Monday, 15 April 2019

Trump – Dow 36,000. Democrats -Free Everything.


Baltic Dry Index. 726 -02    Brent Crude 71.39

Never ending Brexit now October 31, maybe.  Day 136 of the never-ending China trade talks. Everyone’s still “optimistic.”

“Socialism only works in two places: Heaven where they don’t need it and hell where they already have it.”

Ronald Reagan.

If it wasn’t for the bad Fed, says President Trump, the DJIA should be at 36,000.  Chairman Powell you have your target, get on with it.

While President Trump targets the Fed and the stock market, the House Democrats and the hundreds of hopefuls running for President against President Trump, are targeting Wall Street, more specifically Wall Street’s banksters.

Taking up the policies of free everything, class warfare, and generational change,  that worked so well for UK’s Comrade Corbyn at the last UK general election, the Democrats hope to sweep the Senate and ride a wave of wealth envy right into the White House. A vicious 18 month campaign lies ahead.

Not that this worrying Asian markets this morning, busy salivating over the prospects of that long awaited USA v China trade deal.

 "Why did Comrade Agent Corbyn stare at the bottle of orange juice for two hours? Because the label said concentrate."

Czech StB report, with apologies to Ken Dodd and blondes.

Asian shares near nine-month highs, helped by U.S. optimism on China trade talks

April 15, 2019 / 2:00 AM
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian shares neared nine-month highs on Monday after U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he hoped U.S.-China trade talks were approaching a final lap, while strong Chinese export and bank loan data boosted confidence in the global economy.

The consequent improvement in risk appetite resulted in the dollar easing against other major currencies. 

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan climbed 0.6 percent to its highest since late July. Chinese shares led the growth with the blue-chip CSI300 index rising 2.2 percent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 1.2 percent while South Korea’s KOSPI rose 0.7 percent. Japan’s Nikkei also joined the party, gaining 1.4 percent to the highest since early December.

“Stocks bulls certainly have the wind at their backs with improving growth but steady inflation, reduced trade tensions and a solid/better-than-feared Q1 earnings season,” JPMorgan analysts said in a note.

The rally follows on from strong finish on Wall Street on Friday as investors cheered Chinese data showing exports rebounded in March to a five-month high while new bank loans jumped by far more than expected.

Investors also welcomed positive headlines on the Sino-U.S. trade talk as well.
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Donald Trump: The stock market should be as much as 10,000 points higher

By Shawn Langlois  Published: Apr 14, 2019 9:46 p.m. ET
The value of the U.S. stock market has risen by $9.1 trillion, or 35.6%, since Election Day in 2016, according to Wilshire Associates.

For President Donald Trump, that’s not nearly enough.

Lately, he’s been blasting the Federal Reserve for raising rates, and he’s steadily urged the central banks to revert to the policies that supported the market during the last crisis, including the resumption of the Fed’s bond-buying program.

“I would say in terms of quantitative tightening, it should actually now be quantitative easing,” he said last week. “You would see a rocket ship.”

On Sunday, he put numbers to that potential “rocket ship” rally:

‘If the Fed had done its job properly, which it has not, the Stock Market would have been up 5000 to 10,000 additional points, and GDP would have been well over 4% instead of 3%... with almost no inflation. Quantitative tightening was a killer, should have done the exact opposite!’

---- The Dow Jones Industrial DJIA, +1.03% riding strong bank earnings, closed up almost 270 points to 26,412.30 on Friday — another 10,000 points would put the index well above the 36,000 level. The Dow’s all-time high is 26,951.81.

With White House in their sights, Democrats challenge Wall Street

Date created :
On the campaign trail and in Congress, Democrats are challenging the titans of Wall Street, proclaiming a "new day" as they seek to channel the anger of their party and voters that has raged since the financial crisis.

CEOs of America's biggest banks were summoned for the first time since the 2008 crisis by a congressional committee on Wednesday, raising their hands as they swore their oaths ahead of their testimony.

