Baltic Dry Index. 714
+03 Brent
Crude 71.17
Car Crash Brexit now 3
days away, maybe. Day 130 of the
never-ending China trade talks. Everyone’s “optimistic.”
Buy low
sell high.
Wall
Street saying, and stocks are high.
Today, as if it wasn’t
already coming fast enough, America determined to hasten and deepen our coming
global recession. In markets, getting out early beats getting carried out last.
“I got rich by selling too soon”
Bernard Baruch.
Asia shares weighed by cautious mood, oil settles
April 9, 2019 /
2:15 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) -
Asian shares struggled to make gains on Tuesday as investors braced for key
events later in the week, including the start of the U.S. earnings season and a
crucial Brexit summit, while broader concerns about slowing global growth
checked sentiment.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was basically
flat after brushing its highest since late August last year during the previous
session.
Japan’s Nikkei dipped 0.15 percent, while Australian shares and Chinese
blue chips held steady. E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 lost 0.15 percent.
Wall Street shares delivered a mixed performance on Monday, with the Dow
Jones Industrial Average losing 0.3 percent while the S&P 500 added 0.1
percent. Concerns over slowing U.S. earnings have undermined U.S. equities in
recent sessions, though a strong jobs report last week helped to soothe frayed
nerves.
The S&P 500, however, moved on its own momentum for its eight
straight session of gains and the longest winning streak since October 2017, as
rallying crude prices overnight lifted energy shares.
---- “The market is very much in a wait-and-watch mode,” said Nick Twidale, chief operating officer at Rakuten Securities Australia in Sydney.
“It’s looking for the next catalyst that’s hopefully going to take stock
markets higher, but it’s also very wary that we’ve had such a great run in
stocks and general growth that we might see a real sharp correction,” he said.
More
Oil prices hover near five-month highs as global markets tighten
April 9, 2019 /
2:08 AM
SINGAPORE
(Reuters) - Oil prices rose to fresh 5-month highs on Tuesday as markets
tightened amid OPEC-led supply cuts, U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela,
and escalating violence in Libya.
International benchmark Brent futures hit their strongest level since
last November at $71.34 per barrel, before easing to $71.18 per barrel by 0452
GMT, still 8 cents, or 0.1 percent, above their last close.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures also hit a November
2018 high, at $64.77 per barrel, before easing to $64.53, up 13 cents, or 0.2
percent.
Oil markets have tightened this year as the United States imposed
sanctions on oil exporters Iran and Venezuela while the producer club of the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has been withholding
supply to prop up prices.
Brent and WTI futures have risen by 40 percent and 30 percent
respectively since the start of the year.
Goldman Sachs said an oil supply deficit had opened up early this year.
“We expect the drivers of this deficit to persist through 2019” due to a
“shock and awe implementation of the OPEC cuts ... further tightening of U.S.
oil sanctions and an only moderate increase in shale production for now,” the
U.S. bank said in a note.
More
U.S. threatens tariffs on European wine and cheese in response to Airbus subsidies
By
Jeremy C.
Owens Published: Apr 8, 2019 7:03 p.m.
ET
The office of the
U.S. Trade Representative threatened to levy tariffs on many European goods
Monday afternoon as retaliation against European companies' subsidies for
aircraft manufacturer Airbus SE EADSY, +1.87%
The U.S. and EU have been battling about subsidies for more than a decade, with
the U.S. saying that European subsidies are unfair to U.S. manufacturer Boeing
Co. BA, -4.44%
"This case has been in litigation for 14 years, and the time has come for
action," U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said in a statement Monday.
Lighthizer's
office put forth a list of goods it is targeting for additional tariffs for public
comment, with the extra taxes expected to begin once a World Trade Organization
arbitrator signs off on a case looking at the total value of the Airbus
subsidies, which the U.S. says is about $11 billion. The list of goods that could face tariffs includes many
aviation parts, but also a long list of food, beverages and clothing, including
many wines and cheeses.
