Baltic Dry Index. 767
+18 Brent
Crude 71.72
Never ending Brexit
now October 31, maybe. Day 139 of the
never-ending USA v China trade talks. Everyone’s still “optimistic.”
There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.
John Kenneth Galbraith
Note: no update
tomorrow, Good Friday. The next update will be on Holy Saturday, the weekend
update.
Is the global economy
poised for a summer recovery, or has it already reached stall point, and poised
for a summer of decline? Global stock markets have been churning away for
months but going nowhere.
That will probably
depend on the outcome of the never-ending USA v China trade talks, whether
President Trump imposes auto tariffs on EU exports, and what happens in the EU
elections in late May, where in the UK at least, the newly founded Brexit Party
has surged into the lead on 27 percent.
To a lesser extent it
will also depend on America, Mexico, and Canada actually ratifying their new
trade deal that’s almost the same as the old one.
It also depends on no
one in Washington starting any new wars.
Below, spin and hope
versus reality?
Asian shares off nine-month peak, European PMIs in focus
April 18, 2019 /
1:43 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) -
Asian shares slipped on Thursday after losses on Wall Street but trade was
subdued as investors awaited business surveys in Europe and largely stayed on
the sidelines ahead of the long Easter weekend holiday.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan lost 0.2
percent, reversing course after brushing its highest since late July 2018 early
in the trading session.
Australian shares held steady while Japan’s Nikkei was down nearly half
a percent and Chinese blue chips dipped 0.3 percent.
Wall Street shares drifted lower on Wednesday, with the S&P 500
giving up 0.2 percent as a drop in healthcare equities outweighed upbeat
economic data from the United States and China. [.N]
The U.S. trade deficit fell to an eight-month low in February as imports
from China plunged, data on Wednesday showed.
Separate figures from China earlier in the day showed the world’s
second-largest economy grew at a steady 6.4 percent pace in the first quarter,
defying forecasts for a slowdown. Attention is now turning to how much more
stimulus Beijing will apply without triggering more financial risks.
---- Investors’
immediate focus turned to the release of Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) for
the manufacturing and service sectors in Europe later on Thursday to provide
more clues on the strength of the euro zone economy.
More
Two-thirds of American CFOs predict a recession by the summer of 2020, survey finds
By Chris
Matthews Published: Apr 17, 2019
4:15 p.m. ET
American CFOs fear a recession by the third quarter of next year, according to the latest Duke CFO Global Business Outlook Survey, released Wednesday.
The survey generated responses from more than 1,500 chief financial officers, including 469 from North America, and showed that 67% of those surveyed predicted the U.S. economy would be in recession by the third quarter of 2020, and 84% believe a recession will have begun by the first quarter of 2021. Thirty-eight percent of respondents predicted a recession by the first quarter of next year.
John Graham, finance professor the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University and director of the survey, told MarketWatch that while CFOs are not as pessimistic as they were three months ago, it is unusual in the history of the survey for such a large share of respondents to predict a recession just 16 months from now.
”The recession predictions are closer than usual, with a greater magnitude” of respondents indicating recession fears, Graham said.
More
Fed’s Beige Book reports ‘slight-to-moderate’ growth despite strengthening in a few regions
By Greg Robb Published:
Apr 17, 2019 3:49 p.m. ET
The description: Most of the Federal Reserve’s 12 district banks reported economic activity expanded at a “slight-to-moderate” pace in March and early April, according to the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report, released Wednesday. A “few” districts reported some strengthening in activity.
What happened: Reports from the Fed’s contacts suggested sluggish sales for both general retailers and auto dealers into April. Home sales and tourism were bright spots. Agricultural conditions were weak and contacts in several Midwest districts expressed alarm about the heavy snow and subsequent widespread flooding.
The labor market remained tight, leading to upward wage pressures. The ability of firms to pass increased input costs to consumers was “mixed.” On balance, prices rose modestly, the Fed said.
