to end a bitter trade
war, but have numerous other areas of disagreement, including the South China
Sea and U.S. support for self-ruled Taiwan, which Beijing claims as a wayward
province.
“If
you're not gonna pull the trigger, don't point the gun.”
James
Baker. United States Secretary of the Treasury under President Ronald Reagan,
and U.S. Secretary of State and White House Chief of Staff under President
George H. W. Bush.
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
From 2D to 1D: Atomically quasi '1D' wires using a carbon nanotube template
New bulk synthesis method for nanowires of molybdenum telluride for nanoelectronics
Date:
April 20, 2019
Source:
Tokyo Metropolitan University
Summary:
Researchers have used carbon nanotube templates to produce nanowires of
transition metal monochalcogenide (TMM), which are only 3 atoms wide in
diameter. These are 50 times longer than previous attempts and can be studied
in isolation, preserving the properties of atomically quasi '1D' objects. The
team saw that single wires twist when perturbed, suggesting that isolated
nanowires have unique mechanical properties which might be applied to switching
in nanoelectronics.
Two-dimensional materials have gone from theoretical curiosity to
real-life application in the span of less than two decades; the most well-known
example of these, graphene, consists of well-ordered sheets of carbon atoms.
Though we are far from leveraging the full potential of graphene, its
remarkable electrical and thermal conductivity, optical properties and
mechanical resilience have already led to a wide range of industrial
applications. Examples include energy storage solutions, biosensing, and even
substrates for artificial tissue.
Yet, despite the successful transition from 3D to 2D, the barrier
separating 2D and 1D has been significantly more challenging to overcome. A
class of materials known as transition metal monochalcogenides (TMMs,
transition metal + group 16 element) have received particular interest as a
potential nanowire in precision nanoelectronics. Theoretical studies
have existed for over 30 years, and preliminary experimental studies have also
succeeded in making small quantities of nanowire, but these were usually bundled,
too short, mixed with bulk material or simply low yield, particularly when
precision techniques were involved e.g. lithography. The bundling was
particularly problematic; forces known as van der Waals forces would force the
wires to aggregate, effectively masking all the unique properties of 1D wires
that one might want to access and apply.
Now, a team led by Assistant Professor Yusuke Nakanishi from Tokyo
Metropolitan University has succeeded in producing bulk quantities of
well-isolated single nanowires of TMM. They used tiny, open-ended rolls of
single-layered carbon, or carbon nanotubes (CNTs), to template the assembly and
reaction of molybdenum and tellurium into wires from a vapor. They succeeded in
producing single isolated wires of TMM, which were only 3-atoms thick and fifty
times longer than those made using existing methods. These nanometer-sized CNT
"test tubes" were also shown to be not chemically bound to the wires,
effectively preserving the properties expected from isolated TMM wires.
Importantly, they effectively "protected" the wires from each other,
allowing for unprecedented access to how these 1D objects behave in isolation.
While imaging these objects using transmission electron microscopy
(TEM), the team found that these wires exhibited a unique twisting
effect when exposed to an electron beam. Such behavior has never been seen
before and is expected to be unique to isolated wires. The transition from a
straight to twisted structure may offer a novel switching mechanism when the
material is incorporated into microscopic circuits. The team hope the ability
to make well-isolated 1D nanowires might significantly expand our understanding
of the properties and mechanisms behind the function of 1D materials.
Franklin Delano Roosevelt 1932.
GB Brexit 2019.
GB Brexit 2019.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished March
DJIA: 25,929 +54 Down. NASDAQ: 7,729 +94 Down.
SP500: 2,834
+53 Down.
Normally this
would suggest more correction still to come, but with President Trump wanting
to be judged by the performance of the stock market and the Fed’s Plunge
Protection Team now officially part of President Trump’s re-election team,
probably the safest action here is fully paid up synthetic double options on
most of the major indexes.
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