Thursday, 4 April 2019

Ding, Ding, Ding, Round 9.


Baltic Dry Index. 672 -02    Brent Crude 69.28

Car Crash Brexit now reset 8 days away, maybe.  Day 125 of the never-ending China trade talks. Everyone’s “optimistic.”

The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.

Winston Churchill

Day 125 of the never-ending USA v China trade talks and as usual, everyone is optimistic. Whatever else it proves, it proves that while trade wars may be easy to win, they’re not quick to win, and President Trump hasn’t even started messing with Europe yet, except to have his German ambassador start a fight with Germany over Nord Stream 2 and NATO.

Below round 9 of the never-ending trade talks. I’d have thought by now that both sides would have run out of things to talk about, but there you go, bureaucrats.

The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.

Winston Churchill

Asian markets mixed as U.S.-China trade talks resume

Asian markets were mixed in early trading Thursday, as the U.S. and China kicked off a new round of trade talks in Washington.

China’s chief negotiator, Liu He, was scheduled to meet with President Donald Trump on Thursday, and Larry Kudlow, Trump’s top economic adviser, expressed optimism that the two sides can come closer to a final agreement this week.

Japan’s Nikkei NIK, +0.04%   rose 0.2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HSI, -0.52%   retreated 0.5%. The Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, +0.56%   gained 0.4%, and South Korea’s Kospi SEU, +0.19%   advanced 0.2%. Singapore’s Straits Times Index STI, -0.14%   fell slightly, while Indonesia’s JSX JAKIDX, +0.36%   gained. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 XJO, -0.91%   fell 0.8%
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Kudlow hopeful that U.S., China will ‘get closer’ to trade deal as talks resume

By Associated Press  Published: Apr 3, 2019 11:58 p.m. ET
WASHINGTON — The U.S. and China opened a ninth round of talks Wednesday, aiming to further narrow differences in an ongoing trade war that has deepened uncertainty for businesses and investors and cast a pall over the outlook for the global economy.

The latest negotiating session on American soil follows a similar set of talks held last week in Beijing.

Larry Kudlow, a top White House economic adviser, said “good headway” was made when U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin met in the Chinese capital with a delegation headed by Vice Premier Liu He, a confidant of President Xi Jinping.

Liu will meet with President Donald Trump on Thursday afternoon, according to a White House schedule posted Wednesday. The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday night that the announcement of a summit date between Trump and Xi — potentially to sign a trade deal — is “likely” to emerge from that meeting.

Kudlow expressed optimism that the parties would narrow the areas of disagreement further this week.

“They’ll be here for three days, maybe more,” he told reporters at a roundtable sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor.

Others said they’ve been encouraged by the tone of the negotiations thus far.

Myron Brilliant, head of international affairs at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, estimated Tuesday that the two sides are 90% of the way to an agreement but cautioned that “the last 10% is the hardest part, the trickiest part.”
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In European news, the Brexit muddle gets more Bizarre with each sitting of the Commons, not for nothing usually called the longest running farce in the world. Struggling Deutsche Bank never turned away a deposit it couldn’t launder, it seems.

“The maxim of the British people is ‘Business as usual.'”

Winston Churchill. [Same at DB apparently.]

EU cannot keep granting two-week Brexit delays - Timmermans

April 3, 2019 / 11:05 PM
BERLIN (Reuters) - The European Union cannot keep delaying Britain’s departure from the bloc by another two weeks, the deputy head of the European Commission said in remarks published on Thursday.

First Vice President Frans Timmermans told Germany’s Die Welt newspaper that the European Union had reached the limit of what it can offer Britain in terms of concessions to break the deadlock.

“We cannot forever continue this way in the Brexit negotiations and always extend by two weeks,” he said. “The British parliament must now make a decision and finally say what London wants.”

He added: “The key is not with London. We have a commitment toward EU citizens, to protect the EU single market, to protect Ireland and protect the principles of the European Union.

“We will continue to do this with all determination. The EU also has its limits. And we have reached those limits.”