Big picture: While perhaps not as downbeat as the prior report, the Beige Book does not describe an economy firing on all cylinders. Still, economists have been revising up their forecasts for first-quarter gross domestic product on the back of favorable data, including the narrowing of the trade deficit in February, reported earlier Wednesday. Fed officials will meet on April 30 and May 1 to set interest-rate policy. All-in-all, the report suggests inflation will remain muted, allowing the Fed time to wait-and-see how the economy develops over the summer before making any adjustments to interest rates.
More
Japan manufacturers' mood slumps to two-and-a-half-year low - Reuters Tankan
April 18, 2019 /
12:25 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) -
Japanese manufacturers’ business confidence slipped to a 2-1/2-year low in
April, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday, underlining growing concerns the
economy could slip into a recession in the face of slowing external demand.
The monthly poll, which tracks the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) closely watched
tankan quarterly survey, found the service-sector mood up for the first time in
four months, which may help ease some of the pressure on the world’s
third-biggest economy.
Manufacturers’ mood is expected to rebound over the coming three months
and service-sector morale is also seen edging up slightly, although the pace of
recovery appears weak.
Subdued business confidence - on top of weakness in factory output and
exports - has raised the spectre of a downturn, although BOJ Governor Haruhiko
Kuroda has maintained a relatively sanguine view on the economy in a signal
that policy will remain steady at next week’s rate-review.
More
In central banking as in diplomacy, style, conservative
tailoring, and an easy association with the affluent count greatly and results
far much less.
John Kenneth Galbraith
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, the rump-EUSSR. Brexit
now, before a German recession brings down Deutsche Bank and with them Germany
and the whole house of cards. Not to worry too much, what’s left of Ukraine,
the most corrupt country in Europe, wants to join Euroland ASAP!
Portugal's truck drivers to meet essential supplies as fuel dries up
April 17, 2019 /
9:27 AM
LISBON (Reuters) - Striking fuel-tanker drivers in Portugal have agreed
to provide essential supplies to emergency services such as hospitals and
airports, the government said on Wednesday, but the strike continued, worsening
fuel shortages in cities and towns across the country.
Portugal declared an energy crisis on Tuesday night after the strike
forced it to order striking workers to get back on the road immediately as
airports resorted to emergency reserves, forcing at least one flight to be
cancelled.
Airports in Lisbon and Faro, the country’s two biggest tourist hubs,
have been running low on fuel supplies, and long queues of motorists have
formed outside thousands of petrol stations across the country.
But the airport in Porto, another popular tourist spot, is coping as its
fuel arrives through a pipeline, Portuguese news agency Lusa said.
The government said in a statement that representatives from the
National Union of Dangerous Goods Drivers had agreed to provide minimum
services in talks held late on Tuesday.
“The aim of the meeting wasn’t to reach an agreement (on the strike).
The aim was to define minimum services so the population doesn’t suffer as it
has suffered in recent days,” said Gustavo Duarte, president of the National
Association of Public Road Freight Conveyors, quoted by local newspaper ECO.
More
'Best times over' for Germany: government slashes growth forecast
April 17, 2019 /
11:15 AM
BERLIN (Reuters) -
The German government cut its forecast for 2019 economic growth for the second
time in three months on Wednesday, reflecting a worsening slowdown driven by a
recession in manufacturing.
German exporters are struggling with weaker demand from abroad, trade
tensions triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s “America First” policies
and business uncertainty caused by Britain’s planned departure from the
European Union.
The difficult trade environment means that Germany’s vibrant domestic
demand, helped by record-high employment, inflation-busting pay increases and
low borrowing costs, is expected to be the main driver of growth this year and
next.
The government now expects gross domestic product to grow 0.5 percent
this year, Economy Minister Peter Altmaier told reporters as he presented the
spring forecast. For 2020, the government now envisages a consumption-driven
rebound with economic expansion of 1.5 percent.
In January, the government cut its forecast to 1.0 percent growth from
1.8 percent previously.