Japan faces recession risks with dearth of ammunition
April 8, 2019 /
9:39 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) -
Japan appears to have dodged a recession thanks to resilient business spending
but tanking factory and export sectors and a lack of policy options leave it
particularly vulnerable if a projected recovery in the global economy fails to
materialise.
If domestic growth crumbles, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe could postpone
yet again a scheduled sales tax hike in October or offer a modest increase in
fiscal spending, some analysts say.
The Bank of Japan, too, may be forced to ramp up monetary support,
though many analysts say the central bank is left with few effective tools to
prop up growth.
While the chances of such actions are small, they cannot be ruled out
given Japan’s exposure to economic swings in big export destinations like
China, analysts say.
“Chances are fifty-fifty that Abe may delay the sales tax hike again,”
said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute, who see
a 70 percent chance Japan may slide into recession.
“If the sales tax is delayed, the BOJ would come under pressure for
further easing.”
More extreme steps like using government spending as a primary policy
tool to boost employment and spur inflation - an idea dubbed “Modern Monetary
Theory” (MMT) backed by some U.S. academics and politicians - are off the table
for now, government officials say.
“There is no sense that someone is going to latch onto this and push for
a huge increase in fiscal spending,” a government official with direct
knowledge on economic policy-making said, when asked by Reuters about MMT.
More
Graphic: Whatever it takes, Part 2? - Five questions for the ECB
April 8, 2019 /
7:11 AM
LONDON (Reuters) -
Just a month after the European Central Bank halted plans to normalise policy
and delayed a rate increase into 2020, further signs of weakness in the economy
and a whiff of panic among investors is putting the central bank back in the
spotlight.
No policy changes are expected at Wednesday’s ECB meeting, especially
since some board members are travelling to Washington for the International
Monetary Fund’s spring meetings.
But talk of tiered rates to ease pressure on banks, global recession
fears and a sense of alarm that pushed 10-year German bond yields below zero
percent for the first time since 2016 suggest the ECB news conference may prove
lively.
We look at five key questions on the radar for markets:
1. How close is the ECB to action to offset the impact of negative
interest rates on banks?
A debate on whether to “tier” the negative interest rates that banks pay
on the idle cash they park at the ECB is now underway, judging by recent ECB
comments and the minutes from the March meeting.
“It’s not an obvious next step, but one that the ECB will have to face
at some point,” said James Rossiter, senior global strategist at TD Securities.
“We don’t expect anything official in the ECB’s statement, but it will be
difficult for (ECB chief Mario) Draghi to avoid questions on this.”
More
Finally,
it never rains but it pours. More rain and snow is the last thing mid-west
farmers and ranchers need following last month’s storm.
Floods, snows, avalanches and fires. Armageddon? No, just a ‘bomb cyclone’ for the Rockies
By Associated
Press Published: Apr 8, 2019 9:16
p.m. ET
HELENA, Mont. — Flood, snow, avalanche and fire alerts popped up Monday
from Idaho to Colorado, as parts of the U.S. interior that were paralyzed by
blizzards and floods last month braced for round two of an unusual weather
phenomenon.
Welcome to springtime in the Rockies and parts of the Great Plains.
It’s not unusual for floods, snow and fire to co-exist in the Rockies
thanks to powerful storms blowing through the mountains, melting snow swelling
waterways and high winds sweeping across dry grasslands and trees that haven’t
seen their first green shoots and leaves.
---- “This is the time of year when we get a roller coaster of weather,”
Colorado state climatologist Russ Schumacher said Monday. “Going from 80 degree
temperatures one day to a snowstorm the next is not that out of the ordinary,
especially in March and April, around here.”
But what is unusual is what’s coming next. A storm system that is moving
in from the Pacific Ocean is forecast to intensify and form into a new inland
“bomb cyclone.”