It was a powerful image that underscored the recent change in control of the House of Representatives, which came under Democratic control in January after eight years of Republican rule.

"This is a new way and it's a new day," said Maxine Waters, the first woman and first African American to chair the powerful House Financial Services Committee.

Tim Sloan, the former CEO of Wells Fargo, testified at a previous hearing in March.

This time, it was the turn of the heads of Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase & Co, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, State Street Corporation, BNY Mellon and Goldman Sachs.

Waters had previously tangled with some of them at the peak of the crisis, when the global financial system was imperiled.

The current round of cross-examinations has less to do with the stabilization of the financial system and more the social impact of Wall Street.

"You, captains of the universe, are smart enough and creative enough and understand this business enough to see what you can do about these citizens, these young people," said Waters.

Some of the Democrats on the committee have focused on spotlighting the gap between these executives, all male, white and fabulously wealthy, and the rest of society -- a tactic criticized by the panel's ranking Republican as headline-seeking.

In one probing exchange, Nydia Velazquez, a Democrat of New York, pressed Citigroup Chief Executive Michael Corbat to justify his 2018 pay of $24.2 million, an estimated 486 times that of the average employee.

Corbat said his pay was set by the board of directors and that, if he were an average employee who observed the yawning gap, "I would be hopeful that there's the opportunity to continue to advance."

"This is why people who live in a bubble and in an ivory tower cannot understand the anger out there, especially among millennials," Velasquez shot back.

- Counter-attack -

It is this groundswell of anger, despite sold growth figures and plentiful employment, that Democrats are hoping to tap not only to keep their House majority in 2020 but also to seize the Senate -- and the White House.

Wall Street and its big bosses are already a key part the of the presidential campaigns of several candidates vying for the Democratic nomination, spearheaded by ultra-progressives Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.
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Goldman Sachs: Trump has 'narrow' shot in 'close call' election bid

Javier E. David April 14, 2019
President Donald Trump holds a “narrow” electoral advantage heading into 2020, according to Goldman Sachs, with his chances buoyed by a resilient U.S. economy and a crowded Democratic field in which a clear frontrunner has yet to emerge.

In a comprehensive report released late Saturday, the investment bank gave its preliminary thoughts on a general election that’s still more than a year away.

While Trump reelection is far from assured, Goldman’s economists believe the president is bolstered by “the advantage of first-term incumbency and the relatively strong economic performance,” in what is sure to be a “close call” election.

Trump’s approval ratings remain mired below 50%, as new crises appear to engulf his administration on a near daily basis. Meanwhile, early reads on the November 2020 ballot suggest the incumbent faces an uphill climb in his reelection bid.

Yet with more than 20 Democrats vying to replace him, voter turnout uncertain and the likely emergence of an independent candidate suggest that “President Trump is more likely to win a second term than the eventual Democratic candidate is to defeat him,” Goldman wrote.

“While we believe the majority of market participants expect President Trump to win a second term, we note that prediction markets point in the opposite direction and imply that the Democratic candidate has a 56% probability of winning and the Republican candidate has a 44% chance,” the bank said.
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It might be time to start adding to gold and silver holdings again. The prospect of a Comrade Corbyn government in GB and a Democratic Socialist government in the USA, and chaos in the rump-EU is looming into view.

Comrade Corbyn’s New Communist Labour Party: Nationalisation, Taxing and impoverishing the many, for the increased pay of the unionised few.

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

As China opens its Auto Show this week amid falling sale in China, Germany manages to trash its auto reputation yet again. Still after Brexit will anyone in GB be able to afford a German motor? And if President Trump imposes auto tariffs on EU autos, will anyone in America, either?

Global car makers face bumpy road as China hosts auto show

Date created : 14/04/2019
Global car makers flock to the Shanghai Auto Show this week with the world's largest vehicle market facing an unfamiliar sales slump just as China veers toward an ultra-competitive electric future.

