Baltic
Dry Index. 2814 -31 Brent Crude 63.16
Spot Gold 4250 US 2 Year Yield 3.52 +0.03
US Federal Debt. 38.369 trillion
US GDP 31.619 trillion.
The demand for money is regulated entirely by its value, and its value by its quantity.
David Ricardo
In the stock casinos, has next week’s interest rate cut by the US central bank already been fully priced in?
What if later today the personnel consumption expenditure index issues an inflation upward surprise. Don’t even go there.
Asia-Pacific markets slide after subdued Wall
Street session
Published Thu, Dec 4 2025 6:53 PM EST
Asia-Pacific markets opened lower Friday
following a subdued Wall Street session.
Australia’s ASX/S&P 200 fell 0.17%.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index lost 1.36%,
while the Topix declined 1.12%. Yields on the Japanese 10-year government bond
rose to 1.94%, the highest since July 2007, data from LSEG showed.
South Korea’s Kospi hovered just below the
flatline, while the Kosdaq Index retreated 0.25%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined
0.48%, while mainland CSI 300 was flat at the open.
Shares of Moore Threads, a Beijing-based
graphics processing unit (GPU) manufacturer often referred to as “China’s
Nvidia,” soared by more than 400% on its debut in Shanghai following its $1.1
billion listing.
Markets are watching tech stocks closely
amid recent concerns of a bubble. Shares of SoftBank rose nearly 4%,
posting the third straight day of gains. The stock pared some gains and was
last trading 1.02% higher.
Founder Masayoshi Son on Monday downplayed
the decision to offload the conglomerate’s entire Nvidia stake, saying he
“was crying” over parting with the shares.
India’s Nifty 50 rose 0.2% after the Reserve
Bank of India cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%, matching
forecasts from economists polled by Reuters.
The monetary policy committee delivered a
unanimous reduction, citing “weakness in some key economic indicators,” even as
headline inflation has eased significantly and is expected to be revised lower
in the first quarter of 2025, said RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra.
Overnight in the U.S., the three major
averages traded mixed. The S&P
500 and Nasdaq
Composite rose slightly as investors prepared for next week’s interest
rate decision from the Federal Reserve.
The broad-based index inched up 0.11% to
close at 6,857.12, while the Nasdaq
Composite traded higher by just 0.22% to finish at 23,505.14.
The Dow Jones Industrial
Average slipped just 31.96 points, 0.07%, to 47,850.94.
Asia-Pacific
markets live: Kospi, Nikkei 225, Nifty 50
S&P 500, Nasdaq close higher, extending gains
for third day as investors await next week’s rate decision
Updated Thu, Dec 4 2025 4:20 PM EST
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose
slightly on Thursday as investors prepared for next week’s interest rate
decision from the Federal Reserve.
The broad-based index inched up 0.11% to
close at 6,857.12, while the Nasdaq
Composite traded higher by just 0.22% to finish at 23,505.14.
The Dow Jones Industrial
Average slipped just 31.96 points, 0.07%, to 47,850.94.
Treasury yields moved higher, while bitcoin resumed selling,
pulling back 0.5%. The cryptocurrency dipped below $85,000 on Monday, hitting
its lowest
level since March. But, the token rebounded early Tuesday and has continued
to trade above the $90,000 level through the week, offering a glimmer of hope
to downtrodden crypto investors.
Investors focused on a report from job
placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showing announced job cuts in
November from U.S. employers moved further ahead of 1 million for the year as
corporate restructuring, artificial intelligence and tariffs helped pare job
rolls. On Wednesday, numbers from ADP revealed
a surprising slump in private payrolls.
Mounting signs that the labor market is
softening has led Wall Street to be convinced the Fed will cut rates a quarter
percentage point at its Dec. 10 meeting, the last of the year. Markets are
pricing in an 87% chance of a cut next Wednesday, far higher than just a couple
weeks ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
“The markets have done well year to date,
with strength in the back half of November, and I think it wouldn’t be
surprising to me to see markets just kind of move sideways from here” said Tim
Holland, chief investment officer at Orion. “The big news is the 25 basis point
rate cut, but that’s been so widely telegraphed, I’d be shocked if we didn’t
get it. The market expects it. So, maybe after a great 11 months and some
recent volatility, we’re just marking time, maybe even into year-end, and then
we’ll see how 2026 kicks off.”
On Thursday, investors largely overlooked
the latest weekly jobless claims numbers that showed new applications for
unemployment insurance at their lowest level since Sept. 2022. Jobless claims for
the week ended Nov. 29 totaled a seasonally adjusted 191,000, down 27,000 from
the prior period and below the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 220,000.
“With each data point that tells us the
bottom isn’t falling out, I think the markets breathe a sigh of relief. Even
though the initial claims data today was skewed by the Thanksgiving holiday, I
think that was very well received,” Holland added. “I don’t think you’re going
to get any data that knocks the Fed off of a cut next week between now and
then.”
Other important economic releases this
week come Friday when the Commerce Department releases delayed September data
on consumer spending and incomes and the personal consumption expenditures
index, the Fed’s primary inflation gauge. The University of Michigan will also
release its consumer survey for December on Friday.