He said it was important that British Prime Minister Theresa May and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn reach a deal to overcome the deadlock created by parliament’s rejection of an exit deal May had reached with the EU.
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Labour's Corbyn says Theresa May has not moved enough on Brexit

April 3, 2019 / 10:18 AM
LONDON (Reuters) - Opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said on Wednesday that Prime Minister Theresa May had not moved far enough in a first round of crisis talks aimed at breaking the domestic deadlock over Britain’s exit from the European Union.

The United Kingdom was supposed to leave the EU last Friday but, nearly three years after it voted by 52 percent to 48 for Brexit in a referendum, it is still unclear how, when or even whether it will quit the bloc it joined in 1973. 

After her EU withdrawal deal was rejected three times by lawmakers, the Conservative prime minister invited Corbyn, a veteran socialist, to talks in parliament to try to plot a way out of the crisis.

“There hasn’t been as much change as I expected,” Corbyn, 69, said. “The meeting was useful but inconclusive.”
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Deutsche Bank's U.S. Unit Kept Danske's Shady Billions Flowing

By Tom Schoenberg, Jesse Hamilton, and Sonali Basak
3 April 2019, 05:01 BST
Years before regulators learned about what may be one of the biggest money-laundering pipelines in history, low-level bank employees in Jacksonville, Florida, sounded repeated alarms.

Compliance workers for Deutsche Bank AG flagged some of at least $150 billion in transactions that the bank’s U.S. subsidiary handled for a tiny Estonian unit of Danske Bank A/S, according to a former compliance officer.

It’s not clear how urgently the Florida team warned executives at Deutsche Bank Trust Co. Americas. But when workers sought broader scrutiny of certain clients, they got a familiar response from some higher-ups, the officer said: Shut up, focus on the transaction in front of you, file your paperwork and move on.

Internal documents, court records and interviews with dozens of people -- including more than 20 current and former employees of the troubled German lender -- show that its U.S. unit largely resisted strict money-laundering compliance for years. The insider accounts help explain why Deutsche’s U.S. subsidiary kept handling Danske’s business after competitors quit.

Although U.S. executives routinely promised regulators they’d get tough, former staffers say such efforts were often disregarded in favor of cozy relationships with overseas customers. The suspicious billions kept flowing -- not just from Danske’s Estonian branch, but from various clients that would eventually be snared in other global money-laundering scandals.

How Dirty Russian Money Swamped Europe’s Banks: QuickTake

Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank, which is in talks to merge with Commerzbank AG after years of losses, declined to address allegations about its past practices. But the bank said in a statement that its U.S. operations “have increased our anti-financial crime staff and enhanced our controls in recent years.” The lender takes compliance with money-laundering laws and related provisions seriously, it said. In the Danske case, bank executives have said they’re cooperating with investigators in multiple jurisdictions and that they met their legal obligations as they dealt with the Danish lender from 2007 to 2015.

“Their defense would have more appeal if Deutsche Bank didn’t have such a poor track record,” said Jimmy Gurulé, a former undersecretary for enforcement in the U.S. Treasury Department and a professor at Notre Dame Law School. “There’s been one problem after another.”
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-03/deutsche-bank-s-u-s-unit-kept-danske-s-shady-billions-flowing?srnd=premium-europe

Finally, oil, fifteen years late are we finally on the cusp of peak oil? Is Ghawar starting to fail?

Saudi mystery: World's largest oil field is fading faster than anyone knew

By Javier Blas April 3, 2019 — 8.02am
It was a state secret and the source of a kingdom's riches. It was so important that US military planners once debated how to seize it by force. For oil traders, it was a source of endless speculation.

Now the market finally knows: Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, the world's largest conventional oil field, can produce a lot less than almost anyone believed.

When Saudi Aramco on Monday published its first ever profit figures since its nationalisation nearly 40 years ago, it also lifted the veil of secrecy around its mega oil fields. The company's bond prospectus revealed that Ghawar is able to pump a maximum of 3.8 million barrels a day -- well below the more than 5 million that had become conventional wisdom in the market.