A bomb cyclone is a rapid drop in air pressure — at least 24 millibars
in 24 hours — and often is over or near oceans or seas because it requires warm
moist air smacking into cold dry air, along with volatile weather from the jet
stream. The central and mountain part of the country may get one of these every
few winters, said Greg Carbin, forecast branch chief for the National Weather
Service’s Weather Prediction Center in Maryland.
But this would be the second such storm in less than a month. The March
13 storm caused massive flooding in the Midwest, a blizzard in Colorado and
Wyoming, and produced winds of between 96 mph and 110 mph (155 and 177.02 kph).
This week’s bomb cyclone one is expected to be similar in intensity and
in snowfall, meteorologists said. Heavy, wet snow will fall from the Nebraska
panhandle through south central and southeastern South Dakota into western
Minnesota. Wind speeds can reach 50 mph to 60 mph (80 to 96 kph) across Kansas.
“This blizzard will further exacerbate flooding in Nebraska with the
added insult of heavy snowfall to eventually melt,” said Ryan Maue, a
meteorologist at the private weathermodels.com. “This is more bad news for
suffering farmers who are unable to flip the calendar on winter.”
But first, the storm is expected to
flooding in Idaho and western Montana, and dump up to 2 feet (61 centimeters)
feet of snow in the mountains of Montana and Wyoming as it moves in from the
Pacific Ocean. Parts of Colorado that were under a fire warning Monday are
expected to see snow and temperatures drops of more than 40 degrees by
Wednesday at the southern edge of the storm, meteorologists said.
More
No-one
rings a bell at the top.
Wall St
adage.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, the bad boys of the
modern world. The decline and fall of Rome?
“Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are
fearful”
Warren Buffett.
‘Morally bankrupt pathological liars’ at Facebook can’t be trusted, warns New Zealand’s privacy commissioner
New
Zealand privacy commissioner John Edwards didn’t hold back when he lashed out
at Facebook FB, -0.17% over the
weekend:
His comments, which have since been deleted, follow the livestream — and widespread sharing — of the shootings that left 50 people dead and dozens more injured in two Christchurch mosques on March 15.
Edwards wrote that “They #dontgiveazuck,” referring specifically to Facebook boss Mark Zuckerberg, who wouldn’t commit to any changes, such as delays, to the site’s live technology in an interview on ABC’s “Good Morning America” last week. Zuckerberg claimed that the live streaming of the Christchurch attacks were the result of “bad actors” and not bad technology.
“Most people are livestreaming, you know, a
birthday party or hanging out with friends when they can’t be together,”
Zuckerberg explained during the interview. “It’s one of the things that’s
magical about livestreaming is that it’s bi-directional, right? So you’re not
just broadcasting. You’re communicating. People are commenting back. So if you
had a delay, that would break that.”
On Monday in an interview on Radio New Zealand, Edwards talked about
Facebook’s reluctance to put appropriate systems in place. “This is a global
problem,” he said. “The events that were livestreamed in Christchurch could
happen anywhere in the world, and it’s a problem that governments need to come
together and force the platforms to have a solution for.”
LME introduces first code of conduct in its 142-year history
The move comes just six months after one of the London Metal Exchange’s clients hosted a cocktail party at the Playboy club in Mayfair
Updated: April 8, 2019 7:17 a.m. GMT
The London Metal Exchange is to introduce the first code of
conduct in its 142-year history, just six months after one of the trading
venue’s clients hosted a cocktail party at the Playboy club in Mayfair
using LME branding.The code will be applied to all staff at the world’s oldest and largest market for industrial metals, as well as members, guests and organisers of events that utilise the exchange’s branding.
The move, spearheaded by Matthew Chamberlain, chief executive of the LME, is intended to stamp out inappropriate behaviour and prevent any further embarrassment for the exchange after Gerald Group, a commodities trading firm, hosted the gathering at the Playboy club in October last year using the LME brand.