Fuelled by rising incomes and government sales incentives, China has been the golden goose upon which the global automotive industry has staked its future.

But after years of strong growth, car sales fell last year for the first time since the 1990s, hit by a slowing economy, US trade tension, and a Chinese crackdown on shady credit practices that has crimped car-financing channels.

Sales dipped 2.8 percent in 2018 to 28.1 million units, according to that China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), a pace that has accelerated in recent months.

"This is the first time since the takeoff of the Chinese market that there has been such a long and sharp decline in sales," said Laurent Petizon, an auto analyst at Alix Partners.

"We are starting to worry a little bit. It's a new phenomenon."

The decline is magnified by a prior buying rush as consumers moved to beat the government's recent removal of tax rebates for small car purchases.

- Cut-throat -

Major carmakers still see solid potential, particularly in bright spots such as SUVs and electric vehicles, which will account for many of the new models on display in Shanghai.

But cut-throat competition is expected to intensify even in EVs with Beijing moving to phase out policies that encourage the purchase of "green" vehicles.

This mixed picture -- optimism combined with worrying new realities -- is reflected in the plans of carmakers like Ford.

The US manufacturer this month announced plans to launch 30 new models in China within three years, a dozen electric.

But it also unveiled a strategy to cater more directly to the evolving needs of Chinese car buyers.

This includes incorporating the artificial intelligence technology of China's Baidu into Ford vehicles, giving Ford's Chinese joint ventures more freedom on design choices, and other steps.

Although China is the world's largest "new energy" vehicle market and sales soared 62 percent last year, they remain a drop in the China bucket with 1.3 million units sold, thanks in part to purchasing incentives.

But they represent the future for China, especially with the government planning to impose quotes requiring carmakers maintain a certain percentage of new energy vehicles in their Chinese production.

This has given rise to a number of Chinese EV start-ups seeking to stake out territory that will have to face off against the likes of Tesla.
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China’s electric-vehicle ambitions in spotlight at Shanghai auto show

Published: Apr 14, 2019 9:23 p.m. ET

BEIJING — This year’s Shanghai auto show highlights the global industry’s race to make electric cars Chinese drivers want to buy as Beijing winds down subsidies that promoted sales.

Communist leaders are shifting the burden to automakers by imposing mandatory sales targets for electrics, adding to financial pressure on them amid a painful sales slump. Chinese purchases of pure-electric and hybrid sedans and SUVs soared 60% last year to 1.3 million — half the global total — but overall auto sales shrank 4.1% to 23.7 million.

Buyers of electrics were lured with subsidies of up to 50,000 yuan ($7,400) per car, but that support was cut by half in January and ends next year.
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German motor authority probes more Mercedes emissions software - Bild

April 14, 2019 / 11:33 AM
BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany’s motor vehicle authority KBA is investigating Daimler on suspicion that 60,000 Mercedes cars were fitted with software aimed at tricking emissions tests, the Bild am Sonntag newspaper reported on Sunday. 

A spokesman for Daimler, owner of Mercedes-Benz, said the carmaker was reviewing the facts and fully cooperating with the KBA.

Bild am Sonntag said the KBA was looking into suspicious software in Mercedes-Benz GLK 220 CDI cars produced between 2012 and 2015, after tests showed they only meet emissions limits when a certain function is activated.

Since rival Volkswagen admitted in 2015 to cheating U.S. emissions tests, the scandal has spread to other carmakers. Daimler has ordered the recall of 3 million vehicles to fix excess emissions coming from their diesel engines.

Bild am Sonntag said the KBA found that the function it had discovered had been removed during software updates carried out by Daimler.

The Daimler spokesman said the company had complied with a process agreed upon with the KBA and German Transport Ministry when updating software for the 3 million recalled vehicles.

“The allegation that we wanted to hide something with the voluntary service measure is incorrect,” he said.

This month European Union antitrust regulators charged BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen with colluding to block the rollout of emissions-cleaning technology.