"As Saudi's largest field, a surprisingly low production capacity figure from Ghawar is the stand-out of the report," said Virendra Chauhan, head of upstream at consultant Energy Aspects in Singapore.

The Energy Information Administration, a US government body that provides statistical information and often is used as a benchmark by the oil market, listed Ghawar's production capacity at 5.8 million barrels a day in 2017. Aramco, in a presentation in Washington in 2004 when it tried to debunk the "peak oil" supply theories of the late US oil banker Matt Simmons, also said the field was pumping more than 5 million barrels a day, and had been doing so since at least the previous decade.

The prospectus offered no information about why Ghawar can produce today a quarter less than 15 years ago - a significant reduction for any oil field. The report also didn't say whether capacity would continue to decline at a similar rate in the future.

Aramco wasn't immediately able to comment.

The new maximum production rate for Ghawar means that the Permian in the US, which pumped 4.1 million barrels a day last month according to government data, is already the largest oil production basin. The comparison isn't exact - the Saudi field is a conventional reservoir, while the Permian is an unconventional shale formation - yet it shows the shifting balance of power in the market.

Ghawar is so important for Saudi Arabia because the field has "accounted for more than half of the total cumulative crude oil production in the kingdom," according to the bond prospectus. The country has been pumping since the discovery of the Dammam No. 7 well in 1938.

On top of Ghawar, which was found in 1948 by an American geologist, Saudi Arabia relies heavily on two other mega-fields: Khurais, which was discovered in 1957, and can pump 1.45 million barrels a day, and Safaniyah, found in 1951 and still today the world's largest offshore oil field with capacity of 1.3 million. In total, Aramco operates 101 oilfields.
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https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/saudi-mystery-world-s-largest-oil-field-is-fading-faster-than-anyone-knew-20190403-p51a6m.html

Ghawar Field

Ghawar (Arabic: الغوار) is an oil field located in Al-Ahsa Governorate, Eastern Province, Saudi Arabia. Measuring 280 by 30 km (174 by 19 mi), it is by far the largest conventional oil field in the world,[1] and accounts for more than half of the cumulative oil production of Saudi Arabia.[2]

Ghawar is entirely owned and operated by Saudi Aramco, the state run Saudi oil company. Relatively little technical information is publicly available, because the company and Saudi government closely guard field performance data and per-field production details. Available information is predominantly historical (pre-nationalization), from incidental technical publications, or anecdotal. As Ali Al-Naimi states the highly restricted information "...isn't even known within the Kingdom outside of the oil ministry and Saudi Aramco...we continue to consider many details of our oil and gas reservoir characteristics the equivalent of state secrets.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghawar_Field

“The English never draw a line without blurring it.”

Winston Churchill.

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Tired of Brexit, Brino, never-ending USA v China Trade talks, and Trump exonerations, today we focus on a Malaysian scandal that’s got some top former politicians squirming in the dock.

Malaysia to sell 1MDB-linked superyacht for $126 million

April 3, 2019 / 3:47 AM
KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) - Malaysia will sell a superyacht allegedly bought with stolen funds from state fund 1MDB to casino operator Genting Malaysia Bhd for $126 million (95.7 million pounds), in the first major asset sale by Kuala Lumpur to recover billions lost from the fund.

The superyacht Equanimity is among assets allegedly bought by fugitive financier Low Taek Jho and his associates with money taken from the fund, U.S. and Malaysian investigators have said.

Jho Low, as he is known, allegedly paid $250 million for the 300-ft (91-m) yacht, which has an interior clad in marble and gold leaf, a spa and sauna, a 20-metre swimming pool, a movie theatre and helipad.

Malaysia set a minimum price tag of $130 million when it put the yacht up for sale in October, but had struggled to find a buyer.

“Many offers were received...and a few were over $100 million,” Attorney General Tommy Thomas said in a statement on Wednesday, adding that Genting would pay the $126 million by the end of April.

The government would save $4.4 million in agent’s commission since it negotiated directly with Genting Malaysia, he added.