Altmaier said the slowing world economy, trade disputes and Brexit
uncertainty were weighing on the German economy. Domestic factors include the
introduction of new car-emission regulations and unusually low Rhine water
levels, which have led to supply and production bottlenecks.
Import growth is expected to surpass export growth in both 2019 and
2020, which is likely to reduce the large trade surplus further.
More
Eurogroup head Centeno urges Germany to spend, Italy to be cautious
April 16, 2019 /
7:25 PM
LONDON (Reuters) - Germany should use its fiscal leeway to help foster
an economic recovery, particularly in the manufacturing sector, Mario Centeno,
head of the Eurogroup of euro zone finance ministers, said on Tuesday.
Italy needs to deliver on its budget promises, but Germany can deploy
some of its massive budget surplus to boost growth, he told an audience in
London.
“It is of course high time for budget execution and delivery in Italy.
We must see some delivery there. In Germany it is time to use the leeway to
foster a recovery in particular of the manufacturing sector,” he said.
In response to a question on the viability of a European Safe Asset, he
said “Yes we need to develop such an asset. It’s not really today on the
agenda, that debate, but I hope in the future we will be able to raise it to
that level.”
“It’s highly political,” he added.
The term “safe asset” refers to the idea of issuing financial
instruments backed by euro zone countries as a way of furthering integration.
Spain's Socialists hold lead ahead of election, still short of majority - poll
April 17, 2019 /
6:41 AM
MADRID (Reuters) - Spain’s Socialists kept the lead in voting intentions
ahead of the April 28 election, a GAD3 poll for the ABC newspaper showed on
Wednesday, but were still short of a parliamentary majority, even with backing
from far-left allies Podemos.
The latest voting intention surveys illustrate how deeply Spain’s
political system is torn between five parties as the country heads in to a
bitterly fought parliamentary election.
Prime Minister
Pedro Sanchez’s Socialists would win between 136 and 139 seats, the poll of
2,000 people taken from April 9 to 15 showed, short of a majority in the
350-seat parliament and compared with a range of 137 to 139 of the previous
GAD3 poll on April 11.
Unidos Podemos would take 28 to 32 seats, the poll showed, placing a
potential left-wing alliance closer, but below the 176 seats necessary for a
overall majority in the lower house and highlighting the razor-thin margins
ahead of the election.
The poll showed the conservative People’s Party (PP) would take 82 to 86
seats, while market friendly Ciudadanos may take 393 to 41 seats, and far-right
Vox, 30 to 34 seats, gathering pace from 25 to 29 in a previous poll.
But we end on Europe on an uplifting
note. Notre Dame can and will regain its stature as possibly Europe’s top
cathedral outside of Italy. As of Wednesday afternoon, over 700 million euros
had been pledged to fund restoration. Magnificent.
Notre-Dame will reign magnificent again, say Windsor Castle restorers
April 16, 2019 /
1:23 PM
LONDON (Reuters) -
Architects who restored Windsor Castle after a fire devastated the oldest
inhabited castle in the world have a message for France: Notre-Dame Cathedral will
reign magnificent again over Paris, possibly sooner than grieving Parisians
expect.
Notre-Dame, a symbol of Christian splendour that has captured the dreams
of poets, princes and lovers through eight centuries of French history, was
engulfed by flames which destroyed its roof and spire.
If there is a lesson from the 1992 fire at the home of Britain’s Queen
Elizabeth II, it is that one the jewels of Gothic cathedral architecture can be
saved.
“We shall see Notre-Dame magnificent again,” said Francis Maude, an
architect at Donald Insall Associates which led the restoration of Windsor
Castle and is now working on restoring the parliamentary Palace of Westminster
in London.
“The French can be reassured that it can certainly be done,” he said.
“We would be more than ready to help.”
Maude cited the reconstruction of Warsaw after World War Two, Dresden’s
Frauenkirche (Church of Our Lady) after the reunification of Germany, and
Windsor after the 1992 fire as illustrations of what could be done.