“When it becomes serious, you have to lie.”

Comrade Corbyn, with apologies to Jean-Claude Juncker. Failed former Luxembourg P.M., serial liar, president of the European Commission. Scotch connoisseur.

Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

How to solve the plastic packaging paradox

10 April 2019
Today, plastic packaging has a bad (w)rap.

But the first commercially viable version of the now ubiquitous material - cellophane - was conceived in a more innocent age, before anyone worried about plastic in landfill, or the sea, or the food chain.

It begins in 1904, at an upmarket restaurant in Vosges, France, when an elderly patron spilled red wine over a pristine linen tablecloth.

Sitting at a nearby table was a Swiss chemist called Jacques Brandenberger, who worked for a French textile company. As he watched the waiter change the tablecloth, he wondered about designing a fabric that would simply wipe clean.

He tried spraying cellulose on tablecloths but it peeled off in transparent sheets. But might those transparent sheets have a market?

By World War One, he'd found one: eye-pieces for gas masks.

He called his invention "cellophane" and in 1923 he sold the rights to the DuPont corporation in America.

Its early uses there included wrapping chocolates, perfume and flowers.

But DuPont had a problem. Some customers weren't happy. They'd been told cellophane was waterproof, and it was, but it wasn't moisture-proof.

Candies stuck to it; knives rusted in it; cigars dried out.

DuPont hired a 27-year-old chemist, William Hale Charch, and tasked him with finding a solution.
Within a year, he'd done it - the cellophane was coated with extremely thin layers of nitrocellulose, wax, a plasticiser and a blending agent.

Sales took off.

The timing was perfect. In the 1930s, supermarkets were changing - customers no longer queued to tell shop assistants what food they required. They picked products off the shelves instead.

See-through packaging was a hit. And, as Harvard Business School researcher Ai Hisano points out, had "a significant impact not only on how consumers purchased foods but also on how they understood food quality".

Cellophane let them choose food on the basis of how it looked, without sacrificing hygiene or freshness.

One study - admittedly funded by DuPont - found that wrapping crackers in cellophane boosted sales by more than half.

And retailers had no shortage of similar advice. "She buys meat with her eyes," said a 1938 edition of The Progressive Grocer.

In fact, the meat counter was the hardest to make self-service. The problem was that meat, once cut, would quickly discolour.

But trials suggested a self-service meat counter could sell 30% more food.

With such an incentive, solutions were found: pink-tinted lighting, antioxidant additives and - of course - an improved version of cellophane, which let through just the right amount of oxygen.

By 1949, DuPont adverts boasted about the "pleasing new way" to buy meat - "pre-cut, weighed, priced and wrapped in cellophane right in the store".

But cellophane would soon fall out of fashion, overtaken by the likes of Dow Chemical's polyvinylidene chloride.

Like its predecessor, this was an accidental discovery first used in conflict - in this case, weatherproofing fighter planes in World War Two.

And, like cellophane, it needed plenty of research and development before it could be used on food - it was originally dark green and smelled disgusting.

Once Dow sorted that out, it hit the market as Saran Wrap - now more widely known as cling film.
After health scares with polyvinylidene chloride, cling film is now often made with low-density polyethylene, though that's less, well, clingy.

It's also used to make those single-use supermarket bags now being banned around the world.

High-density polyethylene is the kind of stuff you might get milk in.
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In Comrade Corbyn’s New Communist Labour Party, “Never have so many, been lied to, over so much, by so few Corbyn communists.”
With apologies to W. S. Churchill & the RAF.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished March

DJIA: 25,929 +54 Down. NASDAQ: 7,729 +94 Down. SP500: 2,834 +53 Down. 

Normally this would suggest more correction still to come, but with President Trump wanting to be judged by the performance of the stock market and the Fed’s Plunge Protection Team now officially part of President Trump’s re-election team, probably the safest action here is fully paid up synthetic double options on most of the major indexes.

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