A spokesman for Low called the sale “a failed PR stunt”, saying Malaysia had accepted a “bargain basement sale price”.

In a statement, Genting said the acquisition would give it “a unique and competitive edge for its premium customers business.” The purchase will not affect 2019 earnings, it said.

1MDB, founded by former prime minister Najib Razak, is being investigated by at least six countries for money laundering and corruption.

The U.S. Department of Justice has said about $4.5 billion siphoned from 1MDB was used by Low and his associates to buy the yacht, a private jet, as well as Picasso paintings, jewellery, and real estate.

Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, after his stunning victory in last year’s election, has vowed to recover the money allegedly stolen from 1MDB.

Malaysian police have issued an arrest warrant and filed criminal charges against Low, but his whereabouts are unknown.

“Evils can be created much quicker than they can be cured.”

Winston Churchill.


Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

Saudi Arabia shines a light on future of solar power

April 3 2019
DUBAI: Saudi Arabia is embracing a new, more efficient way to harness solar power for electricity, inspired by its role as the main developer in one of the world’s largest renewable energy projects, the Mohammed bin Rashid Al-Maktoum Solar Park in Dubai.
Concentrated solar power (CSP), which makes up a large part of the project, has become the new buzzword in sustainable and renewable energy thanks to its ability to store heat and meet electricity demands at night.
The Kingdom will use its experience in the Dubai project as the basis for its own first hybrid project, which is under construction in the northern industrial city of Waad Al-Shamal and will include 50 megawatts (MW) of CSP.
“Saudi Arabia is watching this new project in Dubai in detail as its tariff and scale have attracted the Kingdom’s attention,” said Abdulhameed Al-Muhaidib, director of asset management at Saudi Arabia’s ACWA Power, and executive managing director of Dubai-based Noor Energy 1, one of the world’s largest renewable energy plants.
CSP technology is being used as part of the fourth phase of the Dubai project, the largest single-site solar park in the world, with a total capacity of 950 MW, comprising 700 MW from CSP and 250 MW from photovoltaic (PV) solar power.
ACWA Power is working as the main developer, using its experience to help further future CSP projects in the Kingdom.
“I’m sure that in the next phase of Saudi bids there will be CSP components,” said Al-Muhaidib. “It has been announced that 2,700 MW of an upcoming Saudi project will be full CSP, but the detailed timing hasn’t been announced yet. There are more plans for it, and we’re looking forward to working on that.”
The first batch of projects announced by Saudi Arabia has been in wind and PV. Another seven to nine projects are announced for 2019, all of which are PV.
“The reason (for turning to CSP) is very simple — it’s driven by the tariff, where PV and wind have already internationally given a lower tariff and are basically cheaper compared with conventional energy,” Al-Muhaidib said on the sidelines of a recent press conference announcing details of the fourth phase of the Dubai solar park.
“But for the first time, the price for the new CSP technology has gone under double digits, reaching 7.3 cents per kilowatt hour.”
The project is located in Seih Al-Dahal, 50 km south of Dubai, and is expected to be completed by 2030.
---- With CSP, sunlight hits a mirror, and is then reflected on to a receiver. In the receiver, a liquid is heated, which drives a steam turbine connected to an electrical power generator.
“It’s a completely different technology because you have to do a heat exchange and (use) steam turbines, a process that makes it more expensive than solar PV,” Al-Muhaidib said.
“The main benefit is storage because you can store heat, while in panels you can’t and lithium batteries are still expensive.”
Large molten salt tanks with a storage capacity of up to 15 hours store the heat and, consequently, allow electricity to be used at night.
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Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery.

Winston Churchill

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished February 

DJIA: 25,916 +68 Down. NASDAQ: 7,533 +109 Down. SP500: 2,784 +62 Down. 

Normally this would suggest more correction still to come, but with President Trump wanting to be judged by the performance of the stock market and the Fed’s Plunge Protection Team now officially part of President Trump’s re-election team, probably the safest action here is fully paid up synthetic double options on most of the major indexes.

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