Windsor Castle, founded by William the Conqueror in the 11th Century,
survived centuries of England’s often bloody history and passed through World
War Two unscathed. But a fire broke out in Queen Victoria’s private chapel on
Nov. 20, 1992.
A spotlight might have set a curtain alight. Luckily, many areas had
already been emptied of treasures to allow electrical wiring. Paintings by Van
Dyck, Rubens and Gainsborough, Sèvres porcelain and ancient books were rushed
to safety.
Only two works of art were lost - a rosewood sideboard and a very large
painting by Sir William Beechey that couldn’t be taken down in time, according
to the Royal Collection Trust.
---- Repairs to
Windsor began immediately after the fire and work was completed by Nov. 20,
1997, the golden wedding anniversary of Elizabeth and her husband Prince
Philip. It cost around 37 million pounds ($48 million).
---- “In the initial stage, the most difficult question is how much of the standing structure can be consolidated and retained and how much of it might need to be taken down and rebuilt,” said Maude.
Downes said France would have an easier time than Britain finding the
skilled craftsmen for the job, because it could draw on the Compagnons du Tour,
made up of thousands of highly skilled craftsmen in traditional construction.
More
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Graphene gives a tremendous boost to future terahertz cameras
Date:
April 15, 2019
Source:
ICFO-The Institute of Photonic Sciences
Summary:
Scientists have developed a novel graphene-enabled photodetector that operates
at room temperature, is highly sensitive, very fast, has a wide dynamic range
and covers a broad range of THz frequencies.
Detecting terahertz (THz) light is extremely useful for two main
reasons:
First, THz technology is becoming a key element in applications
regarding security (such as airport scanners), wireless data communication, and
quality control, to mention just a few. However, current THz detectors have
shown strong limitations in terms of simultaneously meeting the requirements
for sensitivity, speed, spectral range, being able to operate at room
temperature, etc.
Second, it is a very safe type of radiation due to its low-energy
photons, with more than a hundred times less energy than that of photons in the
visible light range.
Many graphene-based applications are expected to emerge from its use as
material for detecting light. Graphene has the particularity of not having a
bandgap, as compared to standard materials used for photodetection, such as
silicon. The bandgap in silicon causes incident light with wavelengths longer
than one micron to not be absorbed and thus not detected. In contrast, for
graphene, even terahertz light with a wavelength of hundreds of microns can be
absorbed and detected. Whereas THz detectors based on graphene have shown
promising results so far, none of the detectors so far could beat commercially
available detectors in terms of speed and sensitivity.
In a recent study, ICFO researchers Sebastian Castilla and Dr. Bernat
Terre?s, led by ICREA Prof. at ICFO Frank Koppens and former ICFO scientist Dr.
Klaas-Jan Tielrooij (now Junior Group Leader at ICN2), in collaboration with
scientists from CIC NanoGUNE, NEST (CNR), Nanjing University, Donostia
International Physics Center, University of Ioannina and the National Institute
for Material Sciences, have been able to overcome these challenges. They have
developed a novel graphene-enabled photodetector that operates at room
temperature, and is highly sensitive, very fast, has a wide dynamic range and
covers a broad range of THz frequencies.
In their experiment, the scientists were able to optimize the
photoresponse mechanism of a THz photodetector using the following approach.
---- The
results of this study open a pathway towards the development a fully digital
low-cost camera system. This could be as cheap as the camera inside the
smartphone, since such a detector has proven to have a very low power
consumption and is fully compatible with CMOS technology.
Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving
that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.
John Kenneth
Galbraith
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished March
DJIA: 25,929 +54 Down. NASDAQ: 7,729 +94 Down.
SP500: 2,834
+53 Down.
Normally this
would suggest more correction still to come, but with President Trump wanting
to be judged by the performance of the stock market and the Fed’s Plunge
Protection Team now officially part of President Trump’s re-election team,
probably the safest action here is fully paid up synthetic double options on
most of the major indexes.
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