The 10-page code, seen by Financial News, specifies the exchange “would expect that all events carrying the LME brand take place at venues which promote an inclusive environment”.
Chamberlain said: “Cutting across all of this is the fact we all now know what we should be doing right.”
The exchange is particularly keen to crack down on inappropriate third-party events held during the annual LME Week, which is the world’s biggest gathering of the metals industry. Typically, organisers market events such as participating in football matches, pub drinks and more formal dinners.
The code of conduct reads: “LME-branded events should not take place at venues which, by the nature of entertainment offered or other activities undertaken, could make some market participants uncomfortable in attending that event.”
Chamberlain also pledged to be “more vigilant” about strip clubs using the LME Week branding to make “special offers” on social media. Last year, Secrets and Stringfellows, the London strip clubs, tweeted offers for LME Week attendees.
The code also carries the threat of disciplinary action for staff and members, and the LME has threatened to ban people from its premises for serious breaches of its standards. A line has also been opened to general counsel Tom Hine, for reporting breaches.
The code emphasises that the LME “does not tolerate harassment or threatening, humiliating or disruptive behaviour (verbal, physical, or sexual) towards others”. It reads: “Personal insults and demeaning comments are not acceptable, including inappropriate language related to gender, gender identity and expression, sexual orientation, disability, physical appearance, body size, race, background, age or religion.”
More
I just
wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over
there and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime”
Jim Rogers.
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Teaching computers to intelligently design 'billions' of possible materials
Date:
April 2, 2019
Source:
University of Missouri-Columbia
Summary:
Researchers are applying one of the first uses of deep learning -- the
technology computers use to intelligently perform tasks such as recognizing
language and driving autonomous vehicles -- to the field of materials science.
Discovering how atoms -- such as a single layer of carbon atoms found in
graphene, one of the world's strongest materials -- work to create a solid
material is currently a major research topic in the field of materials science,
or the design and discovery of new materials. At the University of Missouri,
researchers in the College of Engineering are applying one of the first uses of
deep learning -- the technology computers use to intelligently perform tasks
such as recognizing language and driving autonomous vehicles -- to the field of
materials science.
"You can train a computer to do what it would take many years for
people to otherwise do," said Yuan Dong, a research assistant professor of
mechanical and aerospace engineering and lead researcher on the study.
"This is a good starting point."
Dong worked with Jian Lin, an assistant professor of mechanical and
aerospace engineering, to determine if there was a way to predict the billions
of possibilities of material structures created when certain carbon atoms in
graphene are replaced with non-carbon atoms.
"If you put atoms in certain configurations, the material will
behave differently," Lin said. "Structures determine the properties.
How can you predict these properties without doing experiments? That's where
computational principles come in."
Lin and Dong partnered with Jianlin Cheng, a William and Nancy Thompson
Professor of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at MU, to input a few
thousand known combinations of graphene structures and their properties into
deep learning models. From there, it took about two days for the
high-performance computer to learn and predict the properties of the billions
of other possible structures of graphene without having to test each one
separately.
Researchers envision future uses of this artificial intelligence
assistive technology in designing many different graphene related or other
two-dimensional materials. These materials could be applied to the construction
of LED televisions, touch screens, smartphones, solar cells, missiles and
explosive devices.
"Give an intelligent computer system any design, and it can predict
the properties," Cheng said. "This trend is emerging in the material
science field. It's a great example of applying artificial intelligence to
change the standard process of material design in this field."
“At the
start of a bear market, nobody knows it is a bear market – they just think it
is a correction”
Marc Faber.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished March
DJIA: 25,929 +54 Down. NASDAQ: 7,729 +94 Down.
SP500: 2,834
+53 Down.
Normally this
would suggest more correction still to come, but with President Trump wanting
to be judged by the performance of the stock market and the Fed’s Plunge
Protection Team now officially part of President Trump’s re-election team,
probably the safest action here is fully paid up synthetic double options on
most of the major indexes.
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