Salesforce was
a key winner during Thursday’s session, rising nearly 4% after the software
company offered a stronger-than-expected revenue
forecast. Five Below also
rose more than 3% after the discount retailer’s earnings flew past Wall
Street’s estimates.
Stocks posted a winning session in the
prior trading day, though the AI trade continued to wobble. The tech sector was
the biggest laggard among S&P 500 sectors, dragged lower by losses in Microsoft, Nvidia and Broadcom.
Stock
market news for Dec. 4, 2025
Layoff announcements top 1.1 million this year,
the most since 2020 pandemic, Challenger says
Published Thu, Dec 4 2025 7:48 AM EST Updated
Thu, Dec 4 2025 9:20 AM EST
Announced job cuts from U.S. employers
moved further ahead of 1 million for the year in November as corporate
restructuring, artificial intelligence and tariffs have helped pare job rolls,
consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported Thursday.
The firm said layoff plans totaled 71,321
in November, a step down from the massive cuts announced in October but still
enough to bring the 2025 total up to 1.17 million. That total is 54% higher
than the same 11-month period a year ago and the highest level since 2020, when
the Covid pandemic rocked the global economy.
In November, Verizon’s
announcement that it would slash more than 13,000 jobs helped drive
the total. Tech companies, driven by innovations in artificial intelligence,
listed 12,377 reductions, pushing the sector’s 2025 total up 17% from a year
ago. AI itself has been cited for 54,694 layoffs this year.
Tariffs were cited as
the driver of more than 2,000 cuts in November and nearly 8,000 year
to date. The most-cited reason for the month was restructuring, followed by
closings and market or economic conditions.
“Layoff plans fell last month, certainly a
positive sign. That said, job cuts in November have risen
above 70,000 only twice since 2008: in 2022 and in 2008,” said Andy Challenger,
workplace expert and chief revenue officer at Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
Challenger also pointed out that since the
financial crisis in 2008, companies have shifted away from end-year layoff
announcements.
“It was the trend to announce layoff plans
toward the end of the year, to align with most companies’
fiscal year-ends. It became unpopular after the Great Recession especially, and
best practice dictated layoff plans would occur at times other than the
holidays,” said Challenger.
November offered some relief from the more
than 153,000
cuts announced in October, which was the highest total for the month
in 22 years.
The numbers come with concerns rising over
the state of the U.S. labor market.
ADP reported Wednesday that private
employers cut 32,000 jobs in November, the biggest decline in more
than 2½ years.
Hiring prospects have been dim this year
as well, according to the Challenger report. Employers have announced 497,151
planned hires, off 35% from the same point in 2024.
Despite signs of weakness elsewhere, Labor
Department data has yet to reflect a surge in layoffs.
The department on Thursday reported that
weekly jobless claims unexpectedly tumbled to 191,000, the lowest in more than
three years. Official data showed the decline of some 27,000 from the prior
week was driven by unusually large drops in California and Texas and likely was
influenced by the Thanksgiving holiday.
Layoff
announcements top 1.1 million this year, the most since 2020 pandemic,
Challenger says
In other news.
US halts plans to sanction Chinese spy agency to
maintain trade truce
Decision sparks concern among China hawks
that Donald Trump is sacrificing national security
4 December 2025
The US has halted plans to impose
sanctions on China’s Ministry of State Security over a massive cyber espionage
campaign in order to avoid derailing the trade truce President Donald Trump and
President Xi Jinping struck in October.
Current and former US officials said plans
to impose sanctions on the spy agency — and contractors it is allegedly using
to conduct a hacking campaign against US telecom networks called “Salt Typhoon”
— were put on hold to avoid undermining the US-China détente.
The administration will also not enact
major new export controls against China following the deal reached in the South
Korean city of Busan, according to several US officials and others familiar
with the situation.
Several people said the goal of the Trump
administration’s China policy had shifted to ensuring “stability” until the US
reduces China’s dominance in rare earths, which has hamstrung its ability to
take aggressive actions. Trump also does not want to jeopardise his visit to
Beijing in April.
But the decision not to impose sanctions
over Salt Typhoon, which has successfully targeted the unencrypted
communications of top US officials, has sparked frustration among China hawks
in the government who think Trump is sacrificing national security for trade
deals.
“The administration appears to be giving
ground on export controls in order to secure President Trump’s trip to Beijing
and buy time to diversify critical mineral reliance away from China,” said Zack
Cooper, an Asia security expert at the American Enterprise Institute. “I worry
that this is simply concessions masquerading as strategy.”
In another move that has triggered concern
among China hawks, the administration is preparing to hold a high-level meeting
to decide whether to provide licences to allow Nvidia to export the H200, an
advanced chip, to China, according to people briefed on the situation.
Ahead of the October summit with Xi, Trump
had suggested that he might let Nvidia sell an even more advanced chip called
the Blackwell to China, but his advisers convinced him not to make that
decision.
In
recent weeks, the administration has bolstered China policy co-ordination by
tasking Stephen Miller, deputy White House chief of staff, with ensuring that
departments do not take actions that could threaten the détente, according to
two people briefed on the development.
Copying Miller was given the role after
Treasury secretary Scott Bessent complained that he had been blindsided by a
White House memo that raised concerns about Alibaba, the Chinese tech group.
The Financial Times first reported the existence of the memo.
The memo, which was based on declassified
intelligence, said Alibaba was supporting Chinese military operations targeting
the US. Alibaba strongly rejected the claims.
Treasury and the White House did not
comment on the decision to halt planned sanctions on the MSS.
More
US halts plans to
sanction Chinese spy agency to maintain trade truce
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Taxation under every form presents but a choice of evils.
David Ricardo
Today, British socialism (neo-communism) at work. It happens every time.
British
savers pull nearly £7bn from markets in worst two months on record in Budget
havoc
4
December 2025
Savers
pulled a record £6.6billion from stock market funds in the two months ahead of
the Budget as
uncertainty ‘played havoc’.
Trading
network Calastone said £3billion was withdrawn from equity funds in November
after £3.6billion was extracted in October. They were the most severe two
months of outflows on record.
Edward
Glyn, head of global markets at Calastone, said savers were acting amid fears
of a raid on pension lump sum withdrawals or capital
gains tax.
It
brings the total taken out of share investments by UK savers over the past six
months to more than £10billion – in what was described as ‘the longest and most
severe period of selling’ ever.
In
addition to the Budget, investors have been nervous about all-time high stock
market valuations as fears grow of an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble in
the US.
But
Calastone’s data suggested clear evidence that the anxiety mainly centred on
the Chancellor’s plans.
Glyn
added: ‘The political narrative has played havoc. Never have we seen such
consistent or large-scale selling before.
‘The
sudden halt in equity-fund outflows after the Budget was delivered is clear
evidence that many investors were selling holdings as concerns rose at the
possible curtailment of pension lump sum withdrawals or further capital gains
tax hikes.
‘The
recent policy uncertainty has clearly unsettled investors and, in some cases,
prompted reactive decisions they may later regret. Savers benefit most from
clarity and consistency, so they can plan properly for long-term goals.’
A
breakdown showed November was another grim month for the London market, with
£847million pulled from UK-focused equity funds. But it was also negative for
North America-focused funds, which shed a record £812million.
The
figures revealed £1.25billion instead flowed into money market funds, which
hold low-risk investments such as government bonds.
Glyn
said: ‘It’s hard to disentangle Budget jitters from nerves about equity
valuations, but inflows to safe-haven money-market funds indicate rising risk
aversion.’
Calastone’s
findings echo those of wealth manager St James’s Place, whose chief executive,
Mark FitzPatrick, yesterday said savers had withdrawn hundreds of thousands
from pension funds amid pre-Budget speculation.
He
told the BBC: ‘People’s pensions have been damaged due to the speculation. The
flying of kites is unhelpful when it affects people’s lives.’
British savers pull nearly £7bn from markets in worst two months on record in Budget havoc
How do you tell a communist? Well, it's someone who reads Marx and Lenin. And how do you tell an anti-Communist? It's someone who understands Marx and Lenin.
Ronald Reagan
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
ROBOCOP FLOP Horror moment self-driving taxi takes passengers
into the middle of armed police standoff as cops aim guns at suspect
The
driverless taxi drove straight through the middle of a high risk felony arrest
Published: 18:19, 3 Dec 2025 Updated: 07:51, 4 Dec 2025
THIS is the shocking moment a self-driving taxi drives through the
middle of a police standoff.
The driverless car – with passengers inside – is oblivious to the
slew of armed police blocking an intersection in downtown Los Angeles.
A high risk felony arrest was taking place, with a man lying face
down on the road outside his vehicle and cops pointing guns at him.
Police said they had been pursuing the suspect in a
stolen vehicle and had not yet blocked off traffic when the Waymo approached
the stand off.
Cops can be heard shouting for the driverless car to move out of
the way, but the Waymo makes a left hand turn into the intersection in the line
of fire.
Despite the array of blue and red flashing lights the robot taxi
drives past and appears to make it safely past the police commotion.
---- A Waymo spokesperson told ABC News the
taxi came across a street blocked by police vehicles early Friday before
turning into an area that was not blocked off where other vehicles were also
traveling.
Waymo said the vehicle was in the vicinity of the event for “no
more than 15 seconds.”
“Safety is our highest priority at Waymo, both for people who
choose to ride with us and with whom we share the streets. When we encounter
unusual events like this one, we learn from them as we continue improving road
safety and operating in dynamic cities,” the spokesperson said.
More, inc. video.
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
Another
weekend and I suspect most of us won’t be taking driverless taxis anytime soon.
On the plus side though, you don’t have to tip the missing driver. Have a great
pre-Christmas weekend everyone.
In
tomorrow’s YouTube section, more forgotten British WW2 secret history, how HMS
Victory worked or didn’t regarding toilettes. Plus more excellent Vivaldi.
It is here we come to the heart of the matter. The economic
principle of comparative advantage', 'a country may, in return for manufactured
commodities, import corn even if it can be grown with less labour than in the
country from which it is imported
David Ricardo
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